Chris Carpenter!/ST Update
by JoeyBombs on Feb 28, 2009 1:44 PM EST
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PrintChris Carpenter is just got done pitching in his first outing of Spring Training. He looked great today going 2 innings with no problems. He gave up 0 hits, 0 walks, and 0 runs and didn't even throw 20 pitches. Mike Shannon said he looked like he was throwing free and easy and that he was not struggling with his arm at all. This sounds very promising to me. Carpenter was effective, located, and had zero signs of any health issues. The Down Side: He never really got into the 90's. But that may not be such a bad thing, since this is his first game in many days.
Jon Jay is also looking good. He has been playing DH and has gone 4 for 9 so far with a double and an RBI triple. The double was deep of the right field wall and was nearly a Home Run. Schumaker is hitting well and is playing decent defense not making an error so far, although I don't think he's done anything spectacular. I did notice on a groundball that he did not get down on it very much, but it was a very easy play. The ball was a slow roller and was pretty easy. Ankiel has already made some great defensive plays. Rasmus is 2 for 12 with a double. He also tracked down a ball over his head and got some glove on it but couldn't hang on. He was in right field though. Duncan has gone 2 for 9 with 4 strikeouts. Greene has gone 1 for 5. Our starting pitcher besides Carpenter haven't looked to good so far. Motte and Perez have both thrown a scoreless inning. Motte threw one strikeout and gave up 0 hits. Perez had 0 strikeouts and gave up 1 hit.
There's an early update on some of the Cardinals question marks.
Also Mather is looking good at third base. And he has taken number 7.
Duncan just came up with the bases loaded and had a Grand Slam robbed by Nationals outfielder, Maxwell. Then he came up with two men on and hit one to the wall. He's just missed 5 RBI's and 2 Home Runs by a few feet.
Cardinals winning 5-0
Franklin went 3 innings with 5 strikeout and just one hit (an infield hit by the way).
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But looked awesome regardless...
…of the fact that its the Nationals. Positive vibes today. Especially Carp and Franklin
in less fortunate news
ryan franklin had 2 IP, 4 SO, 0 BB, 0H
if that keeps up, meet your new closer …
This early in ST? Strange.
I wonder if they’re secretly putting him in the rotation competition.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
goold had a tweet on this.
he thinks he does better stretching out as a starter, even when he’s aimed at the bullpen.
I don't know
You’d think it would make more sense to have your starters stay in longer than your possible closer.
Efficient pitch count
He was only supposed to pitch two innings, but they wanted him to throw 30 pitches and it took three innings to get to 31.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
You know....
It’s possible Franklin is the long man/swing man/utility RHRP this year.
If Carp breaks camp healthy and Motte makes the team, our right-handed relief corps looks like Perez, Motte, KMac, Kinney and Franklin. With no Thompson, Franklin looks the best suited of those 5 for long relief. Of course, chances are there’ll be an injury somewhere, which likely pushes someone into the rotation and Thompson into the mix somehow – but again, it’s not impossible a SP injury won’t make Thompson the #5 (not sure they’re stretching out KMac to start now?) and leave Franklin as the RH long man in the pen.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 2, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Franklin as long man
My thinking as well Felonius. There is not room to keep Perez, Motte, KMac, Kinney, Franklin, Thompson, and two lefties in the pen. Somebody has to go. I am guessing that TLR would prefer to send down one of Perez or Motte. Another solution is to send down Thompson and have him start in Memphis (as the #6 starter in waiting) keeping both Perez and Motte in STL. That opens up a hole in long relief that Franklin can fill. Yes, Thompson is out of options but does anyone really think he’ll claimed? I don’t. It helps us in two ways. Franklin is an upgrade in long relief over Thompson and Thompson is an upgrade as a starter over Hawksworth or whoever else we have in starting in Memphis (especially with Mort and Boggs both injured right now).
Yeah I think I agree with that
Even if Thompson DOES get claimed (and I’m a Thompson fan – I think he’s been mis-used here and he’s a pretty reasonable guy to have as a spot starter and long-man) I’m not sure it hurts us too much. Todd can probably do the same job just as well (although I’d prefer him to have another 6 months or so in AAA) and Boggs has a similar skillset too.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 3, 2009 5:12 AM EST up reply actions
the sauce closes
in memphis
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Franklin won't be closer
Hes nails in the 8th and was today too. But lets not forget what happened last time we thought that would translate into saves.
"lets not forget what happened"
didn’t he pitch better in the 9th than in the 8th? Like, 50 points of OPS better, half as many walks, more K’s, etc?
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
Jay
has always been a good hitter. Think there has been some talk about his unconventional swing? Maybe I’m wrong…but I see Jay as trade bait if he has a good spring; possibly stepping in a taking the Skippy role next year if not.
Not a bad problem to have – lots of good outfielders.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
On the Duncan HR he had taken away from him.
I’m not a Duncan fan but from the picture on the post-dispatch website he was totally robbed. Maybe his power really is coming back. 2 balls to the warning track or deeper in 1 game last year would have been unthinkable.
it's actually scary to me
the guy had a golden sledgehammer before. If he’s only got warning track power now, he’s not gonna be what he was before.
And I AM the biggest duncan fan here ;)
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
Golden Sledgehammer?
Do you have pictures of him up in your locker?
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
eh
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/golden_sledgehammer.php
8th in MLB for longest average home run distance ;)
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
No one said he only had has warning track power now.
Hitting two balls to the warning track and getting robbed in one game is not a bad thing. One of them was over the wall anyway.
keep in mind that the wind can seriously rob hits down there. so it could have been pounded but pushed back.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Mar 1, 2009 2:22 AM EST up reply actions
and he said
he would have had two looooooooong home runs. In fact, in the would-have-been-grand-slam flyout, Shannon said, at contact, that that ball was long gone…
Yadi swings and hits a high fly ball... Endy Chavez goes back, to the track, to the wall... ITS A GUNNER!! Yadi gives St. Louis the lead in the top of the ninth!
John Rooney said that
Duncan would have easily had two homers, but the wind was blowing in.
by ultimatecardinalfan on Mar 1, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
The idea of 'Duncan depriving others of playing time is not necessarily unthinkable . .
it’s upspeakable. . .
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
It's easy to forget how completely out of line that was with his
minor league stats but unless we’re going to assume he’s a late bloomer his true talent level probably is less than ~125+ OPS
completely agree
I totally agree with Azru. We have to remember the complete picture when dealing with Duncan (or anyone). He had a career OPS of .751 in the minors. I still think he can regain some of the power he displayed late in his minor league career, but it would shock me if the guy ever hit .293 again in a season, like he did in 2006.
Just now, I realized a good analog for him is probably Jeff Francouer (I live in Atlanta so I am shocked I didn’t make the connection earlier). People down here are rooting for him to regain some big numbers from his rookie year, but I would be shocked if that would happen, especially looking at his minor league figures. And Francouer is from Atlanta so everyone is rooting for him (kind of like the coach/father connection with Duncan, although we aren’t blinded by that connection thankfully).
All that said, I was at ST and was on the 1st base side for that HR robbing and it was the best defensive play I saw in the first 4 games. Def a HR if not for the great grab. And the wind all 4 games was fairly strong and more in than out, so I concur with other reports on more of those warning track balls going out otherwise. That said, overall Duncan looked a bit uncomfortable up there and it seemed like he struck out swinging a lot, getting fooled on off-speed stuff.
Francoeur? Really?
- Francoeur Career: .268/.312/.434 92 OPS+
- Duncan Career: .266/.353/.487 116 OPS+
The difference? Jeff’s played nearly three full seasons while Chris has been hurt for all but 6 months of his first three years in the big leagues. Duncan has much better on-base skills than Francoeur does — Francoeur is a free swinger that doesn’t hardly ever walk (115 BB in 2305 MLB PA’s, Duncan has 119 BB in 1019 MLB PA’s). He has little to no plate discipline at all. Can’t say that same thing about Duncan. I don’t think that they’re comparable players.
Carlos Lee’s career Minor League OPS was .806 and he’s been a pretty good big league hitter for most of this decade. Duncan’s last few seasons in the minors showed some definite promise — all of his final three seasons were over .800 OPS before his 2006 call-up. His career minor league OPS is dragged down by his dreadful first couple of seasons, but he showed improvement at every level in the minors.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
good points
In the sabermetric sense they are not great comparables, I guess I was thinking more in their overall stories (former first rounders, power hitters, local ties, started hot in the majors and then dropped off). I agree that if Duncan is healthy perhaps he can return to some former glory. I just don’t see him hitting .290 on a consistent basis.
