What might have been
by chuckb on Feb 1, 2009 10:53 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintI wanted to take a look today at the degree to which the Cards’ hitters were lucky last year after being inspired by Rich Lederer’s page over at Baseball Analysts a couple of days ago. He uses data from THT to tell us that the groundball out rate in 2008 was 74%, the fly ball (non-homer variety) out rate was 84%, and the line drive out rate was 29%. It should surprise no one that most grounders and fly balls (that don’t leave the park) ended up as outs and that most line drives didn’t. In any case, I decided to take a look at the number of groundballs, fly balls, and line drives each Cardinal hit last season to see if we ended up w/ more, or fewer, hits than average. How lucky were they based on their GB%, FB%, and LD%.
For this exercise, I’m going to keep each player’s HR rate as it was b/c we’re not trying to make any sort of determination as to whether any of our hitters had an inordinately high or low number of homers relative to their FB rate. For the table below, OFFB stands for outfield fly balls that do not end up as homers and IFFB are, of course, infield fly balls. IFFB end up as outs 99% of the time.
| GB | OFFB | LD | IFFB | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pujols | 192 | 121 | 107 | 21 | 37 |
| Ludwick | 109 | 133 | 105 | 16 | 37 |
| Glaus | 168 | 146 | 83 | 19 | 27 |
| Ankiel | 115 | 100 | 60 | 16 | 25 |
| Kennedy | 129 | 88 | 74 | 5 | 2 |
| Miles | 180 | 75 | 70 | 4 | 4 |
| Skip | 279 | 86 | 104 | 3 | 8 |
| Yadi | 193 | 116 | 88 | 16 | 7 |
| Duncan | 71 | 44 | 39 | 11 | 6 |
| Izturis | 178 | 102 | 85 | 16 | 1 |
So we multiply the number of GB times .26, the number of OFFB times .16, the number of LD times .71 and the number of IFFB times .01 and then add homers to get projected hits. If we subtract projected hits from actual hits, we’ll see the degree to which the Cards’ primary hitters last year were lucky. If that number, which I’m calling extra hits, is negative, then the Cards’ hitters were unlucky. Let’s take a look:
| Act. hits | Proj. hits | extra hits | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pujols | 187 | 182.46 | 4.54 |
| Ludwick | 161 | 161.33 | -0.33 |
| Glaus | 147 | 153.16 | -6.16 |
| Ankiel | 109 | 113.66 | -4.66 |
| Kennedy | 72 | 102.21 | -30.21 |
| Miles | 99 | 112.54 | -13.54 |
| Skip | 163 | 168.17 | -5.17 |
| Yadi | 135 | 138.38 | -3.38 |
| Duncan | 55 | 59.3 | -4.3 |
| Izturis | 109 | 124.11 | -15.11 |
| Total | -78.32 |
According to this, the Cards’ hitters should have had, combined, 78 more hits than last year. Last year, in the NL, .508 hits was worth 1 run so the additional 78 hits we should have had would have translated into about 40 runs! Wow! Now, if you look at the players who were the "unluckiest" – Kennedy, Miles, and Izturis – they are also the 3 Cards’ regulars w/ the least power. Why is that significant? Outfielders played them more shallow and, therefore, were probably able to take away some line drive hits that other players would have had fall in. In other words, Kennedy probably didn’t lose 30 hits due to bad luck. He probably lost a fair number of them to the fact that he can’t hit the ball very far. Still, even if we take away all of the hits those 3 lost, that’s still 19 hits Cards’ hitters lost relative to the average player. There’s about 10 runs – 1 win in the standings! Is it possible that just getting better luck from our hitters will increase our wins by a couple in ’09?
You may ask – what about Khalil Greene? Was he as terrible last year as he appeared? As it turns out, Greene lost 13.76 hits due to "bad luck." Now, he has power so there may be a genuine bad luck hit loss here.
Finally, it’s been noted here many times that Ludwick had an inordinately high LD rate in ’08. Last year it was 26.3 % (2nd highest in the big leagues), and his career LD rate is 22.3 % -- after last season. Despite the fact that hitting line drives is a skill, there’s every reason to believe that his LD rate will fall back into the "normal" range this season, thus taking away some of the team’s "lost hits." It’s also important to understand that this exercise isn’t meant, necessarily, to be predictive. It only says what could have, and perhaps should have, happened last year based on each player’s GB, LD, and FB rates (not to mention HR rate).
Now, I've got to get that damned computer desk assembled!
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I'm very suspicious of a
process that results in all but one guy (and that 1 guy being by far our best hitter!) coming out “unlucky.” Did Lederer do a breakdown for all ML hitters? If the negative/positive ratio among all hitters is the same as among the Cardinals, wouldn’t that indicate a flawed concept?
teams v individuals?
I have a hard time with Aaron Miles being unlucky in this calculation and being named the seventh luckiest by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix in their new analysis at THT
I could see the GB, LD, FB% as good indicators of the whole team (calculating all the Team number of GBs, LDs and FBs) instead of individuals because it might negate or balance out the individual characteristics of speedsters, slap hitters and sluggers. For instance, Cesar Izturis should have a higher % of his GBs turn into hits than Yadi and more of Albert’s FBs would hit the wall for doubles than Adam Kennedy’s. If, however, they’re all mashed together in one calculation, it could offset any idiosyncratic discrepancies.
by sra on Feb 1, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
by definition
because he’s comparing averages of actual performance, the negative/positive ratio for all major league hitters equals 1.000.
There are definitely areas for localized error though. For instance, if the scorekeeper at busch was more likely than your typical scorekeeper to call a fliner a line drive than a fly ball, or vice versa, it’ll have a big effect.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
well, not the ratio
but the sum of “lucky” and “unlucky”. One guy might be +80 and another 20 guys might be minus 4, but it’ll all add up to zero.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
sums of squares then
If I understand you correctly that the errors are canceling each other out, then shouldn’t we use sum of squares or something equivalent, instead?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
it's not that the errors cancel out
the errors are there. The errors exist because the scorekeepers at a given park classify batted balls differently (as an example of this, the data source B-R uses has pujols at 105 LD’s in 2008, fangraphs has him with 107). Two different scorekeepers saw two different things when albert hit the same ball.
When you add all the tabulations from all the scorekeepers in the major leagues together, the effect of 2 extra LD’s off of albert’s bat is miniscule. But the effect on albert’s individual perceived luck is not miniscule; that’s 1 extra expected hit. if the same scorekeeper’s judgment gives every player on the team one less expected hit, that’s significant (to the team). It also affects the league average.
MdR’s comment was that we seemed to have a lot of “unlucky” players compared to the number of “lucky” players, and he was asking (i think) whether other teams also had a similar ratio of unlucky players. The answer to that is “maybe”, there can be many more “lucky” or “unlucky”, but the sum of all the “extra” hits adds to zero in the end.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
and to beat this horse a bit more
even absent the human error element, when “league average” is used as the definition of “luck”, the sum of the mathematical “luck” will always sum to zero across the time frame which was used to determine the “average”. This is what I meant above with “by definition”.
The real world luck, however, across any given period of time, does not necessarily sum to zero. In a given season, EVERY team can have more lucky players than unlucky players. On a long enough time line, that won’t happen, but it could happen in the short term. But the actual league average statistics won’t tell you that it happened; it’ll just bias the “luck” baseline one way or the other, and there’s not much we can do about it.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
That can be taken into account
by looking at F/L/G ratios at Busch for the team’s opponents, compared to what they did on the year as a whole. There will be some warpage owing to the shortage of Cardinals power pitchers in 2008, but gross oddities in scoring should still be detected.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 1, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Don't tell Papelbon that Kennedy can't hit the ball very far!!!!
j/k
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
you know, i hear about this hit all the time, yet i've never seen it
and if i didn’t see it, then it didn’t happen. and AK is still the suckyest hitter on the team.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
really?
