It seems apparent that the decision to unceremoniously drop Adam Kennedy was fueled for emotional reasons, to some extent.  I do not believe Mo pulls the trigger on this move without support based in reason and logic, though.  TLR strikes me as a bit impulsive.  Mo strikes me as anything but.  I believe a large reason that Mo signed off on this move is the sheer numbers he can throw at the second base position.  I am going to try to justify the release of Adam Kennedy in a little more detail than I would feel comfortable writing in any existing post.  Just as a note, I am not looking at Schumaker in this.  That grand experiment is something I'll need to see to believe, but I hope it works out wonderfully.

At the outset, I will concede that the Cards are probably giving something up defensively, though I think Barden and Ryan are options in the competition that are capable of playing plus defense.  I do think expecting Kennedy to replicate last seasons results is asking a lot, but he is generally quite capable with the glove.  Probably the best defensive option.

Offensively, I expect the Cards are going to find something better.  How much better is the question.  Will it be by a wide enough margin to offset any slippage in defense? 

Just going off ZIPS, Kennedy projects at .647 OPS.  That seems about right to me.  The new cast of characters have these ZIP projections - Ryan .642, Barden .666, Hoffpauir .689, Greene .636.  I am not sure about Thurston but I suspect it would be somewhere around Hoffpauir's number.

Now I know the difference offensively here isn't real big.  I also know ZIPS has some flaws, particularly in accurately pegging younger talents.  But then that is kinda the point here, to me at least.  Kennedy has an established history and his variance offensively is negligible, particularly on the up side.  There are 5 internal options that project to be close or better offensively, and the amount of variance they each have is going to be great enough that it makes sense to take advantage of the numbers.  

So to take this a step further....


We can all agree that none of these ZIPS look very good.  Not everybody is going to hit exactly at their projection.  Some will overperform and some will underperform.  I believe the variance to these 5 would be greater than Kennedy's.   The numbers on the downside will likely be much lower as well - these guys are more likely to completely flame out too.  But the downside risk is managed by having numbers. 

What are the chances that at least one of these guys will hit their top 40%, 30%, 20%, 10% percentile projections?  Odds are pretty damn good.

Chances 1 of the 5 hits the 40% threshold -  92.8%
Chances 1 of the 5 hits the 30% threshold - 83.2%
Chances 1 of the 5 hits the 20% threshold - 67.3%
Chances 1 of the 5 hits the 10% threshold - 41%

I think the chances are pretty good that we can find an offensive upgrade that is significant enough to offset defensive slippage, plus some.  As an additional bonus, we have an opportunity to audition 5 people that could fit into plans at a very cheap cost for 2010 and beyond.   To me the only downside is the pain you have to go through as you sift through these options.  How long will it take?  How many misleading hot streaks will end up causing you to stick with a bad option too long?  I think this decision will cause a lot of heartburn in April, May, and maybe even June.  But I also think this team will be a better team in September without Kennedy.  If you are a dreamer, maybe even October.  I can get behind this move by Mo, whether urged by TLR or not, pretty easily.