2B/OF Schumaker +
by JoeyBombs on Feb 4, 2009 11:17 PM EST
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If Skip Schumaker could play average defense at second base, he would be a great choice as our next second baseman.
I used a couple of basic hitting sabermetrics to determine his runs created and I also used a linear weight formula to compare him to second basemen around the majors from 2008. The stats I calculated must be fairly accurate because they said the Pujols was the best hitter in the National League (and the majors) and Pedroia was the best hitter in the American League.
The linear weight said that Schumaker would be the 5th best hitting 2B in the Nationals and 11th in the majors. The runs created stat said he would be 4th best in the Nationals and 9 in the majors. The only better option that we might have a chance at would be Jose Lopez which I would recommend we do if we can get a good deal for him. Only $1.6M. But that’s for a later time.
With our surplus of OF we could easily afford to move Schu to second. If he can prove that he can field the grounders then there is absolutely no reason not to give him the job.
Which leads me to Adam Kennedy. He was nowhere near the top of the list in these hitting categories. Schumaker was nearly 40 better in both runs created and linear weights. That is a fairly significant offensive upgrade, which I think would outweigh the defense downgrade. To be fair to Kennedy, he did play in 38 games. But regardless, I still think Schumaker would have a great offensive advantage over Kennedy.
Schumaker was even a little better than Hudson on offense but Hudson played only 107 games while Schu played 153 and these stats are affected by amount of playing time, so Orlando would be a better option if we can get him.
Schumaker was our second best hitting OF last year. DeWitt just came out and said we’re not being affected by the economy much due to the all-star game, so what I take out of that is that we have money to spend. Manny anyone? He was the best hitting OF last year creating more runs than anyone with 140 and finishing in second in the linear weights by 1/100 of a point. Ludwick was 5th. Ankiel wasn’t too shabby. That would be a great lineup.
Although if we did somehow sign Manny, Ludwick or Ankiel would be gone for pitching. Now for pitchers I used a rating based off league average. If we are going the trade route, there are a few people I would like to see in a Cardinals uniform. Not much from the Marlins, Nolasco or Volstad. If Detroit is trading, I want Gallaraga. There are a few others I would like to see. The Free agent wise, Perez was only slightly above average, so I’m not too upset there except he good have had some more potential. We’ll see I guess. Looper was above average and started 33 times. He is what we need. I am all for re-signing him. Cheaper and more durable than Sheets, he fits in with what we need and he will not cost us our 1st round pick.
By the way, Springer was very slightly better than Fuentes last year. He would have also been a few million cheaper. But we couldn’t sign either. Also, our only starting pitcher that was below league average for us last year was Pineiro and he wasn’t that close to league average.
To finish this off, I’ll just say that we should sign Manny trade Ludwick/Ankiel and/or a prospect or two to the Mariners for Rowland-Smith/Morrow and/or Lopez. Or to Marlins for Volstad and/or Uggla (probably just one of them) Then we still have a logjam in the OF if we get Lopez or Uggla so we can trade Dunc to the AL for some relief help.
2B Lopez
CF Ankiel (Rasmus will go to Memphis for a while)
1B Pujols
LF Ramirez
3B Glaus
SS Greene
C Molina
P
RF Schumaker
Or flip Lopez and Schu
I can go on longer but won’t waste your time with more ideas that will never happen that this turned into at the end.
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There is little chance that Schu is better than Kennedy next year
Kennedy is one of the best defenders in the game with a career 9.9 UZR/150. That means he saves about 10 runs a season more than the average second baseman. Skip, who hasn’t played second in who knows how long, would likely closer 5 runs below average. So that means Skip would have to be 15 runs better on offense to make up the difference. Skip in a career year last year was only about 10 runs better than Kennedy on offense. Most projections call for him to be between 0 runs and -5 runs. Kennedy ranges from -7 runs to -10 runs. So in the best case scenario (assuming that Schumaker is even adequate a second AND he beats his projections AND Kennedy has another dreadful season with the bat) Kennedy would still be about 5 runs better than Schu.
vivaelbeñsheets
How did I know that you would be the first to comment on this post?
JOSE LOPEZ
JOSE LOPEZ
JOSE LOPEZ
JOSE LOPEZ
JOSE LOPEZ
JOSE LOPEZ!!!!!!!!!!!
If we can’t get Lopez, just let Kennedy and Schumaker battle outright for 2B in Spring Training, If Kennedy knows he has real competition for his starting gig, then he’ll up his game. Whoever loses the battle becomes the UT. Having Schumaker see time on the infield would clear up room for Dunc, Rasmus, and Barton.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 4, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, yeah, and If we don't do anything else this offseason.
At least force Kennedy and Piniero to compete for their starting slots. Have KMac or a FA signee compete with Piniero for 5th starter.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 4, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Aren't
most second basemen right handed?….Pretty difficult for a lefty to turn double plays right?…how common is it for a lefty to play second?
Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic.-Bull Durham
answer
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Has_there_ever_been_a_left_handed_second_baseman
skip throws righthanded by the way
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 5, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Ha! Career Year
There is one major reason that that was Schumaker’s career year:
He has only played one full season. You can’t be talking about career years when he hasn’t had a career yet.
And I agree, thats why I said that if he can prove he can be a decent infielder, then we let him have the job.
He's 28
And his skill set doesn’t leave much room for improvement. But you are right, If Schumaker could be anywhere from average to slightly above average on defense than it would make sense to let him have the job. However, he hasn’t played second in forever and you don’t just become an above average fielder at a new position in 1 month.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
No matter whether it is
Kennedy or Schumaker, we still need a platoon partner who hits RH. Barden, Ryan, or TGreene?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I would like to see Greene.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
correction
he saved about 10 runs more than the average 2B LAST season. It may or may not have been an aberration but he’s never been that good before.
Wrong
His career UZR/150 is around 10. Last year it was 22, which is ridiculous and unrepeatable. He has had 2 years with UZRs higher than in 08 so I’m fairly confident that he can repeat.
vivaelbeñsheets
Kennedy only actually saved 10.4 runs last year
and if he regresses with the glove I doubt he will play enough innings to save any more than that in 2009.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
he save 22 runs per 150 games
Which means that if he had had a full season he would have saved 22 runs. If Kennedy gets 500 PA next year, there is no reason to think that he wouldn’t be close to 10 runs above average.
vivaelbeñsheets
well, not exactly.
It means he was on a pace to save 22 runs. His true defensive talent is probably not that high, so he probably would have saved fewer than 22 runs if he had played 150 games. of course he might have saved more, because even 150 games is a small sample size for defensive metrics.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
i don't know what games i was watching last season
but i swear AK was never that good with the glove. sure he had some pretty awesome plays, but those were few & far between.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
playing between pujos and izturis probably helped
Is it weird that I would rather the payroll be more like the Marlins than the Yankees?
by ForesterShane on Feb 6, 2009 4:57 AM EST up reply actions
forgive my spelling at 4 in the morning
Is it weird that I would rather the payroll be more like the Marlins than the Yankees?
by ForesterShane on Feb 6, 2009 4:57 AM EST up reply actions
make all the plays you are supposed to make
and then make one more play every other week that an average 2B would not make, and you’re a full win better than average over a season. Which is worth about 50 points of OPS.
And making those plays doesn’t just mean making a spectacular diving play; though kennedy had a couple of those, it can also mean better positioning leading to a play that looked easy but that someone else might not have gotten.
Of course, as someone else said, having pujols to his left probably did help, since he could line up closer to the base.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
He's right chuck
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Why do people think he can play 2b?
Considering he hits like a middle infielder, don’t you think he would have been kept there, if he could actually play it defensively?
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
In 2005/2006 when Schumaker was coming up, the Cards' outfield was thin.
So the need might have been greater in the OF at that time.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 5, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe...
maaaybe he could hack it if he played a little deeper than Jabba the Belliard played, but there’d be a lot of infield hits to the right side.
Skip’s a very good defensive outfielder, can play all three positions well. If Tony experimented with him at 2B in spring it wouldn’t last a coupla days.
OF to 2B
That seems like an unusual position change. Alfonso Soriano went from 2B to LF. Tim Raines was a minor league 2B before going to LF. Pete Rose started his career at 2B before going to the outfield. Juan Samuel went to the outfield after playing second. I can’t think of anybody, who wasn’t a utility guy, going the other way from an outfielder to a second baseman.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
Craig Biggio
He went from second to the outfield and back to second. That’s still unusual to go from the outfield to second base. I forgot Kelly Johnson played LF back in 2005 for the Braves.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
this is why there's a hot stove thread.
there’s no meaningful analysis here.
of course, IF skip schumaker can play 2b, he’d be a great hitting 2b. so would albert pujols, troy glaus, ryan ludwick, etc. IF they can play 2b. and the only thing you say in your analysis is that you “think [schumaker’s offensive contribution] would outweigh the defense downgrade.” what’s the evidence for that?
there was a post with more than 100 posts on it that got bumped off the front page when you posted this.
this is just another “let’s have skip schumaker play 2b and then make a bunch of trades, what do you think?” post. that’s why we have a hot stove thread. chuckb put up guidelines in the fanshots section — another place to put this.
Of course that post was a catch all thread for signing Manny Ramirez
with no meaningful analysis either, but your point still stands.
vivaelbeñsheets
i kind of disagree here
joeybombs, who has a great screen name (how did that s/n last until late jan 09?) at least did SOME analysis, and nothing he worked out was wrong as far as I can tell without breaking out a spreadsheet. It might not have been ground-breaking, and there was some bad logic, and he didn’t show his work, but it wasn’t a SIGN O-HUD/DFA KENNDY thread. We may have been talking about Schumaker at 2b on here for a long, long time, but it’s just now hitting the mainstream; jb has only been here a week or so, and his first diary was better than probably half of what’s been posted in diaries this off-season, so let’s not be too harsh.
The last couple of “by the way” paragraphs were superfluous, though. boooo. ;)
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
this comment is pretty funny if
you imagine its being said by the comic book guy from the simpsons
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 5, 2009 3:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I disagree Tom
There’s plenty of analysis here, it might be analysis that you don’t agree with, but it is analysis none the less. He’s explaining the positives of Schu being at Second with research. Seems fine to me.
There's plenty of analysis here to warrant a FanPost
This topic has been discussed ad nauseum, but this particular post would get lost in the Hot Stove thread as a comment. You knew what the thread was about when you clicked on it, if you don’t want to read it or discuss it, that’s fine, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t others here that feel the same way that you do.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Brian Barden...
that’s it…just BRIAN FREAKING BARDEN!!!
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
The answer is clear
The Cardinals could have the best hitting 2b of all time – just by moving #5 to 2b! Then, you can move Chris Duncan to his natural position to free up outfield space for Manny Ramirez. See? Talk about your awsome line-ups! That isn’t “murderer’s row,” it’s like “serial killer’s euthanasia row”! How hard is that? Oh, and Colby Rasmus needs to learn to be a catcher. * * * * * Seriously: 2b offensive upgrade would be lovely, but it’s all about three things: Pitching, pitching, and pitching.
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
He did great in the milwakee game
Countdown to world series #11
264 days
by bearcatcardfan on Feb 5, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
I've actually thought about that before
and think it’s a pretty good idea
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
Mariners aren't going to trade us Rowland-Smith or Morrow
They’re rebuilding, and these are their talented young arms. Not a chance.
Anybody would be better than Kennedy
Just to let you know, Felipe Lopez signed with Arizona.
Schu played SS in college, and I think the Cards could try to work with him and make him a 2B. I hope this could happen, since the Birds don’t have much depth in the middle infield. Anyone, even Skip, would be better than Kennedy!
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
I think the Lopez
he is referring to is Jose Lopez of Seattle
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...Oh yeah, and by the way....BEN SHEETS!!!!!
by RunninRedbird on Feb 5, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
AK
Kennedy was one of the best defensive 2nd basemen in all of baseball last year. Did he set the world on fire with the bat? No. But would anyone be better than Kennedy? Well, that’s not true either.
Take a look at this. Even if Kennedy’s glove regresses, he’s still not a useless player at 2nd (assuming it doesn’t regress a whole ton). I mean, he’s no star, but considering he’s an expiring contract he’s far from the biggest problem on the team.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at that list
Ray Durham make a lot of sense as a platoon partner for Kennedy. With the exception of 2007, he has been well above average offensively and he has been right about average defensively over the last 5 years (he was actually slightly above average last year). He is 37 which is old enough to mandate a 1 year deal and we could probably get him for 1 year 2 million if we guarantee at least 400 at bats.
vivaelbeñsheets
Maybe even less than that with no AB guarantee, if interest in him is low enough
Spring training is creeping ever closer…
Cliff Floyd
just signed for $750,000, so could we get Ray Durham for $1M?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
To all those who keep ripping the schu to 2B idea...
The fact is he WILL BE auditioning for 2B. This is no long a crazy idea brought about by the fans but it WILL BE actually attempted. So I think we can put to rest all the “anybody can play 2B” crap when schu’s name is mentioned as a possibily, because it is reality. Will it work? Maybe…but probably not. I think the idea was to at least try it, which there is absolutely no harm in doing….its not like its going to make him a worse OF …they just need to see if he can be a decent infielder. Maybe it’ll take him 2 years to make the transition, but if he hits the way he did last year for a few more years its going to make him a lot of money and very valuable to the team. That is all.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 5, 2009 3:30 PM EST reply actions
While I think it is a long shot
it is, like you said, a no risk option. If Skip could replicate his 2008 offensive numbers and then put up a -6.5 UZR he would be……Kelly Johnson.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Agreed
There is nothing exciting about Johnson. That’s why I don’t get the excitement over putting Skip at 2B.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
The one reason that I could see for putting him at second
would be that Skip could end up being our future second baseman. Next year there is little chance that Skip will be as good as Kennedy. Skip hasn’t played second in forever and his defense would likely be pretty bad next year. However if Skip could improve on defense to the point where he would be about average (there is really nothing showing that he could do that except for the fact that he SEEMS like he would be a good defender), than his bat would play real well at second. He could end up being a 3 WAR player in 2010.
vivaelbeñsheets
We'll see
but I think he would have to either become an above average defender or learn to hit LHPs, or both, to get to 3 WAR. I just don’t want to see another TLR favorite, gritty 2B who is defensively challenged. If he can pull it off that would great, but I wouldn’t want to put money on it.
Of course, if they can’t trade him for anything then I guess it makes sense to take a look.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
well, he'd be a gritty 2B
with a .750ish OPS, instead of a .650ish OPS ;)
But you’re right, for Schu to have been a 3-WAR player at 2B last year, with the same playing time as he got, he’d basically have to have been a league average defender:
His raw offensive performance was 7.8 runs. Replacement is about 19.8 runs. Another 2.3 runs for position, = 29.9 runs, or 3 WAR. Any negative defense at all takes away from that value.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
That what I am saying
Skip wouldn’t be an average defender next year, but in 2010 there is no evidence that Skip can’t be an average defender.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Plus
I think it was a mistake for him to get so many PAs vs. LHPs last year. If he can’t hit/doesn’t play against LHPs, his replacement value and his positional adjustment drop as well, meaning he would then have to play above average defense to be a 3 WAR player.
I guess you could argue that if he was more strictly platooned his offensive value could go up since I doubt that .163/.238/.185/.453 line vs. lefties helped him much.
Do you think he would be willing to go to the minors to get some innings at 2B? If the organization is concerned about Motte and Perez needing to refine their pitches in AAA, then I don’t see how they could argue that Skip could learn an entirely new (and important) position at the MLB level.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I don't think that he has options left
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, he would have to be outrighted
And then go through waivers, and there’s no way he makes it through waivers.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
KJ's not THAT good, but he's still a 2-3 win player
Skip would be making next to nothing, playing better than Adam Kennedy, and (most importantly) not taking ABs from superior players in the OF.
If I were Skip, I’d have spend all offseason working on ground balls. Right now he’s stuck in the middle of an intense outfield competition with even more outfielders rising through the system. If he moved to 2B and put up Kelly Johnson numbers, he’d immediately establish himself as our 2B and leadoff hitter for the next several years. He should be absolutely salivating at that opportunity, if you ask me.
And right on cue
“I see this as going into the future,” Schumaker said. “We have a guy [Kennedy] that’s done it before. Everybody knows he’s done it before. I know he’s looking to rebound. I hit with him a few days a week. I know he’s working hard and getting ready for spring also. But I do know his contract’s up [after 2009] and I do know there could be an opportunity there for me.”
Exactly. That’s what I’m talking about, Skippy.
"I think the idea was to at least try it, which there is absolutely no harm in doing…"
bingo. If only they had tried it this time last year.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Because he even thinks it's a dumb idea....
“"I played infield before. There’s a reason why I’m in the outfield, I think … obviously if [Cardinals manager] Tony [La Russa] wants to throw me in that fire, I’ll try it. But I don’t know how realistic that is.”
That’s Skip commenting on it at the Winter warmup.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
there was some speculation
that he hadn’t been told yet… but Larussa tends to put up a lot of smokescreens
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
completely agree
I voted that Kennedy will get the job in the poll due mainly to one thing you said and that was posted on stlcardinals.com. Kennedy’s contract runs through ’09 and then he is out. We are going to need another second basemen for 2010. And, the FO believes, that if we can have an in-house replacement for Kennedy in Schu, we are going to save a couple of bucks by not diving into the FA market.
Maybe Kennedy will play the majority of 09 in second base. But, If schu does a good job there, in ’10 we might see him as our Opening Day second basemen…
Yadi swings and hits a high fly ball... Endy Chavez goes back, to the track, to the wall... ITS A GUNNER!! Yadi gives St. Louis the lead in the top of the ninth!
Interesting
Next year it is a pretty good bet that Kennedy will outperform Skip, but Skip is under team control for another couple of seasons. Schu will probably improved enough on defense with playing time to be considered the long term option at second. His bat certainly plays well there.
vivaelbeñsheets
I think it's pretty cool that he'll be auditioning for 2B
I think this year should be even more interesting than last season… hopefully it will be more effective too. I still think it’s pretty cool that they might use a starter in a high leverage situation if they are the best person for the job (unless it totally disrupts their routine, then it is a very bad idea)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
disregard horible reply attempt above
shield eyes now or will be blinded
Countdown to world series #11
264 days
by bearcatcardfan on Feb 5, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
reply fail
/meme
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Feb 7, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
uh guy, looks like it's going to happen
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
if schu can become more versatile
it vastly improves his worth to the team, since we don’t really need him in the OF
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
Jose Lopez
Am I the only person who knows jose lopez is already signed by the D-backs. And I don’t know why this video game type move would help the team. It would completely ruin the commrodery on the club to make all those moves. Tony is famous for making guys play different positions. Skip won’t play second that much. But it would be good to have some versatility considering he’s a great leadoff hitter.
Jose and Felipe aren't the same person
What is the negative impact in terms of runs of decreased camaraderie? Is it more or less than the positive impact of playing better players at assorted positions?
I would hardly call Skip a great leadoff hitter. A .360 OBP is respectable and good enough, but it’s not GREAT, and getting on base is the single most important job of a leadoff hitter. Furthermore, Skip literally cannot hit lefties. At all. He basically turns into a hitting-pitcher against lefties. His split against lefties is this gastly assortment of digits:
.195/.266/.208/.474
That’s right. His OPS is only slightly better than Albert Pujols’s OBP. A more accurate stance is this: Skip is a serviceable leadoff hitter against RHP’s.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, you noted the Felipe/Jose thing
-1 on me. Mea culpa.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Great? Good maybe
Ricky Henderson was a great lead off hitter. Skip managed a .370 OBP in the leadoff spot last year, which is good, I’d say. But his lack of power and speed made it hard for him to get into scoring position.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
Yeah, I'd like Lopez more than anybody, as I'm sure all of you already know.
But why not make an aggressive push to acquire Uggla from the Marlins. That team is very open to making all sorts of moves, and Uggla is a FA in 2 years. The Marlins acquired E. Bonifacio but have no place to play him as long as Uggla is at 2nd. Uggla could move to 1st or 3rd but the Marlins are high on Gaby Sanchez at 1st and they have Jorge Cantu at third. The Marlins are, however, one of the few teams who have some room to upgrade in the outfield. Since they won’t be throwing money at any FA options, they’d ought to deal for a STL outfielder.
Offer them Ludwick + Kennedy + (insert name here) for Uggla.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 5, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
will we see a cards/a's trade?
cardinals have 3b depth…freese/craig
A’s have many 2b types on their 40 man and in the minors
corey wimberly, adrian cardenas, josh horton, jemile weeks
40 Yung Chi Chen R/R 5-11 170 07/13/83
4 Eric Patterson L/R 5-11 170 04/08/83
56 Cliff Pennington S/R 5-11 185 06/15/84
2 Gregorio Petit R/R 5-10 190 12/10/84
As attractive as either Bonifacio or Uggla would look in red next year....
I’m a little leery of doing a deal with the Marlins. They seem to get the better end of the deal every time, what with how they evaluate talent. I wonder if the BoSox would take Hanley back for Beckett and Lowell? I bet the Tigers want to send Dontrelle and Miguel back for their entire AAA team.
With that being said, send Ludwick + (insert name here) for Uggla. It almost makes too much sense for the fish to move him, that it is surprising he hasn’t been dealt. The only reason I can see is that the Fish don’t want to lose too much offense after trading Jacobs. But a team like the Giants or Cards could really use him. Unfortunately, the Giants or Mets(if they wanted to trade within their division), would probably beat any offer we would make. And we couldn’t send back Adam Kennedy unless we ate his payroll.
I don’t know how the Tigers feel about their prospects next year, but I wonder what they would want for Placido?
by Czechguardsman on Feb 6, 2009 7:49 AM EST up reply actions
um, No.
I wonder if the BoSox would take Hanley back for Beckett and Lowell?
Beckett and Lowell helped them win a World Series. They’ve won 2 World Series in NINETY YEARS! So no, I don’t think they regret that trade at all actually.
I bet the Tigers want to send Dontrelle and Miguel back for their entire AAA team.
Really? Only one of the players that they traded has made an impact in the big leagues yet, and Maybin doesn’t seem to be the prospect that he once was. Dontrelle was a throw in player in that deal, he didn’t cost them anything — if anything he probably lowered the cost of Cabrera because the Tigers are eating his ridiculous contract. Meanwhile, Cabrera put up a .292/.349/.537 last season in his first year in the AL, is still only 25, and put up up three straight 150+ OPS+ seasons before last year. So no, I don’t think they have buyers remorse either. Had Sheffield been healthy all year and their pitching staff not gone in the shitter, they probably have a shot at winning that division.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't get how
Uggla’s value would be Ludwick +. Ludwick is better, and more valuable, than Uggla all by himself.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Barely
Uggla has been at least a 4 WAR play in 2 of the last 3 years. Ludwick was a 5 WAR player last year, but he looks to regress a little. So you can call them both 4 WAR players next year. The difference is that it is easier (especially for our club) to find a 4 WAR OF than a 4 WAR second baseman.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
WAR
Takes into account position, so they are roughly the same player. Obviously it is tougher for the Cardinals to find a 4 WAR second baseman and have a ton of replacements for Ludwick in the outfield, but that doesn’t mean that we should overpay for Uggla either. If they have roughly equal value, we should trade for Uggla straight up for Ludwick and not pay a cent more.
That said, you have to factor in the Marlins’ refusal to pay arbitration salaries as equally as well known as the Cardinals large stable of outfield talent, so those two factors should cancel each other out.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That is what I was saying
There are equal players, but it would be a good deal for us because Uggla – Kennedy + Mather/Ankiel> Kennedy + Ludwick
vivaelbeñsheets
You're making some big assumptions there
- Ankiel has to be healthy for a full season.
- Mather has to be better than he was last year in his limited AB’s.
- That Uggla doesn’t turn in a defensive season similar to 2007.
I’ve seen nothing that would tell me that all three of those things are likely to happen.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Your not showing the whole story
Ludwick has a greater chance of regressing on offense than Uggla has on turning into an albatross on defense. Uggla has had one great defensive year, one terrible one and one average one. It is probably safe to assume that he is an average defender. Furthermore he was playing in between one of the worst defensive shortstops and one of the worst defensive first baseman last year. Playing between Pujols and Greene would definitely help his defense.
Also, in my scenario Ankiel and Mather would be platooning in right. You have to think that Mather would outperform his shaky start last year playing mostly against lefties, and Ankiel against mostly righties essentially is Ludwick.
vivaelbeñsheets
I don't agree with your assumptions
First, there is absolutely no basis for the statement, “Ludwick has a greater chance of regressing on offense than Uggla has on turning into an albatross on defense.” Ludwick really doesn’t have a mean to regress to and the league didn’t show any signs of adjusting to him as the season wore on. He was good in the first half and even better in the second half. Uggla is only one season removed from a horrendous defensive season and certainly has the possibility of regressing. Uggla is also coming off a career year offensively so there is at least an equal chance that he will regress somewhat at the plate.
Second, it is something of a stretch to assume that a platoon of Mather and Ankiel could replace Ludwick’s production. I like Mather, but last year he negative split to the tune of a .682 OPS vs. LHPs. I know he has hit lefties well in the minors, but he would have to make a pretty good adjustment just to get to .800 OPS. If Ank is 100% healthy for the whole season, which is not at all a sure thing, he still hasn’t mashed RHPs at anywhere near Ludwick’s .985 OPS level.
This trade doesn’t really make us younger or more cost effective and it might not make us any better.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
A couple of points
1) Uggla and Ludwick were within .4 WAR of each other last year and most projection systems peg Uggla to be slightly better overall than Ludwick in 09.
2) Mather did struggle in his 72 PA against lefties last year, however his career minor league line against them is .293/.372/.569/.941. His BABIP was only .303 so you can’t just say it was lucky. He definitely has a shot to outperform an .800 OPS against lefties.
3) This trade definitely make us younger as we would essentially replacing Ludwick (30) with Rasmus (22), and Kennedy (32) with Uggla (28).
4) The trade might not make us significantly better, but the point is that we would be dealing from a strength to improve a weakness. We would be opening up a spot for Rasmus and giving more playing time to Ankiel and Mather.
vivaelbeñsheets
OK
but 1) doesn’t really matter because Ludwick doesn’t fit the projection systems.
2) Yes, Mather has a shot to outperform an .800 OPS vs. LHPs, but a roughly equal shot not to.
3) There are many ways to get Rasmus in the starting lineup, like trading from a strength for our real need – pitching. You can’t really say trading one player for another who is 20 months younger makes a significant difference as to the age of the team. Given the early age that 2Bs start to decline, it is debatable which player would have more good years left. Kennedy will be gone at the end of the season anyway plus the Marlins won’t take him unless we eat pretty much all of his salary.
4) As stated above, the real need of the team is pitching and that is what any surplus talent should be traded for.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Of course pitching is the need
But this post has been about second baseman. I was just arguing the merits of a Uggla for Ludwick trade.
vivaelbeñsheets
I would prefer to trade Ludwick for Justin Duchscherer
by Czechguardsman on Feb 7, 2009 2:11 AM EST up reply actions
Put Duchscherer in the rotation, and, with a healthy Carp...
The Cards rotation will match up against anyone.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 7, 2009 5:03 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
But that didn’t really have anything to do with what we were talking about. Whatever, I don’t care… Why am I still up.
vivaelbeñsheets
I'm just throwing stuff around.
Uggla is just the flavor of the week.
Next week we move on to more idle speculation!!! Who will be the next target? Justin Duchscherer, Scott Downs, Aaron Cook….. Who will it be?
by Czechguardsman on Feb 7, 2009 5:43 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think so.
You don’t make your way through the entire best minor league system in your first full season by being overrated, you need results.
The key word is "relatively"
He’s overhyped.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 7, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
does that mean he gets too
much press for your taste?
Because there is no way to tell if he is overrated until he goes out and bombs.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
Yes, he gets way too much press.
We’ll just have to see how his 09 season goes.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 7, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
He supposed to start in AAA.
But he should be back up pretty fast.
I just read that
he was might start off at AAA.
http://www.fantasysp.com/player/mlb/David_Price/223587
I know he probably will
but that article was written yesterday and says that so I don’t know now.
Actually
I read something on BTBS that Jeff Neiman would be starting because he is out of options.
vivaelbeñsheets
Neiman will kick @$$
I like the tall right-handers.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 8, 2009 4:39 AM EST up reply actions
maybe we could get Neiman
or Sonnanstine.
I don’t know that the Rays would want from us since we should’ve traded a long time ago when they needed outfielders.
Even though the Rays have ostensibly filled their OF holes
It would still make sense to trade for Niemann. Niemann is going to be pushed by guys like Wade Davis and Jake McGee by the end of this year anyway, and Nieman is out of options.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 8, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Heck yes.
I don’t see a way that Niemann will stick in TBs rotation.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 8, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Of course,
this post is about Skip Schumaker playing 2B. So, it seems we are both off topic.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
You may be right
but I do not subscribe to the ever popular “Ludwick will regress” theme. There has been some speculation that he will bat in front of Albert in 2009. If that is the case he will destroy last year’s numbers.
Last year there were 14 OFs with 4+ WAR and 6 2B in the same category. Given that you need three OFs per team it looks like 4+ WAR OFs are at least as scarce. If the WAR adjustments are done properly then they should balance pretty well across positions. No other Cardinal OF had a WAR above 2.6 last year.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Ludwick could've finished...
with 40 hr and 120 rbi last year if he had gotten the proper playing time early on…he only started 132 games!!!
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 7, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
gotta think of how good a hitter Uggla is
for a 2B
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
but Ludwick is an even better hitter
for an OF. Even though Ludwick had a lower UZR that Uggla (???) and has a positional adjustment that essentially costs him a win in comparison to a 2B, he was still a better player. Offensively, Ludwick was 17 runs better. That is about the same gap as between Uggla and Placido Polanco.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I don't necessarily believe that
We have to give up Ludwick for him. I’m sure we can give them some prospects instead.
appearantly skip is going to be an excellent defender
“If I go there, I don’t want to be bad there,” Schumaker said. “I want to take it and do something with it. I don’t want to be just adequate.”
I love skip for his grit, but for some reason it seems he has more potential than the bo hart/miles types. I think he knows where he stands, after spending years fighting through the minors and off and on the roster, he set his mind to getting better and worked hard all offseason and earned a lot of playing time last year. I think he has enough combination of real talent and athleticism mixed with drive to get better, that he may be able to pull it off. Look what ankiel did.
Is it weird that I would rather the payroll be more like the Marlins than the Yankees?
Skip is a very good hitter
at least for a 2nd baseman he would be. If he is platoon or can avoid turning into a pitcher against lefties, than he would be much more than Miles/Hart.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 6, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think it would be a minor miracle
if he can actually be a good enough defensive 2B to surpass Miles ‘08 production. I’m rooting for it, but if he actually pulls it off then a lot of people in the Cardinals’ player development hierarchy should be embarrassed that they didn’t do it five years ago.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I certainly hope he pulls it off
it would make things a lot simpler for the team
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
i never doubted you
but it would have helped your cause if you could have taken some pics or video of it happening.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Durham might retire
because no one has made any offers to him
So what would our Opening Day lineup look like?
If Skippy did perform above expectations this spring and got into the 2B shuffle and won the starting job for Opening day, what would our lineup look like?
First, a couple of insertions need to be made. With Glaus out, I’m inserting whom I think should get the job, David Freese. Freese is projected to be a plus defender with a decent bat; so maybe a Kevin Kouzmanoff is a decent comparable. Since this is really a fantasy type post for me, I’m putting Rasmus in as CF Starter for Skippy.
So the question(s) to me with this alignment is; where does Skippy bat, and if it’s leadoff, then who hits 9th?
Skippy — 2B
Rasmus - CF 1B
Pujols -
Ludwick — LF
Ankiel — RF
Molina — C
Freese — 3B
Carp/Wainwright — P
Greene — SS
I personally, don’t think Greene is a good fit at 9. he’s got pop but not very strong on-base skills, which is what a “second leadoff guy” is tasked to do. Frankly, I think this puts Skip in the 9 hole with Rasmus leading off. The two lefties thing is okay, but who hits second then; Ludwick? Ankiel? Glaus when he returns? Freese until he does?
While I’m very excited about the prospects of Skip at second, I’m more than curious what our best lineup would become.
**side dialogue—I put “Carp/Wainwright” in as Opening Day starter. My question is this; IF Carp IS Healthy for Opening Day, is he the starter? He’s got experience as it, has the salary to dictate it, and frankly is probably our best pitcher (NOW) if healthy. That being said, would this team and we fans be able to handle another Opening Day injury to him? Is that enough of a reason to push him to the second game and let Waino get us the first victory?
Less than a week boys—man, I’m pumped.
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
Colby could lead off
then you stick Skip in the 9 spot, then move Freese to the 2 spot:
Rasmus CF
Freese 3B
Albert 1B
Luddy LF
Ank RF
Greene SS
Yadi C
Pitcher
Schu 2B
This keeps K-Bot more in the meat of the lineup where his pop can be more effective. This would have to be dependent on how well Freese hits in front of Albert. He’ll get pitches to hit, but he’ll just have to make sure and take advantage of them. Knowing Tony though, it’s not like he’ll stick to the same lineup all season.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Feb 9, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
The problem is
That lineup is a very high risk one. We have absolutely no idea how well Rasmus will do leading off, when he goes to a new level, Rasmus seems to struggle like he has before. Maybe he will do well, we have no idea. I would prefer to put schu leading off as well
Schu
Greene
Albert
Ludwick
Ankiel
Freese
Molina
Pitcher
Rasmus
This lineup may not work well, but it is possible.
We could toss lineups back and forth all day
Schu probably will leadoff to begin the season, but if Raz can adjust well I’d rather have him in that spot. He projects to have better on-base ability than Skip and he will almost certainly hit lefties better. The one thing that makes me cringe in your lineup is Greene batting second. He strikesout way too much and has too poor of an OB ability to be hitting in front of Albert.
Revised:
Schu
Freese
Albert
Luddy
Ank
Greene
Molina
P
Razzle
Freese is a question mark to what his offensive production will be, but I have to think his OBP will be higher than Khalil’s .304 career clip. If only Troy wasn’t hurt….
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Feb 9, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
#9 is the a bad fit for greene (high SLG, low OBP)
Cyril Morong’s work seems to show that OBP is least valuable in the 4 spot and slugging least valuable in the 1 and 3 spots. 2, 4, and 5-7 place a premium on slugging and 12359 place a premium on OBP. makes sense, as slugging is wasted when batting after the catcher/pitcher/other bad hitters and obp is more important in spots where you have a chance to get on base for the better hitters.
So Greene should bat 6 or 7.
"young pitchers will break your heart". -sam rich
I don't know I it struck through Sir Albert and CF
lo siento, Albert. lo siento
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
Well I feel like this post was a pretty good idea now
AK is now a free agent
I always knew AK wouldn’t be our 2B
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