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Offense was an issue last year
The bullpen, as we all know, was horrendous last year. The offense wasn’t great either. You know your team’s offense is bad when they score 12 runs in one game and get shut out in the next. If we got those two things going last year, we could’ve won more games than we did – and we won 86.
Welcome to Baseball Heaven.
Correct me if I'm wrong
but didn’t the team have over a .280 team BA. Wasn’t that close to a record? We had four guys with over 25 home runs. Our offense could have been better, but that could be said for any team. It was, by far, less of an issue than the bullpen. We’ve improved the bullpen without having to spend alot of money, and we’ve upgraded over Izturis offensively without crippling the bank. Guys like Raz, Freese, and Mather should be above replacement level on offense as well.
And also:
You know your team’s offense is bad when they score 12 runs in one game and get shut out in the next.
This is about as small a sample size as you can get. It doesn’t really show us anything, other than we got shutout in a game. But, what team didn’t get shutout last year? In fact, what team didn’t get shutout last year after blowing a team out the night before? When you play a 162-game schedule that is bound to happen.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...Oh yeah, and by the way....BEN SHEETS!!!!!
by RunninRedbird on Feb 1, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Drawback in using averages
I have to jump on my “let’s look at distributions instead” soap box again. I have to agree with zoomzoomj88. I don’t have the time right now to plot out the frequency distribution of runs scored/game and runs yielded per game. I hope to do a fan post in the future on this, but maybe there is someone else who is more capable? I hear what you (RunningRedbird) is saying about the high BA, but averages could be dominated by outliers, which is what I think zoomzoomj88 is getting at. And I agree that from an averages (central tendency) standpoint, the offense was pretty good. But how about the median and mode? Or the variability (consistency) in the distribution.
I am not totally disagreeing with you in that every team has its ups and downs throughout the season. But I would venture to say (w/ absolutely no data to back me up right now other than my impression from having read some articles/posts on this) that the more successful teams are relatively more consistent in their production.
I think Mo does take that into account. Here’s a quote from him answering a question about evaluating offensive performance:
John Mozeliak: We use a varied of rate stats plus we have our own internal metrics we value. When looking at an offensive player I feel average is overvalued.
Oops, I see that SleepyCA has posted the B-R tool page for situational records below. I would like to play with that tool a bit and maybe just process the game logs directly.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
we did this earlier in the off-season
soonerfan asked for it and I put it together. here’s the spreadsheet with the numbers all compiled:
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
Yes, I remeber it
That’s one thing that
than my impression from having read some articles/posts on this
is referring to in addition to other things.
And your data did show a difference in the distribution between NL in general and the “playoff contending” teams. I recall that I did a Chi-Squared test to see if the distributional results were significant, but I don’t remember the p-value right now. I guess, I was hoping to build upon what you did by doing more comparison between the non-playoff vs. playoff distributions for offense and pitching, and also looking at the run differential distributions. Maybe the exercise will not be all that productive. I don’t know.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
So
the 2008 Cardinals were the second hardest NL team to shout out, and were sixth in the league in scoring <=1, 2, or 3 runs. The only real evidence that the Cardinals were unusually streaky is that they only scored one run 16 times, which was slightly worse than the league average of 15.3.
Sleepy, how much work would it be to see the same distribution for runs allowed?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
i don't know where you'd get the data
the above spreadsheet was compiled using the data found at the bottom of the team pitching game logs B-R page:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/tgl.cgi?team=STL&year=2008&t=p
You could use the tool i linked to above to find out how many times we gave up x runs in, but it would take forever to get that data for the whole league. If there isn’t a handy source of info, it might be necessary to download the retrosheet data and write a sql query to find it.
This is something I’ve been meaning to do for a while, but the last time i installed and ran mysql (using the directions from statspeak) my laptop got haxored within about 10 minutes, so I’m afraid to try it.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I see what you're saying
w/ the drawback in using AVG.
I just don’t see the offense as being our weak point last year. Yeah, our runs could have been distributed better throughout the course of the year. But, it was our bullpen that blew those 27 saves for us, after our offense and SP had gotten us to the point in the game where we had a chance to win.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...Oh yeah, and by the way....BEN SHEETS!!!!!
by RunninRedbird on Feb 1, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed on the bullpen
Let’s hope our addition by subtraction works (i.e. – Izzy and Flo). Also, let’s hope the lefty scrap bin works out. Now if only we can obtain a specific mid-hanging fruit…
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
you can look this stuff up using this tool at B-R
compare our team’s performance in different scoring environments:
We were fine.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
We were 4th
in the NL in runs scored. In fairness, that was 12th in the majors. Offense isn’t the problem (except Ankiel in innings 7+), but I’ll admit our offense isn’t some sort of unstoppable force.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
It did seem like they would win one game like 12 - 3, then lose the next two games by one run.
by Czechguardsman on Feb 1, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
14-13?
10-9?
stupid offense…..
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Not really.
The team was 7-5 in games immediately after they scored 10 runs or more in a game, per BR.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 1, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
team ops+ of 111
ranked first in the nl in 08.
www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/nl_2008.shtnl
Wait a minute
are you telling me that getting rid of Miles and Izturis will make this offense better?
Unfathomable!
Seriously though, (because the kind of comprehension needed for all this isn’t coming to me this early in the morning) does this take into account each players career averages in LD,GB,and FB rates?
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Inconceivable!
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Feb 1, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know what that word means
so I use Unfathomable.
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yay for
As many Princess Bride references as possible. Any time. Any where.
mel
did you join in the Princess Bride game thread last season?
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i don't think so.
I read it and laughed a lot, but I don’ think I commented. I don’t comment much in game threads. Usually doing lots of multitasking while reading along. I’m not big on movie references because I just don’t have a mind that works like that usually, but that movie is way up on the list for me.
mel
stop rhyming and i mean it
anybody want a peanut?
just think what would happen to our O if you added Manny
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
As you're watching the Super Bowl tonight
Just remember which team won the following World Series the last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl…
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
Better more obscure question
Which team won the WS when the Cardinals won the 1925 NFL Championship.
Not afraid to nitpick
yeah, the follwing year it was the Cardinals
I am going with that being what joker meant
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So...how did joker24 feel the day after the last time he had too much to drink?
Ehh? Ehhhhhh?
I’ll go ahead and do it to myself
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Feb 1, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
That was supposed to be the joke
I suck at life
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
Price is Right side note
This is the most depressing announcing in history. HE GOT THE SHOWCASE TO THE DOLLAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I didn’t think anything could touch Joe Buck’s horrifically uninterested call of one of the top 3 plays in Super Bowl history, but Drew Carrey has ruined PiR.
Not afraid to nitpick
He almost seemed pissed off
I miss Bob Barker
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
don't forget, have your pets spayed or neutered
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
so were good either way!
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grammar police please
/sulks in corner
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interesting post chuck
i’d suggest writing all future posts from the floor
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
one technique question
chuck- did you account for line drives that were home runs, as well? Pujols had 10 of these, ludwick had 5, etc. It’ll change the shape of the “luck” distribution at least a little bit.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
no I didn't
this is a good point. After reading Lederer’s article, I went on the assumption that all homers were categorized as fly balls. You’re right that it would change the numbers some — not a ton, but a little bit, to be sure.
Doesn't seem ....
to account for the fact that Pujols (for example) hits GBs a hell of a lot harder on avg. than Kennedy (for example) does. Harder GBs are more likely to be hits on avg. and hitting harder GBs is a skill. I’d be surprised if Pujols wasn’t always “luckier” under this methodology and Kennedy was always “unluckier.”
by Willie McGee's Twin on Feb 1, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions
which chuck did state in the post
that the no power players are apt to be described as unlucky when that may not be actually accurate
lets get together and do the bump...bump...bump...bump
First of all, my apologies to everyone for not getting a post up yesterday. I moved yesterday and thought I’d be able to get one done Friday night – didn’t happen. Then I thought I’d have some time yesterday – nope. So here I lay on the floor of my new office typing together yesterday’s/today’s post so that we might have something Cardinal-related to discuss. Please forgive.
you certainly dont need to apologize to us.
You write part of this excellent free blog for us and you all do a great job.
Sh…uff happens sometimes.
congrats on the new place
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
NO Garland, NO Wolf, NO Looper!
by jealousblues on Feb 1, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
There's a very optimistic story about the Cards' chance this year
at Yahoo: “Cards’ kids could trump Cubs’ vets for division title.” You can probably tell the gist of it from the title – we have a bunch of kids so there’s risk, but they’re talented kids so there’s also a big upside.
It tells a nice story, but it’s not always too reality-based. Case in point: “Brett Wallace was drafted out of Arizona State in June and was playing Class AA ball by the end of the season. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t do the things Albert Pujols did in 2001.” I can think of one pretty good reason to think he can’t do what Pujols did – essentially no one else in the history of baseball has done what Pujols did.
Plus, they have the "kids" at the wrong positions....
Well, maybe not wrong, but they’re weak where the major league team is weak as well – starting pitching and middle infield.
Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro (on another team, thank you Mo!)
Actually, Walrus has some resemblances to AP circa 2000.
Born to hit, believed to have a bad body, tore through the minors in his first exposure, and (if you believe some of the blogs) slimmed down considerably his first winter as a pro. Yes, it’s unrealistic to hope that he turns into another Pujols; there’s only one of those. But if he makes it to .300/.370/.550 his first year (AP was .329/.403/.610), that would qualify as doing “the things Pujols did in 2001” for rhetorical purposes. And I think he has a chance to do it. That is a VERY potent hitter.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 1, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
good call with the link
you beat me to it
btw – was anyone else short on arizona cardinals gear for the game today and ended up coming through with StL cardinals stuff to suffice it?
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
you know, for an Htown guy, i like that richard justice dude
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
interesting that Ludwick is the closest person to "normal"
in this exercise, yet he has a really weird line drive rate… does this indicate at least to some extent that his line drive rate is duplicable? is duplicable a word? probably not, but there it is.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 1, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions
John Madden just called Hines Ward "gritty"
TLR just told Mo to call Ward’s agent
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by jd is legend on Feb 1, 2009 7:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Just heard a commentater describe Warner as "gritty" in the postgame
It’s going to be a very strange looking roster if TLR has his gritty way….
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
When cliche's go wrong....
Postgame interview with Santonio Holmes:
Dan Patrick: “When you saw Warner hook up with Fitzgerald for that TD pass, what was going through your mind?”
Santonio Holmes: “I knew that our defense would get us the ball back and give us a chance to go down and score — they’ve been great all year”
So, instead of paying attention to what the actual question was, you deliver a stupid cliche that makes you sound like a complete idiot on national television. Generally, you don’t thank your defense for “getting you the ball back” when they just gave up a 65 yard TD pass to the other team. You’re getting the ball back anyway, because the rules say that they have to kick it off to you after they score.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Does being a slow runner
come into play in any of this exercise of being “unlucky”?
There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 1, 2009 8:59 PM EST reply actions
Well the guys who were most unlucky
Izturis, Miles and Kennedy, are all relatively fast runners so it wouldn’t seem so.
vivaelbensheets
This is probably just proof of my crappy football strategizing,
but I’m surprised the Cardinals just punted there. They probably weren’t going to get that great of field position (although it obviously worked out well in retrospect); and weighing a maybe 20-25 yard change in field position and all that lost time vs. the chance of Warner completing a >20 yard pass with those receivers, I’d have taken my chances with Warner.
I guess the other option would have been a field goal,
but it would have been a really long (53-54 yards?) field goal. Not know off the top of my head if their place kicker is a monster, I’d have still taken my chances with Warner.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
Holy Crap! Safety!
But they still need a touchdown, and they’ll have to go quite a ways barring a big return. (I’ve made this an unofficial end of Super Bowl thread, if anyone’s around.)
Oh, double super holy crap squared
Another >60 yard TD pass by Warner. Has anyone thrown two of them in his career? (How many have even thrown one?)
is the Big Red
actually gonna win a Super Bowl?
My inner 12 year old is pleased
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Yeah, I hope so too, both for the Cardinals and for Warner.
Overtime would also be entertaining though….
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
i have been entertained enough
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They're pretty close to long field goal range....
Pittsburgh’s kicker is 8-10 from 40-49 yards and 1-2 from over 50 yards for the season.
double crap
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Well, however it turns out we certainly have another Super Bowl classic
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:01 PM EST reply actions
this might be the best one ever
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might as well make it the best one ever
and have the Big Red come back…again
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I am gonna need another beer after this
so I will take it
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and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
It's hard to put it above the Rams Super Bowl win,
since that one came down to a goal line play on the last play of the game. But maybe I’m a little biased.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
3 lead changing
TDs in the last 2:40 would be tough to top, especially a TD with <22 left
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
Yeah, that's true
They’ve certainly packed a lot of action into the last few minutes. (Plus the safety was kind of an interesting novelty.)
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh
35 seconds to go the length of the field. I’m not optimistic, but stranger things have happened I suppose….
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:05 PM EST reply actions
Well, I guess that just about does it
Helluva game, anyway.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:11 PM EST reply actions
my inner 12 year old is not pleased
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
An appropriate game for a thread entitled, "What might have been."
Sign someone who can pitch, then let this team play.
by IL and StL Fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
well said
or typed
or hell…
+1
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
Yeah, that would be more than adequate compensation for me
if another Cards team wins a championship this year.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
i was so torn
i mean, I want to root for the steelers, given the baseball cardinals record of success in post-steelers victories. I started out rooting for them.
OTOH, the AZ team was so clearly superior tonight, and the referees were so clearly calling everything possible against them while ignoring anything that the steelers players did (including facemasks, blatant late hits, blocks in the back, etc) that I changed my mind mid-game and started rooting for the cardinals. And then Kurt Warner started looking like kurt warner again…
And then the Steelers made a heck of a play in the end zone (which was, of course, challenged and upheld). it was probably the right call, but it would have been “out of bounds” in my flag football league.
And then Warner “fumbled” on a clear pass attempt (I disagree with the rule, but it’s the rule, eff john madden, you’re wrong, his arm was going forward). Sigh, the referees upheld it (no surprise there).
At least give the guy the last play of the game to make something happen.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
It definitely look like a pass
but I was a bit biased
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and....BEN SHEETS!!! **
**not that BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment, just BEN SHEETS!!!
(BEN SHEETS might be involved in this comment)
i guess it comes down to the AZ defense
and the fact that they didn’t get the job done on that last drive. All they had to do was hold them to a field goal, cuz warner was “on” at that point, and they didn’t do it.
But I still feel a bit cheated.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I remember having the same feeling at the end of the 2001 Super Bowl
Warner was so “on” during the 4th quarter, if that game had gone to overtime I’d have bet a lot more money than I could reasonably afford on the Rams (coin toss be damned!). But then Vinatieri hit that almost 50 yard field goal and I felt totally robbed.
But at the same time, yeah, after a pretty solid game that was a terrible end for the Cards’ defense. Big Ben and Pittsburgh just walked down the field. Plus they got that unbelievable TD catch….
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
The 50-or-so yard pass to Holmes where the Cards' DB fell down was the game
They were assured of at least OT, but you just knew they’d score a TD.
Hats off to Kurt Warner, though. He’s not only a great QB, but a great person.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
by jd is legend on Feb 1, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
And a Hall of Famer.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
I thought the game was in the first half
when the Cardinals were about to get a touchdown and the Steelers ran it back after intercepting it
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 2, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
except that there was a facemask and 2 blocks in the back
on the run back that weren’t called. And then the guy was down on the 1 yard line, but they gave him the TD.
ut yes, that was a big play.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
yeah
I thought that was bs… they refs were clearly in the steelers favor. I too thought he was down… and with the cardinals red zone defense, that could easily have been just a field goal. but they also shouldn’t have thrown that interception I guess.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 2, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
no, it wouldn't have been anything if he didn't score
the time ran out early in the run-back, and the ref’s were too far from the AZ end zone to make the call.
In some ways it is an “instant replay” question that bears some relevance to baseball- how do you determine the standards? In football, it seems to be “there must be video evidence that overturns what is decided on the field”. but there were 2 cases tonight which stood when challenged which, if the decision on the field were reversed, the decision would also have stood imho (the end-of-first half TD and the end of game TD). If either had been called “out” by the ref’s, the decisions would have stood because there wasn’t evidence on the replay to overturn them either way.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I didn't see the facemasks or blocks in the back
But I think he was in. The ball came up short at first, but no part of his body was on the ground. After that he kinda rolled over into the endzone, on top of that other dude.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
The top of this head hit
but it was really tough to see exactly where the ball was when it hit. All you need is to break the plane of the goal line and there was no way to definitively see for sure if it had.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
they didn't even review it
*cough Ben Sheets *cough Sheets
I must be getting a Sheets cold.
by bearcatcardfan on Feb 1, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'm glad someone else noticed the refs calling everything the Cardinals did
the refs had waaay too much effect on that game.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 2, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
lets not forget
AZ’s coach was 2/2 in challenges. Shame he didn’t have 5 or 6 towels to throw…
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
same thing happened the last time they played in the SB
the refs totally screwed over Seattle & gave the steelers the game. and the same thing happened tonight for most of the game. this is why i hate the nfl, they clearly play favorites & the best team doesn’t always win. they wanted the steelers to win & they did.
i still don’t think holmes got his right foot down, but what do i know? i’m an unbiased fan with no dog in that hunt.
oh & most of the commercials sucked too. the bud light one where they threw the guy out the window was good, the Doritos one where the guy busted the vending machine was awesome, and the FTD one where the flowers told the woman “No one wants to see you naked!” was great. other than that, pretty mediocre commercials all around.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
There was one angle to me that looked like Holmes' right toe was down
All the rest weren’t good enough to tell.
I liked the Conan Bud Light commercial.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
forgot about Conan, he had a lot of face time last night
i guy i went to school with a guy who was supposed to be in that commercial, but they cut his part out. there were supposed to be 4 male body builders & he was one of them. don’t know if i believe the guy or not, but that is his line of work. he’s a quasi male model/body builder/actor/douchebag
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I was glad to see MacGruber make an appearance.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
please tell me your joking
you can’t be serious.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
um, no
big fan of MacGruber.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
a little part of me just died
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Because I like a goofy character on SNL?
Dramatic, much?
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
Seattle?
I’m guessing you meant Phoenix?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 2, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
The post starts
“same thing happened the last time they (the Steelers) played in the Super Bowl.”
BEN F*&*ING SHEETS!
Holy shit, that was an amazing catch
I was just listening to the game so I didn’t see all the plays, but I just watched a highlight of the game winning TD – truly an amazing throw and catch. Maybe you’re right, mattyfrommo; this could be the best ever. Quite a followup to last year’s game, with that incredibly improbable pass and pinned-against-the-helmet catch on 4th down near the end of the game.
by BTown Birds fan on Feb 1, 2009 10:36 PM EST reply actions
Am I the only one who thinks Ben Roethlisberger is pretty overrated?
