McClellan, and Reyes, and Motte, and Miller, and Franklin, and Boyer, and Perez, oh my
by DanUpBaby on May 11, 2009 6:16 AM EDT
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PrintToday is one of those off-days that seems to have been built in with advance knowledge of the season's outcome. That wasn't a great win—the blown save, the weird bullpen histrionics, another ambiguous Wainwright performance—but it was an eventful one, one that demands a day off before the Cardinals get back to the business of winning brisk, efficient ballgames.
And if they'd lost—well, perish the thought.
Franklin didn't look like he was about to allow home runs to the wrong Hairston and a pitch-hitter, of course, but he didn't look like the unhittable guy who'd won over even the most hardened sections of the young pitchers contingent in April, either. In the course of fulfilling his prime directive—hit the corner, hit the corner, hit the corner—he began missing significantly off the plate, which ran the count full and forced him toward the center of the strike zone, where he turns back into Ryan Franklin. A game plan built upon filling the strike zone with borderline pitches falls apart when the command and the umpiring aren't perfectly sharp, and they weren't.
Pulling the camera back a little, Franklin was indeed the only reliever—of seven, the full complement in an average pen—to retire three batters yesterday. Like most La Russa over-managing, it fell just this side of plausibility, helped along by a series of circumstances that were especially conducive to it, particularly the especially shaky performance by McClellan and the Thurston error that turned Motte's relatively sharp turn into a one-out cameo. But in the end I have no way of justifying sending Franklin up to face—or even not face, if that walk was truly de facto intentional—Joey Votto.
I'm not of the opinion that a pitcher is thrown off by coming in with two outs in the eighth instead of the ninth, especially one who has shuffled through as many roles as Ryan Franklin has, but the very reason that the bullpen currently has eight pitchers in it is to allow for the continued employment of two whose only skill is retiring left-handed batters. If Trever Miller can't face Joey Votto when lefties stand, season to date, 2-20 against him, what's he doing on the roster? It's not just the move that doesn't make sense—it's the existence of this enormous bullpen in the face of it.
#
You might not have noticed it, because I think we're all inured by now to the fact that a fourth outfielder is playing second base, but Skip Schumaker's two doubles yesterday pushed his slugging percentage over .400 and his OPS comfortably above the league average. That's right—for the moment he has fulfilled the prophecy and become that offense-first second baseman you've always wanted.
Punching the latest figures into Fangraphs, that means he's now worth all of negative two million dollars.
Now, I'm not an unshakeable defender of the Schumaker experiment; in spring training I said I was glad La Russa took the experiment seriously, and would trust him to know when to pull the plug, and I've not seen enough either way to move me from that position. But while his terrible UZR numbers are bad news, they aren't conclusive—right now among the few fielders who project to be worse than Skip is Khalil Greene, and while I did not see a lot of West Coast games last season I'm relatively sure he was not a center fielder in 2008.
Right now even Schumaker's extraordinarily low numbers as an outfielder are weighting him down, but I'm not sure anybody who's not throwing the baseball from the pitcher's mound can rightfully be charged with three runs in 33 innings of play. All this is just to say that no matter how he looks, it's not yet time to stop trusting your eyes.
Play-by-play defensive statistics are without a doubt the closest we've come to quantifying defense, but they're not a game-by-game tool; you can't total up a player's bases allowed and match them to real game moments.
If Skip's still on pace to cough up three wins on defense in July—well shorter than the inventor of UZR suggested to measure true talent, but presumably enough to get an accurate account of the value he's provided this year—I'll stop waving the bloody sample size shirt. But until then I'm going to look at that gaudy left field number and wait for more data.
#
DAN: It's like getting an ace back just as you're about to get another ace back, all thanks to the second ace, without having to trade anybody!
AL: You know, Dan, it really is.
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1) Eight man bullpen = angry robot
2) I had no idea that Skip was already -8.8 runs according to UZR. It will be interesting to see what more data does to this metric but I’m not particularly optimistic.
3) Can we get a pitchf/x-er to verify the change in release point for Wainwright from 2008 to 2009?
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Skip's UZR
I don’t pay too much attention to fielding metrics so I ask, can you explain why UZR ranks him so poorly? Watching on mlb.tv he seems to be making plays. Is it based on balls that go for hits that they think he should be getting to? Has there been a marked improvement in UZR from week to week?
UZR takes a look at a couple things
the balls that pass through the 2B “zone”. it computes as baseline for % of those plays that a 2B should make (with corrections for parks, batter handedness, pitcher handedness, type of batted ball, etc.) and assigns a fractional run value to plays made above or below the average. So far, Skip has made fewer plays on balls in zone than we’d expect a 2B too, which totals to 5 runs. There’s also considerations for arm and double plays for infielders I believe.
It’s too early to read definitely into the UZR/150 (what he’d allegedly do over an entire year) but it is noteworthy (imo) at how bad he’s been thus far. So even though we may not see him bumbling obvious plays or making gratuitous mistakes, he’s not converting enough balls in his zone into outs.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I'm optimistic
this stat is going to be distorted this early in Skip’s 2B career, and he will improve his defense there with more playing time. I’d like to see a breakdown of all defensive metrics relating to skip
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
watching skip
play in person this spring, i mentioned early on that a lot of balls get by him because he reads the ball off the bat poorly. hopefully he’ll adjust to get a better jump, but his current situation was quite predictable. intereseting to see how tlr and skip evolve
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I second #3
Would be interesting to look at. Also, where is the Pain Guy when you need him? How will this affect his health if it is true that his release point changed?
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
He has no background in exercise science and has done zero research on his own beyond reading stuff and looking at still photographs and grainy slow-mo video. He does not use anything resembling scientific methodology, and as of late has “heard” things about various players, looked at a picture, and says “A-ha!” I honestly don’t know if he’s right or not, but his methodology sucks and because of that I’d take whatever he has to say with an enormous grain of salt.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
While I do take his comments with a grain of salt
it’s mainly because nobody’s really figured out if there’s a mechanical reason that pitchers get hurt. I really don’t care if he’s got a background in exercise science or not, Mike Marshall has a doctorate in exercise science and I don’t think he’s any more professional than O’Leary is, but at least O’Leary doesn’t preach from a pulpit about these things. I think he’s just got a real interest in this stuff and puts a lot of time in trying to figure these things out.
has done zero research on his own beyond reading stuff and looking at still photographs and grainy slow-mo video.
I find this statement to be a bit paradoxical. How can he have done “zero research on his own” when “reading stuff and looking at still photographs and grainy slo-mo video” is the essence of doing research on his own? He could just come to conclusions based on what he’s seen or what pitchers get hurt, but he does have an interest in showing us why he thinks the way that he does and explaining his theses with video and photo graphical evidence.
You could make this exact same argument about guys like Sky Kalkman, Harry Pavlidis, and Tom Tango, but you don’t, and you shouldn’t, because it’s unfair to classify someone by their “background” or “methodology” when they show a great interest in a subject. I find a lot of the backlash against O’Leary being of a personal nature when he’s just showing an interest in a subject and trying to find out an answer. He’s changed his stance occasionally because that’s what you do when you find evidence that doesn’t support your opinion. That’s an scientific way of approaching things. He doesn’t have giant sums of money to bring in pitchers for a motion capture study, so he has to use video and photographs to conceptualize what he’s talking about. Bottom line, he’s doing the best he can with the information that he has available, and I applaud the effort on his part which really shows little personal gain for him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Skip's LF numbers
Don’t even compute…-104 runs for a season of fielding. That is over 10 loses. Revert to the mean now dammit.
The problem there is that he has played 34 innings in LF
I was there for his dropped flyball vs. Chicago. I bet that has a severe negative effect on his LF numbers. I mean, that’s not even a week’s worth of games.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Dropped fly vs. tiny bears
I don’t recall many discussing the fact that when he dropped, the bases were loaded with a possibility of the runner tagging to score. Of course the ball was shallow, but I recall seeing Skip not looking the ball into the glove and instead anticipating a quick throw to home. So that particular play, IMHO, doesn’t qualify as a unforced error in tennis speak.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
That's gonna happen from time to time when you play a second baseman in the OF.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
seeing the dropped ball
made me think this rotating him to outfield is a bad idea. if he is going to be a second basemen, then he should play second base, rather than stand at second until the situation allows him to move back to the of.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I'll give #3 pitch f/x a shot
So, these are Adam Wainwright’s release points from his last start in 2008 (Sept. 28) and his most recent start on May 10, 2009:
Okay, so apologies in advance for bad screen grabbing, but in general it looks like his release point is a little higher in 2009 than his last start in 2008. At the very least, he was more consistent in his release point in 2008.
Now, here’s what looks like the more-telling chart. He’s got way less horizontal movement in his fastball (classified as fastball in 2008 and a cutter in 2009):
Goes without saying that these are just single starts by Waino, but it does look like a small change in release point can have deleterious effects on movement. Maybe someone from Driveline Mechanics can take on the case.
Still not sold on
Schumaker, Duncan, or Thurston. Duncan has been good on offense and OK on defense but it is still early – he has got to continue to provide a lot of offense to make up for the defense. Schumaker is a gutsy guy who deserves a lot of credit but he lacks range and he likewise has to provide the offense to merit playing at 2B. Thurston has over his hot start and it will be interesting to see if he can adjust or is he going to be a flash in the pan.
Did not get to see the game yesterday but the highlight replay of Rasmus’ double was sweet. He may or may not be on his way to greatness but he has one of the best looking swings on the team.
Nice to see Perez come in and nail it down as well. Franklin has been great but Perez has the potential to be the guy of the future.
Starting pitching has got to get better or everything else won’t matter. I think the success of this year is going to rest on the shoulders of Carpenter.
Carpenter
May well provide the key. It seems that we have just gone through one lousy rotation. This happens and the reason you have an ace is to stop a slide. It helps the bullpen (by giving them rest) and it helps the other starters by setting the standard. I, for one, am sincerely hoping to see Carpenter early next week. I think Wainwright is better as a number 2 because he doesn’t put the pressure on himself. My concern with Carp is whether he can really swing a bat. I suppose if all he does is bunt, its not the end of the world, but I will be holding my breath every time he takes a swing.
No rehab?
I may be out of the loop a bit on Carp’s rehab but I was expecting him to start at least a game in AAA or below (maybe one that uses a DH) before starting for the Cards. But if he does start in the next week or so I would rather it be against KC on like the 24th so we can use the DH for him at least for a bit.
Lastly, who in their right mind put us at home for Milx3, off day, Cubsx3, KCx3 and then away to Milx3, talk about “fun” games all back to back.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I like the idea
of Carpenter starting against KC where we can use the DH. Except we face KC at home, so no DH. I think whether he gets a rehab start will depend on his bullpen session on Tuesday. If he is ready to go, I think they roll him out. He is a pro and the problem wasn’t with his arm, so I think it is at least possible that he doesn’t have a rehab start.
The article
DanUp linked to said that Duncan wasn’t concerned – at this point – that Carp would need a rehab start because he’s been able to stay active and maintain his strength.
Classic underachiever.
The doubel by Rasmus
was fun to watch, but I hate that he ran into an out. I didn’t catch it but was Oquendo waving him to third or was that all Colby? I only ask because I didn’t think he had a chance to get a triple and it wasn’t even a hard throw to get him either. I would have liked for him to be on second with Albert up to see if they would walk him or give him a chance to drive in another run.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
They made it sound (on air) like Colby didn't pick up Oquendo or there
was some confusion on who Oquendo was signaling (Thurston was being waved in from first).
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Maybe that was it
I was able to watch but I couldn’t hear the game so I didn’t hear the talking heads. When I was able to listen I really enjoyed the Randolph+Shannon moments. They may not comment on the game very well but just listening to them talk is great. It would make a great tv show to just have them talking and play the highlights they are talking about on screen.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Young guys make mistakes
He got the big hit, and drove in the run. Smarter baserunning will come with time. Colby has above average speed too, so I’m not that worried.
Never said I was worried
I was just wondering if it was a “young guy mistake” or a coaching mistake. Colby is already a smarter baseball guy than most his age or experience level are but that doesn’t make him immune to mistakes. I was just trying to quantify which it was.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Colby's
pretty polished. I’m thinking their signals got crossed. I just don’t see him running on his own there.
Classic underachiever.
Jose
was still windmilling Thurston in as Rasmus was approaching and passing second. If Rasmus wasn’t so damn fast, it wouldn’t have happened.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I was surprised
he was thrown out. When someone above mentioned that he slowed a bit after rounding 2nd, it made sense to me what happened: Oquendo couldn’t keep up.
Classic underachiever.
On TV,
they said that he’d stopped at 2nd before taking off for third.
I guessed that he thought the throw might beat Thirsty to the plate, so took off for third to draw the throw and guarantee the go-ahead run scores. Either that or he made a mistake. It was a fairly close play, though, so if he hadn’t hesitated, he might’ve made it safely.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
if thats the case and he sacrificed himself to ensure the run scoring
then he is a super heady player
He must've had an order ready at the pick-up window
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on May 11, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just watched also
Oquendo was DEFINITELY waving in Rasmus. He looked like a mini golf obstacle even after Thursty crossed the plate.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on May 11, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't see Rasmus just ignoring him
I could be wrong but I saw Oquendo’s arms still flailing around as Colby approached him so I was assuming he was following the call. (Which would be weird.)
Don't hurt me, I'm just a rookie fan!
Rookie Mistate
I am always amused by base running errors being referred to as rookie mistakes. Base running is fairly simple, and learned very early in baseball. After watching a considerable number of AAA games in the last year, I do not see a difference in base running between AAA and the majors.
by Remember Kenny B on May 11, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Arm strength, defensive ability, etc. are all different
I could imagine a rookie thinking he could have made a triple out of a double and getting thrown out where he might not have been thrown out in AAA. Baserunning itself is fundamentally the same but the abilities of the opposition is not.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
dan and al...
seem to never want to place any blame on TLR or Oquendo. Dan on air the day after the Thurston 9th inning debacle wondered aloud if TLR had taken the media fall to protect Thurston after his rookie mistake….
by duncans_army on May 11, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
that might be what annoys me most about the FSM broadcasts
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I didn't see it, but I think the TV announcer said something about Colby starting to pull up
after rounding second then taking off again. Maybe after seeing the signal from Oquendo that wasn’t meant for him…?
by BTown Birds fan on May 11, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
A personal victory today—the first semi-analytical baseball blog post I could follow all the way through~
Don't hurt me, I'm just a rookie fan!
congrats!
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Since we are congratulating.
Danup is an uncle again today. A new Cardinal fan was born this morning. My son Andy and his wife had a baby girl. Ella will be in Cardinal red by the end of the week. Grandma-up will make sure of it.
Congrats AndyUp, his wifeup, EllaUp, Uncle DanUp, momup, and the whole Up clan!
by BTown Birds fan on May 11, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
The Up clan keeps expanding
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
congratulations, momup! happy belated mother's day!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Mmmm, Kevinup!
Is that a new lemon-lime beverage?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on May 11, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Does that also make you GrandmaUp?
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't she say that in her comment ;)
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Yes...
…she did…
READ, ME!!!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Ace Acquisition
I was worried when I read this about Carpenter’s analysis
The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner stood in the batter’s box as Wainwright threw a session Thursday
I was looking for additional information that Carp is out another two weeks because he swung at some of the pitches…
So, um, what is Dave Duncan doing?
The Carp/Wainwright junior mechanics detectives figured this all out on their own? A 3-to-5-inch difference in release point? What? That is dramatic. I would think that the greatest pitching coach living or dead would easily have diagnosed this after an inning or two, let alone a half-dozen starts…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I have to be honest...
I don’t think Duncan’s strongest skills are in mechanical adjustments. I get the feeling that is more Marty Mason’s job. Duncan seems to be the “game-plan” guy, which makes sense because he was a catcher, so he probably still sees the game from behind the plate and not from the mound.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
But he fixed Jo-El Pineiro by identifying how he was tipping pitches...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
So they say!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Duncan's Platoon Split
Has anyone looked at our platoon splits for lefties yet this year?
I was curious about how good Duncan has been and look what I found:
vs RHP as LH: .282/.391/.507/.898
vs LHP as LH: .303/.324/.515/.839
So far so good.
Now his Home and Away splits are horrid, .616 OPS at home vs 1.127 on the road in about equal PAs.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I wonder how many LHPs he has faced at home versus on the road?
I wonder why that split is so dramatic. Is it that bad in 2006, 2007, and 2008?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
the home/road split isn't just lefties
it is his complete home road split
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
he's asking
if it might be possible that he has faced considerably more lefties on the road than righties. This would provide some reason for the difference in Home-Road split, granted not the whole reason.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
the mlb site lets you do double splits.
he has twice as many AB’s against lefties at home v. away, but he’s dramatically better against lefties away.
v. lhp, at home: 22 ABs (.273/.304/.455)
v. lhp, away: 11 ABs (.364/.364/.636)
it’s really just a sample size issue. he has one HR away and none at home. that is the primary factor driving the slugging numbers here.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I know what he was asking
but if his Lefty-Righty splits were even and his Home/Road splits that I quoted were for both lefty and righty I have no idea how you would even come to that conclusion. Oh well.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
My conclusion is fed by Duncan being on my Fantasy Team
I had the impression that he hit lefties more poorly at home than on the road, however small the sample size, and wondered if that were maybe bringing down his home OPS.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Have you noticed his bat speed versus lefites?
He seems to have abandoned a bit of the pull-happy power stroke versus lefties. My buddy and I were commenting about that early on, and it seems to be a conscious effort on Lil’ Dunc’s part. He seems to be focusing on hitting the ball back through the box versus lefties, instead of trying to hit it out of the park.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
He does seem to be trying to stay on the ball longer
However, it hasn’t hurt his power. He is slugging higher vs. lefties than righties, which is amazing to me.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
ISO is actually lower
The batting average is why the slugging is higher for lefties. The difference is very small though. He’s been batting well vs lefties thus far
Well
Busch Stadium is near Petco level in Home-run rate and is rated as the third best Pitchers park in the league. It also seems to have even more effect on Left Handed power hitters. (without the numbers on hand right now…..)
by Hambone Willis on May 11, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Man, that is really positive
He’s learning and adjusting. Awesome.
I'll be damned if Carp isn't right via PITCHf/x
There's more variance, too,
in yesterday’s release point. Especially significant seem all the balls that came from pushing his arm out wide . . . but it is higher, if only, on average, about an inch or so.
the y axis is measured in ft, not inches
so the difference in most of those release points is between 1/3 and 1/2 a foot. or 4-6 inches. So carp was right.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
Not sure but
since those are from different stadiums, the difference may be due to differences in the mounds and the pitchf/x system at each stadium. I think I’ve read somewhere (possibly from Harry at BtB) that each system isn’t identical and these differences can occur.
5/5/2009 then
Here is Wainwright from his last start at home
There is still a general 1-2 inch shift upward along with a much larger variation compared to the tightly coupled one from last year.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Infer what you will
It’s two starts from ’08 and his most recent at Busch.
He seems to have a pretty large scatter anyway. Carp may have found something (and I certainly hope so) but it doesn’t look like that much IMO.
strange bullpen usage
some guys were only in for like one out or so, breakfast was in for 3 outs and had probably the best performance yesterday out of the bullpen. A lot of people decried this, but it worked out. this is more superstition than anything else, but I don’t want franklin pitching outside of the 9th inning, he seems like he likes his defined role as 9th inning closer. this is very encouraging from the link you posted (well, the wainwright detecting his bad arm slot is encouraging too)
“Barring a setback, Carpenter is likely to be activated during the next home stand.”
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by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
huh
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Juan = Breakfast
Encarnacion => Carnation => Instant Breakfast => Brekky (my personal nickname for Encarnacion)
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
when I think of Dennys
I think of breakfast…
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I've never had "breakfast" there
but lots of drunken meals which resemble breakfast. Which Denny’s (not the pitcher) now encourages!
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Never been to Denny's, period
Now WaHo, on the other hand…
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
yep...
Juan was Instant Breakfast for too long. I don’t think we can call Reyes breakfast…at least it doesn’t work for me. How ’bout grand slam or something?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
by cardzfanbub on May 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't
call a pitcher ‘grand slam.’
Classic underachiever.
by spants on May 11, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Some you can...
but probably not a good idea for Reyes…don’t want to tempt the baseball gods.
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
I don't like that one
I don’t think of Dennys as a diner…
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rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
fine
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I call him slightly above average
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
just talking about his pitching ability
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
"The Big Sweat"
…=my favorite nickname of all time.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
that's another alternative
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I enjoy
Moons Over My LOOGY but realize that it’s too complicated (and stupid) to ever catch on.
See, first you have to explain what a…
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Somehow,
I ended up explaining LOOGy to my mom yesterday. She thought it was funny.
Classic underachiever.
you and danup
consider yourselves blessed that they were able to follow your description
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
I wouldn't be surprised
if momup is the one that explained LOOGY to DanUp
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on May 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
again
…my mom thinks LOOGY is something you hack up. And it would probably take me the better part of an hour explaining it to her before I gave up.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
ah geez
is this grade school?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Shut up, nerd
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
Shut up, nerd!
I’m one of the cool kids, now! Oh god, I’m so happy! No more getting stuffed into lockers for THIS guy!
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 11, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah?
/stuffs red baron into locker
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude.
Not cool.
And it’s dark in here.
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 12, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
*twists propeller on beanie*
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
you tell 'em, matty!
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Strauss
In the past I never really paid attention to what reporter was writing STLDispatch articles, but lately I’m pretty amazed that without looking at the by-line I can pick out exactly who wrote what article with incredible consistency. That was such a typical Strauss article. “Here’s an old timey baseballey sounding story full of reassuring quotes with no independent fact checking/confirmation.” That’s just poor reporting from a journalistic perspective. Use pitchFX or watch the video yourself to see “oh hey, he is indeed throwing from a different slot” or “oh no, despite his claims, it appears as though it’s the exact same spot.”
You must live in your mom's basement
Kidding…
This presupposes that Strauss knows what pitchF/X is and how to read it, which I highly doubt. What’s more, Strauss can just rely on the VEB community to do this research for him. Nice job, joker24.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What this book presupposes is,
maybe he didn’t?
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 11, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
“The crickets and the rust-beetles scuttled among the nettles of the sage thicket. ‘Vámonos, amigos,’ he whispered, and threw the busted leather flintcraw over the loose weave of the saddlecock. And they rode on in the friscalating dusklight.”
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Your night is free.
After all, today is an off-day.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Are you also 40?
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: skip's numbers
All I can say is, there is a 37 year old, switch-hitting 2bman still available. His range may not be what it once was, but he’s a nice guy, and I think a team like the Cardinals could use him
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on May 11, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
yes cause what this team needs is more middle infielders
do it! i would like to see a all MIF team at some point this season. make it happen tlr and moz!
Hey, at least he's a legitimate ML second baseman,
as opposed to a converted outfielder (skip) or a utility infielder (joe, brian b.).
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on May 11, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
does that mean we fire skip?
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rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And do what with Skippy?
Or for that matter, our other infielders?
Frankly, I’m glad we’re getting a chance to see what some younger guys can do.
this article incorrectly states that pineiro started with the cardinals in '08
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
pretty good article though
"Could just be one of those years, good or bad," Wellemeyer said. "I can’t say for sure, though. As pitchers, we complicate the [expletive] out of everything anyway, so who knows?"
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
well he joined in very late 2007
and didn’t do too much starting before joining us, so maybe he missed those 11 games?
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I like Piniero's quote.
“…when we came here, we didn’t really throw sinkers. You become a completely different pitcher. I guess I was ignorant. I thought I could strike out everybody, and I had a different mindset."
Classic underachiever.
