Updated WAR for the 2009 Cardinals

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 10:09 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

Back in January, Erik from FutureRedbirds (now residing at Beyond the Boxscore) took a look at the projected 2009 Cardinals by plugging them into Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet to see how many wins, by WAR, the projected team looked to be worth.

I took the liberty of re-constructing that spreadsheet now that we have a better idea of what the depth chart is going to look like on opening day. Again, I used CHONE for all projections. Here are the changes I made:

I removed Manning and Ring (although "Replacement" pretty well describes their talents, I think).
Added in Dennys Reyes.
Reduced the projected PA's for Glaus and added in PA's for Mather and Freese at 3B.
Moved Skippy to 2B, removed Kennedy, and bumped up the PA's for Ryan and Barden, adjusting for late inning replacements and platoonage. Same with Duncan, Mather, and Skip in LF.
Penciled in a full season for Chris Carpenter and slightly increased Wainwright's innings while pushing Puppykicker's and Boggs' innings down.
I spread Rasmus' PA's equally over CF and RF since I feel like he's going to be playing more corner outfield than originally projected as long as Ank stays healthy.
Although league average wOBA for pinch hitters is around .301, I bumped the Cardinals' to .310 because of the depth on the bench and the fact that we're going to have some platoons where solid regulars like Duncan, Mather, and Skip are going to be getting some late inning AB's. I also bumped down the PH numbers from 350 to 200 because of the platoons and movement around the diamond by so many regular players.

So what's the verdict? About 86 wins, which is right where Erik had us headed in January. I think this shows that even if Carpenter pitches a full season, our pitching staff is going to have to be much better than their projections for the Cardinals to have much of a shot at the Cubs. I anticipate Duncan, Greene, and Freese outperforming their CHONE projections, which would add maybe a win or two on offense.

What does everyone else think? Are there any corrections you would like to see made? Any other possible combinations of players you'd like to see added? All suggestions are welcome and I'll do my best to update the sheet as needed.

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they were better than their projections last year right?

4B - beer baseball bands blog

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 27, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Does your WAR calculation take defence into account?

I’m guessing the considerations for position players probably use UZR…. What are we projecting Skip’s defensive contribution to be at 2B? I reckon much more than -10 runs would be very optimistic. Perhaps even -10 is too much for a converted outfielder – he might be Jeff Kent bad…

As an aside, I’d wonder what our record would look like if you gave Ray Durham a big chunk of the ABs at 2B and bumped down Skip, Barden & Ryan’s? Could we add 2 wins doing that?

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 27, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have him at -10 runs in the sheet

Which is -1 win.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Durham is in a Cardinal uni

than Barden or Ryan probably won’t be. Ryan is out of options, so Barden probably gets sent down.

I’ll do another tab on the sheet and add in Durham to see what the difference would be.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats pretty cool

I can see you’re doing it now and the SS is updating in real time!

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 27, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Changes

I bumped Carp’s innings down to 150 and also realized I had the wrong ERA prediction in there so I changed that. Changing the leverages from Perez to Motte didn’t really do much.

Adding Durham makes us about 1 run better as a team if he gets 350 PA’s and hits his projections. That would make him a bargain if the Cardinals could get him for $3M since a win on the market is valued higher than that.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you mean "adding durham makes us one WIN better"?

by tom s. on Mar 27, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup...damn typos....

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also wonder if we’re being too optimistic about Carpenter’s innings (and capabilities during those innings) and the number of innings our best RPs will pitch. Additionally, it’s looking very much like Motte’s going to be the closer. That should swap his and Perez’s leverage numbers around.

Oh, and having checked out the SS I see that defence is included….

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 27, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another thing I'm wondering....

Have you done the sums right for the pinch hitters? Right now it looks like they’ve got a defensive component – I understand that’s correct for a full-time DH in terms of correcting for replacement level, but is that the correct for a pinch hitter (who will usually be hitting for the pitcher)?

At the moment, our DH slots are worth minus half a win, and we’re not taking pitcher hitting into account… If we never pinch hit for any pitcher and just let them take the ABs, by this algorithm we’re half a win BETTER. To me that seems somewhat counter-intuitive!

I wonder if you’ve also got too many PAs for Troy Glaus – looks like he’s a big question mark this year. However, the CHONE hitting projection for Freese looks crazy low – I can’t see how he can possibly be significantly worse than Jason LaRue??!! I’d have him somewhere in the .320 region I reckon. If he’s truly that bad then Mather will be getting all his ABs at 3B anyway, and we’ll probably end up calling up Allen Craig/giving some 3B ABs to Barden/Ryan.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 27, 2009 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They're correct now

The WAR column equals the Hit column. I had to adjust the DH algorithm in the final column for league average PH instead of DH’s, so .301 instead of .335.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While all of your last paragraph is true...

I have to keep things in perspective in terms of projections by using the same one for everybody. I don’t think Duncan gets as much time in left if his wOBA is .351 either, but I don’t get to make that decision.

Also, LaRue was a good hitting catcher once upon a time, and had a horrible slump last year which greatly deflated his numbers. He’s a solid backup backstop with the bat.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

He was the unluckiest cardinal last year by such a long shot. PrOPS has him unlucky to the tune of around .150 negative to his OPS.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Mar 27, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

per Sky, who created the sheet, we do not take pitcher batting into account, because over the course of the season it is equally awful for most all teams in the NL and doesn’t factor in the AL.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That seems reasonable

Also, I guess the projections for pitchers will be badly harmed by small sample size issues.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 30, 2009 5:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Than again

we have Waino :)

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 30, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And we also have Lohse

So I think they kind of cancel each other out, don’t they?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 30, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think when we had Looper too we could claim that our pitcher hitting was above average, not so much now. We’re probably about average.

I do subscribe to the belief that pitcher hitting can be somewhat underrated by sabermetrically-inclined folks though; not so much the abnormally good guys (Owings etc), but that the really atrociously BAD hitting pitchers can be worth nearly a win less than above-average ones over the course of a year (for instance, comparing Looper to Odalis Perez last year – both were back-of-the-rotation guys with mediocre stuff and similar records, Looper’s slightly better, but add in Looper’s decent hitting and Perez’s sucktacular bat and there’s well over 1 win difference between them – or about $5m in free agent value).

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 31, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could another system be included?

For fantasy purposes this year, I combined ZiPS and CHONE. Some of the projections were significantly different, and that seemed to mellow it out a bit. But this is a cool exercise. I appreciate it!

by aNdrOss on Mar 27, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do you mean add them together and divide by 2?

To get the mean of the averages?

Or a more scientific way?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did averages,

but I never thought of doing it a more scientific way. Obviously that would be better, but the amount of work issues are a factor as well. I would hate to ask somebody to do x hours more of work for my benefit.

by aNdrOss on Mar 27, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've combined James and CHONE in the past

weighting both equally. The more scientific was of doing it would be to take all of the projection systems and rank them by how accurate they’ve been over the last 3+ years or so, then weight them proportionately according to accuracy.

I got a spreadsheet from someone who did this last year and, looking back, it was a pretty accurate portrayal for the players with at least 3 years of big league service time, but it still missed Ryan Ludwick, obviously.

There’s really no way to do this and be completely within 2 standard deviations of the mean, because human performance isn’t something that can always be accurately measured by a model.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 30, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if it will make much difference

but the pitching innings don’t seem to add up correctly. I get a little over 158 nine inning games from 1425 innings. Last year’s number was 1454. The starter innings seem particularly light as they are 35 less than last year.

I don’t think the offensive numbers are far off, but I am not used to thinking in terms of wOBA. How many runs are we projected to score?

I hope the pitching numbers are quite a bit better as Wainwright, Lohse, and Wellemeyer are all projected to be worse. I think if Carp is able to stay healthy he will put up a better ERA than 3.76.

My totally unscientific projection is 91 wins.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Mar 27, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

pitching innings are uncertain.

you play 81 games at home and 81 games away. So, yeah, 162 × 9 = 1458 innings.

but you probably win a little better than .500 of the home games. say — 45. subtract my guess of 45 unplayed ninth innings, you get 1413. add on an unspecified number of extra innings for games that go 10, 12, 16 innings, and it can get hairy. you have other oddities like games called early for rain that can increase or decrease season-long innings.

i would aim at pitching 1440 innings, but it can be more or less.

by tom s. on Mar 27, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the projections have been pretty unkind to a lot of our hitters.

at least I hope that turns out to be true.

by TheBirds on Mar 28, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

But on the other hand you might argue that they’re potentially a bit kind to some of our pitchers. CHONE in particular seems to often over-rate pitchers and under-rate hitters in general.

Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.

by Felonius_Monk on Mar 30, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I’ve found in the past that combining CHONE and Bill James works pretty well in predicting performance, since James tends to overrate hitters and CHONE tends to overrate pitchers.

I just didn’t have the time to get that done while I was working on this.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 30, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs