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Another Line-up Thought

There has been much discussion about the #2 spot in the batting order and I like many others have advocated for Ankiel in that spot.  I still think that Ankiel is a good option but I am now wondering if Greene would not be a better option.  Greene at the top of the order was originally discussed right after the Cards picked him up and the concensus seemed to be that he was to prone to strikeouts and had a low on base percentage.  He may still have the same problems once the season starts, but he sure has not shown any signs of such so far.  He is hitting for a very high average, has not had a problem with strikeouts, has speed and hits for power.  He would also keep the Cards from having two lefties hitting back to back and provide better L/R balance throughout the line-up.

I'm sure that there is a great reason why this is not a feasible option, but I need some help - what is it?

 

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you down with OBP?

the whole purpose of the leadoff and number two hitters are to put people on base — or in dusty baker’s terminology “clog up the basepaths” — in front of albert and the cleanup hitter. to give some perspective on the role runners in scoring position plays on the pitches albert sees, his OPS with runners in scoring position last year was 1.201. Sick.

greene’s greatest deficit is his lack of judgment at the plate and his poor on base percentage. lifetime: .304. Last year: .260. if that’s not the worst obp of any player that gotten 300 PA’s for the last five years and isn’t a backup catcher, it’s very close. greene is unlikely to move out of the six and seven slots. if he’s really slugging, he might make the five slot while glaus is out.

for my money, i think duncan should hit second when he’s playing — he has one of the best eyes (and worst swings) of anyone on the team. see the article laying out the % of pitches swung at out of the zone — dunc has a terrific eye. even last year when he struggled he still put together a .346 OBP. if he’s healthy, he’s the best #2 on our team.

i like ankiel or ludwick in the four and five slots. rasmus could be a solid #2 when he starts.

by tom s. on Mar 28, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions  

is there a site

that gives stats based on what spot in the order you hit in? I would bet Duncan kills in the 2 hole. Imagine if we always use high OBPs in front of Albert this year. The amount of RBI put up would probably guarantee him the MVP by the ASG, because we all know RBI is the most important stat.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

and....BEN SHEETS!!! **

**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)

by mattyfrommo on Mar 28, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Baseball-reference.com

is the one i use. Here is a link to Duncan’s career numbers for each lineup spot. Number two spot does looks nice. 505 career AB .281/.356/.537

He is awesome in the 3 hole too, but small sample size (3 AB .500/.667/2.000)

by ubeddie on Mar 28, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I get so used to stopping after the LHP/RHP splits

on that site that I totally forgot they did order splits. Thanks for that info.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

and....BEN SHEETS!!! **

**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)

by mattyfrommo on Mar 28, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

how do you hit .500

in 3 ABs?

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Mar 29, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

While spring training stats are fun

they rarely tell you much about a player. Between the varying level of competition and small sample sizes, it is impossible to get a read on how a players is actually going to do during the course of a season. A good example of that is Adam Kennedy, who batted .350 in ST last year.

On to Greene. Yes, he has hit the ball well in spring training, but as I said that isn’t very indicative of his true talent level. Greene is a player who generally struggles to a .300 on base percentage. OBP is the most important aspect of offense. Even with his power, he is one of the worst hitters on the team because of that low OBP.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 28, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions  

of course if Greene does have an OBP

close to .440 during the regular season, I want him leading off.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

and....BEN SHEETS!!! **

**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)

by mattyfrommo on Mar 28, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Understand the on-base-percentage

being a major characteristic of the player in the #1, #2, and the I would presume the #9 spot if you are batting the pitcher 8th. I would also think that you would also like to have someone with some degree of speed in those spots. For example, Molina is not a good fit for any of those spots because of his speed. I think speed would also be a very valuable asset hitting in the #2 spot because you want to avoid the DP and you want someone that can score on the Pujols double.

If Greene does revert back to his baseline statistics then he is certainly not the guy for the #2 spot and I understand that and agree with it.

by Warcard on Mar 28, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions  

No

You want a basestealer batting behind your RBI men and in front of your singles hitters. That way, you can use stolen bases to leverage your singles hitters into RBI men, too. Pujols should probably bat fourth because the cleanup hitter gets more RBI opportunities. (Although, if you go by TLR’s logic, you can accomplish this desired situation by batting a non-pitcher in the number nine slot.)

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Mar 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Revision

If your basestealer is a high OBP guy, too, then you do want to bat him in the number one or two slot rather than down in the order. So, if Greene can get on-base at a high clip, you’d want him high in the order, but, given his demonstrated skill set, I’d say batting him sixth would be absolutely ideal.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Mar 30, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

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