He's not good enough to adopt the royal we yet
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I liked that quote too
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
a post I didn't make back in October
The patriarch of the Molina family passed away, days after the birth of Yadi’s child. I read the translated Spanish articles, but felt it wasn’t appropriate to bring it up. The six month vigil’s passed, now, and Bengie has blogged about it in detail. It’s pretty heart-rending. Yadier was the one right there on the scene. Benjamin Molina didn’t just mentor his own sons, he helped along a lot of other young men in their community.
It’s a grim thing to apply to baseball, but I expect all the Molinas to step it up this year.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Hmmm.
You know, “life happens to everyone” is pretty effing brilliant. However, I’ll thank you to keep the bittersweet philosophical musings to yourself. This blog ain’t big enough for the two of us.
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 11, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
I have been in one of these moods lately… I’ll try to keep it under wraps.
Classic underachiever.
I liked it
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
RB is just jealous that he isn't alone anymore
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Not true.
Even in cyberspace, where we think we’re having all these great relationships with people who understand, maybe even care about us, in the end, each of us is still sitting by ourselves, staring intently at this flickering display. No matter how comforting the illusion may be, it doesn’t change the fact that we are, in fact, alone.
Point: Aaron.
Beat that, Spants!
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 11, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
like the special olympics, except everybody loses in the end.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
LOL
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rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Victory is mine!
So, do I get like a prize or something? Maybe a gift certificate for a dinner for one, or a Kasey Chambers record? Anything?
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 12, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
you stole that from The X-Files
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Did I really?
Well, crap. I don’t recall ever seeing it anywhere, but maybe I did. If so, I’m all kinds of disappointed in myself.
If you've got a blacklist, I want to be on it.
by the red baron on May 12, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
it's like,,,,your reading my mind
get outta my head!
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
I wouldn't bet against Ludwick and Duncan
If their bats heat up, Rasmus could just as easily be 5th in a hearbeat.
But I’ll grant (happily) the kid is playing at or near expecations at the moment.
They don't have a T-Shirt jersey availble for Rasmus yet
I got a dirty look when I asked about it at the ballpark. Vendor tried to hawk me an Ankiel one. Ankiel ate the wall two innings later.
Also, totally OT, but I’m pissed about the smaller beers that cost more money. Bring back the 23oz for 8.25. None of this 16oz for 8.50 bullshit.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I'm not drinking at Busch the rest of they year
(except for what I bring in myself) unless I’m in an all-inclusive section. It’s total bullshit.
You can get a t-jersey for Rasmus online. He probably wont have an official one until next year at the earliest. Those are reserved for seasoned vets.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I thought I just wasn't looking in the right places.
Did they do away with the 24oz cans entirely, because I had nothing but wee drafts last Thursday there?
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
Thats the rumor
glad to see the Schlafly empire expand, sad to see the $/oz.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I was also upset at that thursday
I just thought I was having a bad day because I couldn’t track down a big boy beer. I was also quite disappointed that I couldn’t find Schlafly but in one place in the who damn ballpark.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I have a red schlafly Tee shirt from about 7 years ago.
It says schlafly on the front and on the back is a picture of the old busch stadium with an arrow pointing to where you could get schlaflys.
I’m very fond of that shirt as much as someone can be about a shirt.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
Hmm, a t shirt jersey.
Hadn’t thought of that. those are affordable.
Colby T-Shirt
I got the same dirty look. They had a Cesar Izturis jersey t-shirt last year yet, this year, no Rasmus. It’s absurd. Positively absurd.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I made my own
with glitter and puffy paint.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
That must be one flamboyant shirt....
I guess you could just tell everyone that your daughter or niece made it for you.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
Although not too fashionable in St. Louis
It would probably go over great in San Fransisco, where the fashion is much more daring.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
You can order a personalized one from the website, no?
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
But I don’t know that it has the blue outline around the name’s letters. And, I think it’s more expensive.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
there's a dude on ebay who will make you one
for cheap, as well. Doubt if it has the cool outline, but it’s better than nothing ;)
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
What's REALLY shocking...
Is that our top WAR pitcher at the moment is Pineiro. Think about that for a moment.
to continue that note...
I sent this email to my cubs fan cousin (hey we cant pick our family) in response to his email about how he’ll take 3 games over .500 for the cubs w/ all their injuries. My reply:
our ace has pitched 1.5 game(s)
our 2nd ace(ish) is struggling w/ mechanics? but clearly isn’t right or pitching like we expected
our LF is playing 2b
our 2nd/3rd best run producer is yet to play a game and his return keeps getting pushed back (he’s not too shabby w/ the glove
our team has seen the emergence or debuts of ~26 rookies or something. no less than 5 of those have major roles w/ the team—Rasmus, Thurston, Barden, Motte, Boggs/Walters (i think Perez is a rookie too technically?)
our CF got annihilated by the wall (thankfully it’s not as bad as it seemed)
and yet we’re 8 games over .500 and in first place…not too shabby
He replied:
yeah but you have Pujols
haha i love that
by kalmavet on May 11, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
perez is not a rookie
close but he is just over the qualifications
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Rule
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).
He didn’t pitch the 50 innings but he did spend more than 45 days on the active roster prior to September.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
OT scientific breakthrough
http://instruct1.cit.cornell.edu/courses/ee476/FinalProjects/s2009/rac82_mos22/rac82_mos22/index.htm
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions
Good to know
That I am above average in some aspect of life.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
me too
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
where does one go to get a...
fart cancelling cusion?
"Don't do anything till I get back!" - Jesus to the Cubs
WPA after five weeks
per FanGraphs
Hitters
Team Total: 3.094 (3rd in NL, 4th in majors)
Best 3: Pujols (1.710, 4th in NL), Duncan (1.032), Ludwick (1.016)
Worst 3 (non-P): K.Greene ( -.290), T.Greene ( -.243), Ankiel ( -.187) [PITCHERS: -.848, Welly -.228]
Best lineup spot: 3rd (1.658); worst: 9th ( -.894); otherwise: 6th ( -.330)
Best WPA by (non-P) position: 1B (1.640); worst: 3B ( -.084) [Pinch hitters: -.603]
Best single-game performance: Rasmus yesterday (.382); worst: Ankiel on 4/18 ( -.343)
Best Plate Appearance: Ankiel’s RBI 2B on 4/30 (.351); worst: Greene’s game-ending DP on 4/17 ( -.290)
Starters
Team Total: 0.698 (5th in NL, 9th in majors)
Best to worst: Carp (.410), Lohse (.214), Pineiro (.183), Welley (.009), Boggs (-.003), Walters (-.054), Wainwright (-.061)
Best single-game performance: Lohse CG shutout (+.448); worst: Wainwright vs PHI (-.419)
Relievers
Team Total: 0.213 (6th in NL, 12th in majors) [League Average, Baby!]
Best to worst: Franklin (1.065, 4th in NL), Perez, McClellan, Boggs, Boyer, Reyes, Walters, Miller, Thompson, Motte, Kinney ( -.584)
Best single-game performance: Perez yesterday (.279); worst: Motte on Day 1 ( -.833)
Pitching
Who are we beating up: 7-hitters (-.562) & catchers (-1.135); who is beating us up: leadoff (.989) & 3rd basemen(1.050) [NOTE: Pinch hitters are +.499 against us.]
Best inning – hitting: 5th (1.423); pitching: 4th (.873); combined: 4th (2.087)
Worst inning – hitting: 2nd (-1.149); pitching: 5th (-1.015); combined: 11th (-.500, one game); otherwise: 2nd (-.782)
Last two weeks: Batting +0.293, Starters -0.616, Bullpen +0.817
Trending up: Duncan (.494), Wellemeyer (.459), Ankiel (.436), Perez (.413), Pujols (.372), Motte (.215), Rasmus (.193)
Trending down: Wainwright ( -.444), McClellan ( -.386), Thurston ( -.363), Lohse ( -.249), T.Greene ( -.243), Boggs ( -.202)
Looking at the by-inning data, the Cardinals are playing their best in the 3rd, 4th, & 7th innings, and are playing their worst in the 2nd & 6th.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on May 11, 2009 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Just throwing this out there..
…It’s been kicked around quite a bit already, but I’m going to say it again…
WHY IN THE HELL ARE THE CARDINALS CARRYING SO DAMN MANY PITCHERS?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Every time I hear DanNAl or DanNRicky or JayNRicky talking about using Waino to pinch-hit or having Wellemeyer go in to bunt or whatever, I get ill. Physically ill. They simply ignore the obvious fact that this team has too damn many relievers. Does the team really need two LOOGYs who literally cannot get ANY righties out? Does the team really need Brad Thompson at all, when he rarely pitches and stinks when he does? Does the team really need Perez, Motte, AND Boyer? I mean, it just gives our crazy scientist manager an excuse to wrestle games into the ground with ridiculous pitching changes, like a few weeks ago (I don’t recall the specific game) when, with one out to go in a 3 run game, he brings in a lefty with no one on base. Why? Seriously, can a righty not get ONE lefty out? I don’t recall the game, but anyway, to the more important point…
This leaves the bench with 3 guys and the backup catcher, so basically this leaves the team with 3 bench players. TLR now has to have pitchers hit for themselves when down 5 in the 5th instead of having some dude just hit, like with Pinata the other night.
-NON-SENSICAL, DEVOID-OF-ANALYSIS RANT TERMINATED-
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on May 11, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions
well
it seems like Reyes might be becoming more than just a loogy… not saying that’s a good idea, but maybe it means we don’t actually have two lefthanded specialists? I’m really not sold on Boyer, I think the situation is still developing, they are seeing who are going to be the best people to be in the bullpen, sort of like a ST competition into the regular season
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
No days off
and Boggs and Welle going 5 innings some of the time, I’d think. Or, for that matter, PBJ going 4 innings.
Then again. For your amusement. I watched 30m or so of ESPN baseball last night before the I started cursing Joe Morgan and my wife had to wrestle a rifle out of my hands.
David Ortiz is on 3rd. No outs. Tie game. Good hitters coming up.
And Mr. Morgan wants to pinch run for him.
You heard that too?
yes i wanted to laugh. he even mentioned having jason bay bunt ortiz over from 2nd before a wild pitch moved him to 3rd.
you can take the man out of the middle infield,
but you can’t take the grit out of the man. or something.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
apparently
someone already took all the rational thoughts out of him.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
I turned off the game right after I heard Morgan
mentioned Bay bunting him over. I did not want to take the chance that my head would explode.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Dan: You know, when you take your substitute ace, and get him to stop tipping his
pitches, it’s like making a trade for an ace pitcher, without giving anything up.
Al: You know, Dan, it really is.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Amusing headline at a Yahoo Sports blog:
“Strasburg tosses 17 K no-hitter; Boras to Nats: ‘Mwahahaha’”
Those 17 K were right in line for him – his K/9 this year is 16.9 (164 K in 87.1 IP).
by BTown Birds fan on May 11, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, and he clearly does a shitty job of pitching to contact.
by BTown Birds fan on May 11, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe that'll make him drop
to our range in the draft?
/crosses fingers – but not really
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
He threw it against Air Force
does that make him guilty of treason?
positives from yesterday
-Duncan is looking to be a consistent contributor on offense (still looks very strange playing the outfield however)
-Pujols homerun was very important
-Rasmus had the extra inning winning RBI (should be a confidence booster)
-Reyes is going to be a key guy in our bullpen
negatives:
-bullpen looked extremely shaky
-defense is still leaving a lot to be desired (except that great play by Albert, etc)
-giving up an important home run to a pitcher
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rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions
Ripple effect?
Our starters have not given us very many innings as of late, which seems to have left the ’pen a heavy workload this week. I think the ’pen has done well given the circumstances and will be very good if we can get at least 6 IP from our starters.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah
I think that was one of the main reasons our bullpen was so bad last year (that and izzy’s meltdown)
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rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And that makes it better?
Just because Owings can hit decently for a pitcher doesn’t make it excusable, it was a pitcher plane and simple.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
it makes it not as bad
There’s a good chance Owings could succeed as a position player if he wasn’t a pitcher.
something about baseball team dynamics i've never understood:
players in the same role tend to hang out together. goold has his PDQ with barden and thurston today, and barden talks about hanging out with ryan and thurston all the time. i’ve wondered the same thing with relievers who hang out together, or duncan and ankiel in the outfield.
how do these guys manage? their careers are rising and falling based on taking playing time away from each other. maybe this is less so with role players — brad thompson and flores weren’t really in direct competition. but clearly in the infield mix or the outfield mix or between right handers in the bullpen, the competition is intense.
i don’t expect that duncan’s going to put ex-lax in ankiel’s gatorade or that barden is going to push brendan ryan down the stairs, but i am impressed by how many players manage to check their ambition at the door and just be friends.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I've heard that Brendan ryan is just a really cool dude
I guy from my church got to spend some time with a dugout reporter last year. It was around the time that the cards were slumping in september. The reporter said that he noticed that when Ryan was with the big birds that the clubhouse just had a much more merry feel, cause the guy is always goofing off, but when he got sent down things were kinda blah.
I’ve always really enjoyed watching the relationship that Pujols and Yadi have. Pujols is the biggest reason that Yadi is the hitter he is today. They’ve also become very good friends in the way that Pujols (and Ricky Horton too) played a big part in Yadi’s personal decision to become a follower of Jesus.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
Well don't forget all the speculation
that Ryan was in TLR’s doghouse for a long time ‘cause he wasn’t serious enough.
yeah, TLR
likes stoic veterans that never have fun.
/semi-hyperbole
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
makes a lot of sense for the bullpen guys to be friends
as far as the other guys you mentioned, they are all in the same boat, and they have no idea what happens if Glaus comes back, etc. so they probably just figure to make the best of the situation, and yeah, they are on the same team and part of a very unique situation so that has to build comraderie in and of itself.
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
it's the up and down to the minor leagues
I’ve noted that for a couple of seasons. I think they realize this is about the whims of TLR, and not about them, so long as they Don’t Suck.
That and there’s been a lot of back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation, and in turn the starters love to hang out and watch while they wait their turn for crazy pinch-hitting, and also anyone could be called on to play a different position. You’d better be comparing notes, if even Albert can get shifted to second.
(Sadly I think the various freak injuries and yes, the deaths, have probably tempered this team.)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
so the Bill James Online numbers for 2009 are finally up
Based on Dewan’s +/-, so they kind of add a “second opinion” to the UZR numbers. Though it’s not really “independant”, since they are based on the same data (BIS), they include some breakouts that UZR does not, such as categorizing GB to left, right, and straight on, and seperating out fly balls for infielders. Some very interesting results. Skip is:
Currently -6 runs total at 2B. He’s made all the expected plays to his right (which I can anecdotally say is untrue, so maybe he’s missed a couple and made a couple of unexpected plays?); he’s made one fewer “straight on” play than expected, and he’s -6 on plays to his left (yikes). Somehow he is also -1 play on balls hit in the air, which is strange; I’ve seen him make some amazing plays on popups andhaven’t seen anything catchable get down. But I haven’t watched every play. I really wish there was a day-by-day database for defense, so we could review them and see what happened on plays that are counted against a player.
He’s also ranked #3 in all of MLB in “runs saved on GIDP”. It’s funny that we were most worried about his ability to turn the double play in ST, and that seems to be his best skill.
Have to wonder if albert cutting in front of him has hurt some on slowly hit balls to his left? Though, the fact that Albert is -1 on balls to his right makes that less likely.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
positioning?
I also wondered, not having access to game video, how he is being positioned in the field. All these defensive metrics assume a ‘straight up’ positioning of the fielders. Is Tony moving skippy around the bag and just getting ‘unlucky’ on the hit ball location? Any eye-witness accounts out there?
dang
that is a very good point. the way TLR does positioning really would affect this as far as I can tell
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
from eyesight alone, I’ve been really impressed at how Skip turns two
4B - beer baseball bands blog
rocknroll ain't noise pollution
by Cards Fan in Chitown on May 11, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn't ranging left be the easier of the two?
I find that odd. Playing second in the good ol’ days, I always thought fielding in that direction was easier, especially making the throw, because your momentum is carrying you to first.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
does his handedness play a role?
he throws left-handed, too, right? if he wears his glove on his right hand, is he having trouble reaching across his body to get to the ball?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i could have looked at the picture at the top of the thread. d'oh!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
OR
you could remember that middle-infielders and 3b-men are never left-handed.
Classic underachiever.
skip is only in the loosest sense a middle-infielder.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
CasiNO QuEEEEEEN!
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
so the only "throws left" players on our team are ankiel, ludwick, and rasmus?
other than pitchers?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I know what you meant, but I can't resist
And Reyes and Miller.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i did say "other than pitchers."
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
but you forgot reyes and miller
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
i'm not following. reyes and miller ARE pitchers.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
sorry
that was the joke.
I guess my humor was lost.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
I got it
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on May 11, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
albert is smiling
because he knows something you don’t know. he… is not right handed.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
ahaha
I so wish that’s true. Imagine the big reveal… that’ll be some kind of season.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
As you wish
Inigo Montoya: You are using Bonetti’s Defense against me, ah?
Man in Black: I thought it fitting considering the rocky terrain.
Inigo Montoya: Naturally, you must suspect me to attack with Capa Ferro?
Man in Black: Naturally… but I find that Thibault cancels out Capa Ferro. Don’t you?
Inigo Montoya: Unless the enemy has studied his Agrippa… which I have.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
well, the glove is on his left hand
so you’d THINK it would be easier- unless he’s compensating for lack of range to his right by shading too far that way?
Or it could just be that there have been a lot of LHB ripping line drives in the hole between him and albert…
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
to my eye, his range has been his limiting factor
anecdotal to be sure, but i havent seen him move in any direction to get a ball very far
Wouldn't this be an ideal pre-game topic?
Show a series of Skip fielding at second base and his ability to range left and right, then compare to, say, Kennedy and Miles from a season ago as a way of gauging how the transition is working. If only I had access to all the footage FS Midwest does, the interns to pour over it, and the platform to show it…Sigh.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
or if we could get some people w/ dvr's and more time on their hands than I have
to get some of our posters doing a charting of sorts. dunno what exactly we could determine w/ this info, but would be interesting
He can certainly do the
“run like an outfielder for the basket catch” play. I’ve seen him do it into center and toward the stands past Albert.
These fielding metrics
Up front, I am so skeptical of the current metrics. I truly appreciate the effort. I definitely think we are in a better place than we’ve even been, and I am confident this area is only getting better and better each year. I just don’t know how much stock I can put into defensive measurements as it stands now. I’d love someone to convince me otherwise though.
Here’s the crux of what bothers me. Who is it that judges plays that should be made? Does the same person that judges Skip judge all the other positions on the field? Does that same person judge Brandon Phillips in the NL Central? Does he judge all NL teams, all AL teams. I guess what I am getting at is how do we know there is consistency? Is positioning taken into account? How do they judge the velocity with which a ball is hit? Is that measured or eyeballed? What about bad hops? Maybe it isn’t a person or group of people at all. Maybe it is technology based, though I wonder how to pull that one off even more.
I guess I hold it in some regard at the end of year when you have a big pool of data, but even then there seem to be some red flags that come up. To a much smaller extent, I have some of the same questions about BABIP. Who decides what is a linedrive and what is a fly ball and how do we know there is consistency there? It is only 3 main categories, and there is a ton of room within each one. All grounders aren’t equal, not are line drives, or fly balls. I do have a lot more confidence in BABIP than defensive metrics, but am just mentioning this as an aside.
To my eye, Skip is making almost all the plays he is supposed to be making and occasionally surprises making one I didn’t think he would. To contrast, Khalil isn’t passing the eye test at all yet. Maybe this says as much about my expectations as it does their performance. I honestly thought Skip would be a royal flop at 2nd, and to my eye he hasn’t been one at all.
by Merry CRasmus on May 11, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
they don't judge "if a play should be made"
they divide the field up into sections, and then define certain sections as “plays should have been made” or not. This is why you can have a 2B playing behind the bag get a bonus for making an out-of-zone play on a ball hit right at him, or a in-the-zone miss on a ball that bounces through the hole left when he was covering second base on a hit-and-run.
Which is why sample size is so important.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
sleepy, how do defensive metrics handle line drives?
that seems like a place where subjectivity could help.
if a ball rockets past the pitcher, past the second base bag, and goes uncaught, dropping in for a single in shallow center, it lands in rasmus’s zone and is credited to rasmus, right?
but what if on its path it rocketed three feet to skip’s right and skip failed to catch it? or even, it rocketed past lohse, who could have knocked it down or caught it outright? do they get no penalty by UZR or other metrics?
in the alternative, if skip gets a glove on it and knocks it down, but doesn’t make the catch, it’s now in his zone, right, as a missed play?
probably the ultimate distortion is not huge, but outfielders particularly could end up penalized if the infielders in front of them are weak on line drives. infielders who knock drives down without making outs could be hurt as well.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
And no consideration for how hard the ball was hit right?
I may not be able to range to my left to make a play on a ball that goes 10 feet to my left on one hop and ends up in Ludwicks glove in 3 seconds. If it’s weakly hit and takes 3 hops to get to the same spot it’s a pretty easy play. I suspect that the sabermetric community would view the same person a far better defensive player if they had Chris Carpenter (in his prime) sawing off bats and inducing weak jamshots to second regularly rather than a staff with a few too many Kip Wells serving up red meat over the middle of the plate. That’s just kinda how I view the defensive metrics as they currently stand. To some extent things even out over time, but I think a better pitching staff makes the defense look a little better (by these defensive measures). To me, it is almost the same effect as how a good defense can make the old school pitching metrics (specifically have ERA in mind) somewhat misleading.
I guess all that I am getting at is that I view Skip’s play at 2nd as acceptable, even surprisingly good. And I’m not at the point where I’m willing to let defensive metrics overrule this point of view. At the end of year, it would get my attention, but even then I would remain skeptical if my observations still contradict what the stats are saying. I’m pretty openminded about most measurements regarding batting and pitching, to the point I easily let the numbers challenge my own assumptions. I have nowhere near that level of comfort with defensive stats.
by Merry CRasmus on May 11, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
i think that's right
I’m really fuzzy on the details (imagine that). I know that something called “hit/fx” is in the works from MLBAM, which would do for batted balls what pitch/fx does for pitches.
Also, on BABIP, whether a batted ball is called a “line drive” or a “fly ball” is arbitrary and up to the scorer. Some parks and, thus, some players who play their home games in those parks, have much higher numbers of “line drives” than others. There’s been a couple of articles about this recently at THT.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
A couple friends of mine were talking about and drooling over how great it’s going to be when that stuff rolls in.
Guys like Bradley are exactly why we can't have a pumpkin patch anymore.
It's pretty much going to solve defensive stats
Instead of “zones”, “fb, gb, line drive” and “how hard was it hit on a 1-5 scale” we’ll have actual vectors, exit velocity and time to catch. If they take snapshots of defensive positioning before each play (with digital cameras how hard could it be to do store that 300 times a game) there pretty much will be no question on defensive stats.
Not afraid to nitpick
I hear you
I think one particular type of error that you brought up is the quantization error, i.e. making continuous variables discrete. Discretizing makes it easy to present and to some extent analyze the data at the expense of greater precision. I see no problems with the efficiency gains of discretization as long as there is no bias in the quantization. In statistical speak, if the underlying distribution is fairly normal-like and your estimator is unbiased, then the expected value should approach the true value.
So all I am saying is that the discretization error should not be that big of a deal. I don’t see any evidence that the methodology is biased for any of the metrics you’ve mentioned. In other words a player gets screwed on some plays and then gets rewarded on others so things even out in the long run. Thus, I completely agree with Sleepy’s point about sample size.
I totally agree with you about the other source of error which is related to having different “scorers” or people who actually discretize the data. If we have the same person judging every player, or mutiple persons being rotated all the time then there is no problem. But if Skip (or any player) is consistently judged by a tougher person then the data is definitely biased. I have not idea how many people are actually processing the game data.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
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