Luck is in the Cards

by Cardsray on Apr 28, 2009 9:35 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

So I was watching the game last night and started thinking about the luck the Cardinals have had thus far. What I mean by this is missing other teams aces, opposing players being DL'd, etc. My mathematically challenged brain certainly can't figure out how to quantify, over the course of a season, how "lucky" a team gets. Is there anything out there that comes close to a measurement like that? How do you quantify the effect of missing one opposing team's ace over the other? Or having one teams slugger DL'd when you play them over another. I just think it would be interesting for someone a little more experienced to come up wiith some sort of measurement.

A couple examples:

Arizona-Webb is out, we missed Haren's turn in the rotation

Cubs at Wrigley-we miss Harden's turn in the rotation, Milton Bradley is out

Mets at STL-we miss Santana's turn in the rotation

Cubs at STL- (although it didn't matter much in the last game) Bradley is out, Aramis Ramirez is out, D Lee is out with back spasms

Cards at Brave-Brian Mccann is out

I'm sure there are a few more I am forgetting. I'm not saying the cards wouldn't have won these games if these things hadn't happened, but it sure didn't hurt their chances of winning. I'm know there is some sort of metric out there that measures the quality of pitchers that a team faces throughout the year. But, it would be sort of interesting if someone were able to be all inclusive with a team's "luck" throughout the season. I, however, would not be that someone, because math makes my head hurt....therefor it is on the axis of evil.

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All that luck was negated

when we lost Carpenter and Glaus.

MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets

by dcfcblues on Apr 28, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

actually

I’d take Thurston and Barden’s combined batting stats for April over Glaus’s 2008 April, so I’m not missing Troy all that much right now. We’ll see if that changes in May. Carp…..yeah.

by Cardsray on Apr 28, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Most of my memories of Glaus are of him striking out and throwing his helmet in disgust. I feel like we’re getting better at-bat’s from the fill-ins at third this year.

As far a Carp, I don’t think we’ve missed anything (yet). Boggs had a fine spot start Saturday, and even though we lost the Walters start, we were still in a position to win the game before Perez got too much of the plate vs. Soriano. Keep that slider way on the outside!

by cloistermaximus on Apr 28, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

This is the problem with going from memory

Glaus hit .272/.372/.483 with 27 HR last year. If you think one of the replacements can do that this year, then, well, I guess we can have a longer discussion, but…

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Apr 28, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

Glaus was fantastic last year

MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets

by dcfcblues on Apr 28, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

April

He said he would take the April stats. Not neccessarily the whole year.

by cowcards on Apr 28, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Yep.

Glaus only had 1 HR in April and only 3 through the end of May. He did however post a .372 OBP through the first two months. Something I don’t think Barden or Thurston will be able to keep up.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!

by RunninRedbird on Apr 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Players slump randomly

And in April 2007, He OPSed 1.170

It’s biased to take the worst of player x and the best of player y, and say “I’m sure glad that we don’t have that player x around, because we have player y”

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Apr 28, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

allergies

4B - beer baseball bands blog
the thrill is still ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hot

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 28, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep

We’ve had our share of bad luck. And what about every team that gets to miss Wainright and/or a healthy Carp? They lucky?

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Apr 28, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Lucky

is when Kotchman gets McClellan’s fat fastball on a hitter’s count and pops it up to right field instead of parking that pitch somewhere near the Georgia Dome. You can’t tell me last night didn’t look exactly like one of those 31 games the bullpen blew last year. However, a couple of lucky breaks and we get a win which has happened already plenty of times. Sometimes, it’s even better to be lucky than healthy.

Start Colby Rasmus

by indycardsfan05 on Apr 28, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

+1

4B - beer baseball bands blog
the thrill is still ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hot

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 28, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

I was pretty nervous in that plate appearance.

by mattybobo on Apr 28, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

We've had more luck this year than last

but we’ve also played better than last year. Between Barden and Thursty, I don’t really miss Glaus’ bat.

Our rotation has been better than I expected, especially Pinata (er, Pineiro). Welly has been the only real disappointing starter. I’m not sure what to think about our ‘pen. I’m trying to be lenient with my opinion, but as the season has rolled on, I’m starting to have my faith of last season on those guys.

Despite all the bad things, the important thing is that we’ve done a good job. We’re first in the Central and playing well. Why worry?

Welcome to Baseball Heaven.

by zoomzoomj88 on Apr 28, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

that's what I was thinking

last year seemed to be quite unlucky in many ways, perhaps we will have it go the other way this season

4B - beer baseball bands blog
the thrill is still ha ha ha ha ha ha ha hot

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 28, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

2007 our bullpen was nails

Last year it frequently collapsed like a house of cards. 2009 is another turn at a solid pen.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!

by RunninRedbird on Apr 28, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions

WPA

Perhaps this could be done by taking average WPA for each player in the past on opposing teams last season and taking a ratio of the players faced versus the potential value of the lineup? Similar things could be done with pitching perhaps?

by mr banana grabber on Apr 29, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions