Astros '09 Season Preview
by chuckb on Apr 2, 2009 1:18 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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- ’08 record – 86-75
- ‘08 Pythagorean record – 77-84
- Runs per game – 4.42 (11th in NL)
- Runs yielded per game – 4.61 (9th in NL)
- DER -- .699 – T-3rd in the NL (Defense Efficiency Ratio)
- BP projected record – 70-92
- Chone projected record – 72-90
- Welcome: Pudge Rodriguez, Mark Loretta, Jason Michaels, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz
- Don’t let the door hit you…: Ty Wigginton, Brad Ausmus, Randy Wolf
Rotation: There’s little doubt that Roy Oswalt is one of the league’s best pitchers but if Cecil Cooper thinks he’s "the ace of the National League" he’s been breathing too much Houston smog! Oswalt, though a 3.7 WAR pitcher in ’08, has seen his production decline each of the last 5 years. He’d still be the best starter on many staffs in the NL, but he’s hardly the league’s best pitcher. Wandy Rodriguez is a nice guy to have around – clearly one of the NL’s underrated starters. Last year, in just 137.1 innings, he was worth 2.7 wins. But that’s a double-edged sword. He was an above average starter but the Astros got just 137 innings out of him. (a poor man’s Rich Harden?) Only once in his 4 years in the big leagues has he thrown more than 180 innings in a season.
At least the Astros have proven vets Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz, and Brian Moehler to turn to when filling out their rotation. It’s hard to believe that the best of that bunch is probably Moehler. Last year, in 150 innings, Moehler was worth 1.3 WAR. In the last 4 seasons, Hampton and Ortiz have combined for 374.1 IP – an average of 46.2 IP per pitcher per year. Ortiz hasn’t been worth more than Moehler’s 1.3 wins since 2004. Hampton – same thing! GM Ed Wade has spent a lot of time w/ the way-back machine searching for some rotation help.
Bullpen: According to Cecil Cooper, the Astros have "one of the best closers in the game." Jose Valverde’s a nice closer and all – more than a K per inning, and an FIP last year of 3.68 – but 16 current closers in baseball were worth more wins last year than Valverde. Valverde’s flanked by some decent middle relievers – Doug Brocail, Chris Sampson, LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary – but considering the number of innings their likely to pitch, they’re going to be worn out by the All-Star break.
Catcher: For the second year in a row it was supposed to be J.R. Towles. Unfortunately, last year Towles hit .137 w/ a whopping .235 wOBA before being sent to AAA and then put up 4 hits and 1 walk in 22 PAs this spring. The ‘stros responded by turning to … "one of the top catchers in baseball!" Welcome to 2004, ladies and gentlemen! In fairness, Pudge is nearly a league-average catcher (1.9 WAR in 2008) but since when does "league average" equal "one of the top catchers in baseball?" Is Braden Looper one of the best pitchers in baseball? Humberto Quintero will reprise his role as the Astros’ backup backstop.
Infield: There’s no doubt that Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game. He’s also become a very good defensive 1B. In total, he was worth 6.9 WAR in ’08. Only some guy named Pujols was worth more wins at 1B in 2008. That said, Berkman’s also 33 and had a career high WAR last season. He’s not getting any better. The Astros’ 2nd best infielder in 2008 was Ty Wigginton (3 WAR) and they dumped him rather than pay him a slight arbitration bump over the $4.35 M they paid him last year. In fairness, he did play over his head so they decided to replace him w/ Geoff Blum (0.9 WAR in 2008). They would have platooned him w/ Aaron Boone had Boone not had to undergo open-heart surgery but no one would have confused Boone w/ Evan Longoria or David Wright this year (maybe if it was 2001, when Longoria was 15!). Miguel Tejada was worth 3 wins last season as well but this is a guy who won the AL MVP in 2002. Last year, he got basically all of his value in the field (minus 7.5 RAA, .313 wOBA offensively) and earned $13 M. It’s reasonable to think that Khalil Greene will be worth as many wins to the Cards as Tejada will to the Astros at half the price. The 2B is Kaz Matsui – 1.9 WAR in 2008. Their backup is the newly acquired Jeff Keppinger.
Outfield: It’ll be Carlos Lee – who can still hit -- in LF, Michael Bourn again in CF, and Hunter Pence in RF. Lee produced 3.4 wins in 2008 despite being a poor defender and Pence produced 2.6 wins largely b/c he’s a very good defender. While Pence should be entering his prime, Lee turns 33 before the All-Star break. At least they’re only on the hook for 4 more years and $74 M for Lee! (Whew!) Pence is a nice player who, if he hits as he did in ’07 and fields as he did in ’08, could be a 4.5 to 5 win player. Bourn was worth minus 0.1 wins in 2008. He was the definition of replacement-level in 2008 and, despite an OBP of .279 in the leadoff spot, was allowed to take 330 PAs last year in the 1 hole! It’s Corey Patterson-esque! The backup OFs include Darin Erstad and Jason Michaels. They were worth a combined 0.4 wins in 2008. So, those 5 guys were worth a combined 6.3 wins – 1.3 per person – in ’08 despite the fact that 2 of them together were worth 6 wins. It certainly looks like the makings of a 90 win club!
The Astros, for various reasons, are one of baseball’s worst-run organizations. There’s no minor league depth thanks to poor drafts, free agent signings, trading 6 players for Miguel Tejada, and an inability (or unwillingness) to sign draftees. So when their starters break down, or they need too many PAs from stalwarts like Erstad and Michaels, the cupboard is bare. This may not be the year the ‘stros completely fall apart, but they’ve got a lot more bad years than good in their immediate future.
For more info – and a more optimistic perspective – see Lisa Gray’s response to the five questions over at THT.
