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Around SBN: UFC 146 Predictions

Random May Facts

As May draws to a close, it’s no secret that the offense has struggled this month after being especially potent in the first month of the season. Some of that, inarguably, is a result of the injury to Ludwick. Ankiel’s injury may have played a role as well but, let’s face it, he wasn’t exactly knocking the cover off the ball before he was hurt. So here are some random offensive facts about the team as we sit here on the penultimate day of May.

Team batting:

BA OBP SLG
April .285 .369 .450
May .225 .293 .387

As a team, we’ve taken 32 fewer walks in May than in April and we have 6 fewer extra base hits. The team’s BABIP is down 75 points in May, from .314 in April to .239. It’s reasonable to believe, therefore, that some of the offensive slump is attributable to bad luck.

Our 3B:

Thurston BA OBP SLG
April .278 .371 .407
May .217 .338 .400
since April 27 .197 .321 .352

Barden BA OBP SLG
April .385 .432 .641
May .130 .200 .239
since April 28 .132 .190 .226

Brendan Ryan is 19th in the majors among shortstops w/ 70+ PAs in wOBA, right behind Adam Everett.

Team batted ball data:

LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB
April 19.5 42.2 38.3 10.2 9.8
May 18.0 46.5 35.6 8.4 11.9

What’s noticeable about the batted ball data is that we’ve hit fewer line drives and fly balls and more grounders in May than April. There’s one reason the BA has fallen so precipitously. It’s also noticeable that we seem to be slightly lucky in May w/ regard to the number of fly balls that have left the ballpark. 10% is about average across the majors and we were right on that in April but in May we’re about 2% above that. That may be due to our schedule and park effects in the 2 months as much as anything.

Plate discipline data:

O-swing% Z-swing% Swing% O-contact% Z-contact% Contact% Zone%
April 25.1 68.5 45.7 58.5 89.4 80.5 47.6
May 26.4 68.3 47.7 59 86.4 78.9 50.9

Considering the fact that we have taken so many fewer walks in May than April, it should come as no surprise that our swing % is 2% higher in May than it was in April. Even so, the team is swinging at a higher % of the pitches they’re seeing outside the zone as well – up 1.3% from April. In May, no team has seen a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone than the Cards have, at 50.9%. This tells me that teams do not fear our hitters right now – and why should they considering the way we’ve been hitting? They’re throwing more strikes to us and, as evidenced by the fall in the z-contact%, we’re making contact on strikes less frequently than in April. So, we’ve seen more pitches in the zone in May but made contact less frequently. We’re swinging at more pitches outside the zone as well. Ok, so the decline in our BABIP isn’t all bad luck.

I checked BP to see try and figure out the quality of pitchers we’ve faced this year. Unfortunately, you can’t break that data up by month but you can get some sense of it based on Ludwick’s numbers relative to the rest since he has twice as many April PAs as May PAs. Among 280 major league hitters w/ 90+ PAs so far this season, 5 of 10 Cardinals are in the top half of all hitters in pitchers’ OBP against – meaning those pitchers have yielded the highest OBPs in the majors. (Low numbers mean weakest pitchers faced.) The rank is out of 280 hitters.

pitchers’ OBP against
Ankiel 54
Duncan 68
Pujols 79
Skip 92
Barden 138
Thurston 142
Ludwick 158
Rasmus 161
K. Greene 253
Molina 261

More bad luck for Greene, huh? He’s faced some of the toughest pitching in the big leagues this year. Based on Ludwick’s numbers, it seems as though we faced tougher pitching in April than in May. You can’t say that for certain but Ludwick had 79 PAs in April and had, before last night, 39 in May – a 2:1 ratio. Considering the fact that Pujols has faced much weaker pitching than Ludwick and he has many more May PAs, I would guess that the pitching we’ve faced this month has been weaker than the pitching we faced in April. That’s disappointing, to say the least.

Finally, there was some pretty good discussion yesterday about the abysmal bullpen construction so far this season. To wit:

  • Since being acquired, Blaine Boyer has pitched in 13 out of a possible 31 games. He’s thrown 10.2 IP. I understand liking the guy’s stuff, but if they’re not going to use him, why did we acquire him?
  • Brad Thompson’s spent the bulk of the season on the 25 man roster and has thrown a total of 14.2 IP. He last pitched on May 17 – almost 2 weeks ago. He pitched exactly 1 time while Ryan Ludwick was on the DL yet was on the roster the duration.
  • Chris Perez, too, has thrown just 14.2 IP for the season. Between he, Thompson, and Boyer, that’s a grand total of 40 innings (.833 per game) – fewer than Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte combined.
  • Finally, 5 times the Cards have used pitchers to pinch hit – 2nd most in the NL behind the Reds. Micah Owings has pinch hit 7 times this year, w/ 2 doubles and a home run. Only 1 of the Cards’ pitchers’ 5 PH attempts did we sacrifice a runner over. Besides the Cards and Micah Owings, NL pitchers have only pinch hit 10 times this season. Wouldn’t it be nice to have an extra position player on the roster to pinch hit when we needed it? BTW, Cards’ pitchers’ are 0-4 w/ 3 Ks in pinch hitting appearances.

Late game again tonight. Hopefully this one turns out a little better.

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They say that hitting is contagious, but so is slumping, I guess. Now this obviously doesnt apply to normal humans, but Albert only batted .291 w/ 1 homer while Ludwick was gone. Average wisse that’s pretty good for most players. I’d love to have a couple of other guys hit .280 right now. But we need Albert to hit his normal .333 with some power. But if we never have anyone on base it doesnt really matter. ALbert hitting a solo shot to lead off an inning every 3 games is not a winner. I’d really like the Cards to bite the bullet this year and get a couple hitters. We’re stinking it up at ss,3b, and the whole outfield. There has to be some improvement that can be made. If theyre wanting to wait on Wallace I’m ok with that. I’m not sure that he’s developed enought to be the impact bat yet. No point in bringing him up so he can join in the .230 parade but there has to be something we can do to improve this offense. It’s really frustrating to watch this team only score 2 or 3 runs each game. Earlier in the season we could have overcome the 4 run deficit and took that game last night. We need a bat or two to stay in the race all year.
Having said that, man I’d like to get Matt Cain.

by boba schrute on May 30, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Albert's pressing

when they don’t walk him, he’s trying to do too much, since no one else is doing much

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blaine Boyer is here

Because Adam Wainwright put him on his secret santa list.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 30, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I've only seen a small sample size, but it seems like Perez

is being brought in to pitch less than 1 inning. I’m not sure why. Maybe TLR is working on his confidence? Making him look good for trade bait ‘cause he’s already picked Sauce?

by sdrone on May 30, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Along that line

I’d love to see how many appearances of less than an inning our relievers have. (Maybe I’ll look at that.) I’d also probably look at other HOF and non-HOF managers in this regard. I, too, have noticed it with Perez. With the LOOGYs, it makes sense. That’s why they are on the roster, after all, to be lefty one-out guys.

Having WunderBrad on the roster makes absolutely no sense. Bolster the bench!

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 30, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

al had a pretty reasonable thought on this point last night, that if the leading alternatives for the 25th spot on the roster are shane robinson and tyler greene, then you really can’t bolster the bench. as it is, if games are being decided by the 25th man on the roster, then the team has bigger problems to tackle… it would be nice if la russa would get out of this habit of ‘saving’ a position player for the 13th inning (which is not likely to happen) by pinch hitting with wainwright in the 7th.

by greenback06 on May 30, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

"al had a pretty reasonalbe thought" = impossible

although, I kind of agreed with him yelling at Colby to get off his lawn on that triple by Fred Lewis.

Al really seems to hate Brendan Ryan though. after the shallow pop up that Rasmus caught and the way he was “dancing around” during his lead, I thought Al was going to put him over his knee after the game and give him the belt.

Almost all of the collisions or near collisions seem to involve Rasmus. Is he not loud enough? Does he call for it too late? Ryan looked pissed at him after the above mentioned pop up.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn't seem like Colby communicates well on the field

wheher it’s balls in the outfield, motioning to runners at first to go to second when the ball gets away from the ctahcer and Colby is at bat, etc. A time or two here and there will happen but it’s starting to become a trend.

by Willie McGee's Twin on May 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

He and Ludwick nearly had a nasty collision (a near miss!)

at the start of the year.

I didn’t like the look he gave Ryan yesterday. I’m kind of afraid he might be a douche.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's the fear that I am trying to suppress.

at least he cut his hair, that should get Al off his case a day or two.

If Colby and Ryan did collide in the outfield, I think Al’s head would explode after trying to decide which kid to tell to get off his lawn…on second thought, maybe that’s what we need to happen?

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Albert

I vote the Mang sits down and talks to him. He’s passionate about the game.

This is pure speculation, but Colby has been such an organizational darling for so long, Albert may not feel he has the right to mess with TLR’s special projects.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on May 30, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Only thing I can think of;

that makes sense; is that he there to increase his trade value.

by Evilfrog on May 30, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

New VEB motto

“Bolster the bench!”

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on May 30, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Are we embracing "Bolster the Bench"

at the expense of “Viva La Plate Appearance” or in addition to it? Just trying to get my memes straight around here.

by cardsgirl95 on May 30, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm only throwing out a hypothetical here

but if it is indeed the case that the organization has more or less deemed one preferable (Motte) and one expendable (Perez), would you agree with that assignment of designations. That is, if you knew you would likely have to trade one, which one would you be more willing to let go? I love Motte’s heat, but Perez just looks like he has wicked stuff that he can keep refining and perfecting as he matures…last night, that fastball that kind of rises and explodes to the plate looked absolutely nasty, if still lacking a little control. I’m not that close a follower of all this stuff, so is there a general consensus on these boards about which would be better to keep? (again, assuming the org is willing to let one dangle as trade bait but not the other)

by mattyp on May 30, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I prefer Motte.

Perez walks a lot of batters.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Now that Motte

got his velocity back, I agree.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

He’s dating Taye Diggs. That’s what happened.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Look at their May Numbers

Perez: 9.39K/9, 8.22BB/9, 1.14 K/BB
Motte: 9.00K/9, 3.00BB/9, 3.00K/BB

That 8+ walk rate makes me sick. K/BB is my stat of choice for judging relievers. 2.0BB/K is a good line. 3.0BB/K is closer country.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Motte's "true" strikeout rate is likely much higher than that

It was a 11.57 in AA two years ago, 14.85 in AAA last year, and 13.09 in limited time in the majors last year.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

seeing how BPs can go from great to awful from year to year

you have to be careful to label a good cheap BP arm like these guys as expendable just because they might not be necessary currently.

Dominant relievers receive quite hefty contracts, so these guys could be very good values in the future years, not to mention get much more in return.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd

love to keep both, but the Cardinals will likely trade one.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

what makes you say that?

I’ve not heard much in the way of trade talks involving either.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like you

said: they’ve got a lot of value, now and in the future. If not one of Perez or Motte, then perhaps Todd will be traded. I just have a hunch.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mo was quoted

The other day saying that the Indians were asking for a Motte/Perez type pitcher. for DeRossa.

by nybirdfan on May 30, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

hmmm

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it just me or does that seem steep for not even a full year of a super utility guy?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

It does to me

For a guy that possibly would be a Win or Two upgrade over what we currently have. It seems really fucking expensive. Right now has been worth less than Barden + Thurston > DeRosa.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Myself, I don't know

I think Perez might be more valuable ‘cause he has 2 pitches (Lidge style). But I’m just making it up as I go along.

I think what I’m saying is we don’t have enough data to make a decision.

That said, if Mo thinks he can get something awesome, I’d give up either one of ’em.

by sdrone on May 30, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's all a wash to me

If either can get something helpful in return, then I will be fine with whomever is left behind.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

I’ve noticed that about perez too…. Tony isn’t very confident in him I think. he needs to pitch more though

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

He may not be confident in him...

because he walks too many hitters. Don’t get me wrong, I like Perez’s stuff, but he simply has to cut down on the walks if he wants Tony to trsut him in high-leverage situations.

by Willie McGee's Twin on May 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Great Post, Chuck

I was working on an “Offensive May” Fanpost. No need now.

As an aside, does anyone know what metric(s) FanGraphs use(s) to measure defensive WAR?

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 30, 2009 10:08 AM EDT reply actions  

its not the penultimate day of may

i still have today and tomorrow before i have to turn in my abstract. thank goodness.

by krippledmaster on May 30, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Penultimate

means next to last.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lohse iffy for his next start

If he doesn’t make it, we can just retroactively DL him, right? This is worrisome to see for a pitcher in the first year of a 4-year contract…

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on May 30, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

you think with a guy as durable as lohse maybe we won't be snakebitten by signing him to a long term contract

but so far it’s just been fluke injury after fluke injury. It’s really kept him from getting on a roll this season.

He is a tough guy though, hopefully this is something he can get through quickly and not have to be DLed.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even with all the extra BP arms

doesn’t it seem like when it gets to extra innings all we ever have left is Thompson?

Some games there is are never enough arms to keep up w/ TLR’s BP management.

This team does need to trim it’s redundant parts, Joey Bombs played a game for the Redbirds last night, so there is hope!

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Some games there is are never enough arms to keep up w/ TLR’s BP management.

No kidding.

LaRussa seems to get so tunnel-visioned (is that a word? sure.) about L/R and pitcher vs. hitter matchups and all that gobbly gook that he blows through relief pitchers. There was a four-run game earlier this season where, with two outs no less, TLR ran out to the pen to grab Reyes to face one lefty, all with two outs in a 4 run game. I believe you would call that wrestling a game into the ground.

I think if TLR were to streamline his bullpen use a little bit, the 7-man pen would work fine. Thompson is just out there collecting dust.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any idea how

other teams use their #24 and #25 roster slots? I’ll look at that when I get time, but have to do my wife’s bidding for a while first.

by StanTheManFan on May 30, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Good news is there is no possible way we couldl sustain a .239 BABIP

I would say that is the main reason for our slump.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah

that is encouraging

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No Thurston talk?

