A look at The Cardinals defense

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 1:43 AM EDT

We are roughly over 1/8th of the season through and I just wanted to make a quick look at how the Cardinals players are doing defensively so far in this 2009 Season. I am having trouble getting Dewan's +/- for every player and I even subscribed to Bill James Online to fix that, but even still it only has the leaderboards for 2009 and not the +/- for every player so far this season.

I'll start with position specific UZR, as LaRussa has moved players around at an amazing rate this season, resulting in many players playing in multiple positions.

Top 5 Cardinals (position specific) UZR / UZR150

1. Rasmus (46.2 Innings in Right Field) 2.0 / 162.0

2. Ludwick (169.2 Innings in Right Field) 1.4 / -23.7

3. Barden (77.1 Innings at 3B) 1.4 / 40.9

4. Pujols (215.1 Innings at 1B) 1.0 / 7.3

5. Ryan (54 Innings at 2B) 0.7/18.7

Bottom 5 Cardinals (position specific) UZR / UZR150

5. Thurston (108.2 Innings at 3B) -0.5 / -8.8

4. Ankiel (166.1 Innings at CF) -1.1 / -5.1

3. Schumaker (30 Innings at LF) -2.9 / -98.6

2. K. Green (154.1 Innings at SS) -3.8 / -36.7

1. Schumaker (125.2 Innings at 2B) -4.0 / -44.3

At CF Rasmus has posted a 0.0 UZR in 50 Innings at CF and Chris Ducan has not been as horrific at LF as Schumaker has been anywhere this year, posting a -0.3 in 153.2 Innings at LF. Meanwhile, Rasmus has posted 32 innings at LF posting a 0.0 UZR. I have been disapointed by Green so far, whom is usually known for his glove as well as his ability to hit for power. So far he's been nothing but a downgrade from Izturis defensively. Both Ryan and Thurston seem to be tter at playing 2B, but Ryan obviously has issues at the plate and Thurston has only posted 29.2 Innings at the position posting a 0.5 UZR.

I would assume most of Ludwick's defensive value comes from his arm, given he already has 3 Outfield assists and is known for having a strong and accurate arm.

Ankiel was a plus defender in RF and his arm would be more than enough for a position that historically requires a player to have a big arm. He routinely takes bad angles at balls and to me seems like he doesn't have very solid pre-pitch positioning. Since Rasmus ability to get on base seems to be translating to the next level I think it's worth keeping him around in the line-up and moving him to Center where he's most likely going to be a ples defender.

Here is some +/- tidbits

Brendan Ryan 54 Innings at 2B is +3

Colby Rasmus 46.2 Innings at RF is +3

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Oh Yeah

Thanks to Fangraphs and Bill james Online for the source info.

I wanted to do a larger look at it using other stats from places like B-R and Hardball times, but I wrote this up quickly before work as like a test run of looking at the Cradinals defensive progression as the season wears on.

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 1:52 AM EDT reply actions

yeah

the lack of +/- data at billjamesonline has been very frustrating.

One of the things I really, really wanted to do this year was to track skip, ankiel, and rasmus’ UZR/RZR/OOZ/plus/minus’s by week, but I’ve just been snowed under at work and haven’t been able to even watch many of the games. It would be awesome if someone could do what you’ve done here, monthly, at least…

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 3, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah

Being in Ca, I have very little access to the Cardinals. I watch them as much as I can. Plus, I have two jobs and I really like doing this sort of player tracking throughout a season, but time sometimes becomes an issue. If people do respond well to this, I can do it more in-depth for each step of the season as it goes along. (1/4, 1/2, 2/3, etc….)

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Greene

I think people expected too much from him, defensively. If you look at fangraphs, he’s only had 2 years where his UZR was positive.

by DiscoJer on May 3, 2009 2:55 AM EDT reply actions

I know he was always a little overrated defenisvely, but he's just been bad this year.

I expected him to at least be average or be better than he was last year. He’s on pace for his worst defensive season as a pro.

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

The real problem with this

is that his offensive production has not covered up his defensive deficiencies. Hopefully, that changes

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 3, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

If I would have posted mine before I went to work

I would have beaten this guy to the punch. Here is a pretty great article breaking down the Cardinal’s middle infield over at BtB

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/2/862979/news-flash-the-cardinals-middle

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 3:06 AM EDT reply actions

Good post

However, I’m not sure how reliable UZR ratings are after 1 month. For one, 1 month of UZR really doesn’t come close to representing a player’s true talent level. Also, their are a lot of error bars in UZR type ratings, that are exaggerated in a small sample size.

MGL (the guy who invented UZR) suggested an alernate way to get a read on the “true” talent level of our current team. His final number had the Cards this year with a true talent level of +12 overall.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 3, 2009 3:32 AM EDT reply actions

They aren't reliable.

