Rain Delay Programming
by DanUpBaby on Apr 20, 2009 8:45 AM EDT
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PrintI'd love to put a copy of Baseball's Greatest Shortstops into the station's VHS deck and wait for them to pull the tarp, like FSN Midwest, but blogging is a different game—neither rain nor sleet nor dark of night, etc. Some weekend observations and links:
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Over at Future Redbirds there's a look at P.J. Walters's pitchf/x data. And at MLB.com's vastly improved video portal—borderline Hulu-esque, at this point, after a years-long nightmare of Windows Media files and pop-up windows—there's this run-down of his strikeouts.
Walters is, if nothing else, a unique, exciting player to watch. He's a type two junkballer—the same predilection for the outside corner, the same iffy fastball, but it's coupled with a ton of swings and misses. Most of these guys are left-handed; Ted Lilly was the one that came to mind, perhaps because his Bill Murray look-a-like headshot is staring me in the face from the phantom game-thread, but there are others.
Take a look at the Play Index's list of recent strikeout pitchers—none of the right-handers all the way down the list seem like decent comps, which is certainly worrying. But for now it's a lot of fun—both his off-speed pitches are just a sight to see, like slow-moving, jam the joystick all the way outside videogame pitches.
From the strikeout roll you can see almost immediately where the regression might come—hitters, Soriano aside, aren't going to keep swinging at that circus slider on the outside corner. And it's only one game, but he's yet to dispel the idea that he's been forced to nibble as the hitters get better and stronger.
My eerie comparison of the day is to former Yankees farmhand Tyler Clippard, who—well, stop me if you've heard this one before. Clippard was a guy who throw in the upper 80s with a big curveball/changeup combo who racked up incredible strikeout totals in the low minors but was never highly touted (in Yankees terms.) His changeup looks like a screwball, but isn't.
Anyway, Clippard started to walk people as he moved through the minors, and he got beaten up in six MLB starts with the Yankees after a nifty debut. While some projection systems are still confident in his ability to strike people out, they're also confident in his ability to walk five batters a game in the process.
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I'm sorry to do that to you, Gary Daley
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Chuck's Ankiel entry is pretty comprehensive, and perhaps the most justified use of the title-exclamation-point in the history of this blog. But I think the story in his fangraphs contact stats is really the way he's stopped swinging at pitches inside the strike zone—the Z-swing% Chuck mentions.
Plate discipline is great, and I was excited about Ankiel's efforts to draw more walks, but a guy who swings and misses at as many mediocre pitches as he does has a limited range in which to operate; he can't stay in at-bats because eventually pitchers are going to throw it by him. It was an admirable effort, but converted pitchers, much like converted catchers, have to live or die, in the end, with the natural talent that let them make the switch in the first place.
That said, I think he's in the process of being prematurely buried. A lot can happen in a month and then not mean much at all, and whatever your opinion of his defense—I think there's something goofy going on with his UZR from last year, which puts a lot of weight on a short, three error stint in left field, personally—I think it's fair to say he maintains some inbuilt advantage against Chris Duncan in that regard. Obviously Ludwick needs to play every day, but after that I still think it's something of a push.
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I never thought I'd be ENCOURAGED
by a three-inning three-homers-allowed outing by a pitcher at any level, but I’ll be damned if I didn’t pop a smirk when I saw that infinite k/bb ratio and 18 k/9. Ah, the soft bigotry of low expectations.
You must hate baseball, then
And eat salads at games instead of hot dogs. I’m joking, of course. Shysterball linked to this nice piece which cries out for a return of FJM.com. A taste:
Plus, it often seems like the good people behind sabermetrics get no joy whatsoever out of baseball….
Sabermetricians want to go to the ballpark, see a soft-tossing lefty throw ground-ball outs, witness a Kent Hrbek lookalike get plunked in the gut by a heater (hence, get on base), enjoy a Greek salad, and come home with something to criticize…
I buy many a statistical book each offseason, but I save up money to go to games live and budget to overpay for beer and hot dogs. I am sick and tired of this anti-statistical analysis line of attack because it is so completely baseless and absurd.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
soft-tossing groundball lefty?
WRITER: It lacked a cohesive structure—you get the feeling that he doesn’t even really like baseball.
ALVY: Oh, god, I’m gonna have a stroke.
WRITER: It’s—they just like soft-tossing lefties, you know? This defense-independent pitching thing, it’s—it’s indulgent, is what it is.
ALVY: Soft-tossing—Look, you don’t have any idea about Voros McCracken’s work.
WRITER: Well, I happen to write about baseball for a newspaper, so I think my opinions have a great deal of validity.
ALVY: Oh, do ya? Well, I happen to have Voros McCracken right here, so just let me—come over here a minute.
VOROS: I heard what you were saying; you know nothing of my work! You mean my whole statistical model is wrong! How you ever got to write a column about anything is totally amazing!
It's like the whole notion
that because those people don’t like to think about the game marginally and incrementally by dissecting it and combining stats with what they see, we’re the “elitist” people who can’t enjoy baseball for the game that it is. In fact, I enjoy it more because I’m able to see the game a different way, I know more of the players and their capabilities, and I’m able to find answers to questions that I have about the game through statistical analysis.
Ever since I got involved in sabermetrics I’ve been dominating the two fantasy leagues that don’t have saber guys playing in them, simply because I have better tools to analyze players and I can find more sleepers to pick up for cheap in the draft and during the season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I play fantasy with
guys who really love baseball but don’t know what PECOTA, CHONE, etc. are. I look at all the projection systems going into the draft and regularly dominate my leagues – especially the rotisserie ones. I feel like I’m cheating, in a way, for using such good information. I’m not the commissioner, but they also give me a lot of say on what categories we use. That makes me feel bad, too. But I also LOVE to win;)
Heh
I’m currently in my first serious fantasy league. It’s still early, but I have a “Pujols-WAR-like” lead in points at the top. I have 77… the team currently in 2nd is about 69, the next three or four guys are all in the 60’s. Two of my main bits of strategy were to make extensive use of fangraph’s free projection data, and to pick SS, 2B, and C early. After all, it’s a lot easier to get production from outfielders and first-basemen. I never played the game as a kid. I also happen to like Greek salad, even though I’d rather have a pretzeldog at the game.
You never played as a kid?
Aw man, I’m sorry. You should join an adults league. Nothing beats playing baseball (or even beer league softball) IMO. A couple of friends and I were discussing this on Saturday, and I told them if I could be anything in the world, it would be a major league baseball player. The most fun I had in my life was playing baseball, chasing down fly balls in the outfield and legging out a double.
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh. It would be very fun to join some sort of league, if there is time.
I was a bitchin’ pingpong player in my prime though.
Haha
I was the Tom Glavine of my fraternity in ping pong. Everyone around me was all about overpowering you with “slams” and “power serves” (those are the technical terms). I beat people by putting an ungodly amount of spin on the ball and not beating myself (i.e. not putting it into the net). People looked at me and said, how could he possibly be as good as he is with the way he plays. But it worked.
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Being a smaller guy I could never compete with my good friend's massive forehand
He was probably better than me overall, but only by a bit. Nobody’s backhand was as good as mine. It is amazing how good you can get at placing your shots when you waste most of your freshman year practice enough. I also got good enough lefthanded to play against less skilled players and make it an honest game (i.e. I didn’t have to hold back and it was still competitive)
I was always a one shot wonder
My forehand was totally dominant: accuracy, power, spin—-but I was totally defensive with my backhand. Just had to work it to my backhand a few times in a row and I’d screw up and it never got better. I eventually started cheating and circling around to set up a forehand but there’s a whole lotta risk in that…
Not afraid to nitpick
I remember in little league
my greatest moment was a Willie Mays style catch in center field where I was chasing down the ball near the fence in center and I had to turn around and make a bucket style catch, I couldn’t believe I actually caught it (nor could anyone else). other than that, the best thing I did was hit a double, I didn’t have very good bat skills
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
one of my most memorable plays
was playing JV ball my freshman year in HS. I was playing center and a hanging curveball got crushed to dead centerfield. I played pretty shallow for our field (it was 400 ft in dead center, 345 in the corners — bigger than many major league parks), so I was on a dead sprint directly to the fence.
I didn’t think I had any chance to get to the ball, but at the last second, I threw my arm out as far as I could and the ball somehow fell right in a la The Sandlot. I still have no idea how I caught it; I didn’t even look the ball into my glove. It just made its way in there.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
My most memorable play, from Babe Ruth ball (I don't know if y'all called the level above LL that)
My team was facing this team from another league across town. The guy they had pitching last night was throwing smoke I’d never seen before. I mean, it felt like it was 100 mph (surely it was only like 60 though). He had embarrassed our whole team the entire night. No-hitter going. I step in. I’m mortified. I’ve choked up on the bat at least six inches. I’m in the very back of the batter’s box. He hurls a fastball over the plate, I essentially close my eyes, and with a defensive swing, knock a soft linedrive single into right field. Only kid on my team to hit the guy. Granted, I didn’t pull the ball or put a charge into it or anything, but damn it, I hit him!
