Can we please stop trashing Khalil?
When we first got Khalil Greene from San Diego, he was coming off one of the worst offensive seasons in recent memory, hitting a nifty .213/.260/.339, which translates to a .264 wOBA or about -35 runs in comparison to a league average hitter over 600 plate appearances. However, before that year, he had a long track record of consistent power and good defense. Many people were hoping that he would return to his 2007 form, when he hit a hackstastically powerful .254/..291/.468 with 27 homers and 44 doubles, good for a decent .322 wOBA. That expected regression combined with the move away from the cavernous Petco park, lead a lot of people (including me) to believe that he would be able to hit for enough power to overcome his terrible OBP, and be an above average hitter.
104 plate appearances into the season, Khalil hasn't reached that power potential. He has hit just 2 homers, and his ISO is a meager .112. His overall line of .225/.311/.337, wouldn't inspire a lot of confidence in anyone that he will be able to revert to the Khalil of old. However, when you look more closely at the numbers, it appears that he has developed a much better approach to hitting this year.
In 2007, he walked in just 5% of his plate appearances and swung at 29.2% of pitches out of the strike zone. This year, Khalil is walking 10.1% of the time and swinging at just 23.4% of pitches out of the strike zone, both above league average. He is also hitting line drives at a much higher clip (23.1% this year; 17.8% in 07), while maintaining a similarly high fly ball rate. So why is he hitting like such steaming pile of Izturis this year?
For one, his BABIP is .240. That is unsustainable. His career BABIP is .283, and given his current LD rate, it should be well over .300. There is really nothing that explains his low BABIP, so we'll just chalk it up to bad luck and assume that it will be peaches going forward.
Another reason his numbers are so bad this year, is that while he is hitting fly balls at a 47.4% clip, only 5.4% of those are leaving the yard. Other players with a similarly low HR/FB ratio last year included guys like Daric Barton, Michael Bourn and Freddy Sanchez. It's safe to say that Khalil has a little more punch than those gusy.
For his career, Khalil has a 9.4 HR/FB ratio, and half of his games have been played in Petco, which currently features the lowest HR park factor in the league by a wide margin. Hell, even last year, he managed a 7.1 HR/FB ratio, and he couldn't do anything right that year.
Khalil is only 30 years old, and he appears to be in perfect health. His is obviously hitting the ball hard, as evidenced by his high line drive rate. St. Louis isn't a huge ballpark either, at least not as big as Petco. I would say that the reason his HR/FB ratio is so low is just bad luck, meaning he just got under a couple of balls that he would normally have hit out. There is no reason to think that his HR/FB shouldn't improve a lot for the rest of the year.
So, if you take his current line of .225/.311/.337, and regress his BABIP and HR/FB back to his career averages; he gets a shiny new line of .253/.332/.422.
Note: This is not a projection of how well Khalil will do the rest of the season, as BB:K ratio is unlikely to hover around 1 given his career trends. It is simply a representation of how well Greene would be doing this year if he had normal luck. FYI, ZIPS' inseason projection system has him putting up a .245/.305/.421 line for the rest of the season.
So don't crap all over Khalil simply because he has had a rough start. If you choose to look at his periphals, you will see that he is doing a pretty decent job, and has just gotten really unlucky. There is no reason why he will continue to sport a .240 BABIP or a 5.4 HR/FB ratio as the season goes on. If his new, more patient approach is for real, then he may end up being an above average hitter this year.
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146 comments
Comments
'Tis spelled "Khalil"....just sayin'
And I wouldn’t say he has been in perfect health. Elbow problems have nagged him early on. However I agree with you. His BABIP isn’t going to stay that low all season. His numbers will get better. Maybe not ’07 better, but he will be an acceptable offensive SS by the end of the season.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on May 14, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
d'oh
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
fixed
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Thought it was Kahil...
…based on listening to Mike Shannon.
by thepainguy on May 14, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so, what you're saying is I should start putting together my
“Khalil turns it around post” for later in the season, where I can credit his rising average and increased home run totals to a minor change in his swing/improved focus/working in the batting cages/a serious talk with tony/eating a ham sandwich with that spicy mustard not the French’s?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 14, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like honey mustard better
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget losting 45 pounds, becoming vegetarian,
working on a new pitch, and being in the best shape of his life.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 14, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only way khalil loses 45 pounds is by having at least one leg amputated.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 14, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or getting a haircut
neither of which are likely.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on May 15, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just wonder
how much better over the course of the season he would be versus Tyler Greene. Tyler has shown plus ability on defense but not much yet on o. Just with the naked eye he looks like Khalil with a touch better defense and a little less patience at the plate.
by paposse on May 14, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thing is, he was a 3 win shortstop in San D.
Most people don’t just go from 3 wins to terrible in a year.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 14, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Busch
Is one of the best parks at keeping balls in the field of play. The Homerun rate per outfield fly is very similar to Petco if I remember correctly.
by Hambone Willis on May 14, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Last year, according to ESPN
Busch’s HR factor was .915 and Petco’s was .743. In 07, Busch’s was .717 and Petco’s was .685. I would say that Petco is clearly a more HR topdressing park, but Busch is pretty good also.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on offense -- he will probably improve
But he hasn’t been very good at all on defense. He made 8 errors in 934 innings last year and 11 in 1314 innings in 2007. He’s made 6 in 217 innings this year. That’s an alarmingly bad trend to start the year, especially since it looks like his range hasn’t been very good this year. I can understand errors if you’re getting to a lot more balls than the average defender, but it doesn’t look like Khalil is doing that. It’s really too early to look at his defensive metrics, since we need at least 500 innings to give us some type of approximation. But if his numbers so far are any indicator, he’s going regress quite a bit in this area as well.
I was a big fan of this deal in the offseason, but I’m becoming skeptical that it is a move that is going to work out for the Cardinals. Think about this: Had the Cardinals simply stuck Brendan Ryan at SS (like many of us here at VEB wanted to do before last season), batted him ninth, and kept that $6.5M at the ready, maybe Braden Looper is still in the rotation, maybe Brad Penny is a Cardinal, or maybe the team just adds that $6.5M to it’s stockpile of “dry powder” for a deadline deal that will probably never happen. Either way, it’s possible that the team might be better off.
