Out Fielders
by DanUpBaby on May 15, 2009 8:45 AM EDT
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PrintHey, Colby Rasmus! Rasmus's home run was a good omen to turn on the game late to—I don't know if you've noticed this, but Rasmus's season has reached the point at which people who don't know that he hit 29 home runs in AA are saying things about how he he projects to have power down the road. When that happens I don't know if we're watching the same guy. He looks like he has power, he swings like he has power. If he doesn't, it's not because he hasn't retooled his swing for it yet, or because he's young; it's because he's not hitting well. This isn't a young Ray Lankford scenario.
It was especially good to see because in the ten days since Rick Ankiel went down his stock has risen dramatically. Ludwick's injury, however minor it is knock-on-wood, is the illusion of depth at its finest—two outfielders go down to freak day-to-day injuries and all of a sudden Shane Robinson is The Right Fielder For Your 2009 Cardinals, heretofore derided for not finding their four great outfielders enough at-bats.
(By the way, you don't want to go too long platooning Nick Stavinoha and Aaron Miles, but it's impressive in and of itself that these Cardinals could go two or three deep to find credible major league fifth outfielders. Once upon a time, I'll tell my hypothetical children, Nick Stavinoha was a prospect, and his name was John Gall.) Having Ankiel and Rasmus around isn't a surplus to deal from, unless the offer bowls Moz over—it's something to exploit.
#
Speaking of depth, Boggs's performance yesterday wasn't exactly inspiring, but in light of his more than adequate performance to date and the fine work of the bullpen in making this game look better pitched than it was he seems to have secured the sixth starter position for the foreseeable future. As long as he keeps up the newfound proclivity for the strikeout in some meaningful way, more power to him.
But it occurred to me, as I was talking about the Cardinals' newfound ability to dig around for fifth outfielders, that the same is now true for fifth starters. In addition to Boggs, who would also have been a top prospect in the Gall-Journell-Josh Pearce era of indifferent feelings, there's P.J. Walters, Clay Mortensen, Jess Todd, and Journell-era refuge Blake Hawksworth, who went nearly eight innings and struck out seven last night. And that's just in Memphis. All four of these guys are above the Travis Smith line, and would probably have had an overly expensive shirt made in their honor if they had come through the system in those dark times.
And now most of them probably won't sniff the majors this year. it's a great time to be a Future Redbirds fan.
#
While La Russa's bullpen clearance sale is still fresh on our minds, incidentally, I'd like to give him credit for yesterday's performance. He went to Miller early, in time to take advantage of a serious platoon split, and took advantage of the same part of the Pirates lineup with Reyes, which admittedly didn't work out so well. But if you're going to employ two guys who can only get lefties out, this is the way to use them: aggressive, but with a light trigger finger. But it would help if they could retire Brandon Moss.
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Rasmus definitely has power right now
Both of his homers have been absolute bombs this year.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
I agree
it’s not one of those situations where you say, he’ll develop more power as he fills out. He’s filled out. He doesn’t have his old man strength yet, and I think he’ll hit more homers in the future, but he’s a legit 20 HR guy with regular playing time.
Wait...
There’s old man strength?
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
is it gut-based? because, man, i oughta hit the batting cages soon.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
All jokes aside, Toddius has a point.
Most people develop their peak cardiovascular health around age 18-22, but men have muscular strength that continues to develop after that. From a strength prospective, most men don’t finish developing until age 26-29.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Oh yeah. Definitely.
I’m 31, and I found my power stroke a couple years ago. Sadly, it is with a 5-iron and not with a bat.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Maybe I just need to find the right position so my power becomes more valuable.
Unfortunately most people I talk to have never heard of “very short stop” and “3/5th base”
by mattybobo on May 15, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That sounds pretty accurate
as far as when people get their old man strength.
if it peaks at 29, can we stop calling it old-man strength?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
>cries softly<
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
god damn whippersnapper
i’ll run circles around you
Not if I also run in a circle!
So…confusing…to imagine…
by mojowo11 on May 15, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Old Man Strength
as I know it, describes the phenomenon(sp?) of never being able to whoop your old man, no matter the discrepency in strength and size.
my dad died at 74 when I was 21 and I’m pretty sure he could have left hooked me from the hospital bed up until the day he died. (long family story of age difference that I won’t get into)
your dad was 53 when you were born?
not that long a story.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Hey, where I'm from that is common.
And they are usually related too.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
That's part of it, too -
but don’t fight your dad to find out – not worth it.
mang
what is he going to be like with old man strength?
I think the Mang got his early
He pretty much came to the big leagues as a ready-to-serve hall of famer.
edit
what is he going to be like with old man mang strength
damn kids!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
He's also had a fair few loud outs on the warning track this year
I’m sure some of those’ll turn into short bombs as the summer wears on. And he’s (we’re told) a traditionally slow starter…
The things that impress me the most about him are his bat speed (seems to get it through the zone really quick, although he seems to hit the ball level, a lot of LDs, rather than being a more elevated hitter – more Ludwick/Rolen than Edmonds) and his eye – despite occasionallty getting a bit over-aggressive, he seems to have good pitch and plate recognition skills already, and that’s got to bode well.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed regarding his plate discipline
Even when he was struggling to hit for power and average, his high walk totals and good plate discipline allowed him not to be a black hole in the lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
also help avoid those horrible 3-up, 3-down, 8 pitch innings
that often happen around the Thurston/Ryan/Greene areas of the lineup…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
thank you
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Being one
that always weighs on the side of caution, I can now state that I think Rasmus is for real.
with Boggs (somewhat) holding his own
I wonder if there’s the chance at some point this summer that he doesn’t move from sixth to fifth starter, if he does well back down in Memphis and Welly continues his current splits. Maybe put the colonel back in the pen and send the puppy kicker down. He may not be better out there, but yesterday aside, he’s certainly looked like the better option.
He needs to be more efficient though
(Boggs, not Welly). I really feel he’s been excessively lucky this year, he left a ton of baserunners on (and not entirely through making great clutch pitches, either – he was helped out by a couple of timely DPs) and has produced a pretty dreadful ball/strike ratio his last couple of starts. A few reasonably well-hit balls made it into gloves last night, too. Wellemeyer, meanwhile, has been a bit unlucky on harder-hit balls (to my eyes) and, even given his long-ball, lefties split, and walks problems this year, his BABIP and FIP suggest he’s been a tad unlucky too.
With Boggs’ above-average stuff, there’s really no need for him to nibble as much as he sometimes does and I feel he needs to learn to challenge hitters early in the count, get ahead, and try to produce some quicker outs, otherwise his starts are going to really tax our bullpen. I like him a lot (perhaps more so than Pinata and Welly at the moment) but the back end of our rotation really doesn’t look terribly clever at the moment…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
He's definitely stranding more than he will long term
and he’s bound to encounter some more HRs. That said, the peripherals are good. His BABIP is high (.386) and he’s around league average on GB%.
If the command progresses, he could have some really nice outings. The question is whether it will. We’ve already seen a huge improvement from 2008→2009. When I watched Memphis video he was barely, if at all, using the slider. His fastball is such a tremendous weapon though with it’s natural movement.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
He's also not likely to continue to K 8.06 batters per 9
considering he only K’ed 4.5/9 last year in AAA. Nor will he continue to allow a 4.2 HR/FB ratio. ZIPS projects him to have a 4.91 FIP the rest of the season.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
K Rate
If he continues to throw that wipeout slider in the bigs (which Az relates he wasn’t using all that often in Memphis), then he might be able to sustain his high K rate. That is, until Dave Duncan converts him from this fascist style of pitching and teaches him the democratic method of inducing ground balls.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It's been a point of concern
and Keith Law commented on it a long while back (when Boggs was in the AFL, IIRC) about the disparity between his strikeout rates relative to his stuff. It always seems like he should be striking more guys out. 8k/9 certainy seems high but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him strikeout more than his minor league record would indicate.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I would rather him
get a few more ground balls that may lead to a run or two more than to keep his current K rate while only last 4+ innings.
Dear Dave Duncan --
Shouldn’t you be working with Adam Wainwright on that arm slot instead of posting on these boards?
We appreciate your participation, but the hours before game time are important preparation.
Say hi to Tony. And mention that he does have an actual third baseman on the roster.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
his initials are BB.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
That was last month
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 15, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yes, i know now.
out conversion project, Blaine Boyer.
I kid, but I would say Thurston and Barden are both utility guys. Neither is a true 3B.
Rec'd.
No offense to Evil, but that’s just too good not to recommend. Bravo, sirrah.
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 15, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you ever heard duncan say anything other than
“He needs to get his arm up higher and get on top of the ball” ?
Now AW has taken this to the extreme and has regressed as a result. I feel much better with carp working with AW than I do DD.
Groundballs get through the hole leading to more at bats and more pitches
Throwing strikes and not getting in 3 ball counts is what keeps your pitch count down.
Not afraid to nitpick
I asked that to Goold this week
All signs point to that’s not going to happen.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I think the replay of Rasmus' home run shows
2 other baseballs floating in the river. It’s both sad and funny that no one cares to go get them.
It's hard to navigate around the sunken pirate ship.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on May 15, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Yeah,
They showed some guy casually trying to reach for them. I would have jumped into that water with no hesitation. But then, i have an unhealthy obsession with getting a home run ball.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Gibson
by davethebutcher on May 15, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Then, you should head to Pittsburgh or Washington D.C.
I bet if you went to a dozen games at either park, with OF bleacher seats, a HR ball could easily be had.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Rasmus' ball is still sitting there in the Allegheney
If you hurry, it won’t even have time to float down river.
It can't be that much worse than the Mississippi
damn people need to quit being wusses and get those damn balls
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
DC
Not positive, but I don’t think a ball can reach the Potomac from Nationals Stadium. I think you can see it from the seats, but it’s not right next to it like Pittsburgh or SF. Could definitely be wrong though
I think bgh meant
that attendance at these two stadiums is so sparse, that catching a HR ball in the stands would be easy
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that makes sense
You definitely could catch a ball in the stands at Nats park. Place is pretty dead most games.
or the marlins park
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Trust me, I was down there on Tuesday
you would NOT have jumped in that water.
by Hardcore Legend on May 15, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
does anyone know what is going on
with Glaus? They haven’t really given an update and I just wonder when he is projected to be back. ASB?
last projection was post ASB
at least the last one I heard
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
The P-D reported back in April that he wouldn't even be re-evaluated until June
It’s my understanding that he is in Arizona, where he rehabbed from his last shoulder injury, healing. Glaus will be re-evaluated in a month, and we’ll go from there. A July arrival in St. Louis seems to be the best we can hope for from Glaus.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It'll be like trading for an All-Star
without actually having to give anything up
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
you know it really is
My brain has shut down completely so my butt is doing all the thinking.
by jacksonian on May 15, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Hey, silver lining to injuries!
The Cards are in a position to trade for three (four?) All-Stars now without even giving anything up!
To me, "re-evaluated in June"
sounds like “we have no freaking clue, we’re just hoping it gets better.”
My position is to expect that Glaus doesn’t have another PA as a Cardinal. This way, I can’t be disappointed.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on May 15, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
sounds like you have deciphered Cardinal DL speak.
the only thing worse than glaus not coming back is having him come back for 100 PA’s to hit .067/.128/.142
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
it takes a while to rebuild him
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm waiting for hilarious Japanese aliens in funny helmets to unveil a rebuilt Mecha Glauzilla
by mattybobo on May 15, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
nice!
go, go, Glauzilla!
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
see: Chris Duncan
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 15, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
jah
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd
for Glauzilla. Golden.
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 15, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Injuries show again and again how age will point out the folly of GMs
Glauzilla!
Boo, hiss
There goes Saint Louis
Go Go Glauzilla!
Yeah
by mattybobo on May 15, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
rec'd
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
make sure he doesn't step on Ballpark Vill . . .
Never mind.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he already did that.
Isn’t that his footprint that is full of water downtown?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
More machine than man now...
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 15, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone ready to tack a loss on gallardo?
I sure hope we do… lots of night games coming up it seems (kinda prefer day games myself)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions
Hell yeah. Lohse is due bounce back and "Yani" is due for a loss.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
it's pretty interesting
we are both tied for first, with reds and cubs both .5 back
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus' power
I’ve noticed in the last few games that Colby’s swing seems to have gotten more aggressive. He seems to have moved past the tentative stage and is starting to attack pitches in the zone more aggressively. I would not be surprised to see him go on a mini home run binge.
As for Boggs…I think it clearly comes down to fastball command for him. When he returns to MEM he needs to work almost exclusively on commanding his fastball on both sides of the plate. His high pitch counts are mostly due to fastballs that are nowhere close to the plate. If he can begin to command his fastball better, especially early in counts, he will become much more efficient. Furthermore, I do not think the high K rate is an abberation (sp?). His slider is so much better than it has been in the past and it is the main reason he is k’ing so many more hitters.
Rasmus' last few games
Do you think hitting behind Pujols has any effect of how he’s attacking pitches? I just wonder if batting in the 2-hole forces his mindset into just getting on base. Hitting behind him would seemingly allow him to be a bit more power minded…
It’s just me speculating. I wonder what his slugging stats (and K numbers) are like split between hitting 2nd and hitting 5th,6th,7th.
holy small sample size, batman!
srsly, if you don’t have more than 5 PA’s in any one slot, it’s hard to draw conclusions.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
That hasn't been updated to show his HR in the 6-hole last night
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 15, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Jury still out...
Anyway it is not much of stretch to say he might go on a homerun binge. He has shown the power in the minors and it is only a matter of time before he gets comfortable enough to really start taking a rip at the ball.
The Choice
I don’t want to hijack the thread, but I have a quick question that will merely require a few quick suggestions. Plus, I wanted an array of opinions, and was not sure how many would chime in on a Fanshot or Fanpost. Because I graduated from law school in December, I then spent January and February studying for the bar exam. So, before I knew it, baseball season was upon us. I did not really do much offseason baseball reading. Now, I have a nice opportunity to catch up. Because I subscribe to the free daily matchups email from Bill James Online, I get 40% off of an ACTA publication. My question to the community is, which book should I choose?
- The Bill James Goldmine 2009
- The Bill James Handbook 2009
- The Hardball Times Baseball Annual
Your thoughts and insights would be greatly appreciated.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Goldmine
I like the Annual, but some of its articles are a little overlong, and most of the Handbook stats are available on Bill James Online or Fangraphs at this point. I didn’t buy the Goldmine this year but the 2008 version was a fun book with a ton of “interesting” (i.e. sifted through) stats, a lot of short Bill James digressions, and a few really enjoyable articles.
Speaking of Bill James, Goold has the early season defensive numbers.
Take with HUGE chunk of salt. Today’s 10@10.
[T]he Cardinals have two regulars who are even or better when it comes to the plus/minus: Pujols and left fielder Chris Duncan. The totals with early-season league leaders:
* 1B: Pujols + 2 … Ryan Howard, two others +5
* 2B: Schumaker -9 … runs saved -7 (35th) … Ian Kinsler +9
* 3B: Joe Thurston -1, Brian Barden +2 … Ryan Zimmerman +12
* SS: Khalil Greene -4 … runs saved -3 (30th) … Marco Scutaro +11
* LF: Duncan even … runs saved even (18th) … Matt Holliday +6, Morgan +5
* CF: Ankiel -6 … runs saved -3 (32nd) … Chris Young +8
* RF: Ludwick -2 … runs saved -1 (27th) … Ichiro Suzuki +7
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
So Barden is better offensively AND defensively
compared to Thurston. I sure hope we find him soon.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
"it rubs the lotion on it skin!"
barden is trying to get that damn chihuahua down in the hole. he’s planning his escape any moment now.
we’ve figured out tony’s plan, though. he’s going to make skip a “third-baseman suit.”
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Put the lotion in the basket.
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 15, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever your reaching for put it down this is a family site.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
silence of the lambs wasn't a family movie?
boo.
Disappointed in that article by Goold, BTW.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Yeah, were is Barden anyways? I like "Joey needs a drink" but I would rather Barden play 3B
Also Dunc playing an even LF is good news.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
I kidnapped him
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
odds on Barden being in the lineup today?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
if y'all pay up, he can play
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn you man! We are trying to win a pennant! Don't you have any mercy?
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
Nyjer Morgan & all the other damn leadoff hitters
So far this season, Albert Pujols has amassed a WPA of +1.765. An impressive total almost completely supported by strong counting & rate stats (instead of flukish “clutch” hits like many of the league leaders), his total stands 10th in the majors. It would seem to be very difficult for anyone to have a more dominating first 35 games.
But not so for Nyjer Morgan & the assorted leadoff hitters that have opposed us this season. After 35 contests thus far, this motley crew has totalled a WPA of +1.378, including all of their hits, RBI & stolen bases. (For reference, that’s 48-for-149 with 22 runs & 19 RBI.) A lower value than El Hombre, yes, but if I dig a little deeper & give these little buggers credit for advancing an extra base on hits, scoring on sacrifice flies, baserunning gaffes by other players accounted against the hitter, etc., these leadoff types pick up an additional (estimated) +0.572, bringing the grand total to +1.950, high enough to slot in as the 3rd-best in the National League.
To be honest, I haven’t gone through & done a full scientific assessment on everything involved here. I didn’t credit Pujols for everything extra that he does, nor did I dock him for all the good work done by his table-setters (not that much, I’m sure, but it does add up); mostly because I wasn’t up to slogging through all of those numbers, plus I don’t have all of the appropriate data to make sure it’s all correct.
But it is just interesting to know that our pitching staff has seemingly done everything in their power to make the bad guys’ fleet-footed lineup-starters equivalent to our crimson-clad, once-every-couple-generations champion.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
that's an amazing nugget
Granted, +.68 of that was alfonso soriano’s 2-run home run and 9th inning walk on april 17-18.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Win Quiz
Over at Baseball Musings, David Pinto has a fun little exercise. You be the official scorekeeper. Who should have been awarded the “win” yesterday vs. Pittsburgh?
The Cardinals downed the Pirates 5-1 Thursday night. They took an early lead which they never relinquished, but their starter, Mitchell Boggs only lasted 4 1/3 innings, so he could not get the win. The win went to the first reliever in, Trever Miller, but to whom would you assign the win? It should go to the pitcher who pitched the best. Kyle McClellan recorded the most outs, and he just gave up a walk while Miller gave up a hit. Or should it go to Ryan Franklin, who pitched a perfect inning and threw eight of his ten pitches for strikes? I would be inclined to give it to McClellan. It seems to me the official scorers don’t put much thought into this.
In situations such as these, it usually seems that the scorekeeper gives the “win” to the pitcher who relieved the starter and pitched the fifth. Nonetheless, I tend to agree with the sentiment that K-Mac should have gotten it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
just giving it to the guy who comes in after the starter
assuming the lead stays in tact, gets rid of any bickering. If they started grading outings and giving the win to the “best” pitcher I think players would become bitter and pissed off. I know they are all adults, but all ball players are children to an extent.
It's the official scorekeeper's decision
Just like whether it is a hit or an error. There isn’t much of a difference here. I don’t see how this decision would lead to bickering. The standard to be used is apparently “effectiveness.” Rule 10.17© provides:
The official scorer shall not credit as the winning pitcher a relief pitcher who is ineffective in a brief appearance, when at least one succeeding relief pitcher pitches effectively in helping his team maintain its lead. In such a case, the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the succeeding relief pitcher who was most effective, in the judgment of the official scorer.
The comment to Rule 10.17© provides some guidance:
The official scorer generally should, but is not required to, consider the appearance of a relief pitcher to be ineffective and brief if such relief pitcher pitches less than one inning and allows two or more earned runs to score (even if such runs are charged to a previous pitcher). Rule 10.17(b) Comment provides guidance on choosing the winning pitcher from among several succeeding relief pitchers.
Last night, Miller did pitch 1 inning.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I gotcha.
I just imagine that most people, players probably included, assume that as long as the next pitcher records 1 out and the lead stays, that pitcher gets the win. I recall a story of a pitcher coming in, picking a guy off without throwing a pitch, and then being lifted the next inning and getting the win without throwing a pitch…could just be lore I suppose.
It would be interesting to see instances where the pitcher following the starter did NOT get the win.
i think it's one of those things that they should come up with a better definition for
but then again, it’s not exactly a huge deal
Someone in the comments there pointed out that Miller came in with the bases loaded and one out,
which was the highest leverage situation for any of the relievers. The game graph shows that Miller got the highest leverage outs and had the highest WPA, so he seems like a good choice to me.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
He meets the guidance of the comment and pitched in the highest leverage situation, earning a hold and preserving the lead.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
the Cardinals.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 15, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
who cares?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 16, 2009 4:06 AM EDT up reply actions
OT fantasy league advice
I’m in the salary cap league on sportnews.com, and I have Ben Zobrist, but am thinking about signing Colby instead. do you think this is a good idea? I really don’t know much about Zobrist…
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions
*sportingnews.com
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd look at a few factors
Is Zobrish playing everyday? Because Colby likely won’t be once Ludwick and Ankiel come back. Then, I’d compare their projections on FanGraphs. I think FanGraphs has revised ZiPS projections given production up to this point.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
cool
I’ll check out fangraphs… not sure if zobrist is an everyday player, but I think he’ll play more than rasmus, plus he costs less.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
the projections for zobrist don't seem like they are going to be very accurate
I’m gonna go with my gut and sign colby though
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
on second thought
I’m going to stick with zobrist. sorry for my insane jabbering
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Is Zobrist
eligible at SS in your league? that would give him some extra value.
nope
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh
this reminds me of a funny story from my draft. Our draft was going really slowly and had to be spaced out over several days, which I’m sure is common. Anyway, I was using the Hardball Times’ fantasy guy’s draft rankings as a loose starting point for most of my decisions, and he put together a really quality list breaking it down by position. I also made extensive use of Fangraphs and their awesome feature of providing all that projection data for free. I had ended up delaying on my third baseman, and I had decided I would either pick Adrian Beltre or Ryan Zimmerman. I decided to go with old reliable Beltre. So I missed out on the “Thirty Games of Total Awesome.” I am still in first place however.
just think how you'll feel when zimm's shoulder flares up in July, tho.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Heh.
Yeah, I’m not gonna get bent out of shape about it or anything. And even more, the strength of my team is the offense anyway; Zimmerman wouldn’t really have added all that much other than average, and I consistently lead the league in R, RBI, and HR.
man
I really wanted to sign Zimmerman, and I even tried to make a trade for the guy, but I just couldn’t get him on my team… then he goes out and hits like a machine. instead I’m playing Derosa at third I think
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm in a 9 team league
So it’s hard not to have stars at every position. Still, I pat myself on the back for dominating so far on my first real try at fantasy baseball.
does not compute
my first real try at fantasy baseball.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
10 teams in my league
coincidentally, the team in first has Zimmerman
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Best part:
“Being suspended is one thing, man, but not being able to play baseball is really, really bad,” Ramirez said. “I am going to miss baseball very much. I would like to tell everybody that I really love baseball, and that I love baseball, and that I am going to miss hitting the baseball forever and ever. I would like to end my career as a Yankee.”
Classic underachiever.
that quote kinda creeps me out
but at least he really loves baseball, and that he loves baseball
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
How will he retire as a Yankee
if he is going to miss hitting the ball for all of eternity?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
whoops
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorta the Anti-Adam Dunn huh?
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you guys know
That if a suspended players wins the All Star voting he can still play in it.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on May 15, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, I think his suspension is up before the ASG.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I misread your post
I thought you were asking if he could, but you were just pointing out an interesting fact. I’m kind of glad it won’t come to that (with him actually being suspended through the all star break), because it would just be even more of a sideshow than it will already be with him (assuming he’s voted in).
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
I was aware of Rasmus’s power in the minors (indeed, a poster here has that year in his sig). But that doesn’t always translate to the majors. And until that home run, he had really only displayed warning track power – his other HR was just barely over the fence.
Even after that HR, he’s slugging less on the year than Thurston.
Beyond that, his frame doesn’t look very big. Maybe I’m used to Duncan and Pujols, but physically he looks young and undeveloped. 22 is young, but he’s older than Bruce and Pujols. He looks like he’s got about the same frame as Skip (albeit 3-4 inches taller).
Also, what I find troubling is that he still hasn’t taken a walk this month. That’s what always had me excited about him, his ability to walk, thus making him a great #2 hitter.
his other HR was jusr barely over the fence?
did you actually see his other HR?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
It was pretty much all luck
That thing barely cleared the bullpen. It was only a row or two back in the second deck.
same frame as skip?
I don’t see it…
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
His first HR
was also a doozy (second deck in right field – I don’t know why there’s no sound with that video).
And just for fun, here’s video of last night’s water landing – watch it again for the first time!.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be me with the sig
And
22 is young, but he’s older than Bruce and Pujols
First off, Pujols is 29 and Bruce is 22.
Second, look at this guy:
Alexei Ramirez is 6’3", 185 lbs and he hit 21 HR’s last season. A player’s body frame has really nothing to do with power.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
presumably, older than pujols was in his rookie season.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
So is there that much of a difference in the strength one gains between 21 and 22?
(Generally speaking)
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 15, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
dunno. i think the point is that rasmus is at least as old or older than pujols was
when he put up fabulous numbers. and i guess had a bigger frame.
i don’t think that’s fair since a) by pujols’ standards, everybody sucks; b) we’re still a month+ into the season.
i’m not drawing conclusions on any 22 year old 6 weeks into the season. if razza is an average bat and the outstanding fielder i know he is, he’ll be more than valuable enough to keep in the field. anything beyond that is gravy.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Exactly
Raz isn’t expected to come here and mash 37 HR’s in his first year like Pujols did. Hell, almost nobobdy expected the Mang to be that good in his first year either. And even if Rasmus never develops 30+ HR power in his career, who cares? He’s still a huge assest to the team. And just for the record, I think he will be a 30/30 player at some point in his career.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 16, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
How 'bout Colby's long bomb last night?
All the way into the Allegheny… very nice.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
Scott Rolen
2009 Season Totals
AVG R HR RBI SB
.325 21 3 15 2
I guess we got the better year 1 out of the trade and they are going to get the better year 2. I guess the odds of a Rolen injury are high, but he doesn’t look too bad thus far
Good for Rolen. I would like to see him get into the hall of fame. Great 3B and when he is healthy great bat.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
Follow up, slash line
.325/.382/.480/.862
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 15, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Nasty weather heading into St. Louis
I’ll be happy if they get 5 innings and a win….. but don’t know if they can get it done before the storms. Should change Loshe name to “RainMan” being it seems like his starts (lately) have had rain delays.
All be careful out there!
Holy crap - those really are some intense storms heading our way
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
my internal optimist
says it will mainly stay north and only spit a little.
my internal pessimist says that the night will end with a cardinals player, either Duncan, Rasmus, or Robinson going on the DL after sliding on the tarp during the delay allowing TLR to influence Mo to call up another MIF and start playing 1 or 2 MIFers in the OF every game
the weather has sucked so far this year
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It looks like it's going to rain pretty hard when it rains,
but hopefully we’ll just get that thin line of storms and it won’t last very long.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
might as well just postpone it so they can all have a friday night off
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's something to kill time during the rain delay:
A Baseball Brainteasers quiz at Mental Floss. I got 8 out of 10 (missed #3 and #7), but I have confess a couple were lucky guesses.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions
Ouch
6 out of 10. All of that “The runner stays on first on a ball in play” crap threw me off, because you never see that!
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 15, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
i hit a very impressive .500.
it’s all in how you phrase it.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
And here's some rain delay listening:
Calculating The Physics Of The Ballpark, a segment on Talk of the Nation: Science Friday on NPR today about what might be causing the high HR rates at new Yankee Stadium.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
Ugh - starting to look like it'll be raining here for a long time tonight,
starting around or soon after first pitch. Doesn’t look good for a game.
by BTown Birds fan on May 15, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions
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