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Nice post chuck
I have really enjoyed this series. That outfield could be pretty good, but the rotation looks horrendous, especially if Oswalt or Wandy goes down. I would be very surprised if they won over 80 games next year, but if they do, Cecil Cooper will look like a genius for being an idiot.
vivaelbeñsheets
yeah, i think you could patch together some decent offensive performances. the pitching . . .
am i off base in calling wandy rodriguez the oliver perez of the central time zone? kind of an unpredictable leftie.
I dunno
He seems to be pretty good on a consistent basis when he’s healthy, he’s just never healthy for a full season. Perez has great stuff but is wildly mediocre, but not really a significant injury risk.
I would agree that they are both unpredictable, but in different ways.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
2/3 of that outfield could be pretty good
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 2, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I could hit in LF for the Astros
once I figured out how to get the ball high enough to get over the wall. The greatest obstacle would be convincing the pitcher to throw the ball in that direction, though.
Hrm…
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 2, 2009 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i guarantee you i could hit one over that wall
but only if i knew what pitch was coming, and only if YP or Apple Sauce aren’t throwing it
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I really hope they don't get lucky like they did last year
I’m so sick of their late season streaks
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 1:53 AM EDT reply actions
'Stros pattern
For some reason, they always start slow and then have a late season spurt. I don’t quite understand how teams could have such consistent patterns over multiple seasons. I just hope that we don’t fade late season.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
you would think that they would start out more quickly
since they have better weather in the springtime?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Cooper can say what he wants...
…but this team is a mess. They have some very very good pieces…I’d love to have Oswalt, Valverde isn’t too bad, I think Berkman is one of the best in the game, Lee can mash, and Hunter Pence has shown signs of being a pretty good player. However, this may be the most shallow team in baseball. These five pieces are supported by garbage. Michael Bourn is a fourth OF’er at best whose biggest contribution to baseball is the other guy in the Brad Lidge trade. Matsui isn’t particularly good. Pudge is 1000 years old. Yes, 1,000.
I simply don’t see how this team can compete for a spot in the playoffs unless their big three hitters carry them, Oswalt dominates, and they figure out something, anything from that godawful pitching staff.
BTW…Cooper isn’t the sharpest managerial tool in the box. Sticking Bourn at the front of a lineup, which I imagine he’ll do alot b/c Bourn is a fast center fielder who steals bases and stuff, is a recipe for disaster. He apparently thinks that home runs can be rally killers in certain spots. I sincerely hope that he was just shooting sunshine when he said those things about Oswalt and Valverde, considering Oswalt is still behind at least Santana, Lincecum, Webb, a healthy Harden, Haren, Hamels, and probably Peavy too (who has benefited tremendously from pitching in the Grand Canyon), Volquez and Billingsley. As far as closers go, Valverde ranks far behind Lidge, the K-Rod/Putz monster, Rivera, Papelbon, Soria (yes, I rate Joakim Soria up there…look it up!), Nathan…I would consider that the elite list…Is Valverde good? Sure…But he’s not my first pick for that spot.
/end rant
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Apr 2, 2009 2:58 AM EDT reply actions
As much as Cecil sucks as a manager
there is only so much of an effect he can have on players. Just look at Dusty, with all his bitching about clogging up the bases (thanks for reminding me of FJM again), Adam Dunn had his highest walk total ever last year.
vivaelbeñsheets
And then they traded him....
lol
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yeah, I know
I think everyone who pokes around this site is pretty well aware of the limited impact a manager can have on a game compared to other factors.
Cecil Cooper is still clueless and is still fun to shake-your-head at.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Apr 2, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to say
Cecil Cooper is giving Dusty Baker a run for his money, but vivaelpujols already made the connection. Kudos.
“We should win 90 games, without question”
Well, actually, you- what? Without question? Dammit.
“We have a terrific bullpen.”
Not really. Especially after your rotation falls apart in about a week or so.
We have one of the best closers in the game.
I get it. Its an April Fool’s joke.
No?
We’ve got the ace in the National League.
Shit. I haven’t been keeping up with MLBTR. When did they aquire Lincecum, Santana, Peavy, Webb, or one of another five or so pitchers I’d consider better than Oswalt?
We’ve got three of the best offensive players at their position.
Name one.
You can’t, can you?
We’ve got, if not the best, then one of the top catchers in baseball.
Pass the brownies, Cecil. You’ve had waaaaay too much, man.
by adiueordie on Apr 2, 2009 5:43 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Lets break it down further
In the division WPA for ’08:
SP (min 100 IP): Dempster>CC>Volquez>Sheets>Wainwright>Oswalt
RP (min 50 IP): Marmol>Grabow>Sampson(is that who he meant?)>Cordero>Valverde
1B (min 300 PA): Berkman>Pujols (ill give him that one for 08 just based on WPA)
2B (min 300 PA): DeRosa>Weeks>Durham>Matsui
SS (min 300 PA): Hardy>Theriot> Counsell>Keppinger>Izturis>Tejada
3B (min 300 PA): Ramirez>Glaus>Encarnacion>Blum>Mientkiewicz>Wiggington
OF (min 300 PA): Lee>Bay>Braun (he gets this one too)
C (min 300 PA): Doumit>Soto>Molina>Bako>Kendall>Pudge(AL stats of course)
I know WPA is a flawed stat and shouldn’t be used alone in an analysis but I think you can give him an argument at 1B (I know that is hard) and OF but even in the division he can’t claim he has 3 of the top position players, the Ace and best reliever
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
WPA isn't indicative of true talent level
Oswalt is a better pitcher than any of those guys except CC. But Lee and Berkman benefitted from some good “clutch” hitting last year, so I guess it evens out. Cecil is still hopelessly wrong.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I know WPA isn't the best, but it was the easiest
I would have preferred WAR but WPA was easy to find on fangraphs.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
DAMNIT!!!!
someone better get me some freaking brownies
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
About those 90 wins...
Does he realize that Spring Training losses don’t count as regular season wins? Cause if you add those 18, then you’re looking at something closer to 90 wins…otherwise, I’m going with about 70 for the team down south with the funky ballpark.
This is why it was so annoying
any time some writer referred to us as a “fourth place team” in 2008. One of those very frustrating and misleading but technically correct facts. In truth the Astros played 9 wins over their pythag and allowed more runs than they scored. And then they went and got worse in the offseason. That said, I’ve always really liked Lance Berkman. I’m sure the Crawfish boost helps him somewhat but still, he’s a pretty kick ass first baseman.
"technically correct facts"
LOL. It’s annoying as hell when reality does not play out pythagoreanically.
(Not knocking pythag or even your point. It demonstrates how much the Stros overachieved last year.)
by Youneverknow on Apr 2, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
To say that the 2008 Houston Astros were better at baseball than the 2008 Cardinals is something i’m not willing to concede. But they did end up with one fewer loss than we did. ARGH.
But
they never made up that hurricane canceled game with the Cubs either. If they would have lost that game…
Exactly again
Even the fact that their record was better was a technicality since they had one of those rare 161-game seasons.
Not that rare
If a game between two teams that aren’t in contention gets postponed, and they don’t have a mutual off date, they never play it. Seems like there’s a couple of teams each year that don’t play all 162 games…
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
Hm. I guess you're right, maybe "rare" is the wrong word.
I forgot how common it is for season schedules to get messed up.
How about “the rare 161-game season that ends up being the deciding factor in beating out another team for 3rd place”. That surely doesn’t happen too often!
for instance,
it sounds like cards’ opening day might be rained out, and its gonna be tough to make it up unless they schedule a double header.
however, i have tickets for the seventh, which could end up being the actual opener now, so that’s cool.
Opening Day weather
looks nasty, 36 with a few snow showers. Tuesday night could be a bit chilly. Either way enjoy the game.
I went to Opening Day last year and it got rained out
Which was too bad, because we lit up Jeff Francis early on and then lost the make-up game. :(
yeah we did
it sucked big time. (that’s all the thought I can muster tonight…going to sleep shortly.)
I like
Berkman, too. I think it’s partially attributable to the way he’s always very complimentary of how good Pujols is. He’s stating the obvious, but he never hesitates to call Albert the best player he’s seen. He seems like a good guy, especially considering that he’d be in the conversation regarding the best pure hitters.
On the opposite side of the issue, I used to hate how Barry Bonds would refuse to acknowledge that Albert was a great player. Early in Albert’s career, I distinctly remember Barry saying that he didn’t consider Albert a great player because he didn’t have a position – this coming from a guy who plays LF – where you typically would hide your worst OFer.
Barry really said that?
weird considering Albert’s been one of his biggest friends.
i can’t stand berkman. not one bit. especially after his recent comments that the 06 Cards didn’t have anyone better than the 09 stros. i’m sorry, i just can’t let that go.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Well is was certainly justifiable
The 06 Cards had a lot of extenuating circumstances (like a ridiculous amount of injuries and down seasons from everyone), but they really weren’t that good of a team when the season ended. The Astros actually finished with a higher Pythag than the Cards did in 06.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
pythag
Its a good thing that doesnt count for a real record then.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Apr 2, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm...
First of all the point I was making was that the Astros played better than the Cards did in 06. The fact that the Pythag records didn’t match up is meaningless. They are tons of things that can affect a teams record besides how well they actually played:
-strength of schedule
-“clutchness”
-run distribution
-just plain luck
In fact the standard error is around 6 games, meaning that you can expect that any given team will win +/- 6 games more/less than their Pythag record based on uncontrollable events.
Also, the Astros last year had a better record than the Cards did in 06, 86 wins -83 wins, so the point is moot.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
it's him thinking he's better than Albert that's really funny
take him outta that band box joke of a park, put him in a real park & i think he would be not quite as good as everyone thinks he is.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Well Berkman definitely isn't better than Albert
About, the ballparks though, I figured that he might have gotten lucky on some of those homers to left. So I went to Berkmans homerun log to see if he actually got lucky. You can see the results for yourself, he only had one lucky home run at home last year, and a lot more that would be no doubters anywhere.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Berkman is very very good
no doubt about it… just not quite on the next level status of APu
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Has Berkman ever said that he's better than Albert?
Because if he hasn’t what’s the point?
In general I try to only hate players if they really deserve it. Being really good and playing for a rival isn’t enough for me to hate somebody. Also I love the nickname Fat Elvis.
no, he didn't say that
but his manager seems to think so
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the 'stros biggest problem
is that their bench is AWFUL. They really have no depth, and their pen looks pretty mediocre, Valverde aside. The big pieces they have are pretty good but they’re about the shallowest team in the NL in terms of their “fill-in” guys.
I tend to agree they’ll finish 09 with a losing record.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
April 2 gameday link
Last one in sunny FLA
On another note, it looks like LaDunc caught up on their VEB reading with today’s lead in the P-D about KMac. Gotta love (or maybe not) Duncan’s old school quotability.
“Maybe he’s trying to do too much or something, I don’t know. Whatever it is, he’d better try to get it changed.”
Equivalent:
“He could be trying to do too much, or maybe he’s doing to little. It could also be a third thing. But whatever it is, if in fact there is an "it”,…well by gum, he better fix it."
by arch support on Apr 2, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is gameday going to be in full season form today?
It is their last chance to see if the bugs are worked out for the season.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 2, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
i guess not
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 2, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
They will be awful this year
But I bet that they are going to kill the Cardinals all season. Jason Michaels alone hung 3-4 looses single handedly on the cards last year (Including TESS) while hitting an eye popping .232. Seems like the Astros are always full of guys like that—players that pretty much stink, but kill the Cardinals for whatever reason.
by cloistermaximus on Apr 2, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
probably because we are an abstract random team
and play at a level consistent with our opposition would be my guess.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 2, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
sadly we've done that more than last year
it drives me nuts.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
yeah
that’s true… I hope they leave that trend in the dust… but then again, it’s kind of how I operate too
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
From Houston -
Good summary, chuckb.
The media kills Bourn here and everyone wonders why he hits leadoff (you know, because he can’t hit). He’s a defensive replacement/pinch runner, at best. Wade sucks.
I don’t think Cooper can be killed for saying (overly) good things about Oswalt, Berkman, Valverde, Lee, Pudge, etc. They’re good players and he’s their manager. Of course he’s going to say they’re the “best.”
Houston is a terrible baseball town (actually it’s a great college and high school baseball town – tons of talent here – it just doesn’t translate to the community being invested in the ‘Stros). Go check out the morgue over at “Crawfish Boxes.” It’s dead over there.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 2, 2009 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
Good post, Mcgee's Twin
…It’s great to get an Astros fan’s perspective.
by santiagofish on Apr 2, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he's an Astros fan
Just lives in Houston
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 2, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
No offense taken (of course)
I follow the Astros in a “second-favorite team/adopted hometown” sort of way. For example, I hope the ‘Stros get the wild-card (and the Cards win the pennant). There’s not a chance in hell of the Astros getting the wildcard, but it’s more fun to go to the games and be in the city when the team is doing well.
Again though, Wade sucks. Old, expensive, declining veterans plus few talented, cheap, youngsters (and no farm system) is no way to construct a team.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 2, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Minute Maid
Youre right; when the team is doing well, the Juice Box is a good place to catch a game. Ive been here in Houston for the last five years and have made many, many trips down to the park. Ive been to games when the ’Stros are awful in the first go of the season; the seats arent hard to come by. Then, of course, they do their late season flourish and the place is packed out.
fair weather fans abound.
Now though, Im transferring out to Savannah, Ga for the next 4 yrs and I wont be able to see the Cards but once, maybe twice a year :( Its been a good run
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Apr 2, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
where have you been dude?
good to see your still around. don’t be a stranger man.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
ive been a lurker
Ive been pretty busy since last season with hurricanes and the like. I’ll probably be on here til around mid June, at that time I’ll transfer out of Houston. Im not sure how long itll be til I get set up again at my new house. Its good to be back and see some familiar fa… names.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on Apr 2, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
well it's good to see you back dude
good luck with the move & the transfer & everything that goes with it.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
heh
why would an astros fan be called willie mcgee’s twin? heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
nope
lots of fantasy though. me and the bro will be duking it out at the ballgame though, he’s a scrubs fan!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel your pain
my brother is a Cub fan too.
he is such a good guy
well, except for that one character flaw
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
he's funny
he won’t sit out in the bleachers with the other cubs fans, he thinks they are uncouth.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that sort of like saying....
“sure he’s addicted to coke, but his heart’s in the right place”?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
yeah
kinda like that… although all I can think of right now is Daryl Strawberry, and I don’t think his heart was in the right place.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
my bro in law is a transplanted flubs fan
he never liked baseball till he moved to chi town for college. to this day i still tell him he doesn’t like baseball. he just like to get drunk & party. there’s a big difference.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
yeah
my bro actually is pretty into baseball, although he would be lost in here, like the average person would
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
hell i'm lost a lot around here still
people here are crazy smart. i mean like wow.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I am used to being one of the smartest people in the room
but on here, it’s pretty much the opposite
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 4, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember when we had a post or 2 here
about acquiring Bourn? Man you can never tell about a player’s future performance.
there's a difference between
wanting to acquire the guy and giving up one of the best closers in baseball for the guy and then playing him every day…for 2 years, most of which you allow him to put up a .279 OBP in the leadoff spot.
.279 OBP
I have trouble believing he’s the same Michael Bourn who played at the U of Houston. Couldn’t get that guy out. Glad I don’t scout college players for a living. I thought Jose Cruz, Jr. was a can’t miss star, too, when he was at Rice.
Yet another nice post, chuckb. I like the point-by-point refutation approach applied to this kind of smoke blowing.
"That annoys the you-know-what out of me." - Bud Selig
Does this mean we should be suspicious
of kids who are awesome hitters in their youth? IOW, kids who can hit anything and thus have little incentive to develop any sense of the strike zone?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 2, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm going to think about that
but I’m not sure it applies in Bourn’s case. Although he always struck out a lot, he walked about the same amount until he reached AA. Then his strike outs about doubled. Another defining characteristic of Bourn is his complete lack of power. That was true in the low minors when he still carried excellent OBP and even at UofH where his XBH were almost all of the leg variety.
"That annoys the you-know-what out of me." - Bud Selig
I've thought about it
What we may want to be suspicious of are high average hitters with absolutely no power because their swings may not allow them to develop the ability to hit pitchers w/ really good stuff. Even when they succeed, you’ve got Matty Alou.
"That annoys the you-know-what out of me." - Bud Selig
When it was the rumored char'd remains of Anthony Reyes
for Bourn, it was a smart deal. Bourn would have been nice speed coming off the bench. Then, of course, we got Brian Barton for free and gave away Anthony Reyes for free.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 2, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Bourn still has talent
With his defense, he only needs to be a just plain ol’ crappy hitter to be a decent player.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
if by decent you mean replacement level
then i guess so. he was about -1 WAR last year, so he was actually worse than replacement level. I don’t know how you quantify "decent’, but I wouldn’t think that would be it.
Last year he also hit worse than a lot of pitchers
by “plain ol’ crappy hitter”, I meant like Adam Kennedy last year ~.310 wOBA (league average is .330). If he is able to do that (CHONE thinks that he will), and play +5 defense in center (career UZR/150 is 4.4) than he would be a little worse than league average player.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
What the hell are you talking about?
“a little worse than league average player” does not equal “replacement level”. Obviously he sucked last year, but his offense was also comically bad, way worse than he has ever bean. His true talent level is that of a league average player.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
i disagree
“way worse than he has ever been”…. in AA? He barely had 100 PA’s in the major leagues before he played a full season in Houston last year… and he sucked. Michael Bourn is not a good player, and I definitely don’t think he’s league average. I’m not sure why you think that is his true talent, since he hasn’t shown that.
Here’s a quote from Baseball Prospectus: “There’s no way [Bourn] should be a starting center fielder in the majors.” He’s fast, but he doesn’t get on base. I’m sure his speed translates well to defense, but what good is he? I would say he’s hardly a “league average player” as you claim.
Okay
For him to be a league average player with his defense, he would have to have roughly a .310 wOBA. Do you know how bad that is? That is basically the equivalent of a .250/.320/.350 line. Bourn in his minor league career has batted .284/.378 /.392. In his last season at AAA he batted .283/.368/.428. In in the majors in 2007, he batted .277/.348/.378 in over 100 PA.
So basically, you are basing you claim that he ins’t a good player on 514 plate appearances last year. This is a guy who has a solid track record of decent offensive production in the minors and in the majors before this year. However, for him to be a league average player, he doesn’t even have to match his offensive production in the minors, he simply has to be just below average.
vivaelbeñsheets
the fact is
that minor league averages don’t necessarily translate to major league averages. Just b/c he hit ~.280/.360/.400 in 2006 between AA and AAA doesn’t make him do that in the major leagues.
You’re basing your claim on minor league at-bats and his 2007 season of 133 plate appearances in the majors, but I’m wrong b/c I’m basing my claim on a full major league season, which happens to be his most recent season?
If Bourn somehow learns to take a walk or hit lefties (.182/.253/.238 in his major league career thus far), then I might change my mind. But as of right now, he’s a lifetime .237 hitter who is pretty good at defense. That doesn’t come to “decent” in my mind. And if he were starting for the Cardinals, I think we’d all be pretty pissed.
NO
My claim isn’t that he will hit .280/.360/.400 in the minors. That would be outstanding for a player with his defensive ability. I am saying that he only has to bat .250/.320/.350 to be a league average player. Based on his minor league numbers and his 2007 season, I’m pretty sure that he is capable of that and so is CHONE.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 4, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions
"Do you know how bad that is?"
pretty bad. but still better than any projection system thinks bourne will be, next year ;) Though to be fair, CHONE thinks he’ll get close (.309 wOBA).
Even conceding that, I’m still not sure how a .310 wOBA turns a replacement-level defensive player (IE, league average defense in CF) into a league-average player. Unless his defense gets a lot better, wouldn’t he have to be closer to .330?
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
He is above average on defense
His career UZR/150 is just under 5 and he is at the age where defense peaks. I would feel comfortable calling him +5 there. And is there really a difference between .309 and .310? Lets do some math:
Offense: ((.309-.330)/1.2)*600 = -10.5 runs on offense
Defense: 5 UZR + 2.5 POS = +7.5 runs on defense
So offense + defense = -4 runs + 20.25 runs replacement adjustment = 1.6 WAR.
So he isn’t quite league average, but he is pretty close. With some more improvement offensively and regression to the mean, he could easily be a league average player over the next couple of seasons.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 4, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think I'd say "comfortable"
It’s probably easily within the range of the measurement error to say he might be a +5 defensive guy, but he hasn’t been that good yet. Given another full season, in which he outperforms what he’s done so far, and you might be able to say that.
Anyway, he’d have to outperform his career minor league MLE by 90 points of OPS (or his MLB career performance by ~60) to be half a win below league average, even if you make all of the assumptions you’re making here. I think you are heavily overweighing the “true talent” that 100 PA’s in 2007 demonstrated, versus the 500+ he got in 2008.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Don't believe me
Trust the projection systems. CHONE is generally the best one for projecting young players and it thinks that Bourn will have a .309 wOBA next year. Also, his career UZR/150 is 4.4 and he is at the age where centerfield defense peaks , I would say that he is basically to a +5 run defender.
vivaelbeñsheets
do you have a link to research that shows
that “CHONE is generally the best one for projecting young players”?
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
also
I wouldn’t consider a career MLE of .225/.286/.297 (at ages that are old for the leagues he played in) a “solid track record of decent offensive production in the minors”. Though eyeballing it, his BB rate in the minors looks a lot better than in the majors, so there may be hope for improvement.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
wow
that would have been a bad idea
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
nybirdfan wins the thread
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
I was just about to say that
He somehow pegged that Lidge wouldn’t blow a save in Philly. In a strange kind of way. That is was you were referring to, correct?
by Pujols Is A God on Apr 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll stand by it being a good trade at the time
Lidge wasn’t going to do anything in Houston anymore and Bourn was an interesting player. The fact that they’ve brutally mishandled a flameout player shouldn’t count against me!
Not afraid to nitpick
hell i still want Lidge now
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Jason Michaels
Is it just me or does it seem like the vast majority of Jason Michaels’ ~.2 WAR came against the Cardinals last year? That guy freaking killed us.
And just to make sure I wasn’t misremebering, I checked his splits at BR.
.350 /.409/ .700/1.109 – 2 HR – 11 RBI in 20 ABs.
I think he owes me a remote control or two from last season.
The thought that I have is that the season is over. And that everybody in the game; a fan, a coach, a player, a manager, front office, scouts...surrender. They say, "that's enough," especially after a game like this. But then Christmas comes, New Years, contracts are signed, trades are made, free agents are signed; and then baseball, like the rose beneath the April snow will force it's way to the front again. And we'll have the fever once more.
-Jack
it's an amazing line
yet he was still just about 3 runs above replacement in those 20 PA’s.
Of course, if he maintained that line all year, over 650 PA’s he’d be a ~9 WAR player offensively against us ;)
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
never forget TESS
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I'm wondering.....
sorry I’m lazy, I could look this up, but our record within our division last year wasn’t that good, correct? we need to improve that this season, hopefully we can handle the astros like I know we can, they are not all that cecil is cracked up to be
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions
yup
36-41 overall, 6-9 vs cubs, 5-10 vs MIL, 8-7 vs HOU, 7-10 vs PIT,10-5 vs CIN.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
that's the team we really need to turn the tide on
they kicked our collective butt last year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
absofreakinglutley
we have no biz having a losing record to the brew crew, pirates, & stros. we should at worst have a .500 record vs the flubs & reds. at worst.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
that's what frustrated me the most I think
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I remember that we were 4 games out
and had just won a come-from-behind game against the Brewers. We went into Pittsburg and got swept by the Pirates. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew as playing crappy. If we had swept Pittsburg (which we definitely should have), we could have made the playoffs.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I am thankful for that
my condolences
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
lineup
schu 4
raz 9
mang 3
ank 8
k-bot 6
yadi 2
freese 5
tadillion 1
the millionaire 7
it looks pretty close to the opening day lineup aside from thurston in left.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
i think we broke josh johnson.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
i think we broke josh johnson.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
rasmus !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
colby jacks cheese
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 2, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Home Run
YEEEEE-hah
Get that cheese out my kitchen.
by colbyjackscheese on Apr 2, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought there would be more reaction to a rasmus dinger.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 2, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
i know it seems strangly quiet in here today.
Get that cheese out my kitchen.
by colbyjackscheese on Apr 2, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Well for one thing
I didn’t have gameday up. Link here if anybody wants it. I had to haxxor it myself since liam’s fanshot got bumped down. It will open in a new window.
Well it looks like schu has the turn down.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
...joking, right?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
nah
momentary lapse, I had insomnia last night, I am having a mystical experience from not sleeping, yay! the train is going off the rails. maybe I will just try to not post much today, and limit it to a few gems
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
and to add to the irony
neither of the above links are working for me
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
yer new sig-link
adding to the legend, G. BTW, doing my damnedest to make it home for VEB day at the park, hope many others are as well. Someone needs to design us a t-shirt. How about you?
"That annoys the you-know-what out of me." - Bud Selig
I would be honored
I will design that!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of...
We should do a new VeB shirt for 2009. My old red one is getting a bit worn at this point.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
i thought the same thing
if we were all running around in viva el birdos shirts, that would be… weird.
...and easy
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
the dork patrol
I am smiling at the thought of it
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
where can one get a VEB shirts?
i remember them, but i never got one.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
well, I think it's in the works
but I would assume you would get it at the VEB day? please, don’t let me organize it, I just want to design the shirt!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
there's still a link to the VEB store on the main page
i realized this right after i it the post button. sometimes me no brain work well.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
so my day is made
I am going to Cards vs. Cubs on the 18th!!!!!! nice seats too
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions
Are you sure?
In your sleep-deprived state you might have imagined it. Did a hookah-smoking leprechaun sell you the tickets for three goats and a bar of gold pressed latinum?
well
if my brother is said mythical creature, then you are right!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I am one complex dude
at least that’s what they tell me
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
and i'm the one who's seeing a shrink :-)
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
sometimes the shrink will just confuse you even further
especially if it’s Dr. Jacoby
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
well
ya got me, I have not. I’ve seen basically the first half of all the episodes, so I am at some point in season 2. I always thought Dr. Jacoby was a pretty cool character, I really need to get back to watching that
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I enjoyed it tremendously
it does sag a bit in the middle of the 2nd season…but it gets weirder and more intense near the end…and the last episode is completely insane…but also brilliant IMO.
yes
the episodes lynch directed are all brilliant, especially the pilot and the finale. and the prequel film is amazing, but makes absolutely no sense if haven’t seen the entire series.
Lost?
never really wanted to watch that, did you watch new BSG series?
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Lost is epic
of course, you have to start at the beginning and never skip an episode.
you’re probably the tenth person in the last six months to recommend battlestar galactica (assuming that’s why you mentioned it). i’m gonna check it out soon.
that one is also very very epic
also really philosophical, etc
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
OT
but talking about EPIC, the Bears actually have what looks like a real QB. WTF?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
I know
i have been containing my enthusiasm about that, and they got orlando pace. the hibernating bear must have been having a weird dream yesterday, lots of action! I have never seen them with a good QB
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah
Chicago is where real QBs go to die. Besides, Cutler’s always been overrated. Denver made out like bandits in that trade.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
There are times I think MY brother is a mystical
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I've got you beat.
I’m seeing them play the Nationals on the 30th. =P Beat that!
by Pujols Is A God on Apr 2, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Another RBI for Razz
Just a sac fly, but it gets the job done.
Is our streaky young player heating up just in time for the start of the season?
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
brian barden comes into the game
and Wellemeyer promptly gives up a home run, and then another run.
Coincidence? I think not.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Coincidence? TLR thinks not.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
one of the cooler names in sports too
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Apparently
Joe Strauss is reporting that Glaus is unlikely to return b4 the All-Star break. Are others saying this, as well?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Apr 2, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
Never mind.
Just now saw the fanpost from yesterday. Duh.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Apr 2, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
The irony of Glaus having shoulder issues
is killing me.
the hot corner may be cursed
just what the Birds need uh?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
At least we have some young guys with upside
Freese might turn out to be a pretty good player this year.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know where this opinion is coming from
but I just think that Freese is going to be very little of a downgrade from Glaus
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Well Glaus was a 5 WAR player last year
I doubt that Freese could be close to that in his first season of play. Then again, his numbers in the minors have been very impressive and he plays excellent defense. He ceiling is probably something close to that of Adrian Beltre, who isn’t as good as Glaus, but is still a very good player.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
well
if he’s even 2.5, that should be pretty good… I still really am not into that stat for various reasons, mainly ignorance, heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
glaus had also never been a 5-win player before
so I wouldn’t bet on him doing it again in 2009, had he been healthy.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
From Gameday
Bottom of the 5th
Defensive Substitution: Brian Barden replaces second baseman Skip Schumaker, batting 1st, playing third base.
Defensive switch from left field to right for Colby Rasmus.
Defensive Substitution: Joe Mather replaces first baseman Albert Pujols, batting 3rd, playing left field.
Defensive switch from third base to first base for David Freese.
Defensive switch from right field to second base for Joe Thurston.
I think Tony just had an orgasmic experience.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
I can hear the wheels turning all the way up here
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i think it's sweet folks in their 60's can still do that
it gives me hope
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
60's are the new 50's
when we get there, it will be even better I hope
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
if i get to my 60's, it will be a miracle
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I hear ya there
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
In the "I know ST stats are meaningless, but WTF?" category...
Ryan Franklin has a 4.76 ERA?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
For a reliever?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
well
he really is worse than that!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think so.
If you look at his career number in more of a setup role (which is where he should be, instead of closing games) he has been pretty decent.
ok
I was more joking than anything… still, he sure likes to make things interesting, there’s no doubt about that! he’s no izzy though
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
That is what I am expecting from him this year
He got extraordinarily lucky last year, despite deteriorating skills.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
so uh
is motte gonna close this thing out or what?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
i would have went with on whom random
but i’ve always been one to push the envelope
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I am not even sure what that means
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I do and have a tax deduction to prove it.
They tell me that can happen if you push the envelope so that it breaks.
What progress has Motte made on an other-than-fastball pitch?
"That annoys the you-know-what out of me." - Bud Selig
his slider has been looking better in ST
at least, that’s what I heard a couple of weeks ago before the madness set in
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
it would be nice if gameday would update
i feel so left out, knowing something happened but not knowing what.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
that is what is happening to me too
it didn’t work, then it fooled me, cuz it loaded for a second, then stalled.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn
Everyone getting in on the act on Sanches
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
here's what i've got
jones leadoff double
freese infield single to ss
duncan PH, fly to right, DJ advances
Thurston sac fly, DJ scores, freese advances
mather singles, freese scores
rasmus doubles, mather scores
barden doubles, rasmus scores
gameday stuck again after the barden AB
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
ah, that he did.
on a pitch about 3 feet over his head, according to gameday.
Motte had a bit of a rough bottom of the ninth , only k’ing two ;)
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Too early for a man crush?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
if I recall
when I saw him play for the QC he did well
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
for a guy with a high 90's fastball?
Never too early. Saw him last year in OKC with Memphis…..I’ll miss seeing him this year.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 2, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Logical thinking
tells me that we are all getting way too excited over Motte, but then I look at his K numbers/ratios and logic goes out the door and makes me want to grow my hair out and wear goggles to the cubs/cards game on may 19th
What if that was the "in" style in STL this summer
Much like the Spiezio imperial in the ’06 playoffs
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
Motte is Soooo Boring
Every day, he comes in and ends it with a strike out. What’s with this guy?
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
and he earns the league minimum
dewallet is such a cheap bum.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
He should have opened de wallet
and then we’d have that one guy with the 9.53 ERA in Anaheim’s bullpen instead.
But at least I knew his name when it was in the paper the first time!
I'm so glad
Fuentes didn’t happen. I never wanted it. The draft pick was the main reason, but I also believed we had pitchers that were just as good. Time will tell, but overall I’m glad the team saved the money.
i couldn't agree more
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
It would have been a decent move
but it would have probably would have forced Motte or McClellan out the pen, cause we all know how much TLR like puppy kicker and Franklin.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That is weird
LaRussa just said today he was taking 26 guys to the game tomorrow
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
also, this leaves ludwick as the only righty outfielder
unless you count brendan ryan as an outfielder… ugh.
I think he means "righty" for batting
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 2, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Me Too
I am really curious to see the lineup vs Lefties when we have such a lefty dependent MIF and OF
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus, the reverse splits by Ludwick
How we play against Lefties could really determine this season.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess OF vs LHP
Rasmus, Ankiel, Ludwick in the outfield with Albert, Ryan, Greene, Freese for the infield
That would leave a bench of Duncan, Schu, Thurston and Barden (and Larue but Tony won’t use him to ph)
perhaps "when he plays against them" should be added
Hopefully Schu doesn’t play much (at all) against lefties; especially when we have both Ryan and Barden available.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 2, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Looks like all those guys stay
I thought Mather would stay over one of those guys – guess not.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it probably came down too Barden vs Mather
Barden has less talent but had an excellent spring while Mather has more talent but had a mediocre spring
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow
Thurston, Freese, and Barden all beat out Mather. Would’t have predicted that three weeks about, but can’t say I disagree, either. After today, I’m starting to feel better about Rasmus too.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
+1
Mather hasn’t really done anything to get me excited to see him in the Lineup. I guess i missed the mather fan bus last year, because I didn’t realize he was that good until everyone was drooling over him all off season
He was destroying AAA
all season before finally getting his call-up. Adjusted quickly and Joey Bombs became beloved.
And the dude is huge.
He was the anti-Chris Duncan
he could play defense.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 2, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
he doesn't swing a bad wiffle ball stick either
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Rasmus still K's too much for my taste
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
so does sizemore
but the .368 obp works.
colby has had many k’s looking this spring, so the plate discipline is working.
second in BB behind albert. 12/25 bb/k, for a rook, not so bad. as long as he’s swinging at strikes……
Amen. I do love the
way the kid can take a walk. Consider that this year in Charm City I’ll be watching 2 other “toolsy” guys, Felix Pie and Adam Jones, who have career walk percentages of 7.3 and 4.4, respectively. I’ll take the “unproven” Rasmus every day of the week.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 2, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate that arguement against players
Seriously, K’s have almost no negative value against players. In fact people who K more are usually guys who have high walk rates and hit a lot of homers.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not really disagreeing
but is there a correlation to BABIP and K’s? it seems to me that if you don’t strike out as much, you are at least putting the ball into play and perhaps inducing errors
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll look into that
it should be pretty easy to check.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually
I’d venture to say there’s a correlation between Ks and a high BABIP. Instead of dopey “protect” swings you grip it and rip it.
PS you also induce double plays.
Not afraid to nitpick
ah
I didn’t think of that part… the double play part. protect swings will wear down the pitcher at least
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Negative
They all made the team
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't tell
but from the Hummel piece it looks like Mather is playing with the major league club until Opening Day. He was told that “he was being sent to the minors at the start of the season even though he will travel on the team plane to Memphis for two exhibition games this weekend.”
by sra on Apr 2, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
YES!!!!
I was afraid we wouldn’t be taking 6 middle infielders north with us this year. Praise Allah!!!! Versatility for all!!!!!!
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 2, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
my idle speculation:
while i wouldn’t have made this choice, i wonder if the idea is to give thurston/barden/ryan an extended spring training of sorts with the ML club. since barden and thurston have little big league time under their belts, TLR could be saying, by the time mather gets out of his funk, maybe one of these three will have shown that they can (or cannot) hack it at the ML level, and make the decision easier.
What!?
How am I suppose to sustain my man crush on Mr. Bombs if I can’t watch him play?
Oh well…I guess it just didn’t make sense to have a RH-power bat who can platoon in the OF and back-up 3B on the roster. Three MIF’s off the bench w/ very little power is much more practical.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Apr 2, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Motte is Soooo Boring
Always the same thing: a strike out to end it. What’s with this guy?
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
The Nerve of Him
Can’t he walk a few maybe load the bases to get some excitement
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 2, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
I can’t imagine how much it must have sucked to be a Phillies fan last year. I mean, not a single blown save from their closer, where’s the excitement?
Lidge made it exciting,
even if he didn’t blow any saves.
Hopefully
this year we’ll get a taste of what it’s like to have a closer that dominates people. We definitely have one that throws hard, which is fun.
I really, really wish
Henry Blanco wouldn’t have gotten thrown out at the plate so he would’ve blown a save.
Not afraid to nitpick
Did you guys know the guy who invented UZR used to work for the Cardinals?
Here is a good article by SI about defense
Stat Whore
Yup
And he wrote The Book. Fortunately the Cardinals let him go, so now UZR is no longer exclusive property of the Cardinals and is available at Fangraphs.
still
how cool is that? just another reason to be a cardinal fan
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Why the fuck did we let Mitchell Litchman go
Maybe he could have told Tony that our defense is going to suck next year.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 2, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
09
it actually would be decent if Rasmus plays center, but our MIF looks very shaky.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Greene plays good defense
Cobbler is the question, but I think he’ll be all right. plus he’ll get a lot of defensive substitutions from our army of mifs
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
career?
‘08? how about UZR/150? it’s all so confusing. he is rumored to have good D
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
UZR/150
Career: -2
2008: -9.4
2007: -2.7
2006: +7.1
TZ like him better with scores of -6, +9 and +6 over the last 3 years. When two systems disagree that much, it is hard to get a good reading of how good a player is. Averaging them out, he is around an average defender.
vivaelbeñsheets
Starters Against Lefties
I am surprised that Mather does not make this team because there seems to be no outfield platoon options vs left handed starters. I suppose this means that Ankiel, Duncan or Rasmus will be starting against lefties which seems to be contrary to what one would expect from Tony. By my calculation Ryan is the only other option and I though he would be starting at 2B and leading off for Schumaker. What am I missing here?
obviously having 3 backup MIFers is more of a priority.
Which I don’t get. Greene is an everyday player, Mather could back up Freese. Do we really want Joe Thurston or Barden off the bence instead of Mather.
Apparently that is worth only having 1 RH OFer.
could be
mathers .682 ops vs lhp’s from 08? he didn’t exactly make a case to be dunc’s platoon partner, then throw in a slumping ST…
could be
though I would hope that 75 PA’s isn’t enough to convince anyone he’s not a good hitter against LHP.
Mather has traditionally smacked lefties around in the minors…
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/1/4/709102/hot-stove-catch-all-thread#11230422
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Mather Platooning
in the outfield seemed like a no-brainer but I can see a couple of positives with this move. I think it is now obvious that the 4 outfielders will be rotated to give all of them adequate playing time and we will hopefully see less of the imaginative line-ups. I am all for giving the left-handed outfielders more of an opportunity to hit against lefties.
If they don't
I’m sure we’ll see Mather or Barton sometime this year.
neither ankiel nor rasmus (nor thurston) are awful against lefties. schu and dunc have the
biggest lh v. lh splits. keep them out of the lineup v. lefties, we’ll be ok.
I really don't understand why Skip is so terrible against lefties looking at way he hits.
He’s basically a slap hitter with a little bit of pop.
Can someone with a better understanding of this help me out here.
Is did really bad last year
as to set himself up to blow everyone away this year. Not only is he gritty, he’s cunning too
I will be ok with this
if they keep Barden on the team
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 2, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Is anyone else experiencing problems loading this page?
Been having slow loads all day here.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Apr 2, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions
no poop jokes?
dick jokes are ok, but poop jokes are going too far?
(and I apparently was having a rough day typing. must not have enought fiber)
heh
got it
4B - beer baseball bands blog
cmon and let the games begin
confusion will be my epitaph
I think I have more sigs than gdm now, hah!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 3, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
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