Home Field Advantage -- Part I
by chuckb on Feb 28, 2009 8:47 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
Email
PrintThe point is that there’s a lot of luck involved in a pitcher’s BABIP. If a pitcher has an inordinately high BABIP in 1 year, a lot of that can be attributed to bad luck and his ERA will suffer as a result. This is largely the reason that the saber community has developed measures such as DIPS and FIP – to measure a pitcher’s success independent of whether or not a fielder’s able to successfully field the ball.
But BABIP isn’t all luck, as Dave Cameron noted the other day over at fangraphs. We know from experience that lefthanders and flyball pitchers have some BABIP advantages – more flyballs end up as outs than ground balls do – for example. Dave also found, however, that home pitchers have a distinct BABIP advantage over road pitchers – a true home field advantage. In poring over the numbers, he found that the home field BABIP advantage was statistically significant.
(The graph is taken from Cameron's fangraphs post linked above.)
What we don’t know is why this home field advantage exists. Quoting Cameron:
| Home | Road | |
|---|---|---|
| Wainwright | .263 | .296 |
| Lohse | .264 | .347 |
| Wellemeyer | .292 | .235 |
| Pineiro | .298 | .328 |
| Franklin | .305 | .303 |
| McClellan | .265 | .354 |
| Thompson | .292 | .340 |
| Perez | .235 | .309 |
| Boggs | .366 | .275 |
| group | .281 | .310 |
| Team | .286 | .310 |
Group is how that group overall fared and team is how the entire pitching staff fared in terms of BABIP. Obviously, Boggs’, Perez’s, and probably Thompson’s numbers are affected by small sample sizes. Boggs only had 138 ABs against him last season but we see the splits were much greater for Cards’ pitchers than Cameron witnessed overall. (BTW, Wellemeyer’s BABIP was just .273 last year. That scares me b/c it will likely increase to near the league average – around .290 – which will mean a lot less success this season.)
Overall the Cards were 6 games better (46 wins to 40) at home last year and our pitchers’ ERAs were .29 runs per 9 better at home (4.06 ERA to 4.35). If Cards’ pitchers’ home BABIP had been as high as theirs on the road (.310) it would have meant that they had given up an additional 140 hits at home. Last year the Cards gave up 0.48 runs per hit so those additional 140 hits would have meant an additional 67 runs against. The home/road splits were worth more than 6 wins in the standings. How much better were we at home than on the road? 6 games. The BABIP splits were our home field advantage. (Similarly, of course, had our pitchers had the same BABIP on the road as at home, the Cards would’ve won 92-93 games and would’ve been a playoff team.)
My point isn’t that the Cards were victims of terrible luck last year nor is it that our pitchers were just terrible on the road. The point is that the BABIP home/road splits had a distinct impact on our staff our team last year and likely will this year as well. Of course, they affect all teams. Perhaps tomorrow, I’ll compare the effect that those splits had on each team in the NL. I wonder if they affect each team similarly or if they affect some more than others – and why. Hmmm…..
120 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Is it possible to factor
umpiring into the mix? I think officials in general are no different from players in that they like to hear the crowd cheer. I wonder if they are subconsciously more willing to give that borderline 3-2 pitch to the home pitcher?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
The Quest-TEC system would disagree with you
Someone profiled this a few years ago — there was no discernible advantage for home pitchers in the study over all the games in MLB in one season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Don't disagree
but I would be curious to see the article if you can find a link.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Article
Unfortunately it wasn’t something I read online, it was as study done by someone in the commissioner’s office related to how effective the QwestTEC system was in it’s second or third year of implementation.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Umpiring's not a factor...
there’s a marked difference in BABIP… balls in play! The plate umpire makes no call (’cept fair or foul) when the bat hits the ball…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Feb 28, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
Well yeah
But if the home team is batting with a smaller strike zone they’re going to have a higher BABIP……not saying that’s the case but just playin “if”.
Not afraid to nitpick
Also
If a visiting team is hitting behind in the count more often than home team is, the visitors’ average will suffer.
That said, I accept fourstick’s point that a study showed no advantage for home pitchers. Good job, umps!
by Youneverknow on Feb 28, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Either that or they equally enjoy making the crowd cheer and silencing the crowd.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I haven't read the Cameron article, but
is it possible that this is an artifact of home-team scoring? That’s a known issue when a no-hitter is looming: the home-team pitcher gets the benefit of the doubt when a bobbled ball could be called either a hit or an error.
i think umpiring would definitely have an affect on all this
but i don’t believe all the difference can be attributed to home field umpiring advantage…it stands to reason that defenses are more familiar with their ball parks than others
i’d like to see a study on how BABIP and fielding is affected when a defense remains intact for a longer period of time…like when the same core infielders and outfielders play together in the same park for 3 or 4 years…obviously teams have turnover in their roster, but it’d be interesting if part of the reason the cardinals defense was so good in the middle 2000s was due to edmonds, rolen, pujols, etc having played at Busch II for a while and knowing the stadium…and then to see if that had any effects on BABIP of those pitching staffs
basically i am saying that releasing kennedy was probably a bad idea
Kennedy started just under 50% of home games
Don’t forget that Kennedy’s stellar 2B defensive stats from 2008 were accumulated in 74 starts. He had the same number of starts in 2007 and was a league average defender. So in two years AK was the second baseman for 44.5% of the time. Doesn’t support the argument that releasing him was a bad idea as far as keeping a defense intact.
Is it possible to look at
the amount of starts each pitcher had home or away? I am looking at Wellemeyer specifically. WHy is his BABIP better on the road than at home? Over the course of say 30 starts and 18 are home and 12 are away, isn’t that going to affect his BABIP? YOur average BABIP is for 12 games away, and 18 for home.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
i know that one of his home games....
was that one we lost by like 20 to the phillies…. i remember because i sat through the entire thing.. maybe he made a couple starts in a row at home when his elbow was hurting and that could have skewed his splits a bit
Very interesting post
I know you used some data from fangraphs as a starting point, but you obviously put a lot of time into this, Chuck, in calculating the home and away BABIP for much of our staff. And promised soon is a comparison for the entire league, which I expect will take a few hours of your time to compile.
Anyway, interesting study, and I appreciate the efforting. I can certainly understand why a sabercentric blog manned by one person (read: Larry Borowsky) could have a finite lifespan. It’s a hell of a lot of work. I hope the team effort going on now is more manageable for all you gentlemen.
I wonder if you took a pitcher’s best month or six weeks, something like that, whether the split would be as pronounced. On the other hand, the number of starts over a period like that may not be balanced at all between home and away.
There's actually another explanation
And that’s that – as with all statistical conclusions – the conclusion is simply erroneous, and due to random chance, incomplete assessment, or specious correlation.
I did check the fangraphs link, and the analysis is pretty light. Sorry. He also is guilty of a fairly basic transgression in that he narrows the Y-axis down to include only the difference between the two series. If he’d run his Y-axis from 0 to .310, the differences would have seemed extremely small. Usually you see this only done by beginners, or by people trying to emphasize their point. In the latter case, you want to see a lot more analysis than simply posting the average BABIP each year before you let the researcher do this.
He’s got a great initial data mining exercise, but until he goes into some lengthy analysis, it’s just a hypothesis, not a conclusion. He hints at this when he says that he doesn’t know what causes the effect, and that isolating it will be “next to impossible.”
Just because it will be hard to do doesn’t mean the preliminary view is conclusive.
I don’t want to seem negative, but I grind my teeth a lot over transgressions (both in analysis and in conclusions) over sports analysis. I have a great memory of a stats prof in grad school coming in with some baseball site’s stuff and just ripping through it: “This is wrong. He’s incorrect here. This question can’t even be addressed with this analysis. Etc.”
by siddfynch on Feb 28, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
To be fair
It’s a cool thought, and I enjoyed seeing it applied to our pitchers (today and tomorrow)…I just want to point out that as long as it’s purely descriptive and not trying to isolate the causal factor(s), you don’t want to lose sight of the fact that it could all be erroneous….which in turn means you don’t want to be making decisions based on it. Though I suppose Mo’s stats guys will already know this.
Maybe we're playing semantics
But I think it’s ~99.99999% not erroneous. There’s a statistically significant difference between home/road splits when we’re talking 14 years of batted ball data and the relationship stays almost identical the entire time, he just way overemphasizes the practicality of a .007 difference. .007 doesn’t matter at all. If a pitcher gets even a ridiculous say 25/5 home/road starts, the difference between his “true talent” BABIP and “expected” would be like .004 and who cares between say .295 and .299—-we’re talking 2 hits over the whole year in the most extreme case possible.
Not afraid to nitpick
I don't know if this is a factor
but Busch III has only been around a few years… will this affect the batted ball data?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
2 things
1) There are usually a few ways to analyze things, and even more to present them. The choice a person makes sometimes will tell you a lot right up front about their analysis. That’s my only point regarding the compressed y-axis above. Regardless of what scale you use, the numbers themselves will be the same. It’s not semantics, either, it’s statistical literacy. Look for this axis usage next time you see a political brochure, etc.
2) Regarding “99.99999%”: There’s a way to actually put a number of this. But not with the methods used. He’s graphing exploratory data and not doing any in depth analysis. And no, a difference of .007 in something 14 times shouldn’t make you 99.99 certain of something.
You could get at this by randomly taking 50 pitchers in a given year and comparing home vs. away BABIP. You could get at it by running a paired t-test on the 14-yr data set, using the league’s mean home/away BABIP. Those won’t tell you whether what causes the relationship, either, but it will sure tell you how much confidence you should have in the difference.
How does Carp look so far?
I see Mr. Jay is off to a good start
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
Hmmmm
I can’t believe Carp is already out, Not sure if he even threw 10 pitchs
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 28, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
19 pitches
13 for strikes
0 hits 0 runs 0 bb 0 k 1 hbp 2 ip
i don’t want to get too excited… but i don’t think it could have gone much better.
If he's pain free
then it’s a perfect day.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
How does our park play?
In terms of offense relative to the rest of the league? Would be interesting to see our pitcher’s BABIP numbers re-run with the numbers neutralized for a park effect…..as an extreme, I’d expect to see the BABIPS of San Diego’s pitchers be lower at home than on the road.
Technically
I’d think San Diego’s BABIP would be higher at home not lower. The park is taking away homers not bloop fly balls and the “home run swings” that don’t end up as homers in Petco are probably way more likely than .300 to be hits.
Not afraid to nitpick
Petco and Greene
I’ve had a question about that very thing. There has been a general assumption that K. Greene’s offense will improve away from Petco. But why wouldn’t a spacious field be better for a hacker like him?
I realize that Petco is a ’pitcher’s park’… the stats show it, and anecdotal testimony supports it… but how is a hacker like KG going to benefit at Busch? He may hit a few more homeruns at Busch (but then he managed 27 dingers in ’07) but his strikeouts and pop-ups will be the same wherever.
I guess the key question is IS BABIP lower at Petco than elsewhere. And if so, is it because of the air (carriage) or what? And if not, then why the assumption that Greene will hit better at Busch?
the biggest effects on Greene
should be the reduction in K’s, as Petco increases strikeouts almost 10%. He should also have a lot more doubles at busch.The HR factors for Busch and Petco are almost identical.
Really, I think getting out of SD will have a larger psychological impact than anything.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
How does a ballpark have effects on strikeouts?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 28, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
batter's eye, mound height, humidity adding movement to fastballs, etc
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
he's also said that he won't be consciously trying to pull the ball
but he shouldn’t be trying to hit home runs all the time either (unless he hits 27 or more again)
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
is BAbip lower at petco?
08 ml BAbip avg. .300 (pitching splits, all pitchers)
08 petco BAbip avg. .284 (pitching, all)
k. greene career BAbip…..home .260…..away .298
by ball in play on Mar 1, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
good discussion on this here:
Check out the spreadsheet at the bottom of the article.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
08 SD pitching splits
.285 BAbip home, .313 BAbip away
by ball in play on Mar 1, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Franklin is dealin'
Getting two tickets to an execution is like getting two tickets to NASCAR, except you KNOW Jeff Gordon's gonna die.
It's amazing how great Jon Jay is playing
and he isn’t even the better of the two when it comes to him and DJ Tools!
My God, we’ve got OF depth. Thank goodness we had MIF’ers playing there late last year!!!!
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 28, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions
well
maybe miles’ outfield “versatility” was what convinced the cubs that he could replace derosa.
if so, it was worth it.
for those of us with no audio
is the Navy letting him buy out his service commitment, or is he doing the alternative service option?
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
Okay
I was searching that name and couldn’t figure out who the hell he was. Thanks for clearing it up. I now recognize the name.
Getting two tickets to an execution is like getting two tickets to NASCAR, except you KNOW Jeff Gordon's gonna die.
Honestly didn't hear the details
Listening at work. I heard Shannon say that Mitch Harris will be pitching for the Cardinals once his service is complete, he’s boarding a ship in a few days, Luhnow is happy, etc.
I’m sure there’ll be something up from Leach or Goold soon.
so it's the alternative service option
do two years in the military as an active duty officer, then do 6+ in the reserves to serve your commitment. Same thing that Bryce Fisher (lineman for the Rams, ‘99 USAFA grad) did. For a couple of years there they stopped letting people do it due to the GWOT, but it’s good to hear they are allowing it again.
Guess we’ll be seeing him in 2011.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
hmmm
goold is reporting that he has to serve the full 5 years before he can pitch for the cardinals. This means he’d be 27 or 28 as a fledgling minor leaguer who hasn’t ever pitched professionally. Surely that isn’t correct.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
That's a lot of IP for a reliever
Maybe they’re stretching him out to be a starter as insurance. If so, I have no problem with them. We have enough bullpen depth now that he can move out of that set up role.
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
he could be the long reliever
opening up spots for perez, motte, kinney, and mcclellan to go along with the two lefties.
Yup.
they talked about it before ST. Franklin pitches in St like a starting pitcher because his “arsenal” is more like that of a starting pitcher. Most relievers have like two pitches they throw while he has like 5 since he used to be a starter.
Really, it’s no big deal. He’s just working on all of his pitches.
Getting two tickets to an execution is like getting two tickets to NASCAR, except you KNOW Jeff Gordon's gonna die.
Or maybe Carp has been looking good
And that plan has been abandoned. Still a lot of game left though.
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
They abandoned that plan....
In all of 2 innings?
I think if they were to get KMac in there, it would be b4 all the Nat’s B-team Hitters get it.
They've been watching him throw for a week or two now
Might have made the call based on his throwing sessions. Duncan’s been pretty giddy in the press about him.
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Does carp throwing well surprise anyone?
I wouldn’t say he’s cured of all health issues just yet.
I think having someone groomed to be a 6th starter in case anyone goes down is a decent plan in general.
You'll get no argument for me
Just theorizing here.
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
so Franklin was the starter today?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
ah
should have read a little further down the thread
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
now shannon says thurston is at second
that makes more sense. i thought it was weird that he would be playing first base.
At least Pujols is still in the game
I about had a heart attack when Rooney said he was hit on the wrist.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Gameday must be boned
Albert just drew another walk according to Shannon and Rooney.
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Back to back "almost" home runs from Duncan
Though luck
by cloistermaximus on Feb 28, 2009 3:05 PM EST reply actions
i love that there were maybe half a dozen people calling for his head after one GIDP in his first game
and there’s crickets sounding when he gets robbed on a HR.
I like Dunc. Always have. Nice to see him healthy I just wish we used a DH.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
It sure is great to hear Shannon and Rooney!!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I would like to definitively know
if Shannon still drinks. I’ve heard that after he had that TB or whatever it was a few years ago, he had to quit the sauce. But I wonder.
I’m all but positive — in the old days with Jack Buck — he was often beered up.
Nationals are doing pretty good today
only 4 errors
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:30 PM EST reply actions
interesting post Chuckb
I think the graph shows that players just get used to their home ballpark, and our more comfortable playing there. they know the quirks better than other teams do, and I think the atmosphere and environment are part of something like muscle memory, where it just gets ingrained in the player’s psyche. or I could be just talking out my arse.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions
holy crap
that’s just ridiculous… awesome!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
it's pretty bad
that even in spring training they still walk Pujols 2/3 of the time. has he made an out this spring?
I was just noticing that
dude has walked over half the time so far in first 3 games. I wonder what his stats would be like if he didn’t walk/get pitched around so much?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
150+ BB this year for AP
Hope Roy Hobbs is the answer at cleanup. He’s going to have a lot of RBI chances.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
only one that i've seen
pop fly yesterday. so if that’s the case then that’s pretty damn good.
by cardsfansouth on Feb 28, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
– 1
you would be bigger than the universe?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 28, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Well, they could just give him all their money
Until the end of time.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 28, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Unfortunately
“All their Money” is worth about 60% less than it was at this time last year….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Infinity = Pound of Flesh
Without that moral hazard of course — it’s going to be very difficult to quantify that amount in a payable amount :-)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Good post Chuck
The thing about BABIP, is that it is just another stat. Most players put up better numbers at home for whatever reason, so the same is true for BABIP. It is probably a combination of the pitchers inducing lower quality of batted balls (that can be tracked with TRA), fielders knowing the home park better (is there UZR home/road splits available anywhere?) and the road team performing worse due to unfamiliarity/travel/jeering fans.
vivaelbeñsheets
it's gotta be a combination of a bunch of different factors
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 1, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
what does that mean?
stop answering questions with questions.
we aren’t going to figure this out unless we figure out the day and night splits for every pitcher.
home and away.
cold weather v warm weather.
molina v larue
mulder was great at home at night.
pinerio was great against teams from boston
carpenter was good in the daytime
marquis was ok
looper love day games.
mcclellan kicks ass when his parents are at the game.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Please hold: Indians’ Joe Smith jumps the gun on relief appearance
- Local radio host honors Cubs’ Tony Campana with parody song
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
