Starting Rasmus in AAA for now would be best
by CardsWin on Mar 30, 2009 7:57 PM EDT
Email
PrintThat the Cardinals have sent Chris Perez to AAA in favor of keeping Brad Thompson in the bullpen, demonstrates that in the roster formula for LaRussa and Mozeliak major league experience and the role a player is in (long term relief for Thompson) matter at least as much as superior talent (Perez vs. Thompson).
It seems a good bet that same formula will be applied in assigning one of these players to AAA:
- Thurston
- Ryan
- Barden
- Rasmus
The best move, IMO, would be to send Rasmus to AAA for a couple more months of seasoning, for these reasons:
- Just as the Cards have a surplus of RH relief pitchers, making it possible to send Perez to AAA to work on his conditioning and secondar pitches, the Cards already have a surplus of lefthanded outfielders, including Ankiel (full time) and Duncan (full time vs. LHP at least), and Skip Shumaker is said to be in line for a shift to the OF late in games when he is replaced by a reserve infielder with more experience at 2B (Ryan or Thurston or, best of all defensively, Barden)
- The market value for Ankiel and Duncan is not as high as it will be in a couple of months, if they show they are in full health (Duncan recovering from neck surgery, Ankiel from abdominal surgery). Giving both maximum playing would be the best way to set up the most favorable trade of one of them before the July trading deadline. Rasmus could then step into the role Rick or Chris vacate.
- Rasmus, like Perez, has shown that he needs more seasoning to harness his own talent. His hitting has been inconsistent this spring, despite flashes that show off his ample talents. And he has even misplayed some balls in the field. Giving Colby a tuneup at AAA and then moving him to the big leagues this summer would put him under less pressure than putting him on the opening day roster.
- The clock on the arbitration and free agent clock for Rasmus would be delayed a year if Colby came to the Cards this summer rather than in April. That alone would mean that the Cardinals would be spending a whole year of Rasmus at low cost just for his playing part time for two months this season. Mozeliak seems too smart at managing the team's assets to squander his player resources in that way.
So it shouldn't be a surprise if the Cardinals start the season with these players instead of Rasmus:
- Thurston - the only LH infield reserve with much power
- Mather - the only RH outfield reserve with much power and one who could platoon with Ducan vs. LHP
- Ryan - the best reserve at SS and a solid defensive reserve for Shumaker at 2B, with a couple of years of ML experience already
- Barden - another RH bat off the bench who could then sub in the field at 2B, 3B, or SS, with very good hitting this spring and a taste of ML experience, at least
The choice really seems to be between Barden and Schumaker. A case can easily be made for keeping Rasmus and sending Barden to AAA, of course. We might not know which way the Cards go until the end of the last spring training game: a nice little drama to make this last week of waiting for the real games to begin a bit less boring....
88 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Not that big a deal
The relief picture is crowded. This gives Perez more opportunities to refine his stuff. Motte may become the closer in the short-term, but Perez has better long-term upside, thanks to having multiple reliable pitches.
if the cards are contending
and Ankiel and Duncan are hitting well, they won’t be traded until the offseason. I wouldn’t gamble trading a major producer on the team to allow Rasmus to step in, what if he hits only like half as well as one of those guys? that is, taking it for granted that they both would be hitting well and driving up their trade value.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 30, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions
whoops
Ankiel wouldn’t be traded in the offseason, duh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 30, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
History would also indicate ...
that at least one of those two players would have a significant injury by July, thus making room for Rasmus anyway.
true
I hope they stay healthy though, of course
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 31, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
his hitting has been fine. it's hard to look a sample size as small as ST and say
that any subset of an already small sample size is “inconsistent” with another subset of the same small sample size.
and these digs on his defense are getting to me. i’ve now seen the same “colby bobbled a ball! omg, send him down!” comment made by several different people. he has a track record as an outstanding fielder. he didn’t forget how to field his position. a couple of errors doesn’t turn a talented fielder into an unready one. and fielding at a major league level is not particularly different from the minor league level (as opposed to hitting). i think this reaction is just overreaction to the same ordinary errors that any player can have.
if people want to say that we should keep him in AAA while we showcase ankiel or dunc for a trade (which I have earlier advocated, although it seems less pressing with schumaker at 2b), that’s fine. if people want to beat his arbitration clock, then fine.
but there’s nothing about his performance that suggests he needs “more seasoning.” he performed quite well this spring and better than many others on the club.
I agree, if you believe Colby has somehow lost a competition this spring, that is not a reason to send him to AAA.
He has outperformed Duncan by a bit IMO.
He has a .795 OPS w/ 4 steals while Duncan has a 767 OPS with 1 steal and despite the Rasmus errors he is a far more competent fielder. It’s not that Duncan has been bad, but if this was really because of a “competetion” then rasmus has a little bit of a lead for duncan as the 3rd best OFer behind Ank and Ludwick.
I don’t really see showcasing Dunc for a trade either as I don’t really think he’ll bring back anything worth sacrificing wins now, and he can still get enough at bats by being a 4th OFer and pinch hitting to give other clubs and idea where he’s at.
Playing time doesn’t really work for me either, I think Rasmus should get his ABs at the major league level if he makes it, his glove will help when his bat doesn’t.
THE BEST reason to send rasmus to AAA is to beat his arbitration clock, that’s a very good reason and really the only one I feel is valid. Personally I just want to see Rasmus play, but I understand this arguement.
I'd much rather have Rasmus than Duncan
and Duncan could probably use a little rehabbing in the minors, but then again there’s the issue with starting Rasmus’ payclock running
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 31, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The presence of rasmus means that trading Duncan is not trading wins now
You have a steady backup that can step in and replace Duncan’s production (as you argue here), and THEN you can trade Duncan away for something of value. So you’re creating a situation where you gain net wins, either this season, or in future seasons.
Unless you’re making an argument about Rasmus’ arb clock.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Errors
“and these digs on his defense are getting to me. i’ve now seen the same "colby bobbled a ball! omg, send him down!" comment made by several different people.”
The “error” I saw Rasmus make in RF was Duncan-esque. I say “error” because he managed to not touch the ball.
I was also underwhelmed by the results of his swing. I don’t think I saw him do much of anything in two games.
Not to nit pick
I don’t think I saw him do much of anything in two games.
Not to nit pick but two games in ST is nothing to base a decision. Tony will be making his not only of on the games played but the way he has praticed all of spring.
Yes, But...
I also saw Colby do nothing in BP.
No power to speak of.
Shane Robinson was actually hitting the ball much harder (and really caught my eye).
Can Robinson convert to 2B? He feels like Pedroia to me.
well, somehow, this guy with "no power to speak of" hit 29 homers in one season of aa ball.
and one error, no matter how egregious, does not outweigh several full seasons of excellent fielding. last year at AAA he had a +15 UZR/150 and a +12 UZR/150 at AA last year.
or you could take a couple of swings in the game and at BP and one play in a game and weigh those more heavily than hundreds and hundreds of fielded balls and hundreds and hundreds of plate appearances.
I saw him go deep off of
non other than Jason Motte in live BP when I was in Florida.
He also hit one off of the wall against Wainwright.
He’s got power — it just may take a little while to come around at the big league level.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
last game I watched
Pujols struck out twice and Slowery made him look pretty bad in general.
I’ve decided he has no plate discipline, is a strike out machine, and doesn’t have the ability to hit for power.
Yeah
maybe Luis Pujols
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Not playing CF has hurt Colby's fielding, per Goold
Derrick Goold suggests that Rasmus’ unfamiliarity with the way the ball comes off the bat to LF or RF has led to his mistakes in the field. (See today’s PD article, “Backing Rasmus into a Corner”.) The difficulty of shifting from CF is an explanation that would displace the hypothesis that Colby is pressing in the field as well as at the plate.
there's no way TLR is going to more Rick, errrr Dick from CF though
he just won’t do it
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Dick's Arm
I will say that Dick’s huge arm is perfectly suited for RF and for killing guys at 2B and 3B.
To a (admittedly small) degree, it’s wasted in CF.
Talent, skill, and control of motivation, emotion, habits, and mental focus
I don’t think anyone questions that Rasmus has the raw talent and the developed skills of a plus defender. He has also turned his raw hitting talents into a high level of skill, though he still has farther to go on that curve to reach his full potential as a major league hitter.
But there’s another very important component of a ballplayer’s competence: his ability to manage and channel his motivation, emotions, habits, and mental focus. Colby seems, like almost all 22-year olds, to need some more seasoning and growth in that component of competency. LaRussa had to take him aside early in spring training and coach him not to try to be a basher, like Ankiel and Duncan and Mather, but rather a line-drive hitter and speedster. Colby responded well at first, but more lately he seems to be pressing again. The lapses in his fielding, very unusual for such a fine defensive player, may also reflect that Colby is losing his mental focus and control of his emotions. I am a big fan of Rasmus, expect him to be a star for the Cardinals for years once he gets his chance, and develops more maturity.
One of these things is not like the other...
Thurston
Ryan
Barden
Rasmus
We have 3 middle infielders who will basicly be doing the same job and an outfielder. Honestly I think it’s between Thurston and Barden.
I'm afraid if the 3 MIFers make the team
We’ll see Thurston in the OF and at 3rd more than I personally would like.
Three infield reserves would allow more flexible use of bench in late innings
Three reserve infielders would give LaRussa important flexibility in using pinch hitters late in the games the Cardinals lead, when Schumaker will need to be moved to left field to put a better defender at second base and at the same time put a much better defender in left field (Schu vs. Duncan). With only two infield reserves, just one will be useful as a pinch hitter. With Thurston the LH with power, Barden the RH with good OBP, and Ryan the reserve with solid defense and the best speed for pinch running (Thurston gets thrown out a lot and his power would be wasted in pinch running roles). LaRussa likes a lot of flexibility for targetted matchups and double substititions. He already has plenty of options in the outfield (moving Shumaker there, or Mather, or even Thurston and Ryan in a pinch – gasp!). I imagine choosing three infielders is something Tony would seriously consider, at least. Not that it’s anything close to a lock….
thurston is pretty speedy. he stole 20, 16, and 19 bases in the last three minor league seasons.
and no doubt the bench would be flexible but it wouldn’t really be much good with three middle infielders. i wouldn’t pick any of them to be my late inning pinch hitter.
ryan and barden, particularly, seem to have totally duplicative skill sets. i think barden should get the edge, but i hardly see much light between them.
Thurston to me is the least valuable
He is probably the worst hitter and defender out of the three and his speed really doesn’t mean shit. Ryan can run just as well. Furthermore Ryan and Barden are righties which we desperately need to platoon with Skippy. Anyway, I don’t see the point of carrying more than 1 MAYBE 2 backup infielders.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
it is not the fact that Rasmus is an outfielder that makes him not like the others
it is that those 3 are back up MLB infielders at the very most while Rasmus is a potential All-Star/GG CF.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Uh
Chris Perez was sent down because we have Josh Kinney for the 7th, Ryan Franklin for the 8th, and Jason Motte for the 9th innings. Where does Chris Perez fit into that equation?
And for that matter, if Brad Thompson is sent to AAA Memphis, who is our long reliever? Kyle McClellan? He should be counting his blessings he didn’t get sent down—he’s only on the team to begin the year off because of his performance during (most of) 2008; his Spring Training has been AWFUL. Then who else, Ryan Franklin? Although I actually feel Franklin would be perfect as a long reliever, Tony has made up his mind about Franklin’s role as a set-up man/possible spot closer.
Don’t blame Brad Thompson for Chris Perez being sent down. If anything, I’d have rather kept both Thompson and Perez and sent down Kyle McClellan.
As for Rasmus, let him make the roster. He’ll be a fine 4th outfielder, and if he is as good as everyone has always thought he is, then he will have no problem eventually being a regular starting outfielder, especially if his main competetion is CHRIS DUNCAN.
Brian Barden should make the team and Joe Thurston should start at AAA. Or we should send Brendan Ryan through waivers because honestly it won’t be a big loss if someone else picks him up.
The report said ...
that the roster decision was made for two long relievers (Thompson and McClellan) versus keeping another back of the bullpen, short reliever (Perez). CardsWin didn’t make up the argument, he was simply restating to indicate the seeming philosophy on roster decisions of the organization.
I'd rather have Perez than Franklin
but unfortunately, you can’t just give Franklin the boot
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 31, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
No
I guess terrible starters turned into terrible releivers are just too hard to find these days.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Franklin is medicore/below average, not horrible
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
His FIP last year was 4.75
League average for a starter is around 4.4. For a reliever it is around 4.2. Needless to say, that is pretty horrible. His career FIP is nearly 5. He had one good (and most likely flukish) year in 07, but he is a crappy pitcher and definitely not better than Perez.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
And besides
Perez’ beard was itching! Doesn’t that mean it’s working?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Mar 31, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
my beard was ichy too
so i trimmed it.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
This is a hard one for me
I can see Rasmus having as much or possibly more value to the cardinals right now as .Barden would be but the argument for delaying the start of the clock on him is a valid one and a AAA tune up wouldn’t hurt either.
if it comes down to the money, i won't blame the Cards if Colby starts in Memphis
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
I still say
if he’s as good as we hope he’ll be, his arb clock is meaningless. He’ll be extended by then, ala Wainwright and Molina.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I still agree
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
that does make sence Fritz
i didn’t really think about that
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
Arb Clock
IIRC, Colby would have to miss about 50 days to fall short of Super Two status over the next three seasons, not counting DL time.
IMO the Cards have a better chance of winning with Colby than without. Here is a possible solution to the Arb Clock issue. Start Colby with the big club out of spring training, then, at the All Star break, send him down for a month and a half to “work on his swing/get playing time” if a) the other OFs are outperforming, b) the Skip experiment fails and Skip moves back to full time OF c) he struggles against mlb pitching or d) the Cards are 10 games out of the playoffs, in which case you want to showcase Ank and Dunc for trade bait.
I like your thinking. Except . . .
It was the thinking that it seemed the Rays employed last year with Evan Longoria. Obviously that worked out for all parties . . . Longoria gets called up several weeks into the season (even though Rays diehards CLAMORED to have him at the beginning of the season), signs a lucrative (for a young’in) long-term deal and rakes the crap out of the ball in the bigs, all while playing well-above-average D at the hot corner. Meanwhile . . . well, we saw what the Rays ended up doing last year.
Somehow I expect a similar situation to happen with Rasmus, unless it ends up being the Ryan Braun success story from ‘07 (most of you might remember that one by now). Not quite your All-Star Break send-down, but it would have the same effect. And I’m kinda hoping one of those two scenarios pops up here for CR, but we’ll see.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
FAIL!!!
So let me get this straight…based on ST you want to send down Rasmus and keep Mather? IMO we should keep both because we know what they are capable of but sending Rasmus down becasue he is left handed and hasnt hit like Allen Craig is ridunkulous…Rasmus isnt left handed like Skip and Dunc are left handed he will not need a platoon so that fact that he stands on the left side of the plate is irrelevant just as the fact that Pujols stands on the right side is. Rasmus is one of our three best outfielders and if let play everyday will add significant value on both offense and defense (esp if they put him in CF instead of Slick Dick!!!). Starting is arb clock early shouldnt matter either because he is not going to go 6 full years before he signs a longterm contract with the BOB.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Hyperbole much?
You know, you could make the same comment better than you just did without characterizations like “fail” and “ridunkulous.”
None of Cardswin’s points are completely lacking in support, and in any event, you haven’t bothered to support your case with numbers at all. Certainly, comparisons between Rasmus and Pujols are entirely premature at this point.
First, many others have mentioned that it might be best for Rasmus’ development to allow him to play everyday. He likely won’t be able to do that in the Bigs. Is this “ridunkulous?”
Second, it’s perfectly reasonable to choose Barden over Rasmus based upon Spring Training.
Spring ’09 OBP SLG AVG OPS
Rasmus .376 .419 .284 .703
Barden .442 .538 .385 .923
Other than these stats, Rasmus doesn’t have much of a big league record, and his AAA numbers suggest he’s not ready. What’s so “ridunkulous”?
Is Rasmus a more valuable prospect? Yes. But the question is who will make this team better right now. The case that Rasmus does that is open to question.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
by Titus Pullo on Mar 31, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
it is open to question
and i gave my answer…as far as my wording i apologize if you dont like it but truthfully i dont care…i was hardly comparing Pujols and Rasmus ability but the fact that they dont show weak splits which i think you knew but were just trying get a little something extra in there against my argument…
Rasmus should be playing everyday in the Majors which is my argument and not forced to play everyday in AAA which would be redundant for him…Keeping Barden over Rasmus shouldnt be an issue because one is an infielder and one an outfielder and Tony will not come down to choosing between and extra outfielder or an extra infielder… basing on AAA numbers from last year, which you mention, they are very close to the same only Rasmus was injured and has huge potential and Barden is exactly what you see, a backup IF. Basing anything off of ST numbers is not very smart because of the sample size. if it is a factor in a group of factors that is one thing but being the base of your decision is, as MooCow would say, udderly dumb. which again i know you know but for some reason felt like sticking to me in this post…Keeping Barden over Ryan on the other hand would be something to look into.
The point in my post was that Mather should not get to stay over Rasmus just because he is right-handed or because Rasmus hasnt had a great spring because Joe Joe hasnt either in fact probably a lot worse…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
As far as I can see
there’s absolutely no way Rasmus will not start the season in MLB, nor indeed SHOULD he be sent down.
Given Barton’s been optioned, that would leave us with FIVE middle infielders on the roster. That’s truly horrible, even worse than last year’s Miles/Iz2/AK/Ryan mess. If we have our best lineup vs RHP playing, it means our pinch-hitters will probably be Mather, Thurston, Barden, Ryan, and LaRue. Only one of those guys can really hit a lick.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
To clarify...
I wouldn’t have minded keeping Rasmus down for a couple of months for his arby clock, and keeping Barton to play LF/lead-off vs LHP, giving up another right-handed bat and solving the “who hits #1 vs lefties?” conundrum that TLR will find himself in, but with no other OF (barring Jay) available, it’s not going to happen.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 31, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
well
Skip also counts as an OF, not just a mif
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Cardswin, who's your player this year?
Hey Cardswin,
Last year you were virtually Cesar Izturis’ sole advocate on this blog. For all the grief sent your way, I don’t think anyone would quibble with the proposition that Iz2 was more valuable than Ryan last year.
So which lost cause do you plan to champion this year? Also, what’s your view of K.Greene? Is he, in your view, an improvement over Iz2?
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
Lost cause
I’ll get you for that, Titus! : ) I was actually very happy with K. Greene over Izturis, from the beginning (and wasn’t deceived by the fact that Izturis actually outhit Greene last year – what an aberration!). Iz2 did provide excellent defense and base stealing, but little else, though, as you point out, he was a better option last year than Ryan. But that’s definitely damning with faint praise!
My “lost cause” this year would be either Luis Perdomo and Anthony Reyes, or Tyler Johnson.
Why in the world did the Cardinals not protect Perdomo, in favor of some lesser talents? Luis is looking more and more like a Giant for this full year (he had one very rough outing but has otherwise been brilliant, and the Giants are using him as one of their primary closers lately). Was not protecting Perdomo from the Rule V draft LaRussa’s final dig at Anthony Reyes (who pitched extremely well last year for the Indians and spoke very highly of their pitching coach and the USC pitching coach, perhaps as a signal to LaRussa/Duncan), as in Tony et. al. saying, “We think so little of you Anthony that we basically gave you away, didn’t even protect the guy we traded you for”. Unbelievably stupid of the Cardinal brass….
As for Tyler Johnson, what were they thinking there, too?! They desperately needed competent LH relief this year, yet they let TJ go in favor of giving guys like Ring a shot. Even with TJ recovery from TJ surgery (irony), he would have been a better chance to take than a couple of the LH relievers they tried out at the beginning of the spring. Did TJ’s free spirited lifestyle offend Tony, or what…?
P.S. Thanks for burying that hatchet, Az. We can all celebrate that K. Greene seems to have found the right mental approach to hitting again (spending lots of time with Pujols helps, the PD reports), after a stunning hitting dive last year.
Fair enough
Good point on Perdomo, and sorry to bring up a sore subject.
For those who couldn’t believe anyone would objectively defend Iz2, there was suspicion that you were motivated by some personal connection or psychological predilection.
But now I see you’re a penny stock specialist, i.e., someone who sees the advantage in the detailed understanding of small margins. An admirable skill.
So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)
Buy low, hold while earnings keep growing, sell high
Thank you for your vote of confidence, Titus. I do favor building the value of a team’s players much in the same way a portfolio manager builds the value of stocks, by finding undervalued stocks (Carpenter and Ludwick, for example, when they were signed, and perhaps K. Greene this year) and by finding stocks with good prospects for future earnings growth (Rasmus the hot prospect, Darryl Jones the diamond in the rough, Motte the converted catcher, etc.).
Mozeliak deserves credit
What Mo has done for this team has been very impressive, since his extremely challenging beginning in the aftermath of Jocketty’s ousting, the Rolen debacle, Edmonds’ wish to be traded, etc. Mo seems to be an excellent “portfolio manager”. His trade of Rolen for Glaus, Edmonds for Freese, a couple of minor league relief pitchers for Kahlil Greene, etc., are excellent moves that are very likely to significantly increase the overall talent on the ML Cardinal team this year and beyond. Then there’s that awful Anthony Reyes giveaway, under pressure from LaRussa and Duncan…. If I were choosing a portfolio manager, I’d defnitely go with Mozeliak over LaRussa….
Greene's hitting has been shocking, indeed
but he did show in his big year that he is capable of great offensive production, and he showed in the last couple of years that something seemed to be blocking him from tapping into that potential. Many speculated that Greene got his synapses all in a tangle the last couple of seasons at Petco Park. But the psychological aspect of success as a ML ballplayer is very difficult, if not impossible to analyze quantitatively (without access to the ballplayers for psychological testing and personality profiling), so it’s understandable why Greene’s success this spring, reportedly supported by a new mental approach to hitting, would catch you off guard, given what an avid and skillful devotee you are of hard data and statistical analysis and how averse you are to subjective hypotheses regarding factors such as “mental focus”, “personality”, “motivation”, “maturity”, and team “culture”. Though I like to look at the subjective factors more than you do, I salute you for your consistency and rigor in advocating hard data as the only legitimate basis for performance analysis. You’d make a great Jack Webb replacement in a Dragnet remake: “Just the facts, m’am, just the facts”.
Rasmus is still developing his own mental approach to the Game
It seems that Rasmus is still developing his own ability to manage his emotions and sustain his mental focus in a way that will fulfill all of his talent and skill. Greene’s need for an adjustment in his habit management and mental approach to hitting was reflected in the recent comments in the Post Dispatch about LaRussa putting Greene in the same hitting group Pujols was in, from the beginning of the spring, so that Greene could model Albert’s remarkably consistent hitting habits and core methods and focus. I wonder if Rasmus was in the same hitting group at the beginning of the spring.
It's not Greene's hitting that is shocking.
It’s his lack of strikeouts. I still can’t believe it, even for spring training. Of course, I expect the Ks to rack up a bit more once the season starts.
it wasn't even "in favor of some lesser talents"
there was an empty 40-man spot; they simply chose not to protect him. That really bugs me as well.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
That's pretty unforgiveable though
This is a professional organisation – to make a mistake and lose a player by not being able to count up to 40 is pretty risible IMO, if that is indeed what happened.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 1, 2009 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Read my comment again --
it didn’t have to do with the 40-man roster cap; it had with not wanting to use an option year on Perdomo.
Rasmus' Defense Gives Him the Edge
I know he has made mistakes in the outfield this spring but all you have to do is watch him glide across the outfield to realize how talented he really is. There is no comparison defensively – we can argue about offense but there is no argument when it comes to defense.
If Duncan is to play over Rasmus it has to be for offensive reasons and that is certainly a valid position. Duncan probably provides more power while Colby provides more speed. There is no way of being able to project BA, RBI ’s and on base percentage – they are probably pretty close given the same opportunities.
The difference is simply that Rasmus is a much better defensive player and that makes the Cards a much stronger team. Speed in the outfield is important and that is why he should be playing over Duncan.
I just hope that his defense in ST
is not his defense in the regular season
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 31, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Barton got 179 PAs last year
As a fifth outfielder who was injured for a chunk of the season.
If Rasmus can get twice that, it would be a good first season in the bigs. Which I think, given the LaRussa Daily LineUp Spectacular, he should.
After I looked at the age distribution between really good vs. average vs. poor center fielders (in my Fanpost—shameless plug), I don’t really care so much about the arbitration clock angle.
Counting the days 'till the first pitch.
by IL and StL Fan on Mar 31, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions
arb clock, maybe not
but they only have to keep him in AAA about 17 days to keep him under control an additional year (this is what the rays did with longoria last year). He’d be a super-two, but we’d keep control of him until 2015 instead of 2014.
That’s definitely a worthwhile move.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Small sample size, but still....
Rasmus had no hits today, though three other Cardinals hit home runs and two others hit doubles.
Colby also had two of the team’s four strikeouts.
He did draw one walk, and he make a nice catch.
But it looks like Rasmus is pressing again, as he did in the first week of the spring. Could pressure and uncertainty about the upcoming final roster cut be getting to Colby? He just doesn’t seem to be hitting as you’d expect of him. And he’s had about 75 AB’s to get in the groove.
I’d like to see him get it going in AAA for a few weeks before he comes up to St. Louis.
small sample size but . . .
nothing. small sample size. the amount of information you can gain from a day or a week of baseball is nothing.
75 AB's
Agreed, of course, that one game is a ridiculously small sample size. But Rasmus, in 75 AB’s, and in several other games this spring, has shown similar hitting ineffectiveness at the same time others, with less talent, facing exactly the same pitching, have done well. I think Colby would benefit from a few weeks in AAA to get his focus and consistency on track, with respect to his hitting. With the very high expectations around him and with competition from three established starting ML outfielders (not counting Schumaker), why not ease the talented rookie onto the roster coming off a hot month in Memphis rather than a cold month in spring, especially considering that Colby will be the fourth outfielder, playing only part time. It’s hard even for a veteran to get his batting eye and stroke on track under those conditions….
over 75 AB's rasmus has an ops of .773, better than ludwick, ryan, thurston, and mather.
if that’s pressing, then I’d love to see what rasmus is capable of when he hits his stride.
hopefully a lot better than .773 ;)
Then again, he’s one 2 for 4 day away from being at .850. That’s the joy of spring training stats.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
If he plays semi-regularly this year
and puts up .773 whilst playing (most likely) + defense in the OF whilst swiping a few bags, I think it won’t be a bad year at all (given much of his OPS is likely to be OBP). He’ll be somewhere around league average, or perhaps just above (if he plays enough CF).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 1, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Adding Rasmus to the lineup will make little difference in runs scored
According to Derrick Goold’s report of a statistical analysis from Baseball Musings Lineup Generator, it would make little difference in the Cardinals’ total runs scored to add Rasmus, even as a full-time player. This fits the thesis that Duncan would generate about as many runs as Rasmus, a plausible premise for now, while Rasmus is still developing. Here’s the pertinent excerpt from Goold:
Depending on who you throw into the lineup — Colby Rasmus, for example — the numbers stay generally consistent. It’s a give/take of 10 or so runs. Ten runs with Schumaker pegged, conservatively, for a .287/.343/.384 season. Ten runs on offense. Ten runs according to the dozens of lineups that the generator cranks out and calculates.
Of course, what also must be considered is how many runs Rasmus would save, compared with Duncan. I don’t have time to get that projection right now. Anyone else have it handy?
The key question is whether cost in terms of Colby’s arbitration clock would be worth the net gain in run differential generated by adding Rasmus the first week of April, versus waiting two months. I would guess the projections would show no more than one extra win for the Cardinals by adding Rasmus at the very beginning of the seasons, given that Colby would be only a part-time player.
If we are looking at the short term, then that extra wiin might make it worth bringing up Rasmus now. If we are looking at the long term value of delaying the arbitration clock, the extra win might not seem so important.
As mentioned previously, though
the arb clock might not actually be that pertinent – there’s a very good chance he’ll be signed to a deal that buys out his arb years plus a couple of FA ones pretty soon. I realise the deal might be a bit more favourable if he has an extra arb year, but I’m coming over to the idea that delaying his arb clock really isn’t a great excuse for keeping him down (there’s also the argument that any more learning he has to do will need to be done at the MLB level, so keeping him down is just stunting his development – again, not so sure I subscribe to that but it’s fair comment).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 1, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I would guess
that colby’s glove would be about 2 wins better than Duncan in LF, just based on Duncan’s career UZR/150 performance of about -7 and assuming Colby is a league-average CF, which would translate to about a +9 LF. if they are the same player offensively, Colby should absolutely be the starting LF.
If duncan is healthy, though, that’s not a good assumption.
- So, to ease his pain, you're supposed to take him to a ball game?
- Yes.
Colby adding 2 wins
sounds like a good bet. But isn’t that the calculation for a full season, playing full time? If so, then playing half time, for only the first third of the season would mean that Colby on the roster at the beginning of the season would only add 2 × 0.5 × 0.33 = one third of a win. Am I calculating that correctly?
I agree that Rasmus would be a better starter in the OF, with Duncan the reserve, and that Colby should play in CF, with Ankiel in RF, and so forth. But that’s not the question I’m raising.
The question is if how to best manage Colby’s talent as a team resource, for the greatest benefit to the team overall, both short term (this year) and longer term (five years out), by
(1) setting up the best conditions for Colby to break into the Big Leagues (with a little time at AAA to get into his hitting groove),
(2) keeping his long-term cost to the Cardinals lower (by delaying the arbitration clock),
(3) maximizing the trade value for Ankiel, whom I like very much, both as a player and as a person, but who is headed for a free agency contract that will have the bulk of years while Rick is in his 30’s (while the Cardinals will have good options at much lower cost, to be the fifth outfielder, behind Rasmus, Ludwick, and Duncan/Mather, such as Brian Barton and Jon Jay, with Darryl Jones close behind).
The Cardinals have ample surplus talent in the outfield, on the ML roster and on the farm. Building market value for Ankiel (coming off abdominal surgery) and Duncan (the titanium neck wonder) is the best opportunity to parlay the surplus outfield talent in a way that strengthens the team both this year, before the trading deadline, and in the next few years, when theCardinals can have an excellent outfield (Rasmus/Jones/Jay or Barton, etc.) at very low cost (saving dollars to be spent on other positions where free agents might be needed, such as SS, 2B).
I'd say Dunc will be slightly better than Razzles in offense
but I don’t think it will make up the difference between the defensive abilities, heck, why not just start Rasmus in CF
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly!
It’s important for a rookie under the pressure of extremely high expectations to be set up for success in his first ML experience, not be put in a situation where he will be just so-so, relative to how well he can hit. These are not the best conditions for breaking into the Major Leagues:
- The challenge of hitting part-time, often off the bench, not every day
- The distraction of playing out of position, not in CF, where has plenty of experience
- The pressure of living up to his rating as the #1 outfield propsect in all of MLB (a pressure he’ll have to face eventually whenever he is called up)
Those three pressures, taken all together at once, could delay Colby’s adjustment to the Big Leagues. He already has shown a pattern of slow adjustment with every promotion to the next higher level. Why not ease some of the pressure by bringing him up later, off a consistent, hot hitting streak at Memphis, rather than right at the beginning of the season, after an inconsistent spring training?
What would change in two months
Continue the thought, Colby gets called up on June 1st and all three bullets are the same. He’ll be hitting part time as the 4th OF and playing a corner position and hailed as the savior to the season. The only way to eliminate bullet number two is if Ankiel hits the DL. So if Ankiel is healthy, is the thought to not bother calling up Rasmus until September? Or better yet June 2010 so he’s arb clock isn’t started too soon?
Well
John Hadley mentioned about an hour ago that he doesn’t think Rasmus has earned a spot; so, by laws of logic defined years ago by the universe (if Hadley says it, it’s wrong), Rasmus has officially earned a spot. Congrats, Colby!
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Going by that logic
Ryan Ludwick looks like our RF for opening day in Memphis, then…
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 1, 2009 6:14 AM EDT up reply actions
no switch-hitters
and sending rasmus down, makes thurston the primary lhb off the bench?
rasmus and thurston w/3 rhb’s off the bench works better for me, so i’ll pass on sending colby down.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Viva El Birdos
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