Cause you all were talking up a storm last night about him. Honestly you guys were getting on my nerves. You sounded like Cub fan’s the way you were talking about him. No Stats and nothing to backup your arguments, ie Cub Fans.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

YOU'RE a Cubs fan

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you mean like

Only you can stop Joe Thurston from playing every day

/Sorry gdm

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

hilarious

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Still funny.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Showing up dressed as a Bear

Isn’t convincing me your not a Cub’s fan

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Im asking is this the post you

were talking about in your OP

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No it was mostly the DFA talk

Than when I brought up the fact he has the 6th highest OPS on the team which is higher than Rasmus’s it was ignored. Mostly the irrational thought directed at Thurston for no reason at all. Complaining that he can’t hit so we should get the worst hitting 3B in baseball to replace him (Beltre). With the only argument being the gambler’s fallacy of regression to the mean.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welcome to game threads.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

at this point

I’m willing to bet $1M internet dollars that Craig could have, at minimum, the 6th highest OPS on this team.

As bad as Ankiel started this season, he has a higher OPS than Rasmus.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well its not just his offense

Raz’s defense is much better than Joe’s 3B defense, and ill admit Joe does seem like the whipping boy for our team while Raz gets the benefit of the doubt, it just seems that no matter what Thursty does he plays and i think thats why everyone picks on him

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

With the Outfield healthy now

I’m hoping TLR goes back to the 4 man rotation. As much as people seemed to hate it, that’s when the offense led the NL in runs scored

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I hope its a 3 man rotation

with a permanent spot reserved for Ludwick

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

ageed

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is my biggest beef

That he is just the whipping boy for everything that is going wrong. When he is not even playing that bad. I think he is getting overexposed for sure but I am happy that he is on this team.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

My problem is with Thurston is him starting at 3B

Overall Barden is just a few ticks behind Thurstons OPS but Barden is far better with the glove according to UZR.

I don’t dislike Thurston I dislike how Tony is using him. He doesn’t hit for any power and is a below avg defender at 3B. So I ask why play him at 3B when Barden provides similar offense and a better glove.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

no worries

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

by gdm426 on May 30, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think any of us REALLY hate Thurston

but when Thurston is your starting 3B, it is a bit frustrating.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

with the bases loaded

I hadn’t even finished saying “ok Thurston, just don’t swing at the first p….” and any hopes of 2-out runs were gone.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

if only I could find out how many times he swings at the first pitch

…..don’t make me look too long you people who already know where it is

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

24 of 137 first pitches put in play

that doesn’t count fouls or swings and misses.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 30, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thurston is sporting an nice OBP. He takes a lot of walks. Can we try hitting him 2nd in the line-up at least a few times?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is my thought

Thurston has speed and a good OBP while Barden is a better slugger and glove. Thurston is good if we need someone on in front of Pujols and Barden is good if you need someone to knock in Pujols.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Makes sense to me. But throw in the glove and I think Barden should get the nod at 3B.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

might as well just platoon them

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or you could play the guy with the similar bat and better glove who also fits in better in the lower end of the order all of the time.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ryan?

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 31, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

i can't tell if your joking or not

having read the entire thread i’m going to say it’s 50/50.

OK, you want numbers? did you see his #‘s chuck posted above? since april 27, the past month, dude’s hitting .197 .321 .352.

now come on, you don’t really expect a team leading their division, scratching & clawing for every single run to be trotting that line out ever damn day as their starting 3rd basemen? no, no reasonable fan would not. yet there goes Tony throwing him out there day after day after day.

i’m really insulted about the flubs fan part. but i’m willing to let it slide just this once. you don’t have to be a numbers geek to know he sucks right now & he’ll never be as good as he was a month ago. that’s one thing i don’t like about stat guys, if your argument is filled with game observations, like last night he weakly grounded out with the bases loaded on the first pitch when it was clear Cain was losing his control. he obviously should have taken a pitch or two, worked the count in his favor & gotten a pitch to do some damage with. yet he didn’t, and he hasn’t done that all month. and that’s just one reason why he should not be on the team. but that argument is shot down because i didn’t include his RBI’s, OBP, WAR, NCAA, NAACP, & OPEC numbers. but those don’t tell the whole story. i don’t understand why stat guys push for none stat guys to accept their point of view, but when a perfectly valid argument is presented without any numbers, they are shot down as foolish & archaic & have no merit simply because it did not include the latest statistical numbers. that’s a blatant double standard & it’s wrong.

he should be DFA’d. he has no biz playing for a division leading team. i don’t care how many f’ing walks he gets, when all you do is walk or make an out, you are pretty freaking useless. you are not setting the table, you are not driving in runs. you are taking up space & wasting a roster spot. he’s not doing anyting Barden, Boog, or Skippy can’t do. and that’s the real problem. we already have way too many lite hitting MIF’s. we don’t need one at what is supposed to be a power position. others pointed out his D is also highly overrated considering he bounces every other throw to first & has done his best to get Albert hurt.

all things considered, he had one good month. that’s it. he’ll never again have another one. i’m grateful for that April, but it’s time for him to go. he’s a great American & a fine upstanding person. but he is no longer capable of being a starting 3rd basemen. he’s just like a million other flash in the pan players. it’s time for MO to cut the cord & get a real 3rdbasemen.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

by gdm426 on May 30, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah!

