My man crush aside, ank too expensive, and plenty of fill in options, so no need for a FA LF. I’m counting on skip, although I think he is into arb and might cost a little more. Speaking of expensive arbitration if Ludwick dominates again he won’t exactly be cheap and a solid year out of Duncan will probably mean a decent raise as well. Then there are raises for Carpenter, Lohse, Yadi, Waino, Franklin, and Reyes that total almost 6 mil. Those raises will probably eat up most if not all of Glaus’s expiring contract. If Garcia/Boggs/etc. can take Pinero’s spot, then that frees up their (jo-el and welly) 11mil for a FA starting pitcher (If 2 stick then that money gets freed up for elsewhere, however if none do then that money gets split in half looking for 2 pitchers.) Anderson can replace Larue at backup catcher. The bullpen can pretty much stay the same, with a fill in or 2 from the minors, and miller or someone like him for his spot. That leaves SS, If Greene plays well (decent defense w/ 2007 offensive numbers with a little better OBP) I have a feeling he will be looking for a big contract. If he doesn’t play that well, then we don’t want him. Not sure if there are any great FA SS available, but this is a place I wouldn’t mind spending money. Not sure if any teams would be willing but this might be a good place to dump a dozen prospects that we are not gonna be able to protect in the rule 5 this winter. What would be perfect would be if we could find a midyear salary dump of a player signed through 2010 in which the other team would pay part of the contract and want prospects in return (SS or SP). I suppose a lot could happen between now and then and hopefully they will be suffering from a Champaign hangover.

Wellemeyer will probably be gone, as he’ll be a free agent in a light pitching market. If he has a year similar to last year he’s going to command $8-$10M per year. When you consider that the cream of next years crop of starters (Lackey, Harden, Bedard, Hudson, Webb, Schmidt) either do or have had injury concerns, an innings eater who could be better than average is going to get paid because he’ll have a lot of offers.

I don’t see the Cardinals signing a left fielder — Duncan would be in his second year of arbitration, so he’d still be relatively cheap if healthy and productive. You also have Jones, Jay, Craig, Mather, and Barton all competing for that spot in the spring next year. Come to think of it, with all the kids they have in the outfield, it would make a lot of sense for the Cards to trade Duncan in the offseason for young starting pitcher, assuming he’s healthy all of 2009 and OPS’s around .850 or better.

I hope Wallace sticks at 3B, but I’m not holding my breath. The problem is that if he doesn’t, I think the Cardinals would be best to package him with John Jay and Brian Anderson and try to get back a top flight starter or pitching prospect. If both of those guys have amazing years in AAA this year, I can see a team like the Giants willing to part with someone like Cain or Bumgarner to get back three players that they could plug in right away. Neither Wallace or Jay really have a future in this organization if Wallace can’t stick at third. We already have a great CF prospect, so Jay is redundant. All that said, I wouldn’t trade Daryl Jones at all right now — he might be the most underrated prospect in all of baseball.

You have to hope the Jaime Garcia comes back from surgery successfully to be a #4 starter and that one of Walters, Mortenson, or Boggs can be a #5 starter next year. If so the Cardinals should look to target a #1 or #2 starter to bolster the rotation (my personal favs are Sheets, Penny, and Bedard if they are all healthy). If you can bolster the rotation by trading an outfielder or three that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Depending on how Kozma and Tyler Greene do this year, the team could possibly need a simple stopgap at SS, like Jack Wilson for a year at $5M or so (or maybe not if Greene can prove he can hit). If Kozma doesn’t look to be ready by 2011 or looks like a complete bust (and we really should know by the end of this year) and Greene’s bat doesn’t improve, the Cards are going to have to start looking for a long term replacement at SS by making a trade for someone like Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, or a minor league SS who is blocked. I don’t think that Khalil is really an option: If he has a good season, someone will sign him for big $$$ and I’d just as soon not get in a bidding war for a bounceback player; if he has another 2008 this year (let’s hope not) I certainly don’t want to bring him back for another go around.

Duncan, Anderson, and whoever else it would take to get a top OF or SP. I would love to get Holliday. I know he has an expiring contract but people would love him here in St. Louis and just look at the lineup with him in there. 1. Skip 2. Rasmus 3. Pujols 4. Ludwick 5. Holliday 6. Wallace 7. (put SS here) 8. Molina. I mean thats a lineup reminiscent of our lineups with edmonds, pujols, walker, ect.

We more than likely will make a move around the trade deadline this year for a pitcher (especially if Carp is not healthy and effective at that point). The centerpiece will be Jones or Wallace and the fillers will be two of Jay, Mather, Craig, Anderson, Todd, and maybe Duncan or Barton. It’s nice to have all this talent in the minors, but some of the fringe guys are probably at their highest value now and bringing in a good, young starter (unless the stars allign and we can get Halliday) will help us take control of the Central for the next couple years.

heres my 2 cents

1b pujols
2b schumaker/barden or another right handed bat that plays good defense and so so offense
3b wallace (u gotta believe he can learn 3b better, and with so many outfielders the cards will make sure he learns)
ss khalil greene or that ss first round pick 2 years ago sorry cant remember his name buts hes is alot like khalil green from wat ive heard

as for the outfield well… as sad as it is ankiel will be gone
but..
cf rasmus (5 tool players r always a plus)
rf ludwick (he will still be a solid offensive player for a couple more years)

as for lf i see a couple of options
the cards could go all out and get holliday (losing glaus, probably pinero, ankiel, and kennedy’s salary and hopefully the economy gets better, the cards have enough $)

or

we go with a duncan/ jones or watever good outfielder platoon

starting 5 i c it as..

1 wainwright
2 lohse
3 carpenter
4 a.either pinero or wellemeyer (hopefully one them stays)
    b. cardinals spend alot of money that they didnt spend on holliday on starting pitcher
    c. cardinals use their farm system and trade for good starting pitcher with not too many years left on contract
    d. minor leaguer excels and does great in rotation
5.a. random free agent duncan project
    b. kmac becomes duncan project and does good

bullpen

dennys reyes
kmac if hes not in the rotation
chris perez
maybe franklin and if not the cards will do their best to pick up good set up man
random lhp to replace miller
ruber arm innings eater probably thompson
j kinney ( he will turn it around)
j motte

i think tony will stick mostly with closer by committee if it works this season

bench
duncan if cards get holliday
barden
thurston?
barton?
mather?
ryan?

cards always find ways to get a good bench

remember pujols said last winter he will continue to play for the cards as long as they want to win. so spending money on other players to improve the team is a big deal…

SP and SS.
There really isn’t anything else to spend money on next year.
Plus, there is a good chance that Shortstop of them is filled internally or via extension.
I say we go all out and sign a big name starter™ (looking over the list, no one stands out, but there is a season full of baseball between now and then).
Everything else should be covered, especially given the innumerable minor acquisitions that will be made (next year’s Joe Thurston, et al).
Anyway, a trade might be good as well, depending on who we have to give up, but that is harder to predict than free agent deals.

2B – Schu
CF – Colby
1B – Albert
RF – Ludwick
LF – Duncan
3B – Glaus
SS – Greene, (Tyler)
C – Yadi

BN1 – Ryan (2B/SS)
BN2 – Barden (2B/3B)
BN3 – Mather (OF/1B/3B)
BN4 – Barton (LF/CF/RF)
BN5 – FA (or maybe B. Anderson) – C

SP1 – Wainwright
SP2 – Lohse
SP3 – Someone we traded Ankiel or Duncan for
SP4 – Wellemeyer
SP5 – Boggs/Walters/FA
SP6 – Mortensen/Lynn/Garcia

RHRP – Perez
RHRP – Motte
RHRP – Adam Reifer (makes team out of ST)
RHRP – McClellan
LHRP – Reyes
LHRP – FA

Some *WAGNERS:

I think the percolation of arms up from the minors will push Thompson off the team, and that Pineiro won’t be back.
I also think T. Greene will show just enough this year to be in the plans for next year and be handed the starting job with a heavy use of a backup.
One of Barden/Ryan/Mather/Barton will be dropped in favor of a veteran FA, but I don’t know which (probably Ryan).
Wallace is not quite ready in 2010, providing further incentive to keep him down.

*WAGNER = Wild Ass Guess, Not Easily Refuted

He has not impressed me with his defense at all. He has three errors already and I have seen at least one more that should have been called an error. I have not seen his range yet and his arm isn’t that impressive. Unless he starts playing defense and hitting well, I would not like to see him back.

I would love to see Crawford signed along with 1 or 2 good starters, a SS, (probably through trade), some good relief help, and hopefully Wallace will be at third. We have some money to spend with Glaus, Kennedy’s contract, Khalil, and Ankiel all coming off the books.

I hope that we trade Ankiel this season at the deadline for whatever we need, although he needs to start hitting to be a valuable tradechip.