The 2008 All Defense Team
by chuckb on Feb 15, 2009 12:30 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintWith that in mind, I wanted to construct what I’m calling my All-Defense team for 2008. These guys aren’t necessarily the best defensive players at their positions but they are, basically, all defense. In other words, their offense in 2008 was pretty close to replacement level for their position but their defense was so good as to make them, for the most part, above average players for the season. These players are largely undervalued, as Dave Cameron helped to illustrate Friday b/c their offense just isn’t very good. As it turns out, however, all of the value, or almost all of it, comes from their defense and yet, they were about league average ballplayers in 2008. The casual fan will look at these guys’ offensive stats for 2008 and think me crazy for calling them league average players but, due to their defense, that’s exactly what they were.
So, without further ado, here is the 2008 All-Defense Team:
| Pos | Player | Batting | Fielding | WAR | Value | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Casey Kotchman | -2.5 | 5.5 | 1.1 | $5.0 | $1.5 |
| 2B | Mark Ellis | -4.7 | 17.0 | 3.1 | $13.9 | $5.0 |
| SS | Orlando Cabrera | -11.1 | 16.4 | 3.7 | $16.6 | $10.0 |
| 3B | Mike Lowell | 4.1 | 9.9 | 3.1 | $14.0 | $12.5 |
| RF | Hunter Pence | 3.6 | 8.3 | 2.6 | $11.7 | $0.4 |
| CF | Adam Jones | -7.0 | 10.3 | 2.2 | $10.1 | $0.4 |
| LF | Carl Crawford | -2.5 | 18.8 | 2.7 | $12.2 | $5.4 |
| Totals | -20.1 | 86.2 | 18.5 | $83.5 | $35.2 |
First of all, catchers aren’t evaluated defensively the same way other fielders are simply due to the unique nature of the position. Since they’re not evaluated in terms of runs and wins on defense, they weren’t included. The winner probably would have been Bengie Molina, however, had I chosen one.
The seven players listed above were worth roughly 8.5 wins simply due to their outstanding defense and they were worth roughly 10.5 wins more on defense than on offense. This helps to illustrate why they are so undervalued – as evidenced by the fact that they were paid less than $50 M LESS than their value in 2008. Bengie Molina was worth more than $13 M to the Giants while they paid him just $6.3 M, adding nearly an additional $7 M to the difference between value and salary for these players.
The inclusion of Pac Man Jones on this list brings a smile to my face, mostly b/c of what it could say about Rasmus this year. For the last 2-3 years, Jones and Rasmus were seen as basically interchangeable on various prospect lists. One would have one a couple of spots higher and another would have the other a couple of spots higher. In my mind, it’s very foreseeable that Rasmus could have an ’09 similar to Jones’ 08 – ok offensively but 10+ runs above average defensively to end up greater than 2 WAR. It would be a very good rookie season meaning that whatever Rasmus provided offensively would be gravy. It’s no difficult at all to see Rasmus being league average or even a 3 win player or so if his defense turns out to be as good as advertised.
I think this list, and their values also says something about a team's ability to find value where it appears none exists. It's not always easy to find an affordable yet above average offensive player. On the other hand, teams on a tight budget can find affordable above average defensive players that can enable them to win games when, if you look at their lineup, you think they're doing it w/ smoke and mirrors.
Finally, let’s have another plug for the Cards’ Maple Street Annual. It starts shipping tomorrow and is gonna be full of good Cards’ stuff.
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these last two posts have been great, chuckb.
i have to stump here for the fact that we have the number one projected defensive catcher in the ML, per baseballprojection.com, as well as the best defensive 1b.
Rasmus' D
This uses Total Zone Rating which correlates well with UZR, and while we don’t know exactly how well it predicts future performance, it should give you a rough idea of how good a fielder a player is. Colby’s TTR/150 in center have been:
2005: +27!!!
2006: -2
2007: +12
2008: +15
I think that it is safe to say the he is a well above average fielder. For comparisons sake, Adam Jones’ TTR/150 in center in the minors were:
2006: +15
2007: +15
We don’t know exactly how well TTR can predict future performance, but if you take it at face value, Rasmus has been at least as good a fielder as Jones was. If Jones was a +15 fielder in the minors one year and than was a +10 fielder in the majors the next year, it is easy to imagine that Rasmus could do the same.
vivaelbeñsheets
great!
I’d have used his minorleaguesplits #s in the post but the other day when I tried to access it, the link wasn’t working. I really expect Rasmus to be a +7-10 defensive player in CF, at least.
the best take-home lesson of yesterday's post was how much we need razza's defense.
we have more than a full season’s defensive numbers for skip, ludwick, ankiel, and duncan. mather and barton, we don’t know much about yet. but the defensive numbers seem to corroborate what a lot of folks saw in their outfield defense. we have a bunch of good corner outfielders, but nobody who looks like a solid CF. just for that reason, i’d like to see razza by june 1, if not april 1.
if you check the other outfielders minor league defensive numbers, they tend generally to confirm the patterns shown at the major league level.
the chain effect
of rasmus in cf bumping ankiel to lf, bumping duncan to a bench role, keeps giving positive rewards defensively.
so
this means we want ak back?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Since when does
“better than replacement” = “above average”? I’ve always thought of those as 2 distinct things.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 15, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions
as far as defensive numbers go
replacement level correlates to average. They may be used interchangeably. With offense, league average is approximately 20 BRAA — about 2 wins above replacement level but replacement level players can play league average defense.
You wrong chuckb
BRAA is obviously batting runs above average based off of wOBA. So a league average hitter would be 0 BRAA.
UZR is fielding rungs above average. So a league average fielder would have a 0 UZR.
Then you add in a positional adjustment based on the scarcity of your position. For example a catchers is about 10 runs more valuable than a second baseman, simply because fewer players can play catcher.
Then you add replacement level adjustment based on plate appearances. That is what makes it WAR. A player with 600 PA gets 20.25 runs because he is taking the spot of a replacement level player.
An example of a league average player would be Mark Reynolds. He was +2.6 BRAA, -4.7 UZR, +2.3 runs because of the positional adjustment for his playing time at 3B, +20.4 runs based on 613 PA that he had. All in all he was a 2.1 WAR player or essentially a league average player.
An example of a replacement level player would be Kevin Millar in 08. He was -7.0 BRAA, -2.4 UZR, -11.6 runs because of the positional adjustment for his playing time at 1B, +20.3 runs based on 610 PA that he had. So all in all he was a -0.1 WAR player or basically a replacement level player.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
what is your point?
and how am I wrong? I understand how all that works and none of it relates to his question, unless I misunderstood the context of his question. My statement was aobut defensive numbers and you addressed that in 1 sentence only — the one about UZR. When dealing w/ defensive numbers, there is no such thing as a replacement level fielder. Replacement level and league average are both presumed to be 0. If that wasn’t his question, then I didn’t understand it but nothing I said was “wrong” — your lecture notwithstanding.
There is no such thing as replacement level fielder
There is only replacement level players. A replacement level player is anyone who is worth 0 WAR based on offensive AND defensive numbers. For example Daric Barton had a 4.6 UZR, so he was well above average on defense. However when you consider his terrible offensive numbers and his positoion, he was 16.1 runs BELOW average. You add in the replacement level adjustment for playing time and he is a 0 WAR player, or a replacement level player.
There is no such things as replacement level offense or defense. There is only BRAA and UZR. The combination of the two plus adjustments for position and playing time creates WAR.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
The reason some people have the view of "replacement-level fielding" (and "replacement-level hitting")...
… is because the most common skillset of a player who is replacement-level overall is that of a crappy hitter and nearly average fielder. But of course there are many different ways a replacement-level player’s skills can be distributed. It’s just that fielder is an easier athletic skill than hitting, so it’s not as scarce and easier to find.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
edit---"is approximately 20 BRAR"
and the entire reply is correct.
you even explained it as “about 2 wins above replacement”…..i hope noone is monitoring my typos :)
by ball in play on Feb 15, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
that's right
if vivaelpujols’ point was that I should have said 20 BRAR instead of BRAA, that’ s right. I did make a mistake there.
Thats what I was saying
sorry.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Crawford numbers in left field
really stick out to me. I’m not an expert on this type of analysis but I found it interesting that a left fielder could have such a high ranking. Obviously I say this because this is where teams usually hide their weak defensive player to get the bat in the line-up (Duncan, Dunn, Etc.) While we all know that SS is the most defensive important position of all, maybe this really indicates the overall importance of defense at all positions.
If this is true then an outfield of Ludwick, Ankiel, and Rasmus looks very promising. That is one very good defensive outfield and not to bad offensively as well. Glass, Pujols and Molina are also very good.
SS and 2B are the only concerns and I guess time will tell as to how that is going to play out. All in all this looks to be a very good defensive team but the question marks are at two of the most important defensive positions. Strength up the middle is extremely important and the illustration of the value of Crawford in LF only emphasizes how valuable SS and 2B can be to a team.
There's some noise built into one season's worth of data.
He’s always been good, but not that good in LF.
It’s like seeing some dude hit .340 one year and thinking, “he’s not THAT good, he’s more like a .300 hitter”. It happens. Only defensive metrics have some inexactness built in, whereas AVG does not, making it more prone to variation.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Overvaluing the "undervalued"...?
Maybe it’s just me, but I have a really hard time thinking that somebody could be “worth” $16 million to a team based on nothing but defense. I realize that you’re using a statistical approximation of salary based on a statistical approximation of win shares, so we’re not dealing with exact numbers, but it still bothers me that the crux of your argument is that these guys are severely underpaid. Orlando Cabrera was basically unmovable because of his salary just a couple of years ago – the Angels had to pay the White Sox hefty money to rid themselves of him and get back a middling starting pitcher, yet on this list he counts as a great value.
And maybe he was — the White Sox allowed 110 runs less from ’07 to ’08, and improved by 17 wins — but I still have a hard time wrapping my head around it from a dollar value perspective.
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
The crux of my argument
is that baseball is beginning to appreciate how valuable these guys are. Witness the contracts to which I referred at the begining of the post. If Cabrera was “unmovable” — a strange statement considering he was traded for a 200 IP pitcher who had won 15+ games several times — it was b/c GMs hadn’t yet come around to the idea that defense can be this valuable — what seems to be the same problem you’re having. A lot has changed in the last couple of years. First of all, Cabrera was only an 8 run defensive player in ‘07. He was considerably better in ’08. Secondly, GMs didn’t see him as being a nearly 4 win player b/c his value largely came from his defense. Let’s face it — last year Burrell, Dunn, and Abreu would’ve earned a lot more money and the difference wouldn’t have completely been a result of the poor economy. Part of it’s the sea change that’s going around GMs’ offices around the league as they come to the realization that defense is much more valuable than they previously thought.
I'll believe it when I see it
The salary negotiations of Burrell, Abreu and Dunn appear to be explanable by much simpler terms – a glut of availability at a set position, and a depression of buyers, certainly in part thanks to the economy. If your hypothesis is true, then why do you think it’s been so difficult for the Cardinals to move one of their cheap, defensively very sound outfielders?
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
i can readily imagine that GM's would say,
if I can get abreu for $5m/yr, or burrell for $8m/yr, i’d rather do that than still pay $3m for ankiel or $4m for ludwick on top of the prospects it would take to land them.
especially when you recognize that neither ludwick nor ankiel have the kind of long track record that would assure a GM that his offense is not a fluke. and both have had injury problems in the past.
agreed, but also:
defense doesnt sell tickets. people arent going to pay as much money to see casey kotchman as they are to see ryan howard.
by krippledmaster on Feb 15, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Other things being equal, Probably.
But I think winning sells tickets.
A winning offensive-minded team might outsell an equally winning defensive-minded team. But Whiteyball worked here in the 80s, and I think people can rally around a team that plays solid D and wins. If offense is more expensive than defense, then a team might turn out a winning club (= ticket-selling club) more cheaply by going with D.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 15, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
people pay money
to see teams win games and, if Kotchman can help a team win more games than Howard can, they will pay to see Kotchman b/c they’ll be paying to see a better team play. Individuals rarely sell tickets, and they don’t see a ton of tickets in and of themselves. The Cards wouldn’t pull in 3 million w/ Pujols at 1st if they lost 100 games in the process.
The salary estimate treats offensive and defensive runs the same.
Obviously MLB as a whole does not do this, even though they should. So a smart team actually will not pay the same for each, because then there’s no advantage to be had. A smart team would take these underrated players, but not quite at their deserved prices.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Gotcha
Just out of curiosity, using today’s numbers, how much would Ozzie Smith circa 1984 have been “worth”? He was turning 29, entering his seventh season and presumably a free agent (I don’t know the details), had almost no bat but a phenomenal glove at the far left of the defensive spectrum where it is most valuable… Seems like that would be your best case scenario.
Or, to address the issue of how much is a win worth in salary cap numbers in different eras… his earliest known salary on B-R is $1.4 million in 1985. How much of a bargain was that for the Cardinals at the time, by your calculations?
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
He was about a +25 runs his best few seasons, in true talent.
B-Ref lists him as about +5 runs during his peak. +7.5 runs for SS (maybe a run or two more back then). 22.5 runs for rep level. Total is 60 runs or about 6 WAR. At his peak.
I can’t put that into 1985 money, sorry.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
cabera/ellis would be a great defensive combo
add in an IF HEALTHY chavez, an improving suzuki who ranks just behind molina among catchers…thats a pretty good infield
I almost chose
Jack Hannahan as my 3B choice — his defense at the hot corner last year was much better than Chavez’s but his offense was so abysmal that he didn’t really fit the criteria. His defense was actually better than Lowell’s but his offense was much worse — at minus 14.9 runs — and I was looking for those who were closer to replacement level offensively. Billy Beane is doing a tremendous job finding value where other GMs are not (so what else is new?). Daric Barton almost got the nod at first as well. The other teams are catching up to him quicker than they did 6 or 8 years ago, but he’s still ahead of the pack.
yeah hannahan cant hit
his defense was a good surprise though…i think his offense might be passable at 2b, since hannahan played there in the minors. but that wont happen anytime soon w/ ellis signed for a couple yrs and weeks, cardenas, etc on the way
by Asfan4ever723 on Feb 15, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
It's an interesting analysis
Especially if applied to the current 2B competition.
Green, Barden, and maybe Ryan might fit very well with list. Thurston, maybe not, especially if you count the 2B as needing also to play backup SS.
Schu? Who knows?
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
quibbles
I was expecting poorer offensive numbers for the “defensive” specialists you listed. I scanned the career stats for all seven and didn’t see any offensive pikers at all… with the possible exception of the young Mr. Jones.
Letting only one example suffice, Kotchman, tho’ he didn’t produce a lot in his quarter season with the Braves, did hit .296 in ‘07 and .287 in ’08 with the Angels.
Career-wise there is a good case to be made for six of these seven being offensive threats (Lowell especially) and even just looking at ’08 numbers, each have SOMETHING that jumps out as an ’offensive’ plus… Crawford with 60 SBs, for instance… and Pence 83 RBI and 25 dingers.
offensive threats or not
this wasn’t an analysis of their career numbers nor was it a projection of how they might fare, offensively, this year. They were basically no better than average offensive players last year. Kotchman, FWIW, has been worse than average in 3 of his 5 seasons (albeit some of them partial seasons) in the big leagues and is hurt by the fact that he’s a 1B. He has value b/c he’s a good defensive player. Otherwise, he’s pretty fungible.
Actually
all of the players listed there (with the exception of Kotchman) were better than league average. Ellis, Cabrera and Lowell were all more than a full win above average.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
not offensively in 08
and i believe the quibble is about offense.
(ellis,cabrera and lowell were all more than a full win above average)
by ball in play on Feb 15, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
oh, right
sorry, misread it.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder
if what we might be seeing with ’09 contracts is at least partly a permanent reduction in the retail value of a win? We routinely talk about $4.5-5M per win as being the going rate for free agent wins, but I wonder if many of the clubs are gaining a clearer understanding that paying that rate for a win quickly leads to an unsupportable payroll. I am curious as to whether the only guys who will see that sort of win value going forward are the elite players and the ones who genuinely fill a need for a team on the verge of the playoffs.
Does anybody have data on the average value per win of FA contract so far this season?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
In case anyone hasn't ran across it yet
Pavlidis has a great post on Perez’s release points going on over at Beyond the Boxscore
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
Curious
Who/what does the Cardinals Maple Street Annual benefit financially?
I assume it goes to the Maple Street Press, but I guess I just don’t know who that actually is, other than what I can read in the “About You” section on their site.
I guess what I’m really curious about is whether the authors, including lboros and company, will receive any of my money. I’d like that after all the hard work they do around here.
Just wanted to stop by and say you all have a great site here.
Our goal is simple: Best in the land
Kill a fly with an axe -- Mickey Andrews
Why
Pujols is a reasonable guy (I think), he won’t walk away just because we don’t spend 150 million a year. I’m sure that he realizes that we are building for the future and we will be good very soon.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
that is the way it should be
Albert says that if the team shows it is dedicated to winning, he will stay. He also implicates that he will take a discount to stay here. I think it is a good thing that he comes out and says that; if the team doesn’t show that it wants to win, Albert should move on. Thankfully, I think the FO knows that it HAS to keep him here, so they should do the things to make him happy. I know I don’t want to see Albert playing out his career on mediocre team.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
by mattyfrommo on Feb 15, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see why
if we don’t win, I don’t expect him to want to stay and, to be frank, I’d rather see the Cards win than see Pujols remain in a Cards’ uni. The prospect of us not winning upsets me so Pujols’ playing for someone else would pale in comparison.
Personally, I think it sounds pretty good
“Do I want to be in St. Louis forever? Of course,” Pujols said. “People from other teams want to play in St. Louis and they’re jealous that we’re in St. Louis because the fans are unbelievable. So why would you want to leave a place like St. Louis to go somewhere else and make $3 or $4 more million a year? It’s not about the money. I already got my money. It’s about winning and that’s it.”
That’s what I want to hear.
It sounds good
If the youth movement works. Otherwise….
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 15, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Would you really want him to say...
1. I’ll go where the money is.
or
2. Hey, I’m here forever, no matter if everyone else around me stinks and looks like an Elvis impersonator.
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 16, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
in other words MO, sign ManRam
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i miss those
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
it makes me upset too
but i’m confident that he understands the direction the organization is heading. it’d really help out if some young guys like rasmus really pan out the way we hope, proving the future really is bright around these parts.
capital letters suck.
put your money where your mouth is, Albert
god knows i love you, but if you really, truly care more about winning than the $$$, offer to re-sign for $5M/year so we can use the other 20 or so that you’ll earn after 2011 to sign Webb or Sheets etc.
Wat, what’s that? You want the money AND teh winz? Well, Mo will try to accommodate you, but it might not be possible, considering that you are almost certainly going to be eating 25 percent of the team’s payroll in your decline years.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
psshaw
The Mang doesn’t do “decline years”
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
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