I have read many articles on this subject that argue pretty forcefully that it is a bad idea to draft a high school pitcher in the first round.  Various reasons are given for this view including that HS pitchers are less likely to make it to the big leagues, the “higher upside” theory is a myth, college pitchers will get to the big leagues faster, etc.  Many of these articles are well done and offer significant data to support the opinions expressed in them.  

A trend I have seen in articles by erik at futureredbirds (link) and others is to evaluate the HS and college pitchers in the aggregate using wins above replacement (WAR) during the years that pitchers are under team control.  I agree that WAR is a fine yardstick, but I have issues with only evaluating the years a team has a pitcher under control.  This gives a natural advantage to the college pitchers as they are typically older and more mature when they reach the league.   Furthermore, it is only a valid way to analyze the value of the respective classes if you are a franchise that has no chance to retain the drafted player.  

Being a Cardinals fan, I hope ownership and management will make an effort to retain their best players.  I certainly think we have a much better chance of signing a premium pitcher that we develop than one that is available on the free agent market.  I mean, when was the last time we signed a premium FA pitcher off the free agent market?   I am pretty sure the correct answer is NEVER.  Nevertheless, I remain hopeful that Wainer will remain a both a top tier pitcher and a Cardinal beyond his existing contract.  We already have him signed to a below market contract that bought out one of his free agent years with club options for two additional years.

I prefer to look at the first round draft pick as an opportunity to acquire an elite player whether it be a pitcher or a position player.  That being said, it only makes sense to attempt to figure out where the elite pitchers actually come from.  Given the preponderance of opinions that college pitchers are safer bets and offer equal or better upside one would think the data would support that conclusion.  From the perspective I have chosen, it appears not to be the case. 

Last year I researched this question and posted my findings (link) that the best pitchers are more than twice as likely to have been drafted and signed out of High School (55%) as from college (24%).  I thought it would be a good time to review the data from a slightly different perspective than before.  In the 2008 article I looked at all active pitchers with over 1000 IPs who had ERA+ ratings of 110 or better.   I thought that was a good approach because the data was easy to find at b-r and was both park and league adjusted.  Unfortunately, I don’t think I can find similar data at b-r without a subscription, so I decided to look at fangraphs and use the top 35 pitchers in terms of WAR over the last three seasons.  I would have preferred a longer window, but it seems three years is the largest one I can select. 

The data don’t really look much different from this perspective.  There are essentially three ways for pitchers to enter the MLB system:  1) drafted from HS; 2) drafted from college; and 3) amateur free agents (mostly international players).  Of the top 35 pitchers over the last three years as determined by WAR, 18 (51.4%) were drafted from high school, 10 (28.6%) were drafted from college, and the remaining 7 (20%) were signed as amateur free agents.  This is in spite of the fact that over the last twenty drafts MLB teams have taken 59 more college pitchers in the first round than HS pitchers.  In 19 of the last 20 drafts there were at least as many college pitchers taken as HS pitchers, and in 17 of the last 20 there were more college pitchers taken.  Overall, 60% of the pitchers taken in the first round have been from college with 67% having been college picks in the last five drafts.  Since some of the HS pitchers taken have elected not to sign, the ratio of college picks to HS picks is probably somewhat higher.

Of those 28 that were actually drafted players, 10 were drafted in the first round.  Seven of these were drafted from HS and three were from college.  The HS 1st round draftees were: 

C.C Sabathia

Roy Halladay

Scott Kazmir

Cole Hamel

Matt Cain

Gil Meche

Josh Beckett. 

Interestingly enough, six of the seven HS picks were drafted with the 15th pick or later when the Cardinals are more likely to be drafting.  Most years the majority of the early picks spent on pitchers are on those from college.  The college picks were:

Mike Mussina

Justin Verlander

Jeff Francis. 

I don’t have a problem with drafting college pitchers in general, but I don’t think it is correct to say they are a better investment.  If your goal is to draft a top of the rotation type starter in the first round (what other reason could a team possibly have for drafting a pitcher in the first round?) it sure seems likely you will have better success by drafting a HS pitcher.   However, if you want to have a system that is chock full of middle relief prospects like the Cardinals, then keep drafting those safe guys.