Emoting Small Bears
by totalloser on Apr 26, 2009 12:49 AM EDT
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It goes without saying that cardinals' fans, to put it mildly, dislike the Cubs as a team. I was curious about everyone's feelings towards individual Cubs' players. So I am hoping to get both a feeling about the person as a player and also a feeling about the non-playing aspects of the player. Perhaps, we can avoid hurling epithets for this exercise. I guess, I'll get us started with my thoughts on some of the current players:
Carlos Zambrano: There is no doubt that he is talented and can even handle the bat. He might be on the downward slope of his career now. But I don't really appreciate his fiery temper. I hated his justification for plunking JimEd a few years ago when the Cubs used to have someone on the team who used to, shall we say, do the bunny hop in the pea patch after a home run, not to mention the kiss-heart thingy.
Milton Bradely: The guy's got tools and talent. The guy's also got a lot of baggage which is why he is well traveled. He has actually endeared himself to me since he became a cubbie. He is slugging 0.173 and has gotten himself tossed already. Someone has to replace Michael Barrett as clubhouse headcase, right? I have to admit that the name is awesome. I can't imagine growing up with a name like that. It reminds me of a student I once had that had the last name Condom (not joking).
Derek Lee: This guy is a really classy player and a good guy. It's too bad that he has not been the same player since that wrist injury. That was such a great season when D-Lee and Apu went back and forth with leading the league before both succumbed to injuries and derailed their seasons.
Aramis Ramirez: This guy can flat out hit. And he flat out destroys our pitching. He seems to be the quiet type of leader that does the talking with his play on the field. I only dislike him because he is a cubbie.
Ryan Dempster: I have to say that I absolutely hate that little flick of the wrist thing that he does before every pitch. But I respect the fact that he probably signed for less money just to remain a cubbie.
Fukudome: His all-star selection last year pissed me off. I think he is way overrated and not worth his contract.
Soriano: I think he has the reputation of being a prima donna. Some of it is probably related to him not wanting to play in the outfield when he was with the Nationals. Rightfully or wrongfully, he is perceived to be a bit selfish.
Last words. As much as I enjoy the rivalry, I have learned to be careful not to indulge in schadenfreude. The season series if far from over.
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Beginning of the end
I’ve watched the Cubs play eight or nine games so far this year (I get most of the Reds games on TV as well) and it looks like important parts of their team are aging badly. DLee has been a below-average 1st baseball for over a year now, Zambrano’s slowing down, Soriano’s all or nothing, and Fukodome’s getting paid as much as our entire outfield to be average at best. I didn’t feel that the Cubs were as good as advertised coming into this year because of the moves they made in the offseason, but the way they’ve played so far, they better hope they can pull off what the Cards did in 06’. Their farm system has been gutted and the guys who are fading are still under contract for 2-3 more years. It could be a long next couple years for Cub fans
Note: Contrary to what most people would think, I like when the Cubs field good teams because it makes the rivarly more intense. If we want the national media to get excited about our rivarly, BOTH teams have to be contenders, year in and year out.
Yep. Market bias.
I do have to say that talking heads are not giving the Cards the light of day. Call me a whimp, but I really don’t mind the Cards destroying the Central, and then getting to the playoffs easily. I don’t think the rivalry is ever diminished by the Cubs stinking or vice versa. But I do see your point that an exciting down to the wire finish.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
On individual players, I'm split
I, of course, loathe the Cubs as a team as much as any good Cardinals fan, but some of the players, I agree, are hard to dislike.
Derrek Lee seems like truly one of the classiest players in baseball and it’s hard to hate a guy who has all 5 tools and seems to work hard and give back to the community. Marmol is another player I appreciate simply because the dude is straight up dominant. Last year, you’d be hard pressed to find more than maybe 2-3 better relievers in the game than Marmol.
I also find it difficult to hate Soto. Soto seems mature beyond his years, playing with a poise you usually see in 8-year veterans, but not in someone who’s barely played in one full season’s worth of games (183 games, career). He also called himself out on the Pujols steal, admitting that it was his fault and that he had been warned that Pujols would take a base in a situation like that if he wasn’t watched and also admitting that he didn’t warn his pitcher of that when he visited the mound.
Other players though, I still find it easy to hate. I will enjoy the fact that the Cubs are paying Soriano $18 million a year during his age 40 season when his legs are completely shot. I also can’t stand Ramirez simply because of the way he came to the Cubs—that ridiculous salary dump by the Pirates where they traded several pretty good players (If I remember correctly, Kenny Lofton and maybe Randall SImon were also traded to the Cubs, is that right?) for pretty much nothing. It had more of the feel of the Pirates acting like Triple-A Iowa than an independent MLB team the way it worked out.
I’ve loved watching Zambrano fail ever since a game several years back where he and Edmonds had issues with each other. Again, I’m relying on memory, but Z beaned Edmonds in his first AB, Edmonds took Z deep the 2nd AB, Z struck out Edmonds in the third AB, and then in the 4th AB, beaned him again and got ejected. I also seem to remember Zambrano doing a finger wag on the strikeout, which was just ridiculous to me because I don’t see how a pitcher should ever get cocky when a batter is 1-2 with a HR and a K against him (not to mention the other two times reaching base on HBP’s). Zambrano seems less obnoxious now, but he’s still got that combination of arrogance and anger that is really easy to hate—especially in an opposing player.
Most of the other players I really could care less about. Oh yeah! There’s The Riot, who simply because he’s another scrappy kind of player and because he’s got a cool name, I like. But it’s mostly the name.
yes
I find myself hoping Soto escapes. A good catcher is a terrible thing to waste.
As fof Z, they have Gatorade machines now. Are those harder to break?
Agree on Lee, and Riot’s cool name.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Apr 26, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on Theriot
I really dislike him because he is such a good player. He may not have the power but he has the speed to stretch base hits. They do have some nice young players like Theriot, Fontenot, and Soto, which they desperately need to balance the overspending on others. They all seem to be pretty scrappy players. So I don’t hate any of these players. It’s not like they behave like Brandon Becky [sic].
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Good thing A-Ram's hurt
He is a Cardinal Killer. So is Soriano.
I agree with you on Fukudome. He had way too much hype and did not deserve to be an All Star last season.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
I don't actually dislike many particular Cubs players per se
Soriano’s little jump is very annoying, as is Dempster’s glove thingie… but I wonder if those are just habits that are annoying because they’re Cubs. If Brendan Ryan were a Cub I would probably hate his shoulder licking, for example. I might even grow to dislike Albert’s batting stance if he had been a Cub instead of a Cardinal (that is, if I weren’t so in awe of him).
Zambrano might be the only Cub that I actively dislike, for all the obvious reasons.
Also, is the jury still out on whether Soto is for real? Wasn’t his breakout season kind of out of line with his minor league progression? Not that it’s impossible—there were similar accusations about Chris Duncan for example. Just curious what people here think. Will Soto regress significantly?
Dempster's glove thingie
is extrodinarily annoying no matter who he’s playing for. He could be our ace, and that would still get under my skin.
Soto
had a very high BABIP last year for a guy who’s pretty slow out of the box (maybe not quite Molina-esque but he’s no speedster). He hit .337 on balls in play, which is way over what he’ll regress to over his career IMO. I really felt he was very lucky last year and, coupled with his minor league data, he’s just not as good an offensive player as he looked in his first full season. I reckon he’s a .260/270 BA guy who’ll hit double figures HR quite comfortably most years, but I’m not sure he’s hugely better than Molina as a hitter (very different players, but I think Molina would hit 10-15 HR/yr if he played half his games in Wrigley). He also had nearly 15% of his flyballs disappear over the fence – whilst that’s probably Wrigley-inflated, the league average is about 4 or 5% lower than that, so he was probably a bit fortunate on 4 or 5 of his dingers too.
I like him, he looks good behind the plate, and he hits better than average for a catcher, but I’m not convinced he’s a star. Maybe a 2-3 win player, and probably not as good as 2008 made him look. With “normal” luck he’d have hit about .250, 15-odd HR and OPSed closer to .750 than .850.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 27, 2009 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Incidentally
I stayed well away from him in the fantasy draft this year; not sure he’s the top-5 catcher that most fantasy systems were reckoning…. (that said, I drafted some garbage too, so I’ve no position to gloat!)
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 27, 2009 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Soto's BABIP was also supported by a 21% LD rate
In that case, he wasn’t really that lucky last year. His HR/FB was a little high, but given the Wrigley affect, I would say that it is also sustainable. Furthermore, with a relatively young player like Soto, you have to expect some improvement in his skills. That would likely cancel out the luck factors. Soto was 4.6 win player last year. He had an excellent walk rate, and showed very good power as well. He is also a good defensive catcher. To call him only a 2-3 win player going into the future is disingenuous.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 27, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions
A 21% LD rate is nothing out of the ordinary
Yadi’s LD rate (career) is just 2% lower and he sports a .279 BABIP. Soto had a .333 BABIP last year. I’m not saying that’s all luck, but a hitter as great as Albert only manages .320 (career). I’d say Soto’s closer to Yadi than Albert, skillset-wise.
I agree about the walkrate, and I think the power is real up to a point, but normalise his hitting for luck (and I know there’s scientific ways to do this, I just haven’t got round to looking into it) and you can trim half a dozen homers, .20-.30 off his BA, and knock his OBP down to .330-.340. That would take his value down to 3-ish wins. Still, not a bad year at all, but I still feel he’s a little bit of a mirage, offensively. You could equally argue that his apparent jump in skill from 2006 (when he OPSed only .739 in AAA) to today is pretty well supported (except for the bit of luck that he’s had) by his peripherals.
I think you’re right about his win value, tbh I just plucked that out of the air. Also, you’re right that he has the potential to improve. I just don’t think he’s going to be a 4.6 win player again in the near future, or put up the sort of offensive numbers he did last year. In any case, it’s likely a spurious argument as catcher win values don’t include any sort of defensive adjustment (and I agree Soto looks half-decent behind the plate), just a one-size-fits-all positional adjustment.
So, knock the spurious win values comment out of my post, but I think the rest of the argument still stands.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 27, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
i wouldn't say "disingenuous"
“disingenuous” is a very loaded term. The guy might be wrong, maybe, although I certainly don’t think you proved that he was wrong, but saying he’s “disingenuous” is a bit over the top. He’s not willfully distorting facts or cherry-picking stats to make his argument.
FWIW I think he’s right. Soto was a little bit lucky last year. he was VERY lucky for the first couple of months, IIRC (in between meetings so i don’t have time to look it up). If he falls to an .800ish OPS, which is pretty likely, he’ll be a 2-3 win player.
Also, Soto is not that young- this is his age-26 season. He’s just a few months younger than yadi.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
I don't think that he was lucky last year
The luck factors that you and F_M keep are citing are HR/FB and BABIP. Last year, Soto had a 21.0 LD rate and the standard formula for xBABIP is LD rate plus .120. Soto’s BABIP was .337 last year, so it really wasn’t that much higher than it should have been given his LD rate.
Soto’s HR/FB was 14.7. According to hittracker.com, Soto had 4 homers that would only be out in certain parks, however, if you look at his MLB.com hit chart, you can see that he had a lot of FB outs that were very close to being homers, and may have been in other ballparks. I think that it is safe to say that those two factors cancel each other out. So, besides the fact that it seems that he was lucky last year, I really see no evidence of that actually being the case.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 28, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I won't argue that I undervalued him (most likely) in terms of wins
and I think it’s a perfectly legitimate argument that maybe he wasn’t THAT lucky last year (at least enough to throw off his value that much) but I disagree with the rationale there, quite strongly.
The xBABIP/LD thing is a way to work it out for the average hitter, and I’m not sure it really holds any water in this case. See here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-i-hate-about-line-drives/
Cliff notes: Line-drives are categorised differently at different stadiums, often by a large amount (i.e. a hit is 20% more likely than average to be called a LD in Texas and 20% less likely than average to be called a LD in Minnesota), although in this case the numbers actually suggest that Soto should’ve had more LDs than he was scored (Wrigley slightly depresses LD rate overall). However, he concludes (as has been noted elsewhere) that the +0.12 magic trick isn’t really tenable; GB and FB rates come into it, the side the hitter hits more balls to is relevant (e.g. a dead-pull hitter may have a different rate than a regular hitter) and a far more effective way to estimate a player’s “true” BABIP is to take their historical data.
Now, obviously, there’s not enough historical data on Soto to really do this, but I feel pretty confident that a .337 BABIP is lucky (career comparisons to guys who are HOF hitters with great LD rate and huge power: Pujols .322, Chipper Jones .323, Manny .345, Bonds .288). All these guys have probably been (for the majority of their career) better hitters and faster runners than Soto, and are all bona fide HOF hitters. They all have LD% over 20 (varying from 21 to 24, rounded), yet very variable BABIP for one reason or another.
Taking a guy who’s maybe closer to Soto in skillset (Yadi; not a good comp at all, really, but I feel Soto’s closer to Yadi as a hitter than he is any of the above foursome, and just wanted to make the point): Molina has a career LD% of 19.2, which would predict a BABIP of .312. However, his BABIP figure is just .279. Now, obviously that’s because he hits a lot of weakish GB and balls in the infield, and isn’t very fast. HOWEVER, the general theory that seems to hold for most players is that GB are MORE LIKELY to go for base hits than FB (obviously, FB are more valuable when they do, as they almost always fall for doubles or triples, and can score a player from first base).
What I’m saying, is that BABIP varies between players. A slow guy who hits a lot of flyballs (Soto) is likely to have a lower BABIP than a fast guy who hits a lot of groudballs with a similar LD%. The link referenced above found this:
If LD data is available, so are GB, FB & PU. I tried a more complex model using .15*FB+.24*GB+.73*LD to estimate BABIP. This worked much abtter at reducing the mean errors, even surpassing historical BABIP. For batters, the yearly RMS came down from .048 to .036, for pitchers from .041 to .031.
This estimates Soto’s “luck-normalised” BABIP for 2008 to be .306. That takes away one in ten of his hits. ALSO, this doesn’t take into account the fact that he’s likely slower than average to first base so will probably beat out fewer groundballs than your average player (incidentally, I know Yadi’s probably even slower than Soto, but this figure predicts his career BABIP to be .303, when in reality, presumably due to his soft contact on some GB and slow speed, it’s .279. Just shows that, even with a better formula, BABIP values are very much at the mercy of other factors, and far more variance, than mere LD%, GB% and FB% can predict, especially given the fact that they’re scored differently in different stadiums).
a) LD rates are bad predictors of xBABIP; historical data and more refined formulae work much better, but there’s still significant differences from player to player, park to park.
b) LD, GB and FB scoring varies between stadiums and aren’t necessarily terribly reliable (although this fact would work in your argument’s favour, to some extent).
c) There is certainly some reasonable evidence that Soto was a (somewhat) lucky hitter last year, not to mention the fact that he was a late developer that only started hitting with much conviction in the minors in 2007.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 28, 2009 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay
I’m convinced. Excellent argument.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 28, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am just lulling him into a false sense of security before I strike again!
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 28, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In fairness
My argument that he was a bit lucky in 08 might be convincing, but I think vivaelpujols was right that my original valuation of the guy was wrong…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 29, 2009 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions
oh stop with the kissy-kissy makeup stuff.
this is bloodsport! you do not understand! you do not give in! you rant and rave and call people names and use words like “ignorant” and “sentimental” and “ill-conceived” until you’ve gotten at least suspended if not outright banned.
u r not doin it rite.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
"u r not doin it rite."
That’s what she said!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on Apr 29, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
bazing
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 29, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
understandable...
Afterall, you’re a Cards fan in Chicago (or you have a really misleading name).
When I was up in DeKalb, I developed a much stronger hatred of the Cubs than I ever had before or since, simply because I had to deal with Cubs fans on a daily basis. Actually, the older the Cubs fans got, the more tolerable they got. I think you stop being obnoxious and singing the stupid “Go Cubs Go” song and proclaiming “This is the year!” when you’ve seen 30+ years of failures to even reach the World Series.
Meanwhile, the high school students I taught were straight up obnoxious every time the Cubs won what they believed was a meaningful game.
I lost a lot of respect for Harden today
that HBP of albert was weak. i know soriano was hit in the head, and that sucked, but they’ve hit 3 of us this year, before today (including albert) and that was the first time a cardinals pitcher hit a cub this year, and it was clearly unintentional. I can’t believe harden wasn’t ejected.
If I’m TLR, Harden himself takes the hit the next two or three times he comes to the plate.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Yes it was lame.
It was especially lame since I thought he tried a couple of times to hit Albert at the previous at bat.
It was clear that the Cnl was struggling with control especially early in the game. I think it is known that TLR hates the ball up around the hitter’s head not to mention actually hitting someone on the head.
But I am not sure if Harden took it upon himself to do it, or it came from Pinella. Regardless, of whose idea it was, I totally agree with you. The beauty of NL is that the pitcher bats. He he.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Yep
Harden needs to be wearing one next time he’s up against us.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 27, 2009 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I also find
it hard to believe that Harden wasn’t ejected after hitting Albert, but no warnings were issued after Welle hit Soriano, so…
by cardsgirl95 on Apr 27, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
aren't they all?
yes, yes they are
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I will emote on one player and one player only...
I hate Alfonso Soriano. Hate everything about him. The stupid hop, the crappy batting stance, the smirk, the horrible follow through on throws, the fact that he never hits a cutoff man, the one handed catches, the coming up lame when he misses a fly ball that he should have caught. All that, and he’s horribly selfish and concerned about getting his first at the expense of the team. Done? Not nearly….
I feel like he’s a guy that good pitchers will always get out but he’ll sow enough oats on bad pitchers that he’ll end up with great numbers and keep getting paid. (I have no evidence of this, this is just my perception.) He’s becoming a one tool player that used to be a five tool player because his leg injuries limit his running. He’s becoming a 3 true outcomes guy yet is still considered a superstar player.
All that puts together makes me loathe the fact that he continues to get paid…..wait, the Cubs owe him HOW MUCH per year until 2014, when he’ll be 38 years old? Forget what I just said, I LOVE ALFONSO SORIANO!!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 27, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Wow
I thought little Z would generate the most intense reaction, but boy was I wrong. I think fourstick wins the “don’t have a cow award” for the most passionate display of small bear disdain. I can’t say that I disagree with him at all, especially the part about the $136 million contract.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Soriano
will be an absolute joke in 2014. Probably worse than Sheffield is now, and he’ll be getting paid, what, 18m? Jeez.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 28, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
He gets $18M per annum
starting next year thru 2014 and I think there’s a good chance that he’s completely washed up by the end of 2011.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Fantastic!
Rec’d
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...and I'm wanting an Allen Craig call-up!
by RunninRedbird on Apr 28, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Another Cards Fan in Chicago
So I’ve seen a lot of this team. Lots of good posts already so I’ll keep my comments brief.
DLee – Good guy, gets a TON of heat from Cubs fans. He’s obviously slipping which is sad to see in a way.
ARam – Cardinal Killer. Hate him for that, but respect his ability.
Fukudome – Yes, he’s off to a hot start. Just like he was last year. Let’s see him get through a whole year without totally shitting the bed. He seems pretty aloof, but a lot of that has to do with a language barrier. Massively overpaid, but that’s how they do it up here.
Theriot, Fontenot, Haufpair etc – These are all the same person to me in my mind.
Soto – I think last yaer was a little flukey, he looks like a mess this year and is having bad ABs. It seems like he can’t hit changeups. I have heard some PED rumors but I’m not going to assume that just b/c he’s a Cub. A lot of them like throw out stories about AP and it drives me crazy. Anyway, he’s one of the more interesting stories this season IMO.
Big Z – The crazy-hot-head guy routine gets stale quick when you’re no longer the ace.
Soriano/Milton – Not even close to being worth the dough. I have to say though, I love that Soriano looks like he doesn’t give a shit most of the time, it drives the fans crazy.
Cubs Fans – Every team has great fans and idiot fans. I’ve met some die-hards up here who love and respect the game and I’ve also met shirtless beer-swilling frat boy douchebags screaming HORRRRY COW! at Fukudome in the outfield. The one main difference I see is that every freaking year, they really DO believe they are going to win the world series. Oh man, we got MB now, as long as Harden stays healthy we are going to WIN THE WORLD SERIES. It’s sad. I think it’s just a Chicago thing. Cutler traded to Bears, Chicago reaction: OMG SUPERBOWL. Bulls 2-2 vs the Celts in the 1st round? DERRICK ROSE IS THE NEXT JORDAN. That part gets old.
my opinion
Of course I dislike every cubs player. But, they are just trying to make a living like everyone else so I cant hold that against them.
I have a true passion of hate for Wrigley Field and its surroundings. The park itself is not what I hate even though it stinks like shit. What i hate is the enviroment. it seems like you always run intio a bunch of drunk jerkoffs. You can try to avoid them, but you always run into one that trys to ruin your fun (espcecially if the cards win) If the cubs win they let you know. “stick it up your poo holes” “Cards sucK” “Go F your mom” I’ve heard it all and it is absolutely absurd and ignorant. Yes, you won the game, congrats. It really takes the fun out of the ballgame. I also hate the song they play after they win. I’m sure most of you have heard it….“go, cubs, go”. I understand playing it right after the game, but when you here it playing at every bar you go to in wrigleyville it drives you insane. Then you have the street vendors selling the stupidest shirts i have seen in my life. One guy was actually selling shirts that said nothing but CARDS SUCK!. How original can you get? People were actually buying these then telling cards fans exactly what their shirt said as if we could’nt read. maybe I’m over-reacting….does anybody feel this way.
On the flipside, I did enjoy my self at a bar called sluggers. They have fast pitch batting cages next to the bar which is pretty cool. i would’nt suggest going inot the 80mph cage after a few too many cold ones though.
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