Some Like It Hot, So Let's Turn Up the Stove Thread Til They Fry
by mattyfrommo on Dec 30, 2009 8:30 PM EST
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PrintSo it seems that the Hot Stove Season might finally be starting to get really moving now. At least one hopes that the Bay signing will hasten some moves on the Matt Holliday front. Or heck, even the Johnny Damon front. Geesh, I am so ready for something to happen that I just put Damon up there? Please save me Hot Stove. You're my only hope.
It seems that the Hot Stove Thread has lost some steam lately, so I suggest along with having the latest news/rumours in here, we should bring back something from last offseason. Make some predictions on where you think the biggest names lefy out there will land. Or don't, but if you do ,please do not include Todd Wellemeyer.
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So who's left in free agency?
1) Matt Holliday
2) Johnny Damon
3) John Smoltz
4) Ben Sheets
5) Brett Myers
6) Orlando Hudson (?)
7) Felipe Lopez
8) Adrian Belre
9) Marlon Byrd
Honestly, if we don’t sign Holliday, I would just like to see us get Beltre, Smoltz and Sheets for the same price.
Assuming we got those three guys
If we took Smoltz and Sheets, I think we have the challenge of fitting in about seven starters.
1) Carpenter
2) Wainwright
3) Lohse
4) Penny
5) Garcia
6) Smoltz
7) Sheets
Actually, that would be a fun list to try and order…
if that happened
it would probably be a good thing so JAIME could be in AAA to start the season. I am pretty sure that even if we had those other six starters, it would not be a bad bet to think at least half of them would need a break on the DL at least once.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I think Garcia should be in the minors
He missed nearly an entire year due to injury and was only moderately successful in AAA before that. He’s 23, I see no reason to give him a major league job next year.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 30, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
service time clock for Jaime started
IIRC, Garcia went on the DL as a major leaguer and accrued just over a year of service time for the time between when he was called up 7/10/08 and then optioned to Memphis 8/20/09. He’ll be 24 in July and is under team control for five more seasons.
Coming back from injury will probably limit his total innings next season. I’d rather see those innings with the big club in the second half of 2010 and have him full time 2011.
If we had all of them,
then Smoltz is definitely our closer to start the season.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I think we should do the piggyback
Carp/Smoltz
Garcia/Sheets
Wainwright
Lohse/Boggs
Penny/Yadi (this is Tony’s new invention – the reverse battery)
Each turn should go at least 7 innings, thereby reducing the need for two bullpen arms.
Furthermore, anytime one starter goes extra deep, he then flip-flops with the reliever on their next turn.
Result is 1,000 innings from this new structure, at 3.10 FIP, an exodus of middle relievers from the major leagues, and a new book by Michael Lewis.
linkage
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
As long as we stay away from #2 on that list
I’d be down with your backup plan I think.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 30, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, if we don’t sign Holliday, I would just like to see us get Beltre, Smoltz and Sheets for the same price.
Beltre wants (and should probably get) something close to $10m/yr in free agency, $8m at the very least. Sheets wants (and won’t get) $12m, my guess is he’ll end up settling for $6m or so, perhaps with incentives. Smoltz surely won’t sign for less than $5m guaranteed, perhaps with some incentives. Between them, that’s north of $20m. I think we perhaps COULD sign all three, but it’ll cost more $ than Holliday will.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:03 AM EST up reply actions
Other options on the FA market still:
Erik Bedard.
At the lower end of the FA pitching market there’s still a few back-of-the-rotation guys:
Jarrod Washburn and Vicente Padilla are arguably the biggest names. Both are probably sub-Lohse-esque innings eaters, I’d imagine. Washburn is downright weird, in that he’s MASSIVELY out-performed his FIP over his career (and in each of the last 5 seasons), by half a run per 9 innings (that is pretty huge), despite being a flyball pitcher. He’s some sort of outlier, but I can’t really work out how he’s done it (although the Mariners’ strong OF defense has helped in the last two years, he’s pretty consistently done it even before that, so who knows).
Jose Contreras is available, he’s a bit old and injury-prone now but he’s been consistently above-average for the last few years and actually quietly put up very good numbers in 2009. He’d be a fair option in the $5m range, although he might want a bit more.
Jon Garland is still in the ballpark of being a durable 2-win guy. I’d rather go high-upside, high-risk, personally, but there’s something to be said for a guy who can put up 200IP of ~4.50 FIP. I actually think he’s perhaps a better option than Myers. He’s a groundballer who strikes no-one out and has good control – pretty good fit for Dave Duncan right there. Bill James & CHONE both project slightly above-average years in 2010. I expect he’ll command a Penny-type deal, maybe even a little less.
Doug Davis is basically a lefty version of Kyle Lohse, so-so stuff & K%, FB/cutter with a curveball arsenal, and lots of groundballs. His walkrate was a bit of a red flag last year but I guess he’ll be cheap (~$5m or so?) and is a good bet to put up 200 roughly average innings.
Crafty Livan Hernandez and his 84mph fastball could probably be had for $3m or so, but it’s a stretch to see him out-performing our youngsters by much, and there’s not a lot of upside in his stuff. Control and durability are excellent, however.
Bartolo Colon and Odalis Perez are getting towards the dumpster-diving range. Neither probably has much upside but I imagine a league minimum deal (or thereabouts) would be enough to entice them to spring training.
So, there’s actually more pitching there than I thought. A lot of these guys may be forced to sign <$5m deals by the time February rolls around, so if any are still available, they’d be fine as a 5th starter option. Jose Contreras in particular looks like a good buy-low option; he’s had horrible LOB% rates the last two years, despite maintaining a 2:1 K/BB rate and excellent groundball rates. I think he looks as good as someone like Brett Myers and is likely to be cheaper.
There’s a bunch of bullpen options, although not too many great ones:
Kiko Calero and Russ Springer we all know about. Both are murder on righties, less so on lefties, and figure to be reliable late-inning guys.
Octavio Dotel is probably the best non-type-A arm left, he’s also got a fairly pronounced platoon split but arguably has better stuff than Calero, despite similar numbers. I assume he’ll be looking for $3-5m, though.
There’s a few reliable lefties we’re unlikely to have any interest in, including Joe Beimel, Brian Shouse, Scott Eyre, and Eddie Guardado.
Chan-Ho Park is good from the pen, but wants to start again.
Kevin Gregg isn’t as bad as Cubs fans would have you believe, and isn’t a type A (no arby offer). Might be worth a gamble on a cheap deal, although I have little interest.
JJ Putz is the best dumpster-dive candidate, although I suspect he’ll still be wanting some decent money, it’s hard to see anyone giving him it. I don’t really know what to make of him, tbh.
Doug Brocail, Joaquin Benoit, Eric Gagne and Troy Percival are the only possible dumpster-diving options that seem to make much sense. They’d probably all take something in the region of the league minimum/minor-league deals/ST invites. I wouldn’t mind kicking the tyres on any of them, really.
There are a few other position players of potential interest that you left out:
Miguel Tejada (no, I don’t want him either, but he’s one of the bigger FA names left)
Joe Crede & Pedro Feliz in the “all glove, limited bat” 3B-stakes.
The various LF platoon options, none of whom are liable to cost much (in descending order of hitting ability, probably something like Cust, Hinske, Church, Giles, Gross)
There’s a couple of other backup CF options – Reed Johnson, Scott Podsednik & Austin Kearns (who is more of a 4th OF who could play CF, most likely).
Xavier Nady
Fernando Tatis
Randy Winn, who’s actually not the best fit for us but who’s been an above-average hitter every year but two since 2003 (one of those years being 2009, when he sucked royally, thus might be available dirt cheap). He’s also an excellent fielder. Much of his value was lost last year because he was below his career BABIP (which is unusually high, perhaps due to his speed) and basically none of his FB went over the fence. Maybe that’s age, but a lot of it is probably due to bad luck, and he was nearly average (believe it or not) thanks to an enormously productive year with the glove (and his excellent baserunning). Actually, the more I look at this guy, the more I like him as a buy-low candidate. He’s a switch-hitter who’s slightly better from the right-hand side, and (given his awesome defence in RF) is likely a fair bit better than Ludwick as a backup CF. His struggles last year, as I said, seem mostly luck-based, as his LD% and BB/K ratio looked fine. If he’s going for ~$3m and we don’t sign Holliday, I’d definitely take a look at him as a 4th OF-who-can-platoon-a-bit, as he’s flexible and still reasonably productive.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 5:28 AM EST up reply actions
it's gettin' mighty hot!!
Bay – Mets, pending physical, 4y/66m and 80m total if it vests
DeRosa – Giants, 2y/12m quotes abound here
Kelly Johnson – D’backs, 1y/2.35m ’011 arb-eligible
Buster blogged:
* Despite preliminary talks, Olney finds a Padres extension for Adrian Gonzalez to be “very, very unlikely.”
* The Dodgers “are in the chase” for free agent starter Joel Pineiro, with the Angels and Mets other suitors. The Dodgers were first linked to Pineiro by MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick on December 8th. With a chunk of the Juan Pierre savings already spent on Jamey Carroll, Pineiro seems out of their price range.
* Olney guesses that Matt Holliday will ultimately sign for five years and $82.5-85MM, with options and/or incentives that could “dress it up as a deal that could be worth over $100MM.”
* The Orioles continue to hunt for a pitcher and corner infielder. I should note that they were initially linked to Pineiro, but maybe the $9MM committed to Kevin Millwood takes them out of the mix. An Erik Bedard reunion could be a possibility.
and
there were a lot of shenanigans today until about 3:20pm.
Buster Olney:
Sources: The Cardinals’ offer to Holliday is believed to be over $100 million.mlbtr (Dierkes):
Additionally, Ringolsby replied to my email and clarified that he’s been told the Cards’ eight-year, $140MM offer is guaranteed both in years and dollars.Jon Heyman:
#cards offered holliday at least 6 years and $100-million-plus at some point. but he didnt accept and is still talking to multiple teamspast week: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/30/cardinals.holliday/
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Just as a general rule
I’m not very big on the thought of committing yourself to big dollars, and especially years, to corner outfield. However, it seems to be turning in the Cards favor on Holliday, and he is the best option at his position in terms of production. Things can change, but I’m not seeing who’s going to sweep him off his feet anymore. I was expecting to see a stronger market form for him by now.
Now there’s a lot of misdirection floating out there, so I don’t know the real terms of our offer, but if it is in that 5/85 range as Olney indicates I think I turn slightly positive on that deal. At Heyman’s 6/100+, I turn pretty ambivalent to negative depending on what that “+” means. And if we are talking 8/140, then I’m going to get upset. I’d like to keep a window for a rebuild later in the decade here. I hope Mo holds the line on this and doesn’t outbid himself, because it seems a better opportunity may exist than I had previously believed.
I’m wondering where other people’s breakeven points are with Holliday in both years and dollars?
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 30, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not even sure, myself
I think years/dollars will be a moot point if at any time there is the whisper of “no-trade clause”. I suspect that is the real hold-up, not the dollars.
Though it does seem pretty shitty to throw those numbers around the rumor mill — nothing to ingratiate him with us fans.
p.s. Heyman quite likely fulla’it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 30, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
No Trade Clause
and length of contract seem to be pretty high on Holliday’s list. The AAV has to beat Bay’s from Boras’ point of view, but not necessarily Holliday’s if the NPV, length and NTC are there. And don’t overlook the Yanks or Red Sox beating a low ball offer.
No! Trade Claus!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 7:54 AM EST up reply actions
#cards offered holliday at least 6 years and $100-million-plus at some point. but he didnt accept and is still talking to multiple teams
I dunno. I just don’t see who these supposed “teams” are that are in on Holliday. Who can seriously afford to take on a contract of that magnitude right now, AND has a spot in the OF?
NL West:
D’Backs: Poor.
Rockies: Poor, already been turned down by Holliday.
Dodgers: No money due to ownership divorce.
Padres: Ha ha.
Giants: Probably don’t have the cash and have just signed DeRosa.
NL Central:
Cubs: No money, need a CF.
Reds: Cutting payroll.
Astros: Multiple long term deals, spent what little money they had on middle relievers.
Brewers: No money to spend.
Cards: Possible.
Pirates: Ha ha.
NL East:
Mets: Just signed Bay, probably no money left and nowhere to put Holliday.
Braves: Possible destination, but I’ve heard nothing on this front and they’d probably have to move Cabrera again, and perhaps even free up some payroll. I doubt they have the $, and they need to find a spot for Heyward. Unlikely.
Nats: Nope.
Marlins: Holliday would bump their payroll by about 50%. Not happening.
Phillies: Blew their load on Halladay and already have a stacked OF.
AL West:
Angels: Not impossible, I suppose. Perhaps have the $, although they’ve spent some of the cash they saved on not signing Lackey or Figgins. They’d have to move some of their OF dead wood though.
Mariners: Already blown their load on multiple targets, I think.
A’s: No money to spend.
Rangers: Don’t think they’ve got the money or the OF space.
AL Central:
Tigers: Trimming payroll like crazy, already got a bunch of big multi-year deals. No way.
Twins: Poor.
Royals: Ha ha.
WhiteSox: No money to spend.
Indians: Too poor.
AL East:
NYY: Ruled themselves out. Definitely have the money & space to fit him in, but the luxury tax looms large, especially at $100m+ for Holliday.
Boston: Cameron and Lackey deals seem to rule out much more spending, and Beltre seems a cheaper, better fit. They’d have to shift Ellsbury too. Seems hugely unlikely.
Rays: No money.
Orioles: They’ve got the cash, but they’re probably not contenders, and have a stacked OF. To me, he just doesn’t seem like a fit for them, and the “rumoured” $130m offer has the distinct aroma of prime bullshit to me, given that it wasn’t reported by anyone who has any links with the Orioles.
BlueJays: Cutting payroll, I can’t see them being involved. Would just’ve extended Halladay if they had a spare $20m/yr.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The Yankees and Angels are the only teams I could see getting on Holliday
The problem is both those teams scare me in terms of how much they would be willing to offer. If the Yankees decide they want Holliday, they won’t care whether it’s 100 or 150 million.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2009 4:31 AM EST up reply actions
its all about price
plenty of people jump in if the market is $13-14 million. Someone would do that just to have the ability to sell him later on. At $16-18 mil per — ain’t too many names. The secondary trade market will keep price from falling below “market”.
Just win
all these apparently desperate and obviously wild price rumors the day after
make me think of boras as baghdad bob.
“what? no! there are no bidders in the 4-year range! none!”
“my feelings – as usual – is that we will slaughter the mid-market team and make the texeira deal look puny.”
“They’re not even [within] 100M [of the Yankees]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in the bidding. This is an illusion … they are trying to sell to the others an illusion.”
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 30, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
By the way
This is a question I have often asked myself, so I wouldn’t mind some opinions.
The DH:
If, for instance, the MLB ruled that one way or the other the DH would be eliminated or added to the NL, which would you be in support of? All DH or no DH?
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
oh eff, no DH. no no no no.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
No DH. easily
I find AL baseball and their silly DH rule fails to hold my attention. In fact, I would probably step away from baseball for awhile if that ever happened.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
No DH.
I don"t think DH baseball is real baseball.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Dec 30, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
except Travis Hafner?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:20 AM EST up reply actions
By the time Holliday is 36 years old
We’ll ALL wish there was a DH in the NL for our 20 Million Dollar Baby.
For the record
I agree with that the DH isn’t true baseball. I just keep seeing Carp’s AB where he blew the oblique, which some would argue cost him the Cy Young.
However, think about a league where there is no DH. What happens to people like Adam Dunn or David Ortiz who can’t play a position. I mean, I know it’s a baby-type thing, but I would hate to take away baseball from people just because they specialize at hitting and not at defending.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
well maybe they need to learn to defend.
Or accept that baseball isn’t for them.
There isn’t a position in basketball where you can come on court and just shoot jump shots and not have to defend or rebound or play the ball. There isn’t a position in soccer where a guy can just come on to take free-kicks and corners (otherwise I guess David Beckham would’ve been doing that for a few years!). There isn’t a position in rugby where a guy can just come on for set-pieces or take goal kicks and not have to play the field. There isn’t a position in handegg where a guy can just come on and kick field go…. ah, actually, scratch that one.
If those players can’t play a position, then they’ll have to sign on for a team as a pinch-hitter for the league minimum (or close to it) and occasionally come on in the late innings, take an AB or two, and play a couple of innings of first-base.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:24 AM EST up reply actions
bingo.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Actually
In basketball, coaches make offense-for-defense substitutions all the time (especially in late-game situations)
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
That is only if play is stopped or they call a time-out to do so,
otherwise said specialist has to play both sides of the ball. Most coaches won’t spend timeouts just to get a certain player in. They do but rarely.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 31, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe not rarely,
but they can’t call a timeout every time the ball changes possession just to change personnel or else they would soon be out of timeouts. So the player has to play both sides until the next dead ball. This is where DH loses me, if you’re going to play one side then you have to play the other side.
Hell, even the quarterback and kickers in handegg have to tackle people from time to time.
You're the fail to my win?
"There is not a better feeling in the whole world than knowing that you are the best team in both leagues."- Bob Forsch on winning the 1982 World Series.
by MaytheForschbewithyou on Dec 31, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
not the same thing in any way shape or form
the player brought on still has to play defense if the ball ends up at the other end. In baseball, the DH doesn’t play defense, is guaranteed never to have to do so, and doesn’t get penalised in terms of the number of offensive plays (i.e. ABs) he can make (in fact, he’s REWARDED for not playing defense by never having to be taken out for a late-inning defensive or PH swap, which would happen more if he had to play 1B).
I’m not particularly against the DH as I think higher scoring baseball is generally a good thing, but I would have little time for great hitters who can’t play the field complaining that they’re “only” making ~$1m/yr as a pinch hitter if the rules changed.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 7:59 AM EST up reply actions
Also, I disagree with your "baseball isn't for them" statement
Was baseball not for Frank Thomas? He was one of the best hitters to ever play the game, but DH’ed a majority of his career. Does that make him a bad baseball player?
If there were no DH rule, he probably would have bumbled around out in left or played 1B for his entire career, all while pounding the ball. He still would have been a solid player.
And, for the record, I hate the DH rule as much as the next guy.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Big Hurt
Most of his great years offensively occurred while he was playing 1B as well. He had 1311 games as a DH and 971 as a 1B, and really only became a full time DH after his prime when had injury issues.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
And that's the thing
most of the really great players who were DH’es would just be put in LF or 1B. The losers in this sort of deal would be the defensively minded 1Bmen or LFers that AL teams would have to displace in order to play their DHes.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
If there were no DH rule, he probably would have bumbled around out in left or played 1B for his entire career, all while pounding the ball. He still would have been a solid player.
Yes. That’s fine then. And as 4stick said, he did play a lot of his best years at 1B.
If, however, he wasn’t a good enough hitter to make up for his iffy defense at 1B, THEN maybe baseball isn’t for him. But being one of the best hitters of his generation, yeah, fine.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 7:57 AM EST up reply actions
what did the next guy ever do to you?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
That's a moot point
Their bats are so good that someone will find a position for them to play just to get their bat in the lineup. Teams were hiding bats in the corner outfield and 1B positions for nearly 100 years prior to the DH becoming a rule in the early ‘70s, so to state that these guys wouldn’t get to play because of their defense is simply wrong. If you’re good enough at one thing, they’ll find you a spot on the field.
Kiki Vandeweghe was literally the worst NBA defender of all time — the guy could not guard his own shadow, in fact, his shadow lit him up for 30 points in a game of 1 on 1 — yet he was also a prolific scorer, and had a long NBA career because of it.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Really?
I’d say 5 high priced jobs disappeared, at most, there are a ton of teams that have washed up veterans making very few dollars or cost-controlled guys at their DH positions. The high priced, DH only guys I can think of:
Hafner
Burrell
Ortiz
Thome – who currently doesn’t have a contract for 2010.
The Yankees have Nick Johnson there, probably, the Angels have Matsui who’s making $6M next season, Seattle has Griffey at $2M or so, and about half the teams will employ someone there who is making the league minimum (Toronto, Oakland, Minnesota, Texas, Kansas City). Not sure who’s going to be the DH on the White Sox or Tigers because all of their DH candidates also play the field in some capacity.
Burrell and Hafner would be the only two guys that would completely lose their jobs without the DH. The Red Sox would move Youkilis to 3B and play Ortiz at 1B, and Thome doesn’t have a job right now, so he can’t really lose it.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I'm not sure the Sox would move Ortiz to 1B
at least without a solid rebound in his hitting.
Burrell might catch on as a LF somewhere.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Contracts are overvalued
because the players can be “hidden” at DH. The players wouldn’t lose a job, but the contract would be lower. Would Boston have signed Ortiz to a $52M contract if they had to use him in the field?
Without the DH, AL teams would replace one full time player and equivalent salary with a bench or super sub player. I did a quick search of last year’s main DH and come up with total payroll for 14 DH’s at $91 million or $6.5 per team. The only league minimum was Lind, the high guys Thome, Matsui, Guerrero, Ortiz, Hafner and Burrell. The rest were paid about $3M.
Contracts aren't overvalued at all.
Would Boston have signed Ortiz to a $52M contract if they had to use him in the field?
Yes. Hell yes — that’s such a silly question. His bat would have played at 1B just fine. It’s not like Boston was starting a modicum of All-Star 1B over the stretch that Ortiz has been with the Red Sox.
Without the DH, AL teams would replace one full time player and equivalent salary with a bench or super sub player. I did a quick search of last year’s main DH and come up with total payroll for 14 DH’s at $91 million or $6.5 per team. The only league minimum was Lind, the high guys Thome, Matsui, Guerrero, Ortiz, Hafner and Burrell. The rest were paid about $3M.
They’d be replacing the DH hitter with a bench player who makes little to no money, so they’d have MORE money to spend on the position players, assuming that they’re spending the same amount of cash either way. Of the guys that you listed, only Ortiz and Hafner have more AB’s at DH than at an actual position, while Matsui and Guerrero’s contracts were not signed when they were expected to expressly DH. Guerrero was the best RF in baseball when he signed his deal with the Angels, and Matsui was a league average LF.
Your logic is faulty. They might actually spend MORE money on position players if there wasn’t a DH, meaning that one of the 8 regulars would probably make more cash if there wasn’t a DH to begin with, even if one of those 8 regulars becomes a DH. I can’t think of too many players who’ve gotten less pay simply because of their defense. Cust and Dunn would be the only two I could think of off the top of my head.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Yes. Hell yes — that’s such a silly question. His bat would have played at 1B just fine. It’s not like Boston was starting a modicum of All-Star 1B over the stretch that Ortiz has been with the Red Sox.
What about 2007, when Lowell was a 5+ win 3B who hit 120 RBIs and Youkilis was a 4-win 1B? Although I tend to agree that, when the deal was signed, Ortiz would still have been a very valuable commodity at 1B…
Hafner and Thome are about the only guys who would’ve lost out on significant $ in the FA market in the last couple of years, I think.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Um
Now we’re changing the subject I think. Ortiz would have been under contract already at that point, so either Youkilis doesn’t play or they play him in LF or something. As to whether the team would have been better off, I don’t really know. Perhaps they make Florida include a different player in the Beckett deal, perhaps they deal Lowell to someone else, maybe they deal Youkilis for pitching or a SS, who knows. The point is that Ortiz still would have been signed to play 1B. We’re talking about a franchise that won two titles with Manny Ramirez playing LF, so I just don’t think that it’s an issue.
It’s silly to question whether or not they would have signed Ortiz when they did based on whether he would have had to play the field. The guy was MVP material for three straight seasons in the middle of the decade.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
My logic is faulty?
They might actually spend MORE money on position players if there wasn’t a DH, meaning that one of the 8 regulars would probably make more cash if there wasn’t a DH to begin with, even if one of those 8 regulars becomes a DH
Why would a team pay more just because they had the money available?
They're not paying more
They’re paying the DH player even though he’s playing a position, hence, he’ll make at least the same amount as he did before (since poor defense and a great bat usually doesn’t equal a decrease in pay), and someone else on the team might make more money since there isn’t a high paid DH on the bench as the ninth “position player” who’s in the lineup every day. Follow?
FWIW, teams have a specific budget that they stick to, and generally try to approach their budget number every year by using that money to improve the ballclub in whatever way that they can. So if you don’t have a DH, and that DH player is now playing 1B, you’ll have one less 1B on your roster, which leaves you with more money to spend on bench players (although they’re actually “bench players” instead of hitting mercenaries, and won’t make as much money), pitchers, or other position players. So stating that the union would be against the repeal of the DH because of monetary means is really against their own interest, as the money would be spread around and spent on other players.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Agree to disagree
IMO, if the DH is eliminated, AL teams would not spend the same amount of money on payroll. A payroll consisting of nine full time position players would be greater than a payroll with eight full time position players. The teams would adjust their budget accordingly.
I don't see this happening, so I don't understand how you can claim that it's true.
The Yankees have Nick Johnson as their DH, and he’s not in the top 15 on their roster in terms of yearly pay.
I don’t understand why you think that they’d spend less when 2/3 of the league doesn’t have a high paid DH anyway.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
IMO means "in my opinion"
not that I am claiming a statement is true.
Johnson is actually tied for 7th highest paid position player on the Yankees and 12th overall.
Thanks
I know what it means. I also thought Granderson made more money than that and I forgot that Matsui was gone. Still, if they sign Damon, he’ll be tied for their 8th highest position player and 15th overall, so I wasn’t too far off.
You are entitled to your opinion, but I’m entitled to evidence to the contrary.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I think its near impossible to tell whether a club would keep the same salary budget
with DH as without DH. A salary budget would depend on many factors, such as revenue, other expenses necessary, rest of division/league/MLB, the market, and needs. Its not done in a vacuum. The Cardinals are not going to spend 100mil in salary a year if they feel they can remain competitive and win at 80. But, if they and their fan base demand competitiveness and they have the total finances to accommodate a higher budget they will go there…
If no DH, a club would lose the ability to put a high offensive valued player who loses their offensive value due to horrible defense. So, I would think that player, if all teams across the MLB had to worry about total value like that, a good bat but horrible D would lower the player’s salary.
Fourstick, you really haven’t provided “evidence” just your analysis which is really just as much of a guess as anyone’s.
I think if you lost the DH you would have a glut of good bats but poor D on the market and you’d see salaries dropping for those players and you’d have them spread out or lose jobs.
You might have more money to spend on position players..but of course that’s because all of a sudden everyone but a pitcher is a position player.
Ahem
- DH’s, as an average $$$ per position, are not the highest paid position for American League teams.
- Teams hid poor defensive players at places like 1B, LF, and RF for YEARS prior to the DH being created in 1972.
- Stating that DH players (generally good hitters) wouldn’t get paid as much in a market without a DH position is a ludicrous assessment. More than likely, players with defensive strength in the corners or defense only 1B would suffer more than the DH types. Why? Because teams have always valued offense at those positions more than defense. Always. Have you ever seen a defensive player get a $70M contract just for his defense? No, you haven’t. It’s a very poorly thought out assertion.
- Assuming that all DH’s can’t play the field better than Adam Dunn or Jack Cust is also a horrible assumption. There are DH’s that could play the field at a slightly below average or average level, they may just be on teams that have a better defensive player at that position who can also hit, and therefore relegate the worse defensive player to the DH role.
I’m looking at facts here — he’s basing his on assumptions that:
- All DH’s are bat at defense.
- All DH’s make an above average amount of money.
- Losing DH’s would decrease the overall money spent by American League teams.
None of those things are true, and the last one is a very big assumption that doesn’t make any sense economically. There are a shitload of other variables that account for payroll and average salary, as you stated above. Stating that changing one of them will automatically reduce salaries across the board is ridiculous.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Have you ever seen a defensive player get a $70M contract just for his defense? No, you haven’t. It’s a very poorly thought out assertion.
Again, I don’t have a horse in this particular race, but a certain left-fielder with the Tampa Bay Rays, whose value is largely tied up in his all-world defense, could well end up signing a ~$100m contract next year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 5:04 AM EST up reply actions
Crawford?
He won’t get $100M, I’m pretty sure about that, and he’ll also be getting paid that because of his ability to steal bases. It won’t be because of his defense in LF, that’s for sure.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
but a big chunk of his value is defense
arguably more so than his offense. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to term him a “defensive player”; any team signing him is doing so with the proviso that he’s an all-world corner outfielder (perhaps even historically the best corner outfielder ever, at least arguably), who would probably be a + defender in CF. As a hitter he’s only a bit above average.
I agree with the premise that teams historically over-pay for offense at the neglect of defense, but I think that’s changing somewhat recently.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 5:15 AM EST up reply actions
Ozzie Smith had a really large contract for his day
That was almost completely based on his defense. It’s not comparable, because the money back then was so much smaller. But it is worth mentioning
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
He's also the best defensive player to ever play the game
in addition to being an above average offensive SS for most of his career in St. Louis. Average OPS+ for a SS in 1988 was about 86 — Ozzie’s was 97 that year.
Sure, most of his value came from defense and he was the highest paid player for exactly one season in his career (‘88). But to say that his ONLY value was defensively, similar to DH’s having ONLY offensive value is misleading.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
well a DH (while being DH) does only have offensive value...
unless you count his being just an all-around good guy and shining other players shoes, etc.
This is kinda what I have been trying to point out
The DH usually gets paid a lot of money to DH, but say he didn’t get to hit for a pitcher and had to hit for a position player:
- Would you see teams looking at defensive specialists and paying them big $$$?
- Or would they pay the DH the big $$$ and find some guy making the minimum to play the defensive position knowing he won’t have to hit.
I’m guessing the latter, which means that most teams value a great offensive player more than a great defensive player, even though both are probably at the same level of scarcity.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
it seems anecdotally that yes, teams value offensive
contribution more than defensive. My guess is that the best defensive player/worst offensive player in the league would have less money in contract then if he was the worst defensive/best offensive player.
However, if you were to have an immediate change to get rid of the DH, there would be a market problem where all of a sudden there are a bunch of players who were marginal on D or bad, or protected from injury so got to sit out on D and only bat, that would have no ready position. Its hard to tell what would happen in such a scenario..really any prediction is a guess as good as Rosenthals’ seem to be.
I’m guessing the latter, which means that most teams value a great offensive player more than a great defensive player, even though both are probably at the same level of scarcity.
I disagree vehemently with the last statement. I imagine most teams have a Tyler Greene or Jon Jay-type in AAA. Not many teams have a Jason Bay languishing in AAA. I suppose you could argue that the offensive bar for defensive players is higher than the defensive bar for offensive players (because the positions on the easy end of the defensive spectrum are generally pretty easy to play), but I’m pretty sure there’s a very plentiful supply of guys who have fantastic gloves but borderline bats, whereas there’s not so many guys with bats 20 runs above average and terrible gloves.
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by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 5:18 AM EST up reply actions
Elite defenders
are as scarce at elite hitters with this caveat:
Both have to be at least replacement level or better at the other skill, be it offense or defense.
I guess I didn’t make that clear in my last statement. Tyler Greene is a bad example, as is Jon Jay, because their MLE’s on offense aren’t even replacement level for their particular positions at the MLB level. Mark Hamilton, OTOH, is probably at least replacement level defensively at 1B and could be worth 1-1.5 wins with the bat over the course of the season, same as Greene or Jay with the glove. Are you saying that there are more Greene’s and Jay’s than there are Hamilton’s? I don’t think that’s the case.
Of course you’re going to have all-defensive SS that are toiling in the major leagues, but it’s because they can’t hit a lick.
My question is, if you had to use the DH for a position player instead of a pitcher, would more of these guys be getting paid handsomely for their awesome defense (20-25 RAR), or are the DH’s still going to be getting the lions share of the contracts while the great defenders get a pittance? The answer is the DH, because it’s far easier to find 15 RAR on offense than 15 RAR on defense, even though elite hitters and elite fielders are just as scarce.
This really is the whole point of the exercise. An elite hitter can be worth 65-70 RAR whereas an elite fielder is generally worth no more than 20-25 RAR, therefore, why would you pay an elite fielder with replacement level offense over an elite offensive player with replacement level defense? You’re costing yourself between 4 and 5 wins just by making that choice, therefore, it’s not economically smart to tie up money on great defensive players unless they are above average on offense.
That’s my point — elite defensive players don’t get paid as elite defenders, they get paid as elite defenders with above average offense, where an elite hitter with replacement level defense will almost always get overpaid for his offense despite his complete lack of talent on defense.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Actually,
replacement level for defense is computed as league average, while replacement level for offense is two WAR below average.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yeah
I was going to say that. I think it would be better to calculate “runs above average” for each skill. I imagine there’s plenty of guys who are +20 runs above average (if you include positional adjustments) with the glove, and not very many who are +20 with the bat.
A big part of that, as you alluded to, is probably that a lot of the glove guys are terrible hitters. I suppose it’s all kind of semantics, but I feel that defense is generally more plentiful than offense.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 8, 2010 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
chemistry ftw!
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Further research
I had some time to do some research and was incorrect on my initial statement.
The following information was obtained from a report published by the Major League Baseball Players Association titled Average Salaries in Major League Baseball 1967 – 2009 The link is to a PDF copy of 18 page report..
The study includes a summary of the mean salary by position for the AL, the NL and the Majors (page 7). To qualify for inclusion in the calculation, MLBPA used 100 games at fielding positions and 80 games at DH. For SP, the threshold was 19 starts, for relief pitchers, less than 10 starts more than 25 relief appearances.
According to the salary study, the 2008 mean salary for the DH position was $7,506,036. Eight players qualified for the calculation, the same number of players who qualified for the shortstop category. This mean salary was the third highest following 3rd base and 1st base. In the previous year study, the mean salary for DH position was the highest of any position at $8.5M.
I also found a source of searchable salary data by position for 2007 and 2008. The links use the same criteria as MLBPA yet provide detail by the players included in the mean calculation. The MLBPA report showing 2007 salary information is available if you click on a players details then scroll down. Be careful, the link downloads a PDF without any warning.
Bottom line is I was incorrect to say 14 high priced jobs. I should have used a more generic term like several. I stand by my comment that the union would not be a proponent of the downsizing.
I'm not saying that I think they would
tand by my comment that the union would not be a proponent of the downsizing.
I think that’s true, because baseball’s union leadership since 1994 hasn’t been all that smart, imo.
My point is that I’m not sure it’s actually in the best interests of the entire union membership to defend the DH position from elimination, because there’s only 14 of them total, defense first guys don’t get much out of it at all, and it might actually be better for a good number of bench players NOT to have a DH — they might end up getting paid more.
According to the salary study, the 2008 mean salary for the DH position was $7,506,036. Eight players qualified for the calculation, the same number of players who qualified for the shortstop category. This mean salary was the third highest following 3rd base and 1st base. In the previous year study, the mean salary for DH position was the highest of any position at $8.5M.
Nice work. This surprises me a little bit, for a couple of reasons:
- Only 8 players qualified with 80 games at DH in 2008? Wow. That’s just over half the teams in the AL with players who DH full time, you would think it would be higher.
- Obviously A-Rod’s contract really skews the 3B numbers, and I wonder how the OF numbers would look if you could calculate them by position.
- I’m actually surprised the average was that low with only 8 players qualifying. Most of the full time DH’s (Ortiz, Hafner, Thome) make some pretty serious dollars. I figured it would be higher than that. I wonder how it works out with a 40 game cut-off, which would probably include some DH platoons and such.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Info on # 3
from a previous comment of mine in this sub thread.
I did a quick search of last year’s main DH and come up with total payroll for 14 DH’s at $91 million or $6.5 per team. The only league minimum was Lind, the high guys Thome, Matsui, Guerrero, Ortiz, Hafner and Burrell. The rest were paid about $3M.
I’m at work so I don’t have the data I gathered or time to recreate. I used B-R to find players in 2009 who spent more than 50% of their time at DH, and IIRC, there was one for each team. I don’t know the minimum # of games though. Then I pulled the salary data from Cot’s to arrive at the $91M number. I double check the info tonight.
I'm not saying it's wrong
Just that I’m surprised it isn’t higher.
I would bet that it’s down around $6M or so when including everyone with 40 games at the DH position, but PA’s at the DH spot might actually be a better way to break it down, now that I’m thinking about it.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
2009 data on the two break points
using mlbpa’s 80 games at DH threshold, the average salary in 2009 is $7.2M. 12 players fall into the category (Det & Tex didn’t have a player make the category). Dropping the threshold down to 40 games, adds five more players to the category (two for Det, Sea and Tex) and the average salary falls to $6.2M
Here is a link to a google spreadsheet with the data.
I say no DH
But the only way that the Players Union accepts that is if they bump the roster to 26 players. At that point, I don’t know if the owners go for that, particularly in the “poor” team department. An extra 500k is a bunch to some of these teams.
i love the DH, most pitchers can't hit to save their lives & they should definitely add it to the NL
aaaaaaannnnnnd let the bashing commence,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,NOW
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
YOU ARE INTELLECTUALLY AND SEXUALLY INADEQUATE.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 3:55 AM EST up reply actions
i said bashing, not spreading the truth
hey while you’re here, do you know anything about the show Demons on the BBC? i forgot to watch the premier tonight & from the description i read it looked worth a viewing or two
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
i really wouldn't mind a dh in the NL
i just want it to be the same in both leagues. i would probably prefer no DH, but you can’t deny that when there’s two outs and a runner on second and kyle lohse steps into the box you don’t groan. the flipside of that is that it is hell of sweet when chris f. carpenter hits a grand slam
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Or runners on second and third and Greg Maddux on deck
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I like the DH
I don’t understand why people like to watch Todd Wellemeyer bunt ineffectually at crappy pitches.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Fritz
I don’t need to hear about your fantasies with football players.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Jan 3, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i like it the way it is
plus its neat in interleague to see it the other way a few games a year
by I miss Jack Buck on Jan 3, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Had there been a DH rule in 1914,
Babe Ruth never would have picked up a bat. Therefore, the DH rule would have DESTROYED BASEBALL AS WE KNOW IT. How dare we endanger future baseball generations by insisting on a DH rule?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Since I'm already destroying baseball
Am I the only one that doesn’t care about Ruth? I think he’s been mythologized (don’t know if that’s a word) to the point where there’s as much falsehood as truth when he’s discussed. I just don’t really care about how good he supposedly was at a time when athletes weren’t anywhere near what they are now.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I like the point you make about the time
I am OK with some mythologizing of Ruth because he was so far ahead of his time. But what really irks me are the people who act as though Ruth could just waddle up to home plate in a modern baseball game and hit just as well as he did in his prime.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
that's a tiny bit unfair, though
if Ruth was around today, i doubt he makes it to the majors without a seriously better fitness regime etc.
He’d have lived an entirely different life and had a very different career, probably been a lot fitter and better-coached, but I assume the physical attributes that made him such an outlier in his time would still have him at the top of the game in this era.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:22 AM EST up reply actions
That's all true
But I don’t know if the average Joe takes all that into account. I’ve heard people talk as if 1920’s Babe Ruth, that is “hotdogs and beer” Babe Ruth, could just waltz into a Yankees/Red Sox game and be “as good as A-Roid lulz!1” etc. etc. Sure, if he had been born in the 1980s or whatever, he’d probably have a very different lifestyle. But there’s also a decent chance he’d end up a football player or a curling player or an accountant. So that’s taking on a lot of whatifs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You could also ask
whether, say, A-Rod would be as successful back then, in the era of headhunting pitchers, hard slides, and what are, today, minor injuries ending players’ careers.
These arguments can be fun, but they are ultimately fruitless
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
A-Rod's not white
He wouldn’t have been allowed in the league.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 4, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
You do get my point, however
and back then, hispanics of non-African ancestry were considered white legally. Our notions of race have been quite fluid over the years.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Oh I get your point
That was tongue-in-cheek
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
Also, A-rod's career could have ended with his recent hip labrum injury.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
There are a lot of players without much of a fitness regime, other than
eat a lot…and lift weights.
So you don't care about Gehrig or Raja or Foxx either?
What about Musial? Or Ted Williams?
You can only compare guys to their era, but to say that those guys wouldn’t have been successful in today’s game, with today’s advanced fitness and nutrition, is stating that you don’t respect their level of talent, and I don’t understand why that would be the case — they were clearly very talented baseball players, with Ruth being one of the most talented ever to play.
We go nuts over Ankiel making it as a pitcher and then making it back as a hitter, but you don’t respect the fact that Ruth was a major league pitcher, and a good one, for the Red Sox before being put into the outfield because his bat was so spectacular? That doesn’t strike you as being really talented? Hell, there were only like 16 teams back then, so each team was much more talented and played each other more during the season.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I am on your side in this particular argument, but
Hell, there were only like 16 teams back then, so each team was much more talented and played each other more during the season.
ignores the lack of black/asian/latin american players around during the Ruth era.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Sure
but that doesn’t mean that the league was completely diluted of talent. The Yankees had All-Star capable players wasting away in their farm system for years.
Latin American players didn’t even exist back then — they weren’t playing organized baseball in Venezuela or the Dominican Republic in 1915 I don’t think. Same for Asian players. Japan didn’t even have a baseball league until after WWII.
You can make a case for the black players as there were some very talented players in the Negro Leagues, but I don’t think that the talent level for those players is going to increase the overall talent in the entire league by more than 10% or so.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I might be crazy
but I don’t like the DH only because I like it when managers can go all crazy on situational changes. I don’t watch a lot of AL baseball, but when I do it seems that there is nowhere near as much double switching and the like. I admit it, I do like watching Tony go CRAZY TONY in those situations.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I agree
I’m not crazy about the DH, but watching Chris Carpenter hit just makes me want to go to the bathroom.
dude, inside voice
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
The bathroom echoes.
Now with extra feisty!
by spants on Jan 4, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
FOR CLOSER
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 3:18 AM EST up reply actions
I WANT SMOLTZ AS OUR PRIMARY LOOGY
backed up by Jason Motte. Trade Miller and Reyes.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions
I hate it when our LOOGYs don't OOGY
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
eh
keep Miller
trade the Diner
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 31, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Keith Law speaks of the Walrus!
I just had to read this for myself. I’d wonder if the audio’s available, except I really don’t want to hear Keith Law’s voice.
http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/2009/12/quick-fucks-things-and-stuff.html
They also addressed the idea of bringing in someone like Carlos Delgado as a stopgap at first or DH, and Law said that the only problem with that would be Delgado’s taking away at-bats from Lind, Snider and Wallace.
“Wallace is close,” he said, “and Lind and Snider absolutely should be in the big leagues.” About Wallace he added, “If you’re not asking him to learn third base anymore, you can probably play him opening day. The kid just hits, he’s got such an advanced approach— especially for a left handed hitter, that age, to hit left-handed pitching the way he does.”
I just have to know… is there some kind of magic formula you have to learn to play third base? How to hold a runner on? How to throw to the guy at first base? How to … stand there while your shortstop is the cut-off man, turns the double-play, and generally gets the balls you can’t fall on? I mean, is it just the ‘hot’ part of the ‘hot corner’, the reflexes?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
why the f'k do the jays need a DH?
Jebus, some of these reporters are just totally incompetent. I realise we need SOMETHING to talk about during the hot stove season, but seriously, the Jays are about as stocked for “guys who can crush the ball but likely can’t play the field very well” as any team in baseball, and they’re all under team control for a while.
Adam Lind, their DH in 2009, hit 35 HRs, OPSed .932, and crushed the living hell out of the ball on regular occasions whilst putting up nearly 4 WAR. Yeah, of course the BlueJays are looking at Carlos F’ing Delgado. Jeez.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:29 AM EST up reply actions
Right....
but you also have to realize that J.P. Ricciardi used to read these columns and then do exactly what these columnists told him to do. Like:
- “We better lock this Vernon Wells guy up for a lotta years — he’s immensely talented.”
- “If we sign Alex Rios long term, we’ll have the best young outfield in the majors!”
- “John MacDonald is the key to our defense, we need to keep him for at least the next two years.”
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I'm sure that's probably depressingly close to the truth
seems weird that Ricciardi was held up as a paragon of good sabr-sense for a while. Probably also a good job they canned him…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
I think
it’s not so much that there’s some magical formula as that he can’t play 3B at ML level yet, and either needs to demonstrate that he can, or be moved.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
and not even Oquendo could fix him?
though if he wasn’t in ST last year (disclaimer: still 2009), Oquendo was tied up with the WBC and The Man Who Would Be Cornerstone, so maybe he couldn’t work with him.
/tongue-in-cheek
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Goold weighs in
Sources with knowledge of the negotiations said progress is “strong” and a resolution could come as early as next week.
Holliday’s representatives and Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak confirmed ongoing talks.
“I’m still hopeful,” Mozeliak wrote in a text message. “But there is still work to be done.”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I know how people feel about Bernie
But I looked at P-D to see if he had a comment after reading this, and he says this…
“The Cardinals are comfortable and confident in their position.
If it isn’t done by early next week, I would be surprised.
And if it isn’t done by early next week, then Mozeliak and DeWitt will have a decision to make… will it be time to move on?
-B "
I don’t always agree with Bernie, but I think he doesn’t throw something that direct out without talking to Mo. I also agree that the offer, whatever it is, needs to be pulled if they continue to fish around for a market to play against us much longer.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 31, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The thing is
Boras/Holliday need us just as much as we need them. If we suddenly pull out, that leaves them with (AFAIK) no concrete offer on the table, in January, with the other three big spending possible destinations (NYY, NYM and BOS) effectively ruling themselves out. I agree that setting a deadline for a fair offer is reasonable. Give him 6 years, $96m, plus some incentives or something to perhaps take it to a nominal $100m. That’s $16m/yr, take it or leave it, and then I agree we need to consider calling his bluff and moving on.
Then we’ll see who these other “mystery teams” are.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:35 AM EST up reply actions
names I'd like to see considered
Sheets, Valverde, Lopez
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions
has valverde lowered his price yet?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 31, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I haven't even heard anyone interested in him
I’m guessing once Holliday signs somewhere, it will open up the floodgates for more signings
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
Arizona
wants Valverde back. They are waiting for his price to come down.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Oh, and could you get Mike Adams for the bullpen, please?
josh byrnes is really not having a very good off-season
in my view…
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by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 8:05 AM EST up reply actions
From what I have heard
Regarding Scherzer, the D-backs couldn’t trust him to be a starter due to the fact that he can’t develop more pitches. He has a great fastball and a plus changeup, but that’s all he has. He hasn’t used a slider since the minors, and the D-backs thought he wouldn’t be more than a relief guy. I can see with this point of view how they might wanna let him go and grab some quantity in the SP department. Jackson will at least be above average and quite possibly better, and with Kennedy, you never know. They essentially swapped 2 bullpen arms for 2 starting arms.
Heilman? Well, I really don’t know what the hell that was…
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Scherzer threw plenty of sliders last year
13.4% over his major league career so far. FWIW (which, in my opinion, is not very much), Fangraphs linear weights classify it as by far his best pitch.
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by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 3:59 AM EST up reply actions
I'm looking at something completely different then
Apologies, but basically, the point stands that he won’t be more than a bullpen guy in the future according to the D-backs.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
no, he still costs a first round pick
greedy butthole
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
+1
no to type A closers who aren’t called Joe or Mariano.
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by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I kinda hope we don't sign Holliday
This shit is getting old, and we could spend that money better
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
If it's a fair price, I still want him
mainly because the options I liked better have mostly been signed by other teams (and at bargain prices, I might add). Seems to me if one or both of Smoltz/Sheets sign somewhere before Holliday is signed by another team, we’re actually going to struggle to find any meaningful options to spend our money on.
Despite my previous hot stove post, I’m not hugely keen on Beltre (wouldn’t be bad on a seriously cheap deal), I don’t really like Byrd (minimal upgrade over what we have) or Hudson, and I wouldn’t want Myers particularly as I think Sheets and Smoltz are both better and likely to sign for similar cash (Harden & Duchscherer, who’ve already gone, too). I suppose Cust (LF) and Branyan/Lopez (3B/2B) would be reasonable targets, but that still leaves us with the best part of $10m to spend.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 4:39 AM EST up reply actions
I know it's dragging out but...
I’m not completely convinced we could spend it better. I’m convinced we could spend it on a slate of players (like VEP mentioned above) that would give us a higher potential value, but the higher potential doesn’t necessarily mean a higher expected value. Another way to look at it would be that we’d get a similar expected performance if we played the season out 1000s of times because the highs of VEPs set of guys (just as an example) would "cancel out" the lows (the injuries, etc.). Then it becomes a matter of preference, do you prefer 5 WAR with a small standard deviation (little chance of 7-8 WAR, but also little chance of 2-3 WAR) or 5 WAR with a high SD (bigger chance off 7-8 WAR and a bigger chance of 2-3 WAR).
For the record I know that VEPs list likely projects to >5 WAR, this was a hypothetical. If you go with VEPs list you’d also have to credit the Holliday option with cost controlled players at the other two roster spots so that pushed that option above 5 WAR also.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
But conversely
you have to look at what each player is replacing. Say we signed Beltre, Smoltz and, I dunno, Marlon Byrd or something. They’re probably all worth 3 WAR or so, which is pretty good, but they’re probably all replacing players who are in the 1-2 WAR range anyhow (Freese, garcia and Craig respectively) so in total we’re probably only getting a 1 WAR upgrade at each spot for a grand total of maybe a little over 3. Holliday is only a 5 WAR guy, with a bit of upside, like you said, but he’s therefore a 4-WAR upgrade over Craig, and we do (perhaps) still have a little wiggle-room to upgrade at one other spot.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 31, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Right
I agree and that’s a little bit of what I was vaguely referring to in the last part.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
The first paragraph
while based on the current situation is sorta hypothetical. None of it is in a vacuum clearly and you have to look at the whole roster construction not just moves in isolation as Mr. Monk mentioned.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Money Quote
I’m convinced we could spend it on a slate of players (like VEP mentioned above) that would give us a higher potential value, but the higher potential doesn’t necessarily mean a higher expected value.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Which is why
coincidentally I’ve been so enamored with simulation studies of roster construction, FA contracts, etc.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
And I agree that in the Cardinals situation
Meaning that we are currently looking at around 85-88 wins, it’s better to play it safe with Holliday than sign more risky players like the ones I mentioned.
Steve – I think you could do some great work if you combined your simulations with playoff probability.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
uh huh
I agree completely, and it’s on the to do list. I may do some stuff at PAH9 soon because I’ve already run plenty of cardinal roster options and can use the historical playoff probabilities so I don’t have to run the whole league.
For BtB I’d like to run the whole league since that’ll take into account division strength etc.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
I have a spreadsheet that you might be interested in
It’s basically a non-sim way to get playoff odds for the entire league(s). It uses team projections on a normal distribution of all possible win totals with a standard deviation of 10 wins, and basically measures playoff odds out of that. The problems are that it doesn’t consider the interrelation between teams records, but that’s not a huge deal I don’t think.
It’s a little bit rough right now because I originally made it for the midseason, when I had to deal with current wins + expected wins, but when I fix it up, I’ll pass it around the BTB crowd.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
cool
yeah that’d accomplish the same thing.
I have alternate reasons to run the sim on the league anyway (mainly I’m still tinkering with inputs and the more I run it the more I get insight there), so it’ll be kinda cool to compare the 2
by stevesommer05 on Dec 31, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Another potential angle
It appears that DeWitt is willing to up payroll a bit based on the offer(s) to Holliday, whatever it/they may be, and also the upcoming bankbuster with Pujols. I believe DeWitt is willing to go a little higher for what is deemed “the right guy”. In this case, Holliday.
If, for example, Holliday ends up elsewhere, and was offered 18 million a year by us, this doesn’t necessarily mean there is still 18 million to spend on other pieces. I believe that there are rosier revenue side assumptions that come with Holliday, and that adjusts their salary level accordingly. Particularly on the front end. Signing Holliday does not influence my purchasing decisions in the least, but it does matter quite a bit more to some others. The Cards understand this, they’re pretty business savvy.
I just doubt it’s as simple as saying “Well, we offered Holliday X dollars. Let’s spend X dollars on A,B, & C now instead”. I’d bet a few million get taken off X dollars if the premier FA option is taken off the table. Of course it’s just all idle speculation on my part, but what else are you going to do in winter?
by Merry CRasmus on Jan 3, 2010 2:45 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with this
If, for example, Holliday ends up elsewhere, and was offered 18 million a year by us, this doesn’t necessarily mean there is still 18 million to spend on other pieces
I also think we shouldn’t just look to spend that money for the sake of it. Whilst I think a lefty in LF (Cust or whoever), another bat somewhere, ideally a switch-hitter and/or someone who can handle 3B (Lopez) and one of the better SP arms (Smoltz/Sheets) should be high-profile targets, and I’d like to add someone like Calero or Springer in the pen, I don’t see any real need to go after other high-end FA names (Damon/Beltre) just to fill a hole, when they’re likely not very big upgrades over internal or cheap FA options.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:01 AM EST up reply actions
I guess it's just wearing on me
Also, I’d hate to see Holliday turn into our version of Soriano or Carlos Lee. If we don’t want to spend all that money on this class of free agents, let’s save it to extend Albert.
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
What happens if Albert becomes Carlos Lee or Frank Thomas?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Touche
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't interrelationship play a key here?
Doesn’t holliday’s presence in the middle of the lineup next to Pujols mean more than a bunch of scattered WAR? Isn’t that why TLR wants him so bad? I’m sure someone has done this analysis — isn’t the argument with Holliday that he makes everyone around him a bit better so that you get an additional return by the fact that everyone’s performance is enhanced?
Just win
Maybe but,
from a metric standpoint WAR (at least the fangraphs version, you can build WAR off of different offensive metrics) is context independent, so a 5 WAR Holliday is 5 WAR on any team. And in general 5 WAR is 5 WAR, so if you have upgradeable space on the 25 man roster then adding WAR in any fashion has about the same result.
From a lineup protection perspective it’s been shown that it’s more myth than reality. I did a specific look on Holliday protecting Pujols here It’s the same stuff that VEP has linked before, and as has been noted I’m in the process of doing a more thorough look at the concept. I’ll fanshot it whenever I finish (likely an MLB wide take on BtB and a Pujols centric case study at PAH9).
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
thanks -- be interested to see your results
if the fastballs on 2-0 hold up with a larger sample size, isn’t that significant? That’s a big hitter’s count and goes to the issue that pitchers don’t want to walk Albert and face holliday. Gotta think if Albert is getting more fastball strikes on 2-0, that’s a pretty good thing for the world’s best hitter. must result in some quantifiable upside in Albert’s WAR.
Just win
i don't think
most hitters would have a problem walking albert to get to holliday. the only guy in mlb that makes you even kind of want to pitch to albert more is arod. now, if we used bat albert behind matt, pitchers will give matt pitches to hit because they don’t want to walk holliday in front of pujols. holliday gets better pitches, he gets on base better. runner on in front of albert means he’s more likely to get pitched to. pujols for cleanup hitter in oh-ten!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
The key there
is the guys on base aspect, more so even than Holliday getting better pitches to hit (something I’m not completely convinced will be the case, AKA it’s up for investigation). That being said, ideally it’d probably be Holliday second and AP 4th.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
who'd hit 3rd? i've always liked Luddy hitting second
i have no idea why when he was struggling this past summer TLR didn’t have him hit there. he had everyone but him bat there & don’t know why he didn’t let Luddy
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I was thinking of writing this up in the fanpost about hitting 2nd
If we’re going with optimal (ie sabermetrically by The Book) I’d do Holliday 2, Rasmus 3, Pujols 4, Luddy 5 I think.
If we must go Pujols 3, holliday 4, then I’d hit Luddy 2 probably
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
see,
colby needs to be a much better obp guy than he was in ’09 for me to even consider hitting him infront of albert. even if tony disagrees
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I think he will be
if he’s not you could flip him and ludwick
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
he probably will be
either way, what’s you rationale for splitting up albert and holliday?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I’m basing it off of the research done in The Book. Quoting an old thread at BtB (which may have been quoting directly from The Book)
The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
interesting stuff
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
colby 5 makes sense
since SB’s are most valuable in the 5-6 spots, IIRC, and I doubt that he’ll be a higher-OBP player in ’10 than Skip to lead off vs RHP. It would be interesting to bat him 5th vs RHP and turn him loose on the basepaths.
Luddy 4th makes the most sense, though, since he’s a high-SLG low-ish-OBP player. Cyril Morong’s work seems to show that OBP is least valuable in the 4 spot and most valuable in 12359, while slugging is least valuable in the 1 and 3 spots, and most valuable in the 2, 4, and 5-7 positions. Based on that, IMHO, it should be Skip/Pujols/Holliday/Ludwick.
Ideally, they’ll IBB albert every time (batting 2nd) and we’ll score 900 runs.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
here's what the baseball musings lineup generator gives
Used the bill james prediction from fangraphs for everyone but Freese, whom I used the 2009 MLE for. Surprisingly, some of the best lineups don’t have albert leading off, and it really likes the skip/pujols/ryan/holliday/luddy lineup.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i don't think
i can buy into albert leading off. that’s definitely wasting home runs
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
well, he'd get ~50 more PA's leading off
that alone would be worth around half a win. And, of course, the pitcher would be hitting 8th. I think we’re undervaluing OBP skill when we think about a player like albert- the goal is to score runs, not have albert drive runs in, and getting on base with as few outs as possible and having your best players hit as often as possible are the best ways to do that.
30 of his 47 HR’s in 2009 were solo, btw.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
it's an interesting idea
i’d like to see a more numbers oriented person do some math and see what kind of overall team WAR we could expect from that lineup generator vs a lineup something like skip, holliday, molina, pujols, ludwick, rasmus, freese, pitcher, ryan; in the vein of the book’s suggestions
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
of course
it’s also worth noting that the book says the most differnce any lineup ordering will make is about 1 WAR. which is significant, but not blow you away significant. also, i think it’s less likely that 75% of albert’s HRs would be solo if holliday wre in front of him as opposed to skip and rasmus
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
yeah
and it’s also worth noting that that difference is calculated (I believe) between the worst possible lineup vs the best, and as the worst probably has albert hitting 8th or something, realistically the difference between the “ideal” batting order and what TLR throws out there is going to be fractions of a win.
I think you also have to bear in mind that the lineup studies quoted do not (I believe) take into account anything to do with LHB/RHB – it may be advantageous for us to put Holliday, Albert & Luddy together in the order but then you have to consider the advantages a team has in late-inning situations vs LOOGYs and ROOGYs by splitting up lefties and righties in the order, even if it’s not completely optimal by run-generation models.
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by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:21 AM EST up reply actions
the stats i quoted don't account for splits at all.
I was lazy and just plugged in the projections from fangraphs and Freese’s 2009 milb translation. Someone else can do something more in-depth, if they want. It’s really easy.
Anyway, the difference between the worst possible and best-possible line-ups using the lineup generator is around 130 runs, as you can tell by clicking the link in my post. of course it could be that the lineup generator is fubar and shouldn’t be used, but I haven’t seen anything that proves it (but I haven’t been looking hard, either). Pinto’s a stand-up guy, though, and if something like that was done I’m sure he’d take it down or modify it.
Anyway, I think that “one win” quote from Tango has to do with moving one player around in the batting order, not 9, but I could be wrong.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i dunno
just based on intuition, 13 wins seems reaaaaaally inaccurate. it’s all the same players either way. you’re just moving them around
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
130 runs?!
that, just intuitively, sounds ridiculous. I may be wrong, but everything i’ve read on lineups makes me think that can’t possibly be right.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, it's a lot
but when you give 700 PA’s to a pitcher with a .200 OBP (IE, well below replacement level) as opposed to giving those to albert pujols, your team makes a lot more outs and gives up a lot of opportunities to score runs.
Just swapping albert to 9th and the pitcher to leadoff “creates” about 160 additional expected outs per 700 PA’s, from one spot in the order, and a lot of those outs come with albert and Holliday on base, minimizing the expected runs scored for what should be your highest-leverage base/out state. it also means albert, luddy and Holliday will get around 500-550 PA’s instead of 700, which is pretty costly.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
OK, so at least one lineup study backs it up:
Tom Ruane uses markov chains to show a 189-run best-worst lineup split for the 1961 yankees (154 games), and 171 runs for the ‘04 Giants (162 games). So 130 runs isn’t off the charts.
I think the problem with the intuitiveness of this is that the “worst possible” lineups are not lineups that anyone is going to ever use. Moving albert between 2nd or 3rd or 4th is going to be worth at best a few runs. But moving him to 9th is insane.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
ok, one more link
dude at camden crazies figures out how bad the worst possible player in the world (him) would be, batting 9th for an AL team. it’s the same orde rof suck-itude- IE, one player could keep the yankees out of the playoffs, if given 600 PA’s.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i'd like to counter that argument by saying
just imagine how many more runs the team would score if they could get players that can get on base at a consistent clip in front of & behind Albert. he shouldn’t be a solo HR player, he should be a 2-3run HR player. his talent is being wasted by hitting so many solo HR’s
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
our OBP ahead of albert in 2009 was absolutely horrible
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 3, 2010 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
it's a shame there aren't any great OBP guys on the FA market this year
outside of the high-end guys and Chone Figgins (who I’m not keen on but who I admit would’ve been a great addition to hit in the #2 hole), it was a pretty poor year for OBP guys. Most (if not all) the remaining free agents, Holliday aside (and Cust vs RHP) are average or worse in the OBP dept. I suppose we can only hope that McGwire gets one of Luddy or Rasmus taking more pitches and getting on base more, but, given their previous career numbers, I’m not very optimistic that anyone other than Schu, Albert and Holliday (if we sign him) can put up a .350+ OBP.
Against lefties, at least, Yadi makes some sense as a 2-hole option. I realise his legs make him a double-play threat but he’s averaged in excess of .350 OBP the last three years, and he has an OBP of nearly .380 against left-handed pitching. I would be very keen on seeing him in the 2-hole against lefties, at the very least. That extra OBP in front of Albert is worth the extra one or two GIDPs, IMO.
Luddy, and his .350+ OBP vs RHP, should probably be the guy when there’s a righty on the mound. Him or Colby, anyhow.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:28 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
luddy has a reverse split, doesn’t he?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
yup
fairly pronounced one too.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Flopez?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Last season aside
he’s not a “great” OBP guy. We can probably make a Frankenstein’s monster with a ~.340 OBP by shuffling the likes of Yadi, Colby and maybe Freese around the 2-hole this year, which isn’t much less than what Lopez has put up for his career. You also have to take into account that the .380 (or whatever it was) OBP from last year was put up in a serious bandbox – I can’t imagine moving to Busch will help him to replicate his career year.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
he played about 65% of the year in arizona
and hitters’ parks DO inflate OBP numbers.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 9:24 AM EST up reply actions
Is Arizona a hitter's park?
Maybe you’re right, but I wonder if Felipe’s ups and downs have to do with his happiness.
I think you might be right about the happiness thing
the guy is a bit of a headcase and I think his attitude is seriously questionable. Lot of talent, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 5:19 AM EST up reply actions
He's projectable for Molina's OBP without Molina's baserunning.
That’s a pretty good buy.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I hate that generator
It nearly always has the best hitter hitting first, because it significantly overvalues the significance of plate appearances, imo.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
i've always felt Albert would be much more productive batting 4th
but since Edmonds & Rolen had gotten hurt & old there wasn’t a better 3 hitter than him, which is why i have never been too upset with him staying there. if, and i still think it’s a BIG IF that Lego comes back, it’s a no brainer to me that Lego should hit 3rd & Albert 4th & Colby or Lud going back & forth from 5th & 2nd only having Cobly hit leadoff when Skippy takes a day off.
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
i'd rather
2. lud
3. holliday
4. pujols
i think we’re at our best with them next to each other, lineup protection debunked or not. the closer together they bat the more rbi ops albert has
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Jan 2, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
oh man
Lud, Holliday, then Pujos would kick ass
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
i'll admit
in my mlb ’09 franchise, i have holliday 3, albert 4, and luddy 5, but luddy is more like his ’08 incarnation there, so it makes more sense
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Again, maybe
I’m not ruling anything out, there’s just a lot of things that have to be considered. For example, is it a function of the pitchers he faced? Is it a function of guys on/not on base? There’s a lot of variables that could bias things in a fairly small sample.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
I have a slight problem with the "lineup protection has been debunked" thing
not because it’s not true, but because it’s ignoring (at least in the Cardinals’ case) a separate aspect (which probably comes somewhat under the “protection” umbrella, just from a different POV). That is, if you have an extraordinarily good hitter (say, Albert Pujols) he’s getting on base and hitting for extra bases a % of times he bats which far, far exceeds a “context neutral” (i.e. league average) environment, or even an environment in which you replace him with a very good, but not quite as awesome hitter (say, Ryan Howard).
So, every instance where the #2 hitter gets on base, or where the #4 hitter produces a hit (or even a walk) is increased in value, compared to the “context neutral” environment. Taken to its extreme – let’s say you have a #3 hitter who gets on base 100% of the time. Every single time he comes up to bat he hits a single or takes a walk. Now, let’s say you have a choice between hiring an awesome hitter who can’t field (I dunno, Manny Ramirez) or a player of similar value who’s all glove and very little bat (pulling this out of my ass, Mike Cameron) for an identical price – it’s obviously best to go with the offensively-inclined option, as every time the #4 hitter hits for extra bases, he drives in a run, so his xbhs are massively increased in value, whereas the defense skills of both players remains context neutral.
I guess you could make the same argument about having a great fielding infielder (Ryan) vs a guy who hits well but fields less well (I dunno, Renteria) in the infield on a team with an overwhelmingly groundball-orientated staff. So this is perhaps more “lineup/team construction”-related than “protection”-related but the conclusion is the same; when you have an all-world hitter, the offense of the players around him increases in value because of the large amount of time he’s on base. This, I think, is why it’s important for us to have a legit star hitter at #4 or #2 in the lineup (and why, in a non-Holliday world, I’d favour just getting the best available bat, someone like Cust or even a Branyan, to put round Pujols, rather than getting similarly valuable players who defend well). “Protection” in its true sense may have a minimal or nill effect on how teams pitch to you, but putting 2 or 3 excellent hitters together in the lineup is certainly a good idea.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:14 AM EST up reply actions
that's why the linear weights based lineup stuff that Morong did is useful.
It tells you exactly how valuable x point of OBP should be expected to be, in front of x points of slugging, etc.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
All great points
You’re clearly right in that the debunked part of protection is about improvement of hittable pitches (and therefore singular player improvement) not overall effect on lineup construction / lineup production.
On a slightly related, yet unrelated note, I’m interested in looking at reverse protection… having better hitters in front of Pujols.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 3, 2010 8:43 AM EST up reply actions
+1
This is really what I was trying to get at but not as eloquently. Albert needs to be viewed in a differnet context. He’s the best player in the game.
Just win
yeah after reading his
I got it better, and you both are probably right. Each team does have a somewhat unique Run Expectancy matrix etc.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 3, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
And this should also tel you that the effect of adding another good hitter on top of your current good hitter should be multiplicitive, not additive—the runs produced by a lineup should scale as the product of all of their WAR, not the sum.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
if i remember correctly
the test i was reading about used something like a .450 wOBA player (something like that. i know it was better than albert or any player in history) and said that if there were at least league average hitters behind him, it’s still more beneficial for the player to take a walk
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
in "the book", tango did it for .400, .465, and .530 wOBA
basically, matt holliday, albert pujols, and 2002 Barry Bonds. It was never a good idea to walk holliday, and only a good idea to walk the others in very special conditions (2 outs, RISP, or 1 out and 2nd and 3rd for bonds).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
that was it
but i had no idea bonds or anyone had ever broken .500 holy shit
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i think it was 2001
he had a .600+ OBP. Six f’ing hundred!!!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:15 AM EST up reply actions
Bonds was >.500 wOBA from 2001-2004
just unreal.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
"extraordinarily good hitter"
I think the word you’re searching for is ‘ridiculous.’
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Steve...
I’ve read somewhere, and now of course can’t find the link, that having two 4 win guys in the middle of a lineup does tend to create more runs than having say, one 4 win guy with a four 1 win guys, due to chaining (at least I think that’s what the analysis was stating as the cause).
FWIW, I really have to start bookmarking this stuff — it’s hard to google for.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
yeah the more I think about
and actually read his original question / Feloniuses response, I too believe they are correct (I missed hard core on my original response). Protection seems to have little to no effect on any singular performance (i.e. getting better pitches to hit), but in the context of lineup construction it’ll definitely have value. I think I stuck a quick comment somewhere up above about each team having it’s own slightly different RE matrix which would slightly alter the wOBA weights. I think that’s sorta a good way to look at it, but I’m not sure.
I know there was a fanpost at BtB (i think it was a fanpost) about your specific comment, and I think someone did some back of the envelope stuff in the comments.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 4, 2010 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Link
Here’s the fanshot to which I was referring
by stevesommer05 on Jan 4, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Wasn't exactly what I was thinking of (the link, that is)
It also doesn’t really look at the premise of my comment, which isn’t the difference between one 8 win player and two 4 win players, but more of the difference between having two 4+ win hitters hitting back-to-back in a lineup versus having one 4+ win hitter and then spreading the other 4 wins around throughout the lineup on a marginal win basis. I would expect, based on the analysis that I’ve read, that the two 4+ win hitters would be more productive place back to back, than the one 4+ win hitter with 4 marginal batting wins added to 4 other spots in the lineup.
In other words, I would expect that concentrated wins at specific spots on offense would be more valuable than the same wins disseminated throughout an entire lineup in a balanced fashion. Cyril Morong has a post on this here.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Thanks for the link
Yeah that was well before my entry into sabermetric related stuff. I’ll give it a read sometime.
by stevesommer05 on Jan 4, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
brewers pick up chris waters from the o's
the brewers made a lot of deals that i can’t even remember. probably because they’re so boring. watch them kick our A team’s butts.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
also, the real life version of the Big Z meme is hilarious
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/carlos-zambranos-availability.html
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh, Mets.
I’m not sure why I keep watching this trainwreck.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
this post could use some comedy stylings
Marlon Byrd close on three-year deal with Cubs.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
and
http://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/statuses/7241318404
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 31, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Might as well trade for Jeff Francouer while they're at it
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Dec 31, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
more small stuff from mlbtr
Jason Frasor interests the Cubs, who have talked to the Blue Jays about their relievers.
The Cubs were negotiating with representatives for Scott Podsednik and Rick Ankiel until they agreed to sign Marlon Byrd yesterday.
(oh, and contract? backloaded.)
Danys Baez – Phillies
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Watching him get the Cykiel three times a season would make it much easier to handle
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
does not outweigh Ankiel + brick wall
nightmare fuel, there.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
1st class winner!
Giants were smart to sign 1st class winner Mark DeRosa. Soon the Cards will be smart too
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, saw that this morning. too lazy to leave my bed to do anything but retweet it
I hope he knows something we don’t.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
you tweeting now?
is there a hashtag for Boog yet?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah, I'm @miss__k
two underscores. I’m following VEB. I assume you are too, but there was no obvious “Yadi2Second” corollary. I also figured most people’s twitter handles are different from the ones used on a content-specific sports blog.
Just searched for #boog: no results found. We should do something about that.
We probably won’t hear any Boog news worth tweeting about for a while, I suppose.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
nah, I'm not on twitter
but I like to watch it go. hashtags go pretty quick for scanning.
I hope there’s no news! it’s drivin’ me crazy, but any news coming out right now is rarely good.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Well, if I have any secondhand Boog news
I’ll be sure to tag him when I retweet it.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Cust dream
I want everybody to know that I dreamt Jack Cust hit a monster homer to the back row last night…of course after that he snuck out of the game because he was on some type of parole work release program and saw this as a good opportunity to make a break for it. For whatever thats worth. Just saying sometimes dreams can be premonitions! haha.
That dream did actually happen. But I’d rather have my daydream of Crede/Dye/Smoltz come true. Does anyone seriously see Franklin closing out a ws clinching win??? Freese really has me worried and I was ecstatic to hear 1 lonely rumor about the cards being in contact with Dye.
Can we get some guesses on the Holliday contract?
I say its 6/102M which is why its taking Borat so damn long to call up every team in the league to make sure they don’t want to talk to him. He maybe a good agent, but he seems like a shitty person. thats my 2c.
Jermaine Dye fan since KC. He's STILLLLLLLLLL GOT IT!!! now lets get him...and a real closer (named rafael soriano). Thats all, thats all I want.
I don't see Franklin being able to not suck
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2010 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
what makes you like dye?
or is it just a personal thing? Guy is really, really bad at baseball now.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 2, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
actually
just looking at his stats from last year, he was a bit unlucky on BABIP. He wouldn’t be a bad choice for a team that needs a cheap DH (although I think most AL teams are set?), as I think his price will really fall. There’s a decent chance he’d be worth $5m or so to DH somewhere – he’d be more valuable as a DH because he’s so bad in the field.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:33 AM EST up reply actions
HFS
®
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
not all Molinas are created equal.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
OT, but not worth a fanshot:The MLB Network has determined that Game 2 of the 2009 NLDS is an "All-Time Game"
and they are replaying it right now.
I’m watching it so I can remember the good parts. What a waste of a brilliant performance by Waino.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
OT
what ever happened to driveline mechanics. it was usually pretty good for a read every day or two, but it seems to have fallen off the map the last month or two. i ask because i think at least hazel and vep are front page posters there
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i thought i was posting this in the main thread
but i suppose this is as good a place as any
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I think that
VEP doesn’t post much over there since he started at THT, and devil fingers is posting at fangraphs now
by stevesommer05 on Jan 2, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I haven't posted there for at least 2 months
DF’s at FanGraphs and Kyle’l is busy with his bio-mechanics lab ventures. Hazel still posts there, but only once every couple of weeks.
If anyone here, who has useful content to contribute, wants to write for the site you should email Kyle at kyle.boddy@gmail.com.
so do you think we'll here about Holliday signing this week?
the suspense, is killing me
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 2, 2010 8:52 PM EST reply actions
i do
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i'll believe it when i'm watching the press conference
and if he does sign, they should fly in big mac & do both at the same time & finally get that over with
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
i'm hoping this week
i had a real feeling i’d log in today and see something, but nada yet. Still, I’m guessing it’s more likely than not he’ll be a cardinal now, for the first time in this whole process. I just hope it’s not too much money.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:34 AM EST up reply actions
5/85
I wonder what he will say when the Cardinals shrewdly sign him for like 5/80 “They got lucky” “Boras cracked” “Holliday is just fooled that St Louis is a great place”
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
what an arrogant prick
i couldn’t even finish all of that
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
i think he's pegged most of those guesses about right, personally
i still wonder who gives damon multiple years if not the yanks, but i guess they’ll probably step in and get him if they’re definitely out on holliday (if their payroll antsyness is true and they can’t even afford damon, he could end up being a real bargain for someone, 2 years, $12m, something like that).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 3, 2010 4:39 AM EST up reply actions
I think the braves will get a bit desperate.
And throw Damon a bone.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
if this goes on any longer
I vote that VEB makes up some entirely false Hot Stove rumors.
Boras does it. Why can’t we?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Alex Rodriguez asked the Yankees to void the rest of his contract
He then signed with the Cardinals for a 7-year league minimum deal
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
this just in
at 1:34am est and unnamed basement dweller who calls himself “gdm”, confirms exclusively to TMZ that the Cardinals agreed in principle to trade Kyle “Bubbles” Lohse & a case of Bud Select to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee & King Felix. when reached for comment Joe Strauss’s head immediately exploded
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
by gdm426 on Jan 3, 2010 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My sources say not only do we sign Lego & APu this week
but Ryan Franklin, Skip Schumaker, and Allen Craig are traded to the Giants for Matt Cain.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
how many times do i have to remind you people that Jack, Jim & Jose are his sources?
and the Cardinals would never trade Allen Craig because they don’t even know they have him
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
by gdm426 on Jan 3, 2010 2:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
awesome
I’m hoping for a reply-fail to this suggestion.
oh did I post that…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Smoltz, Sheets, Holliday
I’d definately be pleased with a Smoltz and/or Sheets signing. I am kind of neutral on Holliday— I don’t really think he will be worth the $$$, but if it means we can keep Pujols, I understand it.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!
oh man
if we sign sheets our starting rotation is best in the majors (well, with some luck)
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 3, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
and with New York being destroyed by an Atlantic tsunami...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:16 AM EST up reply actions
nah
carp = vazquez
sheets > sabathia
wain > burnett
penny = pettite
our trash = their trash
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Sheets > Sabathia?
You’ve got to be kidding right?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Yeah, I'm not sure I can buy that either.
Sabathia is pretty damn good and also durable.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I may have just jinxed C.C. Sabathia
Apologies to Yankees fans.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
No, no...
please don’t apologize.
Any idiot would know that.
by The Classical on Jan 4, 2010 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
if he's healthy, he's better
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Well you kinda have to take that into consideration don't you?
Sheets hasn’t had 4 straight seasons of good health. CC has hardly been hurt his whole career. It’s like comparing Rich Harden with Johan Santana. Harden is about as good, when healthy, but he’s never healthy, so that’s not a fair comparison.
There’s also no way that Sheets is a better pitcher than Sabathia, healthy or not. Sabathia has a better ERA+ over nearly 400 more innings than Sheets, which is about 2 more full seasons. If Sheets had two straight seasons of his career average ERA+, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
well
at least Carp was better last year, right?
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
True
but who would you wager your life on to be healthy this season? Sabathia or Carpenter?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
neither!
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
Every time I see CC he looks bigger
I wonder if his plant knee will go before his shoulder or elbow.
no he isn't
Sheets last couple of healthy years were in the 4 win range. Sabbathia’s touched 7, I believe, in the last couple of years.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I can swallow Waino = Vazquez
Vazquez is way more durable than Carp, however, and I expect that they’re similar quality pitchers (maybe Carp’s a shade better) when healthy, so I’d say Vaz is better than Carp.
Sabbathia is way better than Sheets (even a HEALTHY Sheets is slightly inferior IMO), and indeed anyone in our rotation. Burnett is as good as anyone who isn’t Waino or Carp in our rotation. Pettitte likewise.
Sabbathia > Waino
Vazquez > Carp
Pettitte > Sheets
Burnett > Penny
Hughes = Lohse
I guess you could argue a win or two here or there, but they’ve got 5 guys who were healthy all last year, and we’ve got two guys with major health questions (Carp & Sheets) and two more who’ve had significant injuries in the last 2 years (Penny & Lohse). Even if it’s close on quality, their durability is much better.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Vasquez doesn't have Carp's track record, ever
he’s been a pretty good pitcher for most of his career, but he set a career high in pretty much every statistical category last season. I’d have to say that, barring injury, Carp is far more likely to repeat last season than Vasquez is.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Vazquez has also pitched in hitters' parks in front of awful defences most of his career
And Vazquez has been (whilst up and down) a guy who’s averaged nearly 5 WAR AND OVER 200IP per season for the last 8 years. Carp’s averaged less than 3 WAR per year over that period, mainly because he’s averaged less than 120IP per year. Vazquez has a superior career FIP too (although Carp’s ahead on ERA and tRA).
I’d have to say that, barring injury, Carp is far more likely to repeat last season than Vasquez is.
That bit in bold is kind of relevant, though, isn’t it? Vazquez is an almost uniquely durable pitcher, whereas carpenter is held together with bandaids and hope.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
i wasn't really including injury
otherwise we only have waino
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
ah cmon
Lohse will be better than Hughes
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
hughes is pretty good
3.85 FIP, 2.5 K/BB, 4.20 ERA. That’s his career numbers, and he’s probably going to get better, at only 23.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
ok
best in NL
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
you can make an argument for Atlanta
but yeah, I think on balance, especially with no Vazquez, we’d be a shade ahead of them.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 5, 2010 5:30 AM EST up reply actions
Kinda depends on Lowe bouncing back
on Jurrjens repeating last year’s smoke and mirrors routine, Hudson being healthy, and their two rookies from last year avoiding the sophomore slump. I think they have as many questions as we do actually.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I think Carp's a lot better than Vazquez, production wise
The innings pitched totals make them about equal.
Bay officially healthy enough for the Mets
it’s done.
[pause to contemplate that subject line]
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
fresh from Rosenthal's magic 8-ball
Matt Holliday — All signs point to him returning to the Cardinals, probably this week. I’m guessing that Holliday will sign a seven-year contract for about $120 million, a deal which would represent victory – and defeat – for both sides.
He doesn't seem to give any rationale for his prediction that Sheets will go to the Cubs and very little
that Tejado will go to Cardinals, other his doubt Freese would be the solution at third
because he doesn't have a f'ing clue what he's talking about
he always talks out his ass, it’s what he does
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Tejada ain't coming if we're paying holliday 120m
he’s pulling this stuff out of his ass.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 4, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
i just got pretty pissed with mlbtr for having a Halladay headline
that said, Jack Z is badass. some cool Cardinals facts too.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Is that deal ever going to happen?
I think it has been rumored as imminent since the first day of the offseason, no?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
it's been a rumor for well over a year
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Beltre to Red Sox, 1st/$8m, 2nd/$5m option
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Would you send them Tyler Greene
for Lowell and let them pick up nearly all of his contract for next year?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I'm not sure I would
I wouldn’t want to give up on Greene just yet. We have literally NO-ONE who can play SS (if we accept the fact that Lugo is past the days when he could play there) other than Boog, so I think Greene is a pretty useful piece for us right now. I think they’d want someone from a lower level with a higher ceiling, too – I doubt Greene will be better than Green or Scutaro, and they’re reasonably deep in the MIF now.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 5, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
It was a similar deal to what Texas offered
at a position where they have few players that have any MLB impact. I, too, like Tyler Greene and am not willing to give up on him, but Lowell for nearly free would be pretty nice next year, assuming his thumb is healthy.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
That's kinda moot though, isn't it
because texas offered that deal and then retracted it when it became clear to them that Lowell perhaps wasn’t as healthy as they’d assumed.
I agree that Lowell for nearly free would be nice next year, especially as we’re in “win now” mode to some extent, but I just don’t think he’s going to be any better than freese and so he’s there as a bench bat and a guy who can take some PA at 3B if he’s reasonably healthy. I dunno if I want to give up our only legitimate backup SS for that.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 5:09 AM EST up reply actions
I really wish we had the foresight to sign a bench guy like Vizquel
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I don't
he’s a horrendous hitter now and, despite still being a decent glove, he’s probably only about as good as Tyler Greene. I’d rather have the younger guy with the higher ceiling. I don’t see what Vizquel offers us at all.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 5:10 AM EST up reply actions
1 million for a decent defender
Isn’t that bad of an idea, Especially if he is willing to play 2b. That would be a pretty good defensive sub at the end of a game, even if his age is getting up there. Certainly better than having Lugo at the end of a game :).
Plus, need moar old guyz.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I'm with Felonius
Tyler Greene costs half that and can play all the positions that Vizquel does and is probably better defensively at this point in his career at all of those positions. He also has the ability to hit some homers off the bench, and I’d rather have that than a Punch N Judy type like Vizquel who’s best years are behind him offensively.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Especially if he is willing to play 2b. That would be a pretty good defensive sub at the end of a game
Tyler Greene. Probably similar glove, probably better bat.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 5:20 AM EST up reply actions
To be honest
I was looking at his splits a few weeks ago and saw his OPS against Lefties was over 1k. I thought I was looking at data from the past 2 seasons, but it was only 32 AB’s against lefties last year. My mistake.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
definitely
if that $5m is a team option. That’s an excellent deal.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 5, 2010 5:31 AM EST up reply actions
It's a player option I believe
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
WHAT THE ASS?!
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
guess I gotta say it here
Beltre wanted a coastal team.
Mo still no luck with those photoshops of the Mississippi.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
round-up
Brian Burres, Neal Cotts, and Tyler Yates – Pirates, MiL contracts
Derek Lowe – Braves, willing to eat $9m (out of $45m) but no takers
Scott Eyre – Phillies, MiL contract offer
John Parrish – Royals, signed
Mark Mulder – Brewers, meet w/ GM, signing imminent
Miguel Olivo – Rockies, 1y w/ option
Matt Holliday – Cardinals, “close to signing” out of “multiple contract scenarios”; Olney and Heyman reporting, plus Bernie says Mo is quiet today
Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo – Mets, Red Sox discussing deal perhaps
Juan Uribe – Giants, passed physical, deal done
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox, 1/8m, clarification on 2nd year: “either a $5MM player option or a $1MM buyout”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
what do the braves want for lowe?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
quote from the Mothership (Bowman)
Once Wren decided to provide Tim Hudson with a three-year contract extension, he committed himself to having to trade either Vazquez or Derek Lowe.
The Braves made every attempt to deal Lowe and were surprised to learn there were no suitors, even when they made it known that they’d eat $9 million of the $45 million he’s owed over the next three years.
The Red Sox seemed like a possible fit. But instead of bringing Lowe back to Boston for $36 million over three years, they instead provided John Lackey with a five-year, $82.5 million contract.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
wonder which will be a worse value over the next 3 years
Lohse, for $32.6M, or Lowe for $36M?
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i bet everything i have it's Bubbles
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
brewcrew loves our leftovers
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 4, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Narvy almost made the rotation 2 years ago. He had a couple good games at the end of last year and there are similar mutterings. The Soup gave me food poisoning.
Should have checked the expiration date
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
I can't imagine you were very keen on the old Soup-Loop double-team last year either
amazing how quick Looper fell off a cliff after leaving the watchful eye of Dave Duncan. I actually wouldn’t mind him back for the league minimum, mind you.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 6, 2010 5:12 AM EST up reply actions
I forgot about Loop
I’m not sure why, but I didn’t mind Loop so much. He motors along doing really well. Sometimes you reach the end of the game and sometimes he just seemed to lose it. He was the guy on the staff who got the big run support.
Twitting
http://twitter.com/dgoold/status/7367901188
http://twitter.com/miklasz/status/7380246157
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Shelley Duncan to Indians
Tweet from Drew Silva
For all you Duncan family enthusiasts out there, Shelley signed today with the Indians. 30 dingers at Triple-A last year.
he would have been an interesting fit.
i think another duncan on the team would have led to some bad karma. which is unfortunate.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
CHONE bizarrely projects him to be the best non-Holliday, non-Bay, non-Cust bat on the FA market this year
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 5, 2010 5:32 AM EST up reply actions
if only we'd thought of this first....
1. acquire Shelley
2. trade him for Grady
3. ???
4. CGirl is happy
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Possibe misunderstanding.
I would be happier if he were here than anywhere else but still sad he is no longer with the Indians and they traded him. If he signs elsewhere, as long as it’s not the Yankees, I will be okay. Sad. But okay. Traded right now I would be angry and very sad.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
cheer up, ClemsonGirl
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Well they haven't have they?
I am currently happy. Except for my cold and lack of sleep and that class starts tomorrow.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Hopefully not with the Cubs either
If you are okay with him signing with the Cubs…well, go back to the tribe site lady!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I would actually be terrified if he signed with the Cubs.
I feel like he would run into that brick wall and die. It goes like this Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox are the teams I would be unhappy with in that order. Yankees I might throw something at whatever multimedia device that gave me this awful news. Cubs I would yell. Red Sox I would cry.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
How could he go to the Red Sox when he wrote that little statement on that kids ball.
It would actually be kinda funny if he did.
stove done blew up
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/1/5/1235626/holliday-signs
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
the Glaus epic
http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/it-s-official-glaus-267589.html
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
no way. our first step would be a high-end starter discounted for fragility like smoltz or sheets.
jon garland is the next best bet for the rotation. washburn is just not that interesting to me. his superficial stats were bumped up by having the best defense in the majors behind him in the second-most pitcher-friendly park in the majors for much of the year.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
SHEETS
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 6, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to agree with tom
although Washburn’s ability for his ERA to exceed his FIP in terms of production is marked, very weird, and a HUGE outlier. I wonder if he’s not doing “something” to achieve that – I’d love to see VEP do an article on Washburn (similar to his ones on John Lannan, the conclusions of which (Lannan’s been lucky so far) I think I agree with) to look into it in more detail.
My hypothesis is that Washburn is particularly good with runners on base. His career LOB% is nearly 74%, over nearly 2000 innings and 9 years as a full-time starter (over which he’s been very durable). The league average, historically, is in the 71% region. Even elite guys like Maddux, Clemens and Pedro don’t generally exceed the 74, 75% boundary very easily, and they’re obviously much better pitchers than Washburn. Maybe he’s just been lucky for 12 years solidly, and has always played in decent pitchers’ parks (LAA, Sea, Det), but it’s maybe possible that he’s a rare breed of pitcher who excels when he really needs to.
That said, on the “solid innings eaters” front I think Garland is better, and is probably available for a similar price. I also prefer Jose Contreras and (if we really want a lefty) perhaps Doug Davis. Also, like Tom, I prefer the slightly higher risk, higher reward guys like Smoltz and Sheets (although I still think Sheets probably exceeds our budget). If it was a choice between Contreras + Calero, and Smoltz straight up, however, it’d be very close, for me.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 7, 2010 5:32 AM EST up reply actions
Noah Lowry?
He’s still floating out there along with Ching. Lowry had at one time off and on been rumored to be ont he birds radar. Well now he’s coming off injury. He could be worth a cheap look and probably cheaper than Wang, although I still think Wang has more upside
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
he's coming off an injury that's had him out of baseball or completely inneffective for three years
very few players come back from those sort of injuries. Kerry Wood is about the only one I can think of in recent years, and he had to change roles (starter > bullpen) AND he was much better than Lowry to begin with.
I’d be fine signing Lowry to a minor league deal, but I imagine if he’s willing to take that, the Giants or some other Cali team will just sign him to it. I’m not keen on giving him a guaranteed major league deal or even the sort of $1m low-risk deal they gave Clement a couple of years ago (although that wouldn’t be too bad).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 8, 2010 6:42 AM EST up reply actions
i'd love to sign branyan to a similar deal
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jan 7, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
i should revise this to say roughly similar
one year, 2 million, 500 k in incentives
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Jan 7, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
He hit .251/.347/.520 with 31HR last year. Second half slump or not, I’d personally be very surprised if Branyan went anywhere near that cheap unless his back is confirmed to be screwed.
He's not going back to Seattle
They just traded for Kotchman and Griffey is their DH. I guess he could play 3B there or something.
I can’t figure out why the Giants aren’t beating down his door. He’s the type of bat that they need in their lineup, but then I can’t figure out why they weren’t beating down Nick Johnson’s door either.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
atlanta would be a good fit, too.
you can’t bet that both glaus and chippah are going to stay healthy.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
And Chipper could be moved back to the outfield, anyway
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
does his arm still work in the OF?
I don’t know if that’s very realistic, given his injury history. I assume they put him wherever he’s least likely to get hurt.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 5:58 AM EST up reply actions
which is why signing glaus to play 1st made not so much sense.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
I suppose
I thought that was a great signing, personally. Hinske too. They added two potential low-risk power hitters for like $3.5m.
I really like Wren’s off-season, personally. I thought the vazquez trade was pretty good, too, although I think I’m in the minority on that one.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 12, 2010 5:35 AM EST up reply actions
Fuck, that is ridiculous
Cust is one of the top 20-30 or so hitters of RH pitching in baseball. Some of the bargains this off-season have been crazy. Shame we haven’t been in on any of them.
I like Holliday, and I’m not too upset about the deal, but it really would’ve been nice to have a Cust/Craig platoon in left, a Branyan or Floppy/Freese platoon at 3B, Sheets and Harden in the rotation, Calero and Springer in the bullpen, and a RH backup CF option. We could’ve had all this on the budget we’ve had this off-season, and basically be committed to hardly any of that cash next year (as nearly all those guys will sign 1-year deals) and still be able to get involved in the FA market next year (Werth?) and have plenty of cash left for Albert.
Like I say, I like Lego & Centiquid (and we still might have ~$5m to spend), but I think the above lineup is at least as good as what we’ll put out this year, and we’re not committed to ANYTHING long-term, AND we get an extra first-round pick from Holliday to boost the farm system.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 8, 2010 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
I wanted Pedro last year
I still would like to sign him up as a number 5, sign Smoltz for the bullpen and keep Garcia and Boggs as injry replacements.
What’s everyone’s view on Pedro after last year? Can he give someone 150 innings?
And one thing on fangraphs. If you type in Pedro Martinez you get four choices. Shouldn’t it just go to THE Pedro martinez and give you a button for “all other players who went by Pedro Martinez”?
Just win
what the heck is Mo talking about?
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says his team will decide in the near future “if we have a bullet to use what would we use it on,” according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers
I saw that
And I’m interested in how big of a “bullet” he is talking. Probably a 3-4 million dollar contract somewhere. I think Felipe Lopez or Valverde are probably some possible “bullets”.
I may just get my Valverde wish after all
Lopez wouldn’t be a total travesty, but it doesn’t seem like we need him (although with him we’d have one hell of an offensive team)
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
i doubt they'll give up the pick for him
i want him, but even i’m not sure if they should burn that pic on him
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Yea I don't think they would
I forgot about him being type A. We need to rebuild our farm system too badly. He’s not worth giving up a pick for. So Lopez sounds good to me.
I'm ignoring the draft pick
it’s not a smart idea, but I just want a closer that is somewhat similar to Lee Smith, if not really that similar. I suppose Motte could be that guy, but we’ll see. I’m just sort of bored with the Izzy and Franklin style of closer
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 2:24 AM EST up reply actions
it's a HUGE win now move if we get Valverde
not that that’s a terrible thing, but with only a couple of supplemental picks next year, our chances of rebuilding much on the farm are kinda slim. Given how much cash Holliday & Pujols will be eating in the next 7 years, I really think we need to hoard all the picks we can and let Luhnow do his stuff.
I really hope we don’t sign ANY type-A free agents for the next 2 or 3 years, unless they’re total bargains.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 8, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
i took it to mean
a trade chip. hope you’re right
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i'm all for it except
is anyone else annoyed to find out that they did indeed freeze EVERYTHING during the Holliday negotiations? was there really no margin for error when (generally) bidding against themselves?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Pujols negotiations to begin soon
I don’t how many have seen this or said this but
Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. indicated Thursday that he expects contract extension negotiations with Albert Pujols to get underway soon.Saw this on the side bar on VEB and its also from here. Something definitely worth keeping an eye (or two) on.
excellent news.
Get it done, Mo!
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 8, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
fantastic news
and to think i was doubting albert’s desire to hang around
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Goold's article in the p-d
today suggests that the Cards might have some interest in Joe Crede to play 3B. On the one hand, if he could be had for $2 – 3 million, he would be a bargain…to most teams. He’s a terrific defensive player, one of the best 3B out there, and despite the fact that he’s injured quite frequently, will be a terrific bargain to most teams.
But not to us. David Freese projects to be about a 2 win player at 3B, a platform Crede hasn’t hit since 2006. He’s a poor offensive player and is hurt too often to be a 2 win player and, even if he is able to achieve 2 wins, why should we pay $3 M when he’s no upgrade over Freese. Mo has been the subject of considerable back-and-forth about his performance considering the trades last summer and the signing of Holliday. This would be a horrendous deal of epic proportions if Crede were to receive any major league dollars from the team. There’s no excuse for it. St. Louisans may be pissed at Freese over his DUIs but he’s the best 3B option we have, considering the team is absolutely unwilling to consider Allen Craig at the hot corner. The fan base should revolt if the team signs Crede to a major league contract.
I was with you until the last sentence.
I’m not going to revolt for any reason as long as Albert is a Cardinal.
Now with extra feisty!
agreed
chcuk makes a great point, although I believe that if Allen Craig makes this team, he will get at least a little playing time at the hot corner. I see no way in hell that Tony can keep himself from filling out that lineup card knowing that Craig owns a third baseman’s gloves. If Tony can find reason to put Aaron Miles at ss, he will definitely find reason to at least put Craig at 3rd a few times.
I am sold on the fact that he will not be considered as a full time third base option, so I suppose my entire first paragraph is basically moot.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
maybe
tony’s whackiness will finally cause the FO to realize that that “andy clark kid people won’t shut up about” used to play 3b pretty adequately before being shifted to the OF
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
If Craig actually works at 3B and isn't a smartass
Tony will give him a chance to start. “That crazy kid just does what I ask him to” is also one of the maxims that TLR follows to a fault.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I was just thinking earlier that Crede could be a good fit
And now I see this. I hope we get him. Maybe Boras has a BOGO sale and will get Crede half off.
hey Mo
just say no to signing a 3B… go after pitching
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
SMOLTZY!!!!
BEN MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH SHEETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
If Crede isn't making the salary of a starter (1-2M?),
I’d like to have him as Freese insurace. Crede is only 31 and does not appear to be in a defensive decline. He’s probably an average player with below average health.
Last year, before the season started, 3B was the last place we needed another body. 300 Joe Thurston PA’s later, I think insurance isn’t a terrible idea.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
for some reason I thought he was like 35
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
the problem is
that Crede isn’t versatile. He’s a 3B…period. We’d be much better off w/ someone like Lopez or Jerry Hairston, Jr. or someone who could play multiple positions.
We may already have enough versatility.
Craig- LF, RF, 3B
Schumaker- 2B, LF, CF, RF
Lugo- 2B, SS, 3B, and probably some corner OF with LaRussa
Ryan- 2B, 3B, SS
Mather- LF, CF, 3B, 2B, 1B
Molina/LaRue- One will play 1st and one will catch when we need it.
This all depends on who makes the team.
Larussa can never have enough versatility
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
MO said Skippy's now exclusively a second baseman
i hope TLR got that memo
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
if we don't get a backup CF
he’s the backup. And Craig should not be considered a 3B. I’d like to see him given a shot but that’s never going to happen, except perhaps in an absolute emergency.
based on the eye test
i’d rather have luddy as the backup cf than skip
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
chucks right, they do need a back up CF
Luddy’s alright in CF, but they can’t count on him to be the primary backup. Skippy is out of the question, or at least MO said he is, so they need either DJ to take a huge step or find some guy off the scrap heap to be the back up.
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
norris hopper
MiLFA, good glove (UZR reckons he’s about average in centre, better in the corners) and he’s got a very good OBP vs lefties in his 175 MLB PAs (.406, though that’s with a presumably unsustainable .390 BABIP). Still, I expect he can put up a ~.340 OBP against lefties. No power at all, but I figure for the league minimum he’d be a decent pickup, and he’s still got options, so he could sit in AAA and be called up if Colby needs more than a day off a week.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 10, 2010 6:58 AM EST up reply actions
so i figured Boras would bait-and-switch us with Damon
so he’ll do it with Crede instead?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
So if the Cardinals sign Crede, where do they put him in the lineup?
I’d be tempted to put him in the two spot to help him out if he shows he’s still going to struggle. A guy who has hit 20-30 HRs every season he’s played at least 130 games (except the first time, when he hit 19) could be valuable there or in the 6th spot. Him and Rasmus need to be in the two spot most of the time I’d think. I think the low average would be the reason he goes down to 6th in the lineup.
Crede
has a career OBP of .304 and a career wOBA of .320 and you want him to hit in the 2 spot? Maybe for Memphis but he’s not as good as Freese. He doesn’t even warrant a roster spot
I said if he struggles.
It would give him a jump start, and if he succeeds there, he could possible stay there. I really want Rasmus in a spot that allows him to steal bases.
Crede is the prototypical #8 hitter.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
You want Rasmus in the two spot stealing bases ahead of albert?
Honestly, I think the best hitter in front of Albert is a three-true outcomes type that has a high OBP and absolutely won’t hit into a DP
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
yea, but
howe many bases do you expect him to steal?
i’d guess he’s be more valuable in the 2 spot
so they walk apu, isn’t that why we gave matty 120 M?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
if Rasmus is on second, and they decide to intentionally walk Apu to put Holliday up with men on 1st and 2nd
that is a Very Good Thing.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:03 AM EST up reply actions
I think the best hitter in front of Albert
is the guy with the best on-base percentage on the team. I really don’t give two short sh*ts about anything else, and neither should TLR.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:01 AM EST up reply actions
(hence why Rasmus probably isn't "that guy")
I’d go with Yadi/Freese/Boog vs lefties (whoever has the highest OBP of those guys, probably Yadi) and probably Ludwick (.351 OBP) vs righties. This is assuming he wants Holliday batting 4th, which is not unreasonable.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:02 AM EST up reply actions
agree on the obp in front of apu
just worry about 2 double play threats back to back in front of holliday
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
Caveat...
I think it should be the guy with the best on-base percentage, who also doesn’t provide much value other than getting on base (i.e. low slugging percentage, bad baserunning, etc.).
I really do think that Molina is the best guy to have in that spot. He has a .350ish OBP, even better against lefties, and really doesn’t provide any other offensive value.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Freese, plz
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 8, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, looks like we are stuck with each other for a while
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
this will teach me to read ALL the threads before putting up my main post.
good discussion, everybody.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
abbreviated round-up
I’m picking around, there was probably bigger news or something.
Brett Myers – Astros, $5MM with an option, pending physical
Endy Chavez willing to do a MiL deal
Franklin Gutierrez – Mariners, 4y/20.5 plus club option
The A’s were also rather busy with this ’n that.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
my thought -- the myers signing means that a) washburn really is collossally stupid to reject the twins $5m offer,
since myers is twice the pitcher he is, and b) that means we’re going to have to go $6, $7M and up with incentives on smoltz, bedard, and sheets. i would guess all three are better options than myers, even with health considered. probably all three will look for a penny-like deal.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
endy would make a modicum of sense on a MiL deal...
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 9, 2010 5:19 AM EST up reply actions
How about Jimmy Ballgame as our 5th outfielder
I still think Edmonds might have some gas in the tank. Would love to see him get to 2000 hits. Holliday wouldn’t take uniform number 15 when he reisgned. Does he know something?
Edmonds at $1 million plus incentives. I would love this.
Even better if Big Mac comes back and pinch hits.
Can we get Gibby to close?
Just win
Rationally, I think it's a bad idea--but I would love to see Jimmy play for us again
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
by andi_k on Jan 8, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
we do need a lefty with some pop off the bench,,,,
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
he doesn't want to play baseball
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
mickey mouse
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I wonder if Sheets as a closer would make any sense
or if he would even do it
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 9, 2010 2:15 PM EST reply actions
if he's healthy enough to pitch
using him as a closer seems to make little sense. It’s a real waste of a guy who (when healthy) is a true, top-of-the-rotation ace. I’d rather roll the dice with Franklin/Motte as closer and have Sheets bustin’ asses and taking names every fifth day.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 10, 2010 7:01 AM EST up reply actions
It woudl actually make more sense to put Sheets in the rotation
and use Penny as the closer—that ASG he started a few years ago should be good enough evidence about what Penny can be like in short innings situations.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I agree
I quite like that idea, actually. Obviously this assumes that Lohse is at least average this year, and we have problems from the pen.
If Eduardo Sanchez comes up mid-season and deals, that could help too :-).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:04 AM EST up reply actions
round up
so effin unproductive today for me. bah.
Russ Ortiz and Michael Restovich (OF) – Dodgers, MiL contracts + ST invites
Zach Jackson, PTBNL – Blue Jays AAA in beautiful Las Vegas, Indians
John Smoltz – Mets, being considered. seriously.
Bryan LaHair – Cubs, MiL + ST invite
Luis Hernandez – Royals, DFA
Jarrod Washburn – Twins, 1y/$5m (maybe) reeeejected
Jerry Hairston Jr. – Yankees, “serious talks”
Vladimir Guerrero – Rangers, 1y/$5MM + performance bonuses
Khalil Greene – Rangers, 1y/$750k
And here’s what we’re paying Holliday. Bustterrrrrrrr.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
she just had a baby!
i doubt she’ll be riding anything for a while
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
the doctors said one month.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
but offense doesn't--
oh.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 10, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
*tweet
Aroldis Chapman has agreed to a $30MM with an unknown National League team
http://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/7598662943
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Mystery Team
took their resources committed to Holliday and landed a big fish!
by Mister Eff on Jan 10, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
main thread discussion
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/1/10/1243617/salaries-and-war-and-stuff#28571499
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
holy cow -- Chapman to Reds for $30 million
Makes the lohse overhang feel better to me. Can we get the Brew Crew to trade for Soriano and have each team pick up half the tab? what else can go right for Cards?
Just win
Woah, latest news on Chapman
John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer jumps into the mix, tweeting that the two parties are talking, but the deal is yet to be signed and could be for as many as ten years.
10 years?
No way
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 10, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
i have no words
fake blockquote
2:12pm: John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer jumps into the mix, tweeting that the two parties are talking, but the deal is yet to be signed and could be for as many as ten years.
1:52pm: Passan confirms the deal, via Twitter.
1:34pm: Jeff Blair from the Toronto Globe and Mail tweets that he’s hearing that Chapman signing with the Reds at five years and $30MM is a done deal.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Here's a trade idea
Ludwick for a starting pitcher and sign Johny Damon to play right field for two years at $13 million. Ludwick is gone soon anyhow, Damon can spell Colby in center and Allen Craig becomes fourth OF.
Damon fills the all important #2-hole and we get a bit more basepath speed into the lineup. He’s AVERAGED over 100 runs scored the last ten years.
What could we get for Luddy? I would think we might get a nice number three SP — to slot after Waino and Carp.
Just win
Damon has such a noodly noodle arm that that description was insulting to noodles
Can’t play him in RF
You know what they call a quarter pounder with cheese in France?
by jd is legend on Jan 10, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
are you sure?
or does it just appear non-important because no MLB team would put a guy with an arm as bad as Damon’s in RF?
John Walsh has a study at THT where he shows that the measured difference between best and worst RF arms in the league could be as much as ~27 runs in a full season, and that’s just among players whose arms were judged good enough to play RF in the first place. Damon, being a -5.6 run LF in 2008 according to Walsh’s methodology (he hasn’t published 2009 data yet), would potentially be a historically bad RF. Probably bad enough to justify moving H to RF and playing Damon in LF.
As a second data point, using more recent data, according to fangraphs ARM, the difference between Ludwick in RF and Damon (in LF) was almost a full win last year (8.6 runs). Even if he only loses an additional half win moving to right, which seems conservative, that would be a lot to give up.
When we consider the lost Luddy upside (potential $5-6M .900ish OPS player, likely $5-6M .800ish OPS player) and the cost of the pitcher and Damon’s salaries, and the offensive performance risk that Damon entails, I just don’t see this as an interesting scenario…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
by SleepyCA on Jan 11, 2010 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
also
Damon’s earning more than Ludwick in this scenario!
I really don’t see the point in trading a fairly cheap, fairly good OFer when his value is low (after a poor season) in order to employ a fairly expensive, less good OFer when his value is high (after a career year). I am not a fan of this idea.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:07 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe we can fleece the Braves for a pitcher?
Maybe Jojo Reyes or another high profile pitcher from the Braves.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
I'd guess we could probably get Lowe and cash
for any of Craig or Mather or DJ. I think Wren would injure himself hitting the “accept” button if we offered Luddy…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Jojo Reyes ain't that good
I doubt he’d make our rotation as it is now. I wouldn’t trade Ludwick for him, and we can’t afford the one guy they might want to trade (Lowe).
If there’s a chance in hell they’d trade Kris Medlen for Ludwick, I would do that deal in a heartbeat, but realistically, that ain’t happening.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:08 AM EST up reply actions
Medlen was the name I could not recollect
That I wanted from the Braves, but I was just under the impression that he was atop their minor league pitcher list a few years ago. Perhaps he had something to offer.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
yes
he’s very good at pitching, if you count that as something to offer :-). Decent control, decent K-rates, and generates groundballs. I think he’s an above-average pitcher in the majors right now, with upside for quite a bit more.
If I haven’t made it abundantly clear, I really like Medlen….
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
That being the case
I doubt he’s available for a year of Ryan Ludwick. I might see if Ludwick + something would get it done, though. I think I’d give up any of our prospects in that trade. Probably spend the money left over from on someone who could platoon with Craig in RF (no, I’ve no idea if Craig’s arm plays in right, either! I suppose Joey Bombs’ probably does, but I think he’s unlikely to be productive in 2010), although if Church signs in Pittsburgh that’s not leaving too many options. Maybe Gabe Gross, who is a very, very good defender too.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think he will be available
The Braves, despite dealing Vazquez, still have depth up the wazoo, and their only option at this point in FA is Damon, Ludwick might look appealing to them considering their options. A good bounceback candidate or….Matt Diaz?
But yeah, I do agree with Medlen, had he been in another system where he didn’t have a Tommy Hanson in front of him, he would have much more hype.
I think a shot at Xavier Nady wouldn’t be a bad idea, considering the money would would save from Ludwick. Maybe a platoon with some rookies wouldn’t be a bad idea either.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
It's not bad,
but what exactly does Luddy net us in trade? The best pitcher we could get would probably be a salary dump type, like Aaron Harang or someone similar to that. In that case, we’re spending a lot more for production that is in all probability pretty similar to what we’d get with Ludwick and one of the available FA pitchers that are currently still on the market.
I don’t think that Ludwick really has much trade value at all.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
I agree with that.
I think we tend to over-value what people will pay for a guy who still ostensibly looks like a one-year flash-in-the-pan.
I don’t think Ludwick has much more value than Nady, and he’ll possibly cost MORE this year than Nady will…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 12, 2010 5:37 AM EST up reply actions
Lefty bench bat...
So I think we are down to just…
Chad Tracy
Ryan Church
Gabe Gross
Felipe Lopez (switch)
Cory Sullivan
My preferance would be Tracy or Lopez because of their ability to play multiple positions.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 10, 2010 6:00 PM EST reply actions
sticking to realistic options, anyway
Sure there are a bunch of over the hill guys out there like Garret Anderson, Brian Giles, Darren Erstad, Matt Stairs, etc.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 10, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
if Freese puts up these kind of numbers
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/david-freese-deep-league-value
I will be very happy: .269/.353/.484….19 home runs and 82 RBI
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 11, 2010 12:07 AM EST reply actions
82 RBI sounds ridiculously bullish
I can’t see him hitting in an RBI-heavy spot. I could also see him being benched fairly frequently, even if he does hit. Still, it makes me happy that someone’s so high on him. That projection seems ridiculously optimistic, though – if he does that, plays every day, and he’s (as advertised) an above-average glove at 3B, he’s probably a 4-win player.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 11, 2010 6:10 AM EST up reply actions
and probably a candidate for rookie of the year
It’ll be interesting to see if this dwi wakes him up and lights a fire under his ass. it would be nice if he even hits 15 home runs, to say the least. interesting to have back to back rookie position players if Freese wins the job in ST
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 11, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
this n' that
Aubrey Huff – Giants, 1y/3m
Ryan Church – Pirates, ‘extensive conversations’ close to a deal *
Doug Davis – Nationals, waiting for them to notice him, sniff.
buzz around Seattle of locking down King Felix
*supposedly Ankiel’s expectations of being an everyday starter have the Buccos backing off
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
JOSE CONTRERAS
thoughts?
Haven’t heard a peep about him interesting anyone. I wonder if he’s going to be the Kyle Lohse-type average guy who slips through the cracks this year. Upped his K rate last year, and although he’s old and has failed to top 150 IP the last couple of years, he’s still actually very good (decent K rate, decent BB rate, decent HR rate) and has consistently put up above-average FIPs the last few years. He had awful BABIP and HR/FB luck last year, which gave him a sorry ERA, and got bumped from the WhiteSox’s rotation late in the year. I still think he’s a decent 4th starter, and well worth $3-4m of anyone’s money, which would leave us a bit of cash to grab some more relief pitching (Calero) and whatever other pieces we might want (cheap CF/LHB bench options?). I wonder what his presumptive market value is?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
he's okay. i wouldn't move fast on him, but if he's still out there in a month, his price would be pretty low.
seems like he’s ready for a serious rebound if he goes from the al in a bad park with not very good D behind him to the NL in a pitcher’s park with pretty solid d.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
I think he'd be an interesting option
to move to the bullpen. He might be able to recover a couple of mph on his fastball in a closing or set-up role, and he has a good breaking ball for an out pitch as it is, so if we could get him for around $2-$3M and give him a chance to start. If that doesn’t work we could always move him to the bullpen and I think he’d be pretty effective there.
Can Colby round out our new MV3?
Save the pennies
Let’s see what the season brings. I’m happy to wait until June to see what teams are looking to dump salary and to see who’s not performing, where we need help.
Jo-el
I keep reading people saying he is gonna slip to $14mil/2 years. Seems like he will do better, thats less than he made this year. Maybe people are finally afraid of paying for duncan projects.
by I miss Jack Buck on Jan 11, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions
The Brewers beg to differ.
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Dodgers are currently unlikely front-runners
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 12, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Trib...
says Cubs taking a look at Sheets:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-12-cubs-sheets-jan12,0,7869164.story
Logical replacement for Harden, I suppose.
Six years was the hope of the herd;
Unanimous but for one who demurred;
A prescient young man;
By the name of stlfan;
He knew Scotty would have the last word
this is after their Greg Maddux hire
as assistant to Hendry
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Jan 12, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
If they wanted a logical replacement for Harden
they should have offered him arbitration. Seems odd to me to go after Sheets in light of that.
by brackenthebox on Jan 12, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
that's what I was thinking
unless Sheets isn’t quite as injured as Harden
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 12, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
when the Nats don't want him....
In that same mailbag, Ladson also noted that Felipe Lopez was not a candidate for the Nats’ search for middle infield help given that Lopez “left on bad terms” in 2008 when Washington released him in mid-season.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
quick roundup
Grudzie to Indians, MiL
Damon and Yankees, fading
Bass, Carlin, Myrow to Pirates MiL
Nats thinking 2 years for ODog
SHEETS too pricey for Cubs
“The Astros officially signed Brett Myers to a one-year, $5.1MM deal today. His contract pays $3.1MM in 2010 and has an $8MM mutual option/$2MM buyout for ’11.”
Hinske to Braves, 1/1 + .5 incentives; Brandon Jones DFA’d
Ramon Castro back to White Sox, 1/1 + a couple of years’ options
Church to Pirates, 1/1.5 + 1.32 PA-based incentives
Royals close with Carlixte (int’l signing, close to $1 mil)
Bengie, nooo, don’t cave. They’re the Mets
Marlins pressured to be less cheap-ass!
Nats looking at Adam Kennedy
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
eff. Aubrey Huff to Giants, 1y/3 pending physical
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Well, the left-handed hitting options are dwindling
only Gabe Gross left now who I’d be even vaguely interested in…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
I was thinking more as a backup bat, assuming we spend most of our $7m on pitching
I’d imagine Branyan and Floppy are more everyday options.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 13, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think the left handed bat needs to be an outfielder...
I think our backup outfield spots should be going to Mather and Craig if they can win the jobs.
I think Chad Tracy and John Smoltz would absolutely be the finishing touches to the team. They provide depth where depth is currently questionable.
Tracy still has pop from the left side, he can play 3rd if Freese can’t. He’d be cheap. He’d be a nice pinch hitter to have late in a game.
Smoltz can start the season as the 5th starter and if he’s unable to handle the role, then Garcia and/or Boggs should be given a chance to win the job. He’d slide right in as a set up man or be able to relieve Franklin of closing duties.
I don’t see how these 2 players cost more than 6-7 Million.
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 13, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Tracy's quite a good call, actually
I’d forgotten about him as an option. I think I could go for that. Even if he totally stinks (as he has the last 2 years) we wouldn’t be paying him much. What’s his current injury status? I know he’s had problems lately.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Jan 13, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that Arizona still had him
but if he’s available, why not :)
In football, the object is for the quarterback, otherwise known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his recievers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use the shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy's defensive line.
In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! "I hope I'll be safe at home!"
-George Carlin (RIP)
Holliday's head is still huge
oh well. next thread!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
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