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Spring Surprises Part 2: The Surprisening

Spring is in the air, both in the literal sense of warmer days and rain showers, and in the constant cycle of baseball updates from Florida coming our way. The hope and optimism is nearly off the charts; Chris Carpenter is going to make 35 Cy Young-quality starts, some latin kid reliever with a golden arm is topping out at 120 mph, and Ryan Ludwick is going to hit 50 homers. By the end of April.

With pitchers and catchers already in camp, it suddenly occured to me the other day that I had neglected to bring back one of my favourite ideas from last spring: the Spring Surprise contest.

I'm sure you all remember how this works, right? I want to know who you think will come out this spring in a big way. Not necessarily a sleeper, or a guy who makes the roster, or anything specific. I just want the 'buzz' guy (or guys), for spring training 2009. That guy who, at the end of camp, we're all going to be aware of, or excited about, in a way we weren't before.

I want one, count 'em, one pitcher, and one (1), position player. Major leaguers, minor leaguers, indy leaguers, beer leaguers, justice leaguers, all are fair game. However, I do insist that you have some sort of actual reasoning behind your choice. That's right, you have to think about these. I know, I know, it sucks. However, them's the rules, pardners.

The one and only other rule for this is that I want you to give me good surprises, not bad surprises. There will be plenty of time later on to lament the negatives, once they happen. For now, we're going to keep this firmly in the realm of optimism.

And so, without very much further ado, I present to you my choices.

For pitcher, I'm actually going to admit to hedging my bets a bit here. I had originally considered two pitchers in particular: Adam Reifer (of whom I have long been a fan), and the Velocitous Venezuelan, Francisco Samuel. In truth, I was leaning toward Reifer, as he may be my favourite relief prospect in the system now that Perez is no longer, strictly speaking, a prospect. Samuel, on the other hand, I like because his stuff is, if it's actually possible, even more electric than that of Reifer, with a high-90s fastball and a slider that tops out right around 90, while still showing remarkable movement. I wanted to throw in a starter's name as well, but in the end, I just don't think any of the starters are going to be that guy. Also, just as a basic philosophy, it seems like relievers are more likely to be the talk of camp; see also McClellan, Kyle, and Dove, Dennis.

As I said, I was leaning toward Reifer initially. However, two things changed my mind: one, the fact that Samuel pitched at High A ball last season, while Reifer pitched at short season Batavia. Reifer is probably just a little too far away from the big leagues to generate significant buzz. Samuel, slated to begin the year at Double A, is at a good level to make an impression. The second reason is a little less honest. See, Samuel is already garnering some attention, both from the coaching staff and certain members of the media covering the team. John Marecek has a great piece of video on Samuel, as well as a nice little blog in general. Samuel has basically no idea where the ball is going when he lets go of it, as evidenced by a ghastly walk rate of 19% last year at Palm Beach, but he's overpowering enough that even just a modicum of control could make him virtually unhittable. Maybe it's dishonest to choose a guy already getting a little ink, but I have to tell you, I'm okay with that.

As for my position player, I was initially going to go with a player I think is one of the most underrated in the entire system, Jon Edwards. Edwards is an outfielder, taken in the 14th round of the 2006 draft out of high school. Just now 21, Edwards put up excellent numbers at Batavia last season, then ended the year with a very solid, if unspectacular, performance at Quad Cities. I understand he's still a long ways off from the majors, but a guy with the kind of power and patience he's shown at the plate should get more attention, in my ever so humble opinion. Oh, did I also mention he's hit 97 mph off the mound?

But then I realised, I was about to fall into the same trap in this game that I succumbed to last year. I chose Travis Mitchell, a toolsy kid also out of the '06 draft last year, only to realise too late that he isn't anywhere near close enough to the majors to garner any real attention. Maybe as a minor league sleeper, or a breakout candidate, Edwards makes all the sense in the world. But to generate real spring training buzz? Not so much.

So, my pick for the position player surprise is (drumroll please), Khalil Greene! I've long been a fan of Greene, ever since his monster 2004 season, only to watch him become less and less disciplined as the years have gone by. Now, there isn't really much in his numbers to suggest that he's going to suddenly turn back into the player that he was, but I think that Petco Park got into Khalil's head in a big way. He has seemed to fall into the trap that so many hitters do in that graveyard, that of frustration over seeing home run after home run die in the expanse of the Petco outfield. I think that coming over to a park that isn't quite so extreme, and just plain getting out of what has to be an ugly culture out with that Padres' ballclub, could give Greene a nice little boost. At the very least, he won't be counted on quite so heavily to produce with the bat; maybe he'll be able to relax a bit and find some remnant of that early-career form that once made him so promising.

In the end, I still expect Greene to strike out much more often than most of us would like to see, but I also think that just that positive feeling, of a new start with a team moving in a good direction, coupled with a new coaching staff to maybe give him a different perspective, is going to give Greene a lot of momentum coming into spring training games. I think by the end of March, we're all going to be trumpeting Mo as some sort of genius for spinning our malcontent sidearmer to the Padres for the next coming of Cal Ripken. Of course, I also expect for Khalil to piss us all off at various times this year, to the point that, during some particularly bad stretch of whiffing, a fanpost will show up with a title along the lines of, "Why We Should Have Kept Cesar Izturis."

So those are my picks, chosen with logic, deductive reasoning, and plain old pulling things out of my ass. What do you guys think?

Oh, and also, there will be prizes for the person who wins this year, possibly of the real variety. (And by real, I mean imaginary.)

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Wow, I've never been first...

Anyway, without quite as much analysis, here’s my two:

Pitcher – Jess Todd
Why Todd? Probably because I like rooting for former Razorbacks. But more to the point, maybe he shouldn’t be considered a sleeper. He has gotten quite a bit of ink already. However, the glowing reviews, etc. are always tempered by the question of starter/reliever and can he sustain his success at higher levels. Well, I just have this feeling (or maybe I just WANT to feel) that Todd will surprise many who think he could never be a ML starter with his showing this spring. Now I’m not saying he’s going to make the opening day rotation or even the team. I doubt either will happen. But I think he may impress enough to be a serious consideration for the 2010 rotation.

Position player – David Freese
This one was a bit tougher for me, but I just have this feeling that Freese is going to take advantage of the opportunity afforded him by Glaus’ surgery and be the opening day 3B and year-long backup at 3B and, possibly, SS.

Ok, there they are. I hope there’s at least some evidence to support these hunches come April.

by ArkansasTravs on Feb 18, 2009 11:11 AM EST reply actions  

My take is...

Jess Todd as pitcher
Tyler Greene as position player

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Feb 18, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions  

my two votes

Pitcher- I’d like to take a high risk/high reward bet on Josh Kinney. In his VERY limited stints with the team, he has done nothing but impress me. I don’t really like him in this whole closer competition (I think we should just commit to Perez already). But, I think he has the tools to be a dominant setup man and (if healthy all year), I could see him putting up somthing like 65 innings, low 3 ERA..very valuable for what he’ll be paid. I think he comes to ST with a determination to prove that he belongs in this role.

Position Player- I’m going to catch flak from everyone and pick Chris Duncan. Assuming we can take him at his word that he is 100% recovered, I think he also comes to camp with something to prove and hits a bomb every other game.

Go Cardinals!

by Cardsray on Feb 18, 2009 11:17 AM EST reply actions  

It would be nice

if the answer was CDuncan – if for no other reason than to increase his trade value.

by Toddius on Feb 18, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

+1 For C. Duncan

and I love the Fernando Salas pick below.

Honi soit qui mal y pense.

by palampe on Feb 18, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

kinney

It would be nice to see him healthy all year. If he can put up mumbers like betancourt for the Indians then he will get some buzz.

by hghallstar on Feb 18, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

BAM!

Pitcher – Fernando Salas (now pleeeaaase don’t go off and be the PTBNL).
¿Por qué? Porque I like his 100 SO’s in 74 innings last year in AA. He does give up the long ball a little too much, but I just have a get a good vibe from him. I think he’ll make a big leap this year in the system’s prospect rankings.

Position Player – Allen Craig
This guys tends to get lost in the weeds w/ all of the talk around Wallace and Freese. He can be a streaky hitter at times, but he’s got great power and can play 3B and the OF. He’s the kinda guy Tony can go ape shit over.

Were you surprised!? Were you shocked and awed!? Yeah, didn’t think so….

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Feb 18, 2009 11:20 AM EST reply actions  

Oops...

“but I just have a get a good vibe from him”

I just get a good vibe from him.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Feb 18, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Spring Surprise

Motte and Skippy Schu Schu will have huge years. My reasoning is thus:

Motte is still learning the fundamentals of pitching and will add an underhand drop ball to his arsenal that cause the creation of a new MLB rule allowing the pitcher to rack up two strikes on a single pitch: the first on the inordinately quick swing and miss induced by Motte’s drop ball causing the swinger to overcompensate due to him anticipating the 105 mph heater followed by the sad and pathetic “second swing” which would resemble a typical Randy Johnson hack and would look remarkable like my swing while playing Wii baseball left-handed against my wife which I employ to even the odds of competition.

Skip will break free from his previous desire to fit in with the power-hitting outfielders around and stop swinging for fences. Instead he will focus on getting on base and slashing doubles to all fields. He will conservatively bat around .450 while accumulating 68 doubles to break Earl Webb’s all-time doubles record (all in spring training).

by Mcgeesabeast on Feb 18, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

Surprises

Perez shows he can be a dominant closer.

Wallace outperforms all 3B and makes the opening day roster, a la Pujols in 2001.

A kid can dream, can’t he?

The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs

by jd is legend on Feb 18, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

Just a guess

For pitcher: Im going to take PJ Walters. Before last season, I was really hoping that he would break out last season, but maybe this is the year. I know that he might just be a back of the rotation guy, but I would love to hear some good things about him.

For player: Im going to take Brendan Ryan. I think that he has a real chance to be at least a league average offensively at 2nd and maybe even above defensively. I have nothing really to back it up rather than a gut feeling. I guess more than anything, I figure we will hear about his “hustle”.

by JBagKY on Feb 18, 2009 11:33 AM EST reply actions  

Pineiro vs Oquendo

Oquendo doesn’t want Pineiro to start for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic…

Pineiro is pissed. Refuses to pitch out of the bullpen, has pulled out of the WBC. "I was very disappointed, very heartbroken. I felt disrespected."

article

So Tony and Dave don’t want Pineiro to pitch in the WBC, so they ask Oquendo not to put him in the rotation, knowing it will be a blow to his ego. I guess pitchers and third base coaches don’t really need to interact much, so hopefully this won’t be a problem for long.

My picks:
Jess Todd, who will be on fire this spring and take the fifth starter spot from Joel, prompting to Joel to break his pitching hand while punching a wall. He will miss the whole season, and the Cardinals will file a grievance and recover his full salary for 2009.

Brian Barton will go apeshit this spring, only to realize he will spend most of the year in Memphis so Chris Duncan has a spot on St. Louis’ roster, regardless of his performance. Barton will sneak in to Dipcan’s hotel room in Jupiter, leaving a replica World Series trophy at the foot of his bed – which has been infected with some kind of NASA drugs we don’t know anything about. Skoaletor will awaken to the glorious sight of the sexy trophy and will… well, you know. He will never recover from the astronautic tonic, clearing a spot on the 25 man for the dreadlocked dispatcher of doubles (and triples).

by adiueordie on Feb 18, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions  

Does it bother anyone else when Puerto Rico is treated as if it were it’s own country or am I missing out on some little know geography fact?

I am not by any stretch of the imagination a Pineiro fan but I understand where he’s coming from especially if inferior pitchers wind up in the rotation. This all has the same underhanded TLR feel to it . . .

by azruavatar on Feb 18, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

here's the video

link

Joel “feels bad for his country, Puerto Rico.”

by adiueordie on Feb 18, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

"underhanded feel"?!

Is that any way for a graduate student in engineering to talk?! : ) Do you have any quantifiable data to back up that intuition? Have you considered the statistically verifiable fact that three starting pitchers on the PR team had better performance last year than Pineiro? In other words, Pineiro didn’t make the cut. Straightforward and simple. By what logic do you infer that Pineiro’s not being selected as a starter for PR was “underhanded”? Let’s hope your graduate school adviser doesn’t see that comment…. : )

by CardsWin on Feb 18, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Been too busy with timely opportunities and pressing problems in the "real" world...

…to play as much as I’d like in the surreal world of MLB, Cardinal Nation, and VEB. But spring fever is taking hold, and I’m finding more time to enjoy the appealingly nerdy analyses of fellow Cardinal fans, and the other “serious fun” that makes VEB so popular. (That’s NERD as in “not even remotely dorky”….)

by CardsWin on Feb 18, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

the real world, and those that chose to live there, are highly overrated

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

ManRam

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Feb 19, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I thought I read that Snell, J. Sanchez and Vasquez were starting ahead of him?

And yeah, I think it’s a little weird as well that Puerto Rico is its own country. Maybe a Texas team and a Scotland team next time? Or an EU conglomerate team? Separate team for Israel and Palestine? (Oh crap I just opened an ugly can of worms, didn’t I…) Taiwan has a team, right? I know they’re definitely a real country and all, but lately it seems like the international attitude is to sort of forget that they’re there. Olympic flags and all that…
Anyway. I’m actually looking forward to the World Baseball classic, and It has little to do with which major leaguers take part (in fact it’s probably prudent of them not to…) I just like seeing other nations taking interest in baseball.

by mattybobo on Feb 18, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

They should let anyone compete

open it up to the long beach semi-pro teams, etc. Make the first 3-4 rounds single elimination and give countries a bye until the 3rd or 4th round if you want, I guess.

I’d love to see a bad-news bears kind of story in which a bunch of high school buddies claw their way into the semi’s, beating up on some MLB teams in the process.

"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo

by SleepyCA on Feb 18, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Puerto Rico is in the middle ground

They are an American territory, but not a state. They’ve had the chance to become a state on numerous occasions, but they’re too proud (or something like that). But you’re right, it’s definitely not its own country.

The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs

by jd is legend on Feb 18, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Just because I am totally ignorant...

how is their government ran? What kind of federal support do they get from the US?

Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"

...and then it hits me!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 18, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

They are a considered a commonwealth of the US.

All Puerto Ricans are considered US citizens, but cannot vote at the federal level if residing in Puerto Rico. They do however have their own constitution and local government, consisting of judicial, executive and legislative branches, as well as their own governor, supreme court, senate and house of representatives.

by adiueordie on Feb 18, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

less to do with pride

and more to do with federal income tax, i suspect.

"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo

by SleepyCA on Feb 18, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I would feel bad for Pineiro if, you know, he were good at pitching.

But Snell, Sanchez and Vasquez are all defensible picks, IMO. All are at least comparable. I guess I don’t like how Pineiro feels slighted, as if he were obviously better than the bums selected ahead of him. Instead of responding with, “well, obviously I wanted to play and help my U.S. territory win, but the guys selected ahead of me are good pitchers too, and I’m sure they’ll do well,” Pineiro responded by saying he felt “disrespected.”

One way to gain (or regain) respect: pitch better.

by Ray Lankford on Feb 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Amen

Earth to Pineiro: Vazquez > Sanchez > Snell > Pineiro. So, guess who loses out in a 3-man rotation? Now, if you’d like to do something about it, go ahead and pitch better. Really, be our guest.

Doofus.

by siddfynch on Feb 18, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not a country in the geopolitical sense

but you could argue it’s a nation (which properly defined is a group of people, not necessarily a geopolitical entity). This is kind of like Scotland and England have their own soccer team.

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.

by Gregatron on Feb 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

That, in it's simplicity, makes pretty good sense.

Meeting is adjourned. Oh I am sorry sir, I didn't mean to overstep my bounds. You say that.

What?

Meeting is adjourned.

It is?

No, you say that, Governor.

What?

Meeting is adjourned.

It is?

by Tackle Box on Feb 18, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't get it either.

The Puerto Rico thing.

Meeting is adjourned. Oh I am sorry sir, I didn't mean to overstep my bounds. You say that.

What?

Meeting is adjourned.

It is?

No, you say that, Governor.

What?

Meeting is adjourned.

It is?

by Tackle Box on Feb 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

and...

…puerto rico is getting several billion from obama’s stimulus package. including, i heard, but am too busy reading this blog to read anything else, they are getting 15 millionn to build a new baseball stadium.

by sbentley on Feb 19, 2009 12:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Only time will tell...

Pitcher- Joel Piniero

I know this guy is least favorite among the fans, but he really has a lot to prove this year.

1.) Another year with Dave Duncan never hurts unless your name is Anthony Reyes.

2.) He is pitching in a contract year.

3.) He says he is in better shape than last year at this time.

4.) Boggs and Todd are on his tail.

Joel is in a situation where he must produce. If not he will lose his spot and pay check for next year. Im not saying he will be the ace of our staff, but I think he will be a reliable back-end type pitcher this year. he has a lot to prove and hopefully he will earn his 7.5 million.

Batter- Chris Duncan

I think he will create a lot of buzz this spring b/c like piniero, he has a lot to prove. With him being heathy, he provides the bat we need to hit behind El hombre. If he can bounce back and start mashing again it will help this team in a lot of ways. Besides Mather, the cards dont have an enforcer of the bench. His HR ability off the bench is a much needed asset this team needs IMO.

by hghallstar on Feb 18, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions  

I like those picks

Both would be big pieces to a nice run if they perform as they ought to.

by liam on Feb 18, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I can see Piniero getting off to a decent start in 09(like Matt Morris in 05 or Piniero in 08), and have

his ERA around 3.30 at the End of May. But then he’ll wear down and start getting crushed and his ERA will be near 5.00 by the end of July.

by Czechguardsman on Feb 18, 2009 5:41 PM EST up reply actions  

hsn't Piniero had a lot to prove

since 2003? I would love for Piniero to be the surprise of the spring, but given his 5 year run of sucktivity, I just can’t see it happening.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

and....BEN SHEETS!!! **

**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)

by mattyfrommo on Feb 18, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

My Picks.

Pitcher – Obviously Chris Carpenter. This is kind of a ’duh pick in my opinion. No matter how good or bad he pitches, he will generate gobs of buzz. I personally think he will be great at least through the spring.

Batter – I think it will be David Freese. He has tons to gain here this spring. Potentially a starting gig (for a while) with his hometown big league club. I think he is going to work his butt off and prove that he can be a respectable major leaguer.

Justice-Leaguer – Solomon Grundy. This dude, while he plays for the evil empire, will finally show the plate discipline that he needs to balance out that tremendous power. The problem here is that we will probably have to trade him, as he is to slow for the outfield, and El Hombre is entrenched at 1b.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Feb 18, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions  

Justice Leaguer

Amaury Marti…….What, you didn’t know he was a member? His power could never be contained to just baseball.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Feb 18, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Freese was born

in Corpus Christi… how does that make St. Louis his “hometown” team ?

by the Tewk on Feb 18, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

It doesn't matter where you were born,

If you went to high school in Saint Louis, you are from Saint Louis.

I’ve lived here for five years now and still don’t rate that status. I just live here.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Feb 18, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions  

them and their damn clicks

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

ManRam

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Feb 19, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

This is a great game.. And I'm gonna win

Pitcher: Ian Ostlund

The extreme dark horse quietly wins over the catchers’ and Dave Duncan’s hearts. I expect Ring and Manning to pitch competently, but Ostlund’s stinginess with the base on balls during Spring wins him the second lefty spot.

Non-Pitcher: Joe Thurston

There are a ton of good candidates here: Freese, Greene, Schumaker (as a 2B), Barden, Ryan… I expect a platoon at 2B of two players who can field other positions: the right-side of it comes from the better of Brendan Ryan and Brian Barden; the left side from Skip and Thurston. Mighty Joe hit .351/.415/.459 last Spring but wasn’t about to take Pedroia’s job away. Admittedly, he hit like crap in Spring 2007 and not great in Spring 2006. If he’s productive with the bat like he was last season, he’ll generate some excitement and let the Skip to 2B project simmer along at a more reasonable pace.

Hard to pick the position player with so much talent gunning for too few positions.

by liam on Feb 18, 2009 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

More wishful thinking than projection

I would love it if Mitchell Boggs showed up with an improved breaking ball and a serious changeup. Lord knows we need him, or someone, to be ready to take some starts.

Not sexy, but it would be a very pleasant surprise if Brendan Ryan actually showed the ability to be a consistent big-league hitter. I think he has as good a chance as any of the RH middle infield options – isn’t that a scary thought?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Feb 18, 2009 12:14 PM EST reply actions  

Ostlund and Freese

I can envision Ian Ostlund emerging as the top lefthanded reliever, ahead of Trever Miller. Ostlund’s K/BB ratio in AAA last year was 77/17.

Freese is an excellent defender and he has shown in the last two years in the minors that he can get on base and hit for power. The upside possibility is that he may make Glaus expendable by the July trading deadline, allowing the Cards to add strength in a trade, for the last half of this season and beyond.

by CardsWin on Feb 18, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

My Picks

Pitcher – Ottavino He has no where to go but up, and a lot of people have already written him off.

Position Player – I really wanted to put Ludwick here because a lot of people see a major drop off comming for him, or at least a significant regression but I feel he will perform up to or surpass last year. My pick has to be Ryde Rodriguez for the surprise here because he put up an All-Star season up with a pretty bad Batavia team. Look for him to reach at least AA this year.

by stlzoot on Feb 18, 2009 12:27 PM EST reply actions  

I suck at this sort of thing...

I swear to Gosh, before I read the Baron’s choices my first thought was “well, maybe someone like Samuel for a pitcher? I’ve heard he throws it mighty hard and nasty or something.” Then I realized that the only reason I knew anything about Samuel was the recent buzz that has been mentioned. Ah well, I’ll stick with him because I’m far from a prospect know-it-all. Without this site and Future Redbirds I’d be quite ignorant…
As for a position player I’ll take a total guess and say Chris Duncan will hit very well and make for further outfield question marks. Although a friend of mine who follows prospects much more closely than I do (a few years ago he mentioned some guy named Cody Haerther in conversation, and I was all like “Who?” Come a long way since then) recently told me is a true believer in Skip to 2B. Should be a fun Spring.

by mattybobo on Feb 18, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions  

I'll give this a shot

Pitcher: Chris Carpenter. This contingent, obviously on him being 100% healthy, and dominating during ST, with no sign of arm discomfort of any kind. If he shows to be the Christ Carpenter of old we come out of ST with our eyes on the Cubs for the division (which might be a touch optimistic, but we are fans dammit!).

Non-pitcher: Brian Barton. He demonstrates his ability to get on base with a >.400 OBA (obviously small sample size over performance, but still impressive), and attempting to impress the powers that be, takes it upon himself to steal a lot of bases while rarely getting caught. This complicates our outfield glut, but I think it could be good too, as a regular outfield of Ludwick, Rasmus, and an Ankiel/Barton platoon would be nice. (This might also be contingent on Skip working out at second.)

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.

by Gregatron on Feb 18, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah I noticed that after I hit "post"

I even proofread it. I think it was Freudian!

But if he performs like that I will call him “Christ Carpenter.”

(Jesus was a carpenter after all.)

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.

by Gregatron on Feb 18, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

...

I’m going with Brenden Ryan for my non-pitching choice. I’m saw a guy who has learned a lot in the past two years learning how to deal with Tony and being an every day player… and now with Khalil at short he’ll be able to settle on one position and concentrate on hitting… if he could keep his avg somewhere close to .280-.300 at 2nd – he’d be a killer 9 hole with a bit speed in the lineup.

Then for my pitcher I’d love to see Perez become our everyday closer… I love highspeeds… He got a taste last year and I think he’ll bring the heat this year along with a little control… I think Dave can formulate him into something special…

It's not what you do, It's who you do...

by pattimagee on Feb 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

Kinney and Barden

I chose Kinney because if he truly is healthy and builds on the numbers from last year — very small sample, I know — then that’s huge. I’d love to be able to trust him in the 8th inning instead of Franklin.

I don’t expect it to happen, but if Barden can show some semblance of a decent stick, then we have at worst a solid utility infielder. And we know how TLR loves those guys.

"A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann

by Futility Infielder on Feb 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

My picks

Position Player – Jarrett Hoffpauir, with the release of AK, I believe this is an opportunity to make the jump into that slot. His career minor league numbers are respectable even though he has little power(.283 .365 .403 .768). He is a contact hitter as shown by the low SOs(49 in 410AB) which is consistant to his career numbers also. Defensively, I dont have all the numbers at hand but he has decent fielding skills and pretty good range at 2nd.

Pitcher – Jess Todd, I really like this kid. He has risen fast from low A to AAA in 2 seasons. I realize this is a relatively small sample size but he has performed at every level. As expected his numbers were up in AAA he still averaged nearly 8SO/9. He would have to get his walks down a bit but I think this is the guy for the backend of the rotation.

by PacNWCardFan on Feb 18, 2009 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

pitchers-

Motte and Ostlund

hitters – schumaker and t. greene

disappointments -

pitcher – Perez and Ring

hitters – Duncan and Thurston

I hate winter!!!!

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 18, 2009 12:46 PM EST reply actions  

hmm

I love that Edwards pick. He’s the ultimate boom or bust type, and I have a lot of hope that there is a big breakout coming. We’re guessing here though, and my guess is that breakthrough at the higher levels happens a year or 2 down the road.

So I’m going with Hoffpauir. All eyes will be on 2nd. I know Hoffpauir has a reputation as a slow starter, but this is going to be his best opportunity and I still believe he’s our best long term option of this group. Disclaimer – I may well have picked him last year too. Somewhere along the way, I’ve made an emotional investment in this guy breaking through.

Pitcher – I like PJ Walters. I think he’s the type of pitcher that can have a great deal of success in a spring setting. Keeping batter on their toes, upsetting their timing, etc. Whether his stuff translates over the long haul remains to be seen, but I think he could do quite well for himself over the spring.

by Merry CRasmus on Feb 18, 2009 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

I'm going to separate

“buzz” from “surprise” for the PPs. The buzz guy will be Wallace … in the sense that everyone knows he’s going to be a good ML hitter, but when people actually see him hit in person, the level of excitement will be ratcheted up … and a few of the guys on the ML team are going to be nervously looking over their shoulders all year.

The surprise PP will be Joe Mather, not so much for his hitting, but for the remarkably smooth transformation into a pretty good defensive 3rd baseman.

Pitcher: Jason Motte will be visited thrice, on a feverish night in late February, by the ghosts of changeups past, present and future … leaving him both inspired and with a wicked 2nd pitch that will win him the closer’s job by May 1.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 18, 2009 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

Who doesn't like prizes, real or imaginary.

I hope it’s a pegacorn. Last Year my prediction came true, although before spring training hit. So RB, still plugging for John Edwards even after the whole cheating on the wife with cancer thing. Still don’t see the upside, he’ll be 59 this season.

Alright, time for some picks. I going with Joey Bombs because he’ll get the AB’s while playing musical chairs for Tony. As for the pitcher I think Chris Perez will win the closers job with a 0.00 ERA in the spring. Yeah I know I’m not really going out on a limb with these but I have to win that pegacorn, it’s a moral imperative.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Feb 18, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions  

Ouch

Not only did I cheat, picking two of each, but I picked Brad Furnish, Andres Rosales, Tyler Greene, and Ryde Rodriguez…

Almost as bad as Juan Mosquera for one of my sleepers. The second coming of Rafael Furcal he is not

by liam on Feb 18, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Getting in on the fun...

Love this stuff…thanks RB. I’ll start with the easy pick for me:

Position Player – Brian Barden
His bat’s not quite good enough for a 3B. Fortunately for him he’s now a MIF. I’m picking him as a good platoon partner for Thurston or better yet Skip, and a good backup for KG.

Pitcher – Jess Todd or PJ Walters
Oh how I’d like to be typing Jamie Garcia here. I like both of these guys because the whole is greater than the sum of its parts with them. They both got great results through AA with unspectacular stuff, and both stumbled a bit at AAA last year. I’m going with Todd, cause I have a little more faith in his ability that I do Walters.

Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"

...and then it hits me!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 18, 2009 1:09 PM EST reply actions  

My Picks

Pitcher: Josh Kinney
In case he stays healty

Position Player : Joe Thurston
In case Skip or Rick/Dunc is traded

by Brianzaredbird on Feb 18, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions  

Pitcher: Jess Todd
Position Player: Colby Rasmus. He is going to have one hell of a spring. Mark my words……

by Woodwork on Feb 18, 2009 1:31 PM EST reply actions  

shockers

Clayton Mortenson — breaks through at ST, gets an invite to the bigs in May after pitching injuries

Bryan Anderson — outstanding ST play demands attention, moves into full backup role with spot appearances elsewhere in the field after the all-star break.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

And the winners are...

Pitcher: PJ Walters, just gotta funny feeling that somebody who is very unique (soft-tossing righty) will tickle Duncan, could he supplant Boggs as the first insurance arm from Memphis. And if its not him, then ill just stick with my pick from last year, Clay Mortenson. I can do that right

Position Player: This guy has to be Skip Schumaker, right? Making an often refered to, often dismissed move from the outfield to the infield, perhaps he will surprise us and hit .300, slug well enough to be respected, and play average defense at the easiest position to play*. Or he could be historically awful, commit seventeen errors in the first 4 weeks, hit a Izturis like .230, put AP on the DL with throws directly into the runners, and face the wrath of the almighty LaRussa. Whatever happens, most likely somewhere between these two scenarios, it will be interesting.

*At least, that what everybody tells me. It cant be more than just standing there, pushing the o button to turn that perfect double play when the time is right, right?

"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"
"You are what you eat and you clearly went out and devoured a big fat guy"

by jacksonian on Feb 18, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions  

thanks for informing me of Samuel! I had no idea...

David Freese – has been itching to get into the big leagues as evidenced by his AAA season last year, and he now sees his opportunity to make it happen. he will annihilate spring training pitching, and will play Glausian defense. sleeper pick: Ankiel, wanting to prove he is legit and that his injuries were bringing him down last year. also, I like the K. Greene pick RB

Wellemeyer – I think we all are going to be surprised by the Colonel this season. I think he will have that control he has been flaunting lately, and will be improved upon last season and ready to be a starter in every sense.

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

The Roberts Soap Opera

May finally be at an end. Dreams crushed, tears flowing, etc…etc…etc………………

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Feb 18, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

Dammit.

He’d look sharp in the B-o-B and give us a very solid lineup. Not that I expected to see him in Cardinal red, but …

OTOH, I still get to watch him here at home! I’ll just squint and use my imagination when he comes up to bat.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 18, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmm

4Y$40M seems like a lot when you have huge holes at both corner infield spots and no good players in the farm system for those spots either. I thought the Markakis contract was a smart one, but I think that locking up Adam Jones and seeing what Wieters does this season before possibly locking up his arbitration years would have been a better move for their franchise.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 18, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Work with me bro,

we are truly desperate here in Charm City. And we’d love Angelos’ bottom line to get a little closer to red ink, just to cause him nightmares.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 18, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Gomer Pyle predictions (su-prise, su-prise, su-prise)

Pitcher: PJ Walters. I think he can be effective against ST lineups, but if makes the club won’t last through May. Not enough stuff and not left handed.

Position: Joe “Fuzzy” Thurston. I know I’m not inclined to expect anything from a 29yr old journeyman…but I can’t help believing in an African-American second baseman named “Joe.”

by random on Feb 18, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions  

A black sheriff??? (He's black?)

I just lost a little faith in his ability to grit his way onto the team.

by mattybobo on Feb 18, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

My Picks

Pitcher- Jess Todd
Duncan will immediately take a shine to the kid who pitches to contact. He will fall in love with his sinker and his cutter. This will lead to a soundbite in the p-d where Duncan talks about the importance of a reliever being able to come in with runners on and generate ground balls. Ultimately this Dunc love will allow Todd to muscle his way into the righthanded reliever mix.

Hitter- Jon Jay
He fell off everyone’s radar screen before a big bounce back last season. I see him hitting .340ish this spring due to small sample size/crappy competition flukiness. Sportswriters will talk about his “sweet lefthanded swing.” In the end he will just miss making the big club, as Duncan takes the last LH OF spot. But you will hear people calling into sports talk radio saying things like, “that Jay kid in Memphis could step right in and hit .330, why don’t they trade him to the Padres for Peavy straight-up.”

by ebo on Feb 18, 2009 2:15 PM EST reply actions  

Rasmus!

PP: Rasmus — am i cheating in picking him since he’s been the top prospect for 3 years? i say no, in that he has yet to get a major league at-bat. you heard it here: rasmus will be the opening day CF and will hit 200 homeruns this year.

Pitcher: Carpenter — He will win 200 games to go w/ Rasmus’ 200 HR’s. Actually, i’ll settle for 30 starts and a 2.85 era w/ 18 wins.

by thecardinallaw on Feb 18, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions  

Lots to choose from but...here goes

Hitter- Jon Jay actually makes the brass wonder if he’s not more ready than Rasmus. Honorable mention, Brian Barton and Toni Cruz. The latter leaves spring training with publicity for actually being able to play his position and swinging a decent bat.

Pitcher-Jess Todd almost makes the club. Then is called up by June. I like Kinney’s chances to surprise also.

by easy on Feb 18, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions  

Mark my words...

Position Player – Brian Barton. He dropped off of most people’s radar last year after he got hurt. I think he’ll rebound to his previous levels and cause even more confusion in our outfield. I’m guessing he’ll end up at Memphis with Duncan until somebody gets traded.

Pitcher – Carpenter. He’ll make it through the spring with no setbacks causing all Cardinal fans (myself included) to predict 103 wins. Oh yeah – he won’t miss a start the rest of the season either.

by birdo rojo on Feb 18, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

nice

I’m glad someone picked Barton… very distinct possibility

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

goold put in his early vote and it's a real surprise.

he says that Hawksworth (hawksworth!) is burning things up on the mound, and quotes duncan as saying it’s the best he’s ever seen from blake. most recent post at p-d site.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

That'd make me happy

He had a Bugs Bunny changeup back in the day.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Feb 18, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

(His sister’s a fox.)

by liam on Feb 18, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

yes, yes she is

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

ManRam

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Feb 19, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions  

i believe you will find it

here.

and the quote, for the supremely lazy who do not care for this “clicking on hyperlinks” so en vogue with the kiddies.

The pitcher who threw first may have thrown best for the day. Hawksworth, who has seen his sun rise and burn bright as a prospect only to set after injuries and inconsistent performance (he struggled in Triple-A last season), drew compliments for his aggressive approach in his Live BP this spring. Gifted with a plus changeup, Hawksworth has thrown more assertively with his fastball this spring and was in command of the strike zone against the hitters today.

"He’s been throwing the ball well," pitching coach Dave Duncan said. "Best I’ve ever seen him throw is this spring. It looks like he has more confidence. He’s being more aggressive. The quality of his pitches is better. He seems to have better velocity."

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

ack

poor samuel.

"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo

by SleepyCA on Feb 18, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really going out on a limb here, but...

Position Player: Freese
Pitcher: Todd

My pick for biggest dissappointment: Wellemeyer. I think Pinata will have a better season than The Colonel.

And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.

by tangledbrett on Feb 18, 2009 3:26 PM EST reply actions  

No

I meant Jess Todd.

And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.

by tangledbrett on Feb 18, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

heh

I know. but RB said no negatives! plus my opinion on the subject is quite the opposite, mwuhahaha

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops. My bad on the negativity.

I think Wellemeyer will be OK this year, but I don’t think he we be as good as last year. If he regresses a bit, and Pinata has a decent year. We will be in good shape IMO.

And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.

by tangledbrett on Feb 18, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

totally

he is, in all probability, due for a regression. but like at least half the cardinals players, he isn’t really a normal, easy to predict case. I really hope Pineiro rebounds, that would be something. I just don’t see it happening, and comparing him to the Colonel and saying he would have a better season sort of set me off… especially after how well Welley pitched last year. go spring training!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Wallace or Barton??

Pitcher: Mitchell Boggs if only because I think he is ready for the rotation

Pos. Player: Either Wallace or Barton but becuase my man crush on Barton might be clouding my vision I’ll choose Bret Wallace…..he’ll hit well in ST and people will write and write and write wondering if he is MLB ready

Bruce Seldon > Ali

by rjhabeeb on Feb 18, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

Tony seems to have more or less decided that he's not.

Quoted at stlcardinals.com: “And the at-bats you give him, I don’t think he’ll get enough at-bats to where it will be that important…. The big thing is that he get a really good teaching spring and get set up for the Minor League season.” I wonder what’ll happen if he goes all Pujols 2001 out there.

by BTown Birds fan on Feb 18, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Or what would

happen if Freese/Craig both get hurt or perform poorly. You don’t want Brendan Ryan starting at 3B – you take too big of an offensive hit at a key offensive position.

by Toddius on Feb 18, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

The thing is it wouldn't be that big of a deal

Yes, we would use one of his options and start his clock. But I imagine he will be the kind of player that once he is up he will not likely be sent down again so his lack of one option will not be a factor. The way it is setting up now he could legitimately be the starting 3B in 2010 so he would probably be a Super 2 regardless if he started in the big leagues instead of the minors.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

you think so?

my concern re: options is that he doesn’t have an immediate role on the team. glaus is at least supposedly coming back in May (grain of salt administered orally). would we keep him up all year to be a spare corner infielder and pinch hitter?

and going into 2010, my concern is his defense. i need to see more to know, but many people familiar with his defense have concerns there . i can see some shuffling between AAA and the bigs there — at least potentially. If his defense doesn’t make him a 3b candidate, freese might be the better option, and he might get sent back to learn a different role. I would be less concerned, say, about Rasmus’ options, provided that space is made for him to start in the outfield. if they clear a path for him, he’s likely to stick. i can picture a scenario using an option in both 2009 and 2010. maybe not, but i’m reluctant to throw him up into the bigs, unless glaus really looks like he’ll be out past the all-star break.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I would send him back when Glaus got back

His glove isn’t bad as a lot of people make out and the arm is good. The problem is he has no range except for “fall down” range. I think Wallace would be best paired up with a SS with great range to help out his defense on his left side.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe that's our longterm answer in the field.

shift pujols to midway between first and second. move short and second about 15 feet closer to third. let wallace play within a ‘fall-down’ range of the 3b bag. let pujols’ crazy range do our work for us. just train the pitcher to automatically cover first on a ground ball.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Izturius will be missed this year

He was specular on defense last year and made the entire infield better. Glaus and Kennedy both had arguably their best years defensively last year. Greene is just not the same caliber.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Great observation...

this will be interesting to watch. I have confidence that Greene will make up enough of the difference with his bat, though.

Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"

...and then it hits me!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 18, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't have a lot of faith in Greene

I think he will be hated like Encarnacion was for his high K’s and Low BB’s

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Ks anyway...

Lankford was hated more than any long time Cardinal I can remember, and he walked a ton.

Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)

by DiscoJer on Feb 18, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

People Hated Lankford?

I got a little frustrated with all the damn Ks, but I have never heard anyone say they hated him.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

and....BEN SHEETS!!! **

**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)

by mattyfrommo on Feb 19, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't hate him

I thought he was the best player we had for a little bit

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 23, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm going with

Joel Pinero- pissed off from not being a starter for Puerto Rico will dominate ST and win 13 games this year

Wallace – hits better than everyone, including Pujols, during ST and forces TLR to play him.

  - I’ve never been good at these games

by STLRegalia on Feb 18, 2009 3:46 PM EST reply actions  

mather / k-mac

mather will make the most of his opportunities vs lhp’s, so much so, that tlr will have trouble benching him vs rhp’s.
K-mac will quietly slide into the rotation out of necessity, and overachieve everyones expectations.

by ball in play on Feb 18, 2009 4:01 PM EST reply actions  

I didn't think about K Mac

He could very well impress out of spring.

This thread is getting me stoked for the season!

Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.

by Gregatron on Feb 18, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

4 pitch arsenal

one of which is a cutter. still developing :)

by ball in play on Feb 18, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

i've always had an irrational liking for Jess Todd

the fact that he has the power to destroy us all, notwithstanding. He’s gota good shot at being this year’s KMC.

Also, since Khalil Greene is a 130 game/year player, I think that one of either Tyler Greene or Brendan Ryan pretty much has to make the team. We’ll need a legitimate SS defender on the bench. I’m a big Ryan fan, but I would like to see the other Greene step up this spring and get Noticed.

"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo

by SleepyCA on Feb 18, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions  

Hm,m my 2

Pitcher: Luke Gregerson comes in ST and dominates. He has an amazing winter league in the Venezuela. He put up a 0.82 ERA in 19 Games and 22.0 IP. 19H 2ER 18 SO 8 BB 1.23 WHIP .238 AVG. He was the Set Up man of the year in the League. He lost his job in Springfield this year to Salas and was forgotten about. I was disappointed he didn’t get a roster invite.

Hitter: Chris Duncan, I think Duncan will just mash the shit out of the ball for being the healthiest he has been since 2006. We all seem to be down on him since he got playing time when he was hurt but if he can get back to the same level he is capable of than he would be a huge help to the lineup.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 4:53 PM EST reply actions  

i like gregerson, but that would be a hell of a trick.

he’s not on the 40man and he’s not an NRI. probably one of the odder fellows to leave off the NRI list.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

One more guy I promise

I am really surprised no one has said Jon Jay. He could possibly be better at Defense than Rasmus. Per minorleaguesplits.com he was worth 25/150 Runs/Games. 25 RUNS!!!!!!!!!! Wow that is just ridiculous on so many levels. Just for comparison Rasmus was 15/150.

Just to understand how good 25/150 really is the only player in the MLB with a 25/150 is Carl Crawford. Plus, he can kind of hit.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd take those minor league numbers with a gigggggggantic grain of salt

Projecting anyone to be the best in the majors at any talent is never a good idea, let alone based on something as fuzzy as defensive statistics. That’s not to say Jay won’t be a plus defender I have no idea, I just feel extremely confident in saying we shouldn’t be expecting +25 run defense from him or anyone else. Expecting +15 run defense is a huge stretch itself.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Feb 18, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree but the good thing is that OFer's defense numbers don't diminish when going to the Majors

For infielders for every level they go up their numbers normally diminish defensively. So an average MLB 3B would be an above average defensive 3B in AAA.

While OFer’s normally don’t take any hit when moving to the majors. So if you are a plus defender in the minors than you will most likely be a plus defender in the majors.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/totalzone-takes-on-the-minors/

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 18, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

I wouldn’t get too excited about one season at +25.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Feb 18, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions  

future redbirds had a good thread on this when it broke.

see this article.

jay is sure a good fielder, but not likely a +25 good fielder.

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmmm

Pitcher- Clayton Mortenson, He was pretty high on the prospect radar, made a big jump, and feel off the radar a little bit. I think he’ll do better this year.

Hitter- K. Greene, Has the best odds of improving as he had a terrible year last year, and is moving away from petco, which might be most important psychologically. Has nowhere to go but up.

by TheBirds on Feb 18, 2009 6:06 PM EST reply actions  

Cardinal Cliches for 1000 Alex
"[It’s] like us going out there and signing a CC Sabathia type, a true ace,‘’ Wainwright said of the return of Carpenter. "He’s won a Cy Young in 2005, and he pitches 230 innings a year when healthy. If we can get him back in our rotation, we’re going to be strong.’’

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Feb 18, 2009 6:31 PM EST reply actions  

Leave me out of this.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Feb 18, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Suck it Trebeck!

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

ManRam

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Feb 19, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions  

"the spring surprise is one of our most popular products.

“the customer bites down on the chocolate, and stainless steel bolts shoot out, puncturing both cheeks.”

“well, that’s hardly fair. a fellow pops a nice chocky in his mouth, he doesn’t expect to get his cheeks pierced. I’m afraid I shall have to ask you to accompany me to the station.”

by tom s. on Feb 18, 2009 6:41 PM EST reply actions  

My 2

Pitcher: Deryk Hooker — I think he’s got the stuff to dominate AA hitters by the end of this year, so he’s a sure shot to surprise some people in the spring that haven’t seen him yet. He was filthy in his 4 start stint at the Quad Cities last year and will hopefully start the year in Springfield after a strong spring.

Position Player: Pete Kozma. There are very few SS in the Cardinal minors that deserve any PT in split-squad play, so I think that Kozma should get some AB’s. Being a former first round pick should help as well. I don’t think that there’s any question about his glove, but his bat seems to be extremely slow to come along at each level. Maybe he can surprise over the next month and cement his job at Springfield to start the year. That’s my hope, anyway.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 18, 2009 7:20 PM EST reply actions  

My Picks

Pitcher: Kyle Mac. I think he will pitch so well Pina Colata ends up in the bullpen.

Position: Wallace. He’s the real deal and his bat will make us a playoff contender.

If this works out, I’ll repost this daily all season. If it sinks, please delete this post.

by patton044 on Feb 18, 2009 7:40 PM EST reply actions  

Everybody take notice!

I did not add them up, but did you notice how many people are in camp with real upside potential?? I don’t recall spring training starting with so many players with a real chance to do something special. I think this will be an exciting year, because some of them will come through and meet the expectations.

by Remember Kenny B on Feb 18, 2009 8:32 PM EST reply actions  

yeah

there’s really a very wide margin for this team… I could see them going anywhere from hovering above .500 to winning 90+ games. should be at least as interesting as last season but way better.

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

This team could win anywhere from 0 to 162 games

that’s as far out on a limb as I am willing to go.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Feb 18, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Well sure...

But everyone knows the playoffs are a crapshoot.

hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit

by Alxfritz on Feb 19, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Picks

Pitcher: Hawksworth—cheating slightly on this one based on what Goold said earlier today about him being in top form.

Hitter: Jason LaRue—mainly just mixing it up a little with this pick, since about everyone’s been said, but I do have a good feeling about Lawrence in ’09. Second year with the team should help him feel more comfortable and I think he will settle in and give the Cards an exceptional year backing up Yadi.

by VinegarBend on Feb 18, 2009 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

Blake Hawksworth and Brian Barden

Hawksworth experienced a further set back last year and has his back against the wall. If he doesn’t work out this year, he’ll be released in November. I look to him to be the first choice to fill in as starter once the injury bug hits. He will perform well and keep his spot for the latter half of the season.

Brian Barden is the sleeper at 2B. 2008’s exposure in the Olympics and the clubhouse exposure in the 2007 and the September call up helped TLR gain confidence in targeting AK for different pastures. He’ll platoon by probably not facing tough righties and I see him getting “Miles level” AB. He’ll beat out Brendan Ryan for the super utility/2b righty spot sharing 2B with Thurston (sorry Skip fans)

by ubeddie on Feb 18, 2009 10:44 PM EST reply actions  

hudson

after we do a sign and trade (schu) with arizona

pj for the pitcher

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Feb 18, 2009 10:50 PM EST reply actions  

it's really cool to see

that everyone pretty much picked different people. huge variety of predictions, interesting.

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 18, 2009 11:04 PM EST reply actions  

My picks

Offense: David Freese. The advantage in this category is tilted towards someone who is far enough along to be able to impress against major league competiton, yet has been seen infrequently enough to still be surprising. Add in the fact that SOMEONE has to see a lot of emergency reps at 3B, and I’d say Freese is a good bet to win here.

Pitching: Carpenter. For the sake of the Cards, I hope like hell he has a good enough spring that everyone is running around in those giddy little circles that soccer players do after scoring goals.

by siddfynch on Feb 18, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions  

My pick

Community Synthesis: fail

by slurve on Feb 20, 2009 8:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Picks

Offense – Schumaker. Shows enough with the glove that TLR is willing to at least consider him as a backup at 2nd and a possible Sunday getaway type start every now and then. Also, shows that last season’s numbers weren’t a fluke and builds off of them with a few more SB.

Pitching: Nicholas Additon. Doesn’t win himself a big league spot or anything, but does enough to get the Clayton Mortenson Award for shiny new toy. The lanky lefty gives hopes with a solid arsenal that Garcia won’t have to be rushed back from Tommy John as there is more than one lefty with a solid shot at the show.

by The Gottfather on Feb 18, 2009 11:44 PM EST reply actions  

Royce Ring & The Hoff

i’m going with nothing but by gut here.

and for the justice league, i was going to pick Superman & Batman, but they are superstars & won’t surprise anybody. so i’m going to go with Firestorm & Ice.

BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS

ManRam

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Feb 19, 2009 12:38 AM EST reply actions  

picks

Now that I’ve read everyone’s posts and am thoroughly overwhelmed with the potential of this team I don’t think I can make any picks. So…

pitcher – Perez is going to be our closer, with Motte and Kinney as his setup men. Didn’t I read that Perez lost a bunch of weight over the winter?

position – freese, for all the reasons listed above.

justice leaguer – wonder woman…i need a shower

by sbentley on Feb 19, 2009 12:44 AM EST reply actions  

Pick 'em

How about a group pick:

Pitcher(s)- The right handers of the Cardinal’s bullpen- a variety of talent that could be consistently dominant

Position player(s)- Cardinals offense- productive upgrades @ 2nd(Shue)/SS and an outfield that ends up being 2nd to none w/ no bad choices for opening day

The potential is there for the Cards to come out of Spring flying high!!!

by Bobmang on Feb 19, 2009 1:29 AM EST reply actions  

Hmmm

Pitcher: Kinney. I’m sure that he is being over-picked here, but images of his curveball in the 06 WS continue to stick in my mind. I guarantee you he ends up with 70 innings and a sub 3.50 ERA.

Hitter: Tyler Greene. I love the tools. He reminds me of Kahlil Greene.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 19, 2009 1:57 AM EST reply actions  

My picks...

Pitcher: Ian Ostlund. Great minor league record who’s struck out over a batter per innings and walked less than 2 per 9 in two seasons at triple A. AAA FIP of just over 3.00 with a pretty high BABIP. He’s not useless against righties either, and I think he comes out of ST as our most interesting bullpen lefty.

Hitter: Joey Bombs. More than a little unlucky after his call-up last year, I expect him to mash in ST as he was in AAA last year and split time with Freese at 3B, as well as taking OF ABs away from Ankiel when there’s a LHP on. Although I could’ve happily picked Duncan, Barton, Barden or Joe Thurston for this one…

by Felonius_Monk on Feb 19, 2009 4:55 AM EST reply actions  

I also kinda like Kinney and perhaps Salas in the pitching category, though it seems almost everyone here is bullish on Kinney so perhaps it’d be MORE of a surprise if he sucks in ST…

by Felonius_Monk on Feb 19, 2009 4:57 AM EST reply actions  

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