FWIW, I hope I’m wrong and Greene turns in a fantastic month of June to help carry the Cardinals until Glaus comes back post All Star break (hopefully).
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 14, 2009 3:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I was against the trade but...
Since he is already on the team I have supported him. But his poor defense is my problem with him. This is the worst Cardinal infield defense I have seen in awhile. It makes it tough to watch this team. You know what the worst part is? Their is not one out decent free agent SS next year.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on May 14, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll just have to convert Jason LaRue to SS
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 14, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's the most concerning thing -- his defense.
his range and his uzr may come into more acceptable levels, but he’d have to mount a huge turnaround to be the kind of asset we need at SS.
i look forward to him hitting a little better, but in the interim i think it’s fair to let tyler and/or ryan take some cracks out at SS. especially given flim’s apt comment about next year’s ss market.
although, not to wake any historical revisionists out of their sleep, izturis did have a bit of a freak year as a defender last year, as well. izturis had historical defensive values of 9.4, 1.7, 1.0, -0.7, 12.1, -4.4, and 2.9 runs over the last several years. not unlike kennedy, izturis in 2008 had a career defensive year (well, a second career year) among largely unimpressive defensive years (except for that other great year). i don’t know that it follows that if we had resigned cesar we’d be getting gold glove defense right now (4 errors, -5.6 UZR/150 in far too small a sample size for baltimore).
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 14, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't in the camp for resigning Izturis
I thought the Greene deal was a better move. What I am saying, though, is that the team might have been better off just penciling in Ryan at SS or hoping that Tyler Greene was going to make the leap offensively (his glove is a plus). That $6.5M could have been spent on another area or been used to acquire a salary dump type player sometime during the season.
As I said, I thought this was a good deal this offseason, and I think Khalil still has a chance to turn it around. What I am disappointed in is that his defense so far has been subpar and I was sure that we were getting a plus defender at SS, if nothing else.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 14, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wasn't accusing you. just noting for posterity.
i hope that khalil will end up being a decent ss option, and i don’t think that’s a delusion at this point.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 14, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
Khalil’s defense looks pretty bad, and even if he does regress to his former offensive self, he is only a couple of runs better than T Greene or Ryan.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a few points...
We’re still dealing with a relatively small sample size, so his low BABIP and HR/FB rates could be explained by a lack of solid contact. However, no one goes a whole season without making solid contact at some point,* so I would expect he’d pop a few more out and put up a better line over the rest of the season. Now, by better, I don’t mean great…just better. Something like this maybe:
.250/.300/.450
I wouldn’t hold my breath for Greene to turn in to Hanley Ramirez though. The guy swings at too many pitches to be a good hitter for any lengthy stretch of time.
- Footnote: I would be willing to alter this argument to include Adam Kennedy circa the 2007 season or Cesar Izturis.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t hold my breath for Greene to turn in to Hanley Ramirez though. The guy swings at too many pitches to be a good hitter for any lengthy stretch of time.
Actually, this year he is swinging at far fewer pitches out of the zone that he has done in the past.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So he's gone from swinging at...
…WWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too many pitches out of the zone to swinging at WWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY too many pitches out of the zone.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, he's now swinging a fewer pitches outside of the zone that an avege hitter
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you figure?
To this point in the season, his O-Swing% is .5% higher than league average. It’s not a huge difference, but it is more, not less, than the league average. Sure, it’s an improvement from his career norms, but I’m not sold he’s going to stay this patient for much longer. My bet is that he’ll soon regress to his hacktastic ways, thinking it will help him get more hits or something. Hackers don’t stop being hackers.
On a side note…oddly, Khalil has actually swung at fewer strikes this year than the league average. How about that.
Khalil’s Fangraphs page here.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wrote this post last night
So I guess it was before they update FanGraphs stats. Before yesterday’s game, Greene was swinging at 23.4% of pitches out of the strike zone, which is above average.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, his LD rate is over 23%, so it's clear that he is making solid contact
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 14, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not rooting against the guy now
I said during the off-season I’d have rather kept Izturis than getting Greene, and that’s saying something.
I’m not too worried about his bat. Light hitting SS is a prerequisite to being a Cardinals team. I’m more concerned that he seems to have a noodle arm on any throw he has to make from the 3B hole.
by Hardcore Legend on May 14, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The one thing I really don't like about him...
Is much like the rest of the team, his walk rate has dramatically dropped in May.
In April, he didn’t hit much, but he walked a ton (for him, anyway, 9 walks). In May, he’s got 1 in about half the playing time.
I really wish I knew whose bright idea it was to stop hitting the way it was in April, and be more aggressive at the plate.
by DiscoJer on May 14, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tony
Dan and Al said as much. So did the Reds announcers, that LaRussa was upset his team wasn’t being more aggressive at the plate.
by Hardcore Legend on May 14, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We wouldn't want to draw any mean walks or anything.
Maybe the Cards should just go swing at every first pitch and try to get a 27 ours in 27 pitches game. At least then they’d be aggressive and make TLR happy.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ours=outs
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does he think it's coincidence that our lead in the division has evaporated?
April: We win a bunch of games, are more patient at the plate
May: Let’s be aggressive at the plate, start losing games……does he not see what the rest of us see?
Also, there’s pitching…
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 14, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This really did start in late april.
And it seems like it started at the top, with the Mang expanding his zone and swinging at more bullcrap out of frustration.
Anyone else remember that late-april at-bat pujols got out on a 3-0 count by swinging at two straight balls?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 14, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Albert
hit badly in last night’s 3rd game vs Pitt. Again, too much swinging at crap out of the zone, and he was really lucky with the 2RBI single which was basically a choppy groundball he whacked into the dirt, swinging at one too low. Bad baserunning error with 2 on, too. He doesn’t seem quite zoned-in at the moment.
