2009 Draft Preview #2
by the red baron on Feb 4, 2009 1:49 PM EST
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PrintWell, howdy, y'all!
Yeah, I know; not really me, is it? Oh well.
Anyway, I thought this morning that we might take another look at some of the players who may or may not figure in to the Cardinals' draft pick this coming June. Sadly, I have not gotten started on this until slightly before noon this fine morning, so in order to try and get it posted by a decent hour, I'm going to have to keep this as short as possible.
Let's get right to it, shall we?
A fewdaysback, the always excellent fewgoodcards, over at Future Redbirds, did his initial top 30 draft rankings. Not trying to predict any picks or anything of that sort, mind you, just ranking the 30 best players in the draft. What is most striking about this year's draft is the overwhelming number of pitchers who look to be first round talents. Not all of them will end up as such, of course, due to signability issues, health issues, poor performance, and plain old TINSTAAPP thinking, but the point remains: 2009 looks to be as arm-heavy a draft as we've seen in quite a while.
Today I wanted to look at one of my favourite segments of the draft, and one that the Cardinals almost never mine with their early draft picks: prep school pitchers. I think the Cards simply see this particular draft segment as being too risky, and there is plenty of support for such a belief. Thus, there is probably almost zero chance that the Cardinals draft one of these individuals, but I'll cover them anyway.
There are three high school arms in this year's class that really stand out above the others; two lefties and one righthander.
Matthew Purke, LHP- Klein High School, Spring, Texas
6'3", 170 lbs.
So, what's so great about this guy?
Matthew Purke is, quite simply, the most talented high schooler in this year's draft. He brings the repertoire of a power pitcher to the mound to go along with a solid feel for pitching, and should move fairly quickly in whatever organisation is lucky enough to land this young man on draft day.
Working from a low three-quarters arm slot, Purke throws a fastball that cruises easily in the low 90s, touching all the way up to 95 at times, and complements it with a biting slider that projects as a plus pitch already. He also features a solid changeup that nonetheless still needs refining.
The comparison you get most often when talking about Purke is that of Scott Kazmir; fewgoodcards himself refers to Purke as "...Kazmir with a bigger frame." That's a pretty apt comparison, as both are slender, hard-throwing lefties, though Purke, while impressive, isn't yet the kind of showcase circuit legend that Kazmir was. The other comp I really like for Purke, and I haven't really seen it elsewhere yet, is that of a slightly smaller version of 2007 draft sensation Madison Bumgarner. The two have similar mechanics, with both of them slinging the ball from a low arm angle, and Bumgarner, since turning pro, has begun throwing a slider that is already getting some hype as one of the best in the minors.
(If I did this correctly, Purke should be the first video and Bumgarner the second.)
Regardless of who you like to compare him to, the fact is that Matt Purke is a special, special arm. I don't see any way the Cardinals would ever have a shot at drafting him , but a man can dream, can't he?
Tyler Matzek, LHP-Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, California
6'3", 185 lbs.
So, what's so great about this guy?
Remember Brian Matusz from last year's draft? Lefty, four pitch arsenal, good control? Orioles took him fourth overall? Yeah, that's the guy.
Well, take that guy, subtract three years, and you've got Tyler Matzek. Whereas Matthew Purke is a bundle of raw, unfinished talent, Matzek is a much more polished pitcher, with four pitches that all profile in the solid-average range, and all four of which can be thrown for strikes. He's a little more filled out than Purke as well, and isn't as slingy with his arm action.
Much like Matusz from last year, Matzek's chief strength is in the depth of his repertoire, and his ability to control it. He throws a fastball in the 88-91 range, and has touched 94 at times, though the pitch tends to flatten out at higher velocities. A solid slider complements what may be his best pitch, a tight little curveball that shows potential of being a plus pitch down the road. His changeup has a little fade, and he does a nice job of selling it with his arm speed. Matzek can locate all four of his pitches effectively, making them all play up. He and Purke will likely duke it out all spring on people's draft boards, and which one goes first will largely depend on who has the better showing.
Jacob Turner, RHP- Westminster Christian Academy, St. Charles, Missouri
6'4", 205 lbs.
So, what's so great about this guy?
Jacob Turner is pretty much your prototypical power pitcher. He's big, right around the same size as a Mark Prior (frame-wise, at least; he still needs to fill out), he throws hard, and he's got a hammer breaking pitch to put hitters away.
This marks the second year in a row that the St. Louis area has one of the top prep pitching prospects in the nation, with Turner following in the footsteps of last year's Great White Hope, Tim Melville. I wanted the Cardinals to take Melville when he dropped out of the first round, but he eventually went to the Royals in the fourth, I believe.
Like Melville, Turner has a big, strong frame with plenty of room left to fill out, though Turner isn't quite as wiry as Melville was. Turner's calling card is his excellent arm speed, which allows him to deliver fastballs consistently in the low 90s, up to about 94 or so. He throws a curve in the mid-70s that already qualifies as an out pitch, though he isn't as consistent with his command of the pitch as he is his fastball. Turner's changeup is definitely his third pitch at the moment, though he hasn't needed it much, and it does show promise. He commands his entire repertoire very well, especially his fastball, and has above-average movement on all of his offerings.
My one and only issue with Turner has to with his delivery. I actually don't see anything in his mechanics that throws up a big red flag to me, though I can't be sure watching them at full speed, but I tend not to like pitchers who work with as slow a tempo as he does. He hangs back over the rubber, and is very deliberate. It's worked very well so far for him, and like I said, I don't see anything I really dislike at first blush, but if I were coaching the kid, I think I would try to get him to speed up his tempo a little bit, see if I couldn't get him carrying his momentum through the balance point a little more. Just my personal preference, though. What he's doing now is obviously working just fine.
Well, that's it for this edition of the draft preview. As I said earlier, I don't think there's much of a chance that any of these three players hear their name called on draft day by the Cardinals, but if history has taught us anything, it's that you never really know how the draft is going to work out.
Of the three, I think Turner probably has the best chance of being there at 19; he's a slightly less sought-after commodity, being dextrous rather than sinister, and being from a slightly colder weather area may hurt him a bit. Now, the wild card of course with any of these guys is signability. I don't honestly know about any of their representation, and frankly, I don't care that much right now. That will all be hashed and rehashed closer to the draft; for now, I prefer to look just at the players themselves.
Anyhow, that's another one in the bag. Hope you found it edifying, gratifying, and, um, some other word with -fying at the end of it. Have a nice Wednesday, everyone.
Edit: Turner is using Boras as an advisor; another reason he may be there at 19. Just a thought.
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I've seen Turner throw live...
I’m from St. Charles County myself. He’s an impressive talent, but like you, I don’t like how deliberate he is to the plate. I’m not a biomechanics expert in any way, shape, or form, but common sense seems to dictate that a guy who is that passive with his lower half would be puting unnecessary strain on his throwing arm. I’m not sure that’s how it works, but when I was an instructor a LLLLOOONNNGGGG time ago one thing I always focused on with older pitchers was being physical on the mound. Anyway, I wouldn’t be upset with the BoB snatching him up despite the fact that he doesn’t throw how my old butt would teach him. I doubt he really cares anyway what redbirdnation8206 has to say about him on a website visited by literally tens of people.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 4, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions
i didn't know either, but i did know the Google. it's this thing that searches the intertubes.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=249
Courtesy of Nate Silver, MSNBC’s collective man-crush of 2008. Quoting Gary Huckabay.
When I first wrote that "There’s No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect," it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That’s what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning—that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects—they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows.
Thanks!
Had I realized this was a common baseball acronymn (rather than an inside-VEB thing as I assumed) I might have tried this “Google” doohicky as you suggested. Which series of tubes must I follow to access it? And does anybody know if they have the Internet on computers now?
(Are you sure there isn’t a prominent politician who may have been swooned over by MSNBC in 2008 just a tad more than Nate Silver? I mean, I’m kinda tired of Silver’s overexposure, but when I think of a 2008 collective MSNBC man-crush he’s not the one that comes to mind)
Anyone? Anyone? Something Hussein Something?
Anyone?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry to hijack this thread
But I’ve got a little Trivia for everyone.
What does Clint Black, Conrad Bain, Charles Lindbergh, Rosa Parks, George A. Romero, Dan Quayle, Alice Cooper, Lawrence Taylor, Gabrielle Anwar, Rob Corddry, Natalie Imbruglia, Cam’ron, Gavin DeGraw, Carly Patterson, and Tackle Box all have in common?
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
what the ?
I hope he does spend it that way! If you end up like that, odds are you had a GREAT b-day.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
only better way to spend a BDay is if he didn't remember anything from it
then you know you really had a good day
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Thanks!!!!!
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Thanks!!!!!
Again!!!!!!!!!
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Just saw that it's your birthday,
hope it was a good one!
So far, so good.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
That's the only reason I put her on the list!
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
The linked study
by Viktor Wang seems to have a little bias in it. If you compare the first six seasons of a HS pitcher and a college pitcher it is pretty likely you would be comparing a younger player to an older player. I think it would be a lot more useful to look at the whole career of the player unless you are a very small market team that always loses their talent after they become eligible for free agency.
When I researched this in detail last year high school pitchers were at least twice as likely as college pitchers to become above avarage starters over their careers.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
but half as likely to make it to the majors at all.....
by cdb on Feb 4, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
So if they are half as likely to make it
but provide nearly the same value, then they are probably better players, right? I think do much attention is given to whether a player makes it and not enough to how good he is. It is a safe pick to nab a college pitcher, but they are more likely to be bullpen/depth guys.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
debatable...
as we know – we debated this before. Just wanted to put that in, in the interest of balance. I just think that it is worth pointing out that if a franchise is looking for depth – as the cards were in the past (maybe not so much now…) that a strategy focusing on college pitchers will be more fruitful. If you already have depth and are going for the homerun – you can risk a couple picks on high schoolers.
by cdb on Feb 4, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
I would agree with you
if the Cardinals had expressed an opinion that they were just building depth. From what I have read it seems they think the only measurements that matter is does a prospect make it to the big leagues and how long does it take him to get there.
One of the recent Luhnow interviews said they didn’t like HS pitchers because they don’t make it to the show quickly enough. He elaborated that they want a guy in the show in four years. I know Luhnow wasn’t running the draft then, but that is the kind of logic that says draft Blake Williams out of SW Texas with the 20th overall pick instead of Adam Wainwright out of Glynn Academy HS at the 29th.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
maybe the answer is to aim at college pitchers w/ high picks
and HS pitchers with lower picks. If HS pitching is such a crapshoot, do you get a substantially better return on early-round HS pitchers v. late-round HS pitchers?
The only answer that really matters
is to just have a better eye for talent and makeup. You have to have superior statistical evaluations and superior field people. If you have that then any strategy can work.
As far as pure strategy goes, I would lean toward taking position players early as they have less chance of catastrophic injury and are a little easier to project. Then I would prefer HS pitchers who are very physically talented followed by college pitchers.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
a good eye is a good start, but
to win consistently, you need to be smarter and/or willing to spend more to come out on top. the marlins and ryas have shown how to win inconsistently, but card fans expect more. the question is will mo ever get an A, or will his approach get us varying kinds of Bs every year
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I don't disagree
I wasn’t trying to defend the cards draft strategy – I was more trying to generalize draft strategy. College pitchers aren’t inherently bad draft picks.
by cdb on Feb 4, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not necessarily
if you can do a Wainwright-like contract that buys out arb years and a couple of free agent years. He is under contract for $9M option in 2012 and a $12M option in 2013. Nobody knows for sure what the market will be like then, but those are probably pretty good numbers for Wainer in his prime. If not, then you can decline.
Plus, we have never had any luck attracting any decent pitchers at market value – maybe we have a better chance with our own players.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Right
But you’re paying relatively near market rates still then for when he signed the deal, it’s just discounted due to the fact that we have next to no idea what he’ll be in 5 years when we could just go year to year.
Not afraid to nitpick
True
but this year aside, when was the last time current market rates weren’t a steal for a guy 4-5 years in the future? He would probably get $2.6M (his ’09 salary) in arb pretty easily this year.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Most of these are recent inventions
But there’s countless examples of pitchers being good for 2 years and not being in the league 5 years later. I’m not saying these deals aren’t team friendly (they are), just the marginal value on including the 7th+ year is pointless to this exercise—-you have no idea whether the guy will be interested in one of those deals first off, and even if he is, the “production – cost” is way, way higher in the first 6 years than it’ll be in 7+ so it doesn’t affect it very much anyway.
Not afraid to nitpick
Zack Wheeler
There is a lot mention of this HS RHP from Georgia on other sites (including the aforementioned Future Redbrids post). In fact one mock draft has the Cardinals picking him in the first round (I am sure that this proves the uselessness of mock drafts, but hey, they are there to spur discussion).
Does anyone have any insight on him? I am in the Georgia area and so is Wheeler, so perhaps I should mosey on over to his neck of the woods and catch a game later this Spring.
wheeler is my pet prospect for this years draft
have a buddy who saw him pitch and said he reminds him of waino…nice fastball with some sink that apparently gets to the mid 90’s but sits around 91-92 and also throws a curve that looks to be a real out pitch in the future…changeup is kinda iffy right now, but with him being so young, maybe he’ll get a feel for that…right now you have to say he projects as a top of the rotation starter…he is tall and lanky and looks like he can definitely add some muscle, which might up his velocity some…very projectable
mechanics look pretty good though i have not seen then in slow motion so that is subject to change
Turner is my boy
Watched the AFLAC game on FSN and his fastball life is unreal, it’s like Peavy+.
Not afraid to nitpick
There will be no...
SIGN (ING OF) BEN SHEETS!!!!!
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9176710/Despite-new-ownership,-Pads-still-likely-to-deal-ace?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49
Cards are telling agents they are ‘out of money’.
This one’s gonna grow legs. Long, nasty, pissed off legs.
pretty much
its hard to believe anything an agent says…
but why would they say a team is out of money?
That takes away from the competition to get players.
On a side note i think this team is one of the most insulated from the economy. Weve been near the top of attendance for years (I think 3 mil 9 out of the last 10?), we have a new stadium, and the all star game
Dont take me seriously :-D
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
to explain another team's lack of interest in a player?
i’d much rather say “team x won’t take my player because they have no money”, than to say “team x won’t take my player because he’s overpriced/undertalented/washed up/a big injury risk/has horrendous breath, picks his teeth in the dugout, and just generally is so offensive half their squad will request a trade to the nationals or just retire if team x takes him”.
by tom s. on Feb 4, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Most insulated?
That assumes that attendance is the prime revenue stream. What about advertising and sponsorship and tv money? I don’t know, but I would assume those dollars are hard to come by in the STL market but may not be in other markets.
Also just because attendance has been good in past years doesn’t mean the money will be there to buy seats this year.
A large amount of the ticket revenue is based on luxury boxes and I would think many companies are evaluating whether they can spend on luxury boxes this year. Just look at the “uproar” over Wells Fargo planning a conference in Las Vegas. I would assume that at some point people will begin scrutinizing expenditures on tickets and boxes also.
So it is really unclear whether St. Louis is insulated, but I highly doubt the assertion.
I have tried to be supportive of the FO this offseason
but if that is what they are telling agents, I am gonna call BULLSHIT. Unless the season ticket holders have completely abandoned the team this season, how in the hell could they be out of money? Did Tony, Mo, and Bill get all flustered the day Fuentes signed with the Angels and then go out and get so drunk they spent all of that 9Mish on booze, drugs, and hookers? If so, admit it.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
I never forget the...
oh, you meant they spent it on viagra, too.
I take back my subject line
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
see OCCardsFan's post above yours
for a perfectly logical possible explanation of why it might be true
or it could be just another rumor
he makes a decent point
I have a hard time accepting the 9M disappeared. I find it hard to believe they all of a sudden don’t have the money to sign anyone else. Let’s face it, these guys are obviously great businessmen, they probably have a lot of cash stashed away. If they are a bit worried about filling seats, what better way to show the fans you want to win then to throw a few million dollars at someone who can really improve the team instead of crying about being out of cash.
Of course you are right, it could just be another rumor.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
by mattyfrommo on Feb 4, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
I just have a feeling that they know people will come to the games anyway, so they have no reason to spend more. Except to make the postseason, which makes me not understand their logic.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Feb 4, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I've stopped being critical
of the FO b/c of free agent signings.
There is a reason Sheets, Dunn, Ramirez, Abreau, etc aren’t getting the money and it’s b/c beyond the Yankees, who knows what revenue will look like in 12 months?
This economy is brutal and scary — From a deep recession scary to bordering on the collapse of society in the next 24-36 months type scary if some things don’t get changed — And nobody else is spending, either.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
society isn't going to collapse Fritz
i’m with matty on this one. there’s no way in hell the Cards are out of cash. they have it, they just don’t want to spend it. so why can’t they just say that? why lie? why do they always spin instead of coming out & saying the truth?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Exactly
I think they are being prudent. I would love to see a Sheets signing as much as anyone else, but I don’t doubt that they have realized there is going to be a significant hit to their revenue this year.
Look around at corporate America and everywhere people are looking to cut back. I know my company is. I’m sure that many companies in St. Louis are having to look critically at whether they can really afford that luxury box this year, or the party room, or to have an ad during every Cards broadcast.
Isn’t Bank of America still a pretty large employer in STL? You think they want Congress to hear that they spent 100k on a luxury suite?
And while a few months ago they may have thought that signing Fuentes made sense, it doesn’t make sense to spend that money now. I bet that if you gave them a chance to opt out of Lohse’s contract right now, they would as well.
I found this hilarious...
Really? How about moving over to second base so he can play his natural position which, incidentally, he plays better than you, Mr. Jeter? That would be having his back and doing what’s best for the team at the same time. Then the team could deal Cano to someone else for a third baseman…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
God, yes. This must be obvious to the Yank's FO. They just don't want to damage Jeter's ego.
Jeter’s bat would play well at 2b, and his defense would improve. There’s a number of 3b that they could get by trade or FA. The best way to upgrade the Yankees is NOT to go buy all the top-flight pitchers. The best way is to upgrade the infield and outfield defense. that’s the “low-hanging fruit,” if you will, for runs on their squad.
This is what happens when you pigeonhole a guy in as your captain and team leader
If he starts to suck, you have no way out without pissing off your entire fan base. Let me give you an example…
After the Tigers routed the Yanks out of the playoffs in 2006, I was watching the World Series with a couple of fairly bright Yankee fans (yes, they do exist) who were talking about A-Rod and his upcoming opt out option after the 2007 season. They were discussing trading him before he could opt out so they could get some players back and trying to decide who would be the best haul to get. I broke in and said that the best possible move that the Yanks could make would be to trade Jeter, who was overpaid, declining defensively and offensively, and getting up there in years for a starting SS, but some small market team, like Kansas City, would overpay to acquire him because he would help out their attendance just because he’s Derek “F******” Jeter. This started a TWO HOUR conversation about how the club couldn’t have had that run of championships without him (I somewhat agree with this) and that his leadership and intangibles outweigh the performance difference between he and A-Rod on the field (I totally disagree with this), and that the fans would never forgive them for trading away a guy who should be a lifetime Yankee.
That gives you some kind of idea how much their fans love him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
this was discussed over at futureredbirds
but i think this is the year the cardinals could select a high upside projectable high school pitcher early…we have done a good job of adding a lot of quality depth to the minor league system(as evidenced by its top 5-10 ranking)…the one thing we have not done is produced a top of the end starter(waino doesnt really count)…i think this is the year, with all of the young arms, to draft one…i sort of agree with the whole TINSTAAPP philosophy, but still you have to take chances every once in a while…and as long as the mechanics are clean and repeatable, i say this is the year to take that chance
oh and zach wheeler reminds me of waino, both being georgia boys and all…so i’d love to have that in our system
While their is more safety in position prospects
TINSTAAPP is really kind of silly.
From the always correct wikipedia, "However, of the major league pitchers with 200 or more career wins at the end of the 2004 season, all were drafted in the first three rounds of the amateur draft:
1. Roger Clemens 328 (1983, 1st round)
2. Greg Maddux 305 (1984, 2nd round)
3. Tom Glavine 262 (1984, 2nd round)
4. Randy Johnson 246 (1979, 3rd round)
5. David Wells 212 (1982, 2nd round)
6. Mike Mussina 211 (1990, 1st round)
7. Kevin Brown 207 (1986, 1st round) "
I would imagine that is still essentially true today.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
negative.
moyer (6th) 246
Rogers (39th) 219
pettitte (undrafted) 215
Pedro (undrafted) 214
Smoltz (22nd) 210
The only guy to get to 200 since 2004 who was a first-3-round guy was schilling (2nd) 216
anyway, only 3 of the guys on your list were first rounders. That is interesting. You’d think it would be easier to identify future HOF talent…
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
oops, pettitte was 22nd round
a “draft and follow”, so he shows up on B-R as “amateur free agent”.
So it looks like, if you want to draft a future 200-game winner, you should choose wisely in the 22nd round.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Also
Clemens, Mussina, Big Unit, and Brown were all drafted out of college, so that kinda throws the argument of drafting high upside high schoolers on it’s head a bit as well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Not sure how
nobody ever said college pitchers don’t have success. Three of the top five are, after all, HS picks.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
The Cards out of money?
Why on earth would the Cards be telling agents they’re out of money? They seemed to have the money for Fuentes. If they are indeed broke you’d think they would keep that under wraps for as long as possible. They shouldn’t be helping to bring the market down and help one of their rivals. Could it be a bluff? Maybe the front office trying to sign free agents at a discount? Of course I could be lying to myself, hoping against hope, that our front office may still make some improvements before opening day.
they just changed their revenue projection
-$9M
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
There's another (heaven forfend) possibility -
(((((collusion, as in all the owners trying to drive down the cost of FAs, except the Yankee FO apparently didn’t get the memo…or maybe they did, and all the teams are pitching in a little to the Yankees so they can sign the most worthy FAs, and the rest of the league can point to the Yankees and say, "see, no (((((collusion)))))))))).
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
there's been collusion before, so why not again when they are afraid to spend the cash?
i totally believe there’s some collusion going on before i believe the Cards are out of cash.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
maybe, maybe not
I was sick to my stomach driving around STL at thanksgiving/Christmas when I came back to see my family. It just “feels” much, much worse in STL/Indianapolis/nashville etc right now, than it is in chicago/LA/NYC (though NYC may be on the verge of a massive breakdown…)
I really can’t blame them for being prudent, but damn. There are some deals to be had right now. If this was baseball mogul and you could save up for the big splurge, it would be a great time to try to win 130 games.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Looks like
the Yankees are trying to do just that. Wait and see, they will win 110+ games, then lose in the first round of the playoffs to the-next-team-to-come-out-of-nowhere, the Royals.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
OT: When did the cardinals non-tender tyler johnson
i knew they had NT’d flores, but i completely missed the johnson decision
it's all at once. there's a deadline to tender an offer. if you don't get an offer, you are non-tendered.
johnson just got overlooked in the other non-tenders.
funny we haven’t heard any discussion about picking johnson up on a two-year league minimum deal. i guess loogys are so poorly regarded that one with a broken wing is not seen as a good risk.
Additionally
There was a lot of buzz that the Cardinals let him go because his work ethic was shoddy. That’s not exactly something other teams will want to flock to.
How about a shortstop
It really doesn’t make sense to draft for a position of need if you end up overdrafting someone, but if a guy like Grant Green fell down to us (unlikely, but possible) we should definitely get him.
I also really like Tyler Matzek IMO, but there is zero chance that he will fall to us.
vivaelbensheets
There's a ton of elite Boras guys in this draft
One is sure to fall. Hell if the Strasburg (Boras) domino falls from Washington at 1 (which I could see given they have two picks in the top 10 to sign) I’d guarantee there’ll be a top 5-10 talent sitting for us at 19.
Not afraid to nitpick
which could be where that $9M is slated...
or I could be a completely delusional homer.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I mean
I’m as big an ownership defender as there is, I haven’t remotely questioned what they’ve done……..but if they are offering Fuentes 9M and then go cheap in the draft and/or trade deadline, I’m done with that.
Not afraid to nitpick
well, what if they are saving it for albert in 2013?
And after they re-sign Albert, there’s Wainwright and Wallace (who has a shot at chasing Bonds’ record, of course) to think about.
We can torture ourselves for a long, long time with this “if they don’t” stuff, because there’s always a next “what if” scenario… (well, i can torture myself. You can do what you want — but I suspect we’re in the same boat).
There’s a “tragedy of the commons” argument here, I think. For each of us individually, it’s morally satisfying to our individual egos to be like “dude, I’m donZ with giving DeWalletz my Moneyz”. Or whatever the kids say these days, on the P-D forum.
But from the “I live for this” group, our best bet is to make loud obnoxious noises when Bernie enters the room, and try to convince Bob the PLumber to buy season tickets, or at least the tuesday night package, so Mo can SIGN BEN SHEETS. Complaining is a lose-lose; it just costs dewitt money and makes us NOT get good players. Best case. Worst case, it doesn’t get us good players, and dewitt gets pissed and sells the team to a Sampson or mclatchy or Nutting. or a meddling idiot like mccourt or angelos. or a rickets, who can’t afford to buy the team but does, dooming the fans to decades of sadness.
There are VERY few “change of ownership” scenarios than benefit the fans of STL, imho. I really respect DeWitt and am shocked that 2 years after WINNING THE WORLD SERIES, and 3 years after winning 206 games over 2 seasons, that fans seem ready to riot against him because he won’t raise the payroll another $xM. x being a random number that no one knows, but it’s big, because the Cubs are spending big because it’s all debt that the current owners are going to sell and pay 50 cents on the dollar to transfer to the poor schmutz who met his wife at wrigley and borrowed $450M to buy the team…
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I agree with most of what you said
I don’t question the “cheapness” of the FO. I would much rather have them than the idiots who run the Cubs. I just don’t see why they haven’t even shown interest in Sheets. He would cost relatively little, 9 mil a year (although it seems that the price will drop even more), and it the contract wouldn’t affect any long term signings. Sheets is a good risk to take because if we do sign him we will probably make the playoffs if he is healthy.
vivaelbeñsheets
Look
I’m not rooting for an ownership change and barring vast changes never will. I’m not being melodramatic here—-and honestly I’m probably lying with this artificial deadline anyway—-I’m not going to burn my Molina jersey or scream out into the streets or make stoopid signs to bring to games, I’m saying I will personally be unhappy with recent events if at one point we have 9M to spend on Fuentes then the next we don’t have it for a 2nd round signability guy that costs what 1M over a standard 2nd rounder?
Not afraid to nitpick
If the Cards are out of money
they could have saved $800k by releasing Chris Duncan. In this market, he’d have been lucky to get a minor league contract with Spring Training invite.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2009 10:10 PM EST reply actions
it's probably true
OTOH, what if duncan comes in and hits .400 with 8 HR in ST, and we trade him for a good prospect? or what if our new MV4 is Ankiel, Ludwick, Pujols and Duncan? Then it’ll be as a great investment.
All four of those guys have the ability to put up a season of 1.000 OPS performance if they have a little luck, and all are in their peak years.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
So Colby Rasmus gets no playing time
and Chris Duncan is forced to go out there and break his neck again playing out of position?
Please, let’s think of Chris’s health!
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
How about we move Pujols to third while Glaus is on the DL
and stick Duncan at 1b, let RAnk move to right, and play CRasmus in cf? The Mang knows how to play there….shoot, I forgot about his dang wing….
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2009 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
dude, that totally screws Joe Mather.
the only solution is to play albert at 2B.
Seriously, how can this team not win 100 games, with all this depth?
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I'd go along with that, IF
Big Al can throw with his left hand…heck, he’s the best player in a generation, of COURSE he knows how to throw lefty, what was I thinking?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 5, 2009 3:34 AM EST up reply actions
Amauri Marti can teach him.
Marti can throw with either hand while wearing a mitt on both hands.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
How much is a lumbering LF with
a broken neck worth these days?
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
About $3.50
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Feb 4, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
it was about then
that I looked up and noticed that chris duncan was gigantic crustacean from the paleazoic era. It was the goddamn loc nes monster!
by Birds on the Matt on Feb 5, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
that damn lockness monster...
Dont take me seriously :-D
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
Also, look at what Jones has done in the minors in his short
career and compare it to what Duncan has
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2009 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
GRUMBLE
I hate my pinky finger!
Anyways, the point was that if the Cardinals are that strapped for cash…why resign Chris Duncan with a backlog of OF’ers (not just Daryl Jones-who shouldn’t even really be considered…that wasn’t going to be my point).
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 4, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
What are we going to buy with $800,000?
A couple new Ferrari’s for Tony and Duncan to drive to the ballpark? Ed McMahon’s solid gold commode for the locker room?
A healthy, full-season Duncan is probably worth upwards of $12M, so why would we release him to save us some chump change that won’t even buy us a Jason LaRue? Do I need to remind you about what happened when Ryan Ludwick finally got healthy?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Chris Duncan isn't near the athlete
Ryan Ludwick was, and it is disingenuous to act as if he was.
It isn’t just about dumping Chris Duncan. It’s about spending on redundancy and then claiming you are broke.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 5, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think he was comparing the abilities of Duncan and Lucwick
All he was doing was showing that when Ludwick finally had a healthy season, he put up great numbers. Whose to say that Duncan wouldn’t hit 30 home runs if he was healthy and played a full season?
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
You didn't answer my question
Where is Chris Duncan redundant? Show me another left-handed hitting corner outfielder capable of hitting 30+ homers with 3+ years of cost control left on the Cardinals 40 man roster. Then show me a player that the Cardinals can sign for $800,000 who has the potential to put up those numbers? If we were going to save money by not signing anyone, we should have release Schumaker, since Barton essentially makes him redundant, and he will make as much or more than Duncan in 2009.
Chris Duncan isn’t near the athlete. Ryan Ludwick was, and it is disingenuous to act as if he was.
What, exactly, does that have to do with anything? They both have proven that they can mash the baseball when they’re healthy, so they do have an apt comparison.
Disingenuous would be acting as if Duncan can’t be an .800+ OPS player when healthy, because all signs point to the opposite. Duncan’s career OPS+ is 116, while being injured nearly half of his big league career and playing through those injuries. He put up a 140 OPS+ in his first 280 AB’s at the major league level, then put up a .900+ OPS in the first two months of 2007, before he got hurt. Over his first 400 AB’s, he was a .920 OPS player.
It would be a really bad move organizationally to release a player who is that good only to watch him sign elsewhere for the same amount of money and hit 30+ homers while putting up a .850 OPS and a .360 OBP. As much as our outfielders get hurt, it’s not bad to have a couple of potential studs on the bench.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It has everything to do with what you said
“When Ryan Ludwick finally got healthy”
Ryan Ludwick was playing IN POSITION. Chris Duncan is a 1B built like a 1B playing in LF. He’s been injured each of the last two years BECAUSE HE IS PLAYING A POSITION HE PHYSICALLY CAN NOT PLAY.
He will never be fully healthy because he’s asking his body to do things it simply can’t do.
Chris Duncan can be a fantastic player when he is healthy. He is recovering, however, from an injury no player in the history of baseball has ever come back from. He had a procedure no player in the history of baseball has ever had.
If the Cardinals want to ‘play’ broke, it needs to be pointed out that they could have saved money in other ways…the simplest of which is not offering arbitration to an injured 1B playing in LF with a farm system and a 40-man roster full of OF’ers.
I like Chris Duncan. I don’t like the way he has been handled (when he was healthy and when he wasn’t). That wasn’t Chris’ fault.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 5, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
So his injury problems are because he playing out of position?
