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Updated WAR for the 2009 Cardinals

Back in January, Erik from FutureRedbirds (now residing at Beyond the Boxscore) took a look at the projected 2009 Cardinals by plugging them into Sky Kalkman's WAR spreadsheet to see how many wins, by WAR, the projected team looked to be worth.

I took the liberty of re-constructing that spreadsheet now that we have a better idea of what the depth chart is going to look like on opening day.  Again, I used CHONE for all projections.  Here are the changes I made:

 

  1. I removed Manning and Ring (although "Replacement" pretty well describes their talents, I think).
  2. Added in Dennys Reyes.
  3. Reduced the projected PA's for Glaus and added in PA's for Mather and Freese at 3B.
  4. Moved Skippy to 2B, removed Kennedy, and bumped up the PA's for Ryan and Barden, adjusting for late inning replacements and platoonage.  Same with Duncan, Mather, and Skip in LF.
  5. Penciled in a full season for Chris Carpenter and slightly increased Wainwright's innings while pushing Puppykicker's and Boggs' innings down.
  6. I spread Rasmus' PA's equally over CF and RF since I feel like he's going to be playing more corner outfield than originally projected as long as Ank stays healthy.
  7. Although league average wOBA for pinch hitters is around .301, I bumped the Cardinals' to .310 because of the depth on the bench and the fact that we're going to have some platoons where solid regulars like Duncan, Mather, and Skip are going to be getting some late inning AB's.  I also bumped down the PH numbers from 350 to 200 because of the platoons and movement around the diamond by so many regular players.

So what's the verdict?  About 86 wins, which is right where Erik had us headed in January.  I think this shows that even if Carpenter pitches a full season, our pitching staff is going to have to be much better than their projections for the Cardinals to have much of a shot at the Cubs.  I anticipate Duncan, Greene, and Freese outperforming their CHONE projections, which would add maybe a win or two on offense.

What does everyone else think?  Are there any corrections you would like to see made?  Any other possible combinations of players you'd like to see added?  All suggestions are welcome and I'll do my best to update the sheet as needed.

 

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