Picking up the pieces; or, Plan B from Memphis
by tom s. on Apr 15, 2009 4:01 AM EDT
30 comments
At this hour, we don't know if carpenter has a strained oblique, a torn oblique, or if several important muscle groups have just detached themselves from his ribcage.
but as my grandmother didn't say, god doesn't close a door unless he slams the window sill down on your fingers too.
so, who do we get to replace him? who is available?
our immediate option will be memphis. all you guys waiting on pedro martinez will have to wait a bit more, i think.
so rotation candidates at memphis are (all projections are CHONE)
clayton mortensen (projected ERA 5.36/FIP 5.31/K:BB 1.36)
mitch boggs (4.99/5.05/1.30)
adam ottavino (5.78/5.93/1.25)
pj walters (4.61/4.84/1.81)
and blake hawksworth (4.79/5.19/1.71)
jess todd, we can count too, if you like, though the club seems to think him destined for the bullpen, and has cleverly and with exceptional timing, removed him from the memphis rotation. (4.50/4.95/1.87)
for the sake of "fun" let's look at resident long man brad thompson (4.28/4.08/1.94). however, it's worth noting that in the season in which he was called on to start with regularity, he did not stand the extra inning load very well (2007: 4.73/5.96/1.33). his terrible FIP came mostly from giving away a free home run with every plate appearance. okay, we're done looking.
roster management point: boggs, the hawk, and mort are all on the 40-man. so adding them to the ML squad wouldn't take up a slot.
Boggs is probably the course of least resistance. Most known quantity. On the 40-man. But he has some of the worst projections and peripherals. We saw him last year and he was not particularly impressive.
Todd would probably be the best of the bunch, going by projections. But as mentioned, he is no longer stretched out as a starter. he appeared in relief on the 13th.
Walters seems like a good option here. he had a good spring, showing up with improved velocity.
who's fresh? mort pitched tonight. the hawk pitched last night. walters pitched the 11th, ottavino the night before that, and boggs on the ninth.
my humble suggestion: our bullpen is spent, our rotation has a gaping hole, our middle infield is overfull. send down ryan (yes, i know he's out of options) and motte. DL carpenter (i am assuming this is necessary). Call up perez, boggs, and walters. boggs and perez can eat innings tomorrow along with franklin if needed. prep walters for starting in carp's spot. this will free up some fresh-ish arms for the bullpen and provide a starter in carp's spot.
other options are worth considering, including sending down thompson or kinney instead of motte - though we would likely lose the optionless thompson. bringing up todd is definitely possible.
but it would sure suck to just surrender the relief innings tomorrow if pineiro isn't still drinking the same water as kyle lohse.
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Works for me.
Although I would send out Thompson, not Motte. (I also think he’s out of options, but eh, I doubt anyone will claim him. And if they do, well, meh)
by DiscoJer on Apr 15, 2009 5:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are there any FA left out there?
Might be interesting to do something like we did with Kelly . . . Kelly . . . crap, the catcher — Stinnett (sp?)! Sign some vet to a short term deal. I have no idea who’s out there, but there must be a few guys still unsigned. Where’s good ol’ Jeffy Jeff these days?
I’d still like to see us sign Ben Sheets to a rehab deal, but that’s a whole different story.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Apr 15, 2009 5:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PJ Walters
He pitched 7 innings of shutout ball for the Redbirds against Oklahoma City on Saturday night at AutoZone Park.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Apr 15, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Send Manager Down
to start with. The lack of Ludwick in last nights game is a serious mistake and illustrates Tony’s overmanaging problem. That is a different problem and in all seriousness any improvement needs to start with Ludwick playing everyday – the other three outfielders can alternate but Ludwick cannot be sitting until he proves that last year was a fluke. Sitting Ludwick is almost as bad as not playing Albert.
Can’t disagree with making the call for PJ Walters to fill-in for Carp but that is just a glimpse of the problems. Kinney, Thompson, and McClellan have all had their moments and appear ripe for a blow-up. I actually think that there are three guys at Memphis that should be with the Cards. Perez is a no-brainer – he is the best option they have for a closer and Thompson should be the first to go. Right behind Thompson is Kinney – I don’t want to give up on Kinney but he is not right and he needs work. Kinney needs to go down until he is right. Not going to happen but Jess Todd is the best option to replace Kinney. McClellan stays simply because there is no one else ready.
Call ups: Perez, Todd & Walters
Send down Thompson & Kinney
DL: Carp
by Warcard on Apr 15, 2009 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+1 for Warcard
Tony needs to go down to Memphis and work through the funk he is in. As Al always says, “you can get fixed down in AAA a lot quicker than you can in the big leagues.”
by jjray on Apr 15, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maloney to St. Louis?
If you send LaRussa down to Memphis, then does that mean Chris Maloney should get promoted to St. Louis?
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Apr 15, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming Carp is going to miss.....
3 starts or less, I say let Thompson have the starts. Or, at least, let Thompson take the first one and see how he does. I haven’t looked at the schedule, but I’m guessing we have a day off in there somewhere that we could “skip” a Thompson start, if necessary.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Apr 15, 2009 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thompson vs. the Cubs on Sunday night
is not something I EVER want to see
"I think he's the best hitter of all time. I think there has never been a better hitter than him. And I know I didn't see them all, but I just don't think there could be." - Adam Wainwright on The Mang
by bmorgan on Apr 15, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea.....
That is the perfect scenario for one of our young guys though.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Apr 15, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Mitch Boggs or PJ Walters could make a career out of that start — a la Anthony Reyes 2006 World Series Game 1.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 15, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was being sarcastic.....
I don’t get the hate towards Thompson. He has thrown alot of start innings at a decent clip for us as a fill in. I’d rather start, with him, and call Perez up. Strengthens the pen, and we aren’t wasting a start on a kid that clearly isn’t ready.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Apr 15, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thompson clearly isn't ready
with his one average pitch. He’s a younger Carlos Silva. He’s not a viable starter in the big leagues.
by azruavatar on Apr 15, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
agreed
although I wish we did have Silva. He can be a pretty decent pitcher at times.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 15, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in 2007, he was asked to start 17 games.
he gave up 1.6 home runs every 9 innings. during his other three seasons, while serving primarily as a reliever he gave up .82, .64, and .70 home runs every 9 innings. he also struck out far fewer guys in 2007 (3.69 k/9) than as a reliever (4.75, 5.08, 4.45).
if you only have one pitch, it’s good not to see batters twice.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Apr 15, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Through, not though.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Apr 15, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
carp will be out a month, minimum
if this is an oblique injury
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Apr 15, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this option...
Piniero throws 7 innings tonight, regardless. If he has to take a 7 inning, 120 pitch, 13 ER game like Marquis did a few times in 2006, I’m fine with that — it beats burning an option on someone. If the game is out of hand — hello Brendan Ryan on the mound!!! After that fucking terrible at-bat last night (seriously Brendan, three swinging strikes, two of which at balls out of the zone? Nick Stavinoha looked better against Lidge last year. For fucks sake, a ball in play probably gets the go-ahead run home!) he needs some public embarrassment on the mound. If not, you have Franklin to go a couple of innings or you can have Reyes work an inning and Franklin work the 9th.
If Carp needs to go on the DL, you get him there as soon as possible and bring up Boggs to throw against the Cubs on Sunday night. Kinney goes down, Perez comes up. If necessary, Thompson goes down and Hawksworth comes up.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 15, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd vote for PJ to get the call
Let him take Carp’s roster spot. I believe we only have like 37 on the 40-man so adding someone isn’t a problem.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Apr 15, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tough call.
I guess I’d vote for PJ Walters, but I don’t think he needs to be called up until Sunday. In the meantime, I think a couple of bullpen arms could help eat some innings over the next few days. Maybe Boggs and Perez could join the pen while Carp hits the DL and either Thompson or Kinney try to get right in Memphis.
by mikeonthecards on Apr 15, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Seconded
I’d put my money on PJ Walters, he was the last starter who had inning in Grapefruit league games, I’m pretty sure, so he must have impressed the coaches. (He impressed me.)
I like Boggs, and an ideal situation would be to start him today and push all the other starters back into the Cubs series so a rookie doesn’t get a start in that one, but don’t think he’s quite right at this point in the season. It’d be a tough start to make unless they got him on a plane last night (and he’s still the listed starter on the Redbirds website).
The dark horse would be Blake Hawksworth. He’ll be out of options after this season, so he’ll need to show he can contribute this year. I’d be surprised if it were him, but that’d be how I’d rationalize it.
And sending Kinney down for a reliever makes sense to me, but I’m guessing it’ll be someone other than Perez coming up: either Todd or Scherer, since I wouldn’t expect Kinney to be down long and they’ll want Perez to come up for good when they deem him ready. Probably Todd, since he’s certainly capable of pitching multiple innings effectively.
by liam on Apr 15, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorta right
Perez up, Thompson down. (BUT NOW WE HAVE NO LONG MAN!) (And who knew Puppy Kicker had options left?)
Walters up, pitching on Friday, bumping everyone after Wainwright back a night. I think that’s a fantastic plan.
by liam on Apr 15, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thompsons projections are based off of him being in the pen most of the time
As a starter, his career ERA is 4.79 and his FIP is a replacement level-esque 5.23 in 124 innings. I would much rather go with Walters or Boggs as they would at least have a long term future on the team, and a better chance to beat their projections.
Of course Todd is the best pitcher out of all of them, but…
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 15, 2009 9:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind walters starting in carp's place for now
His fluttery, knuckle-like changeup is a bit of a mystery pitch that MLB hitters won’t have had much exposure to, so there’s a chance he’ll take some teams by surprise and rack up some strikes. I think the rest of his repertoire is mediocre but I’ll take him over Boggs for now, I think.
The two big unsigned options seem to be Odalis Perez (who I advocated signing during the spring, given we could probably have him for next to nothing – 1-2m would get it done, and he’s been a 1.5-ish win pitcher for the last few seasons. His stuff sucks, but he’s a lefty and eats innings. Really, he’s probably not much worse than John Garland (who we roughed up last night) and is maybe a tiny bit better than Pineiro, though there’s a risk his hittable/not giving up too many HR stuff is over-rated by FIP and his hitting is very poor too) and Pedro Martinez (who reportedly wants $5-6m, and has been a shell of his former self and injury-prone the last couple of years; obviously more upside here than Perez, but also considerable risk and the possibility he won’t be fit to start for a little while anyhow. Personally, I wish he’d just retire as he isn’t the great pitcher we all remember anymore, but I suppose there’s still a chance he can be league-average, given a clean bill of health). I’d probably consider getting on the phone to Perez if Carp’s due to be out a couple of months, but I wouldn’t want to spend much more than 1-2m on him and I’d like to see what PJ Walters can provide first.
Perez up, Thompson down is a no-brainer. Wouldn’t mind seeing Jess Todd in the long-man role later in the year, but our bullpen looks better now, despite the question marks over Kinney’s wildness, Motte’s role and Perez’s propensity for walks. But at least now we have the choice of 4 or 5 pitchers who are all risky but have real upside. Thompson’s just a mediocrity.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 4:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally
this REALLY makes our decision not to go hard after Chad Gaudin look bad.
He could be an average-ish starter right now, and the crappy Padres got him on a MINOR LEAGUE DEAL. We really should’ve thrown $1m guaranteed at him.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 16, 2009 4:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chad Gaudin or Shawn Hill
both are above average major league pitchers who we could have gotten for nothing.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 16, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shaun Hill
would have been a great addition to our list of players on the disabled list, I’ll give you that. He hasn’t been healthy since high school and he only played 30 games in a season back then.
Gaudin would have been a good buy low candidate and the Cardinals should have made him an offer.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Apr 16, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill had #2 starter potential
so I would have taken the injury risk. Anyway, we should have signed signed both.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 16, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one of my big concerns with the cards
despite good “freely-available talent” signings this offseason that didn’t really work out (Ostlund, Ring) and a few that did (Miller, if he counts, and Thurston) is that we still consistently miss out on virtually free players who’d make a lot of sense for the team. Especially in terms of SP depth.
We could all foresee a scenario where one or two of our starting five would miss considerable time this year, and, although I like the fact we’re putting some trust in the kids, I’m not necessarily sure we’re giving them OR the team the best chance to succeed. We should’ve had at least one FAT/reclamation project this spring, if nothing else but to put some pressure on pineiro and allow us to release Thompson without having to put a promising AAA guy in the pen (Todd). Guys like Odalis Perez, Chad Gaudin, Shawn Hill etc etc aren’t going to win you a world series, but they’re an easy way to get marginal one-to-two win upgrades over essentially replacement level AAAA reserve starters. Now, Boggs/Walters/Garcia might be major league pitchers at some point but, for now, it’s hard to see them being much more than replacement level. When superior talent is available basically for free, I think it’s a major oversight to ignore it.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 17, 2009 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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