On the other hand...
by chuckb on Apr 16, 2009 7:45 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintThe two decisions that are particularly curious are Tony’s decision to use Ryan rather than Ludwick as a pinch hitter with one out and the bases loaded in the 9th and the decision to use Brad Thompson rather than Ryan Franklin in relief in the bottom of the 9th. (There sure are a lot of "Ryans" involved here. Any chance all of them confused ‘ol Tony?) Tony explained his decision to go w/ Ryan (Brendan) rather than Ryan (Ludwick) thusly:
Derrick Goold, in the article linked above, did a pretty good job handling the double play reference. He notes that only a very few players in baseball were less likely to hit into a double play last year than Ludwick. Last year Ludwick grounded into 8 DPs in 303 PAs w/ runners on 1st base – a rate of 2.6%. In other words, he was likely to hit into a double play one out of every 40 times he came to the plate w/ a runner on 1st base. Last year Ryan’s rate was 4 DPs in 91 PAs -- 4.4% of the time or 1 out of every 23 times he comes to the plate w/ a runner on first. What about for their respective careers? Ludwick has hit into 15 DPs in 646 PAs while Ryan has hit into 7 DPs in 190 PAs w/ a runner on first. Ludwick’s rate is 2.3% and Ryan’s is 3.7%. Why, exactly, is Ludwick more likely to hit into a double play?
Maybe history has nothing to do with it or Ryan’s sample size is too small or those numbers aren’t necessarily double play situations b/c many of them may have come w/ 2 outs. Ok. Double plays occur on ground balls, right? Who’s more likely to hit a ground ball in that situation? Ludwick’s career GB rate is 30.1% and for the last 2 years it’s been 27.3% and 17.6%. How about Ryan? Career – 48.9%. Last 2 years – 47.1% and 52.1%. Ground ball to fly ball ratio? Career: Ludwick – 0.63; Ryan – 1.53. Last 2 years: Ludwick – 0.79 and 0.59 ; Ryan – 1.38 and 1.83. Ludwick is a fly ball hitter. Brendan Ryan is a ground ball hitter. Is there any plausible scenario where a fly ball hitter could come in handy w/ 1 out and the bases loaded in a tie game in the 9th? Hmmm……
In short, it is impossible for me to believe that Tony really believed that Ludwick was more likely to hit into a double play than Ryan was. I’m not calling him wrong. I’m saying that his statement to Derrick Goold is factually untrue. He did not, in my opinion, really believe that Ludwick was more likely to hit into a DP. It is simply inconceivable for a man w/ Tony’s knowledge of the game to think that Ludwick, despite Ryan’s speed advantage, was more likely to hit into the double play.
Now, there’s little doubt that Ludwick was more likely to strike out than Ryan was. Ludwick’s career K rate is 26.9% while Ryan’s is 13.7%. That said, a double play is worse than a strikeout in that situation. At least a K brings Ankiel to the plate.
What benefits does each hitter provide? It goes w/o saying that Ludwick is a better hitter than Ryan and, therefore, is more likely to get not only 1 run home, but possibly multiple runs. The difference in the two players’ OPS and wOBA is mentioned above, as is their propensities to hit fly balls. Brendan Ryan, in his career, has hit exactly 1 sacrifice fly. Ludwick hit 8 last year alone.
The one thing we haven’t yet considered is the pitcher on the mound. Chad Qualls is, w/o a doubt, a heavy ground ball pitcher. His career GB/FB ratio is 2.37. His career GB% is 58.5%. Even the hits we had in the 9th were grounders that found holes (w/ the exception of Thurston’s bunt single). There’s little doubt that Ryan’s relative speed advantage and Qualls’ strong ground ball tendencies tilted the decision toward Ryan. Then why was Ludwick in the on-deck circle while Pujols was at the plate. It certainly wasn’t to force Qualls to pitch to Pujols, as the bases were loaded. I suppose if Pujols makes an out, it ceases to become a double play situation, right?
Still, considering all the facts we have about their likelihood to hit into a double play and their offensive abilities, the decision to go w/ Brendan Ryan in that situation is difficult to stomach. It’s almost indefensible.
In my opinion, the decision to go w/ Brad Thompson in the bottom of the inning was nearly as awful. In fact, it could’ve been worse. The team was down to just 2 relievers at the time – Thompson and Ryan Franklin, our current (gulp!) closer. Now, I’m not a big Franklin fan but he’s a damned sight better than Thompson. Franklin’s FIPs w/ the Cards are 3.96 and 4.75. Thompson’s career FIP w/ the Cards is 4.96. Tony and Duncan clearly trust Franklin more as they’ve given him the treasured 9th inning role for the time being. Then, w/ just the 2 pitchers from which to choose, why didn’t he choose the better pitcher?
One reason he went w/ Thompson is that ridiculous notion that, on the road, you save your closer for closing situations. Thompson pitches the 9th and, if the Cards take the lead in the 10th, Franklin enters for the save. What’s ridiculous about this is the possibility that you’ll lose the game w/o your best reliever still in the pen – as is what happened. By saving your closer for the save, you lose the game w/ an inferior pitcher and that makes no sense whatsoever.
Another reason this decision made no sense was b/c Tony was down to just the 2 pitchers due to Carp’s injury and 4th inning departure. Let’s say Thompson had pitched the 9th, the Cards took the lead in the 10th 7-6, and Franklin was brought in for the bottom of the 10th. Franklin then blows the save when Augie Ojeda hits a homer. Game tied, 7-7. Can you pinch hit for Franklin when his turn in the order comes up? How long do you leave your last reliever in the game? Is Kyle Lohse brought in to pitch the 12th? You have no one else to turn to and wasted Thompson by having him pitch just the 1 inning. If you go to Franklin in the 9th, he can go 3 innings and then, if necessary, you can turn to Thompson for 3+ innings, thus saving your starters. We’re almost fortunate that we didn’t take the lead in the 10th. At least we didn’t have to burn any starters in relief. This, too, was a terrible decision on Tony’s part. Going w/ Franklin is a must there b/c he’s better and b/c it saves Thompson to go multiple innings later on if necessary.
So Tony went w/ Brendan Ryan and Brad Thompson – arguably our worst position player and worst pitcher – when he could’ve chosen Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Franklin – arguably our 2nd best position player and best (in Tony’s eyes anyway) reliever. Does this make any sense to you? After Thompson gave up the winning run, he was optioned to Memphis. Is it possible that Tony was testing Ryan and Thompson to see if they could be counted on later? Maybe he treated this more as an extension of spring training than an important regular season game. (Bear with me).
It’s an early April game -- #8 on the season – against a team outside the division. Once Pujols tied the game in the 9th, the situation’s leverage index fell somewhat. It was still high, to be sure, but it was a less critical situation. Qualls is a ground ball pitcher and Ryan, though a severe ground ball hitter, does have more speed than Ludwick. Let’s see if the kid can handle it. We know that Ludwick could have. Same w/ Thompson. Both he and Ryan are fringe major leaguers at best. Let’s see if Brad can handle this situation. Perez is pitching great at Memphis so, afterward, we can send Thompson down and replace him w/ Perez. Is this a guy we’ll be able to count on later? Both Ryan and Thompson suffered epic failures but it’s better to know now that they can’t be counted on rather than finding out in July or August against the Cubs, right?
I’m not saying this was Tony’s true motivation for selecting those two b/c, in reality, we’ll never know. It’s pretty clear to me that neither were the better options in their respective situations but the season’s a marathon, not a sprint. It’s possible that he was just testing the two players. Mather’s going to be called up before too long anyway. Should Ryan or Barden be sent down when Mather’s ready? Maybe this test helped Tony make up his mind. Food for thought.
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While you are correct
in saying that we will never know Tony’s true motives for the choices he made Tues. night, I think your reasoning is very solid. Those decisions do fit a pattern that I have noticed in the past. It appears he does look at April games rather like ST games. TLR won’t lift a guy who is struggling or slumping when he come up in a critical spot in an early spring game. He will leave a pitcher in when he gets in a jam, usually a jam that the pitcher himself created. Some of these moves seem designed to build a player’s confidence in the early going, but some appear to be tests that will factor into later decisions. TLR can be like an elephant – he never forgets.
Maybe Tony picked the right guy for the job he wanted accomplished...
It was a long night for the bullpen and a long week. With Carp going down maybe Tony didn’t want to see any extra innings and was hoping Ryan would end the game thus saving some mileage on the bullpen.
He was looking to win by losing in a sense.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
if that's the case
he needs to be managing in one of our division rivals’ cities.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Well with no days off for awhile and the bullpen already beat up pretty good I could see how you don't want to go for extra innings to win 1 game.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
I thought Tony had a saying
You go for the win today, and worry about tomorrow …tomorrow
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I don't buy it.
The guys he needs to be testing right now are unfamiliar players like Thurston, Barden, Rasmus, etc. You’re telling me TLR doesn’t already know everything he needs to know about Ryan and Thompson? And if he doesn’t, tell me again why he’s given responsibility for a $90 million investment?
+1
My thoughts exactly. Ryan and Thompson have been on the roster for the better parts of three seasons now. If you don’t know what you have at that point then you’re a poor judge of talent, and Tony and Dave are not poor judges of talent.
Hell, they cut Anthony Reyes loose with less big league time than Brad Thompson, so it’s crazy to say that they don’t know what they have with Puppy Kicker.
It was a mistake, a brain fart, a momentary error in judgment. Tony doesn’t want to admit that he made a mistake because he does have his pride, like we all do, but there’s no position from which you can defend those decisions.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Man that is a LOT of effort
to excuse TLR! Heh.
You could be right, of course. OTOH, TLR is a grinder and wants to win every game, doesn’t he?
TLR does want to win EVERY game,
but it seems to me that he is willing to make certain concessions early in the season. While he is always intense, he really turns it up around the All-Star Break.
I thought he just wanted to win series
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
That 's what he says
but win or lose on Tuesday we had a chance to win the series on Wednesday, which we did.
[devils advocate]
He did want to win the game. It’s just that the people he counted on to win it failed him. It’s not Tony’s fault for putting them in a situation they were likely to fail in – it’s Thompson and Ryan’s fault for not rising to the challenges of MLB.[/da]
wow.. you’re right.. that did take a lot of effort.
by Birds on the Matt on Apr 16, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
whose fault is it?
isn’t that his job?
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not excusing Tony
they were bad decisions. I thought I made that clear. I’m trying to find a plausible explanation that no one else, seemingly, has thought of. Maybe he’s just deranged but I don’t think so.
by chuckb on Apr 16, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought your post was an interesting way of looking at it chuck
Something pretty novel that made me think, and I reckon that’s the best thing you can do when writing a blog.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 17, 2009 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Franklin VS Thompson
I believe Tony was trying to avoid using Franklin at all in Tuesday nights game. He was basically only available in an emergency situation.
Franklin pitched an inning on Apr 9th, warmed up but did not get in on the 10th, (I believe I head Al say he also warmed up on the 11th), He was loose and ready to come in during Loshe’s complete game on the 12th, and earned a save on the 13th.
As you can see he had worked 5 days in a row, so Tony was probably just wanting to use Brad Thompson til the game was over win or lose, then goto Franklin only in an emergency situation.
www.salukihoops.com
Plausible
One thing that frustrates in the general criticism of TLR (and of the FO) is many commenters’ assumption that they have all the information, when it’s most likely that they don’t. It results in a tremendous amount of attribution error.
Most often this is manifested in complaints about player injuries or the Cards’ payroll/budget (two issues where fans almost invariably are not fully informed – and in the case of injuries, often all of the information isn’t known by the principals). But it is also manifested in almost every smaller issue, like bringing in Thompson instead of Franklin. Maybe Franklin told TLR that his arm was tired and that he could only pitch in emergencies or maybe Dunc had made this determination for Franklin based on the amount of work Franklin had put in during the preceding 5 days. We just don’t have access to this information and I don’t expect TLR to broadcast this type of info to the media. There are loads of other examples – switching Jess Todd to relief, treatment of Lil’ Dunc’s, Ankiel’s, or Ludwick’s playing time, etc. etc.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 16, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree for the most part
But that still doesn’t explain pulling Ludwick out of the on-deck circle to send Brendan Ryan to the plate. That’s why I’m calling that an indefensible decision, because there simply isn’t a good answer, regardless of the level of information that I have or that Tony has, that makes any sense.
You had him in the on-deck circle with Pujols at the plate, so he’s obviously healthy enough. You didn’t send Ryan up there to squeeze because you can’t miss a squeeze sign and not run someone into an out. Ludwick is obviously the better hitter, so saying that you thought Ryan “had a better situation” just simply isn’t true, as Goold proved.
Yes, none of us have all the information necessary, but neither does Tony. A good manager will make the best decisions based on imperfect information — that’s why he’s paid so handsomely. The Ryan over Ludwick decision sends the signal that Tony didn’t have good info at all and made a poor decision that may have cost his team the game.
The speak on the Thompson issue, if our bullpen was one man short all night, then why didn’t he go to Thompson after the Carpenter injury? Or leave K-Mac in to throw at least 2 full innings, if not 3 or more? In regards to Ankiel — he’s the only guy on the team hitting under .200, but Ludwick, who’s smoked the ball whenever he’s been in the lineup has been benched twice when the team has faced 5 lefties in it’s first 10 games. Rasmus has been successful against lefties, has played well so far, and is a better defensive CF than Rick. So it does beg the question of why Ankiel, and Duncan, have played against lefties when guys like Schumaker always sit against LHP’s.
I support TLR’s decisions most of the time, and I think he makes the right decision most of the time. But I can see how some people look at the lineups and in-game decisions and wonder a bit if he’s still got it. I understand the frustrations, especially from a man that rarely admits when he’s made a mistake.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think you're on to something, Chuck
This is the most plausible scenario I’ve heard thus far. Tony does have a history of testing people early in the season. A few years ago, I remember him bringing Julian Tavarez and Cal Eldred into high leverage situations even though they were struggling because he thought he would need them later in the season and wanted to make sure he could count on them.
While I hated it at the time, those 2 relievers proved invaluable down the stretch. Do I think this was a good idea on Tuesday night? Hell, no. Tavarez and Eldred, at the time, were both new relievers to the Cardinals and Tony was seeing what he had. I think that is the distinction here. Thompson and Ryan should be known quantities at this point. They are what they are, and they are not people you want w/ the game in their hands in high leverage situations. TLR’s choices were inexplicable by any rational thinking, so I think your theory is the only one that makes ANY sort of sense at this point. Good work.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
What about the McClellan Decision
The other strange managerial decision, and this was touched upon by Red Baron, was TLR’s decision to go with McClellan after Carp went down, rather than Thompson, the supposed “long-relief” option. The only rationale I see for this is that McClellan will take Carp’s spot in the rotation, so Tony was slotting him into the 5-day cycle.
If he had used thompson initially (though the game may have turned into a blow out), Tony would have had better options in the 10th.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm ok w/ that decision
Thompson’s your 12th pitcher and the team was up 3-0. He was going to have to use all of them, but I think the right decision considering the fact that we had a lead was to try to protect it as best we could and McClellan and the rest had a better chance of doing that than Thompson. It does fly in the face of the “Let’s test Thompson and Ryan” theory but I thought it made sense then and now.
Joe Mather isn't coming up anytime soon
Mather hitting .059/.273/.390 in 22 AB’s so far in Memphis. He’d need to go on a tear to knock either Barden or Ryan off the roster. At this point Mather is nowhere near the big leagues.
Tony likes swapping Skip out to left field and inserting another MI at 2b, so he might want to keep Barden, Ryan, and Thurston all on the roster as long as possible
In Tony’s defense I will say that Brian Barden has been playing great
www.salukihoops.com
Thirsty's been playing great too
I like him over Ryan, Freese, and Barden at this point.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Mather
It’s at least encouraging that he’s taking walks and hitting for power. I mean, a .600+ OPS is hard to put together when your BA is less than .060… I think it’s only a matter of time, but you’re totally right, he ain’t ready to come back up yet.
I was thinking the same..
if he’s hitting for power AND getting on base there’s a good chance he’s hitting into bad luck that will eventually turn his way. Then again maybe he’s trying to be Adam Dunn (how many K’s?).
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoaa...
gotta back up here. .390 is his OPS, he’s slugging .118 with a double as his only hit. Still yet he’s struck out only twice and walked five times. It could very well be bad luck just waiting to turn his way.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Oops... saluki was using BA/OBP/OPS, not BA/OBP/SLG... very bad, but small sample size.
Just looked up his stats on minorleaguesplits.com. So OK, he’s not hitting for power right now either… come to think of it I’m not even sure how he would slug .390 with 1 hit. Yes, he has 1 hit so far. In 17 at-bats. I’m pretty sure that’s way too small to even bother wondering about BABIP and stuff, so we’ll just have to see what Joe Masher does over the next few weeks.
However, I did click the “neutralize for luck” option in minor league splits, and his slash lines look like this: .231/.406/.466 which is good for a .872 OPS. Who knows.
Also, minorleaguesplits is an awesome website
There are so many of these useful sites now. B-ref is great overall, fangraphs awesome added a bunch of projection data right into their stat pages, minor league splits might be tops for minor league stats (unless there is something better out there?) statcorner is awesome too. Good era to be a baseball fan.
The data there is great...
but can someone teach them how to use an xHTML editor? The information there is first rate, but I really have trouble with poorly designed websites like that one. I’d rather not know than have to type in the name of the player I’m looking for 6 times before I get a result, and then getting a headache looking through the columns that have no gridlines to separate the numbers.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
True, the site itself is not optimal
If they streamlined it and it became a nice combo of functionality and minimalist style, I wouldn’t mind that. Right now it’s kind of like Drudge Report, only with half the links not working the first time or something.
read goold's 10 at 10
Ludwick’s hitting streak is up to 18 games (rolling back to last season). Any credence to the thought that maybe TLR thought he was helping out Ludwick by protecting the streak? Tony must feel like he owes Luddy after he screwed up on the last day last year and cost him a chance at hitting .300. Thoughts?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
No, I don't think they are related
Nobody, not even Ludwick cares about an 18 game hitting streak that dates back to last year.
Ludwick would have gladly traded in that streak for a chance to hit a sacrifice fly in that spot.
www.salukihoops.com
Nope.
Well, I can’t be sure exactly why TLR did it, maybe he WAS trying to protect the streak. But if that’s the case it’s an appallingly stupid way to think. What’s Luddy’s ceiling for a hitting streak? 20 games? Does any sentient being think he’s a guy who can sustain a streak to the point of approaching a record of any kind?
If you’re interested in human motivation, I’d have to say that Luddy would get a lot more satisfaction out of knowing that his manager wants him at the plate in a game-winning situation, than that his manager wants to keep a stupid hitting streak alive. Pulling Luddy out of the on-deck circle in that case is more of an insult than anything.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
not a chance
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
I think that had a lot to do with it. Tony likes to maximize player's individual accomplishments.
And on an entire other topic, I will never read a game day log again after that one.
Plain and Simple
it was a mistake to not let Ludwick hit and it has been a mistake not to put him in the line-up everyday behind Pujols. Ludwick earned the playing time and until he proves otherwise he should be in the line-up – no excuses – it is a mangerial mistake.
The other mistakes have been in the selection of the pitching staff. Thompson over Perez was a mistake from the beginning and at least that is getting corrected.
Mather is off to a horrid start at Memphis. He seems to be lost and I would not bet on him every making it back. On the other hand Craig continues to hit just like he did in the spring. Freese has done very little with his opportunity and is only going to play sparingly because of Thurston and Barden. Thurston is your starter against RH pitching and at this point Barden should get the nod against lefties. I think the need is simply for a RH bat to hit – they don’t need a defensive replacement. The best RH bat to hit is clearly Craig. I hope he gets a shot – he may not earned like Ludwick by winning the right field silver slugger award, but he has earned it if Freese doesn’t start getting some hits.
strong words on Mather there
you wouldn’t bet on him EVER making it back? thats pretty tough.
I do agree that Craig should get a shot VERY SOON to replace Barden/Ryan on the bench. Craig has been hitting great and can play corner IF/OF. We need another right handed power bat badly on this bench.
I feel like Freese has been screwed. He should have been starting regularly to let him get into a rythme and see if he can handle the job. Thurston and Barden certainly aren’t going to be our 3rdbaseman long term. I am confident Freese has he bat to play in the majors.
Milt Thompson FTW!
agreed
I’d love to see Craig up too, but freese deserves a bit of a better run than he’s got at 3B. The frequency with which Mather (not a 3B) was trotted out to man the hot corner early in ST before he got ill and his swing fell apart suggests to me that the organisation isn’t THAT high on freese, but the guy deserves more consistent playing time as he’s the only “genuine” 3B on the roster.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Freese hasn't earned the time
Freese is being given chances. He’s not capitalizing. Instead, he’s seemed totally over-matched in every at bat I’ve seen. I’m losing confidence.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Not totally over-matched, IMO
He has had some good PAs. Keep in mind that he has had 18 “at-bats” and has had 3 hits. He’s 3-for-18, for a horrid-appearing .187 BA. Allow me to channel Crash Davis:
Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week – just one – a gorp… you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes… you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week… and you’re in Yankee Stadium.
If Freese, who has had a few solid hits find outfielder leather, had a mere two more hits, he’d be 5-for-18 and hitting .277. Give him one more and he’s 6-for-18, a .333 BA. I think that is an overly harsh assessment of Freese at this very early juncture. For TLR or the organization to judge his value to the big club on his body of work as of right now would ill-advised. Another way to put it: Should we annoint Thurston as the full-time third baseman because of his hot start? This is the small sample size time of year. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played without Troy Glaus and we shouldn’t jump to conclusions one way or the other so early.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Exactly what I was thinking
Which of course makes one wonder if the whole month of April and part of May is going to be (or should be) laboratory time for LaRussa? Will he jump to dumb early conclusions or keep experimenting? And which would be more frustrating?
+1
on thurston and his .643 BABIP
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Laboratory time?
Oh, absolutely. We’ve already had a different lineup every game and that will continue. My best is that TLR will not duplicate a lineup once in the month of April.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Arguably our 2nd best position player?
Not sure its much of a contest. Maybe someday Rasmus will be able to take that away from Ludwick, but now he’s no doubt our 2nd best position player.
Milt Thompson FTW!
one of these days, just once
I want to hear Tony say I blew the call. My bad. Of course Ludwick should have hit in that situation. In the heat of the moment, I thought Brendan Ryan’s speed trumped Ludwick’s stick but, on reflection, yes indeed that was a stupid decision. Everybody makes a mistake and Cardinal nation surely would forgive someone who manned up and admitted error.
by jjray on Apr 16, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
my thought exactly
I generally tend to side with mgr in these specific decisions – who starts, who pinch-hits, etc. I am much less likely to criticize because I believe there is alot of on-the-spot inside info that we don’t have -someone doesn’t feel well, a conversation with someone, etc……I even give TLR a pass for testing someone early in the season or even playing a flat out hunch with no stats to back it.
BUT pinch-hitting Ryan in that situation over Ludwick – especially given the outcome – was WRONG
Now being graceful, I’ll still give TLR a pass except I’d just once like to hear him say….“You know, here’s why I really did it and I was wrong”
Cardinal Nation would love him (not that he cares) alot more if he did little things of transparency and humility more often.
LaRussa did acknowledge that it was wrong
From Goold’s 10 at 10 yesterday:
La Russa said. "It didn’t work. Wrong again."
My problem is that he was able to talk himself into thinking that it is ever a better idea to pinch hit Brendan Ryan than Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded in a critical situation.
Well...
The game was tied, and the odds were decent that Ryan would make contact and drive in the run.
Yes, Ludwick’s odds were better – and if the game hadn’t been tied we certainly would have seen him pinch hit.
what does "decent" mean? better than MY chances? brendan does not have a good OBP.
chuck went to great lengths to prove that brendan was NOT a good option at that time, that he was highly unlikely to hit a sac fly. you can’t just wave away a well-developed argument and say brendan is “decent.”
it’s immaterial to say somebody has a “decent” chance if there’s somebody who is better. we could have taken braden looper on a free agent contract and left wainwright in middle relief. that decision would not become defensible because looper is “decent.”
and i have no idea why you would pinch hit ludwick if the game weren’t tied, but not when it was. i don’t understand that comment at all.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Apr 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good to hear.
And of course, “Wrong again” is all we should expect. He can’t say the kind of thing that we would say, e.g., “Brendan Ryan should never get ABs ahead of Luddy,” because of course Ryan IS HIS EMPLOYEE and you can’t just throw the kid under the bus.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting development
Looks like Xavier Nady might be out for the year with a right elbow injury. He was just put on the DL and the Yanks don’t look optimistic. That leaves them with an OF of Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Melky Cabrera. Swisher is hitting really well right now, but Cabrera and Gardner are nothing to be excited about, especially w/ the money they spent this winter. If Ank ever starts hitting, this could be a possible destination towards the deadline, cuz if there is one thing that we can be certain about, the Yanks will be shopping.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
I was connecting those same dots last night.
Start warming up the phone to NY.
Milt Thompson FTW!
I'd love it if we got Hughes
Isn’t going to happen, though.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
How about Ian Kennedy?
"A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
by Futility Infielder on Apr 16, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
No thanks
I think he’s a AAAA pitcher. He doesn’t have the stuff nor the control to make it at the big league level.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
not too high on kennedy
he wouldn’t be a bad haul for 3/4 months of a slightly above-average CF, but I don’t see him as higher than a #5 (if that) at present, and don’t think his ceiling is any higher than boggs/walters, who look like back-end-of-the-rotation options really. He’d be an OK depth option (and he’d be a good back-up for carp injuries) but I’m not wild about him. Average stuff, poor control.
Hughes, meanwhile, probably has middle-of-the-rotation promise. I could see him being Kyle Lohse with more K’s in a couple of years, and at worst he’d be an upgrade over pinata. But since they didn’t want to give him up to get Santana, I can’t see him being dealt straight up for Ankiel. Maybe if we threw in Brian Anderson we’d have a shot.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Boston's Groundball Master(son)
I would trade anybody in the system for Justin Masterson, who is currently being used in the ‘pen by the Red Sox. I have even caught the TradeDuncantoSanFranforYoungPitchingTheyNeedaLefthandedHittingFirstBaseman disease. I’ve convinced myself that Anderson could be the centerpiece of a trade for Masterson. His GB% is 54 percent and his K/9 is pretty sick. Plus, he has good control.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Oops
I would trade anybody in the system for Masterson, except for the Walrus.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I'd even trade Wallace
I just have an inkling he’s not going to stick and third and he’s going to be worse than Duncan in the outfield defensively. I’m just not sure he can hit that much to offset it — and he’s not going to play 1B with the Cardinals, so he really doesn’t have a position if he can’t stay at third.
The Red Sox are in the final year of Mike Lowell’s deal and could move Youkilis to third base to make room for Wallace. They could also DH him since Papi looks to be on the decline. They do have Lars Anderson but he’s a bit farther away than Wallace and probably projects as a DH. If we traded Wallace and Anderson for Masterson and one of their other prospects, like Michael Almanzar or Daniel Bard, I would not be upset with that trade at all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I would
not for any rational reason, but just because I’ve become attached to the hype surrounding the Walrus
So you'd turn him back into a starter?
I’m assuming he was a starter at some point… heard the name a few times but I was unfamiliar with him. Looks pretty interesting.
He should be starting in Boston
Why he’s in their bullpen I have no idea. He will probably be getting all of Dice-K’s starts while he’s on the shelf. Wakefield looked good last night, but he seems like the ultimate long reliever to me because he can pitch multiple days.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't know
they also have Clay Buchholz. I think he has more upside than Masterson. I would trade anyone in the system for Buchholz.
I disagree
I think Masterson’s better, but then I’m a fan of sinkerball pitchers too. Masterson’s GB rate is better than Buchholz and his peripherals seem to be better at the high minors levels.
The Sox may feel that he can’t handle the workload as a starter, but I think that they’re wrong. Either guy would be a good option, but if I had my choice I’d take Masterson.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I would take Masterson over Buchholz as well
But I’m not sure the Red Sox would trade him. He’s been very valuable to them.
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
Two other things from the ninth Tuesday night...
that have probably been discussed ad nauseum.
Why didn’t Oquendo send Skip on Albert’s single? I thought he had a chance to score there.
If you’re going to pinch hit your worst hitter because of his speed, why not go for the squeeze? Can Ryan not lay down a bunt?
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
Only one out
no reason to run into another out when we realistically only needed a ball in play to get skip home.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Skip would have been thrown out by 10 feet
Upton was coming in, was probably 30 feet off of the infield, and has an absolute cannon for an arm.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
explanation was
from oquendo, skip didn’t get a good jump. Thats the only reason to hold him in that situation because the way that play developed, he should’ve been scoring. There’s no way a four hopper through the infield shouldn’t take long enough for a guy with even average speed to score from second.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
That was exactly my thought...
“There’s no way a four hopper through the infield shouldn’t take long enough for a guy with even average speed to score from second.”
I knew for sure Skippy was scoring on the play until…he didn’t. I understood Barden not scoring on Rasmus’s punch, cause it was SMOKED through the hole…but Pujols hit barely more than a dribbler that should have easily score Schu. I wondered if Skip got a bad jump, but I never saw a replay of his running on that play.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus late in games
Am I the only one who thinks he seems to get really locked in when it’s close-and-late? He seems to just smoke the ball in these situations (of which I think I’ve seen two examples of)?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I have been uber-impressed with Colby so far.
Forget slow starting (though he is SLG .286). 6 walks already!! I love this kid!
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
.382 OBP
Great table-setter for Pujols, Ludwick, and Duncan or Ankiel.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Ankiel hah hah hah
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Streak player
Ankiel is a streaky hitter. He’s drawn a few walks the last couple of games and will probably rip off a few games in a row of otherworldly OPSing. He will lay waste to Wrigley. (Or, so I hope.)
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
he is a streaker
without a doubt
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He needs to grow that beard extra long, ZZ Top style
Then he could streak but still cover up the jumblies so they don’t get cold.
I'd settle for Sutter-long
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I think Perez
should go for this look
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think perez needs to cut his hair.
whatever he’s got going on doesn’t work well for him and, i think, makes him look as far from intimidating as he possibly could
The way for Perez to look intimidating
is to strike out 2 out of every 3 batters he faces, have a sub-2 ERA and FIP, etc. Mariano Rivera would look intimidating in a tutu
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 16, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Molina's walk-rate has been super-impressive so far too
He’s walking, AND hitting for power (doubles, plus a triple and a dinger). Am I the only one who thinks, far from 2008 being a fluke BABIP year, that Molina might’ve actually improved his hitting from last year? The plate discipline is, in my eyes, hugely encouraging.
If he can walk a bit more, and thus get a few more pitches down the pipe & become a consistent 10-15HR hitter, even with a .260-270 average he’s going to be a very valuable catcher.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 17, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions
oquendo got torn up on these boards for doing the opposite a few games back
and running yadi into an out at home, with pujols coming up.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
thats different he ran him into out #3 with our best hitter left hitting the next inning with no one on
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep...
I believe that was with two outs and AP on deck, right? BIG difference there. IF they throw Skip out you still have a very fast runner on third (Rasmus) and AP on second (who might score on an infield hit :)). If Skip got a bad jump, then I can except that excuse…though I’m not happy with Skip getting a bad jump on a ground ball with the bases loaded.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
and you can no longer score on a sac fly with two outs.
i’m pretty sure second-and-third with two outs has a much lower probability of scoring a run than bases loaded with one out.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
It absolutely does
If he’d send Skip and Skip had been thrown out by 10 feet, then everyone would be bitching about why he sent Skip in the first place. Remember that it’s Pujols who hit the four hopper and I’ve never seen him hit a “seeing eye ground ball” — that ball got Upton quickly and he had already been playing shallow. With his speed and arm he probably plays the shallowest right field in the league.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Seems to me
that the real blunder was not inserting Thompson when Carp left the game. If you are going to insist on carrying a guy whose primarily skill is he can be a “long guy” then why would you burn through your entire pen instead of bringing in the long guy? At first I thought they were going to have McClellan go as long as he could and then insert him in Carp’s spot in the rotation, but that was apparently never considered. I really don’t understand using all the pitchers in a night game before a day game that was going to be pitched by Joel Pineiro.
Seems like TLR just was completely flummoxed by Carp’s injury. Not a good way for your manager to react.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Tony had a bad day
We all make mistakes when our mind’s are not focused. Tony was frustrated over the Carp injury.
This is not an excuse. He should have been able to focus, but this speaks to the human element of baseball.
www.salukihoops.com
by salukihoops on Apr 16, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Words from the esquire's own mouth, though
The very reason Das WunderBrad made the club out of Spring Training was for that very situation, according to TLR. He wanted a “long reliever” in case a starter was chased early in a start (or, presumably, in case one was injured). This demands the question as to why, then, TLR did not go to his annointed long-reliever in the very situation he is on the team to pitch in.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Lack of faith in Thompson?
Were that the case, why is he on the roster at all… ah well. I hate to admit it, but trying to figure out what the hell Tony is thinking is sometimes almost kinda fun… or it would be if it weren’t so silly and maddening.
McClellen was supposed to be stretched out where he could go a few innings
If that had happened Thompson wouldn’t have been necessary at all. I think the lack of faith in Thompson is exactly the problem. Except KMac also failed.
He's the 5th Starter and It's his turn
Per MLB.com, he was skipped the first time through:
Marshall was feeling confident this spring when he won the fifth-starter spot. He was skipped in the first turn through the rotation but did make two relief appearances last weekend in Milwaukee. One of the plus sides to starting is that he’ll be on a regular routine.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus, he's a lefty,
So why wouldn’t you put him up against us? Our weakness is obvious to everyone.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Lefty pitchers = kryptonite to Cardinal hitting
by cardsgirl95 on Apr 16, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Colb Œrasmus will just have to take walks in front of Albert's dingers
rack up six to eight runs, that should put us in a good position.
yeah, duh, sorry
Didn’t realize the Cubs hadn’t needed the 5th starter yet this season.
Tony, Tony
I was at the game in Phoenix Tuesday night. Living in Santa Fe, games in Arizona and Colorado are naturals for me. It is clear to me that TLR pulled Ludwick, after the game became tied, to save Ludwick for extra innings, should that happen. I think it was a snap decision that he probably regretted later. Regret is a feeling that you would be hoping for here, since putting Ryan out there instead of Ludwick was flat out wrong.
The Thompson thing – I got no idea; Tony may have been so flummoxed by his earlier fuck up that he just dropped the ball.
That game was one of the hardest to watch in my fifty plus years as a Cardinal fan. Let’s be thankful it’s behind us, and go get those Cubbies.
The Ludwick thing keeps reminding me of 2007 all-star game
for obvious reason. Except “this one counts!” for our actual regular season record.
Thompson's role
I’m on board with the people who think Thompson should have came in after Carp went down. If he could have got through 3 innings, then the bullpen can work in their regular roles. While we are all talking about how bad Thompson is, he only let one run in the 1.2 innings he pitched (even though every ball they hit was a rocket!). If he could have went 3 and let 2 runs, we would’ve been ahead 4-2 with Motte, McClennan, and Franklin ready to go in their comfort zones.
With that being said, I am glad that Perez is up and we’re going to see what Walters has soon.
Heck, even two innings
But, lets not sugar-coat his performance. We easily could have lost in the 9th.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
He'd have given up our 3 run lead
I think you go w/ your best guys and try to preserve the lead. Thompson wouldn’t have done that. Now, I never thought he should’ve been on the roster either, but I still would rather have McClellan in there in a 3-0 game than Thompson. If we’re down by 3, maybe Thompson. Up by 6 — Thompson.
Perhaps my perception is too clouded
I’m still lacking confidence in McClellan after the end of last season and Spring Training. I’m unconvinced of his ability to be effective for more than an inning at this point. Nonetheless, I see what you are saying. But, heading into the Chicago series, I would have tried to avoid stretching the ‘pen like what wound up happening. Perhaps we could have held onto a lead through the sixth. In the fourth, the D-Backs sent up Clark, Young, and Montero, their 5-6-7-hitters. In the fifth, Thompson would have faced the slumping Upton, a PHer (Reynolds, who wound up homering off of McClellan), and then the top of the order. You are right to say that Thompson very well could have blown the lead, but, if you are going to use Das WunderBrad, wouldn’t you want to use him against the lower part of Arizona’s order?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Has The Idea Been Raised...
that La Russa did not intend on winning this game once it was tied up and entering extras? I know this sounds a little stupid and I’m not meaning it in a conspiracy sense against La Russa, but I legitimately feel that he would find it more beneficial to the team to sacrifice the win to avoid a long, extra innings affair given our rigorous schedule this month.
With Carp going out early, the bullpen was screwed and he knew he’d have to bring up someone from Memphis to supplement what was going to be a tired pen. The issue comes down to the fact that we’ve only got one day off coming up and that’s not near enough, this team is going to be a little beat entering May.
Hey, La Russa says play a hard nine, not a hard ten.
That might explain pitching Thompson...
but Ludwick could have made it a nine inning game instead of ten.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
he does just like to win series
he doesn’t usually go all in for the sweep
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The biggest mistake in judgment in Tuesday's game
Chris Carpenter was guilty of the biggest mistake in judgment in Tuesday’s game, by far. When he felt pain throwing, he pushed on through. He may well have aggravated what was a slight strain, one that might have led to missing one or two starts, into a strain that could lead to his losing two months.
From Derrick Goold in today’s Post-Dispatch: “When he grounded out to third base in the fourth inning Tuesday, he felt a tug near his rib cage. Carpenter attempted to warm up for the bottom of the inning, but each throw hurt more.”
Why does the Cardinal trainer not make it a practice to instill the practice in all players that if a motion hurts and if the pain INCREASES with each repetition, it is imperative to STOP immediately and consult the trainer? The principle to apply in such situations is, one that guides every doctor and every paramedic: DO NO HARM.
I detested LaRussa’s pulling Ludwick back so that Brendan Ryan could bat, but that move risked losing just one game. Carpenter’s move may cost three or four games, depending on how his replacement does….
I don't know...
I think if there’s some soreness you try and see if you can work it out. How many warm-ups did he throw? Less than ten I’m sure at less than full intensity. I think anybody’s gonna go out and throw a little to see where they’re at. With it being a Rib Cage Strain (not confirmed) I’d say the damage was already done, and his warm-ups probably didn’t worsen the injury.
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
$10 million
for a better medical staff and trainers, even if they’re up in the boxes with binoculars. I find it ridiculous that we can’t scrounge up experts in a town with several world-famous medical research institutions. The catcher should not be the first guy to notice something is wrong.
Think of the money saved.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Great post, Chuck!
But unfortunately my therapist and I have decided its best I don’t think about this scenario any further. It will be best for everyone, she says…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
by nomar34 on Apr 16, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
i think we have the same shrink
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Someone said the the game thread.
When its the late innings on te road, you have to play for the win.
I agree completely, and I don’t think that TLR really did. Even once Ryan struck out he could have PH ankiel who is not only not hitting the ball well, but severly lacks the late inning clutch gene. Then someone said to me.
You have to save position players for extras
Okay so what do we use them for in extras, injury, we still had Larue on the bench and he could play first and APu could play second again. You have Lud Schu and Raz in the OF and Barden Greene on the IF until one got hurt if it was an OF Thurston could play out there in an emergency.
We only had one pitcher in the pen so we didn’t need to PH and if we did WW was sitting there and we all know what he can do with the bat.
In conclusion there is no reason Ludwick did not see the field.
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions
The second comment really makes the point for keeping Ryan
because he can always play the outfield and can play all three infield positions in case of injury. It makes no sense to keep Ludwick for extras because he has no utility as a bench player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
trade ludwick
if he isn’t going to play everyday he is much more valuable as a trade chip.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
Chill...
