Why we should wait to judge this team.
by etp_stl on Apr 17, 2009 7:32 PM EDT
33 comments
This is more to spark objective discussion, than what it is to define a current statistical analysis of the team.
If this team can hang in there until the All-Star break, then I believe you will start to see some cohesion. There are a lot of young players in positions of responsibility this year. In my opinion, here are the things that will be sorted out between now and the trading deadline.
Middle Infield:
- Schumaker can't be evaluated until he has a half season at 2B under his belt. He hasn't embarrased himself, yet; but he still seems to be awfully slow on the turn of the DP. That will catch up to us if he can't get smoother at that. Especially with the loss of Carpenter. The rest of our staff relies heavily on the team's defense.
- Khalil Greene will either show his '07 form or his '08 form by the All-Star break. Right now, we haven't exactly seen the upgrade from Izturis that was billed. On the bright side, he costs a lot more. I think he will probably start producing, but I don't know if he is going to respond well to the constant lineup shuffling. I definitely don't see a reason for him to be put in the 4 hole again this season. I wouldn't hit him ahead of Yadi, either.
- Barden/Thurston/Ryan will shake out so that two probably stay through the season, and the third will be discarded. I can't see an argument for Ryan, at this point; but, again, it's early. I would like to see a couple months out of these guys to see how it shakes out. It seems to me that we have probably seen the best that Ryan is going to provide offensively. It's really going to be up to the other two to maintain their current production to keep their spots.
Third Base:
- Freese is going to have to show more than just glove to keep his job with the big club. Freese has shown well offensively in AAA, but so did John Gall. We'll have to see if he can make the jump. I think you'll be looking at 2 months to see what shakes out at that position, as well.
-Neither Barden nor Thurston have seemed to be a significant enough downgrade defensively to justify them not playing over Freese, so far.
- I'm not expecting Glaus to be back in Cardinal red. As the saying goes, fool me once ...
Relief Pitching:
- McClellan/Perez/Motte/Kinney/Boggs will either straighten it out or go back to the minors by then.
- I think that McClellan, Perez, Motte, Kinney, and Franklin are going to solidify the right side of the bullpen.
- I'm not convinced on Boggs, but he could prove me wrong. McClellan seems to be settling down (every reliever will have the occasional hiccup).
- Kinney, Motte, and Perez are going to start to figure it out by the All-Star break. The frustration of failure goes with the territory of watching these young pitchers develop. I think they are going to be pretty exciting for years to come, but that means going through the growing pains with them now.
- Franklin is going to give us what we have come to expect from him. Generally, he is going to get the job done, while continuing to be the single, greatest salesman for Rolaids in the known universe.
Starting Pitching:
- Carpenter is either going to be back by the All-Star break, or his oblique tear is going to follow down the path of Woody Williams. Even if he comes back, he might not stay due to that injury; and he will probably be on a limited pitch count. If he comes back healthy, this team has a chance to contend. Otherwise, they probably don't.
- Walters/Boggs will either become valuable 5-6 starters, or they won't. I liked the flashes that Walters showed today, but he hasn't proven to be a valid rotation guy, just yet. Let's see how he progresses over the next few months. It isn't like the team has a lot of options for developing that position, right now.
- Will Ottavino, Hawksworth, or Todd become valid options to start? I think it would be extremely optimistic to believe that Carpenter will be the only injured starter for the entire year. Consequently, the Cards are going to need one of these guys to fill in at some point this year. That, or maybe Todd takes McClellan's spot when he is moved to the rotation.
- Can the Cards find a reliable option via trade? Some have indicated the problems the organization is going to have next year in using the 40-man roster to protect players. I think they have reached the point where some of these prized prospects are going to have to be traded to fill major league holes and make room on the 40-man. Will Mozeliak and Luhnow be able to identify and execute opportunities to improve the team? I think we'll see that by the trading deadline this year.
Outfield:
- I think we can all agree that Ludwick seems to be more than just a one-year wonder. It's still early, but I don't see any signs that the rest of the league has "figured him out." He seems like he will be the protection that Pujols needs.
- We will see if Duncan/Ankiel can stay healthy for an entire year. Both have shown a significant propensity for injury. We still need to see if Ankiel's hitting is going to come around, but the kid has so much talent that it seems unlikely he will not turn it around. Ultimately, I think one of these two are going to be included in a trade at the deadline if they are both producing by then.
- Rasmus/Mather/Barton/Jay/et al will make their claims for fourth and fifth outfielders. Mather has gotten off to an awful start. He is quickly giving away his opportunity. Rasmus seems to be up to his billing. It will be interesting to see if he hits the swoon that has plagued him throughout his career when transitioning levels. I think Barton or Jay can make cases for themselves once a position opens up due to trade. Maybe the Cards will trade one of them, instead.
It's still a long season. We have 150 games to go, so the snap decisions comparing this team to last year's team are a little silly. I personally think it's going to be fun to see how these things flesh out over the course of the season. I like watching all of these guys grow up in front of us, but we have to remember that they are doing just that: growing up. It's unfair to label Motte or Perez as a failure after the first couple of opportunities. It's impossible to decide what we have in Walters or Freese or Thurston, etc. How do you guys see these shaking out?
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very nice analysis
Freese – we have no idea what we have here
Carp – I don’t think that playoff contention depends on him anymore
Boggs – should be a starter, but he is still developing
Barden and Thurston – part of me says that they will fizzle out, the other part says they will be key players, whether it’s off the bench, platooning, etc. so confusing
Walters – may just be the missing link, but I doubt it
Khalil Greene – we won’t get the ‘07 or the ’08 version, but somewhere in between
Bullpen – still in the blender, drink not yet prepared
Trade – it will happen, they won’t sit on their hands like last year
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 17, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m trying to reserve judgement – personally I think May 21st we’ll start to really know what we have.
That’ll be three series vs the Cubbies, three vs the Pirates and a tour through most of the NL West (aside from the Marlins).
That being said -
Greene will be Greene, either he’s the difference maker in the game, or a non factor. Lineup shuffling could be an issue for him but that should settle out as surrounding players/splits take care of themselves. He’s going to strikeout a bit, always has. But his glove is sound considering the players on his left and right.
I’m still bullish on Thurston and Mather. Thurston with the Luddy effect (finally getting a true chance) without being Barton’ed (I still feel that Barton’s playing time getting stiffled is what cooled his massive spring.) Mather will warm up, and we have roster issues having him up anyways.
As of now, I still like the bullpen, though everyone seems to gripe about it. Our offense should be strong enough to protect it from wearing down, we have options with options in Memphis to keep a decent shuttle going, we have an aggressive start to the year as well. So far it’s protected some really tight leads and only has been over exposed in the short, short innings from a starter (carp getting hurt, walter’s debut).
Motte and Perez are both going to have hiccups, it happens. Everyone preached it at the start of the year, and seemed to forget it once they did. Kinney’s stuff is still electric, he’ll find control. and despite all of the bullshit you read Franklin has looked fantastic short of one very loud out
Walters was impressive considering the circumstances, I still have no faith in Joel and I’ve in the past laid out why Boggs is better than his splits indicate and could easily be a #3 starter. If his change up is found..and real, he will be a difference maker come years end.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 17, 2009 9:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
As of now, I still like the bullpen, though everyone seems to gripe about it.
Totally agree AE. If our starters only go 5, we’re in trouble, esp. with the brutal opening stretch of games we face. Now with Carp out, the remaining guys have to step up. Unfortunately Lohse frittered away a lead Saturday
The spotlight’s also on Mo and Luhnow to show that the young starters (PJ, Boggs, et. al.) can fill in. We’re going to see a lot of them in the next three weeks.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Apr 19, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bullpen = bad
it sounds harsh but mcclellan franklin and reyes are the only ones I can watch pitch the rest of them are a crap shoot that usually turns up snake eyes
by Chuckiep on Apr 17, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope we don't see Todd
This article in The Cardinal Nation, back on February 4th, talks about the potential problems we will have with the Rule V draft next Winter:
http://thecardinalnation.com/2009/02/04/cards-2009-rule5-draft-part2/
Bringing up Todd or Wallace, even in September, means one less prospect we can protect. Now, I’ll concede that if either improves the club enough to make us a contender, by all means bring them up and accept the loss later. But if that isn’t the case, then let’s hang on to one more prospect for next year.
The Cardinals generally do a very good job of managing the 40 man roster. The perfect example of not doing so is Arizona having to DFA Barden because their 40 man roster was full and they needed to add someone. But either we will lose people this Winter or we’re over-rating our prospects significantly.
by chessed on Apr 17, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think some of those players should be gone...
Some of them seem to be just doing nothing in this organization, in terms of their future prospects. Craig, for instance. How much longer should he languish in the minors, on another team, he probably could have started the season in the majors.
Same with some of the outfield prospects. There are too many.
Not that I’m saying the Cardinals should lose them. But Mo should start moving some of the guys in positions where they have a logjam at, and get guys in positions where they don’t.
OTOH, if they can’t be moved, then what are the chances they’ll be taken? Do we really have to worry about other teams taking most of these guys? Probably not…
by DiscoJer on Apr 17, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Craig would be gone in an instant.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Apr 18, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with your last point vehemently
OTOH, if they can’t be moved, then what are the chances they’ll be taken? Do we really have to worry about other teams taking most of these guys? Probably not…
There’s a big difference between trading for a guy and picking him up for free in the rule V draft. Yes, he has to be on your roster all year, but if it’s a guy like Craig, Jay, Anderson, Mortenson, Todd, Boggs, Salas, Perez, Motte, Ottavino, Wallace, Mather, Jones, or Barden, teams would easily just pencil them into their opening day roster because they’re good enough to play at the major league level in some capacity right now. It just shows you how deep our farm systems has gotten in the last couple of years.
Just because they can’t be traded doesn’t mean they won’ be picked if left unprotected. The Cardinals probably never would have traded for Brian Barton or Brian Barden, but we got them for free via the Rule V draft and the waiver wire, respectively
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 18, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i almost hope for that
Mo seems very reluctant to make a “big” trade. I think I’m more confident in his ability to do so than he is (I’m a big Mo fan) and think if he was forced to, he’d make something interesting happen.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Apr 20, 2009 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
From what I have seen so far each night is the way the bullpen seems to let games fall apart. Sure today there was some good innings in relief of Lohse, but this seems to be the same issue as last season if not more serious because last year it was mainly a blown save, while this year seems like the whole pen.
Had we stuck Carp as the closer John Smoltz style for the beginning of the season, how nasty of a closer would we have? Didn’t Carp get hurt while batting? Had he been the closer he wouldn’t of batted at all. Period.
The different closer each night thing is getting old and will probably keep blowing up. For the pitchers themselves not knowing if they’re gonna be called on to end the game can probably be nerve racking. If you designate one person to close out the game, say Franklin, then he can focus on that task. I’m just amazed that the record is as good as it is to start. Thank the starting pitching and the timely offense.
We got rid of Izzy because he was no longer capable and put in 6 or 7 more incapable guys to try to fill the void. Way to go! Hell, we should have kept Looper and put him as a closer.
What happened to the guys in the commercial with the Bruce Sutter beards? Apparently the itching means YOU SUCK!
by Niemann on Apr 19, 2009 1:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
way to keep an open mind
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is awful analysis
why would you use your best starter as a closer? carp had another freak injury. it happens. he pitched 7 scoreless innings of one hit ball in his first start and you want him to pitch 1 inning 3 times a week?
as pointed out above, the bullpen cant pitch 4 innings every game. of course they are going to give up runs over four innings. what did we see yesterday? a pretty solid bullpen outing until a loogy had to face three righties. why? the bullpen pitched 5 innings the day before.
i don’t know of any data that suggests a designated closer performs better than using the best person for the situation. if you have some i’d love to see it.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 19, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really "awful analysis"
More a matter of “hindsight is 20/20”.
As far as the analysis goes, all decisions like this are based on a calculation of risk vs reward. Any risk assessment would have placed the odds of getting hurt while batting as very, very low. In hindsight, we know that was a bad assessment, but seriously, how many pitchers have been hurt while batting in the last 10 years? 2, now? (carp and wang?) Anyone else I’m missing? i can’t think of any, and Wang’s injury was very short-term, and blown out of proportion by an awful yankees FO.
(well, it seemed that way, last year)
Meanwhile, the rewards of having an elite starting pitcher far outweigh the odds of having an elite closer, all else being equal. With an added calculated risk, even with Carp’s injury added in, of very little difference. 2 times x, with x being vanishingly small, is not a big x.
However, had our front office (or anyone) been able to look at carp’s profile and determine that he was a higher risk than the typical player, this might be an interesting topic. Carp has always been an AWFUL hitter- maybe there is something in his stance or approach that makes him more likely to be injured?
…
If Carp had been hurt in a way that was representative of a relief pitcher, that would be fine, but he was hurt in such a ridiculous manner that right now I think the GOB are just setting us up for an awesome september. And I don’t see how they could let us lose, as I understand their methodology.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
by SleepyCA on Apr 20, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Woody Williams.
He hurt his oblique that year swinging the bat, as well.
by etp_stl on Apr 20, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what several of us tried to caution about before the season.
This type of overreaction to a few failures from Motte, Perez, and Kinney was to be expected. We tried to indicate that there were going to be growing pains. This was the point that LaRussa and Duncan were making when they called for a veteran gap-filler, so that these guys could continue to develop.
Carpenter has no history as a closer, and there was no indication that he couldn’t start in spring training. He injured himself swinging a bat. This doesn’t indicate the Cards made the wrong decision in putting their best starter in the rotation. The organization cannot make positional decisions based on the fear that something unforseen might happen. The only reason for putting Carp at the back end of the bullpen would be based on a relapse of the injury from which he was recovering. There is no indication that starting him has had any effect on his injury recovery.
by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
while i agree...
… that certain things will take some time to shake out, this ain’t Spring Training. these games count, and this team has a pretty small margin for error. it’s very doubtful that we’ll be able to stay with the Cubs all year, so it’s likely that we’re fighting for the Wild Card. blowing a game here or there while we experiment and try different combinations could be the difference between playing golf or baseball in October.
as it stands, i really don’t think this team is equipped to make the playoffs this year. in a perfect world were Glaus and Carp aren’t injured, and Motte and/or Perez jump right in and start dominating the late innings, then maybe. but we’re not in that world. so my opinion is that we should let the kids work through their problems, take our lumps this year as they come, and go for broke next year.
if we’re still contending late in the year, it’s gravy. but at this point i don’t think that should be the expectation. give more ABs to Rasmus and Freese. give more high leverage spots to Motte and Perez. let the kids sink or swim, and see where we end up.
by kindred on Apr 19, 2009 1:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree with your expectations.
I think this team has been put together tenuously, at best. I don’t think anybody, including the front office and field management, believe this team has the depth to handle a rash of injuries. I’m not sure if Carp and Glaus are enough to be considered significant injuries, but it has definitely put the organization’s analysis of their minor league system on trial early. Their depth at third base has definitely been put into the spotlight.
I think I am, as you stated, more interested in seeing the individual developments of the young players than in hypothetical playoff aspirations. I love playoff baseball, and I think it is possible for this team to make a strong run at a wild-card spot if their struggles can balance through the first half of the season. I am more interested, though, in seeing how these young players, players returning from injury, and players trying to make improbable transitions (I’m looking at you Skip) succeed or fail in their journeys. I have been amazed by number of people that have written off Motte, Perez, Freese, et al because they didn’t light the world on fire in their first two weeks.
by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
although
if the Cubs starters remain as crappy as they have this early in the season (if Ted Lilly is your ace, you have problems) it will be very tight
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 20, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why I think we should wait to judge this team?
It is two freakin weeks into the season!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 2:09 AM EDT reply actions 4 recs
+100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
I agree
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Apr 19, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry.
I thought that was the point I was making. I was just trying to provide reasons to indicate the several places on this team that need time to shake out. If I didn’t do it, I will try better next time. I wrote this post because there seemed to be a great deal of writing this team off after two weeks in the game threads. I started it as a response in a game thread, and I decided it was significantly too long for that.
by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked it etp’, wouldn’t mind revisiting it mid May as well. IMO, nothing to apologize for.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Remind me, and I will do the revision.
I’m busy a lot, so I tend to get ADD about things.
by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am in agreement with all the points you made. In fact, I rec'd this post.
I should have added an “also” to my comment.
I just think that two weeks is way too soon to expect the team(and bullpen) to have jelled. I think as soon as the bullpen settles into their roles, it will be a much better pen. I just hope Franklin can keep this up for the rest ofthe season, I have been very impressed with him so far.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Apr 19, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the rec.
I agree about Franklin. I think his history would indicate that we will see some bumps along the way with him, but, in general, he will probably get the job done. I don’t really want to see him as the closer, myself, but I think he is a very good situational right-hander. I think he is really the best replacement for Springer, and I would like to see the setup and closer roles selected from the combination of McClellan, Kinney (yes, I know he’s at AAA), Perez, and Motte. I think McClellan and Kinney make the best sense for the setup role.
by etp_stl on Apr 19, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The team's problems have been apparent for awhile, not just two weeks
I hope the Cardinals do well—I love the team. And I’m not big for making quick judgements over small samples. But these aren’t quick judgements over small samples. These are problems that years of evidence show are serious problems.
Problem 1: Larussa and Duncan have a long and poor track record of developing young pitching, and Duncan has a poor record of developing strikeout pitchers in particular.
The plan to fix the bullpen by giving key roles to two rookie strikeout pitchers was not a good one given Larussa and Duncan. It might ultimately work, but it is not a good plan. Motte’s and Perez’s strength is they are hard to make contact against. This doesn’t mix with “pitch to contact.” And the fact that Larussa clearly did not and does not want them in important roles cannot help their confidence.
Problem 2: Not picking up someone to backup the injury prone Carpenter is a bad idea.
That Carpenter got quickly hurt is tragically unsurprising. This is not a case of making a snap judgement after two weeks of play—Carpenter has not been able to stay healthy for two years. And I don’t know of anyone outside Cardinals nation who sees Walters and Boggs as viable major league starters. Walters last year in 122 innings in Memphis allowed more than 1.5 runners per inning and 17 home runs. He struggled to keep his ERA under 5.00.
Problem 3: Schumaker is not a second baseman
In a couple months, he is very unlikely to suddenly turn into a good major league second baseman. Over 100 years of baseball history shows that outfielders with no professional experience as infielders do not suddenly become viable second basemen.
Problem 4: Other than the injury prone (and injured) Glaus, we probably don’t have a major league ready third baseman in the organization.
I’m all for trying Freese to see if he is anything, but neither scouts nor prediction systems see much there. That Glaus got hurt is not surprising. When we got him, the trade was seen as an exchange of injury prone players.
Problem 5: Joel Piniero has no business in the rotation of a contending team
Again, this is not a case of making a judgement after 2 weeks. Joel Pineiro has spent several years and hundreds of innings proving that he is a bad pitcher. His 63 magical first innings in the NL in 2007, when compared to years worth of terrible innings, scream “fluke.” He is on the team because he is guaranteed millions of dollars and there is no one else to pitch, not because he will likely do well.
Am I saying none of these will work out? No. But to the succeed, the Cardinals have to have most of these work out, and the odds are against that. The problem is not that the Cardinals took a risk. The problem is that they took too many very big risks. Just as the old plan of building a starting rotation out of scrap heap pitchers and assuming Duncan can make them great was a bad plan—it’s not that Dave Duncan can’t turn a scrap heap pitcher into a good one—nobody is better at it. But he can’t always do it, and when your post season plans rely on Duncan making gold out of Sidney Ponson or Mike Maroth, that is a plan in the same sense as saying your lottery winnings will support your retirement, and thus hope masquerading as planning.
by tarakas on Apr 19, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Problem Long held assumption #1.
Can you provide any actual facts that shows they have issues developing young pitching? Down to earth, straight at the issue facts. Reyes + a couple others don’t count. But significant and and repetitive data that shows that? I don’t think you can. It’s not like there’s a ton of data points anyways – their history contains quite a few free agent signings as it is.
Also, what shows that Duncan is bad with strikeout pitchers? Yeah, we all know he game plans and approaches with a pitch to contact approach. But what shows it has issues with ones he has?
The young guns problems (documented) haven’t had one thing to do with Duncan thus far. Both guys off speed arsenal has been lackluster at best, Motte’s fastball is a few MPH under what it was last Sept. Perez’s slider which has been highly touted and seen in the minors has yet to show up in the majors. Blame Duncan for that? Come on.
Why is it a bad idea? Let’s see if Boggs’s changeup is up to par. If it is then lefties can no longer sit on his fastball, or get the gift of the wheel house pitch that is the RHP slurve. His righty splits are very respectable.
Walters earned a few appearances with his spring. Let him have them. Yeah, we can pluck through his stats last season all day long, but we can with a lot of the other guys from Memphis as well. You see Skip’s numbers translating into what we got last year? Was Yadi’s ’08 a true fluke?
#3. If anything, Skip has shown that there’s a lot less reasons to doubt what he’s able to do. The kid is doing just fine, especially when you consider the scrutiny behind it. It’s not like he has Albert’s bat so people look the other way (read: like when Albert switched to 1B or LF for that matter). He’s not fluid, of course not. But he’s making reasonable plays with a gem or two thrown in, he’s got a guy who can range well to his right on first, and a guy who can range very well to his left on short. 100 years of it not happening doesn’t mean squat, and we both know it.
4 I wouldn’t call Glaus oft injured. He had shoulder issues over ‘03/’04 and has played 150 games three times since. The year he didn’t was because of feet issues due to being on a turf field. It happens (and he still played well over 100 games). Were we s’posed to have a 3b this year all primed and ready to go? No, we were on a development track that got put out of whack by a fluke injury during a workout.
PA OPS H BB K R Glaus 53 .654 10 7 10 1 Makeshift 46 .800 14 5 9 6
I’d say the make shift approach through 13 games is working out just fine, no major league ready 3B or not.
and..
I guess you can put me in the camp of doesn’t like Joel, doesn’t have faith in Joel and while he’s overpaid, isn’t overly concerned that he’s on the roster this year. He’s generally durable (aside from last year) in a year where durability is key. While he did suck last year, no one wants to consider the spring he went through before those stats, nor do they want to accept the idea that while he may suck he very well could regress better.
Considering the pitchers everyone wanted (Looper – hurt, Fuentes – blown save, 4er in 4 innngs, Sheets – in 5 peices, Garland – lol) if the Front Office is playing the lottery, I want some of those numbers. Joel is the least of our issues. Only on the roster because of his salary? Perhaps, but seems to fly in the face of your “hasn’t happened in 100 years” comment before, considering, well.. you know – our 4m second baseman isn’t exactly on the team.
Didn’t mean to pick apart your comment, just happened to have quite a few of the assumptions/non issues I’ve been debating all offseason/ST
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 19, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
afraid the judging has already begun
With Carp down and out (again), it looks like it’s going to be last year all over again.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
by zoomzoomj88 on Apr 19, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One possibly important difference
is that even the injury mavens like Will Carroll (BP) are saying that Carp should be back from this one in another month or so. Oblique injuries aren’t the same thing as arm trouble.
by StanTheManFan on Apr 19, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Will Carroll says
“I think he’ll end up toward the back of the 4-8 week range, probably at around six weeks missed.”
He also says:
“While most are busy saying “at least it’s not his arm,” I’m going to play the killjoy here. Carpenter’s oblique strain may have happened while he was swinging, but it’s still what I call a “kinetic chain” injury. The kinetic chain is that series of movements that moves force through the body, from push-off to release, allowing a ball to go toward the plate at upwards of 90 mph. Any chain has a weak link, and any weak link can throw off both the force and the way that force is distributed through the body."
So it’s not arm trouble, but he sees it as an injury related to pitching, and sees this as another weak link developing in Carp’s body.
by tarakas on Apr 20, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overall, I'm positive
I especially like a season with no F Lopez or A Kennedy in the infield; I’m VERY glad Izzy is finally gone.
I’m pleased with Skip, and Khalil, and the 3rd base replacements; Yadi is playing with intelligence for a change as well as skill. Lohse looks solid and Wainer will hit his stride again soon.
Growing pains for the pen, yes, but I have a hunch they will be super-good by July.
But please, Tony, don’t ever sit Ludwick unless he really NEEDS a night off; play Rasmus more, and for godsakes why was Ankiel still in the game Saturday after his first two at-bats?
by the Tewk on Apr 20, 2009 5:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My observations...
lead me to believe that Rick Ankiel needs to be traded. Colby’s OBP is still at .366 even when hitting .235, so I think that will improve even more once he starts to get hot (always starts slow at each level). He needs to be the leadoff hitter on this team (just like Sizemore in Cleveland). Duncan and Ludwick have obviously played their way as everyday fixtures in the lineup (Duncan has hit .389 vs LHP this season, I know it’s a small sample size, but you have to at least believe he has improved that aspect of his game).
The day off due to rain will help the bullpen get some rest and improve the effectiveness. A lot of teams dip after losing a starter early in a game unless they get some really good outings by the next couple of starters, which is difficult in this case since your next opponent has one of the best lineups in baseball.
I don’t see how anyone can say after this recent series with the Cubs that the Cubs are the runaway favorites still. The Cards had chances to win every game at Wrigley. I believe the results would have been much different had the bullpen not been overused due to Carp’s injury. We were still able to score runs against the Cubs pitching staff, which in my opinion, is where the Cubs have the greatest advantage over the Cardinals on paper. I know we didn’t see Harden, but he only throws every 5th game and only goes 5-6 innings. That leaves a lot of outs that need to be recorded to bridge the gap from Harden to a W.
by Jumsy on Apr 20, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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