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Jeter vs. Ozzie, et al.

After hearing countless arguments about the merits of Jeter as a baseball fan living in New York, this is an objective attempt to compare him to the greats of recent generations.

 

 

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Growing up in southern Indiana, the Wiz was and is naturally a hero of mine.  I was a valiant defender of him as the greatest SS ever, and didn't meet much resistance given my geographic location.  After college, though, I moved out here to NYC and my views have been adamantly ridiculed, with many people making the case that Oz isn't even the best SS of my lifetime, citing Yount, Ripken, and Jeter as more valuable. 

I thought that Yount and Ripken at least had a defensible case, but was convinced that the Jeter argument had to be completely biased.  Everyday someone is praising Jeter's calm eyes and clutch ability and cute butt or whatever else that doesn't matter, and there was no way he could stack up to the Wiz in actual value in my mind.  So like any robot making an argument in a bar, I crunched some data from baseballprojection.com and tried to objectively compare them.

I had read a piece by Sky Kalkman a few weeks back that graded Boggs (the good one), Gwynn, and Ripken, and his methodology is shamelessly stolen here.

First, I looked at WAR for each of their seasons (more applicable than VORP because defense is clearly the deciding factor here, given the amount of times someone on the YES network says "Past a diving Jeter"):

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(sorry if the graphs are a little fuzzy, click on them for a clearer view)

As you can see, Jeter is pretty much in line or better than these guys for most of his career.  He definitely outperformed Ozzie at the beginning as a youngster, with Oz outperforming him as the two aged.  This makes sense as it is probable that defensive skills diminish less quickly than offense in a PED-free scenario.

It also makes sense to compare the two via a perspective of dominance vs. longevity, so I sorted this data by each player's best season:

 

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So what have I learned from all this?  First, Cal Ripken was good.  Really good.  Playing in all those games inflated his WAR stats (since it's counting), and "The Streak" really shows its value here.

With respect to Jeter though, the case can definitely be made that he is as valuable as Oz thus far; with Jeter's WAR numbers basically in line with Ozzie's through similar points in their careers.  As much as I hate to put someone on that level, these numbers speak for themselves without counting any World Series titles or personal accolades (albeit often frivolous or at least biased in nature) that Yankees fans weigh so heavily.

Jeter looks to be showing signs of age, however, so the ultimate judgment will hinge on whether he can maintain his offensive production to overcome his liability on defense.  The jury is still out, but this exercise has proven that Jeter has value not just in intangibles.

Of course, if anyone has any unique perspectives or other metrics on which to judge the two, please share.

 

 

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Excellent work

Is this Rally’s WAR? Also, I would suggest breaking it down by defense and offense, so that you could really see the differences in the players.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 24, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks...

…And yes the WAR came from Rally. What do you think is the best way to break out offense vs. defense? RC27 or OPS+? FRAR or something else?

I know the fielding stats aren’t perfect, but BP has Ozzie at 882 FRAR and Jeter at 183. RC27 and OPS+ are obviously in Jeter’s favor, coming in at 6.6 and 120, respectively, vs. 4.1 and 87 for the Wiz. Cal seems to blend the two, creating 5.2 R/G with a 112 career OPS+, saving 484 runs over replacement as a SS and 62 as a 3B.

I’m hesitant to compare Jeter’s hitting stats thus far to Ozzie’s career, as Jeter’s best years are behind him (and his RC27 and OPS+ will certainly come down, especially if he hangs on for too long).

Get on that leg kick

by all4tookie on Apr 24, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rally's WAR includes a fielding component based off of Total Zone

which is much better than FRAA, and an offensive component based off of wOBA. I would just graph each players individual seasons by their offensive output, and each season by their defensive output.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 24, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome idea

It really helps to get some direction on where to take this stuff next – I was just copying what I had seen before. I think I would go to the end of the earth to uphold my infallible beliefs about the Wizard.

Get on that leg kick

by all4tookie on Apr 24, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defense v. Offense

I don’t think many people other than Philikid are going to put forth a well-documented argument that Ozzie was the preeminent offensive force among his positional contemporaries, so the question is really all about defense, as the superb photo you selected suggests. Aside from the metrics that would tend to support that conclusion, we’re lucky to have all of our own personal remembrances of his spectacular plays, cemented – by those who’ve seen it – in JB’s memorable comments on the Wizard and his acquisition. Getting back to the subject of ability, my buddy from Ohio has long been singing the praises of Omar Vizquel and I imagine him and Oz have quite a bit in common on owning that portion of the diamond.

Thanks for the work!

Other mysteries remain. TL

by BKKCard on Apr 24, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Completely agree...

The question is totally the worth of Ozzie’s defense vs. Jeter’s offense. I personally don’t think anything could sway me to the Jeter camp in that regard because Ozzie was, well, Ozzie.

As for Vizquel, its pretty obvious he’s got some skills as well. I was actually thinking along the same lines as you, so I have already done the work comparing him to Jeter and Oz:

As you can see, its pretty clear that Omar isn’t quite in the same class as these other two. He is the definition of all glove no hit; at least Ozzie had some years with a good BA (FWIW) and could steal bases at a nice rate.

Get on that leg kick

by all4tookie on Apr 24, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

question...

… did you include non-SS years? from your graphs, it looks like the answer is ‘yes’. that may be a bit misleading.

from 1996-2001, Ripkin played only 9 games at SS, with the rest at 3B and DH. Yount didn’t play SS at all from 1985-1993. maybe that doesn’t matter, but if you want to compare SS to SS, and you’re using a counting stat like WAR, then it may be better to only look at the years those players actually played SS.

maybe it would make sense to have several measures: total WAR, average WAR, total WAR as SS, average WAR as SS, weighted total WAR (somehow weighted for longevity at the position), weighted average WAR.

(i’m not actually suggesting you calculate all of those. just mentioning that Ozzie’s 19th year at SS shouldn’t necessarily be compared to Yount’s or Ripkin’s year as 3B/1B/DH).

great analysis, though. it’s always fun to see these sorts of comparisons.

another thing worth noting: Jeter has only lived up to his salary once since 2002, per fangraphs, and the Yanks have over-payed him by nearly $20mn since then.

by kindred on Apr 24, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I included all years with >50 PA...

…So yes, there were a bunch of years in there not shortstop years at all. Very good points in your comment since I am trying to determine the best shortstop of the bunch.

I definitely don’t think that the couple looks at WAR that I took are going to be definitive or all encompassing. I started this as a quick back of the envelope check, and to my surprise Jeter hung right there. I think the next iteration is going to have to cut out non-SS time and get more granular with Total Zone and wOBA.

You got me to thinking about a much more complex issue though: What if Jeter would have moved for A-Rod? Where would he fit on this list? How would the switch have impacted the Yankees (ie Jeter to 2B/OF, A-rod to SS, ? at third)? I think that’s enough for a book.

Get on that leg kick

by all4tookie on Apr 24, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

ditto Vizquel

disclaimer: I only use my eyes; I am acronym illiterate:
All things considered, Omar is the best defensive SS I’ve ever seen… stronger arm than most and tops in accuracy. Extremely ‘intelligent’ (a’la Jeter, I confess) and nearly as acrobatic as the Wizard. Much better range than Jeter or Ripken, and equivalent to Oz’s.

As for Ozzie…I love the guy, can’t help but… however he replaced the most “talented” ss I have ever seen (altho for sure NOT the most valuable.)

Last point on Vizquel… it’s a subtle compilation distinction that puts him at the top of the list…for me. I’m the same guy (by the same subtle logic and eyesight) who would vote for Steve Finley as the best CF I ever saw. Spell it DEPENDABILITY.

by the Tewk on Apr 30, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Ozzie made them count 'chances'

that weren’t ever chances for some of those other guys – just by getting close to balls they wouldn’t have.

Its almost impossible to quantify unless you were able to break game tapes down and see just how far he ranged compared to them.

Interesting though

So imitate the action of the tiger!.
Lend the eye a terrible aspect
- and teach them how to war!
Henry V iii

by lietothegirls on May 2, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions  

also...

toss in Jeter’s Yankee variable and it becomes totally BS. Compare the supporting cast of players between Ozzie’s Cardinals teams and Jeter’s Yankees Dreamteams.

Give me a supporting cast like that, and grant me a decent ability to field and hit, and I could be the next Jeter with that Yankees team. Ozzie had what? Mediocre stars that were put on the team because they were the right pieces to the team, not an extra fantasy stat on a huge payroll. Individual skills are amplified by the teams that they are put into.

I don’t doubt that Jeter is good, but that’s like comparing David Cone to Bob Gibson… it just doesn’t matter.

by Niemann on May 2, 2009 10:59 PM EDT reply actions  

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