FanPost

Projected Lineups

This is my first foray into a FanPost as well as my first go around with html tables (with help from a friend). So without further ado I wanted to expand upon CardsWins' FanPost on the projected roster here. I think he is spot on with the roster, including Rasmus not making the team out of spring training. I just don't see where he fits without an injury or a trade.

What is interesting is that we have some very advantageous R/L split platoons that we can trot out there depending on the throwing hand of the pitcher. For my lineups I used last years info for all players who played in the majors simply b/c I could sort the hitters by L/R splits. To my knowledge there aren't any L/R split projections. For any minor league players I used their 2009 ZIPS projections here.

The nice thing about the projections is that I only use Freese and Wallace in their more advantageous split, lending to their numbers hopefully being better than the projections. Feel free to debate my lineup order but the basic idea was OBP and speed in the 1 hole, OBP and power in the 2 hole (a Tony favorite), Pujols, Ludwick, OBP/SLG, OBP/SLG, OBP/SLG, pitcher, Greene (trying to hide him?). Wash, rinse, repeat.

I didn't give much preference to alternating L/R due to the fact that each lineup is heavily stacked from a certain side of the plate. Also Mather doesn't start in either of my scenarios, I felt here were better options depending on what I was going for in the lineup. Lineup analysis is from Baseball Musings tool. So here is the RHP lineup:

UPDATE: I replaced all values with 3 year averages from ESPN where I could (Freese, Mather, Wallace all use projections still). Thanks vivaelpujols for the tip. This caused a few of my lineups to switch order. In the second list, against LHP I moved Molina from 2 to 7 and Ryan from 7 to 2. Also, I bumped Glaus up to 4 from 5 and Ludwick back from 4 to 5. Sorry for any confusion in the reply posts below. I don't think Greene will live up to these numbers but it sure would be great.

Projected Lineup vs. RHP
Name At Bats OBA Slugging
Skip Schumaker 619 .374 .457
Chris Duncan 716 .377 .525
Albert Pujols 1179 .422 .617
Ryan Ludwick 542 .378 .581
Rick Ankiel 423 .344 .504
Troy Glaus 1095 .353 .462
Yadier Molina 853 .304 .345
Pitcher 200 .156 .174
Kahlil Greene 1058 .279 .424
TOTALS RUNS SCORED/GAME 5.498
Sub Wallace 5.424
For starters I subbed Wallace in directly for Glaus, his projections are close-ish (.333 and .424) and it appears he has some pretty severe R/L split tendencies. How do those OBP look in front of Pujols? Now for the LHP lineup:

Projected Lineup vs. LHP
Name At Bats OBA Slugging
Brian Barton 89 .374 .371
Brendan Ryan 171 .364 .368
Albert Pujols 445 .487 .661
Troy Glaus 374 .397 .578
Ryan Ludwick 299 .334 .495
Rick Ankiel 162 .306 .543
Yadier Molina 361 .357 .399
Pitcher 100 .166 .178
Kahlil Greene 1058 .326 .410
TOTALS RUNS SCORED/GAME 5.573
Sub Freese 5.236
Again, sub Freese (.321 and .428) for Glaus, but this time switch Freese with Ludwick in the lineup. And look at the OBP! I envision Barton and Ryan creating some havoc when they reach the bases.

So this is just my take on the lineup but that offense is pretty stout. Duncan may get better, Ludwick may get worse, Greene may get better, anyway you look at it the offense appears to be live and well. The pitchers on the other hand, aside from Wainwright, can't hit worth a lick. The numbers used in the chart are a pretty fair representation based off of last years numbers. The nice part is later in the game we get some pretty good bats off the bench. What say you VEBers? How would you change the lineups?
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