Roster Matrix and Pujols

by Cardsray on Feb 17, 2009 2:59 PM EST Comment 14 comments

A quick apology, this is my first fanpost. Don't really know what I'm doing, but I'd really like to hear what people think of the question

DanUp's recent matrix and Albert Pujols....I'd like to tie these two together for a minute and get some people's thoughts. As I look at the matrix, I notice a MASSIVE amount of salary coming off the books after 2009. I will tie this into Pujols in a minute, but first some math:

11.3 million- Glaus
6.5 million- Greene
2.875 million- Ankiel
4 million- Kennedy
7.5 million Pinata
2.5 million Franklin
---------------
34.675 million coming off the books after 2009

Given our current payroll is at 92.23 million, this subtraction will leave us with a payroll somehwere in the neighborhood of 60 million after the end of the season. Obviously there is a ton of other variables I am leaving out like whether these players will be resigned, whether these spots will be filled with cheap cost-controlled youngsters or pricier free agents, etc. Not to mention jumps in salaries of players like Molina and Wainwright, etc. But I also see where there could be a lot of this salary replaced by youngsters i.e Wallace/freese replacing glauses salary, rasmus replacing Ank's, etc. My point is that there SHOULD be a ton of payroll flexibility after this season. So my question to everyone is (and this is where Pujols ties in): What will the Cards ownership and front office do with this money?? We all know Apu's contract renewal issue is possibly years away, but I think I speak for more than just myself that I'm already concerned about it. He has said recently (and publicly) the main force driving his desire to resign is whether the Cards will have a competitve team to field, not money. But that doesn't mean that we can sign him for 5 million a year as long as we have an awesome team around him. We'll still have to pony up a small king's ransom.

So will ownership:
A). Use this salary to throw Sir Albert a fat contract and try to fill most holes from the farm.

B). Use all of it to sign good free agents for these holes (insert wishlist if you'd like)

C). Use all of it for a combination of both A and B

D). Use a smidgeon of it to fill a hole or two with free agents, use the farm for the rest and blame the economy for reducing payroll to 70-80 million

Again, sorry if I did this wrong or this isn't the right place to post this. Just wondering what people's thoughts are.

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When you want a poll

Use the “Add a Poll” feature in the Create a FanPost section. That will allow people to vote on your poll and display the results to those who have voted.

As for the question you pose:

I think it has to be a combination of A and B. You have to hope that Rasmus and Wallace are able to fill holes at 3B and CF for the next 5-7 years, which will give the team lower cost players at two positions that demand quite a bit in free agent salary dollars. You also have to hope one or two of the starting pitchers on the farm are able to turn into middle of the rotation (i.e. 3,4, or 5) starters. At this point, the club could look to extend Waino and Pujols at the appropriate times while still going after an ace starter in the next couple of years via free agency.

I don’t see any in-house options to fill the middle infield spots, unless Kozma improves drastically in his second full pro season or someone comes out of nowhere to impress over the next year. I really like the signings of guys like De La Cruz, because those guys could pay big dividends to our farm system if they truly are the real deal.

I hate to say this, but I think that D is a very possible option, especially if tickets sales really lag in 2009. If that happens, I think you’re going to see the front office get very, very frugal and look to build from within even more than they are now. It’s also possible that this would give the Cardinals a competitive advantage within the division, since they won’t be locked into expensive long-term deals with veteran players like the Cubs and Astros currently are.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 17, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions

missing from the accounting above is money added to the books without new signings.

contractual boosts in salary for molina, wainwright, lohse, etc. will scarf up a big chunk of that, as will future arbitration costs — ludwick will easily net us another mil with a decent season; if duncan is back and healthy, he won’t be a six-figure player in 2010; and i can’t remember off the top of my head whether wellemeyer has another year of arbitration.

but the short answer is, it depends. if k. greene fits here, he may merit and get an extension. if barden or ryan or thurston fit at second, that would control our costs there. if todd or k-mac or boggs pitches well in a starting role, that would control our costs at the back end of the rotation. it does seem likely that most of our bullpen, our third baseman, and our outfield will be cost-controlled in 2010.

but if lots of prospects fail and carpenter doesn’t show up again, and we have to shop for both parts of a middle infield, a closer, and three-fifths of a rotation? all that money goes away real quick.

if we have even some of our prospects pan out, i would like to see us get in on a good pitcher — i have my eye on webb, but there are other credible starters that are #1, #2 guys. that’s our biggest hole going forward. a nice middle infielder — and I know brian roberts’ name gets thrown around ad nauseum, but he’s good — would be a great add.

by tom s. on Feb 17, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions

There's a lot of pitching talent to be had next season

Brandon Backe (32)
Danys Baez (32)
Miguel Batista (39)
Josh Beckett (30) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Erik Bedard (31)
Daniel Cabrera (29)
Chris Capuano (31)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Jose Contreras (38)
Doug Davis (34)
Justin Duchscherer (32)
Adam Eaton (32) – $9MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Shawn Estes (37)
Josh Fogg (33)
Freddy Garcia (34)
Jon Garland (30) – $10MM mutual option with $2.5MM or $1MM buyout
Mike Hampton (37)
Rich Harden (28)
Mark Hendrickson (36)
Livan Hernandez (35)
Tim Hudson (34) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Jennings (31)
Jason Johnson (36)
Randy Johnson (46)
John Lackey (31)
Cliff Lee (31) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Braden Looper (35) – option
Jason Marquis (31)
Kevin Millwood (35) – Rangers can decline $12MM salary for ’10 unless he reaches 180 innings in ’09
Brian Moehler (38) – mutual option
Brett Myers (29)
Vicente Padilla (32) – $12MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Chan Ho Park (37)
John Parrish (32)
Carl Pavano (34)
Brad Penny (32)
Odalis Perez (33)
Andy Pettitte (38)
Joel Pineiro (31)
Mark Prior (28)
Horacio Ramirez (30)
Jason Schmidt (37)
John Smoltz (43)
Tim Wakefield (43) – perpetual $4MM club option

I personally have my eye on Bedard.

My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...

by Taskmaster on Feb 17, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions

I think the word "talent" may be a stretch

There’s a lot of “pitching” available next season. Nearly every good pitcher on that list has some sort of issue, and there’s not a lot of really good talent on that list to begin with. Most of them are coming off injuries in 2008, are getting up there in years, or have options that could be exercised.

Why Bedard? Because he’s the best of a pretty average group of pitchers? Bedard’s thrown 1.5 good seasons of baseball in his career, was hurt last year, and didn’t pitch well at all when he wasn’t hurt either. I’d rather go after Lackey, Harden, or Brett Myers before I’d be looking at Bedard.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 17, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

Ofcourse, there's no Sabathia

who is the perfect pitcher, those are VERY rare. Almost any pitcher you sign nowadays has some sort of problem. It’s like Ben Sheets like many people (And I) were partial to. Someone like Duchscherer or Harden would spike the crap out of our rotation.

My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...

by Taskmaster on Feb 17, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions