Innings Eaters
by DanUpBaby on Dec 28, 2009 6:00 AM EST
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PrintThis is the part of the off-season where I feel a little like a member of a stranded traveling party—if not quite that traveling party, even though they did originate from my hometown—waiting out the lack of newsworthy material. A rare bit of that manna comes from Future Redbirds, who doled out the last of their top twenty prospects just in time for Christmas to wipe out the internet for two or three blissfully disconnected days. As ever I won't spoil the whole list, but Lance Lynn managed fourth place, one spot behind his Sickels slot.
Don't get me wrong—I agree with his general placement. It's a thin system, and maintaining seven strikeouts per nine innings as a 22 year-old pushed fairly rapidly into the high minors is about all it takes to earn my prospect trust. But it occurs to me that we don't have a unified vocabulary for prospect discussion.
So today's mission, should you choose to talk about it, is this: Tell me (us) what the following prospect-speak means to you.
Innings Eater. I've obviously voted on this one with my choice of AP photo. An innings eater provides an ERA around, but possibly over, the league average; he doesn't strike out a lot of batters; he pitches around, but possibly under, 200 innings.
He is, in a perfect world, Jeff Suppan. When he has a career year it's completely unreported by his FIP, which remains comfortably above his ERA. Jason Marquis is another fair example. (Does anybody else remember being really excited about Jason Marquis following the 2004 season? He threw hard, he got groundballs, his strikeout rate and his walk rate were heading in the right directions, he could hit—and then he turned into Jeff Suppan overnight. Not exactly overnight; he had an impressive-enough April, 2005, hot on the heels of his at-least-someone-didn't-suck performance in the World Series, that he made me write the words "Leo Mazzone's Rosebud." Thanks for nothing, guy.)
Third Starter. Second only to the Innings Eater in both his frequency on prospect lists and his disconnection from reality, it seems like both of these hazy prospect figures exist much more frequently on lists than they do in real life. You know how many players pitched at least 190 innings with an ERA+ of at least 100 last year? Neither do I. But Baseball Reference tells me it's exactly 41. With 30 teams left to fight for those guys between Zack Greinke (ERA+ 205) and Scott Baker (ERA+ 100) on that list it seems like the average team's third starter is practically, if not technically—accounting for injuries, ineffectiveness, et cetera—not much like a third starter at all.
But as scout's nomenclature it seems to have been bestowed upon Jaime Garcia-class prospects. They're close to the majors; they're likely to get there and be effective in some role for a few years; but they seem to be cursed to maintain an ERA+ of 110—125 some year when their command inexplicably improves, 90 some year when they're hiding elbow problems—into perpetuity. It's easier to say "he looks like a future third starter" than "this guy doesn't excite me at all, and he's never going to win a Cy Young, but his numbers are good enough that Baseball America is making me write this capsule."
Mid-90s fastball. Low-90s fastball.
Future set-up man. These words strike fear into my heart like no others, and I'm interested to see what other people think when they read them. Most often applied to guys like the Cardinals' own Scott Gorgen, they seem to be code for a particularly inglorious combination of innings-eater stuff with future-closer command problems. If the pitcher is a starter, like Gorgen or P.J. Walters, it means he doesn't have the fastball to get major league hitters out on a regular basis, but he might be able to get away with something if he only has to do it once or twice in a game. If the pitcher is a reliever, it means he doesn't strike out a batter an inning now, playing for the high-A Rockford Clawhammers, and he probably won't be doing it in the majors, either. Most of these guys have low-90s fastballs.
Low-90s fastball. I've seen this guy throw three times and he didn't break 88 once, but he seems nice enough.
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i really don't want to clock in at work
you think they’ll notice if i just go back home?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
You've already logged on to your computer, I take it?
That could be problematic, if the tech guys and payroll are involved in any sort of cross-pollination.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
yeah...
i just went ahead and started working anyway
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
This message with self-destruct.....when Jeff Suppan's FIP is below 3.80 for a full season.
- Innings eater: This guy doesn’t throw hard enough to hurt himself, so he’ll take the mound every fifth day with varying results….because he also doesn’t throw hard enough to make hitters miss his pitches very often either.
- Third Starter: Well, this guy has put up good numbers, so I have to include him on my list. He has little potential outside of polishing off a plate of french fries, and he throws hard enough to hurt himself, so he’s not an innings eater. Aha! “Third Starter” — I don’t know what it means, but it seems about right.
- Mid-90’s fastball = Future Tommy John Surgery.
- Future Set Up Man: Walks more than 5 per 9, will hurt himself if he pitches more than 2 innings at a time, has weird facial hair or a nervous tic.
- Low-90’s fastball = Has this guy tried the knuckleball yet?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
by fourstick on Dec 28, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Greg Maddux ...
…didn’t throw hard either, but he managed to have himself an pretty ok career. I sometimes find that “throwing hard” and strike outs in general, are a bit over-rated: nice and useful, but not the be-all, end-all of a pitcher’s success. There is no reason why a pitcher with a low-90’s fastball can;t have a successful MLB career, provided he can spot it cowsistantly.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Not exactly
Maddux came up being able to throw 93, but he never threw that hard in the bigs. From pretty early on in his career he backed off to 90ish for improved control. That then turned into high 80s as he got older.
Greg Maddux
is the one guy of his type who’s had a Hall of Fame career. Saying that soft tossing righties can be awesome because “look at Mad Dog!!!” is like saying Harding was a great president because he established the Veteran’s Bureau.
Yes, that was a Warren G. Harding reference.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
boom
harding’d
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
This is so untrue it's ridiculous
Of the 300 game winners, there are three others who didn’t throw very hard but were very successful:
- Don Sutton,
- Phil Niekro
- Gaylord Perry
None of those guys ever threw 94-95.
Robin Roberts, Jim Palmer, Jim Bunning, Catfish Hunter, and Orel Hershisher all won 200+ games by being crafty control pitchers with above average stuff. None of those guys ever threw 93-94.
Stating that being a power pitcher is somehow a recipe for success is total bullshit. There are just as many guys who flame out throwing 94-95 as there are throwing 90-91.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Correction
There are just as many guys a similar percentage of pitchers who flame out throwing 94-95 as there are throwing 90-91.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
This might be true.
But I don’t think we’re talking about hard-throwing flame-out percentage versus soft-throwing flame-out percentage. Instead, I see it as hard-throwing HoF percentage versus soft-throwing HoF percentage.
At least, that’s how I read the Cow’s comment.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Ok
Warren Spahn never threw 95 mph, and he has the most wins post-dead ball. Maddux has the second most. Tom Glavine won 300 games. There are nearly as many soft-tossers in the HOF as there are hard throwers.
Also, using HOF status to decide these things is idiotic to begin with. Bert Blyleven would enhance your argument, but he can’t because he isn’t in the HOF for a bunch of stupid reasons.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Ok, let me be clearer.
By HoF, I didn’t mean that the player is in it; simply meant that the player has had that kind of career.
That said, your using wins as the measure of great pitchers is at least as “idiotic” as my using HoF credentials.
What I’m simply saying, and please let me know if I’m not being clear, is that soft-tossing pitchers succeed in spite of their lack of velocity. Not because of it.
Except maybe Wakefield: his success is built, in part, on his lack of speed.
Again, take a soft throwing pitcher with control and command and poise and a bulldog mentality and all that crap. Now, give that same pitcher a 96 mph fastball. Which version will be better?
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
I still don't understand what your argument is
My point is that the velocity on your fastball has little to do with success rate as a pitcher once it’s determined that you can throw above 85 mph.
I think we’re arguing the same thing, only you seem to think that pitchers who throw harder are more successful. I don’t believe that to be true because of ample evidence to the contrary.
FWIW, while soft tossing pitchers succeed in spite of their lack of velocity, as you say, they also might be less successful if they were able to throw harder because the lack of being able to throw 96 mph is what made them develop all the other things that made them a great pitcher. You can’t just add in a 96 mph heater and expect everything else to stay exactly the same. It doesn’t work that way.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Ok.
I think you’re operating under the assumption that gaining velocity means you have to give up something in another area of your game: control, longevity, health, what have you.
I, on the other hand, am not. Purely for the fun of it, I’m asking what would happen if you could just add velocity without subtracting anything. And the reason I’m asking it that way is because the Cow said “throwing hard and strikeouts are over-rated”.
My response is “Really? So you’d prefer a pitcher who threw soft and didn’t strike guys out over a hard -throwing k-machine simply because Greg Maddux had a HoF career?”
And I think we can all agree, given that all other variables between those to pitchers are equal, that would just be silly.
And the Cow’s example is a little flawed anyway, given that Maddux did strike a lot of guys out and, as Eff mentioned, could bring the heat when needed (at least early in his career).
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
It's not a very rigorous study
(if a study at all) but a fastball below 89 is a good sign you aren’t in the majors.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I don't really disagree with that
But an 18 year old kid throwing 85 could develop into a 20 year old kid throwing 90-91 due to proper fitness and conditioning. That’s kinda why I put the cut off there. If we’re talking about major league pitchers, I think 89 or 90 mph is probably a good cutoff. But once you throw that hard, there are other traits that tend to matter more, and really successful pitchers will have those traits whether they throw 91 mph or 98 mph.
My point is that just because you throw 97 doesn’t mean you are going to be successful. There are a lot of other things that go into it. Can you get away with more when you throw 99 mph? Yes, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be any good. I’d rather have 88 mph throwing Trever Hoffman closing games for me than 99 mph throwing Fernando Rodney. Hoffman is simply more effective than Rodney is, despite throwing 11 mph slower, on average.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Projectability = 95% Bunk
This goes to the question of projectability, which I think is 95% bunk.
In the vast majority of cases, prospects don’t pick up velocity after the draft. In far more cases, they “lose” velocity as they back off of their peak speed in order to improve their command.
High peak speeds get people’s attention, but what matters much more is a pitcher’s cruising speed.
So Stephen Strasburg
is a huge glaring exception to this? Because I don’t think that’s true.
I think there are a ton of high school kids who don’t throw 90, but then develop an extra few mph on their “cruising speed” by developing better mechanics and getting stronger.
Every pitcher I’ve ever seen or played with that got drafted (20-25 guys) picked up some velocity after either going to college or entering the minor leagues. I don’t think you can draft based on being able to project added velocity, but I certainly think that this is possible and has happened.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Thus the 95% number
It does happen, but it’s relatively rare.
Maybe it’s 90%, but the fact is that it’s not 50%.
Maybe it’s 90%, but the fact is that it’s not 50%.
Chris, I’m not even sure I disagree with you in this case but, as usual, you continue to label things as facts with little care. I think you throw that word out far too often when there’s no evidence being presented. At this point, it’s opinion, not fact.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
In my experience, then
I’m working with a number of minor league pitchers, trying to get them a few more MPH so that they can improve their chances of getting to the next level. It’s incredibly hard to find even one extra MPH. From my work with them, and seeing the people around them, I have become very skeptical of the idea of projectability.
How old are they?
If you’re talking about pitchers past the age of 20 or 21, they’ve probably physically matured and have also been in some type of conditioning and strength program for at least a couple of years. I would guess that it is going to be difficult for them to add velocity at this point.
My conclusion was based off of 17 and 18 year old kids who may not have physically matured yet or ever participated in a strength and conditioning program that was focused on enhancing pitching. I would also guess that many of them have significant mechanical issues that will need to be ironed out before they will reach their true potential. In this case, I’m pretty sure they haven’t reached their ceiling yet, but saying that 95% of pitchers drafted won’t add velocity after being drafted seems incredibly high.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Exactly
It’s insane to say high school pitchers don’t pick up velocity later on. I see it literally every year at Mizzou. Crow came in at 86-89 and left at 90-95 touching 97, Gibson (in relief) came in at 86-91 and left at 88-94; Tepesch came in at 88-94 and is 90-95 and has touched 98. I could go on forever, almost everyone picks up 1 mph and a lot pick up 2+ mph on where they “sit” and even more on their top end between their freshman and junior years.
After college? Yeah, not a lot of guys find any more velocity, but even then you can project someone like Gibson finding more velocity because he still has room on his frame to fill out and has a quick arm.
Not afraid to nitpick
My views...
…may be more true of early round guys.
I know for instance that the Cardinals have spent a lot of time with David Kopp trying to get him into the mid 90s, and he can get there. However, he’s most effective at 90-91.
Also, there isn’t a big (e.g. statistically significant) difference between 88-94 and 90-95, which proves my point. A statistically significant difference would be 5% or 3-4 MPH.
I am also wary of such wide ranges in pitchers. Most pros vary just 1 or 2 MPH when they aren’t tired.
"Most pros vary just 1 or 2 MPH when they aren't tired."
Really? This seems contrary to the radar gun at just about every game I watch. And I’m not talking two-seamer to four-seamer. I’m talking about similar pitches. Now, maybe the radar guns are far inferior to those used by those technologically advanced scouts, but I doubt they would be so bad that they would cause a greater variance in pitch speed.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
You're probably mixing in...
…cutters and 2-seamers with 4-seamers. With those you are going to see 5% velocity drops. If you compare 4-seamers to 4-seamers you are going to see relatively little variation.
I remember being at Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS and watching Clemens. I forget where he was, but I think it was at 97 or so on his FB and he was remarkably consistent. Around the 6th or 7th he started to lose just 1 or 2 MPH and I knew the Cardinals had to get to him then because he was tiring.
And they did.
Yes.
Because, not being a scout, I can’t tell the difference between a cutter, a two-seamer, and a four-seamer.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
That was unnecessary.
I apologize.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
The greats are VERY consistent
Their mechanics are very repeatable and, as a result, their velocity variations are typically very small.
If their velocity is varying, at least in the early innings it’s generally because they meant to (e.g. they threw the ball a bit off-center or used finger pressure to get it to move more).
He's actually right
Pitchers who are tired after 100 pitches thrown, or even injured, don’t suffer much velocity loss.
However that may be selection bias as well. When you have a guy who is tired, he is going to try to overthrow a bit to compensate.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Pitchers who are tired after 100 pitches thrown, or even injured, don’t suffer much velocity loss.
But doesn’t velocity loss correlate very well with arm injuries?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
No, it may actually be the opposite
Some theorize, and I think it’s plausible, that pitchers are injured — or the risk of injury increases — when their mechanics change due to fatigue but they still maintain their velocity. The idea is that during that time they are throwing with different, less efficient mechanics and are increasing the strain on their bodies.
Yes, I think about .3 per Kalk
However, fatigue has little correlation with velocity loss.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-fatigue-affects-a-pitchers-fastball/
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
What are you talking about?
Also, there isn’t a big (e.g. statistically significant) difference between 88-94 and 90-95, which proves my point. A statistically significant difference would be 5% or 3-4 MPH.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Tepesch
I did a write up on Tepesch coming out of HS in 2007 (I have video), and then saw him last year versus SLU, and he’s basically the same pitcher. Yes, he is more consistent, probably due to more repeatable mechanics, but he’s the same basic pitcher.
Um
3-4 mph is a huge, HUGE difference.
If that didn’t matter, then why are we having a debate about they guys who throw 90 mph and the guys who throw 95 mph? That’s just out of your “doesn’t make a difference” range.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I seriously don't know what you guys are talking about here
What “difference” are you referring to?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
He's not asking you to
He’s asking you what you mean by that statement – and I’m confused as well.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
He gave me two very broad ranges...
…that don’t correlate with what I’ve seen and that are so broad as to be useless.
As I said, I’ve been following Tepesch since the 2007 draft. He’s the same basic pitcher now as then.
CC Sabathia?
He throws 4-seamers at 91 and then will throw the next 4-seamer at 97. It’s intentional variation.
Not afraid to nitpick
I'd really doubt if the 91s are 4-seamers
Because the variation is so big.
However, some pitchers will cruise at just 90 or 95 percent maximum, which gives then the option of taking it to “11” every once in a while.
That's what tons of guys do
And I’ve seen 91 mph 4-seam in super slow motion with my own eyes from Sabathia. Tons of the best pitchers vary their fastball a ton. Zack Greinke is the prototype of a guy who adds and subtracts all the time dialing down to 90 and up to 97 when he wants to.
Not afraid to nitpick
I can't find GIFs for you
And I know PITCHf/x is very scary for everyone but:
On September 11th, Greinke threw a FB at 90.6 MPH with -3.3 horizontal/10.9 vertical “rise” (yes, I understand that the ball does not actual rise…this is relative to a theoretical non-spinning, non-knuckling, air-does-not-affect-the-baseball, not difficult to understand baseline). He also threw a 96.4 mph FB with -3.5 horizontal/9.4 vertical “rise”.
The 90 mph pitch had less “sink” AND “run” than the 96 mph pitch. I think it’s safe to say the 96 mph pitch was a 4-seamer as that was his fastest of the night, and since the 90 mph pitch moved essentially identically, it too was a 4-seamer (if anything, the 90 mph pitch was even more 4-seamery)
Not afraid to nitpick
What is his average 4SFB velocity?
I’d assume it’s somewhere in the middle. That or he’s got another pitch that also comes in around 90.
Back in the day, guys used to have multiple versions of their FB, and this might be a resurrection of this idea.
Tug McGraw threw multiple fastballs and had a nickname for each.
If you look at that game
You can see that his core 4-seamer averages 95 and varies between 94 and 96. He also may throw a cutter that averages around 92 or 93.
I don’t know what the 90 was, but it doesn’t look like a 4-seamer. It looks more like a failed CH, SL, or CT.
P.S. His 4SFB was down to 94 in the 4th and 93 in the 5th.
That pitch was a 4 seamer
Same vertical and horizontal spin deflection as the 95 MPH ones, and similar spin angle and RPM’s.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
Correlate with what?
TPG, I’m not disagreeing with you (I think)
I just have no idea what you are trying to say. Can you please just repeat your whole position again?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
From The Top
I think the idea of projectability — the idea that pitchers will pick significant cruising velocity after being drafted — is largely bunk.
In my experience — and this is probably more true of early round pitchers than late round pitchers and HS pitchers — pitchers tend to reach the big leagues with roughly the same cruising velocity as they had when they were drafted.
In other words, but with a few exceptions, it’s generally unrealistic to expect a pitcher to throw harder in his major league debut than he threw in his last game before entering the minor league system.
In the first 3 years...
…on average they pick up less than 1MPH (which is arguably significant). Over their career, they pick up less than 1.5 MPH.
When I hear scouts project guys, they generally give them much larger numbers than that, often in the 3 to 5 MPH range.
At a minimum, the stats say that most projectability numbers are grossly inflated.
Possibly
Although we don’t have minor league or college velocity data.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
What I'm reacting to...
If you’re wondering why I care about this, the thing is that I can’t tell you how many times I’ve see reports that say something to the effect of…
Tall and lanky at 6’6". Fastball is 91-92, but I could see him getting up to 95 once he gets some meat on his bones.
How can you call something
“statistically significant” and a “SWAG” at the same time? I don’t think I’ve ever seen any math to back your theories up unless it’s presented by someone else. At this point, I’m not sure you even understand the terms you use when it comes to the “math”.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Math
A 5% difference is a decent rule of thumb for statistical significance. Of course, I realized the computations were based on SWAGs (or at least ranges), so GIGO.
I don't think this means what you want it to mean.
A 5% difference is a decent rule of thumb for statistical significance.
Something is statistically significant if it’s measureable/discernable beyond the noise produced by a system. You can’t throw out a percentage like 5% and claim it’s significant.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yeah, I thought it was based on SD.
Two or more SDs from the mean is statistically significant. I’ve never heard an absolute percentage quoted.
