The Keymaster and the Gatekeeper
by chuckb on Feb 12, 2009 7:00 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintI’ve said nearly all I have to say about the Kennedy release but it’s happened and so now it’s time to look forward. Kennedy wasn’t a great player. Hell, it’s tough to argue that he was even a good player but he was a decent player (1.7 WAR) last season and was the best 2B on the roster so it was a peculiar move, at best. And as I said Sunday, based on Chone’s projections it was difficult to stomach the notion that either Skip Schumaker or Joe Mather was going to become our new 2B.
That said, I’m going to draw your attention to another opinion on the subject – one which, to some degree, disagrees with the conclusion I drew Sunday. R.J. Anderson, over at fangraphs, sees the Skip Schumaker experiment as one that truly bear fruit. His assumptions are different than mine, to the degree that I went w/ Chone’s projections and he assumed that Skip would have a similar offensive season to the one he had last season. To me, that’s a bit of a stretch as it seems to me that the increased responsibilities of learning 2B on the fly are likely to take some sort of toll in the batter’s box but it’s certainly possible that Skip might repeat his strong offensive showing of 2008. If he does, R.J. asserts that Skip can be a pretty bad defensive player (likely, IMO) and still be about as valuable as Kennedy. My assumption, based on Chone’s projections, are that Kennedy would have to be about a league-average fielder in order to be roughly as valuable as Kennedy. R.J. though, is correct – if Skip does perform offensively the way he did last season, we could probably stomach his horrendous defense at second and be ok.
It’s worth noting, also, that Skip had about twice as many PAs vs. lefties last year than Kennedy. Since both are absolutely awful against southpaws, and would need a platoon at second anyway, getting fewer PAs against lefties would probably increase Skip’s value a little (provided he can be replaced w/ a competent hitter against lefties). I suppose the point is, if Skip’s offense is good enough, this might actually work – provided that Tony can stomach continuing to run him out there and play what I expect will be awful defense. Let’s face it – any defense he provides that is better than awful will be a tremendous coup for the team.
Additionally, I absolutely cannot abide the notion that the team, by releasing Kennedy, is "letting the kids play." To me, this is a laughable notion. Yes, all the players who may replace him are younger than Kennedy, but the only 2 guys that we might generously refer to as "kids" (T. Greene and Hoffpauir) have next to no shot at winning the job. Right now the contenders seem to be Skip (29 years old), Brendan Ryan (27 next month), Brian Barden (28 in April), and Joe Thurston (29). They’re not kids at all. It’s not like we’re turning the position over to our 21 year old top prospect who may not quite be ready yet. These guys, save Skip, are replacement level ballplayers who happen to be younger than Kennedy. This isn’t a youth movement; it’s trial by fire.
That said, it appears to me as though Skip is the only contender who really has a chance to turn this into a positive. If he does hit well, and fields ok, we may have a young, cheap, 2-3 year solution at the position. At least there’s some excitement with the prospect of seeing what he can do. The others will just be holding down the fort until we can find someone better. Any of them might make a pretty good utility infielder, but there’s no reason to believe that they’re an everyday solution.
The guy I’ve always had an affinity for, as I indicated here about 16 months ago, is Jarrett Hoffpauir. His numbers always made him seem like a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia and, if you read the post above, there are (were?) a lot of similarities. The major difference is that it always took a while for Hoffpauir to get adjusted to the league and that’s why he moved more slowly through the system than Pedroia did Boston’s. Then Hoffpauir seemed to stall last season in AAA. His BB rate is pretty good and he doesn’t strike out very often but he’s just going to have to have more pop than he displayed in the PCL to stick as an everyday solution in the bigs. Add to that the fact that Hoffpauir was probably a horrible fielder in ’08 and he’s probably just not going to make it. He’s the one I’m pulling for, though. I hope he can make it but it’s probably an irrational hope.
So seeing as how last year’s opening day RF – a guy who has exactly 6 games of infield experience (at 3B, no less) since being a freshman in college -- is our roster’s best option at 2B, let’s see what is out there on the free agent market. At this point, there are really 3 options – Orlando Hudson, Mark Grudzielanek, and Ray Durham. Each absolutely destroys the "playing the kids" meme but, as I said, so does going w/ any of the other guys. With their market values likely dropping, what is each worth on the market?
First of all, Hudson has averaged about 2.4 WAR the last 3 seasons and was nearly a 2 win player in ’08 despite playing just 107 games. That he’s still on the market is pretty surprising really. Chone has him pegged for about 4 wRAA offensively and about 3 runs defensively in ’09. That’s 7 runs above average, add 2.5 for position and 20 for replacement level and that projects Hudson as about a 3 win player in ’09 – worth $14-15 M. Even if we put him at the 2.4 WAR average of the last 3 years, that places his value at about $11 M. It’s true that he’d cost us a 1st round pick, but what if we could sign him for 2 years and $14 M. That’s worth relinquishing the first pick (probably). The key is this: would management see Kennedy’s $4M as a sunk cost or would they view it as part of the cost of his replacement? In other words, if we sign Hudson to a 2 year, $14 M contract, would management see that as $11 M this year and $7 M next year for $18 total? Add in the cost of the 1st rounder and it’s probably not worth it. Do we really want to spend $11 M + a first rounder this year for Hudson?
What about Grudzielanek – a Cards’ fan favorite ever since having such a good year here in 2005. Grudz has averaged about 2.3 WAR the last 3 seasons – almost as good as Hudson – but produced just 1.6 last year (slightly less than Kennedy). Considering the fact that Grudz turns 39 before the All-Star break, was his drop last year a consequence of his age? It’s gotta be a concern. Chone seems to think so, projecting him at minus 11 wRAA next year and +3 defensively. Minus 8 + the positional adjustment and the adjustment for replacement level and we’ve got a projection for about 1.45 WAR – likely less than Kennedy. Would that make sense? Pay Grudzielanek AND Kennedy so that Grudz can be worse than Kennedy would’ve been? To me, it doesn’t. If last year was an aberration and he really is a 2.3 WAR player, that makes him worth about $10 – 10.5 M. The extra win would probably be worth bringing him on board for $4 M or so.
The last guy is Durham. Eric Seidman over at fangraphs wrote a pretty favorable thread about Durham a couple of days ago. He concluded that Durham is probably a 2 WAR player next year – exactly league average – and, therefore, worth about $9M on the market. We could probably sign him for $3-4 M and come out ahead. Seidman, however, predicates his conclusion on Durham as being a league average defender. Chone disagrees – projecting him at a ghastly minus 11 defensively. They’ve also got him at minus 1.5 offensively so that makes him about a 1 win player – worth about what Kennedy would’ve been paid to produce another .5 to 1 wins. However, over the last 6 years, UZR/150 has Durham as about a league average defender so, couple that w/ league average offense, and we’re talking about a 2 win player who we could sign for what Kennedy is earning or slightly less. Now, he’s 37 so he’s no spring chicken but he’s gotta be better than Ryan, Thurston, Barden, et al. To me, it doesn’t really make a lot of sense to pay more money to Hudson + a first rounder when we could probably get close to that production from Durham, all the while saving the first rounder.
Matthew Leach speculates that maybe the real plan for Schumaker is to get Schumaker a little experience at the keystone in 2009 in preparation for his taking over the job in 2010. A Ray Durham signing would facilitate that – giving us close to league average production in 2009 while seeing if Skip could possibly take over thereafter. It’s an interesting idea, and one that might bear fruit for the next 3 years or so.
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I just don't believe
Skip is going to be our second baseman at all, and yet the idea that he’ll play second is the central assumption to all of these conversations.
My prediction is that our 2009 2B is not currently a Cardinal, nor is he one of the FAs you’ve mentioned above.
Who's on 2B?
So who is your mystery player?
Kelly Johnson?
Brian Roberts?
Polanco?
Lots of speculation out there but I’m betting on an in-house replacement. It’ll be the cheapest option.
OK, I'll go a little
way out on the limb with my general prediction, but no farther! =D
[Though I’d love to have Roberts on my team. I expect that to happen the same week Congress gives me my pony.]
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 12, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
screw the pony, i want a pegicorn
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I say Kelly Johnson
The Braves seem to be the best trade partner for one Mr. Rick Ankiel. I think a straight up trade Johnson for Ankiel may help the Cards a ton both up the middle, and free up a spot for Rasmus.
I hate to say it but this may be the best idea. My question though is what
can we expect out of Kelly Johnson as far as production and defense that would make you part with a gold glove caliber outfielder with 40 homerun potential?
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
We have 6
or so guys that will get a look. If they all look bad there could be a trade of FA signing. I really think they will give this a try. Who knows, but I would bet on Skip or Thurston. If Thurston gets the job we will have all sorts of gilligan’s island references.
It certainly be an interesting spring now.
My proposal
Sign Durham or Grudk. If Skip doesn’t look awful out there in spring training then start the season out with a platoon. Then if it becomes obvious at some point that Skip just can’t handle the position you can roll with Durham or Grudk every day and hopefully figure out something better for 2010. I think that even if Skip does work out he will always benefit from having a platoon partner, but fortunately righty-hitting utility infielders do grow on trees.
Skip platooning at best
Skip might see 20 starts at 2B if he can handle the position at FLopez level. TLR will play match ups depending on who is pitching for both us and the opponent. Think Sunday get away games after clinching a series. There is no chance that Skip matches the 74 games Kennedy started last year.
IMO the roster construction target is to improve the bench with superior offensive players who can play both OF and replacement level IF. Last year’s model of four MIF provided superior defense and flexibility for starters but lack any punch off the bench or in the starting lineup. In 273 plate appearances last year, PH’s in 2008 had ba/obp/ops of .239/.302/.374. Since TLR bats for the pitcher at least once a game, a stronger offensive bench through better roster construction should increase these numbers.
Orlando Cabrera is still a FA too....
Now that Dunn and Abreu are off the table, the Braves will probably look to trade for an outfielder if they want something better than Griffey/Anderson/Edmonds. Of course ManRam is still out there but the Braves probably can’t afford him.
but we'll also
be competing against the Yankees with Nady and Swisher who they are willing to move as well as possibly Dye
in the spirit of competition
production aside, ATL’d probably like ankiel’s contract over the others: Nady $6.5 million in 09; Swisher $5.3, $6.75, $9 and $10.25 over the next 4 years (wow- who wrote that contract?); Dye $11 million in 09.
Ankiel will make $2.35 or $3.3 million in 09, unless a late deal puts him somewhere between the two figures.
by baked mcbride on Feb 12, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
we can afford ManRam
we just don’t want to
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Joe Thurston
Im excited about seeing what Joe Thurston can do. Here’s a guy who has always posted decent numbers in the minors over the years (.765 OPS for a 2nd baseman) yet has only played in 60 games at the big league level (less than stellar, obviously). He’s got speed and has shown a little pop in the minors, so I’d like to see what he can do in an extended period in the show. We seem to be pretty successful at these reclamation projects with position players (Ludwick, Spezio, Womack, etc.)
yeah
maybe he’ll want to finally prove himself at the big league level and scrap his way into a grit role
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
there' something quite sad about this sentence
“Durham is probably a 2 WAR player next year – exactly league average – and, therefore, worth about $9M on the market.”
I’ve often wondered whether value per WAR has been inflated by huge Yankee contracts. But it’s just as bad when KC pays ridiculous amounts for Farnsworth or when Bavasi overpaid for any number of free agents. Hopefully the times of retarded contracts have stopped, save for the Stinks, and millions paid per WAR will become more reasonable.
Also, I think Skippy still used McGwire as a hitting instructor this offseason. Worked pretty well last year, so perhaps more reason to believe he can maintain his offensive stats.
League average $$$
The huge numbers for league average players is exactly why it is now so important for the farm system to produce at least league average players. $9M for a league average 2nd baseman, $10M for a league average starting pitcher. People always complain about the Cards taking safe picks in the early rounds in the draft, but if someone like Lance Lynn can be a servicable #4-5 pitcher for 4-5 years, he will save us $30-35M that we can spend on our main guys (Pujols, WW, etc.)
by thp0344 on Feb 12, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
hopefully Big Mac got him to stop rolling over to 2nd
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
2bags
our 2 bagger will be a platoon.. tlr cannot stand not to figit with the lineup/re matchups.. which means anyone with a infielders mitt could be playing the position..
i am hopeful… that possibly MO turns one of our surplus outfielders dunc/ank/mather into a suitable option at second base.. i really think everyone is underrating the ankiel potential.. if he stays healthy… he will hit 35 bombs.. you dont give that away for a marginal 2 bagger…
also .. we dont need a 2b on opening day… we need him by june 1st.. the defense by the platoons wont cost us that many games the first 2 months of the season.. by then , the outfield logjam will dissolve thru a trade or two..
when I read that
I thought you were saying you were hopeful that Dunc/Ank/Mather would be at 2nd. I shuddered when I thought about Dunc playing 2nd. It would be comical for one game!
Screw 2B
let’s just play 3 IF’er and 4 OF’ers. With our rotation, were gonna need ’em! :D
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 12, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions
agreed
looking for inspiration in the failure of others is always a losing game in the long run……..but……since that’s all we have at the moment
at least we’re not the Brewers…….replacing Sabathia/Sheets with Looper
or
the Astros…..looking for hope from Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz
wonder what their fans are saying about that?
Almost a 4th OF
Skip should play 2nd back on the grass like Belliard did. Pujols loves to come over and cut off those slow rollers anyway.
by hit and run on Feb 12, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
i miss that pudgy lil thug, i really do
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Barring something totally unforeseen
on the trade market, I am pretty convinced that TLR will anoint Skip as the 2B regardless of his performance. He will either be a genius if it works out or it will be the front office’s fault if it doesn’t. If it isn’t working out he will trot him out there anyway out of loyalty and a desire to embarrass the FO a la Kennedy and Miles in the OF, Floppy at 2B, etc.
I think there is less than a 10% chance that Skip actually will play the position well enough to merit PT, but TLR will see what he wants to see.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Wow indeed.
Look, we all know TLR can be petty now and then, but you’re describing a pretty shocking level of pettiness (sabotaging the team for spite). No way he would do that, just on principle, not to mention that he’d risk losing the rest of the team at the same time. And, it’s disrespectful to the game, and TLR really does follow a code of honor in that respect.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 12, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
you mean like playing adam kennedy and aaron miles in the outfield repeatedly?
by tom s. on Feb 12, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In Kennedy's case.
LaRussa was trying to drive up his trade value.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Do you really think
that any other MLB team would have considered Adam Kennedy’s ability to play the OF as a factor in assessing his value?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Versatitliy is an asset.
Now I’m not saying that Kennedy was ever going to have much of a trade value, but he wanted traded and it was in their best interest to try to create as much trade value for him they could possibly create. Turns out, you can’t polish a turd (well, at least this turd), but there are some pretty dumb ass GMs out there and if seeing him in the outfield would have convinced one of them to actually give something up and take on more than the league minimum, then that would have been a coup.
Don’t forget, Jim Hendry has promoted Aaron Miles’ ability to play 7 defensive positions when he justified the DeRosa trade and Miles pickup to cubbie fans. Now, I’m not sure what 7 defensive positions Aaron can play, and to Hendry’s credit he never said Miles could play any of those positions well, but that’s what part of the thought process entailed.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Yeah
I guess it may have been worth a try even though it certainly wasn’t the best strategy to try and actually win a game. Still, I’ll be surprised if he ever plays OF again – if he ever plays again.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
7 is selling Mini Me short
those wee little bears will need him to pitch too
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I thought the same thing when I heard it.
Figured the position they were leaving out (saying he couldn’t play, besides pitcher) was catcher but, hell, I’d let the gritty little bastard catch. If Oquendo can do it, I’m pretty sure Miles could get ’er done.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
No, not like that.
Neither were great shakes out there, but mediocre outfield defense is less costly than mediocre middle-infield defense. Plus we’re talking about June here, not September when the team’s out of the running.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 12, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Just curious, but...
are you seriously contending that Aaron Miles and Adam Kennedy were “league average” outfielders?
Because that’s what your use of “mediocre” implies. Personally, I take issue with that, as I find it hard to believe they are as good defensively as the “average” real MLB outfielder. (Anecdotally, a couple of the plays I saw them try to make seems to reinforce that, too…)
In the absense of metrics (obviously) or even sufficient anecdotal evidence, I would probably use “sub-par” or “below average” for their assumed OF defense rather than “mediocre.” Just sayin’…
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
In answer to your
question, no. Perhaps I should have said “sucky,” although “suboptimal” is my favorite euphemism lately.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 13, 2009 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
While I may be describing
something that you and I might call sabotage, I don’t think TLR would see it that way. He would have some wisdom that he would be dismissively certain of that would justify his actions in his mind. Skip is one of his favorites and a core value of his code of honor is to show loyalty to his favorites. Why else would he play Izzy, Duncan, and Ankiel when even the most casual fan could see they were hurt/ineffective? I doubt he would call it sabotage whether that was the net effect or not.
I certainly don’t think he will use any value system we can be privy to, or make any sense of, when evaluating Skip’s effectiveness in the field.
I hope I am wrong, but I think the only thing that can save us is if Skip actually does defy the odds and play a passable 2B. Or if MO obtains a serviceable replacement.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Just got done reading Inflated Ego Live
Yeah, I don’t why I’d subject myself to that. But, like the idiot I am, I did. In his usual high-minded way he expressed a logical and reasonable reason people may disagree with his assessment that Skip won’t stick at second.
All this Skip-at-Second talk makes the ChatMeister believe that Meth labs are springing up like Starbucks around the Bi-State region. Come on!!!
Stay Classy St. Louis……………oh, and If he’s wrong.
If Skip’s the ODay second baseman, the ChatMeister promises to do a month’s penance writing BirdLand.
Well my fellow El Vivi Birders, I do believe that is a threat. It’s also bitch slap to one of his colleagues. Once again Joe, Classy.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Feb 12, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions
No Kidding
keep him away from the best thing the Post Dispatch has going for it – Goold’s blog.
+1000
Wait, maybe that’s not enough, + infinity!
i find joe to be pretty funny. i think he has a tongue in his cheek most of the time, and i figure the birdland crack is just friendly razzing between the desk jocks.
by infallibleopiniongenerator on Feb 12, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
This whole time I've been thinking
“skip can’t be THAT bad at 2b,” but then I just had a vision of him trying to turn a double play. Any predictions for how many we turn this year? 2? 3?
On with the (good) youth movement!
im sure we will turn our share of
4-6-3’s and 3-6-3’s but when that 4 is the pivot man it could get ugly…
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." - Red Barber
my scary vision out of all this
is skip trying to turn a DP, and his inexperience causing him to rush the throws to where Albert is put in the line of fire one too many times. I fear this will end up with a Rolen-esque collision at 1B for Albert that puts him out for most of the season.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
yeah, that could happen.
I’m more envisioning a Chuck Knoblach, though.
On with the (good) youth movement!
good think keith oberman's mom doesn't go to Cards games then
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
skippy
one thing, among many, i don’t get about the skip to 2nd and adam to the fa market is: why did skip not play infield in some winter league? if mo was trying to get rid of ak all along, why no early prep for skip? did he really think he was not going to be stuck with ak’s salary one way or another? i’m sure “the better off without him” comments from tlr have been there for some time. so, what are they thinking? is there any thinking? any planning? what if they traded ak and only had to cover half his salary, what did they plan to do? my personal guess is that bizzarre as it seems (to me), they were counting on thurston and ryan. everyone else is probably swimming upstream. can’t make the braves trade johnson (etc.), so we are on to plan B.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
or spring training last year
when I begged and begged them to at least give him a shot.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
You even
when as far as showing up at ST to beg them in person. Should we expect any on-site reports this year?
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Feb 12, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
You crazy internet bloggy types
Clearly you didn’t know anything about baseball since it’s impossible to play from your mom’s basement. Now it’s an idea worth trying apparently.
hey i used to play
but the sun hurts me now so i don’t dare go outside
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Abreu
Is he not a steal at $5 million? I know we have a surplus of outfielders, but dang, it would be nice to add some pop.
I think that our internal options are nearly as good, actually
especially when you factor in defense. He was 2.2 wins on defense alone last year, and his offense was largely a product of playing in Yankee stadium. If you look at his splits, he wasn’t a very good player away from home and nearly two thirds of his homers came at Yankee. He was a .279/.354/.418 away from home, which means he’s basically Skip Schumaker away from their at twice the price - and we’d still have to pay Skip too. Overall he’s was a 1.5 WAR player last year and is making only slightly less than he’s worth on the open market.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think that our internal options are nearly as good, actually
especially when you factor in defense. He was -2.2 wins on defense alone last year, and his offense was largely a product of playing in Yankee stadium. If you look at his splits, he wasn’t a very good player away from home and nearly two thirds of his homers came at Yankee. He was a .279/.354/.418 away from home, which means he’s basically Skip Schumaker away from their at twice the price, and we’d still have to pay Skip too. Overall he’s was a 1.5 WAR player last year and is making only slightly less than he’s worth on the open market.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Damn editing tools!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
makes you wish we had a EDIT button doesn't it?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Uhm....this magnificent release of Adam Kennedy was the last
of petty cash. Slow down, chew your food, boys.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 12, 2009 1:35 PM EST reply actions
nice ;)
John Mozeliak: Do you believe in UZR, the primacy of on base percentage, platoon advantage, linear weights, defense-independant pitching statistics, minor league equivalents, positional adjustments, and the theory of pythagorean win expectancy?
Joe Thurston: Ah, if there’s a steady paycheck in it, I’ll believe anything you say.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Excellent
TLR: The bullpen is headed for disaster of biblical proportions!
Mo: What do you mean, “biblical”?
TLR: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mo, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dave Duncan: Exactly.
TLR: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Joe Pettini: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…
Barry Weinberg: The dead rising from the grave!
TLR: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!
Mo: Alright, Alright, I get it. You want Brian Fuentes. Barry, why are you here?
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 12, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Weinberg: Tell him about the the Twinkie…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
imagine this twinkie
represents the normal amount of baseball skill in an MLB player. Based on this season’s performance, albert pujols would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
yes, but can he survive a nuclear holocaust?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
awesome
Dont take me seriously :-D
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Feb 12, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
I don't
understand the Kennedy move, but I’m actually pretty excited to see how this whole Skip at 2b thing works out. I’ll be rooting for him. It definitely gives us a better lineup.
Against RHs (assuming a lot):
Skip 2b
Colby CF
Albert 1b
Ludwick LF
Glaus 3b (when he returns)
Ankiel RF
Greene SS
P
Yadi
That’s one heck of a lineup. While Glaus is out, slide Ankiel up to the 5 hole and add it Freese (or whoever wins the job) at 6 or 7.
Who knows whether Skip can play 2b defensively. He may have bad hands, I don’t know. I think he’ll have sufficient range, though. Surely he’ll have better than Jeff Kent.
We’ll see how it turns out.
i think that for the most part
skip at second is not an experiment to find a starter, but to improve skip’s chances of being included in late inning replacements, improve skip’s chances of making the team if raz does also, improve his trade value.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
Interesting note about 2B
Over at Beyond the Box Score there’s a cool WAR spreadsheet fanshot called The Best Team in Baseball 2009. The author fills out a 25 man roster of the best player at each position (according to his WAR calculations), with the second best infielders and McClouth backing up the infield and outield, respectively. According to his numbers they’d end up with wins in the mid 150’s, costing something close to 500 million dollars. Wow!
Anyway, Chase Utley is obviously the starting second baseman, but the author has Kelly Johnson as the second best. He uses PECOTA for offense and CHONE for defense (I have no idea if that’s the best way to go). Is Kelly Johnson really that good? Is it unfair to say he has such bad defense that say, a trade of Ankiel toacquire him wouldn’t make sense? It seems to me that we’re more likely to be able to replace Ankiel’s production than to stumble upon an awesome second baseman in-house.
That is interesting
I just sent an email to Hank Steinbrenner titled: If this year doesn’t work, try this!
I don’t know if Hank can do the math required to understand WAR….I guess we shall see.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Haha...
That was one of my thoughts as well. I mean, after you put your payroll around 200 million it’s gotta be tempting to just go all in and sign an unbeatable team for twice the price. OK, more than twice… still, if they went kind of crazy I wonder how close the Yanks could come to affording it.
i could call
johnson the 6th to 8th best regular second baseman.
one year of ankiel for 4 years of johnson would be a fleecing.
by ball in play on Feb 12, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
maybe CHONE is very optimistic about his defense or something.
But yeah, trading Ankiel for Johnson or Escobar would have been pretty sweet… ah well.
well, he was tied for 12th by WAR
and two of the guys “worse” than him, ricky weeks and robinson cano, are probably better players who just had bad seasons.
also, he is arbitration-eligible this year, so I think it’d be 3 years of Kelly Johnson, right? or is he a super-two? Either way, Rick is a lot more likely than KJ to put up a 5-6 win season; KJ’s peak is probably 3.5 or so, and that’s if everything goes right.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
I have to say
that I profoundly disagree with this. Ankiel is more likely to put up a 5-6 win season? For one thing, the fact that Johnson plays 2B and Ankiel’s a corner OF gives Johnson approximately 1 additional win. Secondly, there were only 7 OFs in baseball last year worth as many as 5 wins, and only 5 worth 6 wins. Ryan Ludwick was worth 5.6 wins, according to fangraphs.
Last year, Ankiel was worth 2.1 WAR and Johnson was worth 2.3. The year before, Johnson was worth 3 WAR. Even if they’re basically worth the same # of wins, having Johnson for 3 years vs. Ankiel for 1 is a no-brainer. The Braves would never do this unless we threw in a prospect, and a pretty good one, as well.
ankiel is a decent CF
and CF is roughly equal to 2B in terms of positional adjustment. Ankiel is about the same amount below average in CF as Johnson at 2B (-8 UZR/150 in ’08). And Ankiel has the potential to put up a 40 HR/.900 OPS season, imho (before his injury, in his first-ever full season as a hitter, he was on pace for exactly that) which would be worth 5 wins on offense.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Ankiel is a poor CF
and, when Rasmus takes over, will be relegated to either RF or LF. And Ankiel will never have a 40 HR/.900 OPS season as a big leaguer. Getting Rick from 2.1 WAR to 4 wins would be an enormous, career-year, type of jump that I don’t foresee happening, particularly w/ Rick moved out of CF to a corner OF position.
I think he's a good cf
never say never, chuck
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 14, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
well, then
johnson is a “poor 2B”, since they are both about the same amount of runs below average at their respective positions (KJ is actually a bit worse than ankiel).
I disagree with both your assessment of Ankiel’s ability to play CF and your assessment of his offensive ability. Guess we’ll just have to see, on that. Agree with CFIC, here; “never” is a pretty bold word to use when describing an athlete of ankiel’s character, who has already shown himself to be a unique athlete.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
Cards avoid arb
Rick Ankiel and the Cardinals settled at $2.825 million, avoiding arbitration, SI.com has learned.
good news. i was worried the arb process would end up hurting the club's relationship w/ ank.
that’s about the mid point, right?
I wasn't worried.
Actually, I was hoping it would go to arbitration. There’s no way in hell Ankiel and Boras could have presented a winning case.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
And I think Ludwick will have an almost impossible time winning his case too.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
yep, the midpoint
I too was worried about the “hard feelings”. There is a former ball player on the sports talk radio here that says these arbitration cases can get real nasty and unless you have real thick skin and understand “it’s a business”….. your ego will come away bruised.
Ludwick is next…. I would think a deal will be worked out soon.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Feb 12, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
naw, it's a biz. his agent is scott boras. if anyones feelings would be hurt it would be the Cards
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Actually, players who sit in on the hearings
tend to get their feelings hurt. The teams bring a case pre-prepared about all the faults of the player and why they think his value is lower. It can be hard for players to hear those things said about them by the organization they play for.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 13, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
this just came to me
Of the 3 players listed the cardinals will not sign a one. They’ll go with one of the guys currently in house. If the skipster finds his innner ozzie and becomes servicable at 2nd, I believe the team will stand pat.
Now this is where it gets interesting. If he can’t hack that’s when i believe the FO will go look for some one. After thinking about for a whole 5mins I believe it will be polanco. Why? Its economics. Detriot has a bloated payroll and if april is bad they’ll be ditching contracts early and often. Detriot is worried about economy and cash flow is an issue for them. Even if the stimulus is passed, and it starts to work, its going to take time. I personally do not believe detriot will be any good, lack of pitching in a tougher league = fail. The salary dumps will happen and polanco being a pending free agent will be one of the first to go. Now i know there will be alot of ppl saying there is no extra cash for a pick up, i believe mr pujols would gladly defer some money to get one of his best friends back into town. Of cource this also depends on the cardinals being any good. Looking at the division I think they will compete. Other than the cubs (which in my opnion have stayed neutral) everyone else has not done anything to improve. In the end i just hope skip morphs into what ozzie should have been in ’97.
Note I know there is what may be seen as a politcal comment in the above, its simply just part of my BASEBALL argument.
"When the boogie man goes to sleep he checks his closet for Chuck Norris"
I would argue that the Cubs have gotten worse
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2009 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
I really don’t think they are going to win as many games as last season, I’d put them around 90, along with the cardinals. and even if they just lose one of zambrano, harden, or bradley I think they’ll struggle to win 90
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 13, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
i like the idea of giving schu a shot to get his feet wet
to see if he can stick for 2010, but, if that’s the intention, i think grudz would be a better platoon partner than durham and could probably be had for cheaper.
vs. LHP in 2008
grudz (in 99 pa): .395/.459/.523
durham (in 96 pa): .238/.365/.363
vs. LHP career
grudz: .297/.348/.412
durham: .279/.345/.446
for some reason, durham’s slugging fell off a cliff vs. lefties the past two years – i’m betting it’s not coming back (it was .392 in ‘07). meanwhile, grudz absolutely raked southpaws for the second year in a row but looked like cesar izturis against righties (.261/.305/.355). at this point in his career, he’s got platoon player written all over him. in my mind, skip and thurston have a slight edge on the rest of the field at this point and having somebody with that kind of line against lefties to complement them would be huge.
When I see someone
outperform their career average split like that it makes me wonder if they faced nothing by Odalis Perez like lefties in the previous season. I’d be interested to see if Grudz had any AB’s against good lefties last year and how he did.
There are a number of good lefties in their division: Buerhle, Danks, Cliff Lee, and Liriano. But there’s a share of shitty ones as well: Sowers, Clayton Richard, Glen Perkins.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Good god
He owned some pretty good pitchers — almost makes me wish the Cubs had kept Garrett Olsen.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That might work
Grudz is a very good, if not slightly declining, defender and would be an excellant move on a 1 year deal. Is he a type A or B?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2009 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
kids
on the cardinals, anyone under 30 is a kid, duh. hell, my mom says that anyone under 40 is a kid.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 12, 2009 2:38 PM EST reply actions
ok, bear with me....
I’m not guessing anything here….. just trying to make 2+2=5
Boras meets with Cards today to arbitrate for RA, but a deal is done instead.
Pujols has been pushing for Manny.
Ramirez cancelled a promotional appearance today because he could sign a contract at any time.
Boras is Manny’s Agent.
There we go…….. 2+2=5
true....
maybe I should change my equation to 2+2= 25,000,000
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Feb 12, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
dont you get my hopes up
don’t you dare get my hopes up
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Boras showed up
to broker the deal w/ the Cards on the midpoint. We’ve got too many OFs as it is. Granted, we could find a place for Manny, but now Boras is going to let us put Ankiel on the bench during a contract year?
gotta admit
manny-ankiel-ludwick would be a heck of a fun offense.
Not all that much better than Mather/ankiel/duncan/rasmus/ludwick if used properly, though.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
I believe the 2B job will be an internal solution...
Possibly Dave Duncan is prepping Chris to start at 1st and provide the Cardinals with the most productive 2B of all time in Mr. Pujols? He was a SS back in the day, then a 3B, then an outfielder, so why not let him learn 2B? He could probably win a gold glove there with his offensive production (that’s how those things are awarded, right?). Can you imagine the lineup…
Skip – OF
Duncan – 1B
Pujols – 2B
Ludwick – OF
Ankiel – OF
Glaus/Freese/Wallace – 3B
K. Greene – SS
Pitcher
Molina – C (you just need a player who can get on base and get a hit after the pitcher sacrifices – less dp opportunities, and it’s not like the Cardinals will steal any bases this year)
Silver Slugger at every position…
I'd rather
have Colby in the lineup than Duncan.
Here's the problem with crossing an OF'er
for an IF’er….it can be very bad. And by bad, I mean…try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 12, 2009 7:16 PM EST reply actions
Check it
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Feb 12, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Okay. Shut her down!
That’s two Ghostbusters references in one day and I think that might be the limit.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
dude. the thread is ghostbusters.
I’m very disappointed that a full-out gb-quoting melee didn’t develop.
"If I'm right, it was a brilliant move, if I'm wrong, it was a crazy idea". -Mo
the only quotes i know are the theme song
and i couldn’t make any of today’s comments work with the lyrics
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I guess we've found
your favorite movie.
You know, everything was fine with our system until the movie, rather than baseball, became the topic of discussion by dickless here.
Is this true?
Yes, it’s true. This man has no dick!
The smarmy, younger versions
of Bill Murray and Chevy Chase are my guilty pleasures. Fletch, Ghostbusters, Caddyshack, Stripes…you got it.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 13, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
My name is Irwin A. Fletcher
I’m an investigative reporter for a Los Angeles paper. You’ve probably read some of my stuff under the byline of Jane Doe. What the hell, its better than Irwin.
Hopalong Cassidy used to live here
Died a suicide. By bow and arrow. Very weird.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Best Chevy Chase line
Ever.
I do like this one, though: “If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn’t be more surprised than I am now.”
You know, it's just occured to me
that we’ve never had a completely successful test of this type of thread.
I blame myself.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 13, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
ORLANDO CABRERA....
Has played in the postseason 4 of the past 5 years.
186 hits, 33 doubles, and 93 runs in 2008
Finished 15th in the 2007 AL MVP Ballot.
Come on, eat the 1st round pick. Its only the 19th rounder.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 12, 2009 10:36 PM EST reply actions
19th overall.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
That's what I meant. 19th pick in the 1st round. Its not like its in the top 10 picks like last year.
Shoot, Marquis has been on 9 straight playoff teams, though he’s been left off the roster like 3/5ths of the time.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 13, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
Jason Marquis has been on a postseason team for 5 straight years
You want him?
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Feb 12, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
he's a proven winer!
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I knew there was a good example out there
I just was too tired to actually think about it.
Btw, technically he’s been left off those playoff rosters, so….
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Really?
I though that he was used as a pinch hitter.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I think he pinch hit last year.
And he threw 1 inning.
Anyway, he hasn’t been on anything higher than a Divisional Series team since 2005 (granted the cubbies haven’t made it past the LDS the past 2 years…hehe).
In 2008 he was on the cubbies LDS roster, but was left off in 2007. In 2006, he was on the Cards LDS roster (never saw the field) but was left off the LCS and WS rosters.
Point is, he hasn’t really been a part of the cubbies success although he was much more a part of the success with the Cardinals in ’05 and ’04.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
There's a difference between
playing in the postseason because you’re on a good team and playing in the postseason because the team is you play on would be a bottom feeder if it wasn’t for your exceptional talents. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Cabrera is the former…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It depends on the terms
Let me show you why I hate the idea of signing him:
- He’s going to play second base, which means he needs to be paid like a second baseman, which is significantly lower than what he’d be paid as a SS because of positional adjustment. So we really shouldn’t be paying him any more this season than $5M. Not sure he’s going to accept that.
- I’m not crazy about giving up a first round pick for a one year rental. If I’m giving up my pick I’d like to get at least 3 good years in return for it. The problem, however….
- ….is that Cabrera is 34 right now. We all know that most middle infielders with 10 seasons under their belt show a big decline in numbers after age 32. I’m not sure I want to give a 34 year old middle infielder a multi year contract….
- ….especially when said 34 year old middle infielder walked 56 times in 730 PA’s last year. His OBP is highly dependent on his batting average. If he regresses to a .260 hitter, he’s Cesar Izturis who hits 15 more doubles per year. Not exactly a guy I want to be tied into a three year contract.
If he didn’t cost a draft pick, I’d consider it. But since we’d be giving up a top 20 talent, I want a little more out of the pick than an aging middle infielder who will be changing positions late in his career and who’s biggest offensive value is overstated because of the insane amount of PA’s he’s averaged over the last couple of years. Maybe it’s just me, but Ray Durham just makes a lot more sense if we’re going to be signing a veteran infielder. Neither Hudson or Cabrera has enough marginal value over Durham that I would give up a 1st round pick and a few more $$$ to have them.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I agree, but for none of the reasons that you mentioned
Cabrera is one of the more underrated players in the game. Over that last 3 years he has averaged 3.4 WAR. That would make him better than any of the free agent second baseman that Chuck mentioned.
The only problem is that he isn’t a second baseman. However, he has said that he would be willing to play second and he looks like a good bet to perform well there. His career UZR/150 is 7.2 at short. According to the defensive spectrum, he would likely be a +10 fielder there.
His offense has been buoyed by the large number of plate appearances that he accrues. He has averaged over 700 plate appearance over the last 3 years. During that time he has has been slightly below league average as a hitter. Most projection systems peg him for roughly a .315 wOBA and nearly 700 plate appearances next year. Even if his defense is only average at second, he is projected to be nearly as good as Hudson next year. If you assume that he can be well above average at second (which is probably more likely considering his wonderful play at short) than he would be nearly 1 win better than Hudson.
While he would cost a draft pick, he would likely be enough of an improvement at second this year to justify it. I would sign him to a 2 year deal, at around 5 million a season. He is 34 so there is always a chance that he could brake down, but considering his duribility las year, that doesn’t seem very likely.
vivaelbeñsheets
crap... meant to reply to Czechgaurdsmen
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
Why not Ryan?
His career UZR/150 is 7.2 at short. According to the defensive spectrum, he would likely be a +10 fielder there.
His offense has been buoyed by the large number of plate appearances that he accrues. He has averaged over 700 plate appearance over the last 3 years. During that time he has has been slightly below league average as a hitter. Most projection systems peg him for roughly a .315 wOBA and nearly 700 plate appearances next year.
Why not Brendan Ryan then? Ryan’s also a RH-hitting SS who’d be switching to 2b. Ryan’s UZR/150 at SS is between 12-13. Ryan’s expected wOBA according to CHONE is .308; under Marcel it’s .317. Ryan is already under contract and he doesn’t cost any draft picks (We got Wallace at 13 last year and people are already tabbing him the 2nd best prospect in the system; surely we can dig up something at 19 ). Ryan is in his “prime” at least as far as age while OCab is by all accounts on the backside of his career.
In any event, I still think we’re looking at a Ryan/Thurston platoon at 2b with 6 OF’s on the roster (I’ll believe Schu’s a MIF when I see him log real games there), unless one of those guys stinks up the joint in ST.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 13, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Ryan was a pretty average defender in the minors
at least according to Total Zone Rating. But I do like him in a platoon with Thurston. The main difference between Ryan and Cabrera is that Cabrera is proven and looks like a good bet to continue his solid production, while Ryan hasn’t had much success in the bigs and was never a great hitter in the minors. I personally don’t think that that is worth the draft pick, but it would make sense for a team on the edge of contending.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 13, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
remember saying this?
Frankly, I really don’t know the reliability of stats like UZR/150 (much less expected UZR/150). My intuition, based merely on the methodology for how the stat is created, would tell me that it’s not a reliable one to assess past performance, much less to predict performance (not saying it can’t be useful (if only because there’s nothing better); only that it’s not reliable).
You have a problem correctly assessing Adam Kennedy’s defensive value, when he has 9000+ innings at 2b. yet, you think that you can turn around and then rely on ryan’s 419 career innings at SS in order to project his performance at 2b? and ignore his 274 innings at 2b (where he has a – 8.5 UZR/150)?
I mistakenly thought you were seriously looking for some discussion of the reliability of defensive statistics. Now I see you were just cherry-picking stats to justify the removal of a player you don’t like.
Nice.
Dude
You seriously don’t have good reading comprehension skills. Try to understand what you’re talking about before you spout off (your comment about sunk costs in a previous thread was a perfect example – you showed that you had no idea what the term actually meant and yet you felt utterly confident to dispute someone’s else’s point about it).
In my comment about BRyan, I was simply using the same stats as vivaelpujols. He thought that based on Ocab’s UZR at SS that he’d be a good 2nd baseman. He alluded to various projections that predicted a certain wOBA for OCab. I merely pointed out that under his criteria (albeit with BRyan’s smaller sample size) that BRyan was expected to do as well or better than OCab while costing far less in money and draft picks. So, given his thoughts about Ocab and what was expected of him, I suggested that he (re)consider an internal option. Let me make it even more basic for you:
(Ocab’s projections) minus (millons of $) minus (1st rd draft pick) < (BRyan’s projections) when (Ocab’s projections) approximate (BRyan’s projections). Moreover, did I say that the stats I was referencing were reliable or that I was relying on them to truly predict BRyan’s performance? No. Rather, I said that based on the stats vivaelpujols was using, if he liked Ocab, he should look at Ryan.
Let’s move on to my second comment that you were nice enough to block quote. Again, your reading comprehension is lacking. The point of this post (of which you excerpted just a section) was that your hand-wringing over the loss of AK, which was based on your misunderstanding of the proper inferences you could make concerning the expected value of AK versus the expected values of the other players, was unnecessary. It was unnecessary because no worthwhile statisitcal analysis actually showed that AK was expected to be better than the other options with any sort of confidence.
Don’t you see that I’ve made the EXACT SAME POINT in both posts? The projections don’t show that Ocab’s expected to be better than Ryan (or the others) so why bother signing him? As well, why care whether Kennedy stays when the projections don’t show that he’s expected to be better than the others?
Talking statistics with you is like playing cards with my brother’s kids.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 14, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
i'm sure there's a legitimate reason why you ignored the existence of brendan ryan's
second base statistics over a comparable number of innings to those at SS, when trying to predict the results at SS. but you didn’t address that.
and failing to acknowledge in your original post that cabrera has defensive stats spanning years and years, and ryan has about 50-60 games worth, when you profess to be particularly concerned about the sample sizes in determining defensive value, is a pretty glaring error.
Try again.
Good God. Try reading the post again. I wasn’t attempting to predict BRyan’s results or Ocab’s results (re-read this sentence for emphasis). I was taking the other poster’s assumptions to make a point. Adding in Ocab’s large previous sample size at SS or recognizing Bryan’s small ones at 2b or SS wouldn’t change the point I was making at all.
Do you conceptually understand the differences between assessing a player’s past performance and predicting a future one? Frankly, gven your comments, I just don’t think you do.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 14, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
The higher the sample size
the easier it is to predict the future. UZR may be a flaw stat when trying to predict the future, but sample size still makes a difference.
For example we know that Carl Crawford is much more likely to repeat his career 14.1 UZR/150 in left next year based on his 864 games there than Willie Harris is to repeat his career 18.9 UZR/150 in left next year based on his 186 games there.
The same thing applies with O-Cab vs. Ryan. There is no way to tell how each of them will do next year, but there is a much greater chance of Cabrera matching his career numbers than Ryan.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 14, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
You are correct...but
The point I was making to you above was independent of sample size (which tom s. didn’t understand).
(all numbers in the following example are made up)
Let’s say that after 1500 games (about 10 years’ worth), OCab has a UZR/150 of +10 when all years and circumstances (like nagging injuries, etc.) are averaged together. One thing we might look at right off the bat to see if we expected him to be +10 the next year would be the volatility of the component stats. If there are 5 +11 seasons and 5 +9 seasons evenly distributed throughout the population, then we might be pretty confident that OCab’s UZR/150 would be close to +10 for the next year assuming other factors are constant. But if there are 5 seasons of +20 and 5 seasons of 0, we wouldn’t be confident that he’d produce a +10 season.
Likewise, we’d look at the ‘pattern’ of the numbers. If OCab was +15 in his first season, +14 in his second, +13 in his third and +5 in his 10th, then even though he’s averaged a +10, we’d be pretty confident that he would not be +10 in the next season.
In any event, you are correct that sample size can be helpful in predicting future performance. But that doesn’t have anything to do with the point I was making to you about comparing OCab’s and BRyan’s expected performance next year. Why? Because the higher sample size for OCab only shows (at best) that you could be more confident of him repeating his numbers within a certain band. For example perhaps they show that OCab is sure to be a 2WAR player plus/minus .5. Assuming OCab’s projections = BRyan’s projections (which was my point to you above) then we might say that Ryan is a 2WAR player +/- 1.2. Sample size would make us less confident that Ryan would meet the projections BUT it doesn’t show that OCab is expected to actually be better than Ryan, only that his upside or downside is narrower.
My further point above is that, in the absence of projections that show that OCab is confidently expected to be better than Ryan, that OCab is not worth it because he costs more money and draft picks as well.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 15, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks
That makes a lot of sense. One point that I need to make is that Ryan was not a very good defender in the minors. Using his TTR ratings, which work similarly to UZR, he has ranged from below average to slightly above average. I think that his small sample size in the majors isn’t indicative of his actually ability. In that case, we would pretty much know for sure that Cabrera will outperform Ryan next year.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 16, 2009 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
My God you ARE my twin!!!
he just doesn’t get it does he Willie? I’ve learned the hard way there is no way to respond to some people on here without me looking like the jerk
Skippy will be fine at the keystone
Few believed B’Loop could start… he did fine. Skippy will be ok too.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
Hell
Einstein did some of his best work as a patent clerk!
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 13, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Do you know how much a patent clerk makes?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
because it has happened , it will happen?
Although with Tony, it doesn’t surprise me that he would subscribe to the Post Hoc Ergo Proctor Hoc*** way of thinking. Damn Lawyers!
***Yes! I have been waiting for years to be able use that!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
it is
I went and ruined it in all my excitement.
/massive comment and reply fail
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
why the emphasis on skip moving
if skip looked like an everyday player, great. but with his splits against lhp, i don’t get the urgency for him to move to the infield. different if he could be successful as an everyday player, but that doesn’t look too promising right now.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
they don't know what to do with him
they realize that he’s got probably like 4 outfielders better than him, but he has seniority… I’m not sure what I’d do, except that I’d probably not think of trying to convert him to 2B… if that actually works, it’s a real coup as someone has mentioned before.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 13, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
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