Major Moves Coming

because it’s not an exact science, but there is truth to it. It’s the same reason businesses get into bidding wars over smaller entities and why some companies will buy patents just so other companies can’t get it. Here, I’ll explain . . .

If we don’t get Peavy and the Cubs do, the Cubs are going to add 4-5 WAR. That is 4-5 WAR that directly affects us as a division opponent. Considering we’re already neck and neck have been for a few years, that means we need to find 4-5 WAR elsewhere to cover that ground. By adding Peavy ourselves, that means the Cubs have suddenly lost 4-5 WAR to us! And they need to find players to cover that ground instead of us having to.

I know it may sound crazy at first, and there’s less of a number you can apply to it than usual baseball stats, but it’s necessary to take into account.

It’s easy to get lost in our own teams, but we are playing against others. I think it’s important that when people write off these trades, they also think about how it stacks us up against our opponents, especially when the main suitor is our biggest rival and biggest competition right now.

… he doesn’t have to be a 5-win player to make it a bad trade. he only has to be a 2-win player and make the minimums for 3 years. the difference between his salary and Peavy’s will be ~ $15mn each year from ‘10-’12. at $5mn/win, you can sign a 3-win player at full market prices and break even.

except you’d really be doing better, because you don’t to pay Peavy’s $4mn buyout in ‘13, and you’d still have Wallace from ‘13-’15 at below-market prices.

of course, Wallace is likely to be better than a 2-win player, and Peavy has only been a 5-win player twice in his career. so even breaking even on a straight Wallace-for-Peavy trade is unlikely.

1. The Yankees probably aren’t bidding for starters next year, so I don’t count what Burnett and Sabathia signed for, because they essentially outbid themselves for both of those pitchers. The only big market teams who will be fishing for free agent pitching will probably be the Mets, who already have a #1 making $25M a year, and the Angels, who have a bunch of bad contracts already (The Cubs might be, but they also have a bunch of bad contracts and are trying to sell the team). I really don’t think we’re going to see A.J. Burnett-type deals next offseason because nearly every pitcher comes with some type of issue (injury, inconsistency, etc.).
2. If you’re Jake Peavy, you’d be crazy not to ask for your option to be picked up before signing off on any trade. Even if you don’t pick up the option, you still have to pay him $4M just to go away. That’s essentially what you would pay Wallace that year after arbitration if he’s been a 2-3 win player for his first three years in the big leagues. So you pay $4M to dump a pitcher to avoid paying him $18M more, OR you could have a 3 win player at 3B. I’ll take the latter.
3. His contract is team friendly if he doesn’t require the option to be picked up, but only if your team budget allows you the room to add him. With Pujols needing a long term deal in the next couple of years and 3 rotation members making over $35M already, I’m supposing that the Cards can’t afford to pay Peavy AND keep the team competitive offensively, and that’s assuming that we can keep Jones and he becomes a productive corner outfielder and one of Craig, Freese, Kozma, or T. Greene become productive major league players. There are still a lot of holes to fill even if all that happens, and very little money available to do it. I’m not saying he’s not worth his contract — on the open market he certainly is. The problem is that he doesn’t guarantee you a World Series title, which is really the only way you can justify raising payroll to a higher level.
4. I’m not going to argue about Wallace, because I’m not sure he’s going to stick at 3B either. However, if the Giants are shopping Matt Cain, I think you could get Cain for around the same price as Peavy and he’s younger, makes a lot less money, and is a pretty similar pitcher if you look at his peripherals. A deal for Cain makes a lot more sense than a deal for Peavy.

We pick up his option, he waives a no-trade

and the Cardinals are one of them.

so does lohse i believe, otherwise i’d offer him (saves the pads 4-5M/yr) and gives them a semi-replacement. his contract makes that unlikely, so i’d offer a current regular such as welle or pinata plus some minor league talent. the net of replacing one of those guys with peavy guaranteed for a few years seems a good deal and one that could make us a winning playoff team.

not being facetious, I’m genuinely interested in how on he could be a league average 3B. His hitting has to be WAY below the average 3B by any rational historical measure of his effectiveness so far, or projection (career wOBA = .305, current league average = .335. CHONE projections for this year & the “revised” projection currently have him below the league average as well, although not by as much as I expected. His current wOBA is, however, very close to league average, which I must admit I also didn’t expect). I’m a bit doubtful of his walk-rate; it’s currently WAY higher than anything he’s put up in his professional career so far, in the majors or minors. Most of his value so far comes from his near-15% BB rate, and I’m just not sure how a guy closing in on his 30th birthday who’s always been a bit hacktastic suddenly overnight becomes a walk machine. It’s a sign of some offensive progress, but I just don’t see any way that it doesn’t slip down a notch or two as the season progresses.

So far (SS alert) UZR has him as a -10 defender at the hot corner over 150 games. Obviously that’s meaningless going forward, but for me he doesn’t quite yet pass the eye test as a clearly + defender at the position (good athleticism and a decent arm, but errors and poor throws seem to have been plentiful so far). UZR is a decent measure of what he’s done historically at the position, and so far he’s cost 2 runs. However, he hasn’t really played enough defense anywhere in his MLB career to be vaguely certain about any sort of projection, IMO. I note that his minor league TZR is a bit variable (mostly at 2B) but there’s possibly some evidence in there (and in how he’s “looked” so far) to suggest he MIGHT be a + defender at third, but equally there’s some evidence to suggest that he kinda sucks with the glove. So far I’d say the jury’s pretty much out.

I guess if he continues to walk at the current rate, and out-performs all his offensive projections that I’ve seen in wOBA, and is a slightly better fielder than he’s been at the position so far, he might be league average. I just don’t see him continuing to get on base at a .350 clip, especially if he continues to be exposed to LHP. Thurston/Barden platoon I could buy as a 2-win proposition, but the reality at the moment is that Thurston’s the starter, and Barden’s an occasional guy vs LHP.

However, I accept that my assertion that Thurston is “replacement level, at best” is probably incorrect. I’m probably under-rating him to be honest (wierd, because I was a big advocate of his over the summer), and reacting subjectively to a couple of weeks of pretty poor play from him. I’m also frustrated at backup MIFs dominating our MLB roster. We’ll see how he gets on for the rest of the year.