(Im)Patience at the Plate
As I've been watching this team so far this young season, I have been frustrated by the apparent lack of discipline they've been exhibiting at the plate. Many times they seem to be swinging early in the count, swinging at balls, and getting themselves out against mediocre pitchers and mediocre pitches. Of course, it is often the case that perception and reality are very different. I decided to take a look at the raw numbers, specifically, pitches per plate appearance, to see if my perception was reality. Here is what I came up with. I do not know how to insert a spreadsheet, so for brevity's sake (and my own) I will only include NL teams.
Team Pitches/PA
Rockies 4.00
Dodgers 3.98
Brewers 3.98
Cubs 3.97
Marlins 3.96
Nationals 3.91
Phillies 3.91
Mets 3.89
Reds 3.86
D'backs 3.85
Pirates 3.84
Padres 3.82
Astros 3.71
Giants 3.64
Cardinals 3.61
Braves 3.59
This is course a very crude and rudimentary way to analyze patience, but I have only crude and rudimentary statistical knowledge. You will notice that the Cards have the second lowest in all of baseball, no AL team is lower than them. The Rockies are tops with 4 pitches per PA, followed by the NL's best offense in LA. The Brewers and Cubs are also near the top.
Now, the Cardinals have scored more runs this season than either of those Central rivals, and only 3 less than the Rockies. However, in the first 10 games, they scored a massive 58 runs, or 5.8 a game. Since then, they have scored 122 runs in 26 games, or about 4.7 a game, over a run less a game. In May, they've scored 49 runs in 14 games, or 3.5 a game, about another run less. I bring this up because I believe it's tied into the same reason the Cardinals have been showing so little patience at the plate: their injuries have forced them to play younger guys, guys who probably should not now, if ever, be in the Majors. Let's see if that assumption is also true. Here are the Pitches/PA for the Cards, from most to least pitches/PA.
Duncan 3.89
Ludwick 3.83
K. Greene 3.82
Robinson 3.81
Pujols 3.73
Thurston 3.70
Schumaker 3.65
Molina 3.62
Rasmus 3.58
Barden 3.52
T. Greene 3.41
Ankiel 3.41
Freese 3.41
Ryan 3.40
LaRue 2.81
So, they have one rookie, not counting Thurston, above the team average, and 4 below it. Again, we are just measuring patience, as Barden and Rasmus have definitely been assets on offense. Leading the squad are Duncan, Ludwick and Khalil, then Robinson (small sample size alert) and then Pujols.
Looking strictly at Pujols' stats, you would assume his PAs would consume a lot more of the opposing pitcher's time, but there are a few reasons he does not, and in it are a few cavaets for this discussion. If Pujols ever gets a ball to hit, chances are he's not going to pass it up. So, if the first pitch is a meatball, he's swinging. At the same time, with so many bats out of the lineup, he probably feels some pressure to produce. Thus, swinging at bad pitches, pitches out of the strike zone, etc. Swinging at those pitches usually leads to a short at-bat, with a bad outcome. Also, if a pitcher is planning on pitching around Pujols, the PA will probably not last more than 4 pitches, not doing a lot to elevate his P/PA.
So what does this tell us? Well, really, all it tells us is that the Cardinals' PAs are shorter than any team in the Majors, save the Braves, another young team. It has no direct correlation to their offensive capabilities. However, I will argue that it is a weakness in the Cards' offense. Certainly, if the Cards have been getting pitches to hit early in the count, they would be mistaken to pass them up. What it really does, I think, is allow pitchers to get by with mediocre pitches at the corners, or out of, but near, the zone. It allows pitchers to go deeper into games than they otherwise would. It prevents the Cards from seeing a pitcher's full repertoire as early as they might. Basically, it gives opposing pitchers confidence and takes away confidence and information from the Cardinals' hitters. It worries me that some of the younger guys that are having success without taking a lot of pitches, like Barden, are going to be slower to adjust when the pitchers catch up with them. Basically, it tells me that things are going to get worse before they get better. I just hope that either they will change their approach, or I will be proven wrong. Either way, for now, it's very frustrating to watch.
2 recs |
15 comments
Comments
Good post
Your preaching to the choir here. Plate discipline (or lack thereof) has clearly been one of the main detriments to our offense so far. Here are some more descriptive stats to help back up your point: the Cards rank 25th in the league in O-Swing (pitches out of the strike zone), and 25th in Swing% overall.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 10:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
By the way;
And I know your post made no reference to it; when Tony stated that we needed to be more aggressive early in the AB he wasn’t talking about swinging at pitches out of the zone. He was talking about not taking strikes early in the account and falling behind because it leads to people chasing pitches out of the zone.
by Evilfrog on May 19, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We know that
but do the team know that???
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 19, 2009 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good fanpost btw
I pretty much agree with your conclusions. Another problem with this is that we’re letting opposing starters get deep into games (7 innings of jeff Suppan etc.). Even if we don’t score runs off the crappier opposing starters, we need to get into other teams’ bullpens quicker.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 19, 2009 6:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to beat a dead horse,
but I was at that game, and it maddened me so much that the scoreboard for the first ~4-5 innings kept showing Suppan’s terrible command (1-1 Strike/Ball ratio, which he admittedly did correct in the later innings) that day, and only Colby walked and took advantage of it. He didn’t appear to be 100%, he hasn’t pitched well all year, and instead of waiting, taking some free baserunners to get things going, the Cards were hack-a-lack-a-ding-donging like crazy.
I vote the anti-Tony ticket:
Aggressiveness on the basepaths,
Patience at the plate.
by aNdrOss on May 19, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was at that game too
Very frustrating. I just wanted to scream “this is Jeff Suppan! You know this guy! He’s not this good, for the love of [expletive]” etc. etc. At least I got a free hat…
by mattybobo on May 19, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for whatever reason
we don’t do well vs. suppan
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 19, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm starting to think he's cashing in on all the dirty secrets he remembers from his STL days
Guys, if you don’t make yourself into easy outs when I pitch against you, I might let it slip in an interview that I once caught you in the clubhouse showers [profane verb]ing with a [farm animal and/or random kitchen utensil].
by mattybobo on May 19, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but we already know Baby Dunk will hump anything
so it has to be something else. right?
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on May 19, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the shout-out
But I think you did what I usually do and glanced through the post. Final paragraph: “What it really does, I think, is allow pitchers to get by with mediocre pitches at the corners, or out of, but near, the zone. It allows pitchers to go deeper into games than they otherwise would. It prevents the Cards from seeing a pitcher’s full repertoire as early as they might. Basically, it gives opposing pitchers confidence and takes away confidence and information from the Cardinals’ hitters.”
Thank you for reiterating my point though.
by Midwestside on May 19, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, nice post
I wonder if there is an offensive stat that we’re not near the bottom of right now? Or at least for May.
by mattybobo on May 19, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
OBP
we are 30th in OBP for the month of May
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=onBasePct&split=41&group=9&season=2009&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 19, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
Does “at the bottom” count as “near the bottom”?
by mattybobo on May 19, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say so
near the bottom to me would be bottom 1/3rd, which is spots 21-30, so I would say we qualify for that.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 19, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The All-new May 2009 St. Louis Cardinals:
At or near the bottom of most offensive categories! ©
by mattybobo on May 19, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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