Cardinals rumored to offer $4 mil to Wagner Mateo
by MattK on May 31, 2009 1:39 PM EDT
56 comments
Don't know if anyone saw this already or if it was discussed in a thread that I missed but the Cardinals are rumored to be offering $4 mil for the 16-year-old Mateo to sign. He is considered one of the top three prospects in the Dominican Republic.
I find it interesting that the Cardinals are willing to spend $4 mil on a 16-year-old from a country with shady birth records and not $7 mil on a top-notch high school pitcher in the first round of the draft, i.e. Porcello. Has there been a study conducted yet on burn out rates of Carribean and Latin American players? I think it would be interesting in knowing the risk of signing a 16-year-old from the DR compared to a 18-year-old high school kid from the States.
0 recs |
56 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Mateo...
is an OF, not a pitcher. And there’s an opp. cost with drafting Porcello: namely Kozma, who came in at $1.4 million.
Isn't there the opportunity cost of giving $4 mil to Mateo? That's $4 million less that we could spend somewhere else.
Not at all saying that we shouldn’t. I very much think we should. I was just trying to point out the inconsistencies in the between taking a $4 mil risk on a 16-year-old OF and bypassing an 18 year-old pitcher because he will cost $7 mil to sign. I would be very happy if they would have drafted Porcello and try to sign Mateo.
you are operating on hindsight.
At the time, is is possible that the Cards may have thought signing a cheaper player plus spending big money in the international market was better than taking a chance on a high school pitcher. It’s easy to call that move bad now knowing that the risks of spending so much money on Porcello turned out to not be a factor. You can blame the scouting, but it’s all such a crapshoot.
At this rate, anyone but possibly the Rays should be kicking themselves, not just the Cards.
Of course this move has yet to be made, I don’t really know if it’s a good one since I know nothing about international players.
I am not saying the move is bad...
I just don’t see the differences in the risk being all that different for there to be a reason for one move and not the other. Maybe I am just not explaining myself well which is a huge possibility.
it makes sense.
but then again, it’s not like we’re holding out on other talented players because we don’t have money. We have an excess amount of cash, and all that are on the trading block are past cy young award winners and utility players that are better than some of are starters.
So you might as well spend this money somewhere since there aren’t any “win while Albert is in his prime” options out there.
On with the (good) youth movement!
Judging from this video
he looks 16, maybe 17 or 18 at the most…(in response to the “shady birth records” statement above).
I didn't mean to say that he isn't 16.
I was just trying to compare the risk involved with signing a 16-year-old from the DR and a high school pitcher in the states. I guess I didn’t do a very good job.
Oh, I understand...
But (and I didn’t say this before), my job is with middle school aged kids and I get to see these kids throughout their high school years as well, and he looks the right age.
This sort of thing is very exciting to me.
Who knows if any of these guys will turn out, but the Cards need to be in on these talent markets. Also, I agree with guayzimi and hazel that the comparison to Porcello is a little unfair. Position players are a much safer bet than starting pitchers, especially highschool pitchers. Also, aren’t there issues in the draft that don’t come up in these international signing? Slot values and whatnot?
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
TINSTAAPP
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 31, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree whole heartedly that the Cardinals need to be in these markets.
Position players are a safer bet than pitchers, especially high school pitchers. But do we really know the risk of signing a16-year-old position player? I don’t have the answer to this question. It would a be a great study for someone to do. I am sure most Major League teams have this info, at least they should. It seems to me that two years of development in your teens both physically and mentally can make a world of difference.
I am all for the Cardinals signing as much talent as they can. I just think its contradictory for the Cardinals to pass on Porcello because the risk is too high then try to sign a 16 year old for $4 mil.
As for slot values, they are recommendations from Major League Baseball and are in no way binding.
Good points
I guess when we’re talking about that kind of age it’s on the extreme side of things and is harder to say for sure it’s a safer bet. Also, we hear and talk a lot about the important of certain development years from the late teens to the early twenties, especially for things like velocity and power, but who knows what happens to a superb athlete between 16 and 18 or 19.
Also I totally wish we had signed Porcello, but unlike a lot of people here I can’t claim any sort of original thought on it because I wasn’t very prospect savvy at all until very recently when I made an effort to pay more attention to that stuff.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
My GOD!
He was born in ‘93?!? I’m OLD…..
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on May 31, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
In addition:
Kid has got a pretty swing, but I’d be more impressed with his arm if was throwing those balls into plastic buckets.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
getting old blows
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
'94 for me
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jun 1, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
96 in the hizzie fo shizzie
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I owned Golfmoor Little League as an 11 year old in 96
You guys are crusty
Mang Says...
"There is no "I" in team, or in B g Mac Land, either."
I'm all for getting this guy, especially if he's got speed
but if we are going to go for one of these guys, we should get Sano, a SS. Every year in recent memory has been trying get through a surplus of OF. We never have a SS in the minors. Thats why I think Sano makes more sense. But if I had to choose, Id say both. They could both turn into the next Pujols. And having 3 Pujols on one team would be amazing.
well, when discussing a 16 y/o
you have to remember that he probably isn’t making the bigs for 3-4 years. By the 2013 season, the only current outfielder who we’d probably definitely expect to be on the roster for sure would be Rasmus. Ludwick, Duncan, Schu, Ankiel—all these guys may have moved on by then.
Of course, a SS would still be preferable in my mind too, and I will very openly admit that I don’t know a thing about any of these guys, but I’m just happy to see the Cardinals getting involved in adding depth to the farm by all means available.
True
So in 2013 if everything goes well would be Jones, Rasmus, and Mateo in the outfield, and hopefully a successful Kozma and Wallace at short and third. The our only whole on offense would be 2B. I’m just realizing how much potenctial of our farm in the near future. Although I doubt everything will go that perfect.
Mateo/Rasmus/Jones outfield?
Infield of Pujols/Vasquez(I dunno, whatevs)/Sano/Wallace.
Back to back to back to back World Series victories, book it!
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
Another reason to like these signings.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
pick me ill play for 50000
and have more output then kozma
no, you won't
thanks for playing though.
TRADE FOR DEROSA!!!
"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs," Carpenter said. "That is a fact."
i never want to hear the name Porcello again
i doubt that will happen though
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I like it...
Look around the league at all the teams with the highly rated farm systems and they all have something in common: They spend a lot of money scouting Latin America. The Braves, Marlins, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers all spend insane amounts of money scouting down there and finding kids like this one, signing them early, and adding more and more talent free of the draft to the minor league system.
The Cardinals have shown increasing interest in scouting and signing kids from Latin America since Jeff Luhnow took over, showing that our front office truly is starting to “get it” in terms of scouting talent and building talent from within by using all the possible routes for procuring talent. With the De La Cruz signing last year, Niko Vasquez the year before, coming up just short on a couple of guys last fall, and now with this (rumored) signing, the team is adding a lot of talent outside of the draft and taking chances on players with great tools.
As far as comparing it to Porcello, I don’t think that’s fair at all. Sure, we could have both Rick Porcello and Phil Hughes in our minor league system right now, but we also might have a bunch of other guys in our system like Mark Hamilton instead of Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, and Brett Wallace. If you’ve listened to Luhnow’s interviews its obvious that his first priority was to improve the depth and talent in the minor league system by all means necessary since this team was moving in a new direction by building more from within. He’s done that by taking high upside players who also have limited risks. If you look at some of the players who didn’t fit the mold of Luhnow’s drafts it was Pete Kozma and Mark Hamilton, players who were not at the top of Luhnow’s board but were taken by the front office. This guy knows what he’s doing, and I think that now that the minor league talent pool has improved, the front office will be more willing to listen. I also think that he’s going to take a few more risks on big upside players in the next few drafts and I’m thinking that some of those will be starting pitchers — they just have to fit the profile of what the organization is looking for.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I love what they have been doing in the draft and in Latin America.
I think they have done a tremendous job. I just thought that the risk between the two players is similar but a leap was taken on one and not the other. At the time of the draft, I remember the Cards FO passing on Porcello due to the signing bonus and that’s all. If it hadn’t been for the money, I feel like they would have taken him. Maybe I am pulling an Andy Pettitte and ‘mis-remembering’ but I feel like this was the case. Fast forward two years and they are trying to sign a 16-year-old who probably has the risk that a high school pitcher in the draft does for $4 mil. The risk vs. reward to me is the same in both cases.
I can see why they were trying to build depth since the farm system was an utter disaster before Luhnow took over. I just wish they would take the best available talent available in the first couple of rounds, damn the cost. If it really was the higher ups who chose Kozma instead of Luhnow making the pick then shame on they for not letting Luhnow do the job he was hired to do.
I didn’t make the comparison in the OP to slight Kozma. I hope he becomes a good everyday regular for the Cards. God knows they need it. I just was commenting on a perceived inconsistency in their strategy. Thats all.
not just the bonus...
… Porcello also demanded a major-league contract and got it from the Tigers.
the bonus was only $3.5mn.
You've been misinformed on Porcello though...
He wanted a major league contract plus his signing bonus. As kindred says below, his signing bonus was only $3.5M but probably would have been higher had he been taken higher in the draft by us. The team balked at offering a major league contract to an 18 year old kid when they were paying less for Wainwright at the time.
Case in point: Jeff Samardzjia — dude got a $10M contract, with a full no-trade clause, from the Cubs when they took him with their first round pick a few years ago. They were concerned he was going to play football in the NFL, which wasn’t likely, so they gave him big money. He hasn’t performed up to his expectations at the big league level so far and they can’t deal him to the Padres for Peavy, who would help them immensely, because he would nix the trade with his no-trade clause.
While Porcello didn’t have a no-trade clause, he was essentially untradeable because of his contract situation (another contract casualty: Kei Igawa of the Yankees) and if he gets hurt, the Tigers are out a whole lot of money that they could have been paying a productive veteran on their 2006 World Series team. It’s high risk, high reward obviously, but I’d really rather take that with a position player than I would a high school pitcher — the flame-out rate for high school pitchers is just too high.
