The Virtues (and Dangers) of Adam Dunn

by JWO on Dec 8, 2009 3:22 PM EST

As the Hot Stove season swings into high gear, and we continue the Holliday watch, I thought it might be interesting for the community to talk about a possible alternative - Mr. Adam Dunn. I know he's been discussed (and dismissed) by some. Joe Strauss suggests that the offense would be offset by gosh-awful butchery in the field. But lets take a moment and consider the possibilities.

First, the positives:

Power: Dunn hits a fair number of homeruns. He's got six years of pro ball where he has managed at or very close to 40HRs. More than adequate "protection" for Albert.
Durable: The past six years, Dunn played in no fewer than 152 games each year. He doesn't need to be spelled or platooned. He just goes out there every day. And hits home runs.
Consistent: Have I mentioned Dunn hits home runs? Let me add this then. From 2005-2008, he hit 40HR EACH YEAR. He slacked off slightly in 2009, managing 38HR. I can forgive that.
Affordability: Dunn's contract calls for $12M this year, and then he's a FA. That's comfortably 6-8M less than Holliday is looking for, and then he turns into a Type A for two draft picks.
That Lovely OPS: I thought this was worth throwing in... Dunn has a career OPS of .903. I know that OPS isn't the end-all to be all stat, but that is mighty impressive at the price point.
Clubhouse Presence: The Cards have some leaders in the clubhouse, but Dunn is a classy guy, doesn't get in trouble, works hard and would fit in well.

Ok, in fairness... on to the weaknesses:

Fielding: Yes, he's bad. I'll just use the UZR rating for simplicity. Dunn managed an exciting negative 15.3 rating in 2009 for the Nationals in Left Field. That tracks fairly closely with his career lines, where he always seems to be somewhere in the teens.
Under Contract: For us to get Dunn, we can't just sign him. We have to trade something of value to the Nationals. I'm not certain what that would be at this point. The farm system is pretty sparse, after the Holliday and Derosa trades last year. My suspicion is it would require an active player along with a higher end farm-hand, like Garcia or Craig.
Strikeouts: Another item I thought I would add for fairness. Dunn's totals aren't astronomical for a cleanup hitter, but they are pretty high. He averages around 170 per season. A lot of at-bats, but that's still a lot of whiffs.
WAR: Dunn managed a 1.2 WAR last year, and a 1.3 WAR the year prior. I'm not a sabermetrician, so this kind of bewilders me. I kind of see his value much higher. But again, I'm trying to present both sides of the equation.

So with all that in mind, what says the community? I am not saying Dunn is the solution per se, but given our need for an impact bat, he does satisfy that requirement. An outfield with Dunn, Rasmus, and Ludwick would be at least adequate from a fielding perspective (maybe Colby shades to his right a bit more...). And one final intangible - Dunn would be in a walk year, and motivated to perform for the "big contract". What say you folks? I would like to hear what the wise old birds on the site have to say about this team configuration...

Tweet Comment 55 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

WAR

the WAR thing is entirely due to the fact that he plays the 2nd easiest position on the field (LF) worse than any other player in baseball. In fact, I’m not sure there’s a 1B who is anywhere near as bad at that position as Dunn is at LF, so it’s perhaps reasonable to say that he is the WORST defensive player in the whole of the major leagues. That is not small potatoes, especially for a team that values defence.

Also, he’s trending downwards (if you believe UZR) as the years and waist size creeps up. He IS a superlative hitter, but he’s just not capable of playing the field anymore. WAR would have him in the 3-4 win range if he was a DH, comfortably above average, indeed, verging on being a major star. But as he gives up in the field nearly all he creates with the bat, and you just have to watch him to see that. He’s got no range, none whatsoever, and he doesn’t catch a lot of what he gets to (a .968 fielding percentage, regardless of how crappy that stat is, is BAD. He doesn’t get to many balls, and when he does, he drops one out of every 30 or so).

That’s the crux of it. He’s a superb bat, but I just don’t see how he’s a solution in the NL.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 8, 2009 4:53 PM EST reply actions

and nice post btw

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 8, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

a .968 fielding percentage?

i did not know that was even possible for a big-league OF’er. it blows my mind more than his horrible UZR.

don’t know why the yanks wouldn’t want him dh’ing in that stadium.

good post, JWO.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Dec 8, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

.947 this last season....

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 8, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

WOW.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 8, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

when you only get to balls that are hit about 18 inches either side of you in LF

it takes a certain amount of “talent” to be dropping more than 5% of them….

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 9, 2009 6:11 AM EST up reply actions

at least he never pulled a Holliday

Some days you live some days you die and some days you just want to create a redwing just to kill it......

by Go_Blues on Dec 8, 2009 6:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

WAR pretty much answer's the debate

And Felonious summed it up nicely. When you have a player, who’s at best average, and will cost 12 million + prospects to get, that’s not a good deal for you to make.

Good post though.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 8, 2009 9:32 PM EST reply actions

what if MO can get him for some low level starter & get the Nats to pick up say $4Mil?

what then?

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 8, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions

Then we are still paying 8 million for a player very slightly better than Craig

by vivaelpujols on Dec 8, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

gotcha

by gdm426 on Dec 8, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions

There is some argument that his superlative hitting would be more valuable

in the contextual environment of playing alongside pujols in the order. Every dinger he hits (or walk he takes) is more valuable in a situation when he’s hitting behind a guy who is on base nearly 50% of the time than it is in a context-neutral environment, so there’s maybe an argument that, EVERYTHING else being equal, it makes sense for us to sign a guy whose value is concentrated in his bat.

Trouble is, he’s so over-valued I don’t think the “pujols context” can really make up for it. If the league valued a 2-WAR player with great defence the same in $ terms as a 2-WAR guy with a great bat, we’d be better off getting the great bat guy as long as we don’t have a good #4 hitter.

Still, I’d rather have him in LF than Craig next year. I just wouldn’t want to pay more than a minimal amount of cash or a non-prospect to do it.

Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 9, 2009 6:17 AM EST up reply actions

we just need to get Scotty back to play third

then we can shift Boog out to play a rover-ish LF with Dunn, and…

BOOM! We have ourselves a decent LF mutant!

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 9, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions

with an arm that'll throw people out from LF at first...that'd be awesome

by ADMDrayson on Dec 9, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

I do have some of my best ideas when coming off of a drunk

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 9, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

what have we learned?

by gdm426 on Dec 9, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

to be drunk more often?

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 9, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

you are correct sir!

by gdm426 on Dec 9, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

If he's coming here

He needs to bat in front of Pujols. With an OBP near .400 and his high strikeout rate, hitting him in front of Pujols is bound to generate more runs than having him hit behind Pujols.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 9, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

or maybe we can go all Rally

and put him at #4 with Pujols at #2?

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 9, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

With Ludwick third?

That would be great sabermetrically, but Tony would never do it.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 9, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Here's what I can't figure out.

Say you’re the Yankees:

Why not just trade a couple of prospects to Adam Dunn and DH him? He fits your organization perfectly - he takes a ton of walks, he’ll probably hit 50 dingers with that pennant porch in right field, and you neutralize all of his bad attributes by taking him out of the field. I would venture to say that he’d be a 1.000 OPS player at Yankee Stadium and probably around .850.900 away from it.

Seriously — he might even like hitting there so much that you can sign him to a 3 year contract after the season. He’s younger and better than Matsui is, and he can play the OF sparingly if Posada needs a day off behind the plate and you want to DH him.

I just don’t get it. It would also make sense for the Yankees to sign Jim Thome.

What a wonderful problem to have….

“What?!? You can’t play defense? Well in our league sonny, you don’t have to! And we don’t care if you hate America — most of America hates us anyway!!!”

I really hate the fucking DH….

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 8, 2009 10:03 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

SBN'd -- Again

did I mention I hate SBN’s formatting shortcuts too? I really gotta stop using hyphenated points on here. It always turns out bad.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 8, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Rec'd

DH makes me sad

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 9, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

wow

perfectly stated

by let'er rip skip on Dec 9, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

DH is super lame

I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 10, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions

national league is the last bastion of baseball

don’t they use dh in international play and foreign leagues and college? even the high school pitchers i’ve seen for awhile generally don’t bat – though sometimes they call it “extra hitter” rather than dh.

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Dec 10, 2009 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

Good outweighs the bad with Dunn

Yes, the guy hits 40 homers a year, but his BA is low and he strikes out more often than not. In my mind, he is very similar to Chris Duncan – with the exception that he hits a lot of homers.

If the Cards are unable to sign Holliday, they should not sign Dunn. I would much rather see Allen Craig or Joe Mather in left instead of signing Dunn to a big contract and watching him struggle.

Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!

by zoomzoomj88 on Dec 9, 2009 4:05 PM EST reply actions

you mean

the bad outweighs the good?

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 13, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

no, man

he means bad, like, good. And good, like bad. Man.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 13, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

so hes a one dimensional player

his one dimension is pretty great. if hes such a horrible turd of a player why are major league teams more than happy to shell out millions of dollars on him. The guys who put together teams for a living always find value in his talent. Its the guys sitting in their kitchens crunching numbers who are always so down on him. I trust the guys who are actually earning a living at this to recognize ability. Sometimes you need to leave the metrics on your calculator and use your eyes. This guy bombs the ball. Thats all he’s got, but its really helpful to a team for a guy to drive in a ton of runs year after year. We’re more than happy in stl to praise one dimensional defensive guys, why not do the same for offense when its really above average. Id love to have this guy in our lineup if we cant get MH back. Honestly if we could get Dunn and another couple decent players Id rather upgrade the whole team instead of just left field

"I don't take no anesthetic. Did Lincoln ask for any girlie gas when they blowed his head off?"

by boba schrute on Dec 9, 2009 9:51 PM EST reply actions

in my view, its all about weighing out good and bad when making a decision about players. true, here in stl we do tend to praise defense, however if you really think back to most of the defensively oriented players you are thinking of, their bats are still much better than dunn’s glove. i would never dispute that offensively dunn is a tremendous player, and if we were and AL team (God forbid) i would be all for bringing him in. bottom line at 12 million per, and giving up who knows what to the Nats, its just not worth it to sacrifice that much defense and upgrade payroll by that much when it could be used at 3rd or in the rotation. realistically, it shouldnt take the numbers, the eye test suggests that too.

by let'er rip skip on Dec 9, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

There are lots of GREAT defenders that no-one wants on the team because their bats suck

Shane Robinson for one, Jon Jay to a lesser extent, and also guys like Tyler Greene and (before this year) Brendan Ryan. You have to at least be replacement-level with the bat even if you’re a wizard with the glove, and this year guys like Boog and Rasmus exceeded that. No-one wants to see Shane Robinson in the OF because of his .600-odd OPS in AAA.

Equally, guys who have a great bat but poor defence at their position can be valuable – Jason Bay, Ryan Howard, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin. All these guys, however, can move from side to side vaguely and catch balls hit right at them. Dunn can’t even do that.

Dunn is HISTORICALLY bad at defence. He’s a DH. He’s not a bad LF, he’s a DH. He’s David Ortiz or Jim Thome if you put them in LF. He gets to NOTHING, is fat and slow, takes bad routes, AND HE STILL DROPPED MORE THAN 5% OF THE BALLS HE ACTUALLY GOT TO LAST YEAR!

As a DH, he’d be very good, very good indeed. But he’s no good to an NL team because he is PHYSICALLY UNABLE to play the field. He’s not just a one-dimensional player, he’s a zero-dimensional player because his fielding counts as minus one….

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 10, 2009 6:58 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I see it more as

1d… obp + power – defense = 1

I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 10, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions

i was being all melodramatic and shit

point is, Dunn is bad unless he’s sitting on the bench or swinging a bat. Any other baseball-situation, not good.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 10, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

we could buy him faster legs

and have them attached

I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 11, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

Last offseason

the other 29 execs who make the decisions let the Nationals give him a back loaded 2 year/$20mm contract on Feb 11th, a week before ST opened. Dunn made $13mm in 2008, so he signed as a free agent and took a $5mm pay cut.

by ubeddie on Dec 9, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

i'm the furthest thing from a dunn advocate

but a lot of guys took pay cuts last year, IIRC – abreu comes readily to mind – and some were even market-forcefully retired, like edmonds

"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."

by cardball on Dec 9, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

abreu

was hurt by his type a status

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 13, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

I trust the guys who are actually earning a living at this to recognize ability.

Because the Washington Nationals front office have shown an excellent record at “recognizing ability” in the last few years.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 10, 2009 6:51 AM EST up reply actions

It would be rather dull around here if we all stopped stating out opinions on matters

I sometimes think some people who leave comments like that one want us to do just that.

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 10, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

Dunn would be a great player to get in a trade

but I’m not sure we have the right players to trade for him

I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 10, 2009 12:46 AM EST reply actions

i knew MO would regret letting PK go

by gdm426 on Dec 10, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions

If we traded tham a player of about 1 win NEGATIVE value, that'd be about fair, given his contract is overpaying him

Nick Stavinoha?

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 10, 2009 6:59 AM EST up reply actions

Nah, Stavinoha is great in the CLUTCH , can't give up players like that

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 10, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, but

on a dollar/war basis, stav is a much better deal

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 13, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

his negative production sure is cheap!

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 13, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

Dunn managed an exciting negative 15.3 rating in 2009 for the Nationals in Left Field. That tracks fairly closely with his career lines, where he always seems to be somewhere in the teens.

That -15.3 was accumulated over just 500 innings, but a full season’s worth would approach 1400. Dunn played all season, but spent more time at 1B. The UZR/150 stat gives a rate per 150 defensive games, or about a full season. Dunn’s LF UZR/150 was -38 in 2009, -20 in 2008, and -21 in 2009. His career numbers are in the teens, but that’s bolstered by decent defense across his first few years.

He’s a -18 UZR/150 for his career at 1B, BTW. D-H D-H D-H!

by astrostl on Dec 10, 2009 2:22 PM EST reply actions