K's, KMac, and the Keystone
by chuckb on Feb 8, 2009 11:16 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Print| result | |
|---|---|
| Wainer | 70 |
| Lohse | 50 |
| Welley | 50 |
| Pineiro | 50 |
| Boggs | 30 |
| KMac | 50 |
| Franklin | 50 |
| Motte | 50 |
| Perez | 70 |
| Miller | 40 |
| Thompson | 30 |
| Kinney | 50 |
| Carp | 70 |
| Carp’s innings | 119 |
Today I think we were a little more realistic. The 40 next to Miller’s name indicates that there was a tie between 50 and under. Erik can decide how he wants to handle that. I was surprised, given all the love on this board for Kinney and Motte, that their projections were not more optimistic (though I think their 50% projections are pretty optimistic) and a little surprised there’s so much love for Perez. I like Perez, too, but I’d be surprised if his ERA ended up in the low 3’s. Speaking of Kinney, I went w/ the ZIPS projection yesterday b/c I wasn’t (for some reason) able to access the new PECOTA spreadsheet. Talk about an optimistic projection for Kinney! If I had gone w/ that one – ERA of 3.19 and 48 Ks in 51 IP – I suppose there would have been a lot more "under"s. I hope Erik’s got enough info to get him going here. Thanks to him for letting us be involved.
Now that Randy Wolf has signed, I was going over this list of the still unsigned free agent pitchers over at mlbtraderumors and trying to see if there was anyone there worth having. Apparently we have some interest in Kris Benson, who was terrible for the Phillies’ AAA team last year. Remember, that’s the international league, not the PCL. Not sure why there’s any interest on our part. Isn’t Boggs or Todd a better option – or at least just as good? They’re close and I’d much rather see what we have in our system than offer some starts to a 33 year old retread like Benson.
Anyway, it appears as though our old friend Braden Looper is the top name on the list. Sheets is hurt and Schilling’s old. Suffice to say, there are no difference makers on the list. I believe we could sign Looper today if we wanted to. I’d rather give him 1 year and $6 M than give Kris Benson a minor-league contract but neither is a very good option, IMO. Looper’s at best a 2 win player – not a difference maker, and not the difference between making the playoffs and not. It’s been a long time getting me to this point, but I’m starting to believe that the best option for the 5th starter role, in the eventuality that Carp is unavailable for much of the season, is already on the roster. He’s one Kyle McClellan. Yes, his departure would make the pen slightly worse but, with the emergence of Motte and Perez and the health (God-willing) of Josh Kinney, we’ve got the depth to support moving KMac to the rotation.
AZ has been a big supporter of this move for some time and Dunc said recently that he’s going to prepare KMac to start. If his arm won’t hold up – he did tire and lose effectiveness toward the end of last season – he can return to the pen. If it does, we’ve got a solid middle-to-back of the rotation starter for next to nothing. I’d rather trade Ankiel for Andy Sonnastine but that horse left the barn some time ago.
Matthew Leach has a fairly interesting read over at the Cards’ page on Kennedy’s competition at 2B. It mentions Joe Thurston, Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden, and Skip. No mention of LaRussa’s plan to have Joe Mather take some balls at the keystone. I also read over at mlbtraderumors how Ray Durham is contemplating retirement since nobody loves him. Durham’s always been a hitter and never been a fielder though, according to UZR, he was basically an average fielder last year. That’s still 2 wins worse than Kennedy just on defense alone. There’s probably no need for Durham considering the players we have available and the fact that he’s not that much better than Kennedy at the plate to justify the defensive loss. Add to that the fact that any playing time Durham would get in the spring would take time away from any of the others at the keystone and I say – veto!
This whole "let’s move Skip and Mather to 2nd" thing has always seemed pretty absurd to me. You move players the other direction on the defensive spectrum, not toward SS and 2B. Additionally, Mather’s like 9 feet, 25 inches tall and built like an NFL tight end. Anybody else in the majors built like Apollo playing 2B? Skip LOOKS like a 2B but has been moved from middle infield to the OF. That doesn’t portend well for a move back to the middle infield. To me, it sounds a lot like the idea I had (kidding, of course…mostly) back in the early to mid-90’s when we had no pitching and were rotating Lankford, Gilkey, Whiten, and Jordan in the OF. My idea was to have each one of them pitch every 4th day so that we’d at least be able to get all their bats in the lineup on the same day. They couldn’t be any worse than Rene Arocha or Omar Olivares.
But Skip and Joe are considerably better hitters than the other guys – especially Mather…potentially, anyway. The question then becomes, "How well would these guys have to hit in order to justify their almost certain horrific defense at the keystone?" A player’s value, in terms of runs, can be figured by adding their wRAA, their UZR, their position and the replacement value of that position. The ability to play 2B would increase both Skip’s and Mather’s value but their defense would, as I said, likely be horrific.
Let’s assume that they are as bad defensively as the worst 2B in the league last year – Jeff Kent. Kent’s UZR/150 was -15.5 runs. Let’s also assume that last season’s defensive performance by Kennedy was an aberration. He’s always been a pretty good defensive player but last year he was the best in the bigs. His career UZR/150 is 9.9 – about 1 win above average – so let’s go w/ that number rather than the 22.2 he posted last year. I’m going to use their Chone projections for wRAA and expand them to reflect 600 PAs – a full season – in order to be consistent w/ using UZR/150 for defense.
| wRAA | UZR/150 | positional adjustment | replacement level | total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy | -10.3 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 20 | 22.1 |
| Skip | 0.2 | -15.5 | 2.5 | 20 | 7.2 |
| Mather | 7.7 | -15.5 | 2.5 | 20 | 14.7 |
If each meets their 50% Chone offensive projections, Mather and Skip are going to have to be much closer to average defensive players in order to justify any real playing time at the keystone. Kennedy’s nearly a win better than Mather b/c of the 2.5 win difference in their defensive abilities. Yes, Mather’s a much better hitter but not enough to compensate for the difference in what will likely be their defensive abilities. It wouldn’t surprise me if Skip is a better defensive player than Jeff Kent but his offensive abilities aren’t nearly what Mather’s are. The difference between Kennedy’s runs and Skip’s are almost exactly the difference between Skip’s defensive projection and the average 2B. That’s what Skip will have to be – an average defensive player at 2b – in order to justify taking any playing time from Kennedy. It doesn’t make him better. It makes him equal to Kennedy. I don’t mind seeing what they’ve got this spring but I think we’re deluding ourselves if we think that either Skip or Mather is going to win the 2b job and keep it throughout the season.
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Bombs and Skippy
I think the Skip at second is worth experimenting with, but I doubt it will even come close to working. The Mather idea is patently absurd. He’s a huge man, and I don’t think setting up a huge man at second to try and turn DP’s is the best of ideas.
Bottom line is this: both guys are outfielders and probably always will be. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Skippy become some kind of average fielder at second…but that isn’t happening.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 8, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions
2nd Base
I’ll probably get lambasted for saying this but I’m looking forward to what Kennedy is going to do this year. His defense is obviously great and we’ve shown how important that is to the team and compared it to potential replacements, but it’s his contract year and it’s going to be very important for him to come into camp hitting the ball well and carry that into the season. I’m going to do my best to stay calm and relaxed the first time he rolls over a ball and it dribbles towards first base, but how long do we wait? Fortunately I think we have options to make some deals if some of these things don’t work out, so at this point I’m not that worried. Especially considering the Cubs have increased payroll and decreased their talent, Peavey-less of course.
SF CARDS FAN
the thing with Kennedy
that irks me (among others) is that he is a one position player. HE is the reason for FOUR MIs, in my opinion. He gobbles up too much space (on the roster) .
One might argue that Greene ameliorates that situation (because he will probably be a 145-game or so starter at SS) but I still don’t think so. The very thought of a ‘back-up’ second baseman means, to me, the roster balance is probably out of whack
I agree with you
I still have some bias of Kennedy’s abilities based on his seasons in Anaheim (I live in LA so I watched a lot of there games). With the Angels he was between a 2.9 and 3.8 WAR player from 02-05. In those years, while he still had the great defense that he has now, his hitting was above average as well. I don’t think that he can be an above average hitter anymore (although is game tying double off of Paplebon still leaves an impression in my head), but I do think that he may manage not to be terrible. If he is able to be within 5 runs of average that would make him a very valuable player next year.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 8, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
That's funny
That’s the one play that keeps sticking in my head for optimism towards AK. I vividly remember that double off Papelbon.
Sign Ben Sheets!
KMac
I would also like to see KMac get some starts during ST. I’d rather see what he has to offer than see Pinata get wacked around for another whole season. He’s just not good.
I’m not terribly optimistic about the experiment considering McClellan’s injury history and the fact he hasn’t been a starter for years. It’s still worth trying though, and I’ll be thrilled if it works out.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 8, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions
i believe duncan said
that kmac would be in the st rotation through at least 3 turns, at which point they woulde evlaute his role.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
yes
pitching on the same days as carpenter so he can take his spot if need be.
"So in first grade it was tell about your dad day. Most of the kids came up and said "my daddy’s a doctor" or "my daddy’s a lawyer" or anything like that. Then, it was little Billy’s turn. Little Billy got up in front of his whole class and said "my daddy is an exotic dancer for other men. He performs sex shows for other men and then goes home with them and takes money to do what they ask him to!" His teacher was very shocked, and took him out in the hall. "Why did you say such things?" she said to little Billy. "Well, really, my dad is a Cubs player, but I was too embarrassed to say it in front of the class." - Mr Redbird, from the TESS thread
Youneverknow...
While I think it’s unlikely that either Skip or Joey Bombs makes the transition to 2B, it’s something the Cards can play around with in ST.
Joey Bombs is 6’ 4", 195… The “big” second-basemen I can recall offhand (Ryne Sandberg, Bobby Grich) were no taller than 6’ 2". The only 6’ 4" middle infielder I found in a quick look was some guy named Ripken. (Heck, “Slats” Marion, considered “too tall” to be a shortstop in his day, was a “towering” 6’ 2"!)
Skippy has never played anywhere but the outfield in pro ball; while George Kissell and Red Schoendienst were able to make a strong-armed third baseman out of a strong-armed right fielder named Mike Shannon, playing 2B is an entirely different kettle of fish!
The biggest question I have about K-Mac is his health; can he stay healthy (and effective) as a starter? At this point, not even The Shadow knows!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
ARod
is listed as being 6’3", and was a pretty decent SS.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 8, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Kent
also is 6’2", and his horrible 2008 2b rating might be a product of his size, but his age definitely came into play, too. Of course, there’s Amaury Cazana Marti, listed as only 6’ and an outfielder, but we all know that he is actually a god-like 8’ tall, and plays the whole field by himself.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 8, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
I think
Jose Oquendo could have ME playing league average second base for our redbirds. And I’m fat and old. :)
I think it’s a good idea to have Skip dabble in it this year with the hopes that maybe he could possibly be good enough to take over in 2010
Disagree.
We will have other, better options available by that time.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 8, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Glaus at 2nd
I think Glaus at second sounds like yet a better idea. Especially if one of Freese/Craig/Walrus start off hot at third. Glaus has around 100 innings of SS under his belt and played there 2-3 years ago while with Toronoto. Surely 2nd base would be easier than SS. I think he could be a Jeff Kent type. No defense, big offense. Our offense would take a big leap forward. Of course for this to happen one of the above mentioned three has to step up this spring.
cromit
a 6’5", 245 lb 2nd basemen. awesome.
"So in first grade it was tell about your dad day. Most of the kids came up and said "my daddy’s a doctor" or "my daddy’s a lawyer" or anything like that. Then, it was little Billy’s turn. Little Billy got up in front of his whole class and said "my daddy is an exotic dancer for other men. He performs sex shows for other men and then goes home with them and takes money to do what they ask him to!" His teacher was very shocked, and took him out in the hall. "Why did you say such things?" she said to little Billy. "Well, really, my dad is a Cubs player, but I was too embarrassed to say it in front of the class." - Mr Redbird, from the TESS thread
wowzers
talk about fearful runners going into second when he covers (if he can beat them to the bag!)
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
i was wondering why no love for ray durham
but then i remembered he’s a butcher @ 2b
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
I wonder why
there’s no love for Grudzielanek. I suppose the truth is that he’s old and only marginally better than the Brian Bardens that each organization has.
don't count ME out
I’ve been campaigning for a Grudz return ever since he left; his presense in the clubhouse along would be a plus.
BUT… the window may have passed on that. Too bad.
Me three.
I’m a big Grudz fan. Talk about gritty!
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 8, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
if kennedy gets anywhere close to how good he was at defense last year
and does a little better at offense this year, there’s very little question as to if he should be playing. I do like the idea of testing schu to see if he has any ability to stick there for 2010, or to fill in for kennedy if he needs an off day. I’d rather see Boggs or another young starter (or trade for a starter before the trade deadline) than see McClellan starting… unless of course he does really well in ST, then what the hey
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 8, 2009 2:31 PM EST reply actions
What about net offensice gain...
I’m not really trying to argue for skip being a real answer at second… but what if we considered the net offensive gain created by moving him to second and opening up a corner outfield slot to move Ankiel into…. which opens up a slot for Rasmus / Mather. I really don’t think there would be much if any loss defensively in left field by slotting mather / ludwick into the position.
Just thinking that the gain / loss at second alone isn;t the whole picture here… most of it, yes, and most important especially with our pitch to contact, groundball inducing staff.
on a side note...
I think Kennedy in his walk year, will have a pretty solid season this year. He will be another year removed from his knee injuries and I think he will have likely solidified his base and core this off-season. I think he is now out to prove himself amid all of this abusrdity of talk at putting outfielders at “HIS” position.
This is assuming that the season with LaRussa doesn’t drive the man in-sane. Of all of the potential scenarios I think the one I like the most is the thought of Moving Glaus over to second once he comes back and Keeping the Walrus at third, following his Pujolsesquian pimping of the third base batting order spot. Save that I think the most likely to happen option is Ryan.
just think,
Rasmus
Ankiel
Pujols
Wallace
Ludwick
Glaus
Greene
Wainwright / Pitcher
Molina
not gonna happen but d@mned
who needs infield defense
when you score 1000 runs, eh?
Probably work best if we sign a bunch of fly ball pitchers, as well.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
molina as a second leadoff???
Probably better swiich the pitcher back to 9th or put greene there
Is it weird that I would rather the payroll be more like the Marlins than the Yankees?
by ForesterShane on Feb 8, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
It is the whole picture
b/c I see Rasmus taking Skip’s playing time anyway. If Rasmus is an improvement over Skip, he should be in the lineup regardless of whether or not Skip can beat out Kennedy at 2b. The question here is — does Skip represent an improvement over Kennedy at 2nd and it’s hard to fathom a scenario where he does. If the point is — Kennedy is better than Skip at 2nd but Rasmus is better than Skip in the OF so we should downgrade at 2nd in order to upgrade in the OF — that’s silly. Kennedy and Rasmus will be better than Skip and Rasmus and better than Kennedy and Skip.
Skip in all likelyhood
Won’t be better than Kennedy this year. The difference in defense far outweighs the offensive upgrade. If Skip has options left then I like the idea of sending him to AAA to be the second baseman so that he might be able to fill the role in 2010. Either way I don’t think Skip should be on the roster if he isn’t a second baseman.
vivaelbeñsheets
I don't think the point is to...
make Mather into a “starting” 2bagger. I think the point with him (and the Cobbler) is to see if they are passable enough so that Mo can justify keeping 6 outfielders and 3 MI’ers.
Six outfielders – Lud, Ank, Cobbler, Mather, Duncan, (Barton or Rasmus)
Three MI’ers – Kennedy, Greene, (Ryan or Thurston)
Duncan is backup 1B, Mather can backup third (as can Ryan/Thurston), and Schu/Mather help out in a pinch at 2b.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 8, 2009 3:01 PM EST reply actions
I hate to even think about
creative ways to allow 6 OFs on the roster. It’s just absurd, Moz has got to get rid of one or more of these OFs.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 8, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with McGee
and is my logic wrong?:
KENNEDY is the REASON we NEED FOUR middle infielders!
No Kennedy, no all-caps.
I'm not sure I see the logic.
If you have a 2nd baseman and a shortstop, plus one bench player that can defend either position, then that = 3 middle-infielders. Why would you need a fourth?
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 8, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
he's talking more on the lines of
Kennedy
Izturis
Miles
Lopez
we saw last year
Countdown to world series #11
263 days
by bearcatcardfan on Feb 8, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
I know we saw it
And it seemed a horrible way to construct a team at the time. Sometimes they were in the outfield.
Why would you carry the 4th MI? Just so that the manager can break his own record with line-up combinations?
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 8, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I'll be stunned
if Duncan is the backup 1B. I believe Mather will beat him out and be the backup 1B and backup 3rd behind Freese, Craig or Wallace — whoever wins the 3B job in the spring. Then, in all likelihood, when Glaus returns from injury, the 3rd sacker who won the job in the spring becomes the backup at 1st, if not Mather. Duncan gets traded for table scraps in the spring or is the PTBNL in the Khalil Greene trade.
in all honesty, i can't see a time when Dunk isn't in the Cardinals organization
he simply has too many people in his corner that hold too much power within the organization that want him on the team. if he is ever put on the trading block, those with the power will want far too much in return for him. so i really can’t see him being moved. the only way he’s gone is if he is physically unable to play. and since he was playing with a freaking broken neck last season, i’d hate the see the injury that finally ends his playing career with the Cards.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
You're overstating.
Exactly how many of these alleged people are there in “his corner”? You might assume that TLR and Dunc Sr. are, but who else?
And if I was Dunc Sr. (who, by the way, has stated in an interview that he won’t be upset if his son is traded), I’d want my boy to go wherever he can get the most PT, i.e., have the best shot at a long and successful ML career. And as things stand right now, I’ve gotta believe there are other ML teams that could give Chris more ABs than he’s likely to see in STL. I need to see a little evidence of this organization-wide bias in favor of CD, as opposed to winning games.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 8, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
i don't know what team you've been paying attention to
but bias towards Baby Dunk has already cost the Cards wins. TRL will always play him over other, possibly better players. always.
see Ludwick, Ryan early last season when he was putting up MVP #’s.
do not get me wrong, i’ve always been a big Baby Dunk fan. but the dude hasn’t been healthy in a while & i’m scarred Tony will keep running him out there even if he can’t do what he once was capable of.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I think that Duncan should be in AAA
He should be able to prove for at least part of a season that he is healthy and effective again. Then we could either trade him or keep him as insurance for injuries/trades.
vivaelbeñsheets
I completely agree
and I also think the chance he will be in AAA is about the same as the chance that Skip will win a gold glove at 2B in 2009.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Actually, the last scenario is impossible
Lil Dunc can’t be the PTBNL as that player must change leagues (and, it was noted at the time, that the list from which the Pads will pick were all players not then on the 40 man roster.)
by ArkansasTravs on Feb 8, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
so, found some more information about skip's move to the OF
I googled this pretty thoroughly last year and couldn’t find much, but there’s more information available now about Skip than there was then, it seems. it appears that skip has never played IF professionally, or even in college, after his freshman year. He pitched and played some infield for Loyola-Marymount his freshman year, putting up a ~.600 OPS, and then transferred to UCSB after his freshman year due to a personality conflict with the Loyola head coach (which interestingly enough seemed to center around moving skip to the OF):
" "It just wasn’t a good fit for me at Loyola," Schumaker said. "I decided it was better to leave early than stay and hope things got better."Schumaker said a personality conflict developed between him and Loyola Coach Frank Cruz.