I mean, he’s a solid NFL QB, but he’s not in the top tier of NFL QBs. Put him on a team without an excellent defense and at least a functioning offense (a la the Bears or the Bucs) and he wouldn’t get all the hype he does.
The artist formerly known as...
Mr Redbird @ Viva El Birdos
PowerOfDixieland @ Track Em Tigers, other SEC blogs
He should have gotten the MVP imo.
If it weren’t for his keeping plays alive, Holmes wouldn’t have had the opportunities to make those catches.
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
and his ability to turn a sack into a
“ball thrown 20 yards from a receiver from well outside where the tackles lined up, but somehow not called an intentional grounding” is unsurpassed. In tonight’s game, he did that at least a couple of times, as well as managing to turn a sack into a “ball thrown 20 yard from a receiver but somehow not an intentional grounding” into a “personal foul” at least once, maybe twice, since they only drew the red lines once and he was rightfully called foul on the one they drew the lines on. but the fact that he got away with the other {definitely one, maybe two} was truly impressive. That’s a 25 yard minimum “gain”, each time, and he did nothing to achieve it other than not get hit and wait till the other guy jumped to hit him before he “threw” the ball at no one.
(not meaning this as a slight against R- I just seriously disagree with most of the “new” NFL rules, and R seems to be the master of using the rules against the other team. Which is fine, but once upon a time football was about actually playing football better than the other team, rather than getting yellow flags thrown for your team and against the other team). It’s still an amazing display of skill, and I’m not joking; I just don’t think it’s “football”, as I recognize it. it’s like that guy who took the fall when zidane head-butted him in the World Cup; it was the right thing to do, strategically, but I can’t respect him or his sport as long as that kind of thing decides championships.
OTOH, I guess, the awful new-ish rules ARE football, now, so I am wrong to complain. And it explains why i watch maybe 2 or 3 football games a year now, instead of 10-15. And I’m guessing the NFL doesn’t miss me. so yeah, whatever.
still cannot accept that Rachael was Chani.
I didn't think he was overrated
he threw some amazing passes, and was big enough to not get tackled in a couple of key situations… not all QBs are giants
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 2, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
yeah he's not overrated, i've watched him since college, he's pretty good
i just hate that he plays for the steelers. why can’t the Cowboys draft a good QB?
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
barf
A teenage boy with a sprit inside
Of a Samurai warrior who long ago died.
Now he's O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
O....O....O....O Oshikuru!
My oh My he's a demon Samurai
Who's the guy who had to die.......Oshikuru!
i know, Dallas sucks
i’m sorry i’m a fan. i can’t help it.
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS
ManRam
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
test
sig test
"So in first grade it was tell about your dad day. Most of the kids came up and said "my daddy’s a doctor" or "my daddy’s a lawyer" or anything like that. Then, it was little Billy’s turn. Little Billy got up in front of his whole class and said "my daddy is an exotic dancer for other men. He performs sex shows for other men and then goes home with them and takes money to do what they ask him to!" His teacher was very shocked, and took him out in the hall. "Why did you say such things?" she said to little Billy. "Well, really, my dad is a Cubs player, but I was too embarrassed to say it in front of the class." - Mr Redbird, from the TESS thread
Position averages
Sorry if this is a repeat, I read about 50 posts. One problem with assigning league average rates to individuals is you are assuming all individuals are league average. With 1B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions, being more of "power" positions (hit with a little more pop "on average") being 5/8ths of starting position players, all "contact average" positions, (2B and SS) will look to be under average. Also, when taking an extraordinary play such as Pujols, and applying any type of average, he will look lucky.
I like the idea, but maybe these rates should be adjusted by position. You may then see that Pujols performed more to an average, or above (lucky), and Kennedy, Miles and Co. will appear average to unlucky. Just a thought.
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