I think everyone needs to chill on the outfield situation. A couple weeks ago it was send Rasmus down if he isn’t going to play everyday. I have heard trade Ludwick, a couple times now. With the outfielders we currently have I expect they are going to settle into a rotation where everyone plays three out of four days with Colby taking the position of the player on rest. The outfield is goint to work itself out pretty easily.
by BigJawnMize on Apr 16, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
chill out with the "chill", dude
all i’m saying is ludwick is an extremely valuable player. we should maximize that value by either playing him or by trading him for something we need.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That make no sense
and is a knee jerk reaction. Luddy platooned for most of the first half of the season in 2008 and ended up with 550 PA’s. He’ll get 600 PA’s this year barring injury.
It’s a really nice problem to have four outfielders on the roster that can all make statements for playing time. This isn’t a zero sum game — Luddy has value even if he does sit once and a while. Trading him makes no sense at all if you’re basing that on him not starting a couple of games.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
yes, it does make sense for luddy to sit once in a while
but it does not make sense for him to sit more often than all of our other outfielders (look at games and PAs).
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's a good point.
I’ll admit, I’m starting to waffle a bit on this. I’m coming around to the idea of a lab setting for a while. But, it needs to be temporary. And I’d also like Ludwick to get more PAs and starts than the other three. I realize it would be difficult to rotate the other three into two spots by starting Ludwick everyday, but I think he at least needs to be playing somewhat more than the other, not less.
Situation
Again, we faced three RHPers with bizarrely pronounced platoon splits. If this same thing had occurred during a 10-game span in July, I doubt that we’d have even noticed. However, since we are two weeks into the long season, these lineup decisions stick out more. I am okay with the outfield shuffling so far. What’s more, we’ve scored a far amount of runs in the games where we have started the three lefthanded batsmen in the OF: 9 vs. Pitt, 11 vs. Hou, and then 6 vs. AZ,
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
i take your point
i just hope that if ludwick continues to prove himself to tony, he takes his rightful place in the lineup. i have a feeling that, had we traded for matt holliday, he would be playing more often than luddy is.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you on Holliday
And I think that is unfortunate. But, I have full faith (however misplaced) that Ludwick will get 600 PAs, hit 35+ HR, and drive in 100+ runs. I think that TLR’s inclination to play the splits influenced his decisionmaking and I can’t really disagree with it. It was effective. However, there is no defense for TLR PHing Ryan over Ludwick. None.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Also good points.
I guess what I should have said more explicitly above is that I’m currently in a “wait and see” attitude. I realize the sample size issues. What I meant was, I hope that by the end of the lab phase, Ludwick ends up with the lion’s share of playing time, so we can see what the other three bring to the table but still get our best OF the bulk of the playing time. I’m assuming here that Ludwick still is and still will be our best overall OF, which I think is a decent assumption.
Experiment
It’s past time for TLR to shift Ludwick to LF, play Ankiel in RF, and Rasmus in CF vs. a LHP.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The season is young
Ludwick is going to get about 600 PAs again this year, just like he did in 2008. It doesn’t get much more “full-time starter” than that. We started the season off with quite a few games against starters with a severe L/R platoon split. Even though Ludwick has an odd reverse split and hits righties slightly better than lefties, I don’t blame TLR for going with an all lefthanded OF for those games. Also remember Ludwick’s injury history. This is a guy whose only question was not ability, but health, so limiting his exposure is not necessarily entirely bad. That said, I will reiterate. He is going to get about 600 PAs this season, just like Albert Pujols. We will benefit from Ludwick’s value this year because he is going to dig into the box many a time and rake the ball all over the yard.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Exactly!
No team needs four good outfield options. Let’s just trade one and that way we won’t have to worry about who’s hot, who’s pitching, lefty-righty splits, resting players, defensive replacements, etc. And, obviously, there’s no risk that one of the remaining three will get injured.
It’ll all be so simple once a trade happens.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Apr 16, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
"No team needs four good outfield options."
I think the Yankees would disagree with you today.
by arch support on Apr 16, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Oops
Sorry. Didn’t recognize the sarcasm till I read it a second time.
by arch support on Apr 16, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
i'll tell you who has a hot bat
ryan ludwick
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So...the team would have scored eleventy billion runs the other night
just because Ludwick was in the lineup? They scored 6 runs without him, which is more than enough to win most games.
We get it, you want him to play every day. Even Albert gets a few days off a year, and the reason for him being on the bench is that lefties really pound Scherzer and righties struggle against him. Look at the box score from the other night — Duncan and Rasmus both played well, Ankiel was the one that struggled, but even he had two walks. Relax dude, it’s still very early in the season and Tony is playing around with lineups and seeing what hand he’s been dealt.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
yes, that is exactly what i am saying
ludwick should play 9 positions every night and relieve every pitcher. he should toss batting practice, shag fly balls, and catch bullpen sessions.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
All I'm saying is that you're overreacting
especially compared to the results when he hasn’t been in the lineup so far. The Cardinals have scored 9, 11, and 6 runs respectively when Ludwick hasn’t started in the outfield. It’s really hard to ignore those results.
I was pounding the warpath last June when he was being platooned with an awful hitting Chris Duncan while posting two of the best non-Pujols months a Cardinal has put together in the last 5 years. But to say that we should “play him or trade him” is simply an overreaction.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
This team is going to score a lot of runs if they keep this up.
Seriously, y’all are going to get 25 cent drinks a lot this year. Colby and Rick aren’t hitting and Santa isn’t even back in the lineup yet. I’m excited for the rest of the year, at least on the offensive side of the game.
by mattisnotfrench on Apr 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Second in the league in OBP
with one of the top 15 OBP’s in the league last year on the shelf. My worry is that there are some streaky hitters (Ankiel, Molina, Skip, even Ludwick was streaky last year) and that if they all hit slumps at the same time like they did last year the Cards are going to be in trouble when that happens.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Crap. I just now realized it's an afternoon game.
Seriously. How am I gonna get anything done this afternoon? I know I am not the only person thinking this…
Yeah I have a test to take
but it seems its lucky when I am not on here for the GT 3-0 versus 3-3
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
You are NOT the only person thinking this
And I have more work than I care to think about on my plate the next two days, and both games are in the afternoon.
Fuck day baseball at Wrigley.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Lineup
Per Leach:
1. Ryan 2B
2. Ankiel CF
3. Pujols 1B
4. Ludwick RF
5. Molina C
6. Duncan LF
7. Greene SS
8. Barden 3B
9. Wainwright P
Wow. Where to begin?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
How about the no. 2 slot, too?
How many times will Pujols bat with the bases empty today? Four is my guess.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
3 times
one of them will draw a walk in one of their 8 PA’s.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Ryan vs. LHPers in 2009
1-for-9 with a HBP. So, it would seem to be more probable than Ryan walking today.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
This doesn't surprise me
It’s obvious that Ankiel is going to play until he’s hitting .100 on May 15th.
Why is Duncan in the lineup against a lefty? His splits are nearly as bad as Schu’s and Skip always gets benched, why not Chris too?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Chris has been hitting lefties well lately.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
For that matter
so has Skip…I think he’s 1 for 1 against lefties this year, lol.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Don't like Ryan leading off
but I kinda like Ankiel in the 2 hole. I just have this feeling he’s about to break out. (if I feel that way all season, I’m bound to be right some of the time)
I just hope Wainwright is a little more sharp today
1-2 Punch(less)
Ryan has a career line of .265/.325/.342/.667 (but his OBP was .307 last season and is .285 this young season). He hits lefties to a tune of .304/.364/.368/.732 over his career, but only managed a .325 OBP vs. them last season. Ryan’s post-2007 decline is probably reflective of his true ability level, meaning his career splits vs. LHP might be overly rosy (he’s 1-for-9 with a HBP vs. LHPers this year so far).
For his career, Ankiel has hit .242/.286/.465/.751 versus LHP. His ISO OBP of 44 means he is very, very unlikely to draw a walk in a PA today.
Why are they the visitors’ 1-2 punch today within the ivied walls of Wrigley?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Shutout
I’m calling it right now
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 16, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone know the weather forecast
are the wrigley winds howling?
Chuck Norris doesn't need a bat.
he just roundhouse kicks the ball out of the park.
by bearcatcardfan on Apr 16, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the current weather in Chitown:
Current conditions
As of 10:51 AM CDT
at Chicago Midway, Illinois
Clear
Temperature: 58°
Wind: Calm
Dewpoint: 35°
Humidity: 42%
Visibility: 10.0 miles
by cardsgirl95 on Apr 16, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
usually they're howling in at this time of year
if they are howling at all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Good answer
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 16, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
but not what you meant
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 16, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
i think i begin and end at:
F* you, tony.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
well, Greene at 7 is good
other than that, wtf?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
i do
we got luddy, pujols, and dunc
ank in the 2 slot should help him get going
and we got wainwright on the mound
lots of love to go around
yeah
it’s not really as bad as it looks
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I have it figured out
TLR wanted his two weakest links off the team as soon as possible, so he put them into situations where they would look bad, making it easier for him to dispose of them
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions
Is that why Ryan is starting 2B and batting leadoff today?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I doubt very much that Moz
needs any convincing that Ryan and Thompson ought to be replaced. I’ll bet he’s been pitching those 2 names at everyone who calls, including his dry cleaner.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
he'll probably get
three suit cleanings tops, for those two
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 16, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
"Bag of moth balls"
Hilarious…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why is this a "test for Luhnow"
Bernie’s article today bugs me (although maybe it is just the headline). I realize that Luhnow has responsibility for the minor leagues, but ownership and Moz bear a lot of the responsibility that the only options right now are Walters and Boggs. Unless Luhnow went to them and said, “hey don’t sign any more starters because we’ve got you covered with Boggs, Walters, Ottavino, et al” I don’t think it is fair to say that this is a test of Luhnow. Maybe it is a test of the starting pitching depth in the minors (which I will admit is thin) but it is not a referendum on whether or not Luhnow is doing a good job. Or am I being too easy on Luhnow?
Bernie is frustrating
He has now fallen down on the TLR/Strauss “win now at all costs” side of this false debate. Edmonds, Rolen, Chris Carpenter and Troy Glaus show why we can’t afford to depend on older, more injury-prone veterans at the cost of a barren farm system. Luhnow has already passed the test.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
not a big fan of bernie's
he seems to step into the reactionary mouth breather sports writer role too much for my taste
when he doesn’t, he’s not too bad though
Is it clear yet where the Todd-to-the-bullpen decision primarily lay?
I haven’t seen that information anywhere, so I’m just curious.
Bernie must think
he has to do a certain amount of sucking up to the most rabid know-nothings on his message boards. I wish he’d take them on more aggressively (though sometimes he does). OTOH we don’t want him driving them away because they might end up here!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If they came here
sure, there’d be some inital chaos. But then a select few would see the light and be baptised in the cool waters of baseball enlightenment. Like me!
How about you start worrying about winning the game you are playing
Tony and stop trying to win a game in June today?
That’s the most frustrating. Hell, I think I’m going to start a running fanpost of the games the Cardinals piss away this year. I’ll call it ‘The other 42’ as in the 42 games that decide whether you lose 90 or win 90.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2009 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
now that is something I'd like to see
especially after last season
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
What I hate is those Sunday
games when all of a sudden 3 or more of the regulars get their day off all at the same time. I’ve never understood that.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Why boog is the lineup today
Al From BCB:
“Of the current Cardinals, only Brendan Ryan and Ryan Ludwick have homered off Marshall.”
Damn small sample sizes. I really hate Ankiel in the lineup against Marshall.
by cloistermaximus on Apr 16, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions
who knows
maybe boog will redeem himself… but probably with the glove
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Outfield rotation scheme
Why doesn’t Tony use a formula like this, to honor the fact that Ludwick is clearly the most productive outfielder at this point (until Rasmus adjusts to MLB, at least):
In every 7 games, the team needs 3 outfield starts per game = 21 OF starts
6 starts for Ludwick
5 each for the other 3 outfielders
If getting a day off now and then is so important, then why doesn’t Tony take at least one day off per week and let Oquendo manage the team on occasion…?
by CardsWin on Apr 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for putting actual numbers to it
As bgh pointed out, maybe weird matchups just skewed the early, small sample sized batch of games we’ve seen so far. Something like this sounds very reasonable to me.
How many times will Ankiel strike out today?
If this goes extras, can he do it 8 times?
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions
of course not. he will have been switched out for joe thurston by that point.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I pray you are right
I pray his bat actually touches the ball for the first time this season.
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
better question
how many pitches will he see/strikeout? lets set the over/under at 2.5.
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
Somehow I feel confident in the under
He’ll swing at Marshall’s breaking ball twice
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Apr 16, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
if there's one game ank plays in this series
this should be the one
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are they reading the lineup?
Why do I have to listen to it?
by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions
somehow I forgot about the blackout restrictions
thought I was going to be watching this game :(
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately I have watched too many games end in a Cardinal loss with Tony’s best pinch-hitter still sitting on the bench, bat in hand. On the other hand, I thought using Thompson in that situation was a no-brainer. He is your long man where Franklin would be good for two innings at most and then probably unavailable the next day. I am also a believer that the last three outs of a ballgame are the toughest three outs to get. If you use Franklin and don’t score before he must be pulled who are you left with. Obviously there are two ways to play it but I gotta side with Tony on the way he handled the staff in that extra inning heartbreaker.
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