"We recruited him as a shortstop, which is where he played in high school, but we wanted to move him to the outfield," Cruz said. "We decided he just didn’t have the hands to play shortstop."
ack. maybe this won’t work after all…
Anyway, we’ll never know if it was just that coach or if he really is a bad infielder, because while he was moved to the outfield at Loyola, not UCSB, he stayed in the OF at UCSB because the team already had two stars entrenched at SS/2B. UCSB’s SS, Chad Peshke, was a 4-year starter who led the team in HR’s and OPS the two previous years. The second baseman, Jeff Bannon, was also a 4-year starter, a senior, coming off a great year where he starred for the forresters and won the league MVP of the cape cod league. Skip wasn’t going to take a middle infield job from one of those guys.
So he stayed in CF, surprised everyone by batting .400 his junior year (his first full year of college ball, since he got hurt his sophomore year and only played in 5 games), and was drafted as a CF. He has never, ever been an infielder in pro ball. He was not “drafted as an infielder”, as has been erroneously reported many times.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
forget about Skip at 2B
it looks like we should try him out as our 5th starter*
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
thnx everyone for the help with the projections
good job overall. i’m glad to have the feedback and not just rely on my own hunches.
however, i do think some of the optimism may have to be tapered down for some of the hitters. i’ll figure something out. 119 innings from carp might put the team at 90 wins, once i do all the crunching.
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
when do you plan on doing the next round of projections
sometime during spring training? A couple weeks in might just temper some of our optimism
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
yeah, maybe
i’ve sort of waffled back and forth, but for now i think i’ll just use them, with a little adjustment here and there. actually, i’m feeling pretty sunny about the team myself. i really think 90 wins are quite possible if things break right. right now i just went and updated with 50 percentile chones for everyone and got 89 wins. all i changed with 100 plate appearances of skip at 2b, 100 innings of carp and i added some runs to ankiel and ludwick’s defense in order to account for their arms.
i think the yahoos at cards talk are going to look pretty stupid after this season is over with, we’ll see.
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
I don't read 'em
what are they predicting over there?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 9, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Rene Arocha
I woke up this morning hoping I would hear/read something about Rene Arocha…thank you, Chuck!
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
Pitchers and catchers
report this Friday! Can’t wait!
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 8, 2009 11:17 PM EST reply actions
A little more realistic?
I don’t see where the community projections for the hitters were all that far off. The projection systems essentially show every returning Cardinal player having a worse year than in 2008. How realistic is that? Not very, I hope, or I’ll be anxiously awaiting the start of the football season by the all-star break.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
ludwick
wellemeyer, lohse are all due to regress some, just to name a couple.
i also have a hard time believing colby will post a .810 OPS in his rookie season, or wainwright having an ERA of 3.39. we’ll see
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
I really don't see why Lohse will regress
He really did look like a different pitcher in 08 than in any other year, and his peripherals back it up. Many pitchers under Dunc have gone from below average starters to good starters. See Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan and Chris Carpenter. I don’t see why Lohse couldn’t at least be the next Woody circa 2003. He certainly showed flashes of excellence last year.
vivaelbeñsheets
I dunno...
He improved because he didn’t give up as many home runs as in past years. Was that a fluke, or something he indeed learned from Duncan (the pitch to contact thing, letting them hit it, but keeping it low)?
We’ll see. But I think it could go either way, honestly.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
st. louis park factor
probably why he didn’t give up as many hr
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 10, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
And our quality defense definitely helped his ERA
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 10, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
i emailed chuck
the results. i won’t spoil his fun in revealing the results, but the what i called optimism is just that. the results call for a quite a lofty win total, one that should overtake those northsiders.
then again, who saw 2004 coming?
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
ME!
of course i’m biased. those wee baby bears won’t know what hit em.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
105 wins baby!
And Pujols (Pujols), Ankiel (Edmonds) and Glaus (Rolen) each OPS over 1.000.
vivaelbeñsheets
kennedy
supposedly the cards are releasing kennedy today and assuming his salary
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