Todd Wellemeyer, Zach Duke, and the Case of the Missing Home Runs
by DanUpBaby on May 12, 2009 8:30 AM EDT
193 comments
Alright—that felt like the respectful amount of time between an Sportscenter anchor-approved Wild One and the resumption of the day-to-day grind of the baseball season. Here's to a two-hour win tonight, courtesy noted efficiency expert Todd Wellemeyer and Zach Duke, who the Cardinals will see for the five-hundredth time in this young season.
Duke looked like a lost cause last year, and the year before—between the end of his adequate sophomore season and his opening-series assignment against the Cards he'd struck out all of 3.9 batters per nine innings and gone 8-22, a big waste of his rare opportunity to begin his baseball card with that sub-2 ERA. But now he's started off 2009 with a series of solid outings, most notably his CGSO against the Astros, and he's a Solid Young Pitcher again—better yet, a Solid Young Pitcher Finding His Way.
If you like your endpoints even more arbitrary, Duke's been pitching pretty well since August of 2008. By then the strikeouts have come back, and the incredible hittability, as a result, has finally waned. But even in this time span his strikeout rate hasn't threatened five batters a game—his effectiveness isn't an illusion, but the degree to which he's been effective is, a product of his memorable 2005 and the way he's been on from opening day this year. Right now he's a left-handed Kyle Lohse, if he adds another strikeout.
#
Interesting story from Jeff Passan about the Cardinals' starters' early success, which could be placed pretty squarely on the crumbling shoulders of a low home run rate. Todd Wellemeyer immediately nominates himself for the self-aware athlete quote of the year, non-Brian Bannister division:
"Total, absolute, chaotic randomness," said Todd Wellemeyer, winning the hearts of the statistically minded. "All we do is try to keep the ball down. Sometimes you give up home runs. Sometimes they hit line drives. Sometimes they go right at people. Sometimes they get underneath the line drives and they're home runs. That's all there is to it."
Sensing that something was wrong, he immediately added, "But really, I'm just taking it a day at a time, pitch by pitch, season by season, lifetime by lifetime, on an interview by interview basis. You're not quoting me, are you? One hundred and ten percent."
Home run rate is a tough nut to crack—all of the intuitive truisms about them don't seem to be so true, and the stakes are so low, floating from 0.7 to 1.2 or something like that, that two bad pitches can ruin a homer-stingy week or month.
All this is interesting, because right now Zach Duke and Todd Wellemeyer are allowing just one home run per nine between them—two home runs each in six starts each. I try to avoid the idea of regression to the mean as brutal, orthogenetic menace, out to right statistical wrongs and fix those who are due for it. But really, these two guys are due for it.
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philosophy in the morning
The chaos of pitching.
The real nature of home runs…
Home runs are evil.
It’s a different mindset… and it comes down to execution.
….It’s the Cards Veda!
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on May 12, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A particular aircraft has a 1 in 1,000 chance of crashing
It has had 999 successful flights without any problem. What are the chances it crashes on the 1,000th flight?
Somehow this seemed like an appropriate comparison to Todd’s HR rate stuff…
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 12, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
I was thinking more along the lines of:
A coin has a 50% chance to be heads or tails, for the last 10 tries it has been heads, what is the chance of getting heads again?
Each time our pitchers go out there they “defy the odds” by not giving up HRs, but the chance of them giving up a HR vs not giving one up doesn’t change, they don’t suddenly become “due for regression” or something simply because they haven’t given up HRs, if the chance is set in stone than it won’t change from pitch to pitch.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree--
—I’m not a math major but I do know about the gambler’s fallacy. It’s just interesting to see two guys who have heretofore defied the odds, one of whom just said that it was impossible to keep doing it, take the mound against each other. And probably give up zero home runs.
by DanUpBaby on May 12, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Playing in
a non-bandbox ballpark (I’m looking at you, Zinzinnati!) should also help the Cards’ staff keep their HR rate low. How would you like to have to pitch half your season in Cincy, Philly, Houston, or (possibly) New Yankee Stadium?
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on May 12, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coors?
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the D'backs' stadium the best offensively in the league, other than Coors?
by mattybobo on May 12, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes...
except for that last part.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Wow, I did not know that. Are you referring to a particular ranking or is this just established now?
by mattybobo on May 12, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I recall...
it being the most hitter friendly at least last year.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
before I get corrected...
it appears the ballpark in Arlington was the best bandbox of 2008…Chase Field was #2.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See my post below
The ESPN park factor has Chase leading in Runs, HR, H, its 2nd in doubles and 6th in triples and 3rd in BBs…how the hell does a stadium affect BBs?
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a pitcher's gotta be...
scared to throw anything close to the plate.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I say todd gives up four HRs,
scattering zero base hits, walking 2 and stranding them both, pitches a complete game, strikes out 9, and by the end of the game his BABIP drops to .300, his K/9 goes up to 6.5/9, his hr/9 sits at 1.2, and all is right in the world.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 12, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
?
how can you give up four HRs yet zero base hits?