Position players, especially five tool ones like Mateo, are less injury prone and can be productive players at the major league level in a number of ways. Plus, it’s only a signing bonus so we’ll owe him no money going forward after the initial payment. if he doesn’t make it we’re just out the initial $4.5M which is about what it takes to sign the top talent from Latin America these days. You’ll recall that the Cardinals were in on another, similar player from Venezuela (I believe) earlier in the offseason and were outbid by three other teams.
All that said, the key for me is that I’m confident in Luhnow’s scouting ability. He really hasn’t missed on very many players, and some of the players he’s taken in the late rounds out of high school have moved up draft boards coming out of college in the last two drafts. It’s clear to me that he knows what he’s doing and that the organization is much more comfortable following his lead with guys like Lynn, Kopp, Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, and Perez in hand.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ok hypothetical....
I know this is hindsight but bear with me. Let’s say we took Porcello over Kozma. What is the highest amount of money that he turns down that you say " fuck it, let him go to college or re-enter the draft? Or would you ever even consider drafting a HS pitcher in the first round?
It's not the money
that’s what I’m saying. You had to commit a roster spot on your 40 man roster to an 18 year old kid who’s never pitched above high school. I’m sorry, but if my farm system is in decent shape, I really don’t want to be burning a spot on my 40 man for a high school pitcher.
His signing bonus was $3.5M, which is reasonable, I would have paid that. But he also demanded a major league contract, which is where I have to draw the line. No high school pitcher is worth losing a productive AAA player considering the flame out rate for pitchers in general, and especially for high school pitchers.
I would consider drafting a high school pitcher in the first round, as long as he had great tools, wasn’t abused with pitch counts in high school, had phenomenal stuff (which he should if he’s a first rounder), and didn’t have huge signability issues. You know, like one Philip Hughes, who we passed on to take Chris "F***ing) Lambert. I’d much rather have that one back than Kozma for Porcello.
To answer your question though, if we took Porcello instead of Kozma, you have to sign him. Letting him go to college is not an option. You must sign your #1 pick and damn the consequences of it. You don’t mess around like the Nationals did with Aaron Crow. Had they signed him last year like they should have, they’d have both him and Strasburg in their rotation within the next couple of years.
You also hope that your first round pick doesn’t then turn out to be Chris “F***ing” Lambert when you just dropped a few million dollars in his pocket. This is why I’m much more apt to take draft position players in the first round, take college pitchers later, and then shop around for free agent pitching or make a trade from someone else’s pitching prospects. Just seems like a better overall draft strategy than trying to find the Roy Halladay’s of the world amongst the Chris Lambert’s.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Jun 3, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the reply.
I should have put a caveat in the question of “if Porcello didn’t want a MLB contract” but you answered what I was asking so thank you. I always like to get other people’s opinions when I am trying to refine my own. I think it helps to work through your own personal logic on a issue.
To address a couple of posts ago, I did forget Porcello wanted a MLB contract to sign so that changes my thinking of him a little bit. I wonder if he could have been bought out of that idea with a larger signing bonus but we’ll never know. I do wish we would have taken someone with a little more upside than Kozma but I digress.
Yah...I agree on Kozma
But that really was the big need in the organization at the time, and you have to remember that we also didn’t know that we were going to sign Niko Vazquez yet either (I think that’s true, but it might not be).
Also, look at the draft, especially the next 10 picks after the Cardinals. None of those guys, save Porcello, is rated above a C in any of the minor league systems that they’re in right now. Kozma is around a C based on glove alone and we just have to hope that he’s going to hit at some point. Hopefully he does, but I can’t see anyone else back there that I would take in hindsight, even based on the information in their first two pro seasons.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i remember a lot of clamoring for Josh Smoker...
… from Cards fans. but yeah, it’s pretty shocking that nobody else taken after Kozma looks like much, save Porcello and maybe Poreda. that’s a weak draft. (and that Mortensen pick looks pretty good.)
And there'd be more pissing and moaning from those same people
had we actually taken Smoker as he hasn’t amounted to much at all. That was a really piss poor draft for the back end of the first round to be that bare of any talent only 2 years later.
Totally agree on Mortensen, when you look at the players surrounding him on either side by 10 picks he looks like a diamond in the rough.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Vasquez
He was drafted in the 3rd round last year. He’s from the Vegas area.
by Merry CRasmus on Jun 3, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Pick Me!!!!
Hey wait a minute, i was born in 1993, i have an 83 mph fastball… wanna give me 4 million dollars
One thing to consider
is that Wagner Mateo has an awesome and interesting name. The mixture of Germanic and Hispanic names intrigues me. (I noticed that there seem to be a lot of Cuban and other Caribbean/Latin American guys running around with about three Y’s and two K’s in their names. Am I the only one who has noticed that?)
Anyway, to pay homage to the composer Wagner’s best known piece, I suggest that if we sign this kid we call him Project Valkyrie. Or maybe ¡El Proyecto Valkyrie! Signing Wagner is probably not as bad as it sounds.
There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".
by mattybobo on Jun 3, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Risks Involved
I’ve never been one to be sold on high school kids, especially pitchers.
Kids throw out their arms way too early and its not worth the risk.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