Ditto for our centerfielder.

Last night he hit a weak fly ball into center field with no outs and a runners on 2nd and 3rd. (same inning our three bagger failed with bases loaded.) And then in the 4th inning with runners on first and second with 1 out he gives up on a very catchable fly ball that bounce off for an RBI double. A second run would late score.

by Evilfrog on May 30, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love you gdm, but you said a lot of wrong this in that comment
since april 27, the past month, dude’s hitting .197 .321 .352.

Thurstons hitting this month, like almost our entire team, has suffered from a very low BABIP. Thurston has been no exception, with a .231 BABIP this month. His walk rate has been excellent, and he is even hitting for a little power. I certainly wouldn’t use that slashline as evidence that Thurston sucks, and even if Tony probably doesn’t know/care about BABIP, I would think that he can sense that he’s been unlucky this month.

if your argument is filled with game observations, like last night he weakly grounded out with the bases loaded on the first pitch when it was clear Cain was losing his control. he obviously should have taken a pitch or two, worked the count in his favor & gotten a pitch to do some damage with

It’s actually better to swing more often after a pitcher has thrown a lot of balls in a row. The reason being that he will give the next hitter more hittable pitches just so he can avoid walking more hitters. You can read more about it in this thread.
he should be DFA’d. he has no biz playing for a division leading team. i don’t care how many f’ing walks he gets, when all you do is walk or make an out, you are pretty freaking useless.

He’s not making outs. Even if you use his horrible BABIP deflated line after April 27th, he’s still getting on base at a solid clip, when our entire offense has struggled. He’s not useless either; he gets on base and plays solid defense. He shouldn’t be starting for a team with playoff aspirations like the Cards, but given all of the injuries, he’s our only option and he’s playing pretty damn well.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Random May Facts: Relievers

66.2 IP (3rd Lowest in MLB),
2.57ERA (1st)
HBP 6 (2nd Highest)
7.56K/9
3.51BB/9
2.15 K/BB (6th Best)
.203 Avg
.246 BABIP (2nd Lowest)
82.2 % LOB
3.88 FIP
ERA – FIP (-1.32 4th Lowest)
18.2 % Infield Fly Ball (highest)

 

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions  

You mean someone

has used their BP less than us!

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

our pitching as a whole has been excellent this month

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think everyone knew the starters were pitching well so I took them out

The Infield Fly Ball rate is what stands out to me the most. I am not exactly sure what to make of it. But I like to think it means they are keep hitters off balance and they are popping up 2 Seamers which should be hit on the ground. By their low Z-Strike rate of 61.6 %(lowest MLB) seems to prove that rate.

They are not swinging at our pitches inside the zone.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

3B Question:

Can a Wallace/Craig platoon be worse than the current Thursty/Barden one?

If you want to sub Mather into the former, I’m okay with that too.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on May 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I honestly don't expect Mather up this year

Wrist injuries tend to sap ones power and take a long time to heal from

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thurston and Barden are playing pretty well

Considering defense, it’s unlikely that Craig/Wallace will do that much better.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could care less about 3B defense at this point.

being stong at SS now should allow them to go for somebody with more offensive upside at the hot corner.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think youll start to care

if an errant throw from 3B sends Pujols into the baseline and he gets knocked out for an extended period of time

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Joe Thurston has never put APu's career in danger

neither has Skip

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

damn it

from now on people should just accept the fact that the ’ * ’ just disappears on its own sometimes

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are we watching the same Thurston?

It seems like Albert has to backside at least two of Thurston’s throws a game. That’s pretty worrisome.

/semi-casual observation with no basis in data

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are the best kinds of observations

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

And dont they scare the hell out of you

wouldn’t you like it to get better?

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only way it would get substantially better

is if Glaus gets touched by Jesus’ healing hands, or they trade for Beltre and his $99B contract. I would be ok with either a Craig call up or a DeRosa trade at this point.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know a trade is going to happen this season

I think we have like 57 guys that will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they are not put on the 40 man roster by December of 2009. With only 10 spots open for them.(Probably not even 10 spots that is just minus all our Free Agents).

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope Mo's ear is sore from all the phone calls he's making.

would be easier if offense wasn’t a problem organization wide. What is the asking price for DeRosa anyway?

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think

I have a problem with that.
(assuming you mean either 1 of those or 1 of Motte/Perez + Boggs)

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I might even like DeRosa going forward.

Assuming he doesn’t ask for a ridiculous amount of money, his versitality would allow them to give Wallace a chance in 2010.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like him for our mandatory

Utility INF who plays every game

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

that’s makes it easier to handle

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

hopefully that is just a starting point

if the Indians continue to suck, it has to come down. They have to get something out of him

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

A run saved is just as valuable as a run scored

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is true

but I bet the third baseman comes up to bat with more opportunities to score a run than he gets to save a run. I could be wrong with this assumption, but holy hell does the offense suck right now.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would have needed to finish my masters in statistics

to understand what the hell you just said
(no offense meant, I just prefer to think of a spread as a feast or when gambling)

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he is trying to say

A run saved is equal to a run earned

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hate to say this

But not in the public eye. A hitter is seen as more valuable than a defender.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree (actually it's starting to even out a little with zone ratings)

but that wasn’t really the point of STLRegalia’s concern.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am STLRegalia's public eye

and logic doesn’t resonate with me. I feel like a chick, because I would be digging me some long ball.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Gosh, weren't you paying attention the last month?

We clearly established that “could care less” means that you care. So you do care about 3B defense. Deceiver!

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on May 30, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

catch-22

Do you swap the good D/bad hitting for bad D/good hitting? I don’t know honestly. They need to get Beltre, I guess, or have Glaus’s body work, like, yesterday.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather have the defense

with good OBP if available, but i could live with awesome D bad hitting (Beltre)

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looking at the pitching matchup for today

I suddenly don’t feel so bad about Joel or Lohse’s contracts

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions  

What sucks for them is that contract

is going to keep them from resigning Cain and Lincecum to their big contracts

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would never give a pitcher over a 3 year contract

Unless you are buying out Arbitration years.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looking at Motte vs Franklin...

I see disaster looming with Franklin, but it looks like Motte will be able to take the reins. Although, having a closer is pointless when you don’t score any effing runs.

Franklin:
BABIP .189
LOB% 98.6
FIP 3.89

Motte:
BABIP .304
LOB% 70.8
FIP 2.62

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on May 30, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Great,

I was looking forward to watching 7 from carp, an inning from motte and then a quick finish by franklin, but now I will have that babip looming on my mind all game. note to self: bring flask to park, franklin’s are to expensive.

"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Gibson

by davethebutcher on May 30, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just hope

for the complete game shutout from Carp

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

shhhhhh...

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

will people never learn?

How many times do the GOBs have to fuck with us, people?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im sorry

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who is this Carp?

If you are referring to RH Pitcher 29, he is not to be mentioned by name. Carp does not exist, nor has he ever.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

$8.75 for a small beer at SBC

ridiculous.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 30, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel like an idiot for asking but

What is LOB%? Sorry, I am a stat noob

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Left-on-base %

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thank you

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

must be a difference in location

but around me, if you were to call Thurston a noob, you might be in a bit of trouble.
(I know you didn’t call him that, just referencing what that word means to me. I’m not offended, but others may be)

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've heard that young 'uns these days PWN nOObs.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

somebody explained the "PWN" thing to me

but I still don’t follow it. I also notice a lot of & ’ s in random places and have no idea what it’s supposed to mean.
(I understand when it’s used for “and”)

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

PWN= Pawn

As in a Pawn in chess. A piece that is to be considered weak, abundant, and dispensable.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought it was

just a typo for “own.”

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

No

Pwn is a “l33t” spelling of own. Remember in the 80s people used to say “he got owned.”

So now if you’re playing World of Warcraft of Everquest, you get pwned instead.

by sdrone on May 30, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

kids these days

I can’t believe quake 3 is almost 10 years old…

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 30, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quake 3?

I still remember Quake 1. Playing online with a ISDN modem with grappling hooks.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, yeah, but quake 1 actually feels old school

quake 3 was the last game i was active in (ran one of the top clans in the insta-freezetag mod i played from around 2002 to 2005), so it feels more “new” to me. Not something that should be 10 years old, at least.

BTW, are you talking about the Q1 mod with the runes and the sniper rifle? The Q3 physics, esp the hook, never felt right after “pwning” that q1 mod for a couple of years. I still think Q1 online gameplay was better than Q3; having a super-fast connection gave you more of an advantage in Q3, whereas you could be competitive in Q1 on a 56K. unfortunately everyone moved off of it when Q3 came out (Q2 was basically ignored IIRC).

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 30, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

All I remember from Quake 1 was Rocket jumping

The game that truly wasted a large portion of my time was Counter Strike. Easily my favorite multi player of all time.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 30, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never played Quake

but had a few nightmares after hours of Doom

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ive always thought it means

very new to something/inexperienced at something

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can we just make a blockbuster trade and deal for Zimmerman already?

I know he is the face of the franchise for the Nats but next year they will have a new face in Zimmerman. We could put together a nice package with all the prospects we have at the moment.

It would be nice if Mo would at least make that call and say “not for nothing but what would you want for your starting 3B?”

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions  

New face was suppose to be Strausburg not Zimmerman.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldnt mind a trade thats centerpieces

include one of Wallace/D. Jones and two of Boggs/Walters/Perez/Motte/Todd

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring" -Rogers Hornsby

by stlwcards on May 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

with all the hype surrounding Strasburg

would the 3,486 Nats fans notice that they were 1 Zimmerman down? Once they draft him, make the deal.

by STLRegalia on May 30, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, let's just "deal" for a 5-6 WAR thid baseman who is 24 and just signed a 5 year extension

That should be pretty easy! Hey, I heard the Nationals are looking for a left handed first baseman!

(If you were joking than I’m sorry for being an asshole)

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I wasn't joking. I am just sick of talking about 3B. I know it is a pipe dream to trade for Zimmerman.

I wish Glaus was healthy. I miss him.

*No worries, I don’t think you were being an asshole. Anyways I can take a punch.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I miss Scotty

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

While I don't think it's possible

I do think it’s worth a call. It’d have to gut the farm system — Jones, Wallace, Jay, Boggs, Todd to start — but something to ponder.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

No it really isn't

Zimmerman is the future of the Nationals franchise. ZIPS projects him to have a .374 wOBA the rest of the way. With +10 defense at third, that makes him roughly a 5.5 WAR player right now. He is 24, meaning he will likely improve on offense, as evidenced by his crazy start so far this year. He is the future of the Nationals franchise, and just signed a 5 year 45 million dollar extension. There is no one in our entire system (possibly including Pujols when you consider contract) that the Nationals would take for him.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dare I say it...Rasmus?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

They have Dukes

Who is better than Rasmus

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

why do the nationals have good players?

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dukes was pretty bad at the start of his MLB career too.

And I think Rasmus was the better prospect.

I also don’t think the Nats are too worried about Rasmus’ rookie struggles effecting their season.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love Rasmus

But his peak isn’t really any better player than Dukes’ current performance.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

nevermind

Dukes isn’t a centerfielder

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dukes ? C'mon. Dukes? Really? He is a ticking time bomb.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

They're playing him like he is

could explain all the losing.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe a statiscal fail on my part

Dukes at CF -26.4 UZR/150 (60 games)
Rasmus CF 39.8 UZR/150 (30 games)

Of coarse I’ve heaerd UZR is particularly cranky about sample sizes.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

A 112 OPS+, -4.6 UZR OF?

That’d be disappointing.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Er...

-11.9 this year

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

he's a fine corner outfielder

he just appears to be a terrible CFer and that brings him down.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

But statistics aside, he's my least favorite player

And if he can’t play CF well enough to stick, he’s not worth mentioning alongside Rasmus.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

But they just keep puting him out there

if only MLB clubs had tools like the internet!

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just remembered that Dukes was a corner outfielder

please ignore the above comment

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Colby is already worth more as a CF than Dukes in my opinion and the Raz has yet to start hitting.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

I just realized that Dukes was a corner outfielder, which makes Rasmus about 10 runs more valuable by default. I had always thought that Dukes was a good fielding centerfielder for some reason.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's a very good athlete

Seems somewhat reasonable.

Of course he is 241 lbs, which is quite large. I don’t know how big the typical CFer is.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he has been playing CF most of the season.

I don’t think the results have been good though.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

terrible

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

UZR isn't very reliable in small sample size

Given his athleticism, and his +performance historically in the corner outfield spots, I would expect him to be an average defender.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's better at punching women, unfortunately

He’s a phenomenally talented offensive player. Lots of raw strength, quick bat, powerful with room to develop more. Seems more interested in being a jerk though.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

UZR isn't ver reliable

as a PREDICTIVE TOOL given small sample sizes. It does NOT follow that it is not an accurate record keeping device over small sample sizes.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on May 30, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's what I mean

I was saying that Dukes’ UZRs in center weren’t a good representation of his true talent there.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

So you dont ask at all?

Whats the risk?

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on May 30, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

you could ask

you would just have the door slammed in your face :)

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd ask

But I wouldn’t do it in person

I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain

by jd is legend on May 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

And if I were a Nats fan and saw Zimmerman get dealt I would probably flip out.

He is affordable, young, talented, etc…

The only way I would chill out is if I saw a group of 3 to 4 premium players/prospects coming back over and then I still would be upset.

With some decent pitching they could win some games next year with Strausburg on board.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strasburg

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thaunks.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

hauhau

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

shut up spaunts

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whatever

vivau.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ausome

There's no "I" in team. There's also no "I" in "B-g Mac Land".

by mattybobo on May 30, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wau

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on May 30, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Au my gaud.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can't we do both?!

Say we send Perez to Cleveland for DeRossa. Then made a mega deal with the Mariners for Beltre/Bedard. Thrurston goes away. Barden and DeRossa are the INF back up. Rasmus/Wallace/Boggs stay put. The outfield gets settled as follows

Duncan/Rasmus/Ludstick. Ankiel is still is the 4th outfielder.

Slip Beltre into the 2 hole and let him see some good pitches and get his stroke back. Then he can be moved around a bit. Welley goes to the pen and Baby Face is demoted.

Schu
Beltre
Albert
Luddy
Duncan
Molina
Rasmus
pitcher
Ryan

DeRossa will back up everyone. We play in the World Series!

by nybirdfan on May 30, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Who would we trade to get DeRosa, Beltre and Bedard

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why bother with such details??

Mo, make it happen!!! Or else you’re shite!!!!

by Willie McGee's Twin on May 30, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perez gets DeRossa

Beltre/Bedard what ever it takes, but not Wallace, Boggs, and Rasmus. Didn’t you get that from reading my post. I am so sorry!

by nybirdfan on May 30, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

given what the Mariners gave for Bedard originally

I think they would insist on a player of Wallace’s status.

by TheBirds on May 30, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Mariners

Have two players listed as 3b’ers in Tacoma both have an ops well into the 800’s. I am not sure that another 3b’er prospect is what they would want. I do think that Bedard is the expense player and Beltre is more of a salary dump for them.

by nybirdfan on May 30, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wallace

could be a 1B or DH prospect, though.

"If I prepare myself, my stuff is good and I'm going to get outs. That is a fact." - Chris Carpenter

by spants on May 30, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

derosa

I’d trade Boggs for him I think

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am afraid we would get Haren'd again. We won't have Piniero next year unless we sign him.

So who pitches in the open slot?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

is Barden better than Thurston?

I’m not so sure about that

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

either am I

But Barden can play SS. So I think he has a higher value. Plus the discussion here has been that Barden has a better glove.

by nybirdfan on May 30, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably not by much...

Probably has more power than Thurston, and I would say a better glove/arm. But it’s hard to say, because his playing time has been rather sporadic. I think it is a lot harder to be a hitter if you start once every 3 games or so and come in as a defensive replacement for 1 PA per game.

Thurston seems to walk more though. I think he’s more of a 2b, really.

by DiscoJer on May 30, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Per Fangraphs...


Barden

V.S.

Thurston

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I broke my links.

Who needs a link when a link can be broken.

I don’t care about 3B anymore.

So how is our bat boy looking this year?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now that I think about it those links work perfectly.

They sum up the 3B situation quite well.

You have encountered an unexpected error. If the problem persists, please fill out a contact form.

Thank you for your patience.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Where can I get a contact form?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

you know Blazer

it really does!

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 30, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Barden vs Thurston

Statistically speaking Barden and Thurston have a similar OPS where Thruston has a higher OBP and Barden has a higher slugging percentage.

Barden is a plus defender while Thurston is below average.

I choose Barden. Until he starts to suck and then I will just bitch about how Tony should start Thurston over Barden at 3B because Barden can’t get on base to save his life.

It’s quite beautiful actually. Either way I still get to complain.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

they’re both about equal, which means Barden is getting the short end of the stick

4B - beer baseball bands blog
"OOHHHHH!!!! He knocked out the I in Big Mac Land!!"

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 30, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

it means

we’re all getting the short end of the stick

by mopack on May 30, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah that sucks. He plays great D and can hit the ball. Everything you want in a 3B.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Too be fair, his defense historically sucks

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

It did up until last year. He was fantastic.

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 30, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

He was in the top 9 for Defense at 3B.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2008&month=0

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Game thread up yet?

"Rasmus doesn't hit lefties. Instead he bashes them over the head with their own bleeding arm he just raced to the mound to rip off before the ball arrives to the plate. He then smashes that baseball with the pitchers bloody arm over the wall because he does not hit lefites he bashes them." Ted Lilly

by Red Blazer on May 30, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Quality of opposing pitchers

Comparing Ankiel’s number (54) to Ludwick’s number (158) tells me that April’s opposing pitching was quite varied.

Not to nitpick, but isn’t having 5 of your 10 qualifies in the top half known as league average?

by ubeddie on May 30, 2009 9:29 PM EDT reply actions  

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