That’s is the most asinine statement I’ve ever heard. Why isn’t Ryan Braun’s body breaking down then? Or Gary Sheffields? They’re both playing “out of position” too. That’s like Hank Steinbrenner saying that pitchers shouldn’t have to run the bases. It’s ludicrous. I’m not even going to have this argument with you…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
They both have the bodies to play those positions
Chris Duncan does not. It’s like asking Shaq to be a PG. No matter how well he can dribble a basketball, eventually he’s going to get injured trying to move around like that over and over again.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 6, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
2008 LF defense statistics (UZR/150)
Chris Duncan: 9.6
Brian Barton: 2.6
Joe Mather: 25.1
Ryan Ludwick: -11.0
Skip Schumaker: 22.3
Explain to me
the difference between Chris Duncan and Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Gary Sheffield, and any other big lumbering guy who plays outfield? All those guys seem to stay healthy, and Duncan is better defensively than all of them.
It is not like asking Shaq to play PG. Matter of fact, the best PG in NBA history was 6’9" tall, just three inches shorter than Shaq, and two of the better forwards of the past 10 years are 7’0" tall. But I suppose you’re going to argue that Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett have different “body styles” so they should be able to play those positions without getting injured.
Your argument has no merit. His chances of getting hurt are the same at 1B as they would be in the outfield if he’s a player who tends to get hurt.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
My argument has plenty of merit
as I’ve shown. Simply wishing that the injury risk is the same at 1B as it is in LF is borderline ridiculous.
If that were the case, would you advocate a healthy-armed Pujols playing LF everyday instead of 1B? I mean, he’s just as likely to get injured playing 1B as he is LF!
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 7, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
exactly
pujols could still be an outfielder then, heh
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 7, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think asinine is going way too far there
it stands to reason imo
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 7, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think it's safe to say
that chris duncan “isn’t near the athlete luddy is”. That may be true, but going into 2008 all signs pointed to Duncan having a much higher ceiling, and i still think he’s the better hitter of the two despite Luddy’s glorious breakout season. It’s definitely not intellectually dishonest to take either position; reasonable men can disagree.
Releasing Duncan over 800K, though, would be almost exactly the same bad move that the indians and tigers made when they released Luddy.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Interesting question
as to who is the better hitter between Duncan and Ludwick when both are healthy. I think it is a pretty hard one to decide as Duncan has a better batting eye, but I think Ludwick has a better, more compact swing. I would have to go with Luddy as he has proven he can be effective against both LHPs and RHPs and, even when healthy, Duncan has struggled quite a bit against LHPs.
If I knew Duncan was going to healthy and return to his previous abilities I would prefer him over Ankiel, though. Mostly due to age and cost control, but Ank’s struggles in clutch situations also concern me.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
not sure that duncan is the better hitter
actually, I highly doubt that… but if he is, we have a lot of damage
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
If Duncan is healthy
I think they’re pretty similar hitters.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Duncan has a ton of potential
We should at least give him at bats in AAA for depth or to enhance his trade value before we flat our release him. Saving 800,000 dollars won’t do squat for this club. The potential that Duncan could return to 06 form is worth more than that.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 4, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Frankly the "out of money thing" seems like a bald faced lie.
They were throwing around cash at the beginning of the offseason and were willing to give Fuentes 9M per. Where did that 9M go?
Unless they can articulate a reasonable scenario in which people stop coming to games next year (unlikely) or the revenue sharing isn’t going to be as much, it all smells a little fishy to me.
But it's not just the revenue sharing...
does anyone know the breakdown of where their money comes from? I was always under the assumption that most of it came from advertising, corporate sponsorships, lux boxes (usually corporate), etc. Heard a report on NPR a couple of days ago after the whole Citibank/Mets fiasco, that a lot of companies are going to be unwilling to have their names on those gold plates next to the doors of the luxury boxes, esp. if those companies just laid off 2000 employees. So there’s a double chilling effect created by this economy….some companies won’t be able to afford those boxes anymore, and the ones that can might not want to be seen as spending their cash on a lux item when they’re laying off workers.
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 4, 2009 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
There should be less affect on the Cards
because of the Allstar game, but you’re right, the money may not actually be there anymore.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2009 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
you are correct sir
it’s a lie, a damn lie they are out of cash. they have it, they just don’t want to spend it. there’s a big difference between the two.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Elephant gives birth to midget
HAH!
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 5, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
Seriously
Posting that album cover was in good fun..it was a joke.
But what’s not a joke is the economy. Things seem to be getting worse by the month with the job situations/employment in the U.S. More and more companies are down sizing to stay alive and many good honest folks are finding themselves unemployed every day in scary numbers. From what I hear it’s going to get worse as the year goes on. In fact i wonder if I will even have a job in 6 months. So I guess I can see why some MLB teams are being careful with their money right now. The way things are going I can see where normal fans like you and me will not in any way be able to afford to go to a game this summer if you have bills to pay. I don’t think the stadium will be almost empty but I bet sell-outs will be a little more rare even on the weekends this season. I bet tickets will come pretty cheap as the season goes on. I know I won’t be going to a game in St. Louis this season, and it’s not that I don’t want to….I just don’t see myself having the extra cash to make the trip this year. And that’s if I still have a good job.
I’m not sticking up for ownership here, I’m not real happy with them either. They have not been real great with telling the truth to the fans and what not…but I can see why they might not want to go sign a big free agent, yeah even Sheets right now in this uncertain economy and watch their money a little more carefully right now. I don’t like it but it’s the harsh reality right now.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
You know, this would be a great argument to spend on bonuses in the draft...
and NOT on multi-year free agent deals. The Cards pretty much know how much money they are going to make in 2009. The TV deals were worked out in advance, and attendance probably won’t lag that much.
However,what the do NOT know is how long the economy is going to be in the shitter. If this recession continues for 2 or 3 more years, then the ticket sales will slow, and TV deals will really drop.
So, they can afford to throw a few million around in one-time expenditures to some draftees, but a prudent business would not commit a lot of dollars on expenditures into the future with revenue looking to be so uncertain.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
plus they were trying to trade for holliday
and would probably have given him an extention…
Dont take me seriously :-D
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
you are too smart to make this kind of argument, HL.
what exactly would the cards get for $800k? Even disregarding the serious arguments about dunc’s potential, what realistically would this accomplish? In a $91M budget, a $800k is a hiccup. It’s a rounding error.
It’s less, for instance than the difference between the cardinal’s position and ludwick and ankiel’s respective situation in arbitration which remains open. The cardinals have a $2m uncertainty in the two remaining arb cases — the difference between the cards winning both cases and the cards losing both cases. That uncertainty swallows up any gain we made by not offering arb or a contract to dunc.
if the cards were serious about generating money, they could take any number of courses to clear payroll. for instance, a salary dump on pineiro or kennedy, who both play positions where we have replacement level players available, could generate millions, not hundreds of thousands, of dollars.
it would have been more intellectually honest to just say “hey, still hate chris duncan, fyi.” than to pretend that $800K has an impact on the budget.
While ignoring your insulting nature
which really should get you suspended from this site, I’ll focus on my point (something you should have done).
If you have a family budget and you are near the upper most of it, you shouldn’t operate under the assumption that you can spend right up to the edge if you are going around wringing your hands about how ‘We are out of money’. If you had 6 nice pair of shoes at home but stumbled across a great pair of Jordans for $80, can you spend that $80 because it is at a discount while putting your family at their financial limit? No, no smart person would unless they let emotion get in the way.
That’s what the Cardinals did.
They were concerned last year about sending Chris down because it would cost him in arbitration the following year (something that upset Dave). They’ve shown poor judgement about when to begin playing Chris (to start his career) and when to bench him (when he was playing with a broken neck).
If they are going to spend money on family members who are redundant to this team and who may never fully recover from the first surgery of it’s kind in the sport, then don’t complain about how you are out of money. We are more than willing to play ‘chicken’ with Free Agents over the last 3 years, we should be willing to do the same for a player we have an abundance of who is coming off a very, very serious injury.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 5, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
He's not insulting you
He’s insulting your argument, and he did focus his point on how insulting your argument is to your intelligence. You are smarter than this. I think you’re saying this merely to prove a point about “crossing a line in the sand” and using Chris Duncan’s situation as your example because it’s easier to claim “emotional decision” about a player who has family ties to a member of the Cardinal organization.
Duncan really isn’t a redundant player, and even if you consider Mather, Rasmus, and Jones to be replacements for his skill set (which they haven’t shown they can be), he’s still not the most redundant player on the roster — Skip Schumaker is. There’s not a thing that Skip can do that Brian Barton cannot do as well or better at a cheaper cost for more cost-controlled years. Schumaker will also certainly make as much or more than Duncan in 2009, is 28 years old and isn’t going to get much better, if any at all, than what he showed in 2008, so why pay him for no upside when you can simply replace him with a younger, equally talented (perhaps better) player?
Re-signing Duncan was not an “emotional” decision — it was a smart business one. If he proves he’s healthy and reverts to his May 2007 form, he’ll help the Cardinal ballclub with his bat or via trading his bat to fill a need at mid-season. You can’t go out and sign a player of Duncan’s potential for the same amount of money, so it makes even less sense to let him go.
Using your analogy, Duncan is like a pair of Jordan sneakers that are worth $80, but only cost $10 because they are out of style at the time. If you see them on the discount rack, the prudent thing to do is to pick them up, because styles change all the time and they might we worth $80 again sometime soon, at which point you can unload them for a $70 profit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
minor quibble
skip will make 440K or so in 2008. He’s not arb eligible until next year.
But that’s a good point- the decision wasn’t “duncan for 850k”, it was “duncan for 850k or some other guy for 400k”. So the marginal payroll gain wouldn’t have been 850k, only 450k. Dumping a guy who has an outside shot at 40 HRs, one who showed great improvement on defense in limited time in MLB in 2008, over a 450K savings is just absurd.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I thought he was arb eligible this year for some reason
Looking at Cot’s he does only have 2.051 years of service time, so I guess I was mistaken. That’s what I get for looking at his stats and not his service time!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm wondering
if Duncan should retire… the injury sounds very limiting to his athletic ability, and could potentially harm his quality of life. I would hope that this has been addressed by the medical staff, but in lieu of recent events (several different players playing hurt) I really have no idea what is going on
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 6, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say it's worth it to give it at least another shot.
You’re right, there are consequences to his quality of life, but if I were him and were cleared by doctors I’d have to give it another shot. He’s succeeded enough at a point where it’s not a question “if” he can do it when healthy. We (and he) know he can do it.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
yeah
he just got $850k so it’s worth it I guess… there’s a lot of things I’d do for that kinda money!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 7, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
Turner
I got a hit off of Turner a few years ago when we were both 8th graders. Really I just stuck my bat out there and it happened to go between two fielders. So if I can get a hit off of him, pros should have no trouble destroying him right? But in all seriousness he is quite good, he dominated my high school last season if I remember right.
Also, Westminster is in Creve Couer, which is part of Saint Louis County not Saint Charles.
by Gnick on Feb 6, 2009 5:18 PM EST reply actions
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