Shawn Hill.....

by Czechguardsman on Mar 19, 2009 8:49 PM EDT

It was a move so low-key that no one has even noticed it... Shawn Hill was released by the Nationals two days ago. He had only pitched in 2 games for the Nats in ST, starting 2 games and throwing up a scoreless frame each time. 2008 was supposed to be a breakout year for him but instead he posted an atrocious 5.83 ERA over 12 starts. His 2007, although shortened by injury, was fairly decent.

Hill has seemed like an underachiever who can't seem to stay healthy.; sort of like a lowercase Mark Prior. I'd like to get him out of Washington and see what he could do on a better team. He's attracting no interest so far as a FA so he could certainly be had on a minor league deal. Of course, the FOs and the fan base interest in SPs has seemingly waned what with Piniero's strong ST so far, but over 162 games, having a talented guy like Hill as 6th starter depth couldn't hurt.

The Nats released John Patterson last year in ST and he is seemingly out of Baseball. Is Hill done too? Or should he get another shot?

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I would definitely like to give Hill a chance

Some key stats from an article about him by BtB.

* K/BB: 1.94 — hmm, that’s not bad

* GB: 50 — that’s helped lead to a .74 HR/9

* FIP: 4.11 — huh, league average has been about 4.40

* tERA: 4.35 — that’s still above-average

* ERA: 4.93 — oh, er, yeah, I brought up the ERA

* BABIP: .324 — I’m starting to catch on that the Nationals haven’t caught on

* IP: 197 — ok, so he’s not the most durable guy

HIs CHONE projection calls for a 4.13 FIP next year, while Bill James loves him with a 3.84 FIP. That would make him better than Lohse projects to be next year. Hill’s high BABIP would probably improve in front of a solid Cardinals infield defense. Interestingly, his career stat line is very similar to Wainwrights in 07.

Hill (career): 206.1 IP, 17 HR, 67 BB, 130 K, 10 HBP; 4.06 FIP

Wainwright (2007): 202.0 IP, 13 HR, 70 BB, 136 K, 9 HBP; 3.90 FIP

Also, just for kicks, Hill in his career against the Cubs has a 3.00 ERA (small sample size be damned). This certainly seems like a great low risk-high reward move to make. GIT- ER-DONE Moz.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2009 1:52 AM EDT reply actions

"low risk-high reward"

+1. Let him be next year’s Ludwick.

"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd

by SleepyCA on Mar 20, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm probably the biggest follwer of the nats here

Shawn Hill is very much like prior talent wise, great command, location, repertoire of pitches, granted his DL stints are not by freak accidents but actual damage to his pitching arm/shoulder and the subsequent surgeries.

However, unlike prior he has never stayed healthy for 1 full season. And i fear Hill being like Clement was last year if the cards sign him (granted it would be to a minor league contract so the money isn’t too big a deal, even though the Nats owed him less than a million if he made the roster). If they realize in camp he needs more time (which he was already slated for with the Nats this spring) and isn’t effective down the road he won’t amount to a hill of beans later in the season.

And the Nats have kept Hill as a starter because his arm needs that recovery time that comes with a starting pitcher, being in the bullpen limits his ability to recover and pitch a side session between starts and rest another day. Hill wouldn’t function well in the pen with his arm tightening up the day after almost every start. (both his starts this year were only 1.0 IP and his arm tightened up the next day, to a point where the Nats held him out of any bullpen/throwing sessions for a few extra days)

One difference between Hill and Patterson is Hill is much more positive with his mindset on wanting to pitch, recover and get back into the game than patterson ever was. Any little discomfort, tightness, what have you and Hill always seemed to shut down but will always do his best to get back, so the gun-ho ability is there, it’s just a factor if the organization believes he’d contribute more effectively than our other AAA starters if someone goes down in the big league rotation (i do believe if healthy he’s a better alternative than Boggs or Walters for a call-up)

I would say that Hill is a low-risk-high-reward starting pitcher that the cards should sign to a minor league deal for insurance, but bet alot of other starter-depleted teams may sign him to a minor league deal also (even the nats)

Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.

by cardwash on Mar 23, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

At worst, is he a worse long man than thompson?

by tom s. on Mar 20, 2009 2:21 AM EDT reply actions

My ass is a better longman that Thompson

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I will lose my mind if Thompson starts the season on the 25-man as opposed to Perez or Motte.

by Czechguardsman on Mar 20, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Apparently

Motte is the front runner for the closer spot. Joe Strass reports:

Duncan confirmed Motte’s standing Wednesday, saying, "Anyone who’s been following what’s been going on would notice that among those receiving consideration [to close], Motte has been the most impressive. There’s a ways to go in camp. But that’s where it stands for me."

I’m actually not really sure what that means in terms of him actually getting the job, but it is a good sign that La Dunc feels good about him.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 20, 2009 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions

We should absolutely sign him

and allow him to be the long man — there’s no question he’s better than Thompson — and the first guy we turn to when we need a starter due to injury. He may get a better offer than that and, if so, fine but we’re going to need some starts from someone when Carp’s hurt and/or Pineiro fails and Hill would fit the bill just fine.

by chuckb on Mar 20, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

F.A.T.

I don’t see a real reason not to pick him up for cheap.

by mattybobo on Mar 20, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

Throw him a bone…minor league deal. Make the contract say something along the lines of: If he makes 15 starts in the bigs or pitches in 40 games at the ML level then he gets bumped up to a $1 million salary for this season.

by stlfan on Mar 20, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Nope.

That’s 206.1 IP IN FIVE YEARS…. all of them as a starting pitcher. He never had a year of bullpen service that Wainwright had. Hasn’t pitched over 147 IP since 2003 split between A+ & AA…
He’s also spent 306 days on the DL since 2006.
Avoiding injury might just be a skill.
PASS.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Mar 20, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

Not that the Nationals are the greatest organization in the world...

but they’ve been pretty spot on with dumping players before they become totally useless. Between them and the Orioles they have 5 total starters, so if they’re releasing a starter it’s got to be for a good reason. If he was any good he’d be their fifth starter going into the season I’d bet, and he looks pretty good so far this spring.

I’m not totally against a move, but I’d be very wary that something isn’t right with him. I haven’t seen John Patterson’s corpse re-surface yet, and he was a lot better pitcher than Hill when he was healthy.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 20, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

patterson

retired a few months ago. The Nats have a decent rotation this year if Jordan Zimmermann and Sharion Martis make the rotation. Zimmermann was dynamite this spring with his first runs against him coming from the cards last week, which was after 12-15 innings of shutout pitching. And Sharion has already gotten his feet wet in the majors so i can see him being a reliable #5 starter.

They’re not always the best at dumping players before they become worthless (Dimitri Young, and i’m just sadly waiting for nick johnson to go down with another injury sometime this season)

Cardwash Definition: Birds on the Nat.

by cardwash on Mar 23, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions