More Defense...Yay!
by chuckb on Feb 14, 2009 9:18 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintOn Thursday, they posted their best and worst OF arms over the last 3 years – which OFs have saved or cost their teams the most runs with their arms. Some of you won’t believe this, and others of you won’t like it, but guess whose name turned out #1 among OF arms over the last 3 years? The one, the only – Alfonso Soriano. It’s true. Soriano has saved his teams more than 25 runs over the last 3 years. Who’s been the worst? Brian Giles – costing the Pads nearly 20 runs over the same time period. From 2003-2005, Jim Edmonds was #1 in the bigs – saving Cards’ pitchers nearly 22 runs over that time period.
So what can we tell about our current array of Cards’ OFs? I’ve broken it up by OF position (damn, I love that site!). RngR is runs saved or, if negative, cost the team due to the OF’s range.
| POS | Year | Inn | ARM | RngR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludwick | RF | 2007 | 252.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Ludwick | RF | 2008 | 962.1 | 6.3 | -4.2 |
| Ankiel | RF | 2007 | 197.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Skip | RF | 2007 | 115.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| Duncan | RF | 2007 | 151.1 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Ankiel | CF | 2007 | 137 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| Ankiel | CF | 2008 | 766.1 | 2.8 | -6.4 | Skip | CF | 2008 | 552.2 | -2.4 | -2.3 |
| Edmonds | CF | 2007 | 828.1 | 1.6 | -2.7 |
| Duncan | LF | 2007 | 747 | 2.7 | -6.0 |
| Duncan | LF | 2008 | 321.1 | -3.2 | 1.5 |
| Mather | LF | 2008 | 124.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Ludwick | LF | 2007 | 324 | -0.6 | 6.3 |
| Ludwick | LF | 2008 | 169.2 | -0.2 | -2.5 |
| Ankiel | LF | 2008 | 131 | 0.1 | -3.3 |
| Skip | LF | 2007 | 122.2 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| Skip | LF | 2008 | 338.1 | 2.3 | 5.0 |
First of all, is Skip even an OF anymore? I don’t know. Ludwick’s ARM number was tied for 4th highest in the bigs last year. 6 runs a year w/ your arm is pretty stout. I’ve been assuming, particularly since this Skip-to-second thing started, that Colby would start in CF w/ Ankiel in RF and Ludwick in LF. Perhaps Ludwick should start in RF and Rick in LF considering the fact that Ludwick saves more runs w/ his arm even than Ankiel. We know, of course, about Ankiel’s huge arm but sometimes he lets it get the better of him – making throws he shouldn’t make or air-mailing Glaus or Yadi in an attempt to make something out of nothing. Would keeping him in LF harness him a little, thus leaving the threat w/o him having to use it so often? There’s little doubt that Rick’s number last year would have been a few runs higher if he wasn’t so erratic, both with his throws and his decision-making.
The other thing that’s noticeable from looking at the major league leader boards, both in terms of ARM runs saved and Range runs saved, is that the top defensive OFs in baseball can save 15-20, and maybe more than 20, runs per year just defensively. In other words, replacement level offensive OFs can be league-average OFs just by playing great defense. With Rasmus’ defensive reputation, it’s not unreasonable to think that he could be a 12-15 run defensive OF so that it won’t take that much for him to be a 2.5-3 WAR player w/ just decent offense as a rookie.
Last year, the best double play 2B in baseball was the Rays’ Akinori Iwamura. He was worth almost 2.5 runs to his team just in turning double plays. The worst – Cards’ alumnus Placido Polanco. That really surprises me, as he’s always had a good defensive reputation, and, overall, he was slightly better than league average in the field but he cost the Tigers more than 3 runs last year trying to turn the DP. By the way, the 2nd worst in the bigs turning the DP was Brian Roberts – a slightly below average 2B last year (in the field).
So how did our guys do? It should come as little surprise that Adam Kennedy was tied for 6th in the big leagues at turning the DP, saving Cards’ pitchers more than 1 run last year just in being able to turn the DP. Miles was minus 0.1 and Lopez minus 0.3 – basically league average turning the DP in ’08. Brendan Ryan, in 149 innings was minus 0.7 – not very good, but maybe it’s too small a sample on which to make a judgment.
At short, both Izturis and Khalil Greene were minus 0.5 runs turning the DP. Bobby Crosby was the best in the bigs w/ just over 3 runs saved turning the DP and Yunel Escobar was the worst, costing the Braves nearly 4 runs.
A lot of us are concerned about how well Skip will be able to turn the DP when live action begins, and with good reason, IMO. However, what should be evident is that the difference between the best and the worst fielders in the big leagues last year was about 5.5 runs at the keystone and 7 runs at short. It’s just more than half a win between the best and the worst. If Skip hurts the team defensively, it’s probably not going to be b/c he’s bad at turning the DP. It’s unlikely that he’ll help the team much here, but his inability to turn the DP won’t harm the team appreciably either.
In other news, actually there’s quite a lot of it over at the p-d, Derrick Goold’s got a good article up about the Cards’ non-roster invitees to camp. We know that Rasmus, Freese, and Wallace are part of that group, but it gives some pretty good info about some of the relievers and IFs converted to Cs as well as Jon Jay.
Joe Mather, as we knew a couple of weeks ago, is going to get some time at second this spring as well. Why not? No word yet from Tony on how many weeks it will take Mather to become a league average second baseman. I’d say it’ll probably happen by mid-April. First of May at the latest!
And, oh yeah, Mo’s been in contact w/ Izzy’s agent about a possible return in ’09. Too bad I can’t find the link. I think I gave up due to frustration w/ the possibility.
Lastly, check out the Maple Street Cardinals Annual (there’s now a link in the fanshots as well) and consider placing an order. As Dan told you yesterday, he’s got an article, redbaron’s got one, erik’s got one, Will Leitch from Deadspin and, I believe, Brian Gunn’s got one as well. Of course, our esteemed alumnus lboros put the whole thing together. Almost forgot – I’ve got one there too on Dave Duncan’s impact on Cards’ pitchers since his arrival. That, alone, will be worth the price of the magazine (or, if not, there’s other good stuff in there!).
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Very Interesting
From this I would guess that Skip should stay in LF and forget the whole 2b thing. Ludstick is the RF’er and Rick might just have a fight on his hands for the CF job.
I was not in favor of the Cards trading Rick cause I was not expecting Colby to make the team coming out of ST. I am now thinking trading Rick maybe the best way to help this club. I would favor a young pither if possible. If not then a MI’er. Skip should start in LF. Let Thruston platoon a 2B with Ryan or T.Greene.
If Rasmus struggles adjusting to major league (as I expect he will) it will not matter as much if he plays outstanding D.
Lf Skip
Cf Colby
1B Sir Albert
RF Ludstick
3B Freese/Glaus
SS K.G.
C Molina
P
2B Thurston/ Ryan/T.G.
Mather, Barton and Duncan can fill out the bench with LaRue. Mather can also back up in the Infield as well as the OF. Once Glaus returns Freese will have to find a spot. Maybe he will be demoted or the Cards will have to make room somewhere. Who knows maybe the bullpen will be so solid they can loose a man there.
If I remember correctly last year I predicted 86-87 wins and a wild card shot, and I was considered optimistic. I am going to go to 90 wins for 2009. I think this team will improve offensively, the bullpen will be stable, and Carp will contribute.
In the event that no trade is made with Rick that would not be a bad thing.
Ankiel
I agree trading Rick would be advantageous for the cards but I dont know if he has a market. I would hope there would be a young pitcher/shortstop available but that doesnt seem likely. Maybe if Rick rakes there will be opportunity at the deadline (Yankees?). Even if Rick were traded, I would still prefer Skippy at 2nd with Mather/Duncan/Barton with Rasmus and Ludwick. Skippy’s best bet for a long “prosperous” career is to stick at 2nd. If he can, he made himself a lot more money.
you might be right
That it is in Skip’s best interest to play Second, but is it in the teams best interest?
Why wouldnt it be?
There is a hole at 2nd and the Cards have a glut of outfielders. Seems to be a no brainer. Sorry if I am missing something.
Well,
his defensive replacements in LF are not as good, and Thurston could prove to be the better 2B’er. So I simply as the question that’s all. Who knows ST has yet to begin. Maybe Mather wins the LF spot out right. and Skip fights to stay on the roster. It will be an interesting spring! I wish I could go to Jupiter and check it first hand.
Basically the question is
whether Skip’s replacements in left are better than our second baseman. That is a no-brainer. Duncan, Mather, Ankiel and Barton all have to potential to be significantly better than Skip not to mention the fact that Jones, Wallace, Jay and maybe Craig may all be potential left fielders in the future.
At second we have a bunch of platoon players in there late 20’s who don’t figure to improve much. Schumaker at least has the ability to be better than that.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Even Better
Unless you’re trading him for PTBNL, you’re getting someone in return to plug into the lineup, probably a 2nd baseman who bats 1 or 2 (Roberts, K. Johnson) and that allows you to bat Rasmus lower in the lineup with less pressure until he gets some AB’s under his belt. I’m not a big proponent of sticking him in the 2 hole in front of Albert from Day 1 (unless he has some kind of rediculous Spring).
Or, I guess in your scenario, we could be trading for a young, cost-controlled, middle of the rotation starter, which would be even better. Assuming the deal lowers payroll, use the money to sign Hudson or Durham. Two birds (no pun intended) with one stone. OK, I guess it was intended a little bit.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
uh...re the numbers
if it isn’t over my head (but haplessly it probably is) I would like to get a better grasp of how this plus-or-minus run number is computed… moreover, by WHOM ?
Soriano, for instance: MY ex-player now butt chair self tells ME that if someone thinks Soriano is a good left fielder (or even has a good arm) either a) has never seen him play, and/or b) doesn’t know a lot about baseball.
And isn’t it an axiom that OF’s who rack up a lot of assists (just using a simple stat) aren’t necessarily the ones with great or even ‘good’ arms.
I am especially interested in WHO does the judging of the plays that eventually produce a bottom line number. Is it some geek sitting in the pressbox using calipers or something? Is he judging…“oh, he should have made a better throw there” or “he should have cut that one off” ?
MGL says:
I pretty much do the same thing as THT. Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. So a fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.
by greenback06 on Feb 14, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'd imagine
Soriano’s numbers are probably inflated because he creates oppurtunities for himself by booting so many fly balls. If guys are constantly circling the bases when you finally pick up the ball, you’re bound to throw some of them out.
What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray
It would seem
per the quote above (thnx greenback) that Soriano wouldn’t necessarily benefit from those opportunities over anyone else as both would get credit for runners who did not advance or even attempt to advance. It would be interesting to know if the “credit” is weighted in some way (ie more credit for an assist than a held runner, etc.). But more opportunities alone would not account for Soriano’s performance.
-- Aidan Sonoda
In necessariis unitas, in dubiis libertas, in omnibus caritas.
by Aidan Sonoda on Feb 14, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
exactly my question
opportunites and indeed any of the other raw stats are only a part of the bottom line, I assume. I’m guessing somewhere along the line there is some subjectivity going on.
And I not only do not know how this subjectivity plays in to the ultimate equation, but I am also suspicious of it.
hrm.
As a natural skeptic I wholeheartedly agree with your suspicion of subjectivity. However, my interpretation of the above from MGL is that this system does NO evaluation of individual plays at all. Instead counting the outcomes of general types of plays only (ie a ball hit in to the gap with a runner on 2nd). As such it would avoid the “subjectivity” of saying when a defender should or should not have “made a play” by assuming that on average each fielder will see the same number of difficult and easy plays over the course of a complete season. So it simply counts up the outcomes over a whole season of plays: how many runners advanced / were thrown out / etc.
Now you could argue about whether or not that’s a good way to measure such things, but I don’t think you can blame it on some geek not understanding the athletic realities of the game. I think it is fair to assume that Alfonso Soriano’s job is the same as Chris Duncans. They both play left field in the Major Leagues and over the course of a season they face the same challenges. Regardless of the difficulty of any specific play. And you can therefore compare their performance numbers. Again on any specific play one outfielder might face an extreme challenge or a routine one but over the course of a few hundred plays that should all even out.
-- Aidan Sonoda
In necessariis unitas, in dubiis libertas, in omnibus caritas.
by Aidan Sonoda on Feb 14, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
agree with most of what you said, except:
“over the course of a few hundred plays that should all even out.”
The seasonal sample size isn’t a few hundred; i’d guess that it’s more like 50, at most. And I’d be very surprised if “a few hundred” is all it took to work most of the “luck” out of the measurements. Best case, maybe “it all evens out” if you have the results of 4+ seasons to look at, but a single season doesn’t give you the data you need to make the evaluation.
I really, really don’t like using these stats to measure “value”. First thing they teach you in stats 101 is that bad data is worse than no data at all, and I’ve seen nothing that tells me the noise level has even been established, much less accounted for.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Fair enough
I have no idea how one would calculate the needed sample size for a required confidence level in sampling of this kind. So I can’t refute your argument in any mathematically sound way. I agree that the average outfielder probably makes less than 50 each of any particular type of play in a season. Still my gut tells me that over the course of a season, playing left field is playing left field. That doing it, say for the Pirates in 2006 or the Cardinals in 2008 would not be significantly more or less difficult than any other left field job an athlete might encounter.
*unusual stadium design aside – Fenway
-- Aidan Sonoda
In necessariis unitas, in dubiis libertas, in omnibus caritas.
by Aidan Sonoda on Feb 14, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
isn't four seasons a bit extreme?
Tangotiger wrote that there is so much noise in even the best proprietary zone-based fielding data that one really needs at least two years of full-time UZR ratings to get a reliable rating.
Who knows?
Just because John Smith or whatever that guy’s name is says you need at least 2 years, that doesn’t mean that 2, 3 or 4 is enough. There isn’t any evidence that UZR can provide a reliable rating ever.
2 years for UZR data
but there are probably 5-10 times as many “fielding” data points as there are “arm” data points, in a season, and I’d wager that the variance in “arm” is higher than the variance in you typical fielding metric, meaning you need even more data points to have the same confidence.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
gotcha.
check out the discussion here, re: sample size and ARM stats. i’m curious if you agree or no.
well
looks like tango is saying it’s EASIER to establish “arm” skill level than “catching” skill level. I think he’s got it backwards, but he’s 1000 times smarter and better educated than I am (in statistical analysis) AND has better tools etc, so if he says it, I’m very hesitant to argue.
Except that, intuitively, it just feels wrong. I like the example peter jensen gives in #15.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
what he's saying I think, is that there's a bigger disparity in
arm strength, while other statistics tend to be closer.
imagine if somebody told you to find whether it was colder in st. louis or in baltimore and you chose to do it by selecting days at random and looking at the temperatures on that day. you’d need a lot of days to figure it out, because the temperatures are so close.
now imagine that somebody told you to find whether it was colder in fairbanks or miami, using the same method. while you might need to look at 300 days to find a meaningful difference between st. louis and baltimore, you’d probably only need 30 to find a meaningful difference between fairbanks and miami.
the statistical distinction is easier to find, because the underlying disparity is more dramatic. the difference between a bad arm and a good arm is more dramatic, while the difference between a good catching fielder and a bad catching fielder is less dramatic. that’s what he’s saying.
and also a comment from tangotiger:
Roughly speaking, you need twice as many games on fielding to get the same reliability as on hitting. So, if you want to judge the range in UZR numbers after 50-60 games, look at OBP and SLG numbers after 25-30 games. That’s the context you need to appreciate.
What about reputation...
It is possible that more teams run on Alfie giving him more chances sue to the perception he is a poor outfielder.
Ank on the other hand could have less chances. I mean after that highlight reel where he threw out to speedy runners at third who would run on him?
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
these numbers
are not based strictly on assists. Assists help, but it also helps when runners refuse to run on a player. I suspect, as I said above, that what hurts Ankiel is his lack of accuracy. Players will run on him and, while he’ll get some, he won’t get others and some of those will become errors on overthrows. Sometimes he also throws to the wrong base and that allows other runners to move up. He has the strongest arm in our OF, but not the best, as the numbers indicate.
Exactly
And that is what made JEd so great. He didn’t have the best/strongest arm but he always threw it to the right base and he was always in good throwing posistion when he made a catch allowing for his great accuracy.
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
ankiels hold+ of 126
led mlb outfielders in 08. the words out, apply the breaks, lol. (thehardballtimes.com)
by ball in play on Feb 14, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yes I thought he prevented alot of players from feeling comfortable enough to try to advance on him.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
izzy
strauss interview on 1380 indicates izzy potential signing . . . link on mlbtraderumors
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
That's it
I’m drinking antifreeze.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 14, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The even worst part is
Who’s spot is he going to take?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 14, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully no one claims him
Cause he is out of options for Memphis
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 14, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
thanks
had been wondering about that. i saw where brian walton has said brendan ryan is out of options, and barden is not.
by ball in play on Feb 14, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
why no love for PK?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i'm sorry, that sucks. T's & P's
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Yay!
Spring training starts today. The long annual drought is over. Anybody seen paparazzi pics of pitchers getting out of their cars in Jupiter?
Baseball Fever.... Catch it!
Schumaker
may not end up being the 2B but I really like the possibility of the line-up with him at 2B. I am one that really wanted him to be given a chance last year and he proved to be very good except his ability to hit lefties.
To me he is a “winner” and I don’t mean world series rings, etc. I mean he has great work ethic, a team oriented player, and I believe he will do whatever it takes to get the job done. Besides he just looks like a second baseman to me. His hands and his abiltiy to turn the DP will be the question marks. His arm should be a real plus in several ways. I am anxiously waiting to see that first DP turn and throw. I think that will define how effective he will be.
No one has much to say about Mather and I think he is someone who could find himself playing somewhere. The outfield is going to be very interesting but I think that Ankiel and Ludwick are locks with Rasmus and Duncan battling for the other spot. Ankiels versatility will allow the Cards to go with either player but Duncan is going to have to really rake to off-set the defensive difference. If he does then I think you will see Rasmus back in Memphis with a Mather / Duncan platoon in LF and an Ankiel trade if Rasmus produces in Memphis and shows he is ready. If Rasmus wins the job for the Cards then Duncan and Mather end up as the bench guys backing up 3B 1B and LF and RF.
I think Skip wins the 2B job and platoons with Ryan. Ryan backiing up SS and starting against lefties would make the most sense to me.
skip
provides true grit, but what do we call him since grit is out?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I Wonder what they take into consideration..
Glancing at Fangraphs’ site I didn’t see any explanation of how they come up with their numbers on ARM. I’m not doubting them (I’m definitely not qualified to do so), I’m just wondering what they take into consideration.
Does it include things like “Secret Weapon holds Pujols at third because Soriano fielded it cleanly” kinda stuff, or is it strictly outfield assists and such?
Baseball Fever.... Catch it!
Speaking of Arms..
Ankiel was joking around with Derrick Goold about Skip playing second…
"Now I get to watch Skip play second base," Ankiel joked. "I was waiting for that," Skip Schumaker said from his nearby locker."If you guys can show me a better relay combo," Ankiel said, "I want to see it." Without missing a beat, outfielder Chris Duncan, sandwiched between the two teammates, chirped: "Me and Eckstein."
It’s certainly springtime.
I hope he is passable at 2B
because our lineup with him in it is ridiculous.
OBP SLG
Skip .360 .405
Colby .350 .400
El Hombre .450 .600
Ludwick .350 .550
Glaus .360 .500
Ankiel .330 .520
Greene .320 .420
Pitcher .250 .300
Molina .350 .400
That lineup scores 5.527 runs per game which is almost 900 runs a season! For prospective, that would put us 1st in the NL when compared to 2008. Does anybody think my projections are off?
A tad optimistic, but pretty close
However, you can’t assume that all of these guys will play every day. We will probably see a fair amount of playing time from Freese, Barden/Ryan/Thurston, Mather, LaRue and Duncan/Barton.
If you are serious about projecting the offense for next year, you should do it by the cumulative at bats for position, because that would allow you to use the bench players accordingly.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
The odds
I would put the odds of Skip leaving spring training as an average defensive second baseman as roughly the same as Joaquin Phoenix making the successful transition to hip-hop.
And I say England's greatest prime minister was Lord Palmerston.
by tangledbrett on Feb 14, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Molina's and Ankiel's
are way too high. Skip’s is too high, probably Glaus’s and Ludwick’s SLG is too high.
Ankiel's
doesn’t seem that high. He was hitting much better than that before he got injured and his overall season line was basically what MattK had, give or take some OBP and Slugging% points.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
meh, skip was better than that last year
and i’ll be shocked if ankiel is worse than that. I think glaus is too high though. Luddy, Colby and greene are wild cards. Albert too, but only because he might get hurt and also might put up a 200 OPS+ season.
Agree on Molina, though he may have a breakout season coming up. He’s getting to be the right age.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Ank could be that good
if he stays healthy for once , and if his ab injury is completely healed.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
skip at SS (it's even his initials, that gotta mean something, right?)
Mather at 2B, power infield
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 14, 2009 3:26 PM EST reply actions
very informative article
interesting… I am still thinking Ankiel will improve in the OF this year. I think we’ll see him at all 3 outfield positions over the course of the season.
It will be very interesting to see if Skip or Mather are the better 2B!
I wonder how Mather and Barton would stack up in such ratings.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 14, 2009 3:31 PM EST reply actions
i think the lone ranger
would be after his ass pronto
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
who is that?
schumaker? ankiel? barden? Whoever it is looks like he needs some cheap sunglasses.
Love Duncan’s lumberjack look, though.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Ankiel, it's it obvious?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
It will be really interesting to see what materializes here...
Good article.
If we have a team of players that can at multiple positions will Tony eclipse his own personal record of lineups used?
I think I made a mistake – that was a statement.
if colby is coming your way
just exit right duncan. PLEASE !!!
Should ARM and RngR be independent?
Good stuff, Chuckb.
Here is the fangraphs def for Rngr
RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.
So shouldn’t RngR be correlated with ARM since an OF with a better range can setup for the throw better (positionally, directionally, distance-wise, etc…)? I did a quick check with Chuckb’s data for the Cards, and it actually came out to be -0.34. Maybe it was spurious. I should use league-wide data to really test this.
I think this just goes to show that I don’t quite understand either metric. I thought they were supposed to be independent in order to capture specific aspects of OF D (e.g. in case we want to perform regression). I guess even if they were not fully independent, they are still valuable in trying to quantify different aspects of OF D.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
logjams
i suspect colby starts in center in memphis and motte is the closer in memphis if they haven’t moved an outfielder and a right-handed reliever respectively.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
If Motte is in Memphis
and Izzy is in StL then I will have to find something else to do in 2009.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
+1
Motte is 26, throws 100 mph AND throws strikes. Sound like a guy who should be on a major league team.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
And what makes him so good is that he also doesn't walk anyone
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Feb 14, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
hence the "AND throws strikes"
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don't have a problem
with giving Izzy a chance. The guy was a decent closer 2 years ago. Our shortstop hasn’t been any good any more recently than that and not one of our 2b options have EVER been good in the majors. But he should have to be really dealing in practice before he takes any playing time from others in Sprint Training. And he should better be throwing up zeros in ST before they even consider trying him in a real game.
The only problem I have with this is if he gets opportunities without performance.
-- Aidan Sonoda
In necessariis unitas, in dubiis libertas, in omnibus caritas.
by Aidan Sonoda on Feb 14, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
The main difference
is Izzy is OLD. He is coming off yet another injury and looked pretty weak last year even when he wasn’t hurt. And anyone who is at all honest about this knows Izzy will get opportunities regardless of performance. Take Tony’s toys away from him – it is the only way to minimize the damage.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
By all mean, we should bring Izzy back
I mean, he really isn’t all that bad.
I also think we should look into bringing back Kip Wells to solidify the rotation.
Gregatron is not responsible for any of the crap he just wrote.
Don't forget Sidney Ponson
and we could sure use Preston Wilson’s bat.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
now that is just being unfair to Preston
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
by mattyfrommo on Feb 14, 2009 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
This is shaping up to be the worst off season in recent memory
Traded for the worst SS in baseball last year- Check
Resign your #4 starter to a 4 year contract – Check
Don’t sign a new Starting Pitcher – Check
Get scrap heap LOOGY’s – Check
Release Kennedy and eat his salary – Check
Resign Izzy to be our Closer – Check
Stat Whore
glad to see you are keeping an open mind.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
I have a slightly different take on it
Traded for a guy who was one of the best shortstops in baseball in 07 and who we got for a AAA reliever who didn’t have a future with the team- Check
Resign our #2 starter to a 4 year contract that actually underpays him based on his performance over the last 2 years- Check
Allow Boggs and McClellan to earn a spot in the rotation instead of overpaying for Perez/Garland who suck
Get a solid assortment of LOOGYs who are projected to be much better than last year’s LOOGYs
Release a player who wanted to be the starter even though he didn’t deserve it, only after exploring all trade options and coming up with NOTHING- Check
Resign Izzy to a minor league deal (probably) to provide depth and a veteran leadership to our young closers- Check
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You are one of those
“half full” people, aren’t you? BTW, Greene was only “one of the best shortstops in baseball in ’07” if you count having the 11th highest value in the game, as being “one of the best.”
And, Flim — Greene was the 2nd worst SS in baseball last year. Jeff Keppinger was worse.
Ok
Maybe I was wrong about Greene in 07 (I didn’t realize how bad his OBP was), but can you honestly say that any of my other statements aren’t true?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
sure I can
I just didn’t feel like it at the time.
I don’t buy that stuff about Izzy’s “veteran leadership” and I don’t think bad pitchers provide depth unless you’re talking about how deep the you-know-what is when your pen gives up crooked numbers late in the game.
The market has proven that the Lohse signing was premature and that he received more years and more dollars than he should have. He’s also a #4 starter masquerading as a #2 on our staff.
Perez and Garland suck. That’s true and I’d much rather see what Boggs and McClellan offer.
The jury’s still out on the LOOGY’s but I’m optimistic they won’t be any worse than Johnson and Flores were last year.
And I’ve said multiple times that Kennedy was the best 2B on our roster. That made him deserving of the starter’s position, at least against RHP. Was he very good? No but he was the best we had.
BTW, you neglected to mention the PTBNL in the Greene trade. We, of course, don’t know who that’ll be just yet but, until we do, it’s premature to say what a great trade it was.
Kennedy
was the best second baseman we had on our roster, but Tony didn’t feel that way. Tony didn’t want to hand the starting job to Kennedy out of the gate because he didn’t feel that he deserved it. He wanted to have a competition at the bag to find out who was going to be the man and if Kennedy had a good spring than I’m sure that he would have been the starter.
The problem was that Kennedy had stated publicly that he wanted to be the starter or to be traded. What would you do if you were Tony? Management tried to trade him. I’m sure that they exhausted every last trade option before flat out releasing, it’s not like there that stupid. Obviously it would have made sense to at least keep Kennedy during ST for insurance, but I’m sure that Kennedy wouldn’t have liked playing backup. Therefore, the only logical course would be too cut ties with him early on to at least give him a chance to make it with another club. Of course that is just my opinion, but that seems to be what has happened here.
Also I never said that the Greene trade was great move. In fact I didn’t like it that much when it was first announced. I like Greene, I think that he will have a good year. But it is a pretty safe bet that he will be gone after 09. I would have liked the FO to make a deal for an Escobar or someone who will be the long term answer at short, instead of just another rental.
Furthermore Lohse was a #2 last year. Using FIP, Lohse was had a very similar season to guys like Matt Cain, Mark Buerhle and Andy Sonnastine. He was indeed as good as he looked last year. I never said that it was a good contract (Lohse will probably regress) but using WAR it looks solid.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 15, 2009 2:20 AM EST up reply actions
Moses speaks from Mountain
And I’ve said multiple times that Kennedy was the best 2B on our roster.
Just because you assert it, doesn’t make it so.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 16, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Well it is true
But that doesn’t mean that we should have released him. See my above comment.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 16, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
sign two aging, injured starters to roster-choking salaries
that ruin the team for years to come . . . . oh wait, that was some other off-season.
sometimes the best move is no move.
Wow...
put down the lady Bic.
It’s not that bad man…close, but not that bad.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
check mate...I still hope
I should feel giddy getting at least three of the four NO wishes I had for the off-season: I wanted no Lopez, check; no Izturis, check; no Kennedy, check; and (here’s the nail-biter) no Izzy.
So, I should be happy and I guess I am. But this recent talk of Interesinghausen having even a snow ball’s chance in thunder of being on the roster has me holding my breath. Too many angst memories that go deeper and longer than any of the other three caused, even.
well this is nice, Tony thinks there should be a zero tolerance policy for drugs
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Hopefully Pinata is pumping up
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
I often feel that
there should be a zero tolerance for Tony.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
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