I don't think he can hit .290 on a consistant basis either...
but Francoeur has to hit .290 to even be a productive player at his position. Duncan can hit .265 because he’ll have an OBP of .350-.360 and slug around .480-.500, for an OPS around .850-.880. His on-base skills aren’t tied to his batting average like they are with Francoeur.
In nearly 1200 fewer PA’s Duncan walked more times! That’s RIDICULOUS!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
If Duncan "only" puts up a .850 OPS
than he won’t be very valuable due to his defense. I would still rather try Barton in left.
vivaelbeñsheets
Again...with the defense
He’s really not that bad of a defender, and he’s gotten better every year, despite being banged up. He was a -4.4 in the outfield last year and a -6.5 in LF, mostly due to his arm (rated at -3.2, which Barton isn’t going to improve any, although his arm is rated at 1.7 in LF, which makes no sense to me), his RngR was 1.5 in LF. He was probably hurt more last year that he was at any point in his career, but his defense improved.
Barton was a 15.3 last year in left field. Assuming he hits his CHONE wOBA projection at .329, he’d have to be at least that good of a defender to make up for Duncan if he hits his CHONE projection. I don’t believe he’s that good of a defender, and I think Duncan could be better if given a healthy shot at playing the position.
Again, he’s not a great defender, but he’s better than a lot of other corner outfielders out there that have his impact with the bat.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by comp, dunn runs about a .900 ops and he is an absolute travesty
on defense — like -20 runs and worse. and he’s still a 1 to 2 win LF.
Barton could easily be a 1 to 2 WAR LF
His CHONE projection is a .324 wOBA. Over 600 PA appearances that would make him -3 runs offensively. His UZR/150 in left field last year was 15.3. He is obviously not that good, however, he should be able to manage at least +5 defense in left. Add +20 runs replacement level and -6 positional adjustment and you have around a 1.6 WAR player.
CHONE projects Duncan for a .351 wOBA. Over 600 PA that would be around 10 runs above average. His UZR/150s have been right around -7 in each of the last 3 seasons. I don’t see any reason why he would improve next year. If you call him a -7 run fielder next year, than that would cancel out the offensive difference between the two players. Add 20 runs replacement level and – 6 runs for position, and he is a 1.7 WAR player.
So they are pretty much even going into next year and that is using CHONE which is by far the most pessimistic on Barton. Bill James and Marcels project around a .340 wOBA for Barton, while there Duncan projections are pretty much the same as CHONE’s. Also Barton has the ability to play other positions besides left, which would give him an advantage over Duncan.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 3, 2009 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And....
Barton is right-handed. That’s a huge advantage. Duncan doesn’t hit LHP well and we’ve got a few of those players (Schu, Ankiel). I think Barton should be leading off next year vs LHP.
Anyway, with Mather and Schu both taking infield roles (most likely) on opening day (starting 2B and either starting 3B or corner inf/outf backup), surely with 5 OF spots (unless we carry an extra reliever due to our horrible schedule) we can accomodate Ludwick, Ankiel, Rasmus, Duncan and Barton?
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 4, 2009 4:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see your reasoning...
Barton is right-handed. That’s a huge advantage.
The current Cardinal lineup is loaded with right handed power hitters (Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus, Greene, Mather), but only has one left handed power hitter that’s a regular (Ankiel). We face a lot fewer left handed pitchers over the course of the season than right handed pitchers.
So, if they are equal in terms of WAR, wouldn’t it make more sense to have the left handed bat that can sometimes be platooned with a right handed bat like Mather against lefties?
Duncan doesn’t hit LHP well and we’ve got a few of those players (Schu, Ankiel).
Most lefties don’t hit left handed pitching. But all of those guys shell right handed pitching to death. As I said above, we’ll face more righties than lefties over the course of the year.
I don’t see how Barton being right-handed makes a lick of difference, especially on this particular club. If we’re talking about the Oakland A’s, I could see your point, but we’re not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
?
Point to something I said that isn’t true.
Then point to a spot where I’m talking about the poster personally and not his argument.
There’s nothing malicious in that entire comment.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Who leads off
vs LHP then? I also think it’s a stretch to call Greene a right-handed power hitter. To my mind, we’re a little over-balanced with lefties (Schu, Ank and Dunc) if anything.
The main argument for Barton I think is that it just makes roster construction and team choices that much easier.
Last year we got killed by LHP on a regular basis. Having another reliable RH bat in the OF would be useful when it currently looks like we’ve got precisely ONE (Ludwick), given Mather looks to be pencilled in at 3b.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 5, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Any number of people could lead off against left-handed pitching
Including Barton himself. But to say that because he’s right-handed gives him an advantage over Duncan doesn’t really make sense. If Duncan is the better option than he should play, right handed or not.
A Duncan/Barton platoon sounds like a good idea to me, and Barton is a very good option as a 4th outfielder.
Mather may be penciled in at 3B to start the season, but he’s hopefully going to fill the Spezio role after that and get some time in the OF as well.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
This is where we disagree
I don’t see any reason why he would improve next year.
I actually do see reasons why he would improve this year:
- He’s improved his defense every year he’s been in the big leagues, and he didn’t start playing outfield until 2006, so he’s got a bit of a learning curve to deal with.
- If he’s healthy it would be the first time since 2006. If he’s healthy he can shag more fly balls and get more practice time instead of nursing injuries constantly. This will also improve his ability to get to balls in the outfield.
I’m not saying he’s going to be above average, but if he’s a -4 to -2 player in the outfield that makes him about a 2 WAR player.
Bill James and Marcels project around a .340 wOBA for Barton, while there Duncan projections are pretty much the same as CHONE’s.
Bill James and Marcel are notoriously optimistic about players with very little track record, CHONE is not. I think that Barton falls somewhere in the middle of the projections, but I also think that Duncan has the capability of being a .380-.390 wOBA guy when fully healthy. With a slight improvement on defense, that makes him a 2.5 WAR player.
I’d love to see Barton hitting in the 9 hole every day because of his on-base skills and his speed, but I’m not sure that’s the best thing for a team with only one good left handed power hitter in the lineup (Ankiel).
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Hmm.
He “improvement” on defense has been from -7.5 UZR/150 in 06 to -6.5 UZR/150 last year. I wouldn’t call that an improvement, at least not to any significant degree, more just random variation.
Also, you can’t just say that the projections for Barton are optimistic and then say that you think that Duncan will outperform his projections by 40 points. Projections are meant to project the mean. Of course Duncan has the ability to outperform his mean projection be a “.380-.390 guy”, but Barton also has to ability to outperform his projection.
Look, the projections are meant to project what it most likely to happen. Duncan, injuries aside, is definitely not a lock for a .380-.390 wOBA, he should be expected to have around a .350 wOBA, just like Barton can be expected to have around a .325 wOBA. When you consider defense they are almost exactly even for next year.
vivaelbeñsheets
i think the key with projecting duncan
is, as i said in the other thread, his projection shouldn’t look like a bell curve with its peak at the point of his projection. because of his unique history, he’s likely to either be terrible (still hurt) or very good (as in late 06, early 07).
If I can read his mind momentarily, I think fourstick is projecting the upside because he assumes that the downside of duncan would not last very long in the majors. Dunc is either going to hit at a .850+ OPS or he won’t stick on the team.
did you see the fungoes article proposing a barton/duncan platoon? check it out.
I would love a Barton/Duncan platoon
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 4, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Random variation?
He’s gotten better in three straight years, while being hurt most of the time, but I can’t expect him to be better this year if he’s healthy? I’m sorry, but if that’s the case, then you can throw all of your projection systems out the window since that is exactly what they do — predict future performance based on past performance.
Seems to me that he’s probably going to be no worse than -8 in the outfield. You know who was -8 last year? Rick Ankiel, who seems to get the benefit of the doubt because he was hurt part of last year. Gee, sounds a lot like the argument that I’m making for Duncan doesn’t it?
i’m not saying that Barton won’t exceed his projection, he might do that. But I am saying that I’ve seen Duncan perform at that level with the bat in the big leagues before. I haven’t seen Barton do anything that would make me want to sit a possible 30 HR guy behind him, regardless of how good he might be on defense.
Again, I think that a lot of us who depend on WAR really overvalue a player’s defense — especially when that player plays a low leverage defensive position like left field. The Red Sox have won two titles with Manny Ramirez playing left field, and the Phillies won last year with Pat Burrell in LF and Ryan Howard at 1B. All those guys are terrible defenders and good hitters, and Duncan isn’t near as bad as either of them. Considering that we have plus defenders at every other position, I think we can sacrifice one below average outfielder if his bat is .850 – .900 OPS worth of good.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
WAR is the best possible way to objectify value
A run saved on defense is just as important as a run gained on offense. A run saved by a left fielder carries the same value as a run saved by a short stop. You keep citing that Duncan is a .850 – .900 OPS player, but for someone who has only done that at one extended period over his career, he doesn’t exactly get a free pass to assume that his offense will make up for his defense. If he rakes in spring and shows that he is healthy and back to his old self, then yes, but if the season started today, Barton and Duncan are projected to be equally valuable players.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 5, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
This is your original post
If Duncan “only” puts up a .850 OPS
than he won’t be very valuable due to his defense. I would still rather try Barton in left.
You’ve proven that he’s just as valuable as Barton if he puts up an .850 OPS and has his career average defense at -6 UZR/150.
My whole argument is that Duncan is still a valuable player when healthy, despite his defense, and the replacement that you use is just as valuable, so obviously Duncan must carry some value despite his defense. You’ve essentially refuted your own argument!
A run saved by a left fielder carries the same value as a run saved by a short stop.
Here we go again…
It would hurt the team to much greater extent to have a -6 player at SS than a -6 player in LF, which is why so many all-glove/no-field guys play the SS position and none of them play the LF position. So no, they are not equal, which is why you have positional adjustments as an aspect of WAR. By adjusting positionally, you are adjusting for the scarcity of quality two way players at a given position. That implies that there is a difference between runs saved by the SS and runs saved by the LF, because a good SS will save more runs over the course of a season than a good LF, simply because they have more opportunities.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
eh?
it will hurt the team equally as much to have a -6 play shortstop (in fact there’s a good chance Greene will be, give or take, that guy) as having a -6 LF. Other than that, i think your arguments for duncan over barton are fair.
You could equally argue, by positional scarcity, that there are a LOT more players capable of being a -6 LF than a -6 SS, so the -6 shortstop is more valuable.
Either way you look at it, 6 runs below average at shortstop is = 6 runs below average in any defensive position.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 5, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
If this is the case...
Then why are there so many -6 LF in the game and not -6 SS?
Positional scarcity.
I disagree that Carl Crawford is as valuable to a team’s defense as 1987 Ozzie Smith or 2003 Jim Edmonds, even though they were the best defenders at their respective positions in those respective years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Can you back that up?
Can you give a statistical reason why a runs saved by a left fielder isn’t as valuable than a run saved by a short stop?
vivaelbeñsheets
Why should I prove a negative?
Show me a statistical reason how plays can be measured in runs that can subsequently be measured in wins.
A lot of what we do is fuzzy math, but I find it hard to believe that teams would put up with so many crappy left fielders defensively and fewer crappy defensive SS if they were exactly the same.
That said, I explained my reasons up above.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
UZR is plays measured in runs
So when you say that Duncan is a -8 defender, that means that he saves 8 fewer runs a season than the average left fielder.
Conversely a -8 short stop saves 8 fewer runs than the average shortstop, but he is much more valuable than the -8 left fielder because he plays a much harder and scarcer position.
vivaelbeñsheets
So
A great defensive SS is more valuable than a great defensive LF, right?
Great…glad we could have an argument over nothing.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yes
But that doesn’t mean that the spread of defesne in left should be valued differently than at short. A +5 defender in left is the same amount of wins better than a -8 defender in left, as a +5 defender at short is over a -8 defensive shortstop.
Therefore good defense matters at all positions equally.
vivaelbeñsheets
See this is where you lose me every time
Then why don’t teams stock left field with +20 defenders if it is so important?
Answer: Because it’s NOT as important as having good hitters at that position and it’s more important that they have good defensive players at premium defensive positions like, I don’t know, short stop.
Also, by definition, the league average SS is a better defensive player than the league average LF, so defense at SS is more important than defense in LF. This is why ratings are adjusted for position, along with positional scarcity.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Teams are starting to stock excellent defenders at tradionally offense first positions
The Rays did it last year with Crawford and Gabe Gross who are both mediocre bats an excellent defenders. The Mariners are doing in next year with Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez. The Orioles are doing it with Adam Jones and Feliz Pie. Teams are starting realize that runs saved are just as valuable as runs scored. In a couple of years, I think that we will see a massive change in how front offices think about defense.
vivaelbeñsheets
there's another repercussion of this
an artifact of the way defense is measured: because “league average == replacement level” on defense, when some teams start playing better defenders at a position which used to be an “offensive” position, the “average” defensive skill level at that position will increase, driving down the relative value of the “good bat, bad glove” guys even if their performance doesn’t change.
IE manny ramirez will have a lower UZR even if he catches the same number of balls in a year, because Ken Griffey Jr is now a DH and Adam Dunn is a 1B.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
there weren't.
Then why are there so many -6 LF in the game and not -6 SS?
Replacement-level defense is considered league average defense. That means there were exactly as many net minuses as pluses at LF, just as there were at SS. You can verify this yourself by going to fangraphs, exporting to excel, and then summing the UZR run value column.
Specifically, there were 10 players worse than -6 in LF last year, out of 216 players, and 6 players worse than -6 at SS, out of 129 players. The ratios of “very bad” LF’s to “good” LF’s and “very bad” SS to “good” SS, are almost identical (one out of 21), even using your arbitrary “-6” cutoff.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
should add
this ratio of very bad to good thing was very surprising to me, and should not be taken as a rule without a lot more investigation. but it’s a fascinating coincidence, if that is what it is.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
I see what you're saying...
now look at what my argument is.
When you do your analysis, how many SS do you find that logged more than 1000 innings and were worse than UZR/150 -6? I found three: Greene, Betancourt, and Drew.
Now, how many LF do you find with 1000 innings at the position and a UZR/150 worse than -6? I found 4: Dunn, Bay, D. Young, and Ibanez.
Look at the difference in players there. The teams with the crappy SS aren’t benching their crappy SS because they don’t have a BETTER SS to replace him with (with the exception of Drew who also has a great bat) — positional scarcity. But those teams with the crappy LF could replace those players with a better defensive LF, but chose not to because they would be taking a great bat out of the lineup (with the exception of Young — who did get replaced down the stretch last year by Denard Span after Span proved he was a better offensive option). The Mariners couldn’t replace Betancourt at SS with a better player, but they could have moved Ibanez out of the OF and put him at DH, but they didn’t because teams don’t value corner outfield defense as the same as middle infield defense.
You could chalk this up to “doing things they way they’ve always been done”, but not even the front offices that have employed the sabermetric approach to things value corner outfield defense that much. Jack Cust still plays outfield on occasion in Oakland because he has offensive ability.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
actually, no, I'm not sure what your argument is
I didn’t check, but it looks like from your response that there were 4 LF and 3 SS who meet your arbitrary cutoffs. That seems like a pretty even number of “guys who suck defensively” relative to other players at that position.
Teams are going to balance perceived bat and perceived defense and play the guy who they think will help them win by either scoring runs or preventing runs. Each team will have their own system for doing this; I’m sure they don’t use UZR, especially as implemented at fangraphs.
And some teams will be better at it than others. I wouldn’t use the decision-making process of a team that lost 101 games as an argument to support a decision-making process.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
Read this
His CHONE projection is a .324 wOBA. Over 600 PA appearances that would make him -3 runs offensively. His UZR/150 in left field last year was 15.3. He is obviously not that good, however, he should be able to manage at least +5 defense in left. Add +20 runs replacement level and -6 positional adjustment and you have around a 1.6 WAR player.
CHONE projects Duncan for a .351 wOBA. Over 600 PA that would be around 10 runs above average. His UZR/150s have been right around -7 in each of the last 3 seasons. I don’t see any reason why he would improve next year. If you call him a -7 run fielder next year, than that would cancel out the offensive difference between the two players. Add 20 runs replacement level and – 6 runs for position, and he is a 1.7 WAR player.
I have said that I believe that they are equal players next year. My reasoning for picking Barton is that he would provide more versatility on defense because he has the ability to play center, and he would give us a viable leadoff hitter against lefties.
Your argument for Duncan is that he has a better chance of breaking out offensively than Barton does and his bad defense isn’t that detrimental because he is in left.
vivaelbeñsheets
You pick versatility
I pick the better bat.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
No!
I pick the BETTER BAT! Barton’s best offensive skill is getting on base — and he doesn’t do that any better than Duncan, who also happens to have a higher slugging percentage. Show me a projection system that projects Barton’s bat to outperform Duncan’s? There isn’t one. Nobody expects him to be a better offensive player. Not even you.
You continue to make my argument seem like it has holes in it. It doesn’t. My analysis is spot on — you’re the one that keeps coming up with reasons why Barton is a “better player” than Duncan, when you yourself admitted that even though Barton could be a win better on defense they would be nearly exactly the same player in terms of value.
You are literally backtracking on your own analysis now! You’re picking Barton because you think he will outperform his projection. I’m picking Duncan because I think he’ll outperform his projection, but even if he doesn’t he’ll still have a better bat at his projected level than Barton does if he outperforms his.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I have said a million times
THEY ARE EQUAL GOING INTO NEXT YEAR. i respect your reason for picking Duncan but you seem to refute the possibility that Barton would be justs as good of an option.
vivaelbeñsheets
I do refute that notion based on your premises
I think you’re overvaluing Barton’s defense, undervaluing Duncan’s improvement in that area, and overvaluing the importance of having a good defender in the corner outfield.
What I do know is that Duncan’s bat has a chance to be much better than Barton’s does — until he proves that isn’t the case, I will take Duncan.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You have misguided views about defense
I think you’re overvaluing Barton’s defense, undervaluing Duncan’s improvement in that area
I projected Barton for a +5 UZR/150 next year. He was +15 last year in limited playing time and he has the speed of a CF. I don’t see how I am overvaluing his defense at all.
Duncan on the other hand is a lot easier to project on defense. His UZR/150 over the last 3 seasons have been -7.5, -7.1 and -6.5. That is not improvement, it is more likely just random variation, and if it is improvement than it isn’t significant.
and overvaluing the importance of having a good defender in the corner outfield.
You are saying that is isn’t as important to have as good of defender in left than at short. That isn’t true at all. A run saved in left carries the same value as a run saved at short.
You keep citing that teams don’t seem to care about defense in left because it isn’t as valuable, however that isn’t the case. They figure that any schlub could play good defense in left so they put an offense first guy there. As we see with Duncan (and players like Dunn, Burrell and Ibanez), that is not the case. We also see with Barton (and players like Crawford and Lewis), a player can play well above average defense in left as well.
In fact, if you look at the UZR/150 last year by position, among qualifiers left field defense had a bigger spread than any other position besides right field, which is basically the same as left.
So, we can conclude that a good defender in is more valuable than a bad defender in left field (or right), than at any other position.
vivaelbeñsheets
Do the words
“I think” have any relevant meaning to you whatsoever? You’re not going to convince me that you’re right, because I believe that you are overvaluing defense. Period.
I will take Duncan’s bat over Barton’s defense any day of the week and twice on Sunday, providing that they are both healthy.
That said:
if you look at the UZR/150 last year by position, among qualifiers left field defense had a bigger spread than any other position besides right field, which is basically the same as left.
So, we can conclude that a good defender in is more valuable than a bad defender in left field (or right), than at any other position.
I fail to see how this is conclusive. The bigger the spread is between good players and bad, the more it leads me to believe that you don’t need great defense at that position to be successful, because there are teams, successful ones in fact (World Series Champions anyone?) who play horrible defenders in LF. In fact, only one playoff team from a year ago had a plus defender in that position — Tampa. Everyone else had cruddy defenders there, including two of the worst in the game!
If you had a small spread of runs between 1st and last, that would indicate to me that teams must only play good defensive players at that position, because their defense suffers too much when they play a truly horrible defender there.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Barton has better defense
there’s the tie breaker
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 6, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Actually it isn't
We have already established that they are like to be equal players next year. Fourstick, however, continues to try and convince me of his viewpoint.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 6, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
well, i'm not that convinced either
just because you keep saying it, doesn’t make it true.
I really, really hope Barton is as good as duncan, but he’s still got a lot to prove. So does Duncan, at this point.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
Nobody can know for sure
how well either of these players will do, duh. However, using mean projections for offense and educated guesses for defense we can conclude that they out of the 100’s of possible outcomes, the one most likely is that they will be equal-value players.
vivaelbeñsheets
This is all very fun
but isn’t Duncan really competing with Ankiel and Rasmus for PAs and isn’t Barton competing with Mather?
I certainly hope Duncan’s PAs vs LHPs are very limited and I doubt Barton will be able to push any LH-hitting OFs out of the lineup vs. RHPs.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I think
If we’re assuming that Duncan and Barton are basically equal in value and that their projections are more or less the same (taking defense into account) in 09, we’d be better off picking the right-hander who can hit lefties, given our relative glut of LH OFs (Ank, Schu, Rasmus and Dunc) and relative paucity of RH (Ludwick and possibly Mather, although he’s likely to be at 3B on opening day).
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Mar 9, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
OK
but he still needs to prove he is that player. I am OK with him getting ST ABs, but if he sucks in ST (currently hitting .100) then he should have to go to AAA to prove himself. He has been horrific for 1.5 years now and will turn 28 in May. Given that he plays a low value position and plays it in a below average fashion, he will have to put up ~125 OPS+ level of offensive production just to be as valuable as Skip was last year.
Of course, it is possible he could return to a 140 OPS+ level or thereabouts. Then he will be a very useful player.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I understand he has to prove he is that player
But to say it’s a travesty he’s taking time away from other players isn’t right. He has actually demonstrated in the past (at times) that he can be a borderline elite hitter and UZR at least doesn’t even put him as a travesty in LF.
Not afraid to nitpick
Agreed
as long as we don’t see a replay of the last year and a half of stubbornly playing a non-performing player. If he plays another year and a half at the level he has played at since mid-2007 then it would be an egregious travesty to continue to give him ABs. I will certainly suspect that every time he goes into a slump he is hiding yet another injury. He needs to put up an OPS in the neighborhood of .850 or better to merit playing time.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I agree so hard with that
Duncan isn’t an automatic value-type player like RaZZums and Barton, who both have high walk totats and play excellent defense. Duncan needs to rake to be more valuable then those guys. If he has a so-so spring training, then he should be sent down to AAA.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 2, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
i don't necessarily disagree
though i don’t think it’s as open-and-shut of an argument as you make it. Regardless, Duncan’s definitely done a great job of taking walks at the MLB level. His career MLB walk rate is higher than any single season of Barton’s in the minors, except for the age-23 year spent at A/A+ ball.
Rasmus is going to be something special; the only questions are “when”, and “how special” Duncan was something special 2.5 years ago.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
aye
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
I was thinking
He looks like a mon determined
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Mar 2, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
homophone city and alliteration alley?
Being down at ST and lounging in the bleachers for 4 games with buddies gets one’s mind going, and at one point we talked about how many players in ST had alliterative names. The 2009 STL Alliteratives:
2B – Skip Schumaker
3B – Brian Barden
OF – Brian Barton
OF – Jon Jay
SP – Chris Carpenter
RP – Royce Ring
Honorary Coach – Dave Duncan
OK, we can’t quite field a full team, but we tried…
Impressed
Carp looked good, but Franklin was a big surprise. I think Franklin did better yesterday than he did most of last season – but then again, this is only Spring Training and not a real game. Let’s hope that Carp pitches like this during the regular season.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
By the by
I’m Rec’ing this post and encourage others to do the same so it can become the first in a month longs “Spring Training Chatter (until 400 posts)” type fan post, much like the Hot Stove fan posts.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Mar 1, 2009 6:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
sounds like a good idea
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
Can JoeyBombs change the FanPost title?
that way members would know to use this as the catch all thread instead of thinking it’s all about Carp.
and in spirit of ST chatter...
Luddy is out at least until Tuesday with discomfort in his oblique. Just wanted to quote TLR on what he said about Luddy: “He wants to play with it, but Barry [Weinberg, head athletic trainer] said, ‘Why push it?’ And I totally agree. He took 1,000 swings yesterday after the game was over. He stayed back, and I don’t think I’ll play him tomorrow either.” I’m really liking Ludwick this spring. He wants to perform for us. He wants to play at his best. He is pushing himself to the limits for the team. And that is what a real baseball player must do. Kudos to Studwick!
Yadi swings and hits a high fly ball... Endy Chavez goes back, to the track, to the wall... ITS A GUNNER!! Yadi gives St. Louis the lead in the top of the ninth!
Yeah
but I hope he doesn’t pull this boneheaded crap during the season, if for no other reason than he won’t have to because he is hitting.
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