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think hazel meant zero other hits...
but I dunno.
by stlfan on May 12, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Todd called a "do-over"
Since there is no reliable test, Selig passed a new rule to combat the use of HGH where each pitcher can call two do-overs per game.
by ubeddie on May 12, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant base hits in the non TTO sense.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 12, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard the Sox are looking for a LH DH
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9564876/Here's-how-easy-it-would-be-to-replace-Big-Papi
So I know this has a chance to turn into the “Giants are looking for a LH 1B” thing for this year but I wanted to bring up the discussion.
In the article Rosenthal mentions Ankiel, though I think Duncan is the more likely trade candidate, the Red Sox are also looking for a young catcher. This made me wonder, could we trade Ankiel or Duncan plus Anderson to the Red Sox for anything? Ortiz wouldn’t have a place to play here since I doubt he can play in the OF or at 3B, I doubt the Sox would trade their 3B or corner OF, and they are looking for a SS. To me that leaves us with 2B or Pitching to trade. Though the GOB don’t always work logically it seems.
Any ideas what a trade like this would look like? I seriously doubt it would happen but it is still fun to think about.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ortiz has a no-trade clause and over $22MM left on his deal
Plus, we have Pujols. You are absolutely right that he would have no place here.
We are not trading Chris Duncan (and probably shouldn’t given his offensive production and low price tag) and the Sox wouldn’t want him with Lars Andersen looming large in the minors. Ankiel is a more likely bet, IMO, and I’d be thrilled to death if we could get Justin Masterson, despite his rough starts of late, for Ankiel. However, if we are in first place, I don’t see Ank going anywhere either. I mean, TLR spent the night at his hospital bedside…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Penny
The Red Sox may soon have a shortage of pitching. Penny is supposedly an asset that could be available. His $5M salary is (all things considered) pretty reasonable.
But I’m not certain the Cardinals need yet another #3-caliber starter, especially at that price
by JWO on May 12, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Penny is healthy, I'd suggest he is a #2 starter
In 2007, he threw 208 innings, had a 3.03 ERA, struck out 135, walked 73, and FIP’d 3.63, which isn’t all that far off his FIP from 2004-2006. His AL starts haven’t been of that caliber, to be sure, but there’s a possibility that Penny could return to sub-.400 ERA form. Although, he could have jumped the shark, too…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Semantics
His value is debatable. He has a career 97-76 record. But you cherry-picked his best season in 2007. Last year he was 6-9 with a 6.28 ERA. I still think at 30 years old, he’s a good #3. He also is reasonably affordable at five million.
An Ankiel for Penny trade has potential (both one-year rentals), but I don’t see it happening.
by JWO on May 12, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not only did he cherry pick his best season...
but he also looked at his most recent HEALTHY season, which was the whole point of his post. He also noted that his FIP form 04-06 were close to his 2007 level.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FIP
I cherry-picked his most recent, healthy season, which, in terms of FIP is pretty indicative of his 2003-2007 performance. FIPs by year…
2003: 3.92
2004: 3.59
2005: 3.64
2006: 3.89
2007: 3.63
For comparison’s sake, Adam Wainwright had a FIP of 3.78 last season.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It may not have sounded like it...
but I was trying to support your post.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I thought you were, but hit “reply” to your post for some reason. I just thought I’d throw that in at the end of the discussion. Sorry about its positioning.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cool...
just wanted to stay off your bad side.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
An FIP in the mid 3's would make him an extremely solid #2
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 12, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards/Nats
Sorry to be off-topic, but got an email from the Nats saying that the Sunday game that was rained out between the Cards and Nats has been rescheduled for Thursday, 23 July at 7:05 ET. I know some people on here were going to some of the games, so wanted to get the word out if anyone else had had tickets for the Sunday game.
The email said that you could use your tickets from the rainout for the same seats to the make-up or exchange them for any other game, excluding when the Red Sox come to town.
That game gives the Nats 25 straight games after the All-star break and 18 for the Cards. I had heard that there was a requirement to get approval from the Players’ Assoc. if you play over 22 in a row or something, so it had looked like they might not make it up unless necessary at the end of the year. Glad to see they will be coming back to DC though.
by brafi on May 12, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You know what this means
We MUST have 13 pitchers for the months of July and August.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Before anyone ruins their keyboards
a nice thing about this team is that we’ve got a slew of major-league quality players around with options remaining. Plenty of fresh athletes to shuttle around.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any way you look at it
25 straight games is going to suck for the Nationals. Poor guys.
by JWO on May 12, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Less time to brood
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan's Rehab
From the P-D:
La Russa plans to retain 13 pitchers at least through the Pirates series. Infielder Brendan Ryan is eligible to leave the disabled list Friday.
Ryan, who was playing brilliant defense when sidelined April 29 in Atlanta, will ride shotgun with general manager John Mozeliak to Memphis this morning before beginning a brief rehab assignment tonight to test his strained right hamstring.
Interesting that they are thinking of sending a pitcher down when Ryan comes back. This would, theoretically leave a bench consisting of LaRue, T-Greene, Ryan, Shane Robinson, and Thurston/Barden. So, we’d have two light-hitting backup shortstops and then one of either Thurston or Barden. Presumably Robinson will be sent back to Memphis once Ankiel is activated. However, I wonder if they’ll send T-Greene down instead to make room for Rick. Thoughts?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Infielders in the outfield
it’s going to happen this year. it’s jut a matter of time.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on May 12, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
start a veb pool
for that and a position player pitching.
by spencegrif on May 12, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume you mean other than...
Skip.
Or is he an OFer in the IF?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
As I’m sure we all recall, Skip is an OFer masquerading as an IFer.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hasn't it already?
/skip schumaker
by Willie McGee's Twin on May 12, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4159870
posted this in the manny thread but for those who dont read it…
here is the expert that seems missed on tv etc… we know what he took, but heres the part I had not heard…
Within the records was a prescription written for the drug human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) — No. 55 on the list of banned performance-enhancing substances in the policy. The drug is mainly used for female fertility issues, but it is best known among male steroid users as a substance that can help kick-start the body’s production of natural testosterone, which is stymied when using synthetic testosterone (aka steroids).
The synthetic testosterone in Ramirez’s body could not have come from the hCG, according to doping experts, and so suddenly Ramirez had two drugs to answer for. Worse still for the ballplayer, MLB now had a document showing he had been prescribed a banned substance. This was iron-clad evidence that could secure a 50-game suspension.
any sympathy i may have had or thoughts that maybe he misremembered or couldnt read or anything else…is gone
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on May 12, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Me, too
You’d think that I’d learn my lesson about giving benefits of the doubt to these ballplayers after a few scaldings. I suppose I still believe in the “Wait and See” approach, because the facts will come to light eventually. This, instead of making inferences on shreds of information and evidence. The facts have come to light and Manny is red-handed. The synthetic testosterone pushes it over the edge. It’s clear that he was willingly and intentionally using banned substances. What I found interesting was that MLB felt they didn’t have grounds back in the Spring, when he had high levels of artificial testosterone. However, they investigated, found the prescription for hCG, and then had an airtight case against him that stymied even the promised legal battle on Manny’s behalf. Oh, the tangled web PED users weave.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did MLB think they were going to find a prescription?
I actually think getting an airtight case against a player first is a good idea, but I wonder if MLB had an idea they were going to get (or at least had a good likelihood of obtaining) hard evidence.
by saladdays on May 12, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it sounds like from the article they were just investigating
the high level but within grounds of the agreement can look at all medical records and then found the prescription and there peeps in montreal said theres no way this hcg alone elevated the level to this high..
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on May 12, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this makes me think
that I hope we play the dodgers a lot during these 50 games
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't play them until Manny's back from suspension
I read a story (can’t remember where) about how different teams would be affected by his suspension. IIRC, the Cards are the only NL Central team that doesn’t play the Dodgers in the next 50 games; I think we get them in mid July, 1-2 weeks after Manny comes back.
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great
well, maybe he’ll suck when he gets back (yeah right)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haven't you heard?
The Dodgers are so much better without Manny. Just ask the sportswriters in LA. He is a clubhouse cancer and a terrible defender and the Boogey-man. Plus he is only OPSing 1.133 this year.
Plaschke:
“The Dodgers [should] get smart and move on.
They can celebrate what they have, a great young team in a lousy division. Andre Ethier, not Ramirez, leads the team in RBIs. Ethier is tied with Ramirez for the lead in home runs. Orlando Hudson has scored more runs and collected more hits. James Loney (emphasis mine) does little things Ramirez never did."
So, yeah. Dodgers with Manny < Dodgers without Manny plus the little things James Loney does. He does a TON of little, given his 7 XBH in 121 ABs this season.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plaschke is fucking intolerable
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on May 12, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was it Plachke or Chass who said Colletti deserved an extension?
And, one of the primary reasons was his handling of the re-signing of Manny?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mr. Chass...pretty outrageous.
Ned Colletti, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ general manager, is in the last year of a four-year contract, which also includes a mutual option for a fifth year. When a Los Angeles newspaper recently asked Frank McCourt, the team’s owner, if he planned to exercise the option, he lauded Colletti for the job he has done but declined to talk about the option.
Instead McCourt talked about the need to go further than the Dodgers have in recent years and win the World Series. "That is a promise we have made to our fans," he said.
What can the man possibly be thinking? He should have instantly said of course, we will exercise the option; why wouldn’t we?
Since a previous Dodgers ownership (the Fox Group) foolishly fired Fred Claire in 1998, the Dodgers had a succession of poor choices as general manager. Kevin Malone and Paul DePodesta (McCourt’s first general manager) particularly stood out.
With Colletti, though, the Dodgers finally got it right. They reached the playoffs in two of Colletti’s first three years, winning the National League West title last year, and they are poised to win it again this season.
And for individual achievement, Colletti held his ground in the Manny Ramirez negotiations this past winter and induced Scott Boras, Ramirez’s agent, to blink first.
It would be in McCourt’s best interests to exercise Colletti’s option – or give him a new contract, which would be the more intelligent way to go – because if he should let Colletti go, he would probably bungle the choice for his successor.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this a quote?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 12, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there should be some sort of sportswriter probation.
excessive misuse of the RBI statistic precludes you from using it for 6 months.
someday, these guys will figure out that if you hit 4th, 5th or 6th with high OBP guys in front of you, you’ll end up driving in runs if you sneeze hard at the plate. pujols puts up good RBI totals batting in the 3 slot, but he’s Albert Pujols.
gordo does the exact same thing with RBIs.
.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same story with runs scored..
Talk about a stat that is pretty dependent on your supporting cast
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What would you have them use?
VORP? OPS? WS? I mean, these are sportswriters, man! Where do you think these guys live, in their mom’s basement?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
lol
I just wish I didn’t hate baseball and would actually watch a game now and then instead of sitting at my computer in superman pajamas talking about esoteric analysis with my online-only friends between sips of Tang.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
you said Tang
/loving my inner Beavis
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on May 12, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
superman pajamas & tang?
man i’ve been doing it all wrong. i’ve been wearing a spiderman onezie & sipping vodka, rum & bourbon. why didn’t somebody tell me this earlier? golly i feel like an ass.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
by gdm426 on May 12, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Praising Andre Ethier
Wasn’t Plaschke the same guy who was pushing Juan Pierre over Ethier in the OF last year?
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 12, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
happy birthday, BTW
I didn’t like plaschke on around the horn either
by STLRegalia on May 12, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks man
I’m a quarter of the way to the number of years in a row the Cubs haven’t won a World Series.
And Plaschke (as well as Mariotti) are intolerable on Around the Horn. I can’t say I like any of their guests (maybe Adande…maybe) but I can honestly say I hate Plaschke and Mariotti
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 12, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's hoping in 50 years
you’ll be saying halfway.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
oh bad
memories of calculus.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
by albrtfn on May 12, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 50 years, he'll be saying "three-sevenths of the way," right?
Because, in 50 years, the Cubs won’t have won a title for 176 years and he’ll be 75 years old.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No...
In 50 years, the Cubs won’t have won a title in 151 years, and jd will be 75. Roughly halfway…
by LukeMP1186 on May 12, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hit the quarter century mark in '09 too
For some reason I liked woody paige. Probably because nobody else did.
by STLRegalia on May 12, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hilarious
Andre Ethier, not Ramirez, leads the team in RBIs. Ethier is tied with Ramirez for the lead in home runs. Orlando Hudson has scored more runs and collected more hits.
So the guy hitting behind Ramirez leads the team in RBI’s and the hitter in front of Ramirez scores the most runs… Sounds like Ramirez is doing his job, as are the batters around him in the lineup.
(He’s a cheating jackass, yes, but a hell of a hitter…)
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
Interesting story from Jeff Passan about the Cardinals’ starters’ early success, which could be placed pretty squarely on the crumbling shoulders of a low home run rate.
That sounds a lot like the theme of a FanPost, that a certain VEB poster just made.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 12, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I predict that
the duke and the colonel give up one home run each today
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The mang
I tried posting this as a fanshot and fanpost but keep getting errors with the image.
Here is a plot of Pujols career WAR against the pace setters. I say pace setters because the combination of Mantle, Mays, and Aaron set the highest (or maximum) seasonal WAR among HOFers since 1955, sorted by best seasons first. Also note that the first few seasons of each of them is also missing since the data is limited to the Retrosheet era (post 1955).
While we all knew just how awesome Pujols is and that we are witness to greatness, Mantle just looks amazing (and I wish I knew how he was between ’51 and ’55).
by JBrew on May 12, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
That image is password protected.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad, getting used to editgrid
Can you see it now?
by JBrew on May 12, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is this read?
Maybe it’s the post lunch coma but I’m having a hard time understanding the chart. Is each year the WAR that player contributed per year or are the lines backwards and intended to show total accumulated WAR increasing per year?
Right now I’m seeing AP was ~11 WAR in year 1 and consistently declining to ~6 War in year 8.
by birdo rojo on May 12, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It shows their Nth best season
So you will see their best season, followed by 2nd best and so on
by Glowsticks on May 12, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is sorted by season
It’s the same as Glowsticks said. Take each players WAR and sort from best to worst. The 11 WAR in year 1 was his best season and the 6 WAR in year 8 was his worst.
Its easier to visualize than a year by year (or age by age) plot since you will have peaks at different seasons (ages).
Some baselines to remember (from Sky at BtB):
0 WAR = replacement level
2 WAR = average player
4 WAR = borderline allstar
6 WAR = probably best at position
8 WAR = strong MVP candidate
10 WAR = HOF type players
by JBrew on May 12, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow - it does help to read
There it was in the not so fine print. Darn food comas, need more caffeine. Thanks!
To my eyes, Mays is even more impressive than Mantle, despite the fact his top seasons didn’t reach the peaks that Mickey’s did. To be that good for that many years is incredible. It definitely would be interesting to see those 5 years did impact Mickey.
by birdo rojo on May 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Using that rough guideline, Aaron was "probably best at position"
for 16 years, and Mays for 14. Damn.
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming we haven't seen his best season yet...
Each season that is closer to that 11 WAR rather than 6-ish WAR will make him more and more impressive. Will time catch up to Albert and prevent him from being one of the best of the best? It’ll be fun to watch.
by mattybobo on May 12, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This graph brings up an interesting thought
There’s always that debate about what kind of numbers Griffey would have put up had he been able to stay healthy…
Well, what kind of numbers would Mantle have put up if he’d quit drinking at age 25? What if he hadn’t twisted his knee and torn cartilage in his rookie World Series in 1951? In the minors he was timed at 3.1 seconds from the batters box to first base — that’s Ichiro fast. Seriously, look at his decline after age 32 — it’s very similar to Griffey’s and developed from years of hard drinking and on-field injuries. I have no doubt he would have hit 700 homers had he been able to play his entire career healthy and had been a teetotaler. He’ll always be the only Yankee I truly am fond of, but I always think about what if…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't he say something like "i would have taken better care of myself if i'd known how good i was"?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love Roger Clemens
He says he wouldn’t juice because his family has a history of heart disease and then cites his STEP-dad dying of a heart attack.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on May 12, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Biology FAIL
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 12, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Reminds me of the "Who shot Mr. Burns?" Simpsons episode.
Marge: The police have such a strong case against Homer. Mr. Burns said
he did it, they have Homer’s DNA -
Lisa: They have Simpson DNA! It could have come from any of us, except
you, since you’re a Bouvier.
Marge: No! No, no, when I took your father’s name, I took everything
that came with it – including DNA.
Lisa: [giving up] OK, Mom.
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard that this morning on...
Mike and Mike. Overall he did okay I guess, but I have no doubt he was a user.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
and it was ok for his WIFE to take steroids even though HER DAD died of heart disease. Damn, maybe he should just shut the f*** up and go away.
I’m sorry Rog, but it’s hard to believe that you’re the only one telling the truth when 90% of the stuff that comes out of your mouth is pure bullshit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Moneyball da movie
Saw this link on MLBTradeRumors and figured I would share with you guys. More info on the Moneyball movie. We knew that Brad Pitt would play Beane but now we know that some A’s staff will play themselves. Might make an interesting movie.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/05/11/SPTI17IHTB.DTL
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
guess I should have previewed
Looks like the link got cut off, for those that don’t like copy and paste here it is again
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is going to be annoying
All the people who didn’t read/understand the book won’t see/understand the movie and are about to start spilling thousands of words of lunacy all over again.
Identify inefficiency. Exploit said inefficiency.
I wish FJM was still around.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBPPPPPPP YOU IDIOT!@##@@!!!!
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on May 12, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mose?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on May 12, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm excited
Brad Pitt as Billy Beane, David Justice as himself, and a CGI Bill James as mystical narrator. Sounds like gold to me.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
twist ending
in the end it’s revealed that Billy Beane, mild-mannered ex-baseball player, and Bill James, CGI purveyor of radical wisdom, are in fact the same person, manifestations of one tortured soul.
by DanUpBaby on May 12, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And in Moneyball II: This Time It's Personal
Bill-y Beames takes 10 single guys and teaches them how to get “on base”.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on May 12, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that was "Hitch 2: Moneyball"??
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starring Kevin "Bill" James
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you get kicked out of the game and are forced to wear a fake mustache and glasses to get back in.
by all4tookie on May 12, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the Joe Morgan director's cut
it’s revealed that Billy Beane and Michael Lewis are the same person. The denouement involves a talking dog, Batman, and the Harlem Globetrotters.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and a suicide squeeze play.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And a slide piece
And Dave Concepcion
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 12, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice article on pineiro at fan graphs.
dave cameron proclaims joel pineiro is NOT tommy john. in case you were wondering.
in rather typical cameron style, he doesn’t address whether this is a strategy which, while not making pineiro a HOFer, might be the best strategy for a lot of otherwise marginal pitchers. which is really the much more interesting question.
the HR rate, which apparently is all the rage these days, is the key here. maybe the shuffling of the rotation should target keeping jo-el from pitching in bandboxes. if you could keep pineiro from making a couple of starts in the most hitter-friendly parks, you could maybe turn some awful showings into good ones.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly, Rob Neyer got in on El Pineiro, too.
Over at the ESPN Sweet Spot blog, entitled, “”http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-2-57/Pineiro-s-sinker-helping-Cards.html" >Pineiro’s sinker helping Cardinals." I realize this will never happen and it ignores the Colonel, but it’s a good companion post to the Cameron piece. Here’ s a quote after he compares Pineiro to Greg Hibbard:
Keep the ball down and limit the walks, and you can win.
I’m just not sure if Pineiro’s the guy to do it. His ground/fly ratio is certainly high; at 1.33, he’s tied for sixth in the National League. But to thrive while striking out three batters per nine innings, the G/F ratio probably has to be even higher. What’s more, Pineiro’s never been in this rarefied territory before. His career ratio is less than 1, and was right around 1 in each of the last two seasons.
I’m not saying he can’t do it. In addition to Pineiro’s grounders being up (so to speak), his walks are down. Maybe he has, at 30, become something of a different pitcher. But Chris Carpenter might be back soon, which means someone’s going to be forced from the rotation. The obvious candidate is rookie Mitchell Boggs. I would take a long look at Pineiro and all those non-strikeouts, though.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the counterpart to this is that pineiro had ridiculously high HR/FB in his old style of pitching.
to be effective, he really had to change something. i doubt anybody thinks throwing a lot of sinkers is going to lead to MORE HR. while his HR/FB ratio is not likely to stay so low, adding the sinker and becoming more of a pitch-to-contact guy is hopefully going to prevent him from regressing to a 15% hr/FB rate.
for your appreciation:
Pineiro WAR (2008): 0.9
Pineiro WAR (2009 so far): 0.8
that’s right, pineiro’s been almost as valuable pitching 39 innings over the last six weeks as he was over the whole 2008 season (admittedly, injury abbreviated) at 146 innings.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is WAR broken?
Because Pineiro feels MUCH more valuable this year (thus far).
by JWO on May 12, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's cumulative WAR, up to this point, not current-WAR-projected-over-a-full-season
it’s just like a counting stat, so if pineiro continues to pitch well, his WAR will increase (unless, of course, he starts to pitch badly, in which case his WAR could decrease). so, if he’s one-fourth the way through the season (projecting ~160 innings) and he continues to pitch at this level, he’ll end up with 4 × .08WAR, which would be 3.2 WAR. If he pitches 200 innings at this level, he’ll be a 4.0 WAR pitcher.
That’s a very, very big if, of course.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for that clarification
4.0 WAR from Pineiro would be… uhm… unexpected.
by JWO on May 12, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
When his HR/FB regresses to mean
he is basically a replacement level pitcher.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 12, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he is giving up fewer FB than his career avg though
so HR/FB at career rate (12%-ish) would still give him a lower HR/9.
ZiPS gives his revised season prediction to be a 4.35 FIP, which is somewhere around league average. of course, that means he’ll be below league average for the remainder of the year, but I’m broadly optimistic that he’ll be an OK fifth starter (perhaps even fourth starter) going forward.
As a group, we tend to have unreasonably high expectations for 5th starter performance (I realise pinata’s currently probably #4, but he’ll be bumped back to #5 when Carp returns) – as a group, they’re generally awful and somewhere in the replacement-level-ballpark, on average. If Pinata finishes 1-2 wins above replacement, that’s good production for a fifth starter. I reckon he’ll manage that this year. The problem, of course, is when we’re reliant on him to be MORE than a fifth starter, i.e. when Welly’s struggling, Wainwright is walking everyone, and Carpenter’s injured. He’s an overpriced, reasonable #5 in my view.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on May 13, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tonight's Lineup
2B Skip Schumaker
SS Khalil Greene
1B Albert Pujols
RF Ryan Ludwick
C Yadier Molina
LF Chris Duncan
3B Tyler Greene
SP Todd Wellemeyer
CF Shane Robinson
Tony must be hoping Khalil gets more strikes in front of Albert. He has hit a bit better since coming back from the forearm issue. Anyone know how T.Greene is at 3b? And nice to see Robinson get his first start tho is at the expense of Colby!
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 3:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it is not nice to see Robinson get his first start
not nice at all. He’s basically the bat of a poor utility IFer playing OF. I’m pretty sure Colby would do better against Dukes if TLR would ever bother to check out his splits.
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohh, Skip is leading off
Does Barden still exist?
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like T. Greene
but don’t get Barden getting another day off here.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Does Barden still exist?"
It feels like I ask myself that question every day. Isn’t he the only player on the roster right now, besides Pujols, who has actually played 3B more or less full-time before?
by mattybobo on May 12, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Robinson's a better hitter than that.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're selling Robinson short, much better hitter than a "poor utility IFer"
but i do wish Rasmus would get a chance vs LHP
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
at the big league level
I’m guessing that’s about how good he’ll be. I know he needed substantial help from the GOBs to even make it to this point.
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah got ya
i’m fully prepared to admit I don’t know that much about him beyond the numbers so I could be wrong. I thought he had more pop than a utility IF
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really, his best asset is speed. I'd have to go find it, but he doesn't hit a lot of XBHs
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's better than you think
The numbers are here. He’s reworked his swing in the past offseason, it looks good to me. His best asset, speed, is a very, very good tool for him. If he sticks, he’s the best basestealer we’ve had since Renteria, possibly Delino. His speed is also one of the reasons that he’s had a higher than average BABIP, since he’s a hell-of-a-lot faster than average.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hits a lot of doubles, almost no homers.
he had a slugging % around .500 in AA last year. i imagine a lot of the doubles are outfield liners that he’s able to stretch out for extra bases.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't walk a lot either
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on May 12, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How did I scroll past this?
I blame my computer. Everyone disregard my post except for my comment that “the left side of the infield is looking green(e) tonight.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pirates lineup as well...
Pittsburgh Pirates
Player AVG HR RBI
N MORGAN LF .301 0 13
F SANCHEZ 2B .317 3 11
N MCLOUTH CF .292 5 22
AD LAROCHE 1B .223 5 14
R DIAZ C .381 1 4
AN LAROCHE 3B .253 1 11
B MOSS RF .174 0 3
J WILSON SS .255 0 7
Z DUKE -L P .154 0 1
by Xeifrank on May 12, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did they bring Lloyd McClendon back?
I imagine he fills out a lineup card like he’s screaming it.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
by liam on May 12, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
everyone knows
that Lloyd filled out his lineup on the back of bases stolen from the field during arguments with umpires. It’s easier to throw a base out there in disgust than a wimpy little lineup card….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
blech.
no interest in seeing shane start in CF, unless colby really needs the rest. nor in seeing khalil hitting second.
- of cardinals position players with better OBP this season than Khalil: 10
hall of the worse-at-getting-on-base-than-khalil: tyler greene, shane robinson, brendan ryan, and david freese).
tyler greene has one full inning at third in the minors according to minor league splits. is he getting an audition to see if he can stick as a utility guy? should barden, thurston, ryan, etc. be worried?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i wondered what T.Greene's background at 3b was
that’s not impressive.
Tony has to think Khalil will get pitches but it’s very dumb having the worst OBP on the team in front of albert. Add skip vs LHP to that and Albert’s prob gonna bat w/ the bases empty a few times
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've liked hot Khalil has been hitting lately
but he is not a #2 hitter.
I don’t understand why Colby is always the odd man out for a lefty starter, he’s got the best splits. It seems like a pretty terrible way to start off a his Career by rarely exposing him to LHP. Some day if he ever plays every day, he will still have adjusting to do.
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tyler Greene
played some 3b in the Arizona Fall League and some in spring training.
by Toddius on May 12, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah i totally agree on both accounts
w/ Greene swinging better of late, I’m trying to find a silver lining w/ him 2nd. OBP issues trump all tho, so it’s silly place to bat him.
I think Colby’s gotta be getting tired of it,especially after the GW RBI sundayDoesn’t Duncan every need a day off? I know we need his power but still, has he sat since Ankiel got hurt?
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of these starts are encouraged to get people going, not just focusing on winning 1 game
Tony is trying (hopefully) to manage for the season, not every individual game indepdently. For example, Khalil is starting to get hot, so put him in front of Pujols where he’ll get some serious strikes and see if he can capitalize on them and get it going for a couple of weeks.
by birdo rojo on May 12, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posted below before I scrolled upward to find this thread
Silly me, but I digress. K-Greene’s OBP in the number two slot this young season is .398 in 18 PAs. He is slugging .267 in those 18 PAs, too, but who is counting?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But now
we have a all-Greene side of the infield.
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 12, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i anxiously await the first 6-5-3 double play.
i predict mike shannon will make a brave attempt to narrate it, then give up midway through, and murmur a semi-audible expletive.
and then the sound of a slurped beverage will be heard.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
shit a 6-5-6 or 5-6-5 would kill him
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can just stick with first names and keep pronouncing Khalil's name "Ka-Heel."
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He honestly called Colby "Rasmusen" the other day.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on May 12, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not a Robinson fan at all
but Skip against lefty starter is my least favorite part of this. It’s like having two lead-off men pitchers in the lineup.
by DanUpBaby on May 12, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, skip is beyond brutal vs lefties.
I must confess I don’t know that much about Robinson. Is it a lack of power, OBP skills or something in particular?
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basically,
he can’t ride most roller coasters at Six Flags.
Does that answer your question?
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on May 12, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's a combination, for me,
of the size, the lack of power, and the mostly empty average that he didn’t maintain in his 42 game stint at AAA last year. He could be a solid fourth or fifth outfielder, but I don’t think we know enough to think that yet.
by DanUpBaby on May 12, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a question
His ceiling is a fourth or fifth OFer, correct?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the scouting reports I've seen on him
and his MLE equivalent stats derived from his minor league performance seem to indicate that he’s probably going to be no better than a fourth or fifth outfielder.
It would be nice if he went on a tear while getting this cup of coffee, so that his trade value would inflate a little bit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Erik had a subering assessment of Robinson's hot start,
that negates any benefits of his grittiness. A sampling of the piece of analytical analysis from Future Redbirds:
While Robinson’s LD rate in 2008 supports the impressive .352 batting average, that’s not the case this year. He’s hitting more groundballs than ever and only 10% line drives. The two stops where Robinson has posted an OPS over .700 he’s had BABIPs of .398 and .388 — that’s not going to continue. A player with little power is going to struggle to not have balls blown past him in the majors. Robinson is a contact hitter with little power and very low walk rates. If he stops making contact or can’t get the ball out of the infield, he’s screwed offensively.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I just found that article right after I posted. Sickels had very similar comments in his scouting book this year as well, although he didn’t reference the statistics that Erik used to back up his point.
I’ve seen people compare him to Skip, but Skip has a lot more pop and has gap power that Robinson simply doesn’t have.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comparing the Skip of today to the Robinson of today
I don’t know that we can. Skip may be a very good comparison for Robinson. In 2006, Skip only managed to slug .387 for Memphis with 13 doubles and 3 HR in 403 PAs. That was in Skip’s Age 26 season. In 2007, his Age 27 season, Skip slugged .467 with Memphis over 259 PAs (with 16 doubles) and .458 with St. Louis over 188 PAs.
Robinson, in his Age 25 season this year, slugged .473 in a mere 64 PAs (with 5 doubles) after only managing to slug .284 last season over 152 PAs (with only 3 doubles).
Skip’s BA in Memphis was a more grounded .304 when he was called up. Robinson, on the other hand, is hitting an unsustainable .345 over 1/5 of a season. Both are short, tough, and gritty. Maybe they could platoon at second?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
convert him to 2B
and that would be the most awesome-est platoon ever. Pure short-man grit at the cornerstone
by STLRegalia on May 12, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip is 5-10, 195 lbs
Which isn’t big but a heck of a lot more impressive than 5-9, 160. 35 pounds goes a long way.
by TheBirds on May 12, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the answer
i was just curious cause even though I’m memphis i didn’t catch any of the games after he was called up and I knew you were one of the main guys for prospect info. i think 4th-5th OF is all most ppl expect of him and a 4th-5th OF on a Tony LaRussa team will get plenty of starts. I’m curious to see how much they’ll use his speed
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty soon
we will need to start a tally for number of different TLR lineups, maybe he’ll break his record
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many did he use last year?
150ish?
I thought going into the season he couldn’t top last year but so far, 160 lineups wouldn’t surprise me haha
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I think he might even break last year’s… if for no other reason, there’s more rookies
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sports Illustrated thinks DeWitt is the 3rd best owner in baseball,
after the Red Sox and Angels owners. And they didn’t even call him DeWallet.
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
CBS Sports takes a Jab at Carp
In their latest power rankings CBS takes on Carp’s injured past:
Speaking of woebegone Cards pitchers, operating-room mainstay Chris Carpenter reportedly “threw aggressively” in the outfield on Sunday. Next up, in approximate order: a mound session, another mound session, two carefully monitored appearances in minor-league games, then a return to the DL after he lacerates the webbing between his ring finger and pinky while signing an autograph.
I would read the rest of what they say about the Cards too, it isn’t as bad.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 12, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting that he has 3 of the top 8 and 4 of the top 11 coming out the the NL Central.
Then again, he also has the Yankees at #17. I know that’s about where their record has them, but I can’t believe they really deserve to be that low (although I guess it depends on how exactly he’s defining “power” in “power rankings”).
by BTown Birds fan on May 12, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too many questions about injuries
coupled with their AWFUL pitching so far, and then multiply that by playing in the toughest division in baseball, and I think they’re ranked about where they should be right now.
Did anyone realize that Cano is having a fantastic year for them though?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on May 12, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is this sarcastic?
maybe there’s some narrative I’m missing, but . . .
hateful miscreant David Eckstein.
what?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds like sarcasm to me
if not, somebody needs to put the pipe down
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LINEUP
Tonight, the left side of the infield is looking green(e)…
1. Schumaker, 2B
2. K. Greene, SS
3. Pujols, 1B
4. Ludwick, RF
5. Molina, C
6. Duncan, LF
7. T. Greene, 3B
8. Wellemeyer, P
9. Robinson, CF
Why in the name of creation would K-Greene ever bat in the #2 slot? Isn’t the point to have a runner on in front of The Great Pujols? I mean, really, K-Greene’s OBP is .323 overall this season, .304 for his career, and .398 this year when appearing in front of Pujols in 18 PAs. Okay, so, cheers to .398!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How I missed the lineup posted above is beyond me.
I apologize for the above waste of (cyber)space.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we'll never get those electrons back, bgh.
don’t worry. no doubt this pales in relation to the amount wasted on hannah montana fan sites.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on May 12, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
matter
can not be created or destroyed so, the electrons are still around, somewhere…
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
by albrtfn on May 12, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yours has more pink rectangle though
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
THis post definitely needs more cowbell!
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 12, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it really does
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the rectangle is pink?
did not know that
by BirdsonFire on May 12, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looks pink to me
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The double-spacing from the P-D's blog really brings out the pink in the quote box, doesn't it?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carp's Bullpen Session Went Well
According to the P-D, the session went well, Carp will throw another on Friday, and then possibly start next week.
"I didn’t have any (bad) feelings or anything like that. I let the ball go pretty good."
Carpenter said he was most interested to find if his torn left oblique muscle felt good. "It felt normal," he said. "My arm felt strong. That’s good."
Does anyone else feel like they should be, oh, I don’t know, more careful with Carp? Shouldn’t he do a gradual strengthening program with a few bullpen sessions and then a minor league rehab? I mean, we do owe him about $45MM for 2009, 2010, and 2011. Plus, the organization’s history with brittle players isn’t exactly sterling…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 12, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish I could take comfort from this
but i can’t. I mean thanks for the news, but they’re going to rush him back in worst way :( Isn’t Carp the epitome of a guy you don’t rush? I know we need him, but we need at 100%, full arm strength, etc. So yeah I agree w/ ya bgh, it’s disconcerting if they do rush him. Starting next weeks seems rushed to me.
and has a bullpen session ever gone badly? I can’t remember any player saying, “well the session sucked. my stuff was off and now I feel like shit. the pain in my side was a real bitch too. this was a major setback for me”
by kalmavet on May 12, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds good for him to be back soon
but yeah, they should put the kid gloves on (I think I saw a Rush reference in Dan’s post today)
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm going to guess the band
having not read it
by BirdsonFire on May 12, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
band
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 12, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sawasdee krob . . . Is Shane Robinson for real or the latest in a long line of Bo Heart clones?
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on May 12, 2009 7:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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