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't have a good LL story, i wasn't allowed to play BB till high school
and my most memorable moment found me on the wrong end of a walk off home run. for .00001 of a second i was a hero,,,, then,,,,, well lets just say i still see that play in my nightmares.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
beer league softball is key
I played baseball from t-ball through college, so if I didn’t have softball now I would probably go crazy. One of my favorite non-pitching moments was robbing a homerun during batting practice. it didn’t count, but how often do you get to jump up and take one back from the other side of the fence?
pitching wise
I threw a no hitter my sophomore year in a JV game. the other team sucked, but a no hitter is a no hitter
I threw four
the summer between freshman year and sophmore year. Of course I was playing against guys one and two years younger than me, but it was still cool. Never did get a perfect game, though. Damn defense.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
My only thought
on the C thing is that catchers tend to play fewer games than people at a lot of other key positions, so I usually won’t reach for catcher production. I did draft McCann in one league this year. I have Inge in a couple of leagues and I picked him up after the draft.
That stinks that you didn’t get to play the game as a kid. An adult league would do you good – a softball league if nothing else.
I was able to get Hanley Ramirez, Utley, and McCann
It’s only a nine person league. I figured if I can get the best of some premium positions I’d try it out.
Nice
My current lead in my dad’s old timers league is 37 points (13 team 5X5 ROTO). It’s plenty early yet, but I’m leading in 7 of the 10 categories (R, HR, RBI, W, K, ERA, WHIP) so far, although my “get a closer late” strategy isn’t working because Devine got hurt and Motte hasn’t done anything. My only 3 saves have come from Rodney. I have sick pitching for a 13 team league — I’m carrying 10 starting pitchers on my roster and all but Kawakami and Penny are #1 or #2 starters on their respective teams. I have Lincecum, Burnett, Billingsley, Harang, Bedard, Carmona, Jurrjens, Cahill, Kawakami, and Penny. My strategy, just like last year in this league, is to pile up wins and strikeouts at a phenomenal rate in the first 4 months of the season, then trade off a couple of starters who are horrible second half guys (Carmona and Bedard come to mind) at the trade deadline to pick up some steals, saves, or whatever I’m lacking at that time.
Last year at the deadline I had 18 win lead and a 200 strikeout lead and dealt my entire starting staff except for Lincecum and Sabathia for offense, while filling those spots with stud middle relievers like Ziegler and Arredondo. I ended up first in wins by 2 wins (mostly due to CC throwing on 4 days rest all the time and Arredondo someone getting 5 second half wins in middle relief) and finished first in K’s. You’d think that someone would have copied that strategy or made rules to guard against it, but they didn’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ziegler for the A's
I just picked him up in my league.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah he's a hometown Missouri State boy
i drafted him when i saw devine was down
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
the classic "don't pay for saves" is not working so well this year
the lower-tier closers have been horrid so far. I have Mike Gonzalez and I had Motte. I dropped Motte and picked up Scott Downs from Toronto. He’s been awesome, but he doesn’t get any saves. I’m hoping BJ Ryan and his 87-mph fastball eventually loses the closer’s job there.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
I don't pay for saves or steals in any league
I try to pick up a one category guy for steals at the very end of the draft (like Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino before everyone found out about him). I’ve never drafted a closer higher than round 8 in my entire fantasy career.
You’d be doing ok if you’d gotten Ziegler and Francisco so far. I just thought that Devine was going to have a huge year and I missed out on Francisco and had Motte as my backup plan. I also figured the Fuentes might lose his job at some point in the season, as he’s been known to do, and the Arredondo might get some saves that way.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm in the same boat on
saves. I waited until very late and got some guys that aren’t doing the job. I picked up Downs, too – and I just picked up Corpas in one league.
I certainly watch pitching differently
Every groundball that goes through against the Cardinals is “BABIP bullshit” and every groundball that doesn’t go through when we’re hitting is “BABIP bullshit”.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Apr 20, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
as usual, posnanski has a great thought
on this topic, explaining why he thinks mike jacobs is a dreadful player but still his favorite.
a taste:
The other day he faced Cleveland’s Jensen Lewis, and he took a high fastball for a ball, and then watched a 90-mph fastball go by that was right in his wheelhouse, I mean the perfect Mike Jacobs pitch — 90 mph, just above the knees, outside but caught too much of the plate. That’s the sort of pitch you only get once, and you could see Jacobs grimace for a second as if to say, “Man, that was it.”
Two pitches later, stunningly, Jensen Lewis threw that exact pitch again. This time it was 87 mph. And this time Jacobs did swing. He jumped out of his shoes to swing. And he hit it 700 miles to center field. It clanked off the railing out there, bounced behind a wall, an absolute mammoth shot. Will he do that enough to make himself a valuable player? Maybe not. But, yeah, it will be fun every time he does it.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Media guides
I asked this question a few days ago but I think it got lost in a game thread. Is it possible to buy Cardinals media guides online? Only source I can find is ebay.
I looked
around at the official team store. No media guide, but there is this whimsically Cardinals-themed Mr. Potato Head toy.
Are you in St. Louis?
If not, maybe you could call the team store and see if they can sell you one.
Classic underachiever.
Nah, I live in Chicagoland
I’ll call the store I guess then go ebay if necessary.
A few years ago
I bought them at the team store—2003 and 2004, I think. I don’t know if they still sell them for the public or not.
They are
I got one at the team store on opening day while buying a sweatshirt. It’s filled with the kind of useless information that scratches right where I itch.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
you know fritz, they got a pill for that now
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
humor fail
i should have said, they have a balm for that.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
Media guides
I looked several times last year, and never saw it appear online. I haven’t gone to a game yet this year, but I’d assume they’re still available at the stands.
eBay
I found some on eBay and they are pretty fairly priced, I think. Plus, there are some cool looking media guides from seasons past.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
hey, last I searched
I didn’t see the 2005. I’d like to have one that features the MV3. I think I’ll pull the trigger today.
Thank goodness
Someone else regularly searches for old Cardinals media guides, too….
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
All roads lead to Durham (by bus, of course).
I pictured Miller, Motte, Perez, and Reyes sitting around after Saturday’s game, drinking beers and one of them saying, “What we need is a rain out.” Of course, Reyes would wield a bat and break into Wrigley (of all the big league fields, it could probably only work at Wrigley) and turn on the sprinklers. Of course, Mother Nature provided the rain out, but the ’pen really could use a couple of days off after the Carp injury and the way we leaned on them vs. the Cubs. Hopefully, these two days off will be just what the doctor ordered (not Barry Weinberg).
After twenty-some odd hours of anticipation for Game 4 of what was an epic series, the anticipation for Cardinals baseball will building for another twenty-some hours. What a bummer for fans. I did, however, love the fact that they still had Miller, Morgan, and Phillips do their Sunday Night Baseball intro as if the game was still going to happen. Morgan did a piece comparing Pujols to HoFers that I’m still not sure made much sense. It was amazingly bizarre.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It's a real surprise Pujols isn't in Morgan's Fave Five
He’s so consistent.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Apr 20, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was surprised they didn't have another game lined up to show instead
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Game of the Week
MLB roadblocks the coverage to force every baseball fan to watch the Sunday Night Baseball game and listen to Morgan & Phillips. That way, they drive up advertising revenue by increasing viewership while dumbing down the fanbase with M, M & P’s analysis on “ops” (pronounced as a word, no as three letters).
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
the last few seasons the Rangers have had games on sunday nights
but only during july & august when it’s really, really hot down there. don’t know if they’ll keep doing that. but they have been the only other sunday night game i’ve seen in forever.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
Probably been brought up somewhere else,
but I just noticed that both clubs have an off day today, so why didn’t they just play it today? still rain in the forecast?
I think they could have gotten it in
not raining right now, but it looks like it could start raining again at any moment
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
The better question...
Why do the Cubs have ANOTHER off day already? I hope that means they’re playing almost every day in September…
I haven't liked the scheduling in the last few years
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
In theory
a lot of people agree with you. Supposedly the scheduling was done by hand but the same husband/wife team until a few years ago, when MLB turned it over to a computer.
I’ve never researched it. When I read that I thought “man that sounds like an urban legend.”
THEIR NEXT OFF DAY IS MAY 11TH
if that helps
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 20, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a frustrating series
We easily could have one or lost all three games. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your perspective), we only got one.
Frustrating and dramatic
It was very entertaining. Each game, I felt like we would lose simply because the Cubs had the last chance at the bat. Unfortunately, that feeling prove correct…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
What's very frustrating to me
We’re 8-5 right now. In four of those five losses, we’ve had a lead of at least two runs. We’re never going to make the playoffs if we can’t hold leads at that kind of rate.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
At least two runs...
after the starter was gone to boot (I’m pretty sure). I like this bullpen, but they better start coming thru or this season is going to look a LOT like last.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 20, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing I learned about our pen this weekend
We have two guys who are fantastic at getting lefties out. When they face righties, that’s when trouble starts.