It’s awesome that we have this great new resource available to us but I wish people would stop quoting 25 games worth of data and then drawing something conclusive from it. I’m not even sure it’s a good record of the past much less a predictor of the future. We’ve got probably less than 10% of the innings needed to make conclusive statements about defense based on this metric.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on May 3, 2009 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions

over at baseball fever

there was a discussion on whether 3 years of data is enough. I recall the general sentiment being that it is useful as a tool to look back at someone’s career. If hit/fx or whatever its called arrives soon, that’ll quickly supplant current measures.

by ol Pete on May 3, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

We probably have less than 3% of the data necessary to draw something conclusive.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on May 3, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I've read at The Book blog that

2 years of defensive data is roughly the same predictive ability as 1 year of offensive data. I’m comfortable using about half a year if you’ve seen ALOT of that fielder and 1 year is going to give you a good starting point. If you have consistent data after 2 years, you’re probably going to be able to put it into a -10, -5, 0, 5, 10 bucket and that’s kind of the best you’ll get for defense at this point.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on May 3, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, the fact that schumaker is currently much "worse" in left than

adam dunn has ever been should clue you in to the fact that the defensive metrics are very limited in a small sample size.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on May 4, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

and this is compounded by the players playing at different positions

4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution

by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 4, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

yes, but the whole point is that 1 month of UZR doesn't come close to capturing the true talent level of a player

It is just better to use the projections.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 4, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Good time for a glimpse

Small sample size notwithstanding, it’s especially interesting given the positional carousel this year that complements the standard TL lineup merry go round. They gotta know Rasmus is a better CF; are they possibly showcasing Ankiel for a future trade? The chances of signing the type of contract required to keep Ankiel next season seem slim. Even if the 4-man outfield continues to produce, regardless of a good record, at some point in time this summer they’ll have weigh the issue and the possibility of acquiring a decent starting pitching prospect would be hard to pass.

Other mysteries remain. TL

by BKKCard on May 3, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

I would like

to use something other than UZR, but Dewan’s +/- listings are not readily available. They are better gauge in a small sample than is something like TZR or UZR. I suppose OOZ would be slightly better, but not that much.

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

Also

Here is a good look at the usefulness of SSS’s. Not arguing either way, just sparking discussion. Posted by Philkid3 at BtB

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/4/29/859416/fg-small-sample-size-usefulness

by Hambone Willis on May 3, 2009 5:48 PM EDT reply actions

As others have said, one month's data isn't really worth much

Schumaker’s been better from what I’ve seen (maybe about 50% of the games so far) than advertised, his footwork and first step look a little awry but he’s not fluffed any easy DPs that I’ve seen, and has had a solid glove. I don’t know that I’ve seen him bobble one yet.

That said, he’s probably never going to be an average 2B. My main concern is more that his OFFENCE has been mediocre so far. He’s worth keeping on the roster, given his flexibility and the fact he can hit RHP and get on base, but he’s probably not doing enough right now to be our starting 2B, given his perilous lack of range. I cannot see why we haven’t signed Ray Durham to fill an absolutely glaring need – whilst we have no 3B on the roster, we don’t have a viable right-handed platoon option for Skip, and that will cost us games this year. If Barden plays 3B, we really need Durham to be our starting 2B against lefties (and probably play a bit vs righties too). The current roster makes zero sense.

Greene, I think, will come around and be about average as a SS this year. I’m not so concerned about him.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on May 4, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think that Schumaker is that bad at second

From what I have seen, he makes most of the plays that an average second baseman would have made, and he has had some really good ones also. I would say that he is around -5 at second, which, combined with the positional adjustement at second and slightly above average offense, would make him a league average player over a full season. He would at least make a decent stop gap for the next 2 years until we can get a long term option there.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 4, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I am beginning to think

he is a much better at second than he is in the OF

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on May 4, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

he lost a full run in tonight's game

sadly I was stuck doing my new 14+ hour work day, so I tuned in just in time to see the awful end, but did anyone see anything tonight that would indicate he was that much worse than an average 2B?

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 6, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Schu's primary problem

is he consistently gets a late break on the ball. His hands aren’t bad, but he just doesn’t cover much ground. I don’t think his final UZR will be as horrific as his current UZR/150 would lead you to believe, but his range sure looks very limited. He will likely be a negative value player at 2B at year’s end.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on May 6, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions

DEFENSIVE RANGE

is an important defensive statistic and one of the most difficult things to calculate. Schumaker and Duncan may show up OK on the defensive statistics but they are defensively limited. Both of these guys give you everything they have got, but they are limited. The problem is that neither has good range and they would have to hit a ton for their overall team value to be a plus. In my mind the best outfield is clearly Ludwick, Rasmus, Ankiel and the best middle infield is yet to be determined. K. Greene has been bad at SS but I believe that it is to soon to give up on him. He did hit exceptionally well during spring training and he has rare power potential for a SS. The obvious objective is not to just find the best fielding outfielder or infielder but to find the proper blend of defense and offense. Ankiel, Rasmus and Ludwick is an easy decision because you get similar offensive production with a huge upgrade on defense.

While It is to early to give up on K. Greene, it is not to early to understand that T.Greene and Ryan are clearly the two best defensive middle infielders and that their defensive ability and the lack of offensive difference between them and Schumaker probably makes either of them a better choice for 2B. If K. Greene doesn’t turn it around then they are also better choices at SS as well.

I do not have the statistics to back up this statement but the platoon of Thurston and Barden at 3B has been exceptionally good from a defensive prospective. I do not like Barden at SS or at 2B because of his range at those positions, he is solid there but he lacks range just like Schumaker. Thurston seems to have better range at 2B than Schumaker but he lacks the range that Ryan has shown.

by Warcard on May 6, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions