Behind the plate -- Yadi's RAA

For whatever reason, he threw out a ton this year which he couldn’t do the year before or the year before. Maybe more guys took chances which shouldn’t have? I think that coupled with getting better somehow in throwing out runners skyrocketed his numbers last year and I’d expect to see him fall back into the pack this year since teams will be more cautious against him.

but not today. First I’ll work on getting the average right for the majors in ‘08. Then I’ll do it for the other years and see. I’ve seen Yadi’s numbers though and I can tell you that last year was his worst defensively. There’s a good chance he was the best in the NL, and possibly the majors, every other year.

Have you been here before?

thought about this as I was doing it. I noticed the fact that Yadi had so few attempts against and my conclusion was that it would affect the number of runs b/c there were fewer stolen bases w/ fewer attempts. But I think you’re right — there’s a residual impact — more DP’s, more runners stranded at 3rd on singles and doubles, forces at 2nd that otherwise would be outs at first w/ the runner moving up a base, etc. I’m not sure how to quantify that but I’m going to go back and review this and make some adjustments to the average runs yielded based on all catchers (rather than just those who played in the most games) so I can try and figure that out as well. Thanks for dropping by and for the valuable insight.

The value the offense gained by getting their runners to second and out of GIDP situations is contained in the value of the SB. Keeping a runner on first doesn’t decrease their likelihood of scoring, because the likelihood of scoring is already built in to the run-expectancy chart. That’s poorly written, sorry.

I CAN see a value in that the defense doesn’t have to worry as much about hit and runs, the SS/2B don’t have to cheat towards second to cover steal attempts, and the pitcher can spend a little less time worrying about runners on first.

Per wikipedia:

A runner who is picked off, when that runner’s sole action after leading off is diving back to the base, only to be put out, is not caught stealing. If during the play the runner made any feint or motion to the next base, then the runner is caught stealing, even if eventually put out on the dive back.

forgot to hit the reply button

Why do National League teams keep signing designated hitters?

(I’m thinking of Milton Bradley as the other).

I’d have to run the numbers to see for sure. I just took for granted that they’re probably not as good since they’re the backups. Even if there are a few who are better than the starters, I would think that the rest would bring down the average (or bring it up as the case may be). But it was entirely an assumption that may turn out to be completely false. You’re right.

I think the pitching staff and the coaching staff deserve a lot of credit here as well. Stolen base defense has always been a point of emphasis for this regime. I know some would minimize the impact of the pitchers, but the pitcher has to keep them close and be quick to the plate.

because it has a lot to do with “eyes.” I’m all about eyes as well
With that said…a question and a comment:
Q: how did your eyes rate Mike Matheny? MY eyes said — excellent, better than Yadi.
C: I seem to be the only one who wishes that Yadi would quit BOUNCING around behind the plate. Not in blocking balls in the dirt, or whatever; I concede he is pretty good at THAT kind of movement. But as I watch on TV he annoys me often because he doesn’t seem set enough to give the pitcher a stable target AS the pitcher is just about to or already is in his throwing motion. I wanna yell at him, “SIT STILL.” Does no one else notice (or is bothered) by this ?

our eyes lie to us all the time. Perhaps yours don’t, but everyone else’s do. This is why eyewitness recollections are so often inaccurate in criminal cases. It’s why many of us thought that Ankiel was a pretty good defensive player last year when every available metric tells us otherwise. Moreover, I don’t know how much Jason Kendall you saw last year, but you didn’t see every play behind the plate and you certainly didn’t see every play by every catcher in baseball last year, as the numbers do.

Second, whether or not Kendall’s numbers are worse this year is wholly irrelevant. Nothing I reported on here was meant to be predictive and I never even hinted that it might be. It’s a measure of what happened, not what will happen.

Third, Kendall played 30 more games than Yadi behind the plate (as the table above clearly demonstrates) and the difference in innings was Kendall — 1328 to Molina — 1002. The difference — 326 innings — more than 36 9-inning games.

Most importantly, however, is the fact that you provide no justification whatsoever for saying that Kendall wasn’t better than Yadi last year. He threw out more runners. He threw out a higher percentage of base runners. He was more adept at blocking balls than Yadi. His pitchers had a lower ERA than Yadi’s did (irrelevant, but I thought you might like it anyway). Kendally had 6 errors to Yadi’s 9 despite playing in 30 more games and 326 more innings than Molina. In what way was Molina superior to Kendall defensively? You seem to base you assertion on Kendall’s reputation and the suspicion that Kendall will be worse THIS YEAR.

Which numbers here are deceiving? It’s true that more runners tried to steal on Kendall. That makes him worse defensively? He threw out 39.6% of base runners compared to Yadi’s 30.2%. Kendall’s ability to throw runners out last year was worth more than half a win to the Brewers — and more than half a win more than Yadi’s was. Even if you assume some residual impact of Yadi’s reputation — that many wouldn’t attempt to steal b/c of his reputation — it’s not worth anywhere close to half a win. If your eyes tell you it is, they’re deceiving you. And even if they aren’t, Kendall was still better in every other aspect behind the plate.

So, the bottom line — Kendall was better throwing out runners. He was better at preventing wild pitches and passed balls. He was better fielding and throwing balls and his pitchers had lower ERAs than Yadi’s. In what way was Yadi superior? In what way was any other catcher superior to Kendall? In what way was Kendall lacking defensively? You say that “there’s no question that Jason Kendall was not the best defensive catcher” last year. On what basis are you so certain? All these numbers tell you otherwise yet, since they contradict something your eyes saw, you’re willing to discard them. Why? There absolutely is a question, since — your words — so many others back up my analysis. I’d love to hear what you saw that makes all these numbers worthless.

I think that the only flaw in this analysis (save the one I’ve already acknowledged) is that it didn’t fit your preconceived notion as to who the best defensive catchers were. Please don’t take this as an attack on the poster, but there’s an inherent flaw w/ any argument that says that a numerical analysis is flawed simply b/c it conflicted w/ something your eyes saw last year.

that’s one of the greatest things about being a cardinals fan. That pujols/molina dynamic is just amazing.

I was at the game in SD a couple of years back (2006?) that ended on a brian giles-pickoff from first, and it is in the top ten of cardinals baseball game memories for me. Right up there with that curve ball to beltran and the home run off lidge.