DFA please.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what a jackass
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would also think ...
that the command of pitchers gets better come May than what it is in April. So, I would think that needs to be taken into account when making this kind of argument. This lack of command early in the season is the reason that starters don’t usually start going deep into games until May.
It would seem to make sense that the Cardinals were being patient with pitches early in the year, but that they would start to be more aggressive as the pitchers start to get better.
by etp_stl on May 19, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not our pitchers
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 19, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ours=outs
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What am I doing?
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 14, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna trash the guy
but I was never overly excited about him either. It was a low risk move that put a warm body at SS for one year but didn’t solve anything long term. I think people were secretly hoping the guy would be the second coming of Ludwick- this year’s reclamation project that comes out of nowhere and goes crazy, or at least that he would play great defense and not suck as bad as Izturis at the plate. He still might come around and suck slightly less, but we’re about where I though we’d be with him- hoping he comes around to slightly above average. At the time I said I’d rather have had Orlando Hudson to play second, or a pitcher like Penny or Wolf, even if it meant (gag) another year of Izturis, or a platoon of Memphis redbirds. I really wish they could have put something together for Escobar with the Braves but I think at the time he was tied up in the Peavy deal that never happened, and I have no idea if that was even a possibility. Hey, he’s a cardinal, so I hope the guy goes on a home run tear and proves me wrong, but so far not so good.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
by Tupelo on May 14, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that we need to trade for a decent SS
How about Jason Bartlett? He has been lights out on offense and is controlled to 2011. The Rays have plenty of prospects behind waiting in the wings for a shot, but the price will probably be too high or something we don’t have.
My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...
by Taskmaster on May 14, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll preface this by saying . . .
I’ve gone all Superman and started calling him “Son Of Jor-El”. (Actually, The Dugout made that one up. I don’t care, though.)
Anyway.
Without looking at stats (I’ve never been a huge numbers guy myself), I’m calling early returns on the “Son Of Jor-El Experiment” mixed. He’s not tearing the cover off the ball and defensively we’ve gotten pretty much what’s expected (well . . . I didn’t expect the world, anyway), but it’s not like he’s a huge embarrassing failure either. And obviously it’s not nearly enough to extend a multi-year megabucks offer at him to keep him here. That said, there’s still four and a half or so months left in the season, so there’s plenty of time for him to change our perception of the guy.
I’ll be rooting him on at the ballpark tomorrow. If he’s in the lineup.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
by Donut King on May 15, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
vivaelpujols,
I hope you understand when I was trashing “Greene” the other day and you made the comment about bad luck, I was referring to the other Greene on our team (that Tyler kid). I totally agree about Khalil and can’t wait until he starts to heat up.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on May 15, 2009 1:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't have you in mind when I wrote this
I just remember in the game threads over the past couple of days there were a lot of people who were being really negative towards him, although I really shouldn’t take game threads seriously.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
although I really shouldn’t take game threads seriously.
that’s probably not a bad idea. especially during slump season.
but I’ve got say, good post nonetheless.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on May 15, 2009 5:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 6:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry
I was defending the guy up until a point, but when you don’t have any good looking at bats and make another error and a pretty easy play, I tend to start to throw the guy under the bus. I still think he can turn it around though, and I chalk this up to a slow start and a little bad luck.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post
agreed. I don’t think his defence is as bad as it’s looked so far either.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 4:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's made some wonderful plays
too bad he kind of negates them with the easy ones he misses. I think he’ll warm up though
4B - beer baseball bands blog
"The ball sank the pirate ship that had been docked in the river."
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 15, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have always been down on Greene
I guess Green’s performance is only dismaying if you expected anything from him. Back when we did community projections, I multiplied his 2008 numbers by .67 and his 2007 numbers by .33 and added the results. I got a .229/.270/.381 line. So based on his last two years of numbers, I predicted a .229 batting average and .651 OPS.
So now he is hitting .225 with a .648 OPS. You see someone who is bound to improve, and I see someone who is doing what I expected, someone whose performance is right in line with his last two years of stats, which doesn’t give me much reason for hope.
And by most measures, his defense is atrocious and worse than I’d imagined, which worries me, as it could be a sign that his overall baseball skills are rapidly declining.
His batting average on balls in play is terrible, but sometimes that is luck, and sometimes that is a sign of losing it.
I am glad his walk rate is up. But sometimes that is simply a sign of a slowing bat—many players start walking more at the end.
I hope he bounces back—I’d like to be wrong.
by tarakas on May 15, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
...
His batting average on balls in play is terrible, but sometimes that is luck, and sometimes that is a sign of losing it.
His BABIP is .240. That is purely the product of bad luck. There is no possible way that you can argue that. His LD rate is excellent, his strikeout rate is excellent, his walk rate is excellent (for him).
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
no way any MLB hitter will sustain a .233 BABIP for very long. Even slap-happy, no-power, no-speed Yadier Molina has a career BABIP of .280, and Greene hits it harder and runs faster. Khalil’s had about a fifth of his hits taken away by bad luck so far.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the other hand
According to the original poster, Greene’s career BABIP rate is .283, so he “despite hitting harder and running faster” his career BABIP hasn’t been significantly better than Molina’s .280.
Can Greene hit well under his career BABIP rate for a season? In 2008 he had a BABIP rate of .261, so the answer is “yes.”
I’m sorry, but the guy hit .213 last year in over 400 plate appearances. And now in his first 100 plate appearances of this year has hit .217. After how many plate appearances is it not “bad luck” but instead “true level of ability?”
by tarakas on May 15, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greene's career BABIP is low
because he hits a ton of flyballs (over 45% for his career) and those don’t fall in for hits nearly as often as grounders or liners.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 15, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially in PETCO...
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 15, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's look at it another way.
PECOTA sees the most similar player to Greene as being Tony Bastista, another hacking infielder with pop. Batista was a bit better than Greene to be honest—he hit 41 homers in a season. But let’s look at Batista’s career and see if we can find some hope for Khalil.
Batista was done as a regular at 30. Khalil is 29. Ouch. That’s not a good sign, given that Batista was a better hitter.
His last two seasons as a regular were 2003 and 2004. Prior to 2003, Batista had a career BABIP of .270. In 2003 his BABIP fell to .243. Going into 2004, I suppose fans could have argued whether that was sustainable or not. Surely a guy with a .270 career BABIP in play who was only turning 30 would pull that back up.
In 2004 his BABIP continued to fall, to .230. (this season also featured a new, improved strikeout rate). And then he was done as a regular.
When I went to look at this, I didn’t know what I would find.
But it doesn’t look good:
Done at 30.
A BABIP of .230 in 650 plate appearances.
A BABIP under .240 for over 1300 plate appearances.
by tarakas on May 15, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thing is...
Batista’s decrease in BABIP coincided with his strikeout rate skyrocketing. That is not the situation we have here. Greene’s walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and he’s putting more balls in play, they just haven’t fallen for hits. Hell, his line drive percentage is up.
I think it’s a stretch to compare him to someone like Tony Batista, considering that Batista was a gimmick hitter with a wide-open stance who simply lost the ability to square up the baseball or even hit it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 15, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we talking about the same Tony Batista?
Batista’s strikeout rate, 1996-2002: 17.1%
Batista’s strikeout rate, 2003-2004: 13.6%
So in the years his BABIP dropped, his strikeout rate dropped by 3.5 percentage points. It didn’t skyrocket.
by tarakas on May 15, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a very good argument
but I’d say that Batista’s 2004 career-low BABIP came with a 16.5% LD rate, and a 23.7% infield flyball rate; he wasn’t making good contact. Greene’s got a much higher LD rate and a lower IFFB rate, so he IS making better contact. Also, Batista had posted a lower career BABIP than Greene to that point.
Also, Batista “recovered” a little from his two bad years, posting a .250 then a .280 the next two (truncated) seasons before retiring. I’d also imagine, as fourstick alluded to, that you’d see significant differences in batted ball data (i.e. I bet Batista was making contact with a lot more junk out of the zone than Greene has been; Greene’s been swinging at LESS junk than normal, but Batista from 2002 onwards had a HUGE, HUGE jump in out-of-zone swing% and out-of-zone contact% – conclusion; he was hitting a lot more crap into the dirt and weakly into the air as a result of a change of his approach).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 16, 2009 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine Arguments
You’re probably right.
I guess what annoys me about Greene is the number of people on this site who expected him to have a big year this year. I never could see it—he was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year, and the problem wasn’t something taking him out of Petco was going to resolve. Yeah, Petco is a pitchers park, but even a pitcher’s park doesn’t make a great hitter a terrible one.
Greene has over 2700 plate appearances now in a career that has produced a .303 OBP and .246 batting average and strikeouts in almost 20% of his plater appearances. He’s just not that good of a hitter. In any given six weeks a .lifetime 246 hitter can hit .200—there is no mystery here, just as there is no mystery to why a guy who hit .213 last year could hit .200 to start this year—right now he’s only 9 points off of his average of last year. And that a guy (Greene) who hit 10 homers last year can go a month without a homer is not a shock. Albert is also below his career and last year batting averages, and no one is writing articles analyzing why Albert is down.
The problem with Greene is that when you aren’t very good, a month below your career norms looks awful. Will he get better, probably, assuming it is his BABIP, not his line drive rate, that is fluky here. But the problem is that hitters can easily have months—even whole years—where their batting average fluctuates 30 or more points from their career rates. When you have a .246 career batting average, like Greene does, that means you can easily hit .200 for a stretch.
When Albert hits 40 points below his career average for a month, he hits .294 and few people say anything. When Khalil does it, he hits .206. To me, my real problem with Greene is not that he is this bad. My real problem is he has a career of simply not being very good.
I wish him well, and I’d love it if he hit .265/.345/.485 for the rest of the year/
by tarakas on May 18, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no way any MLB hitter will sustain a .233 BABIP for very long.
you’re kinda assuming the consequence here when you regress khalil’s BABIP to a major leaguer’s. it’s a nitpick, i know, but it’s a lot easier to justify regressing someone’s performance down to major league average than it is to justify regressing up to a major league average. everything with statistics is ultimately bayesian, and then dependent on an underlying population, and there are many, many more people in the world who are below mlb average than there are above mlb average.
by greenback06 on May 15, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not assuming that at all
Inherent in that statement is that I’m regressing Khalil’s BABIP to the worst major leaguer, or, at least, the major leaguer with the worst sustainable BABIP (and it’s fairly clear, at least to my eyes, that Khalil is not the worst MLB hitter – maybe in the lower 25% percentile or something at worst). Find me a major league hitter who’s posted a BABIP that low over a consistent, long-term period.
I agree with your statement about the spread of MLB talent, though, I think that’s been well proven (i.e. it’s a skewed normal distribution, with the median quite a bit lower than the mean) but I don’t feel that’s got anything to do with Khalil. No-one is necessarily saying he’s a league-average hitter (although I believe throughout his career he’s been only a little worse than one), just that he’s not THIS bad, and that his performance is due to bad luck. I just can’t see how someone with a LD rate in the 20s can post a .230 BABIP over any significant sample size without egregious luck.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 16, 2009 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think KG is hurt.
There was mention of a forearm problem causing him to not get any mustard on the ball fielding wise.
Also I would wonder if this could sap his strength and cause his funk at the plate.
Maybe the forearm thingy is a carry over from him breaking his hand. I would guess you throw a punch with the same hand you throw a ball.
If so maybe it is just a flair up or maybe a chronic condition. Although he looked good to me in ST but so did a lot of players.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
by Red Blazer on May 15, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"You throw a punch with the same hand you throw a ball."
Not if you’ve watched Bull Durham you don’t.
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 15, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow he would be batting .253/.332/.422!
I can’t believe with his awesome UZR (near the worst in the league) anyone would bash him?!
by thoran85 on May 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good thing UZR is completely worthless in this small of a sample size!
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah we need a defensive statistic to tell he is playing crappy defense
by thoran85 on May 18, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then why did you cite one?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because his UZR is awful
If you want to say it’s too early to use UZR then just watch him play a game
by thoran85 on May 19, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not predicitive but that doesn't mean it's wrong as a record keeper
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on May 18, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The next time...
Khalil hits something other than a weak groundball or shallow pop fly, well I just may have a stroke. The whole BABIP argument goes out the window when you NEVER hit the ball hard. Never. The pitiful plate appearances have become unbearable.
by LukeMP1186 on May 17, 2009 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he has hit the ball hard this year
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 17, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup . . .
and every time he does, it seems to find a glove somewhere.
As they say . . . sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
by Donut King on May 18, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to argee with Luke here
The whole good/bad luck thing with BABIP is based on him at least hitting some balls that sometimes are not caught, weak ground balls and pop outs do not mean you are unluck just bad.
For Greene to raise his BABIP he will need to start hitting more line drives. Its that simple
by thoran85 on May 18, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
as is pointed out above, Khalil is hitting a 22.9% LD rate, well above average.
saying he needs to hit MORE line drives is silly (for reference, Albert Pujols’ LD rate 2009: 14.9%, career: 19.8%). neither is there a basis to say that khalil just hits weak popups and grounders.
this is again a good reason to not simply “trust your eyes” but to look to stats that systemically track a player’s performance.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem isn't line drives...
Clearly the overwhelming majority of balls classified as line drives are hit well. Just because his line drive percentage is okay doesn’t mean he’s consistently hitting the ball hard.The problem is that he produces so many softly-struck groundballs and flyballs, balls that are rarely going to end up being hits. So yeah, looking just at the amount of line drives he’s hitting compared to his BABIP, it would appear he’s unlucky. But when you see so many eighteen-hoppers to the left side and flyballs to shallow center field, it’s really hard to justify the argument that he’s been unlucky.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yesterday at four PM.
The whole BABIP argument goes out the window when you NEVER hit the ball hard. Never.
Yesterday at nine PM.
Well clearly he has hit the ball hard…at rare times this year.
Today.
Clearly the overwhelming majority of balls classified as line drives are hit well.
So, Khalil hits NO balls hard, he RARELY hits balls hard, or he hits balls classified as LD well (20+% of his balls in play). Which is it?
Once you settle on an argument, I will try to answer it. If you want us to believe that your accounts of Khalil’s at-bats are credible, you need to stop changing your account every few hours.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Now you're being ridiculous...
I was making an extreme statement the first time. It’s hyperbole. I’m not retarded, I know he has hit the ball hard at certain points. Which is why I said what I said the second time when viva responded as if I was making a literal statement. The third wasn’t referring to Khalil specifically, but line drives in general. My point was that he doesn’t hit many hard hit ground balls or fly balls, so even though he hits a line drive one out of every five times he puts it in play, that doesn’t mean he’s been unlucky. My argument hasn’t changed at all.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How
does one quantify a hard-hit ground ball or fly ball? His grounder to short the other day certainly wasn’t a spinning dribbler.
Look, at this point, we all get what you are saying: Khalil can’t hit and he’s not going to hit. Some of us agree, some of us disagree. You’re not adding anything new to the conversation anymore.
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 18, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the whole point...
you can’t quantify it, you can only use your own judgment. If you think he’s hitting a lot of balls well and simply having bad luck, that’s you. I’m seeing otherwise.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're continuing to appeal to your deep understanding of how hard-hit
these flyballs and grounders have been. i have to say i don’t agree. and on reviewing your statements again, i don’t think i was being unfair. you really insisted several times that khalil just hits soft grounders and pop-ups.
nobody can prove to you how hard khalil hits the ball, but you might want to look at this chart. this shows that at busch III, he’s only had three shallow popouts. the remainder have gone to a reasonable depth — in fact the same depth as most of his singles. which again suggests that luck may be a factor.
and before you state the obvious, nobody can tell the velocity of the hits or how long they hung in the air. until we have hit f/x, we won’t know that. but i don’t see anything that supports your overall point.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said to spants above...
If you think he’s hitting a lot of balls well and simply having bad luck, that’s you. I’m seeing otherwise. Again, I hope he turns it around or his “luck” turns around or whatever, but I just don’t see a very good hitter. But in all seriousness, when and if he does that for an extended period of time, please call me out and I’ll own up to being wrong. I hope it comes to that, but I just don’t see it.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you've several times said he hits
“shallow fly balls.” out of 21 fly balls on that hitting chart, there are two infield popups and one fly ball that qualifies as “shallow.” maybe they’ve all been hit on the road — i lack the patience to go through every single stadium, but 18 of those 21 FB are not “shallow” but come at the same depth as his hits. i think you look at his performance with a pretty jaundiced eye.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tom, what I mean by shallow...
is that he hits a lot of fly balls that are of no threat to leave the ballpark and wind up as outs 99.9% of the time, and are often not hit very well. Not shallow in the sense that they wind up fifteen feet behind the shortstop. You’re trying to analyze the literal meaning of my every word and then refuting me on that. The point is that I personally do not feel like he puts a lot of balls in play that have a good chance of ending up as hits, therefore his low BABIP is not a result of bad luck.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
you meant to say “weak” fly balls, or “soft” fly balls. I don’t think tom is misinterpreting the word shallow. I think you are. If you use a word, people tend to understand it based on the actual meaning, not on however you intended it. Write for the reader.
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 18, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What point?
The same point you keep making OVER AND OVER again? That point? Yeah, I acknowledged your point a few posts up. I understand your position completely.
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 18, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think i analyze what you say, not just the literal meaning.
although i find the notion that trying to analyze the literal meaning of your words is somehow wrong a little perplexing.
He hits a lot of soft groundballs and shallow flyballs that are rarely going to find there way as hits.
if you want to change your meaning from “not going to become a hit” to “not leaving the park” then go ahead. or if when you said not “going to find [its] way as [a] hit” i was supposed to read “as [a] homer,” then okay. but then you need to be clearer in what you say.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
After this I'm done...
but looking at the chart you linked, only 3 of his 21 flyouts at Busch were hit anywhere near approaching the warning track. He has two doubles that were hit pretty well, and no home runs. So the vast majority of the balls he hit in the air in the outfield are balls that were not hit deep. Now the opposite of deep is shallow, but I guess that is not specific enough and inappropriate usage according to my two English comp. professors (you and spants). So what I’ll say is that Khalil hits a lot of medium-range fly balls that are of no threat to either a) leave the ballpark, or b) go for any other type of extra base hit.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And before it's pointed out that I only referred to extra-base hits...
any fly ball falling in for a single would clearly be the opposite of unlucky, and Khalil is nothing if not the unluckiest of the unlucky.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please note
a .230 BABIP is a result, at least partially, of bad luck. To argue otherwise is specious.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
When the player in question has a line drive rate over 22%
Then it is completely a result of bad luck.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This comung from the same person...
who just accused me of being “insulting to those who disagree with me”.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well clearly he has hit the ball hard...
at rare times this year. My point was that the vast majority of his plate appearances end with him rolling over on a groundball or a popping something up. All I’m saying is that he was pretty awful last year and he’s been pretty awful this year, so forgive me for not giving him the benefit of the doubt. I’m tired of all the excuses…
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
My point was that the vast majority of his plate appearances end with him rolling over on a groundball or a popping something up
After tonight’s game, FanGraphs has his LD rate at 22.9%. League average is around 19% this year. Khali’s GB rate is 31.3%. League average is around 43% this year. Khalil’s IFFB rate is 7.9%. League average is around 18% this year. Conclusion: Greene has NOT had the majority of his plate appearances end with him rolling over on a groundball or popping something up; in fact, he has been significantly better than the average player at not doing those things.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must admit
I’m amazed at the number of people on this site who have made pretty knee-jerk responses to a player (KG) in a pretty tiny sample size, when all the available evidence seems to suggest he’s been pretty unlucky. I thought folks were smarter than that on this site, tbh…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2009 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So he's been unlucky now for over a year?
Where do you draw the line and say, it’s not Petco, it’s not Busch, it’s not bad luck, but the guy is simply not very good anymore? Call me Joe Morgan, but all the projections and in-depth statistical analysis you can throw around don’t mean a thing when you sit there and look at a guy that was horrible at the plate a year ago and looks even worse now. Look, I REALLY hope I’m wrong. I hope to God he turns it around, it’s nothing personal with the guy, but it’s gotten pretty frustrating to watch him take poor at-bat after poor at-bat to go along with pretty questionable defense. Especially when the other Greene is at least bringing a pretty good glove into the equation. I also don’t understand why those that are defending him are so vehement about it, while a guy like Adam Kennedy had next to no one behind him in these circles. I can understand in 2007, but it was the same way even last year, when he was performing well enough at the plate and still playing pretty good defense. Khalil is doing neither of those and hasn’t for quite awhile now, but somehow I’m being dumb and irrational for suggesting he’s not a very good baseball player anymore.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
In 2755 career plate appearances Greene has hit .246 with a pathetic .303 lifetime OBP, striking out in almost 20% of his plate appearances. His career line is .246/.303/.422. By way of comparison, NL shortstops last year hit .276/.334/.404. So overall, in his career, he has been a below average hitter for a NL shortstop, the 18 extra points of slugging in no way making up for the 31 points of OBP he is down.
I think this is a great enough sample size to make statements like “Khalil Greene is not very good.” If it isn’t, I’m pretty sure that after 3000 career plate appearances he will still be below a typical shortstop offensively, and will at any other number you can name.
I suppose one can say something like “In his career, his above league average LD% means he’s not a bad hitter,” but of course, he has been a below average hitter, because he makes an out almost 70% of the time, whether or not they are line drives, they are still outs, and that is too many outs to be good.
by tarakas on May 18, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over his career
Greene has been an above-average hitter for a shortstop, as per FanGraphs. Of course, shortstops hit pretty appallingly as a group, and his career defence is slightly below average, so overall he’s been somewhere close to league average, in his average season. I don’t think anyone’s arguing that he’s a superstar, but he’s been worth nearly 2 wins a year (even including his terrible 2008) for the last five years, which is more than Tyler Greene or Brendan Ryan are going to produce.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to consider Petco when talking about Greene's offensive achievements
For his career, despite below average offensive numbers, he has only been about 12 runs worse than an average player who plays his games at Petco.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 18, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't referring specifically to pop-ups on the infield...
So I guess I’m somehow missing all the line drives he’s finding gloves with.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which is why it's good to reference stats and not just what your eyes tell you.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless of ambiguous percentages...
I know the game well enough to know that he hasn’t been unlucky this year, he’s just not been very good. Just like he wasn’t unlucky last year…
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
either you're using a disingenous argument,
or you spend a LOT of time watching baseball.
because i highly doubt you personally watched all 105 games khalil appeared in for another TEAM and all 423 PA’s he took, or even a sufficiently high sample of them, to say whether he was unlucky or just bad.
in point of fact, his BABIP in the worst season of his life last year was .262 — quite low, but still .045 higher than his current BABIP. which tends to reinforce VEP’s point that he will do better — maybe not great — but better.
relying on arguments like “I know the game well enough” is weak and insulting to those who disagree with you. it suggests that you don’t think other people know the game as well as you do.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 18, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not trying to insult or talk down to anyone...
And no, I didn’t watch him play every day last year. But I look at a .599 OPS for last year and hear people blame Petco, and I look at a .592 OPS so far this year and hear people blame it on bad luck. He played in Petco from 2004 to 2007 and his OPS in that time was .757. Suddenly there’s a severe nosedive, and I’m supposed to believe it was due to the same home ballpark he had played in the previous four years? He’s still in the funk now, and I’m supposed to believe he’s unlucky because his line drive percentage is okay? Like I said above, that doesn’t mean he’s consistently hitting the ball hard. He hits a lot of soft groundballs and shallow flyballs that are rarely going to find there way as hits.
by LukeMP1186 on May 18, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given how well you know the game
You’ll presumably know that it’s not all that uncommon for ball players to have about 6 months of bad hitting due, in large part, to bad luck. That’s basically all he’s done.
As mentioned above, Greene isn’t a good hitter. He’s probably a below average hitter. But he’s not the worst hitter in the league, which is what he’s looked like lately due to BAD LUCK.
I just cannot understand how people cannot comprehend that it is possible, in the game of baseball, for players to have bad results due to luck over what is still a pretty small sample size. Greene’s had 500 ABs since his career year in 2007. All it takes is about 20 flyballs or LDs that randomly found an outfielder’s glove in that period to turn into hits and he raises his average, OBP, and slugging percentage back up to his career level.
Is it really, truly, that inconceivable that in the myriad possibilities presented by the game, that one hitter could have, over a course of one full season’s worth of games, just over one hit a week less than “average” by bad luck? Especially when you must be fully aware that a basically random “down season” has happened to hundreds of other uninjured, otherwise utterly normal players over the course of their career?
Toss a coin a million times and, at some point, it’ll come up heads a dozen times in a row. Equally, over all the millions of MLB seasons played by the tens of thousands of baseball players in history, now and then someone’s going to have unlucky ones, it’s not even that uncommon. Yadier Molina had an awful year with the bat in 06, far below his true talent level, in main part thanks to bad luck. The key thing is that the PERIPHERAL skills and statistics of a player can often illuminate that fact, when the human eye and naked human mental bias cannot ascertain that a player has had maybe one hit a week taken away by abnormal fortune. That’s what people are arguing here.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 18, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You still have not admitted,
that a .230 babip with a 22+ LD rate is horrible luck.
Personally, i have seen khalil take some good ABs and he seems to be seeing a lot more pitches than he has in the past. Does that statement mean anything at all? No it doesn’t, and it is still meaningless if i throw out tautologies like ‘i know the game’ or ’I’ve been watching a lot’.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 21, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know the game.
And I’ve been watching a lot.
Oh, and I’m not a big stats guy, either.
But I DO agree with you. SonOfJorEl has had TERRIBLE luck. For whatever reason, every time I watch him bat, I can hear Monty’s Big Moment from Major League 2 running through my head (not a good movie, but this was my favorite scene from it):
Doyle: “Take over for me, Monty. I’m . . . in the bag.” (thump)
Monty: “ME?!”
(awkward pause)
Monty: “Line drive . . . caught.”
It just seems to happen every time I watch him bat these days. It’s really awful to watch. You want to tell the guy to hit it somewhere else, but really . . . what are we to do here? It’s just awful luck.
Anyway . . . I’ve never been a guy to convince others to agree with me. So good luck with that one.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
by Donut King on May 22, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was onboard with the Greene trade.
I thought it was a sensible gamble at the time. So far, it doesn’t seem to be working out all that great, but at least it is only a one-year gamble. It is still early, so he has time to prove that viva is right. Maybe this is just bad luck.
Unfortunately, his defense is a concern. I’m not a fan of the approach that the team has taken this year towards defense. They have seemed to be extremely willing to trade defense for offensive potential. The problem is that defense, like speed, should never go into a slump. Pitchers hit dead-arm periods. Even the best hitters go through slumps. The reason teams build around defense is because it can carry a team through those down-turns.
Even the best Khalil Greene would have been sacrificing some defense for offense. With the Skip experiment in action, this seems like it was a bad idea. Right now, our pitching staff needs the defense up the middle more than we need the potential for 70 RBI from the SS position.
by etp_stl on May 19, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree on the defence
and at least Skip’s hitting. It’s fair enough to platoon the better gloves (T Greene, maybe Ryan) at SS for now until Greene heats up a bit, I think. I’m just not so sure about all the nonsensical “DFA him, this was a terrible move” posts after one and a half months.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 20, 2009 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not pointing at you specifically,
but it seems like the defense first argument would have been to sign Izturis. Speaking of defensive streaks and slumps, his entire career is extremely up and down in that way.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 21, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The defense first argument
is to turn the position over to Ryan/T Greene, who are the same player as Izturis (in fact, in the time I’ve seen T Greene at SS, I think he’s a better defender than Iz2, I’m SERIOUSLY impressed with his glovework, arm and athleticism, and his minor league scouting reps and TZR bear out that impression to some extent), and save the $3.5m that he’s earning in Baltimore this year. Another option would have been Craig Counsell, in his career an absolutely amazingly consistent, excellent defender anywhere in the infield, and a similarly crappy hitter to Iz2. We could probably have got him cheaper than Cesar too.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 22, 2009 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
etp -- good to see you. haven't see your wolf-bear hybrid thing around here for a
while.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 19, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Khalil is manic...
… or doesn’t anyone else read the P-D?
apparently the Baha’i faith includes self-flagellation if you aren’t good at baseball.
by kindred on May 19, 2009 8:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I try to ignore the P-D whenever possible.
Except for Rick Hummel. For obvious reasons. And Jeremy Rutherford during hockey season.
Anyway . . . I did glance at a story about his “anxiety”. And I really don’t know what to make of it unless he’s: A) put on the DL to get treatment, or B) sent packing.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
by Donut King on May 20, 2009 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mania =/= anxiety
but how kind of you to insult both the mentally ill and members of a religious group, all in the same post.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
truth is...
… we don’t know what he’s got. but physical self-abuse is more common in the bi-polar than the anxious.
and i wasn’t insulting anybody. i was, however, making light of the many articles and quotes over the years about Khalil’s uncommon faith and how it keeps him “grounded” and emotionally stable.
by kindred on May 20, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rob Neyer commented on Joe Strauss' article
and i think he’s right. if KG is having greinke-esque problems the best thing for him is probably to get out of baseball for a while to get his anxiety issues in order. it turned out pretty well for greinke. however, it wouldn’t help the cards for 2009.
by n0thums on May 20, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm sure khalil appreciates your armchair psychology.
also, the “haha, i guess your ‘uncommon faith’ wasn’t so great after all!!”
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 20, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
enough, dude...
… you’re not representing me fairly. if i were really trying to make fun of Khalil or Baha’i, i could certainly do a much, much better job.
i have some sympathy for the guy. he needs help, and probably has for years. but it’s not as if he’s the first person in history with anxiety/bipolar tendencies. he has the means and resources to get the help he needs. if he hasn’t yet done so, even after destroying his hand and nearly his career in the middle of last season, then… make your own judgment, i guess.
by kindred on May 20, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then . . . possibly he suffers from mental illness which may make it hard to
seek the assistance that he needs?
not my job to “represent you.” it seems like you made a couple of cheap shots and kicked a guy when he was down. if you can’t defend your own words, then don’t blame me for calling you on it.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 20, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
it is your job...
… to respond to what i said, and not invent opinions for me that i don’t have. i never insulted Khalil, or disparaged him in any way. everything i have said is true. i admit the comment about self-flagellation was flippant, but… this is the situation, is it not? it was not inaccurate and was, as i expressed more clearly later, a reference to the dozens of cutesy articles written about Khalil and his uncommon faith (which you then put in scare quotes, although i don’t know why; it is an uncommon religion, and there have been a bunch of cutesy articles about it).
Khalil has some sort of disorder that makes him get overly upset with himself for not being able to play baseball well. he needs to get help for it, but let’s not make more of it than it is. he is still able to function as an adult, he is capable of seeking help. he acknowledges that he is often over-anxious, and he admits to self-abuse. for all we know, he IS in some sort of therapy, or is on some kind of medication.
i’m sorry, but i can’t offer any more defense for 2 or 3 sentences than that. that’s what i said, that’s what i meant, none of it was factually wrong or insulting.
in any any case, i’m sure he appreciates learning from you that he’s so mentally deranged that he cannot make sound decisions for himself. armchair psychology, indeed.
by kindred on May 20, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"i admit the comment about self-flagellation was flippant."
isn’t that the problem? isn’t being “flippant” about somebody else’s suffering and the tenets of their religion the problem?
so why am I the bad guy to say, gosh, you shouldn’t be so flippant?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 20, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
look, man...
… nobody has been more snide in this exchange than you, so get off your goddamn high-horse.
you didn’t say, “gosh, you shouldn’t be so flippant”. instead, you mockingly accused me of doing something i didn’t do, and of having an attitude that i don’t have, with added insinuations of bigotry just for spice. the best possible way to view your response is that it was an unfair attack on my character, and an overreaction. which is why i reacted by saying that your response was an unfair overreaction. to which you responded with more disrespect, insinuation, and mockery.
as for whether flippancy is warranted or not… i suppose that’s in the eye of the beholder. i wasn’t being flippant about Khalil’s suffering, and as an atheist i reserve the right to be flippant about any religion that i please. but it wasn’t malicious, and way worse things are said in the GDT every single day on this site, about all sorts of players. worse things were said about Khalil in the P-D (e.g. Bernie saying that he should immediately retire), and you said that Khalil is incapable of making rational decisions. both of those statements are much stronger than anything i said, and they are both unwarranted given the information that is publicly available.
but those were non-flippant serious statements, and you and Bernie clearly care so much more about Khalil than me, so i guess that’s alright.
by kindred on May 20, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
guys can you just shut up about this please?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 20, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your self-righteousness...
is reaching near epic proportions.
by LukeMP1186 on May 20, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow, I was scrolling through this to gauge the
generally reaction to K Greene’ s psych situation and instead found what is an uncharacteristically (for this site) antagonistic tone.
I do believe this is one of the most untypical responses to a post I’ve seen at Viva El Birdos.
I guess I can take solace in that it never fell off the cliff into juvenile stupidity as in so many other blogs.
Deep breaths dudes and dudettes, deep breaths.
Moving on- it appears the Cards are in a position where the only decent thing to do is ride out the storm with Greene and hope for the best.
Having read the initial P-D article, I have a difficult time determining if they’re talking about anxiety in the clinical sense or the more commonly accepted colloquial definition of anxiety. The whole thing was a bit cryptic.
If it is in the clinical sense- I’m going to assume that he is under psychological guidance right now and as part of his therapy it may very well have been determined the most beneficial to him to leave him on the team. If that is true, no public statement to that effect will be forthcoming. That would be kept private.
My point is that it would be very difficult on how the Cards are handling this w/o more clarity on the nature of his situation (which wouldn’t/shouldn’t/needn’t be made public) and the details of how it’s being treated (ditto).
by Scarecrow7775 on May 22, 2009 8:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The argument ended two days ago...
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 22, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
new article about khalil
Teammates noticed Greene punishing himself during the season’s first road trip. When one Cardinal player approached Greene in the Wrigley Field dugout to ask what he was doing, Greene responded of his frustration, “It’s the only way I can get it out.” Last weekend Greene left PNC Park in Pittsburgh with one hand bleeding. He had not sought treatment from the team’s training staff. One person in uniform described Greene’s struggle as “scary.”
cutting or what? heavy shit, either way
by prophetjohn on May 24, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
now that i think about it
he’s always wearing long sleeves.
hope this guy gets some help. this kind of thing is infinitely bigger than the cardinals, baseball, his contract
by prophetjohn on May 24, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow that's awful
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 24, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld sidebar: "Cards shopping Khalil"
WTF after the PD article implies FO is behind him?
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
by gocards62 on May 24, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gammons said the Cardinals should see if the Red Sox have interest...
which makes no sense whatsoever, considering Boston may be the worst possible destination for someone with Khalil’s mental issues. Renteria couldn’t even handle the pressure there…
by LukeMP1186 on May 24, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that I read it again...
He phrases it as if the Cardinals had already gauged Boston’s interest:
It made sense for the Cardinals to float Khalil Greene’s name toward the Red Sox, whose shortstops lead the majors in errors and who won’t get Jed Lowrie back until after the All-Star Break at the earliest. But Greene, who had been dropped behind Brendan Ryan and Tyler Greene by manager Tony La Russa, has anxiety problems, so that is that.
by LukeMP1186 on May 24, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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