Trever Miller vs. LHB on Friday: 1.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Trever Miller vs. RHB on Friday: 0.0 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 K
Dennys Reyes vs. LHB on Saturday: 0.1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K
Dennys Reyes vs. RHB on Saturday: 0.1 IP, 2 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 K
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yep...
Friday watching Miller pitch and Soto coming up with first open and Fontenot on deck, 2 outs. I’m SCREAMING don’t pitch to him…how do you let Miller pitch to Soto there? I don’t care how bad he’s slumping.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Even better than one or fewer IP as the basis for this opinion
Their career lines:
vs. RHB — 1857 PAs/.282/.355/.434/.810
vs. LHB — 1049 PAs/.236/.329/.338/.667
vs. RHB — 1045 PAs/.296/.384/.450/.833
vs. LHB — 876 PAs/.232/.323/.377/.701
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Understood
It was just very apparent listening to the Friday game on the radio, Miller K’s the first batter (a lefty), gives up a single to the second batter (a righty), K’s the third batter (a lefty), gives up a deep, run-scoring double to the fourth batter (a righty), gives up a run-scoring single to the fifth batter (a righty), gets the sixth batter to fly out (a lefty).
What’s wild about the stats you cite is that both guys are just about the definition of LOOGYs, but both have faced more RHBs in their career. Reyes has faced almost twice as many RHBs as LHBs.
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the problem
when your starter can only go 4 innings. You can’t have your LOOGY’s pitching to one or two batters like they should. They have to pitch full innings — otherwise you burn up your bullpen. Why they took out Walters I have no idea, since he was finally settling down in the 4th. He’s only thrown around 90 pitches and was on 5 days rest. He could have gone another inning at least, possibly two. Then he gets lifted for a LOOGY when there’s a long man already warm in the pen (Boggs) who could come in and pitch a couple of innings, possibly three, to get the team to McClellan and Franklin, who have been pretty good to start the year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 20, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Completely agree
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree about Walters
He was at 98 pitches after 4 innings. This is what his pitch count looked like per inning:
1st: 29 pitches
2nd: 31
3rd: 18
4th: 20
So, if you leave him in for the 5th, he’s facing the 2-3-4 hitters, and you can expect him to throw at least 20 pitches, I assume. That would almost definitely put him at about 120 pitches to get through 5, and I just don’t think you can do that to Walters. That’s unfair to risk an injury to a young pitcher when it’s April.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
You can still have him start the inning
if you’re going to bring in a relief pitcher and not Boggs. If he gets a couple of quick outs, so much the better, if he gets in trouble, you can play the match-up game with Reyes, Miller, Motte, Perez, or bring in McClellan and have him pitch 1 1/3 or 1 2/3 innings.
As it was we ended up with a lefty pitching to a couple of righties, who ended up pushing the Cubs close enough to beat us in the late innings.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
whether that was the right thing to do in the moment, to win the game
seems at best doubtful.
but you can’t lose sight of the fact that walters was on his first start. running him out to even 110 pitches seems like a bad idea on his first start if we want to keep using him.
i think the better answer would have been to put boggs in in the fifth (who was stretched out as a starter and would have been starting in memphis on that day if he were not in the majors). boggs should have been able to handle three to four innings.
i think miller was put in because the pitcher’s slot was coming up and tony wanted to pinch hit there. that seemed penny-wise and pound-foolish to me. one wasted at-bat was not gonna kill us that day. having miller pitch to — what? three? four? — right-handers did.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
There was a comment in one of the PD articles
That seemed to suggest Boggs was having trouble getting warm and may not have been ready for the 5th.
now that you mention it, i remember the same thing.
why the hell not, then? walters was really struggling in the first two innings and was at 60 pitches after two innings.
how could one not have realized after two innings that boggs was coming in for a multi-inning night?
if anything, he was lucky to come in for the fifth and not the fourth. maybe some blame needs to land on boggs or on the bullpen coach for not warming up properly.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I don't think it goes on Boggs
The guy was called up from a starting role in Memphis. Warming up for a bullpen appearance is much different than preparing to start. It’s not really his fault he was put into a different role.
he probably should get credit, actually
for not going out there if he wasn’t prepared to pitch. That’s (one way) blowouts and/or injuries happen.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Valid point
I suppose I don’t have a problem w/ Walters starting the 5th, but the more you push that pitch count over 100, the more dangerous it gets. Say he gets two outs rather quickly, but then the last guy he faces has a 10-pitch at-bat. All of a sudden, he’s up around 115-120 pitches.
Another factor you have to think about is his confidence. He had a great turnaround after his unsettling 1st and 2nd innings, so it’s nice to get him out of the game w/ a little success. You throw him out there for the 5th against the meat of the order and he gives up runs, and you’ve squashed that turnaround.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
Kinda depends
on whether we’re planning on Walters being the “next great thing”, which I don’t think that he is. I don’t think he’s going to be a major league starting pitcher — he’s a middle innings bullpen guy or long man if you ask me, so he really should be going out to give the Cards five innings if he can get there without giving up 10 runs. As well as he had been pitching the prior two innings, it would have made more sense to run him out there again while keeping the bullpen loose in case he got into trouble and then dealing situationally.
IMO, it doesn’t matter to me whether he goes out on a good note or a bad one, but the fact remains that not running him back out there may have hurt the Cardinals chances to win the game.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think that Boggs should have been used
Boggs was only on the roster to protect against a starter not going deep into the game, so he should have been ready to go to start the 5th inning, imo.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
I think if (big if)
his command improves he’s a starting pitcher. Near the back end, for sure, but a guy that can give you some production. The changeup and the slider both looked pretty good when he was locating them. Both pitches help his fastball quite a bit.
Agree and disagree...
I think Walters should have been sent back out for the fifth. Our BP was already taxed, and 1 more IP from Walters would’ve been nice.
I don’t have a problem going with Miller for the inning there, but I don’t get letting him pitch to Soto in that situation. With TLR being sucn a platoon matchup guy, and Miller having a huge platoon split I don’t see how he (TLR) lets that happen.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
bingo
this is something that is controllable… not like the first game of the season, which will happen sometimes.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That makes me optimistic
especially considering that Ankiel, who most of us thought would have at least a good start to the season, has looked horrible, Glaus hasn’t factored in yet, and Carpenter is down again early in the season. I’m just glad the team is competing as well as it is.
If Pujols is Pujols last weekend, we win all three of those games. That’s probably the most times Albert’s left guys on base in a series in his entire career. As it was, we played the run away favorite in the division to a close win and two close losses.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I was a little disappointed
that when I went to see Saturday’s game I didn’t get to see any Pujolsian heroics. I did get see him probably leave quite a welt on Oquendo’s leg though.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at the game
So your odds of seeing either a) a win or b) Pujolsian heroics are pretty low.
I did see Pujols hit a HR once; a line drive that didn’t seem to go over my head when I was sitting in the 2nd deck. But it was still a loss. heheh.
Thing I’ve meant to mention – MAN he went from 1st to 3rd quickly; dunno what inning it was. I checked the outfielder and BAM Pujols was already at 3rd. He really seems to be running well.
you didn't by chance
get to throw a slice of pizza on anybody that was cheering when Oquendo was hit, did you?
is that what happened?
I was sitting in the second section behind the plate, and all of a sudden everyone was going nuts over there.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
It occurred to me yesterday...
… and this could certainly be me being too melodramatic, but it occurred to me that this weekend will turn out to have been a pivotal one for the 2009 Cards when all is said and done. When the story of this season is written, it will include either “the April series in Chicago exposed flaws that the team simply couldn’t overcome,” OR “frustrating losses to the Cubs in April galvanized the team and they never looked back.”
I’m hoping for the latter.
Lou Brock loves Lamp.
Probably melodramatic
Remember, the 2004 Cards were 12-11 after April. That club lost 3 out of 4 to start off the season vs. then-lowly Milwaukee and also suffered a brutal sweep at the hands of the ‘Stros. We all know that club ended doing. I’m not saying that we’ll win 100 games or that we’ll win 83 games. I’m saying that we have played about 8% of our games. There’s a lot of season left.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
WPA after two weeks
Hitters
Team Total: 1.565 (5th in NL, 7th in majors)
Best 3: Ludwick (.983, 3rd in NL), Duncan (.791), Pujols (.747)
Worst 3: Ankiel (-.797, 3rd worst in majors), Greene (-.343), Freese (-.195)
Best lineup spot: 3rd (.747); worst: 2nd (-.383)
Best WPA by position: RF (1.163); worst: CF (-.891)
Best single-game performance: Ludwick on Friday (.317); worst: Ankiel on Saturday (-.343)
Best Plate Appearance: Luddy’s 3-run HR Friday (.278); worst: Greene’s game-ending DP on Friday (-.290)
Starters
Team Total: 1.301 (1st in NL, 3rd in majors)
Best to worst: Carp (.410), Lohse (.372), Wainwright (.360), Pineiro (.165), Welley (.048), Walters (-.054)
Best single-game performance: Lohse CG shutout (+.448); worst: Wellemeyer vs PIT (-.276)
Relievers
Team Total: -1.367 (14th in NL, 26th in majors)
Best to worst: Franklin (.645, 4th in NL), McClellan, Boggs, Reyes, Miller, Perez, Kinney, Motte ( -.777, 2nd worst in NL)
Best single-game performance: Franklin on Saturday (.261); worst: Motte on Day 1 ( -.833)
Pitching
Who are we beating up: 5-hitters (-.603) & catchers (-.788); who is beating us up: leadoff (.649) & left-fielders (.703)
Best inning – hitting: 3rd (1.129); pitching: 4th (.550); combined: 3rd (+1.298)
Worst inning – hitting: 2nd (-.376); pitching: 5th (-.632); combined: 5th (-.559)
NOTE: The relievers look OK according to traditional stats (43.1 IP, 36 K, 17 BB, 40 H, 4.98 ERA), but almost all of the runs allowed have been valuable, hence the horrid WPA total. Of the 29 runs that the bullpen has allowed to score, only 6 runs were scored with less than a neutral Leverage Index (< 1.0). Plus, keep in mind – we’ve lost 5 games by a total of 9 runs.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
by Solanus on Apr 20, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
great stuff, solanus. thanks.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
or relievers
are obviously not intimidating anyone
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Relief core
They have been the anti-Juan Encarnacion (‘07 version). Instant Breakfast surprisingly kicked ass when it really mattered, but nobody really noticed because he looked like crap so much when it didn’t matter.
The bullpen is actually doing OK, especially when the game isn’t on the line, but almost every run that crosses the plate against them has a big effect on the game, so they get dumped on more than they probably should be.
Don't argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. - anon.
Well, at least we're not the Nationals
Not only do they have a worse bullpen, but they can’t spell, either.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Haha
“Natinals” almost sounds like it could be dirty slang
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Or an injury of some sort
He pulled his natinal ligament, could be out until after the allstar break.
she's a damn dirty lair is what that girl is
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
Can't wait to see the Cards in DC
in a couple of weeks!
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe
The best part
It wasn’t just one player. Dunn and Zimmerman were both wearing Natinals jerseys less than a week after the team sent Wilfredo Ledezma out on the field wearing this.
At least none of the letters were upside down this time. Inverted N, is that something like the inverted W?
"There are three things the average man thinks he can do better than anybody else: build a fire, run a hotel and manage a baseball team."- Rocky Bridges
by That's a Winner on Apr 20, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
that's awesome. i thought the above picture just showed the "o" covered up by the
gap at the buttons. but the “o” actually should be on top, so it’s just missing?
i have no words.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
if that shows where we are at....
we are in trouble
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Small Sample Size
Ank’s perfromance, scouting reports aside, reeks of a small sample size. If he doesn’t press, he’ll be fine.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
It is
but we’re discussing a small sample of at-bats here. Chuck isn’t trying to predict his future performance, he’s statistically breaking down his performance thus far to come up with a reason why he’s struggling. He’s swinging and missing a lot, and swinging at a lot of pitches that aren’t strikes, which if you’ve seen his at-bats so far this year would be totally obvious to you. His IFFB % is also pretty high — indicating that he’s chasing a lot of pitches up and popping them up on the infield. I think that Chuck’s conclusions are pretty valid:
- He needs to be more patient and look for balls in his zone that he can handle.
- He needs to focus on making contact with balls in the strike zone.
- He needs to better pitch recognition so he can lay off the bad pitches and focus on hitting good ones.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
wow
Manny Acta promised “a complete overhaul” of their bullpen, so they moved FOUR guys out, and four more up from AAA.
Unfortunately, one of the four new guys is Kip Wells, so things won’t really get better.
by Phizzle on Apr 20, 2009 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Didn't Kip pitch well as a reliever
for Colorado?
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a nice April
after that, I guess it depends on what your definition of “well” is.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Their Wang for our Dick
Perhaps we can send Dick to New York for the equally, currently inept sinkerballer Chien Ming Wang.
Doubtful, but I really wanted to use that title.
Ankiel probably should have been dealt in the off-season. The lack of faith in either Colby Rasmus to be competent or Chris Duncan to be healthy probably blocked Rick being sent packing.
With Daryl Jones going all Ray Lankford on the Texas League, Dick certainly won’t be resigned. The clock on his days in St. Louis is ticking.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions
imo
it is possible that no one wanted him in a trade (possible head case)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Question for the general community about Walters
I don’t follow the prospects nearly as close as some people here. Were his pitches, and ability to strike out major leaguers a surprise? Obviously it was the first time any of those Cubs had seen him if I’m not mistaken, and it’s a small sample. But it seemed like people on this board at least were very impressed with some of his skills.
I was at the game Friday
and he made everybody look downright silly swinging at that junk he was throwing. I have no idea about if this was a surprise or not but he had Alfonso Soriano swinging wildly.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
In Memphis 2 years ago
he struck out a batter an inning. Despite what Al was saying on TV, Walter’s IS a strikeout pitcher just not of the overpowering variety.
His problem was lack of control on his fastball. If he could have painted the corners with it consistently (or the Cardinals turn the 1st DP in the 1st), his afternoon would have been just fine.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
can you refresh my memory
about what 1st double play they could have turned? I have the inning ending one of of Soto’s bat of course but the other missed one you speak of is slipping my mind
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
He got a groundball
but it was between the SS and the 3B. It was a tough turn, if not impossible, but if the groundball had been a foot in either direction…he’d have been out of the inning.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrigley Mystique
I don’t care who we brought out of the bullpen, you knew Friday & Saturday’s leads were not going to last. The Cub’s curse certainly doesn’t come into play when they play us, at least not lately. We’ve had our share of wins at Wrigley,(the Pujols game.) I feel its more than homefield advantage. Call it the mystique or mojo of Wrigley. Whatever it is it really seems to be working in the Cubs favor lately. Aramis Ramirez must have incentive clauses in his contract when he plays the Cardinals. I know our bullpen is not perfect, but we could of brought in Bruce Sutter in his prime & the Cards still would of lost those leads!
CliffNotes: "My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player!"
Roy Hobbs: "The Natural"
I agree that whoever we brought in would have succumbed
but that is because our pen sucks, not because of some Wrigley Aura
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
i hate that place
and i’m freaking sick & tired of losing to those flubs.
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
wtf?
how is he better than our other relief options?
and i’m sure someone could come up for a use for a right-handed outfielder on our squad, if we thought really hard about it.
color me unimpressed.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I don't know
He is a ground ball pitcher though, so maybe Duncan thinks he can do something with that and turn him into a stud. Who knows. I was sure looking like Barton wasn’t going anywhere on our team — it will be interesting to see of he ends up leading off for the Braves at any point this year, with their complete lack of good outfield options.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Groundball relief pitchers
scare me. Relief pitchers looking for contact scare me, especially since they often enter the game with runners on.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
esp
groundball relief pitchers coming off a career high in IP who appear to have a dead arm
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Don't worry guys
He’ll be our fourth starter by June
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll be starting
I all but guarantee it.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Good luck, Barton.
Hope he’s on the big team’s roster and he continues the high-socked tradition.
Classic underachiever.
So...
assuming Boyer has to make the 25 man…who’s going to Memphis? Brendan or one of our fireballers?
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
freese, i bet.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
not cool
but I suppose Barton deserves a chance somewhere, our OF is very crowded. I suppose I will have to root for the Braves now (a little)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I will
definitely root for Barton wherever he goes. He’s just one of those guys you pull for.
Classic underachiever.
Definitely
I hope he gets a chance to play in the big leagues, but I will miss Crabman/Rocketman and his free-flying batting helmet.
He always played hard
I wonder if they will continue airing the commercial he is in from spring training.
They will photoshop Blaine Boyer's gameday pic into it
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
And skin color on his arms
I've got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train
I'm going back to New Orleans, to wear that ball and chain
by jd is legend on Apr 20, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Barton
was one of my favorite players. I was really looking forward to watching him play when Memphis came to Des Moines to play the I-Cubs.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I hate that trade
WTF
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Sorry, had to be said.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 20, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
booooooooooooooooooooooooooooo-urns
It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
Hmm
By fangraphs Boyers fastball shouldn’t be tremendously groundball-y. 9.3 inches vertical and -4 horizontal basically.
Not afraid to nitpick
does this mark the end of an era?
or will duncan take a few mph off his fastball
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven't had the time to learn to read the PitchFx stuff
Don’t you want a negative vertical movement to induce groundballs? Doesn’t that equal a sinker?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
the link above
says he throws both a 2-seamer and a 4-seamer, and a curve, but fangraphs doesn’t seem to back this up…
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
I'm taking this trade a lot harder than I thought I would
Somehow, I had conviced myself that they would bat him leadoff vs. lefties. I don’t know how I allowed myself to believe that, but I did.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
because it made sense?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Apr 20, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Totally OT, but
If you have a few minutes to kill and love Mike Shannon, go to the homepage of STL Post and take the Shannonisms quiz. Too fun.
mel
thanks.
I didn’t know how to make the linky little and was too busy atm to look it up.
mel
very funny
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
That's is truly funny
By the last half of the quiz I could pick the answers. It scares me that they make sense
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