League Average 2B?

by IL and StL Fan on Mar 16, 2009 1:42 AM EDT

In search of a league average 2nd baseman.

Question: Will Skip Schumaker be a league-average 2B this year?

Further Question: What is a league-average 2B, anyway?

Trying to answer Question 2, I looked at who played 2B for MLB teams last year, and used wOBA and UZR/150 to gauge how they performed offensively and defensively. Then I took averages (arithmetic means) and medians, and tried to see who (offensively, defensively, and combining the two together) were the league-average 2B last year.

(All stats are from Fangraphs. I didn't count anyone who played in less than half the games last year. That did include several players who were utility players, or who played other positions than 2B. But, these are who play 2B for a lot of MLB teams. If I am including Utley and Pedroia, I think I need to include them, too. I'm looking for an average. There were 39 players considered, in all. All stats are 2008 only, and UZR/150 is taken only for the players time at 2B.)

League Average 2B by wOBA:

The average (arithmetic mean) for the 2B I looked at was 0.333. The median was 0.328.

The closest 2B around the median were:

Aaron Miles (0.331)

Mark Grudzielanek (0.329)

Felipe Lopez (0.328--taking WAS and STL combined)

Howie Kendrick (0.328)

Mark Loretta (0.326)

Jeff Kent (0.326)

League Average 2B by UZR/150:

The average (arithmetic mean) for the 2B I looked at was 1.4. The median was -0.9.

The closest 2B around the median were:

Howie Kendrick (0.8)

Ray Durham (0.7)

Freddy Sanchez (-0.7)

Jamie Carroll (-1.0)

Alexei Casilla (-2.0)

League Average 2B by combining wOBA and UZR/150:

I used Dan Cameron's formula to convert wOBA to runs above or below average, given in his blog post on Fangraphs about Replacement Level 2B. It is ((wOBA-0.330)/1.20)*600. UZR/150 computes defensive runs gained or lost above average. I took these two stats, both in runs, both adjusted for a full year (more or less), both referenced to "average," and added them together.

The league average 2B (offense and defense combined) had an average (arithmetic mean) total of 3.1. The median was 1.7.

The 2B who were closest to the median were:

Kaz Matsui (2.6)

Orlando Cabrera (1.9)

Aaron Miles (1.7)

Howie Kendrick (-0.2)

Mark Loretta (-1.2)

Back to my original question, it seems that if Schumaker is going to be a league-average 2B, he will have to have a combined offense and defense that would be at least in the Mark Loretta range. Skip's wOBA last year was 0.341. That translates into 5.5 runs above average (that means he would be comparable to Joe Inglett, offensively, as a 2B.).

Therefore, he would need to lose no more than 6.7 runs defensively. The comparable 2B to that (and there are several much worse ones in MLB) are Matzui and Cano.

Some Notes:

1. Typing this data into Excel, I noticed how much UZR/150 varies from season to season for the same player. Much more than any offensive stat. It is the best metric I have access to for defense, but I just have a hard time believing that players' defensive performance really is that variable.

2. A replacement level 2B (according to Cameron) has a wOBA of .306 and a UZR/150 of -5. In case you are wondering, Brendan Ryan performed worse than that last year when he was a 2B. He projects to do better, and think he should, but he did not show it.

3. Adam Kennedy had a combined total of 9.7, but almost all of that was from his defense, which, as I noted above, varies like a yo-yo. Felipe Lopez was considerably below average (-4.7), taking into account the whole year.

4. I did not include baserunning. Feel free to add it in, if you want.

5. If my methodology is faulty, please let me know. I'll correct it as soon as I can.

On sum, it seems to me that if Schumaker can slip in above the Matsui/Cano line as a 2B defender, and maintain his hitting, he should do OK. Otherwise, we might have been better off keeping Mighty Mouse.

What say you?

Poll

Will Skip Schumaker:

Be a LF this year.

1 votes

Be a league-average 2B this year.

54 votes

Not be a league-average 2B this year (and it was not worth it to try)

7 votes

Not be a league-average 2B this year (and it was worth it to try).

47 votes

109 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 9 comments | 4 recs |

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Comments

Good post

About UZR, you should check out this. It is basically an age regression for UZR. We can conclude that Kennedy’s huge defensive season was most likely an outlier or the product an inherent flaw in the fielding metrics. Given the uncertainty about defense, I would take a good offense, bad defense guy over a good defense, bad offense guy.

I voted that Schu wouldn’t be league average, but it was worth a try. If he is able to transition to second to where he is only a few runs below average, than his bat would make him a ~league average player. If he really struggles on defense, then we platoon Thurston and Ryan and trade Schu, because I really don’t want to see him in the OF.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 16, 2009 2:08 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks

Some of the variation would be age related (Grudz, for example), but others seemed to yo-yo by +/- 10 runs in a way I couldn’t account for.

Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.

by IL and StL Fan on Mar 16, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

Ooops..should have been a reply to vivaelpujols

Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.

by IL and StL Fan on Mar 16, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Basically flipped a coin to decide between options 2 and 4

I think it was worth a try, but I just have no idea whether he’ll work out or not.

by TheBirds on Mar 16, 2009 7:46 PM EDT reply actions

i think

they are simply asking too much of peanut. more poor strategy again from management. why not start this last fall? don’t know, but for peanut, it’s just not enough time. watched today (from behind home) and yesterday (along right field). he still doesn’t get a good jump on the ball. i think it will take quite a bit more time for him to “see” the game as he needs to from 2nd.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Mar 16, 2009 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

really enjoyed this post

I’ve been bothered by the year-to-year variations in UZR, too. As a practical matter, I strongly agree w/ viva that a player w/ good offensive stats is inherently a safer choice than a good fielder, especially one w/ fluctuating ratings. I hate saying that because I enjoy watching good fielding even more than good hitting….

"To Mozeliak I ride, on the next Greyhound!"

by random on Mar 16, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

The people at Fangraphs

Say you need a 3 year aggregate for defensive stats, if I remember right. I guess you could look at someone who regularly varies above average (even the poor years are still above average) and think that’s a fielder you can count on. Or the inverse. Maybe there needs to be a 3-year version of UZR?

But just to give an example, I hesitated to give Cano as an example of how well Skip probably needs to field, because Cano in 2007 was an above average fielder accd to UZR/150. In 2008, he basically stunk.

Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.

by IL and StL Fan on Mar 16, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a good, practical approach

I spend a lot of time trying to follow what the guys at Fangraphs and BtB are saying and from what I understand, moving avg is definitely a tool of choice for smoothing data w/ high variance.

Besides being bothered by the variance itself (I have trouble accepting the number for chances in a single season is too small or sigma values for the act of fielding are that high), and the yo-yo’ing, I think there’s another problem possible in that moving averages work best with long records, but the average length of a MLB career is fewer than six years for which you can get only four values. It’s the best we’ve got for now, though.

"To Mozeliak I ride, on the next Greyhound!"

by random on Mar 17, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Skip will be fine!

Are playoff hope is not made or broken by the success of our second basemen. If we do make it to October it will be on the backs of Pujols, Glaus, Ankiel, Ludwick, and a good pitching staff. When we were successful earlier this decade, we had a different shortstop and second basemen in there every other year. We never missed a beat then and this year will be nothing different.

In my opinion the last thing our front office should do now is spend money on a second basemen. If we have any money left we should spend it on more pitching because that is one thing you can never have too much of.

by sharpwp on Mar 19, 2009 9:03 AM EDT reply actions