Quality Starts
by MRCARD on Mar 17, 2009 10:49 AM EDT
25 comments
When researching the Cardinals starting pitching staff over at Whiteyball, I found that the starters only had a 48% Quality Start Percentage in 2008. The following table shows our top 5 pitchers and a few durability stats:
| Pitcher | IP | QS | QS% |
| Kyle Loshe | 200.00 | 20 | 61% |
| Braden Looper | 199.00 | 15 | 45% |
| Todd Wellemeyer | 191.67 | 17 | 53% |
| Joel Pineiro | 148.67 | 12 | 48% |
| Adam Wainwright | 132.00 | 12 | 60% |
The 48% number was brought down by 19 starts pitched by below replacement level players who decreased the overall number greatly.
My questions to the VEB community are as follows:
1. Will the Cardinals improve on their quality start percentage in 2009? (Remember, they have Carpenter, but may even have less pitching depth due to injury concerns)
2. Of the 4 main starters from 2008, that are still on the team, who is most likely to improve?
3. Who is most likely to regress?
Click here for background on the Cardinals 2008 quality starts, along with a comparison to 2005.
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Difficult to predict, the future is
So sayeth Yoda.
For what its worth, I think St. Louis can anticipate at least a small improvement regarding quality starts. Wainwright’s injury was a freak occurrence, and he should provide steady numbers. Carpenter looks surprisingly strong thus far in Spring Training. I’m hoping for 20-25 starts from each of them.
Most likely regression: Lohse. No way he maintains the torrid pace of 2008.
Most likely to improve: Piniero. Has looked dominant in spring, and might end up rating as a #3 pitcher
by JWO on Mar 17, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Health is the Key
NL average for QS by staffs is 54%. If we raise ours that much, which we could very well due with a healthy Wainwright, then we’ll be in good shape.
I’m worried about The Colonel’s health. He hasn’t thrown that many pitches in quite a while, if at all, throughout his career. I hope he can hold up, but I’m not optimistic about it. I don’t need to comment on Carp’s health.
I feel that Wainwright’s percentage will go up because, as JWO noted above, his injury was flukish in nature. If El Pineiro has a QS% of over 50%, we should count our blessings.
I think that Lohse has decidedly shown a durability as a pitcher. He is the proverbial innings eater. He’s going to give you 170 to 200 innings, which is just about averaging a quality start every time out. His QS% should remain steady.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Mar 17, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Interesting that Looper was the lowest
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 17, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes
maybe this explains why they didn’t offer him arbitration…
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the guy get shelled in milwaukee
the only game I went to in person last season
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That turned out to be a smart move
We would have had to pay him nearly double what he got from the Brewers.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 17, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really think
there’s a good chance Wellemeyer might regress this year.
In 2008, although his peripherals were hurt somewhat by the starts he made (including the 22-2 loss to the Phillies) when injured, he was awfully lucky and probably not as good as his ERA suggested.
I like him and think he can be an above-average #4 but there’s a pretty good chance he won’t be as effective this year as he was last, even without the elbow trouble. And, as bgh noted, he hasn’t started much in his career and has carried and injury or two (a dicky elbow’s got to be a concern going into 2009, even if it has apparently healed), so it wouldn’t be that surprising to see him struggle to make 30 starts this year.
Pineiro is almost certain to be better – he was unlucky on balls in play and at holding runners last year (though being a poor pitcher that does tend to happen), and recorded one of the poorest years of his career. I’d expect him to continue to put up a FIP in the 4.80ish range, which isn’t bad at all for a #5.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 17, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick and Wellemeyer
will both be examined closely this year, because they both overperformed their projections by quite a bit, but both had changes in their game playing… Ludwick finally healthy, Welley finally got some control
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wellemeyer
Here’s what I think, and it really cuts one of two ways:
- If he’s healthy and himself, which he really wasn’t for about 12 of his starts last year (great analysis on that here), I think he has a chance at 20-22 quality starts. As you can see from the link, after the two times that The Colonel was injured last year it took him around 3-4 starts to get going again. It seems like his arm needs a certain amount of fatigue from pitching and the throwing program to get to the point where he finds his comfort level. Couple that with the two starts that he missed each time, and you have around 10-12 starts where he was either hurt or wasn’t throwing his game. You could make the statement that if he’s healthy all last year that he’s the Cardinals best pitcher and a solid #2 because you take away 3/4 of his non-quality starts and his one horrendous start against the Phillies.
- If he’s hurt at all this season and has to miss starts or go on the DL, he’s probably going to underperform last year’s numbers.
I just don’t see it going any other way — he’s either pretty good or worse than last year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Mar 18, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I don’t know about him being the number 2. By FIP and tRA* he was below average. Some of that you could chalk up to a couple of terrible starts, but he also allowed 21% line drives and a .273 BABIP. That is insanely lucky. He allowed more fly balls than ground balls which is never a good sign. By all accounts he was a below average pitcher last year, who just got really lucky on balls in play and was particualirly good at stranding runners. As the latter isn’t really a repeatable skill, he should be due for some major regression.
He still has some potential to improve, but I really don’t see him ever being as good as you think he could be.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 18, 2009 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should preface by saying I agree with the body of your comment
I think there’s a tendency to over-rate the Colonel here a little bit, given his peripheral skills.
I was just going to ask – I might’ve got this wrong here, but I thought a 21% LD% was more or less average. Obviously, his BABIP and strand-rate were very lucky last year though.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 18, 2009 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok...
but all of those stats you just stated also include the 10-12 starts I’m talking about. Not just a “couple of terrible starts”, but nearly 1/3 off his total starts on the season, most of which occurred directly before and after he missed time due to injury. As the linked post alluded to, Welley seems to be a creature of habit and when he gets out of his routine he struggles to find his way back for a couple of starts.
If you were able to isolate tRA* and FIP for just the other 2/3 of his starts, I think that those peripheral stats would probably improve, but I have no way to know, so this is just my educated guess.
We may overrate him a bit here, but I’m just going off of what I saw last season when he was on. He can be a very, very good pitcher when he has his good stuff and is keeping the ball in the strike zone.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Mar 18, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's pretty easy to do FIP
it’s just (13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K)/IP. In his first 13 starts of the season, right up to the PHI blowout, he had a 3.96 FIP w/ a .243 BABIP. After he came back from the 2 week break, he had a 4.69 FIP with a .262 BABIP.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
by SleepyCA on Mar 19, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
it’s easy to forget that the Colonel could have had a really really good season last year, but was hurt a bit.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 18, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same logic
This is how we always explain missing our earnings. If you ignore all the stupid things we did and only look at the good things, we beat our estimate. The trouble is, you always have bad things happen. You can’t just ignore them.
I tend to think Wellemeyer has quie a bit of runway because he is really only now putting it all together. I expect him big things from him this year.
Just win
by The Duke on Mar 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wellemeyer contradicts himself
He had a well above average ERA, but he only had an average amount of quality starts, but he got shelled in a couple of starts so you would expect his ERA to be high.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 18, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The quality start stat is stupid.
a pitcher could make a quality start every time, and finsih the season with a 4.50 era. That is not that great. all you have to do is pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs or less.
by ultimatecardinalfan on Mar 17, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't hold anything back!
Wow, no love for the quality start stat. Obviously nobody is going to pitch 30 starts and get exactly 3 ER in 6 IP. There would be a lot of value in someone that could do that, but it’s not going to happen. Check out the leaderboard for quality starts. Not a bad collection of starters.
I’m not saying that it is predictive, but it does have value by viewing the window of past results. Looper is the perfect example of why quality starts is an interesting stat to review. He had a roughly league average ERA (or ERA+ of 102, or WPA of 0.0 if you prefer), yet he didn’t keep his team in the game 55% of the time he started. QS isn’t the best statistic out there, but you shouldn’t be dismissive of any statistic, because most of them have some value when looked at through the right lens.
by MRCARD on Mar 17, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's kinda stupid
but this is really illustrating why the bullpen got so run down
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a pretty good stat to be honest.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 17, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like it as a statistic actually
It tells you a whole lot more than that Wins statistic does about player performance — we actually replaced Wins with Quality Starts in one of my fantasy baseball leagues last year and everyone liked it a whole lot more because the pitcher has control over it — the team doesn’t have to score runs for him to get a quality start.
I think it does tell you a couple of things analytically:
- The pitchers who have the most quality starts are usually #1 or #2 starters — so for the most part they are pretty good pitchers. Obviously that makes sense: mediocre pitchers are going to be less consistent at getting to 6 innings in every start (look at Piniero), and they also are going to have a lot of starts where they give up more than 3 runs.
- It may not be predictive, but you could total up the three year average of quality starts by your pitching staff and come up with a reasonable estimate for how taxed your bullpen might be. You can see why the Cardinal bullpen was so taxed last year when you look at the numbers for Looper, Piniero, and Wainwright’s replacements last season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Mar 18, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ewh
last year’s percentage corresponded directly to Pinata’s.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 17, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
League average for rotation spots
We know that Waino’s injury prevented him from having roughly 8 more QS. The question in my mind is what was the league average for the different rotation spots. With Waino limited to 12 and the replacement level pitchers that started in his stead explains all the bullpen woes. I’m not sure that Piniero’s QS explains the bullpen woes to the degree that Waino’s loss does.
by OldieWan on Mar 17, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look closely at the '08 numbers
it is kind of interesting to see what effect Busch III had on each pitcher’s numbers. Of the four returning starters only Wellemeyer fared better on the road than at home. His splits were as follows (home first):
W/L: 9-7…4-2
ERA: 4.33…2.98
OPSa: .780….654
QS: 39…71%
Starts: 14…18
Even if you subtract out the June 13 debacle vs. the Phillies he still was much better away from home.
The other three were much, much better at home (home stats still first):
Pineiro
W/L: 3-1…4-6
ERA: 4.05…5.76
OPSa: .761….893
QS: 63…41%
Starts: 8…17
Wainer
W/L: 7-1…4-2
ERA: 2.63…4.05
OPSa: .660….728
QS: 82…44%
Starts: 11…9
Lohse
W/L: 8-2…7-4
ERA: 3.32…4.43
OPSa: .671….816
QS: 72…53%
Starts: 18…15
I am not sure what predictive value this may have as we still play 81 games at home and 81 games on the road, but it looks like giving Pineiro more starts at home might help as his home HR/9 was .85 and his away HR/9 was 1.61. Kind of odd that only 8 of his 25 starts last year were at home.
I think the overall QS% will go up as Pineiro will pitch better, Welley will go deeper into games, and Wainer will stay healthy. Carp + any necessary replacements should do better than Looper.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Mar 17, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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