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What a mess!

I know that many here aren’t big fans of WPA but sometimes it can tell us a lot. Yesterday, for example, Rick Ankiel’s WPA was minus .342. Is there any doubt that his 0-6 w/ 2 K day played a big part in the Cards’ loss? For the year his WPA is minus 0.80 – easily worst on the team. Does that surprise anyone? His OBP is .273, his SLG is .231 and his wOBA is .241. So what’s the problem?

First of all, it’s pretty clear his pitch recognition is horrendous right now. His O-swing% -- the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which he’s swinging – is 35.9%, behind only free-swinger Brendan Ryan on the team. Just for reference, Albert’s only swinging at 20.5% of the pitches he sees outside the zone and Colby Rasmus has only swung at 11.3% of the pitches he’s seen outside the zone. Curiously, he’s only swinging at 64.5% of the pitches inside the strike zone (Albert’s at 73.6%). In fact, only Khalil Greene and Skip Schumaker, among regular players, are swinging at a lower % of the pitches they see inside the zone. When he swings, he misses…a lot. No one on the team swings and misses more than Ankiel. His contact % is just 75%. Even the pitchers who have swung the bat this year have made more contact than Ankiel – except Lohse. He’s particularly awful when swinging at pitches in the zone – worst on the team among regulars.

His walk rate – 9.3% -- isn’t awful but his K rate is – 25.6%. Though some here don’t agree that there’s value in taking pitches and working counts, and despite the fact that he’s seeing roughly the same number of pitches per PA (3.77 this year to 3.83 last year), he’s swinging at balls and taking strikes. That’s horrendous pitch recognition. Additionally, when he swings, he’s missing. What are pitchers throwing him? Among Cardinal regulars, only Skip has seen more fastballs than Ankiel. A full 55.9% of the pitches he’s seeing are fastballs. Molina is close – 55.0% but neither Skip nor Yadi have any power to speak of. They’re both, basically, singles hitters. Clearly pitchers right now aren’t afraid of Ankiel’s power. They’re just going to rear back and fire the fastball by him. Yesterday’s futility demonstrated this as well as any game has.

In the first, Ankiel struck out on 7 pitches when he swung and missed at a 92 mph fastball. He saw 5 fastballs and 2 changeups in this PA. In the third, Dempster threw Ankiel 4 consecutive fastballs and Ankiel swung and missed at the 4th. 2 PAs – 2 Ks. In the fifth, he got ahead in the count when Dempster started him off w/ 3 straight changeups. Then he saw 4 straight fastballs – a swinging strike, a ball, a foul, and then he popped up to 2nd. Against Marmol, w/ 2 on and no one out in the 7th, he saw 2 fastballs, a slider, and then popped out to the catcher on a third fastball. 4 ABs – 2 Ks and 2 popouts, all the outs made on fastballs. Ankiel led off the 9th against Kevin Gregg and saw fastball, fastball, fastball before his 3rd popup of the day landed in Ramirez’s mitt. In the 11th, Angel Guzman threw him 5 straight fastballs (and why shouldn’t he? He was in the mid-90s.) and Ankiel grounded the fifth into Miles’ glove at 2nd. In all, Ankiel saw 29 pitches in his 6 PAs yesterday – a pretty good number, btw. Out of those 29 pitches, 23 of them were fastballs, w/ 5 changeups and 1 slider. He made 6 outs, all of them on fastballs.

In the Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual Larry Borowsky authored an article on Ankiel’s futility last year in clutch situations. What he found is that he was swinging at more pitches than usual in clutch situations, and he was missing more frequently in clutch situations. Larry reached this conclusion about Ankiel’s futility and pitch type:

Toss Ankiel a slider or change-up off the plate and let him get himself out. That was the formula in key at bats during 2008.
Clearly, that’s not what’s affecting Ankiel right now. Right now, he’s just a mess. He’s swinging at too many balls and, probably, not enough strikes. He’s missing too frequently when he does swing and pitchers are throwing fastballs right by him. Last year, according to Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x data, Ankiel batted .316 w/ 5 doubles, 2 triples, and 10 homers against fastballs. Clearly, he had more success against off-speed pitches but it’s not like he was futile against the hard stuff.

Now, I don’t really know whether the key to breaking out of a slump is to have him take a couple days off and relax or to have him see more pitches and play his way out of it. There’s probably no singular answer. What works for some doesn’t work for someone else. And with a lefty on the mound tonight and a plethora of lefties in our OF, it’s difficult to say whether Ankiel will be in tonight’s lineup. Last year, less than 50% of Lilly’s pitches were fastballs. He emphasized sliders and changeups and that pattern has persisted in his first couple of starts in ’09. Does that help or hurt Ankiel? I don’t know but he’s a mess right now and maybe seeing a pretty tough lefty isn’t exactly what he needs.

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Vision test?

Maybe Rick’s having trouble seeing the ball? He may also be pressing.

Clearly we have three better OF options, although Duncan still scares me on defense. But a little less with Colby in CF. If Chris Duncan becomes the new Manny, then I really don’t care how he plays defense.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song: Reason to Believe

by gocards62 on Apr 19, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Stress More Likely

The one consistent factor running through all of Ankiel’s troubles is stress. We saw what happened to him in stressful pitching situations. Last year, he had significant batting failures when? Oh yeah, high leverage, high stress situations.

So what’s going on now? That’s right. It’s his contract year and he needs to perform.

I think this guy psyches himself out. Fact is, he may not be on the mound any longer, but Ankiel still may be a head case.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Apr 19, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Titus Pullo

You must be post-war Titus Pullo…because these deep thoughts wouldn’t have occurred to him before becoming friends with Lucius Vorenus.

by stlfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Watching yesterday...

it appeared the Cubs were going “up the ladder” with Ankiel… throwing him high fastballs just out of the actual strike zone. The danger (for the defense) with that strategy is if you miss a little “low”, Ank could crush the pitch.

If’n it were me, I’d sit Rick tonight, and play Rasmus. I figure Ryan and Barden will both be in the lineup, since Freese may be headed to Memphis.

The Cards really need six or more good innings from The Colonel tonight!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Apr 19, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions  

craig would be my best guess

though you could also argue an extra reliever wouldn’t hurt for a few days.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Apr 19, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

if Craig comes up

wouldn’t he be in the same boat as Freese…not enough playing time. I would think they would go with another RP. I am never right about these things though.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

God knows

that 12 pitchers isn’t enough for a LaRussan staff! 13 pitchers…sheesh!

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

not that i’m for it, but the extra pitcher is at the cost of one of the not-good infielders. the problem here is that cardinals don’t have a position player that’s particularly useful for that last roster spot. the leading candidates would be rhb outfielders, and all of those guys have some significant warts.

by greenback06 on Apr 19, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

When your starters start stringing together 5 inning outings

coupled with extra inning games, then you can’t have enough relief pitchers.

The bullpen has been called on to pitch 13 innings in this series.

Miller – 1 ip
Boggs – 2 ip
Perez – 2 ip
McClellan – 3 ip
Motte – 1 ip
Franklin – 3 ip
Reyes – .2 ip (but was called on for a full inning)

And if you go back to the Arizona series

Miller – 2.2 ip
Perez – 4 ip
Motte – 3.2 ip
McClellan – 5 ip
Reyes – 1.1 ip
Kinney – 1 ip
Thompson – 1.2 ip
Franklin – 4 ip
Boggs – 2 ip

That’s 25 1/3 ip by the bullpen in 6 games compared to 30 ip by the starters.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

you could always ask

your starters to pitch to a couple extra hitters or have your relievers pitch to more than a batter or two. Brad Thompson is terrible. Is using him vs. going w/ Motte, McClellan, Perez, Reyes, or Miller for an extra batter or inning actually improving the team? I don’t think so. At best, you’re changing out 1 bad pitcher for another at the expense of a useful hitter on the bench. We’re going to play 2 lefthanded hitting OFs today against Ted Lilly — a tough lefthanded starter — partly b/c we have to have so many relievers in the bullpen. No team needs 8 relievers in the pen. It’s ok to ask one of them to get an extra batter or two out.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

two lefties in of against lilly

imho they really wanted mather on the roster, but decided he hasn’t recovered from his injuries. the numbers from memphis suggest they were right.

by greenback06 on Apr 19, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mather was injured?

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

broke his wrist last september

and then was really sick in March. One or both of these is probably contributing to his current inability to hit.

Or it might just be a slump; it’s still just about 50 PA’s.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Apr 19, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems like every major wrist injury I hear of results in 1-2 years of suppressed offense, then MAYBE a dramatic recovery. D-Lee and Ludwick come to mind as anecdotal examples of each.

by astrostl on Apr 19, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Delgado's another example

Wrist injuries just destroy hitters for a year + it seems.

by Cardaholic on Apr 19, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess

but that’s a rather simplistic way of looking at it.

Most of these guys have gone at least an inning and some even two innings in the games they’ve pitched. Do you want middle relievers going 3 innings where they’ll start seeing hitters for the second time? It’s not like these guys are shutting down the opposition 1-2-3 every inning. Our pen has been walking guys and giving up hits. Not a ton, but enough to think a 1-2-3 inning is probably not too likely.

So, that extra out you’re looking for could come with an extra walk and an extra hit or two. Is that what you’re looking for? Also, you have to deal with our lineup. The pitcher bats every nine spots in the order. I assume you don’t want relief pitchers batting for themselves, right? Of course, you could do a double switch, but that’s not always a benefit.

Plus, it’s only April 19th. Why over tax your better bullpen arms by continually asking 2 or 3 innings out of them every time they pitch?

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would expect that ...

McClellan or Boggs could go three. Each of those guys have been stretched out as starters, and each has been trained as a starter. Consequently, you would think they could face the lineup at least twice. If they can’t, then we might as well quit discussing them as starting options.

That is the problem I had with Miller being put in in the 5th inning two games ago. The point to a long reliever/6th starter in the bullpen is to handle those situations. The Cards have two of them right now. I don’t see an advantage to adding a third that has shown poor performance so far.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fine

then make the starters (save Carp, of course, in the 3 inning game) go an extra inning. It’s insane to have 8 people in your bullpen. There’s gotta be a tradeoff. If you don’t want to ask so much out of the pen, ask for more from your starters. If you want to pull the starters at the first sign of trouble, someone in the pen is going to have to be asked to get someone who hits from the opposite side of the plate out.

And it’s not simplistic to say that Thompson’s no better than McClellan or Boggs or anyone else facing an extra batter or 3. That’s a fact. To think that our problems will be solved if we can only add Thompson and have him face more batters, and our better relievers fewer, is silly.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

He hasn't been arbitrarily pulling starters.

At least the last two games have been because the starters can’t get through 5 innings with fewer than 100 pitches. There’s no way that LaRussa and Duncan are going to extend the starter beyond that pitch count in April.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Beat me to it.

I was just about to say this. You can’t (especially in April) tell your starter to just go pitch one more inning when he’s already at 100 pitches through 5 innings. That’s 20 pitches per inning and would then put him at 120 pitches.

And 100 pitches in 5 innings is slightly more taxing than 100 pitches in 7 or 8 innings. In the 5 inning start, if you’re at 100 pitches then that means your putting guys on base which means you have to make more stressful pitches, throws over to first (don’t forget those, they are often forgotten when we talk about pitch counts), and you’re probably seeing more foul balls and deeper counts.

The starters need to be better at going deeper into games. Shorter innings is what does this.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hasn't been 10 days, right?

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe Hawksworth would have been the choice

but he pitched yesterday

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I would do with tonight's lineup...

…which will be wrong because we have TLR at the helm and really…who can predict what he will do on any given night? (not saying that’s a bad thing…nor trying to spark discussion about that.)

Skippy 2B
Rasmus CF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Duncan LF
Yadi C
Greene SS
Barden 3B
Colonel P

by stlfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Since I'm going to the game

that’s exactly the lineup I want to see tonight.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

it is an awesome looking lineup

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

definitely

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Maybe a platoon between Thurston and Barden, but I think these are the guys that have earned the playing time so far.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skip is sitting

per TLR. You got the OF right, though.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why start him against LHPs

Historically he has not hit lefties and I don’t think anyone thinks his defense at 2b is better than Ryan. So shouldn’t it be a straight platoon? or do you think Skip can hit LHPs?

by OCCardsFan on Apr 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

of course

that means Ryan’s probably leading off — the worst possible scenario, except for having Wellemeyer lead off. I’d like to see Barden lead off against the lefty.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't mind seeing

Ryan get sent down and the other Greene being given a chance. I know it is possible we could lose Ryan, but it isn’t like Ryan is going to be a difference maker in a good way.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm up for this.

Frankly, I don’t really care if we lose Ryan at this point. The guy is all glove. He doesn’t seem to do anything else. He was given all of last year to prove something, but he wasn’t able to prove he should be on a major league roster. Let’s give Greene a chance. He can’t be much worse.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ryan

to me, I see him as our Adam Everett, all glove, no bat. I hope we dont pull a Twins and give him a contract.

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on Apr 19, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everett had a sick, sick glove for a while there though. 27 UZR in 2006. Almost 3 wins in the standings above his peers at SHORTSTOP DEFENSE! It looks like Everett is starting to age out of contention but I’ll be impressed if Ryan even comes close to matching a career 18.4 UZR/150.

by astrostl on Apr 19, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

Ryan has only been an average SS defender in the minors, and his sample size in the majors is too small to draw any conclusions from.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

aaah no Ryan please

Barden might be decent though, he least tries to work the count.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he’ll regress better from last year. But if there’s a lefty I’d like to sit him on, it’s Lilly. Bring the boy in during the 7th, he’ll get his innings in.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was very encouraged to see him stay at 2B late into the game yesterday

though I would have preferred Rasmus stay in the game for Duncan in LF

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ankiel must sit tonight

Let him take swings in the cages, not in a game where he’s giving the Cubs free outs

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions  

I wonder if he’s feeling the pressure of Rasmus breathing down his neck and he’s just choking due to the pressure. He almost looks as if he’s in a panic at the plate.

by DickPound on Apr 19, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Ankiel + panic

Makes my stomach clench up.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or

He could be pressing…. He is 30 years old, not getting any younger and trying to get big $$$$ on the free agent market. This next contract could set him/family up for life.

Maybe he is trying to do too much right now?

by ICbirdfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I think the hardest thing for Ankiel to do is relax, shut his brain off, and let his hands do the work.

</amateur psychologizing>

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Apr 19, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

your SN is disgusting

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

and was wondering whether anyone else would care

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

His name is Dick Pound, poor guy.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, i got it

and thought vivaelpujols was joking at first.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh

crap

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

You could

give me his 2+ million contract for this year and I would consider me/my family set for life:)

by Cardsray on Apr 19, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions  

ank must sit

i think you have to give him atleast a couple of days off. He simply isnt see the ball. intstead of 3 middle infielder types, should have been a 5th outfielder since skip is looking servicable at 2nd. That and tlr needs to breath a little bit at times he is over thinking and it just seems worse to me this year than usual

"Chuck Norris CAN divide by zero"

by elirock83 on Apr 19, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

was at the game yesterday

and I’ve gotta say that was one of the best games I’ve seen, but also the most frustrating. dempster doesn’t seem to be what he was last year, so that’s a good sign. a-ram was due, as were several other cubs, so I knew the cardinals couldn’t keep dodging bullets. eventually I was just glad to get out of there with all the annoying cubs fans (actually the ones that were sitting in our row were really cool and nice, but the ones in front of us were idiotic). I was disappointed that Pujols didn’t do much, and of course beyond frustrated with Ankiel. two extra innings losses in a row is a tough pill to swallow.

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 19, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Especially when we've led by 3 runs in both of the games.

Something that jumped out to me yesterday was the amount of 2 out cubbie runners we either put on with a walk or allowed a hit to. I think I counted 5 innings where whoever was pitching for the Cardinals got the first two hitters out and then either (usually) walked the next hitter. Twice this resulted in the cubs scoring runs.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I point to walking Geovany Soto 3 TIMES!!

The guy is batting .105 for pete’s sake. He came up twice with two out nobody on and they proceeded to walk him, not even throwing him a strike. Absolutely uncalled for. Just throw a strike. Any strike. He is their Rick Ankiel right now. Coming into yesterday he had 2 hits in 17 AB with 5K and only 1 BB. One of the times he walked yesterday he scored, also leading to a big inning. If we got him out just two of the three times he walked with two outs A. Ram never would have come up until at least the 12th or 13th.

"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell

by albrtfn on Apr 19, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Best games?

I was there too. 2 kids aside (Lord. hahaha) I don’t consider it good when my team keeps getting 2 baserunners on and failing to bring them home.

Odd day for fans. I saw multiple people get thrown out. I even saw 2 Cards fans going at it (drunk small-framed Cards fan refusing to give up seat to actual ticket-holding even-more-drunk 6’4" 240lb Cards fan).

by sdrone on Apr 19, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm encouraged so far

The Cubs are the class of the central, and perhaps of the entire league. And we are battling them blow for blow, play for play, until the games turn on tiny differences; i.e. our pen held up on Thursday, but not last night.

Our bullpen is a problem, but we already knew that. On the other hand, our starting pitching has matched the Cubs so far, as has our offense. Neither of those outcomes were predictable before the season started.

If we can leave Chicago with a split series, we’ll be in great position for a season long battle with these guys. In my book, that’s a recipe for a successful season.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Apr 19, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Right now it’s all about quality starts. If we can turn them, our offense should and very well can protect us.

But if we turn a few more 3 and 4 inning starts then we’re going to implode.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

If by "our starting pitching has matched theirs" you mean by being terrible

Then I agree. Both Z and Dempster were TERRIBLE. Dempster somehow got away with only giving up 4, but he was pretty bad. And Sean Marshall is what he is.

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Four Man Outfield Rotation

isn’t working so well. Ludwick has been benched when he should have been playing and now Ankiel cannot hit anything. Who knows if Ankiel’s problems are from the competition, the bottom line is that he is not producing. Time to abort the four man rotation and go with Duncan, Rasmus and Ludwick. Rasmus is doing well in the #2 spot and Ludwick and Duncan are doing well hitting behind Pujols in the #4 & #5 spots. Don’t screw around with something that is working.

by Warcard on Apr 19, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions  

The answer is to...

get rid of him while he still has value. He won’t be a Cardinal next year and there is no loss of value in elevating Rasmus to starter and Mather to bench guy.

Trade him immediately for whatever we can get.

by guayzimi on Apr 19, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

this is going to turn into the duncan conversation from last year

a: he sucks, let’s trade him
b: he sucks, so we can’t trade him
c: the giants are stupid, lets take one of their best starters for him!

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Apr 19, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep.

Nobody advocates trading a player when they are performing, but many seem to think you can get value based on when they performed in the past. It’s a vicious cycle.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say treat psychological injuries the same way as physical

since we did have the technology to rebuild Duncan.
…..but either way that involves the Cardinals “health” staff, so never mind.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't

Greinke go on the DL with depression issues?

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

In march of 2006.

by liam on Apr 19, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's good to hear -- not the depression part

Taking it seriously. Good preventative medicine, on and off the field.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

If someone else can do the leg work and find the post that'd be great

but didn’t LBoros do a post last year proving that Ankiel is basically nothing but a junk ball hitter; ie struggles against any kind of fastball — be it 98 or 89 — but will hit mistake offspeed pitches all day?

Perhaps the league finally figured it out and the theory that he couldn’t hit a breaking ball but could turn on a fastball has been put to rest.

(Ir)regardless, Rick is the only Cardinal position player to receive a failing grade on my two week Cardinals report card.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not gonna look it up,

but I think you’re right. Basically, he was only hitting missed offspeed pitches, and breaking balls that didn’t break. I worry about the guy, hope he can turn it around. Would really hate for the team to lose out again on him.

by fuegophil on Apr 19, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

So,

he’s Reggie Sanders with bigger slumps.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rasmus has the best BB walk rate on the team

If it’s a good idea to have someone on base in front of Albert, then starting Rasmus and putting him in the two hole should be a no-brainer.

He’s walking in 17% of his plate appearances right now, just behind Pujols’ 18%, but Albert drops to 13% if you discount intentional walks.

I also like Rasmus better on defense.

I too favor the lineup posted above…

…and this was probably mentioned in the game thread, but why remove Barden for a pinch-hitter in the 8th yesterday with two on and nobody out? So far he’s hit lefties and righties (he’s homered off both and has an OPS over .900 vs. both) equally well.

The guy is as hot as anyone the last several days (including Ludwick) and has shown an early-season knack for delivering a big hit. In the Cardinals’ last six games, he’s had 18 plate appearances and reached base in 10 of them, with 3 homers and a double… Thurston’s trending in the opposite direction after his hot start, going 1-for-10 his last four games

Home cookin' at Bake McBlog

by salvomania on Apr 19, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions  

What about Rasmus as a leadoff man?

A guy that is supposed to be full capable of hitting homeruns, combined with an ability to see pitches and take walks, sounds a lot like a beefier version of Ricky Henderson. TLR was rather fond of a leadoff guy with some pop, wasn’t he?

by fuegophil on Apr 19, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

As long as

he’s bats before Pujols, I am not picky about whether he’s first or second.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am not either

He could bat first, as long as Skip doesn’t bat second. I am happy with Skip-1 and Rasmus-2, or rasmus-1 and Duncan-2

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skip in the 9 spot

would work well.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Rasmus
Duncan
Pujols
Ludwick
Molina
Greene
Barden
pitcher
Schumaker

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's pretty good...

I’d flip Pujols and Duncan, but that’s not realistic.

by guayzimi on Apr 19, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

3 left handers in a row...

it wont happen

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber

by nomar34 on Apr 19, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

until Skip shows that he can't get on base

he should be batting at the top

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

2nd leadoff!

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skip hasn't done anything to lose his job, yet.

I don’t see how it’s fair to take Skip’s job from him when he has been performing quite well. Skip, followed by Rasmus, seems like a very good 1-2 punch. It also allows Colby’s XBH ability to be taken advantage of. I’d stick with the lineup advocated above.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

OT- Did anyone else watch the Royals game last night

Can we just really go ahead and trade fo Grienke right now? I figure Ankiel , Wallace, and some SPs would get it done (KC really can never have enough First Basemen). Too bad Moore probably isn’t THAT crazy.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

The Royals signed him to a 4-year contract thru the 2012 season in January

They finally bucked up and paid a young, talented player, and it looks like it will pay off. He’s been incredible so far this season (20 scoreless innings - 34 consecutive scoreless going back to last year), and I’m just glad I have him on both my fantasy teams.

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, that was a good contract

Them signing him to that contract is the only reason I would be willing to give up Wallace for him.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would give up anyone in our system

to get Greinke. You’d be crazy not to. The guy is 25 years old and a stud.

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

as i watched him cut through the Rangers hitters like a hot knife through butter last night,

i kept thinking to myself, why can’t the Cards get pitchers like him? i didn’t really have a good answer to myself. i did keep telling myself it’s probably a good thing we don’t have a kid like him because TLR & Dave would figure out a way ruin him.

i know, i know, that’s a cheap shot.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

by gdm426 on Apr 19, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, Zach did go through a lot of struggles

on the mound and with an anxiety disorder and depression. He was inconsistent; sent back to the minors; the Royals did fire a pitching coach that tried to change him too much along the way.

The Royals never wavered. They went through everything because they always believed he would be this good. His turn around started with last season. He carried it into this season. He’s got Cy Young potential. He’s an odd guy who had to walk a different and in some ways, more difficult route to success. Kudos to him and the Royals for seeing it through. I think they are all happy now.

I don’t know if there are many organizations that would have handled his situation the same way the Royals did. His problems were uncharted territory.

Yeah. Zach Greinke is awesome.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 19, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

may have to travel to KC to see him, then

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was lucky enough to...

sit 6th row directly behind the plate on the aisle twice when he was a rookie and starting a game. His stuff was electrifying then, and now he’s learned how to use it. I told my wife then and there that year that he would be a top of the rotation starter and have a chance to win multiple Cy Youngs. Last night during the game, she turned to me and simply said, “You might have been right.”

by stlfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's an awesome read

I love Posnanski and had never read that. Thanks for posting it.

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 20, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

that was really good

i never really knew the story of the kid till now.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

by gdm426 on Apr 20, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

They'd start and end with Pujols and maybe want more.

Greinke is the bright spot of the future here in KC (yes…it’s where I live…not my fav team, though.)

by stlfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

something tells me you are

a stl fan, no?

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber

by nomar34 on Apr 19, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Si senor...

You must have gone to Wash U; great analytical skills. :)

by stlfan on Apr 19, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trade him to the Yanks.

Now. For a SP or a RP and prospect. I like Ank, but his value is in what he can bring us now – not next year or the year after.

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Apr 19, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions  

But

is he worth anything right now? We should’ve traded him during the off-season.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would say so for the Yanks

Nady hurt, Matsui questionable at best. Maybe not for anyone else, but the Yanks need some pop in the lineup and an OF with ARoid out.

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Apr 19, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Skip has more pop than Ank does right now, which negates the value thought.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Forget pop.

Ank can barely do anything but hit infield pop-ups. It’s sad.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is. And only adds to the main post, IF pop outs are largely because the batter doesn’t have a clue on the pitch. To make matters worse, his timing is all out of whack as well

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think he had any value in the off season either since he also had health concerns.

Sadly, Opening Day was his best value thus far, and he looked too promising to keep with a respectable spring.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's a rainy day in StL...

I was asked this question yesterday, by a Cardinal fan.

“Do you really think that they’ll sign Albert when his gig is up? $25m a year for 7 years – or, 1/4 of payroll in one player who will be 38ish when the contract’s up?”

In all honesty, I had to answer no. Depressed the hell out of me.

I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck

by bukowski on Apr 19, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I honestly think they will re-sign him

If they have any hope of filling that stadium. I am a Cardianl fan first and a Albert fan second, and would still go to the games (maybe)/. I think there are thousands upon thousands of season ticket holders that would not though.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's a new book out...

by a guy named Gennaro… He talks about the value of certain players in building a team’s brand. Pujols is the kind of player that will eventually have a statue outside the park. He’ll be creating value for the team fifty years from now. Does DeWitt care about long-term value? Or is he more concerned about the short-term? I don’t know how long he intends to hang on to the team.

by guayzimi on Apr 19, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems

the team ownership cares about Cardinal tradition. I don’t think they let Pujols walk. That would be insanity.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

how long has nothing to do with it. If you have Albert locked up and then sell the team then it’ll have more value in the sale than not. His contract will be seen as an asset to a perspective buyer,even if it is costly (under the context of your comment – of course).

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

only if it is below market value.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on Apr 19, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you’re looking at it from his context, which is Albert seen as a money maker and a draw (ie, legend status) 50 years out – his short term contract means very, very little in the context of things.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can see it

25 million per year through his age 38 season, with enough deferred money to keep him well-paid into his seventies. Something like four or five million per year. A genuine lifetime contract.

by liam on Apr 19, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

no, the way to the mang's heart

Is through his charity work. If the Cardinals made a commitment to give back to the community in Albert’s name, that might be the incentive that puts us over the top. Like a canned food drive day or more youth outreach programs. Something that can’t be removed no matter who owns the team. It’d be a good faith gesture (in several senses) to say that, hey, we’re part of your institution as much as you’re a part of ours. Is there any bylaw preventing this from being an incentive?

That is the one thing that I’m sure Albert would not be able to pass up.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still think they will as well.

They can afford to try fans patience like they have been should they close the next deal with him. The repercussions of not signing him could be detrimental from an FO point of view as well as a club house one.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Insanity

Letting Pujols walk would be insanity. And unfair, frankly. We have been grossly underpaying him for several seasons now. Even if we over pay a bit when he is 38, it’s not only fair, but probably good business, since he’ll be smashing records right and left by then.

Plus, I don’t think Pujols is simply going to stop hitting. I think he’ll retain considerable value even in his last years of play.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Apr 19, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're right

about the hitting. It’s never going to be a problem for Pujols. Health, longevity… maybe. But he will always hit.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

He really isn't...

Mo Vaughn or Giambi, is he? Maybe he’ll turn into the fat version of Tony Gwynn. That guy never did dip below .300 even into his 40s. And if you believe 5’11, 199 lbs I’ve got a bridge…

by guayzimi on Apr 19, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm 5'11, and I remember 199 lbs.

Tony couldn’t remember 199 in the last days of his career. Trust me.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rick reminds me of the “quicksand” quote from “The Replacements”. It fits well with the mound issues and his batting slumps.

The thing that sucks is for a couple of games he was pounding the ball hard. Into outs, yes, but absolutely hammering the ball.

I think it has to do more with Wrigley than anything else at the moment. Tomorrow we’ll be home, which is good. Though to be fair, I must admit I’m a tad impatient with Colby’s approach at the plate and BB stats. Ank can be a 4th OF until he locks in better

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions  

we gotta remember too

that Ank is a very streaky hitter, I just wish they would never play him when he’s slumping

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 19, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then he'd never play.

You can’t know when someone comes out of a slump until they do it in a game.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would Ankiel and...

Daryl Jones bring Matt Cain? That’s a trade I’d do. Honestly Mo has to be focused on acquiring another young pitcher. The Giants have them and they badly need young position players.

by guayzimi on Apr 19, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I doubt it

but if Duncan keeps this up, Duncan and Jones might fetch Cain.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

After all

I heard the Giants are looking for a LH 1st baseman

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lincecum stuck out 13 hitters in his last starts

if that rotation gets going, than they could be a dangerous team.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hardcore - world series film

Hardcore Legend – are you aware of this “Classic World Series Film” series that plays on MLB network?

Looks like they’ve got shows on 2 of the 1960s Cardinals world series and at least one of the series from the 80s coming up.

by sdrone on Apr 19, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

no-one sees the ball well

with 4 to 6" of head movement while the ball is in flight. too much noise, not enough balanced vision.

by ball in play on Apr 19, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions  

ank needs to sit

have thurston play 2nd tonight, schu in left and have rasmus play center. ank’s issues are mostly mental, and he needs a day or two to fix things.

Welcome to Baseball Heaven.

by zoomzoomj88 on Apr 19, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

i'd rather schu sit

and play duncan in left

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

schu or duncan

just sit ank. he needs time to relax.

Welcome to Baseball Heaven.

by zoomzoomj88 on Apr 19, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions  

One thing I hadn't noticed

his walk rate isn’t horrible — 4 BBs in 43 PAs — but those 4 walks came in two games. He has 2 2-walk games and no walks at all in the other 9 games in which he’s played. That’s horrendous.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions  

OT, but Wow

the ball really does fly out of the new Yankee Stadium. Let’s go Tribe!

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions  

i noticed that, too

the HRs look like easy fly balls to the outfield, and then they’re gone. It’s scary how much this is a hitter’s park.

"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang

by bmorgan on Apr 19, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ank would look great there

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

4 games. 20 home runs. TWENTY!!!!

Those bandboxes in Texas or Cincinatti or Philadelphia can only DREAM of home run totals like that.

Five home runs a game average/ Five a game! It’s going to be horrific for the pitchers ( Yankee pitchers too) .

They should have signed Adam Dunn. He’d hit 102!

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 19, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember

when Mulder hit a homer to dead center in one of the first games at Busch and I was terrified that our new park would be a joke.

Although I can empathize with the Yankee fans, I can’t sympathize.

by liam on Apr 19, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its a wind tunnel

to RF apparently.

Sell ’em that about Ankiel!

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

So

Chien Ming Wang’s ERA+ is 14. I’m sure it’s happened but has anyone ever started the season with 3 starts and given up more than 23 runs?

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Apr 19, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions  

CC last year?

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not quite

18 through the first 3, 27 through first 4, but he actually went 14 innings in his first three starts. Wang has gone SIX.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Apr 19, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ank needs a slumpbuster.

I heard a story, probably apocryphal, about how Mark Grace got out of slumps. Suffice it to say, he swore by it and made a lucky lady in Wrigleyville happy for the night.

by ckeiner on Apr 19, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

One big difference between the two guys.

Mark Grace was (is?) a man whore.

Rick is married.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

so was gracy, still didn't stop him

and yes, those stories are very true. gracy is actually proud of them.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

by gdm426 on Apr 19, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys drive me crazy sometimes

This season just started and you guys are already to burn Ankiel at the stake. Baseball is a sport of a lot of ups and downs. Why don’t we run it by the numbers to see what his problem is?

Right now his current line is .179/.273/.231/.503

Lets start with his avg first of .179.

- He currently has a BABIP of .241 vs his career of .294. So right now he is currently hitting into bad luck. Lets look what kind of balls that he is hitting. He is hitting ground balls at a clip of 48.3 % (lg avg is 43.2%) and hit them at clip of 36.8% last year.
- He is hitting Line Drives at a clip of 10.3% (lg avg is 18.9%) and hit them at 19.4% last year. This stands out big time to me since line drives fall for hits over 70% of the time.
- He is hitting Fly Balls at 13.8% (lg avg is 28.4%) vs 28.6% last year. Most homeruns are fly balls.
- The biggest problem is the clip he is hitting infield pop ups at a rate of 27.6% (lg avg is 7.3%) vs 15.2% last year. Now a lot of the time players pop up a lot because they are chasing the high fastball out of the strike zone
- He is swinging at strikes outside of the zone at a clip of 35.9 % vs 30.4% last year but he is making contact on these swings 64.3 % of the time vs 52.6% last year.
- He is taking less first strikes than last year with 47.7 % this year vs 57.2% last year
- He is striking out at a rate of 25.6 % vs 24.2% last year, Not a huge difference
- He is walking out at a rate of 9.3 % vs 9.2% last year, so he is still waking.

So the whole problem is that he is hitting to many infield fly balls and getting unlucky with ground balls. As soon as his timing improves a tick he will be hitting more line drives and all will be corrected. His rate stats don’t seem bad just unlucky in a few important spots. Stuff that can’t be maintained.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm confused

Ankiel is hitting a shit ton of ground balls and popup, while rarely hitting fly balls or line drives, and you are saying that is a good thing. All that shows is while Ankiels approach may be similar to last year, he clearly isn’t hitting the ball well. That may no be sustainable, but it definitely isn’t a good sign.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am not saying it a good thing

But we are talking about a small sample that will most likely correct itself. I think he is chasing the high fastball out of zone and hitting them for infield pop ups. He is currently leading all of baseball with infield pop ups % and I just don’t see that lasting the whole season.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well no

But what about the ground balls and lack of liners and flyballs? That shows that he clearly is struggling, in a way that has nothing to with luck. Because of the fact that Raz, Duncan and Ludwick are hitting so well, Ankiel shouldn’t be starting everyday, until he shows that he can hit the ball again.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Back to Infield Pop Ups

The highest infield pop up rate last year was 19.9% and he is currently hitting at 27.6% which shows he can not maintain that rate. But infield pop ups are the problem. I would love to look at Pitch/Fx data to see what kind of pitch’s he is popping up but I don’t know how to do it.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

the assumption behind your infield flyball argument is that ankiel’s a MLB-quality hitter, which is kinda the question here.

the concern has been around for a while that if the scouting report ever gets around that ankiel can’t lay off the high fastball and can’t hit it either, that he’ll turn into a pumpkin like francoeur or pence. whether it’s a valid concern is something that will take the stat guys 1500 at-bats to decide, with or without the benefit of batted ball data, so the cardinals don’t have the luxury of being 100% certain on this.

by greenback06 on Apr 19, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here is all of Rick Ankiel's Infield Fly Balls this year in Pitch/Fx

- 4/13 D Davis Rick Ankiel fouled out to first (Fly). – http://tinyurl.com/czzoc9
- 4/18 C Marmol Rick Ankiel fouled out to catcher (Fly) – http://tinyurl.com/d4oaax
- 4/8 J Grabow Rick Ankiel flied out to third (Fly). – http://tinyurl.com/dxyax5
- 4/18 R Dempster Rick Ankiel flied out to second (Fly). – http://tinyurl.com/c6b8z6
- 4/6 P Maholm Rick Ankiel flied out to first (Fly). – http://tinyurl.com/cgewg3
- 4/18 K Gregg Rick Ankiel fouled out to third (Fly). – http://tinyurl.com/d985ga
- 4/11 R Oswalt Rick Ankiel fouled out to first (Fly) – http://tinyurl.com/c7tpkw

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok so I am looking over them

They are not where I thought they would be. I thought they would be high and outside of the zone. All of them are in the zone. Almost all of them are high fastballs in the upper right. So if they throw the high and inside fastball it destroys him.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

Ank’s stances has changed. His feet seem busier, like his legs aren’t planting properly. He’s jumpy. I have no video evidence to back up this statement, but that’s what my eyes are telling me at this point.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

I think it’s not that we’re being hard on him, it’s that there are other guys that might give us a better shot at winning with more playing-time.

Though it begs the question, where are the coaches?

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Apr 19, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, which if the 3 other outfielders

who are all hitting better (actually much better) than he is, do you suggest we don’t play so we can wait for Rick’s luck to get better?

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

The things you are listing aren't "bad luck"

If he was hitting the same % of LD, FB, etc. and had a .241 BABIP, I’d agree but he’s not. The poor strike zone recognition isn’t bad luck it’s poor playing. If he continues to swing at crappy pitches, he’s not going to rebound to crappy rates.

Would anyone be surprised to find out he’s hurt right now? I wouldn’t. I don’t think (at least I hope) no one is talking about burying him permanently or trading him for a bag of balls but something is wrong.

by azruavatar on Apr 19, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did he get anything fixed in the offseason

esp re: that hernia of his?

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think anybody wants to get rid of him, or send him to AAA

They just (like me) want him to sit for a few games, hit the cages, get his head back together. Good for the team, good for Rick.

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like for him to hit better

and then for us to get rid of him for something of value. I’ve been arguing for that since last season ended. I don’t know if it’s possible (it certainly isn’t right now) but I’m not ashamed to say that, if it’s at all possible for us to trade him for something of value, we should.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see him being traded for anything of value to the team right now

You might be able to flip him for a league average SP or reliever, but I don’t see how that helps the Cardinals. They need an elite stopper or #2 or better SP, and there is no way they get it for rick in this market. I just think he’s more valuable on the team

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we got a league average starter for Ankiel

Than that would be incredible. Our rotation is already very thin, and if one of our starters goes down now than we would have 2 replacement level starters in the rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Preferably for a starter with options

I still think we should pursue Phil Hughes from the Yankee’s.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

We have too many outfielders, and Ankiel simply isn’t good enough to justify taking up at bats from superior and more long term options.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's such a mess

that I don’t think AAA would even help. Jason Motte could probably ring him up with little trouble.

by bornin82 on Apr 19, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is an abuse of statistics.

Watch the guy hit right now. The original post indicates that Ankiel is swinging at balls out of the strike zone at a significant rate, not swinging at strikes in the zone, and you are indicating that his contact typically results in either a weak ground ball or an infield pop-up.

Bad luck is when a guy hits the ball hard right at a fielder. Ankiel isn’t hitting anything hard right now. Watch his PAs. His right shoulder is flying open significantly too soon. He is pulling his head off the ball during his swing. His body language indicates that he is uncomfortable in the box, and his swings indicate that he is guessing at the pitch instead of reacting to the pitch.

He looks like a player in an horrendous slump, and that’s what he is. The problem with looking at BABIP over a short sample and calling it an indicator of luck is that there may actually be a reason why his BIP are not hits. Using the statistics you have provided, it would reinforce that the balls he is putting in play are outs not because of luck but because he can’t center the ball.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ankiel has a lot of problems right now

but bad luck isn’t one of them. I wish that was the case. He’s just a mess at the plate, as I said. It’s a slump, and should get fixed. The question is how to get him out of it. I don’t know. He’s killing the team right now but it’s a marathon, not a sprint and maybe he needs to hit his way out of it. Or maybe he needs to sit and let the others play — they’ll help the team in the interim.

by chuckb on Apr 19, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

That depends on what kind of a head case he is.

They say that most guys have to hit out of a slump. I’m afraid Ankiel’s history indicates that he doesn’t have the mental makeup to pull himself out of these kinds of slumps. I’m not saying that I’m sure he’s done, but his past track record concerns me on his capability of pulling out of this. Maybe MacRae can do something to help him calm down, or maybe sitting him will help. I’m afraid that sitting him will cause him to slip into a mindset that ends his career.

by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

Albert can fix him.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Radar link

for the Chi here. Doesn’t look too promising.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions  

As of now.

I’m still going. If it gets rained out, sobeit. I’ll probably just get something to eat instead.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe not a bad thing to have a rainout

The bullpen is toast, and Welly isn’t known for going deep into games. Rather reschedule for a day when Carp is back in the rotation (knock on wood).

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree

about the rainout. The BP needs a break.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Since both teams have an off day tomorrow

and neither have far to go (both will be at home on Tuesday) it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one called without much wait… they could make it up tomorrow (weather permitting).

Still would be good for the bullpen, but I don’t know how MUCH ESPNutz will have to say about how long they wait it out.

Baseball Fever.... Catch it!

by skcabrozar on Apr 19, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aren't rainouts sort of at a home team's discretion?

If so, I could see the Cubs wanting to call it too.. Their bullpen is pretty tired too (Gregg pitched 2 innings yesterday—after Lou said it was problematic for him to do so).

On the other-hand, Lilly was pretty lights out last game, and pitched deep into the game. Furthermore he’s had a history of success against the Cardinals, so Lou might be ok with rolling the dice that Lilly gives him 7-8 innings, the Cubs score a ton off the Cards, and Heilman can close it out in a non-save situation.

by cloistermaximus on Apr 19, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Leach and the FO

might not agree . I can see the reasoning. The Cards are gonna need day off sometime this month.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

No move made

so I’m guessing that the move they would have made would have been Hawksworth

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think, as unexiting as it would be,

it would have been Manning.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

At least with Hawksworth

It would have been like the failed prospect finally getting his shot. We did at one point have very high hopes for the Hawk.

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

of course now that I think about it

the rainout gives them a day off. Of course 20 days without a day off is still better than 21.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fine with me

Now I don’t have to decide between Hockey and Baseball

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

gee, soccer on ice or the greatest game ever invented?

yeah, that’s a tough one

i realize there are a ton of hockey fans around here & i’m not dissing your sport. i just don’t get it. baseball is king for me that’s all.

It kind of sounds like he’s [Duncan] just running around like a puppy out there – full speed ahead in random directions. – BTown Birds Fan

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

by gdm426 on Apr 19, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's barely sprinkling here

I’m not even wearing a jacket to work outside.

by sdrone on Apr 19, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Anyone have any word on the move to be made

I know that Hawksworth pitched yesterday, and I saw the name Scherer(not exciting)

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

I have no clue what pitchers they would call up

Since you can’t call up Thompson or Kinney.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Apr 19, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

3 LOOGYs though?

Yuck

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was going over the Memphis stats

and no one excites me other than Todd. Im not sure that theyre ready to do that. Im not sure I’d want to start his clock either. Hawksworth would have been the choice I think.

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jess Todd won't be up this year

we have a major 40 man roster problem coming up this offseason and putting Jess Todd on it would only further complicate things.

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

you would think it would have to be one of the two if it is a pitcher

Hawksworth has been starting, and Scherer relieving.

Whoever it is, this is gonna be interesting.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

The White Sox have cornered the market

on guys that look younger than Brad Thompson

The only one who liked the Cardinals so much he became a St. Louis Cardinals football fan.

by coachnick39 on Apr 19, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Ha!

A lot of them ARE younger than Brad Thompson!

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 19, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great news

I did not like the match up of Welle vs Lilly

MyBrute - Where tiny gladiators rule the internets

by dcfcblues on Apr 19, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the team needed it, though...

Not just the bullpen, I think Pujols looked a bit gassed.

by DiscoJer on Apr 19, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

Pujols should’ve rested Saturday. That HBP was on a really sensitive part of the arm.

Classic underachiever.

by spants on Apr 19, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

TONIGHT’S GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED DUE TO INCLEMENT WEATHER. THE GAME WILL BE MADE UP JULY 12 AS PART OF A DAY-NIGHT DOUBLEHEADER STARTING AT 1:05 P.M. ET.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions  

via TOLAXOR, apparently

or espn.com. Whatevs.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Apr 19, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Question for the tech-savvy

I just got my cable hooked up a couple of weeks ago and I was gifted the MLB Extra Innings package as an early birthday present. I’m currently working evenings however, and I’m looking into getting a DVR so I can start recording games. I’ve never DVR’d before, so I’m wondering if some of you folks who do might have a recommendation or two to help me get started. Mainly I’m wondering what kind of system to get, and whether or not I have to actually subscribe to a DVR service (like TIVO). Any help would be greatly appreciated. :-)

"Who is John Gall?"

by iron duke75 on Apr 19, 2009 7:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Personally

I would call back the cable company (or check ebay if you think you can set up your own system) and see how much getting a box with dvr built in would be. Generally thats the simplest solution that I know of. I’ve never used tivo or any of the other services but if your looking for the easiest solution that would probably be to work with the cable company.

by cyko42 on Apr 19, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've got a DVR from the cable company

it costs me an extra five bucks per month, I think. Absolutely worth it.

My DVR has two tuners on it, so I can watch two different games at once, pausing and flipping back and forth. Great feature.

by liam on Apr 19, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

The benefit of the two tuners

is you can watch one program and record another one at the same time (or simply record two programs at the same time). I record practically everything I watch. I’ve become a DVR addict. I never watch commercials at all and when I happen to actually watch something live, I’m always trying to fast forward through the commercials out of habit.

Also, recording games and then starting the recording when the game is about half over, fast forwarding through the commercials and then catching up with the live feed right at the end of the game is a talent in and of itself. Something to be marveled.

I get a "D" in common sense ... and an "F" in general helping.

by Tackle Box on Apr 19, 2009 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I do

is watch one game with the other tuner paused on another game. Hit a commercial, pause, and swap to the other tuner; watch until I hit a commercial, pause, and swap back. Just leapfrog back and forth like that, making sure not to watch long enough on one channel to see a future score for the other game in the ticker.

I’ve had the DVR for a three or four years, but hadn’t discovered that swap button until a friend showed me Thanksgiving weekend. Couldn’t have had better timing, because we watched football for three days straight without seeing a single commercial, I think.

by liam on Apr 20, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

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