Percentages would seem to me to be dependent on the shape of the bell curve, and thus variable given the content of the curve.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
No it's p-value
Lower than a .05 P-value, which expresses the odds that a relationship in a regression could happen by chance, means it’s significant.
Of course it depends on the context.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
Then this is clearly more than my Introductory Statistics and Probability class in college was meant to handle.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Funny thing
I’ve yet to use my statistics courses (undergrad or graduate) in for any engineering at work. I use them for baseball on a semi-regular basis.
[To be clear, I’m not nearly as up on statistical methodology as VEP. I know enough to 1) interpret results and 2) sniff out bullshit on the web. I need to brush up on my math but haven’t taken the time yet.]
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
yet to use my statistics courses (undergrad or graduate) in for any engineering
This made me chuckle. People have asked me if I’m an engineer before, when talking about stats in public, and I often wish I had a clever rejoinder to separate engineers from scientists. What do engineers draw on the most routinely in real life? Calculus? Geometry?
For me, I mostly use
a handful of classes from my specialization. Outside of that, adding and multiplying seem to be the most important skills (not kidding).
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Close
Your P-Value can be set at whatever value you want, depending on what level you want to be testing for with regards to relationships, differences, etc. The 0.05 level is commonly used for research, but only because you want a pretty high burden of proof for something like that. But, you can go with a higher level if the situation warrants, such as when you are FORCED to make a decision either way, and need to know for just go / don’t go decisions.
What Chris said up above about the number of mph that equate to a “statistically significant” difference is probably a little bit of operator error (sorry, Chris).
Regardless of what number of MPH would constitute a “statistically” significant increase/decrease or difference between two players, the critical thing is actually “baseball” significance. A drop from 94 to 92 may not be “statistically” significant in terms of confidently stating there’s a change (at the .05 level, as VEP is using), but it could be very significant in terms of baseball effects.
I’ve
Right, that's why I said
“Of course it depends on context”
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
I get that
The core issue is that your trying to do an analysis on numbers with an unknown provenance and a large range.
GIGO
LET’S GO
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Abbreviations
SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess (aka approximation or rule of thumb). GIGO = Garbage In Garbage Out.
Early Maturers
Most guys who are throw hard enough to attract the attention of scouts in HS are probably early maturers.
As a result, they are done growing.
It could be that Strasburg was in part a late maturer who wasn’t done growing in HS.
However, that is still relatively rare.
Relatively rare?
It happens all the time! I’d guess that 75% of power pitcher college 1st rounders picked up 3-4+ MPH from their HS days.
Just this year from the BA writeups, Strasburg obviously, Storen went from 87-91 to 92-94 touching 96, Crow went from 86-89 to 90-95 touching 97, White went from 90-92 to 91-96, Jenkins went from not even having a writeup to 90-93 touching 96, Arnett went from undrafted to 92-94 touching 96, Brothers went from undrafted to 92-94 touching 96, Miller 86-91 to 91-94, Paxton 86-87 to 92-94 touching 97.
Not afraid to nitpick
I'm not saying it doesn't happen
But how many prospects in the Cardinals system, who signed, picked up significant velocity?
They haven't signed a whole lot of HS pitchers to start
And the ones they have signed didn’t have scouting reports to begin with nor can I get them now. You’re right, they haven’t signed one of the Strasburg/Crow “exploders” obviously.
I can tell you at Mizzou, literally every year probably half the freshman pitchers come back with 1-3 extra mph for their sophomore year. 84-86 touching 88 will come back 86-88 touching 90. It happens every year.
Not afraid to nitpick
I agree
But most of those mid-80s guys aren’t getting a look, or much of a look, out of HS. My rule of thumb probably applies more to higher-round guys.
I agree with that
The power guys anyway are already hitting 96 97 98…..but that also means there isn’t a necessity to do the specific training to try to throw harder anyway so that doesn’t necessarily mean they are done maturing physically. Plus there simply isn’t much room to improve to begin with given it seems the absolute maximum is 101ish.
Even still Jeremy Jeffress came out of high school touching 97-98 and he had been reaching back for 100-101 in the minors between pot suspensions (that’s a guy who needs to get on the 40 man roster). But yeah that’s an exception. If you’re throwing 91-95 touching 97 coming out of HS, they aren’t going to improve much at all.
Not afraid to nitpick
Yes
I think the thing about the velocity gain is that you have to filter by some categorical variables – age, physical maturity, etc. It may be that only 10% of pitchers pick up velocity after entering the pros, but it could be that 100% of the guys within a certain class of age/size/handedness/etc do.
Using the Cards organization is a bad practice, because they (or any organization) might have a drafting philosophy that only sees them acquire guys in that 90% category of players who aren’t going to pick up velocity.
Yes
But, I will point out that this contradicts your statement above, about not believing in projectability.
The scout’s eyes may be captured by teh guy that’s already throwing 90, and that guy may actually be done filling out (and thus no more room for velocity increase). But if Strasburg picked up velocity because he actually WASN’T done maturing, then that leads to the question “who else also isn’t done maturing?” And that’s where projectability comes in.
There's probably some nuance to this
However, in most cases discussions about projectability remain highly questionable.
Ok, but see, here's the thing.
You’re the one picking Hoffman and Rodney. Why pick those two pitchers?
It’s no surprise that someone would say “I want this Hall of Famer-to-be pitching for me instead of this guy who can barely hold down a set-up job.”
Just like the Cow was the one picking Maddux. If you only pick the greats, you’re forgetting a whole bunch of guys who have failed because they couldn’t throw hard enough to get batters out.
I’ll use this cliche and I’ll hate myself for it: you can teach control but you can’t teach velocity.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Then why doesn't it happen more often?
you can teach control but you can’t teach velocity.
I can teach a hitter the perfect swing, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be as successful as a guy who has a terrible swing and more talent? Is that what you’re saying?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I don't like your analogy.
The cliche was meant to illustrate that having velocity gives pitchers a better chance of success over not having velocity.
If you can’t teach velocity, then a pitcher can’t obtain it if he doesn’t have it. This means that his peak is only as high as his refinement of the “crafty soft-tossing” skills that sportswriters are so fond of.
But control is teachable. If you have velocity, you have a greater chance of success than those without because the skill you lack, control, can be learned. Whereas the skill the other guys lack, velocity, cannot.
So, I’ll say it again. Velocity gives pitchers a greater chance of success. All things being equal, we would expect a greater percentage of ‘pitchers with velocity’ to excel than we would the percentage of ‘pitchers without velocity’.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Utopian argument
All things being equal, we would expect a greater percentage of ‘pitchers with velocity’ to excel than we would the percentage of ‘pitchers without velocity’.
I’m not going to have a utopian “if all else was perfectly identical” argument with you. You’ve simply failed to process what the rest of us are saying.
I’m trying to form this argument with you on the basis of reality, and you keep giving me facts based in a perfect vacuum where you can change one variable without affecting the rest — that simply isn’t realistic.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Dude.
Can the sanctimonious crap, alright?
I told you why I was doing the one-variable experiment. I’ve illustrated my point. While I was unclear at first, I’ve made myself understood to everyone else.
You’re the only one who’s still bothering to post his disagreement.
I’ve always previously observed these fourstick vs. whoever arguments from the sidelines. Never thought I’d be the counterweight in one of them. Have to say it’s been regrettable.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, fine
Your experiment, which has no basis in reality, proves you correct. Happy?
Why is it that people always have to bend the will of other people or get all bent out of shape? I’m not being sanctimonius, just saying that your view of this is Utopian in the sense that it is based on a theory that can’t be proven and that may not turn out the way you think it might. Just because it seems like it would be that way doesn’t mean that is exactly the way it will turn out.
I’ve never said that your hypothesis isn’t wrong, just that your hypothesis isn’t based in any realistic expectation. You simply can’t change one variable without effecting all the rest of them to a certain extent.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
But the point of my argument
was not to prove that you can change one variable without changing others. You’re arguing with the packaging and not the contents.
My point was to show why velocity is valued as it is and how it’s hard to over-rate … exactly because it gives pitchers a higher chance of success.
If you really want to say that can’t be true simply because the example is not “real”, then I don’t know what other argument I could make.
There are more pitchers with long MLB careers who throw in the mid-90s than there are pitchers who throw 88. I don’t know what else to say.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
This
There are more pitchers with long MLB careers who throw in the mid-90s than there are pitchers who throw 88. I don’t know what else to say.
just isn’t true, as I’ve pointed out numerous times. So I’m done with this portion of the argument.
My point was to show why velocity is valued as it is and how it’s hard to over-rate … exactly because it gives pitchers a higher chance of success.
We understand, all of us, that velocity is a valuable thing. What I’m saying is that it isn’t the ONLY thing, and that pitchers who crank it up to 97 and 98 without any other skills or pitches aren’t going to be any more successful than pitchers who throw 90 or 91 without any other pitches.
Furthermore, you stated that you can “teach” control but not velocity. I would state that you can teach someone how to pitch even if they don’t have velocity and that a person that has talent for pitching will be successful no matter what their velocity is, as long as it is above 88 or 89 mph.
Lastly, you keep stating that high velocity pitchers have more success. Well, there are plenty of kids who have been able to throw 95+ that aren’t named Clemens and Feller and Koufax, and they’ve never been able to make it. I would guess that a similar percentage of 95+ throwers fail as 90 throwers do, it’s just that when a 95+ thrower puts it all together they become a legend, whereas a 90+ thrower like Maddux has to be even better because he’s not striking guys out left and right and blowing up the radar gun.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Long MLB careers
I would love to see the information you’re using that tells you that there are as many or more 88 mph pitchers with long MLB careers than there are mid-90s pitchers. I don’t see how you can say it just isn’t true so dismissively.
And your last paragraph here restates my argument perfectly.
it’s just that when a 95+ thrower puts it all together they become a legend
So you’re saying high velocity guys have a better chance of becoming legendary? Sounds just like what I was saying.
90+ thrower like Maddux has to be even better because he’s not striking guys out left and right and blowing up the radar gun.
And here you’re saying that the guys with less velocity need to be even better in other areas of their game to reach the same legendary status? Well then it would follow that less pitchers reach that plateau, right? Given how much better they have to be? That sounds like what I was saying as well: the guys with less velocity have a harder time being great pitchers.
I don’t see how you can type that paragraph earnestly and still be arguing against my point.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Forget it.
It’s clear that you don’t understand what I’m saying.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
pitchers who crank it up to 97 and 98 without any other skills or pitches aren’t going to be any more successful than pitchers who throw 90 or 91 without any other pitches.
wrong. jason motte is a major league pitcher. show me a guy who only has a 91 mph fb getting as many innings with the relative success of jason motte
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Mariano Rivera
and he’s better.
Done.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Question
If Jesus Christ came to earth, walked up to you, and said, “Hey, Fourstick! What a beautiful day! Just look at that lovely azure sky! Isn’t it great to be alive?”
Would you then argue with him the sky was really more of a cyan and not azure, as he so foolishly stated?
Adoration is the state furthest from understanding.
by the red baron on Dec 28, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
The answer...
is written in dozens and dozens of comment sections.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
and.....
mind your own business.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Welcome to the Public...
where you make an ass out of yourself in front of strangers.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Here we go again
I’m not nit-picking here. He asked me to name someone who throws 90-91 and has been as successful as Jason Motte, who hasn’t been all that successful at the major league level.
I did.
Where is the harm? It simply IS NOT TRUE that guys who throw 99 are always more successful than guys that don’t. Why is this so hard for other people to admit?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
always
i remember using that word
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
You told me I was wrong
Which means that you feel you are correct.
pitchers who crank it up to 97 and 98 without any other skills or pitches aren’t going to be any more successful than pitchers who throw 90 or 91 without any other pitches.
There’s the quote. You used Jason Motte, who hasn’t been very successful at the big league level yet, and threw his slider quite a bit last year.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Mariano Rivera has things going for him that Motte doesn't
His fastball has amazing movement. His command is amazing.
What everyone is arguing is that all thinks being equal, higher velocity = higher success.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
all i'm saying
(and everyone else) is that, ceteris paribus, a 98 mph fb is going to be harder to hit than a 91 mph fb
not that difficult to understand
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Not necessarily
Moving 91, thrown off of a good slider or change-up, is MUCH harder to hit than flat 98 thrown by a guy without a deceptive secondary pitch.
If a guy, like Motte, is just throwing a flat 98 MPH fastball and has no deceptive secondary pitch, all you have to do is sit FB and just time it out.
Which is exactly what good hitters do against him.
ceteris paribus
ceteris. fucking. paribus.
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think at this point
people are arguing just be be arguing.
C’mon now. All things being equal doesn’t really require advanced reading comprehension skills, does it?
That’s what the fucking holidays will do to people.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i even tried latin!
and they still won’t accept it!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
really,
i’m just glad people are talking about something after the last few days
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
fucking holidays?
hmm. this religion sounds more promising than others.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 28, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I really don't know why it hasn't caught on
Sure, it has flaws. There is a massive mess to clean up, but you have that with these other holidays, with nowhere near the fun.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
that's such a shitty argument
i’m saying that 98 mph fastballs have an inherent advantage over 91 mph fastballs, all things being equal. then you say, “nuh-uh because it’s not possible to give greg maddux a 98 mph fastball and all other things be equal!”
well, obviously. that’s not the damn point. i really am genuinely baffled at how this is such a difficult concept to grasp. i also fail to see why it isn’t beneficial to look at things in an abstract manner. that’s not science fiction. it’s actually just science
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
You're ignoring trade-offs...
…which makes this a fairly uninteresting avenue of discussion for me. There is a trade-off between velocity and control. I wish there wasn’t, but there is.
you're ignoring
that i’m not proposing that the exact same pitcher increase his velocity 7mph.
i’m saying that higer velocity has an inherent advantage over lower velocity based on the fact that higher velocity is harder to catch up to. that is all. maybe it’s uninteresting. what it is not is incorrect or difficult to understand
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Unless you're Pedro
And you can throw 97 pinpoint. Based on some of the argument structure being used here, that exception means that there is no tradeoff between velocity and control.
Not afraid to nitpick
Mariano Rivera NEVER throws it down the middle
Seriously, you must be joking.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see where this was a stipulation.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Sorry, I thought one of the qualifications was "down the middle"
I misread, my mistake.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
he has more than one pitch
and his primary pitch is a cutter
not a 91 mph straight as an arrow 4 seamer
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
And Motte has a slider
what, exactly, is your point?
They both throw one pitch nearly all the time.
One has been very successful, the other has a little over one season under his belt and an FIP of 4.81 in 2009. Not what I’d call “successful”, but I guess that’s subjective too.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
and
you’re crediting mariano’s success to the fact that his cutter is slow?
my point is if motte only had one pitch (which he pretty much does) and that pitch were 91 mph and he threw it the same, he would have worse results. becuase it’s harder to catch up to 98 mph
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
isn't rivera's cutter like the single best "secondary" pitch in the history of baseball, pretty much?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah pretty much
Although I’ve heard that Blylvevin’s or Seaver’s curve is pretty good too.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
Not a relevant example, because Mariano’s pitch is not the same as Motte’s.
A better example would be a guy who throws exactly the pitch that Motte throws, but 6 mph slower. Perhaps with better command, however, to atone for the velocity drop.
correct me if i'm wrong, arch support
but all he is saying is that higher velocity is an inherent advantage over lower velocity
seems pretty reasonable
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
That's it.
That’s all the argument was. Instead I’ve had to combat accusations that I said velocity is the only thing that determines success, or that I said that pitchers without velocity cannot be successful.
I admit I stated my argument unclearly at first, as it was a slapdash response to MooCow rather than a thoroughly composed retort to fourstick.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Where do I start?
First, many pitchers cruise (throw most of their pitchers) below their maximum velocity because it allows them to better command their pitches. As I said, Maddux COULD throw 93 when he first came up but generally DIDN’T because he couldn’t hit his spots as well.
Second, WAKEFIELD “ONLY” THROWS 75 BECAUSE THAT IS THE SPEED AT WHICH A KNUCKLEBALL MOVES THE MOST. He could certainly throw harder, but doesn’t because if he did his knuckleball wouldn’t knuckle. Instead, it would flatten out.
Third, It’s ridiculous, both for pitching and for hitting, to assume that there is no trade-off between velocity and control. The harder you throw the ball or swing the bat, the less control you have over your hand or bat barrel.
I guess I'm failing here.
I’m not “assuming” there’s no trade-off between velocity and control. I’m simply creating a hypothetical experiment. Soft-tossing pitcher is my control group. Velocity is my variable.
In order to have a successful experiment, all other variables must be eliminated or minimized. Hence the reason I’m not making adjustments to the other facets of said pitcher’s game.
Once again guys, this is purely hypothetical and it’s meant to illustrate that velocity is not over-rated.
Regarding Wakefield, I understand completely what you’re saying. I don’t think I ever disagreed with what you’re saying. In fact, I said exactly what you’re saying: Wakefield’s success is built, in part, on his lack of velocity.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Also
I don’t see where the Cow mentioned anything about the HOF. He simply said “successful MLB career”. I think Hershiser had a “successful” career, and he’s probably not going to the HOF. Same for guys like Jimmy Key, David Cone, Al Leiter, Mark Langston, etc.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
You're right.
The Cow never did mention HoF. I did.
I never said he mentioned HoF, did I?
The reason I started mentioning HoF is because the Cow used Maddux as an example. Not Hershiser, not Leiter, not Cone. Maddux.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
Ok.
“one guy” is inaccurate. But for every Maddux or Roberts, there are a hundred PJ Walters.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
And...
for every Clemens and Lincecum, there are a hundred Brien Taylor’s and Ben McDonald’s.
Throwing 94-95 doesn’t mean you’re just going to kick ass and take names. You still have to be able to pitch.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Did anyone say you don't have to be able to pitch?
I’m simply saying that, all things being equal, it’s better if you can throw harder.
Greg Maddux is going to have a great career. But Greg Maddux throwing 97 mile an hour heat is going to have a better career.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
And my disagreement with the Cow
was based on his comment that “‘throwing hard’…is over-rated”.
It’s not.
Throwing hard does great things for a pitcher.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
You don't know this to be a fact...
Greg Maddux is going to have a great career. But Greg Maddux throwing 97 mile an hour heat is going to have a better career.
Maybe 97 mph Greg Maddux doesn’t pitch for 22 seasons — he gets hurt after his 10th season and is retired by his 15th and never sniffs 300 wins. Maybe him throwing 97 would hurt his ability to locate his pitches.
You literally have no facts to back any of this up, it’s pure conjecture on your part. Suffice to say, there are plenty of pitchers who have been successful at the major league level without a 95+ mph fastball. Throwing hard, in and of itself, is NOT a predictor of future success.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Dude
What the hell. In my Maddux-con-heat and my Maddux-sans-heat example, I mean take the exact same career. Exact same number of innings, exact same opponents, exact same ERA+ or whatever time-adjusted stats you want to use, exact same park effects.
Of course it’s conjecture. That’s the point.
I’m trying to clarify to you why I, and the entirety of the scouting world, think velocity is important … that a pitcher with velocity has a better chance of success than a pitcher without.
And, if you think throwing harder inherently leads to more injuries, that’s an assumption I’m not willing to make.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
you can't do that though
The speed at which a pitcher throws is proportional to the strain they put on their body. Maddux throwing faster most likely doesn’t throw the same number of innnings in the long run and as such you can’t compare them the same. He may have more wins along the way but I seriously doubt he has the same total number of games or even years.
"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."
I don't think we can make that assumption when we're talking about HoF caliber players.
Nolan Ryan threw more than 190 innings in 16 seasons of his 27 season career.
Bob Gibson threw more than 190 innings in 13 seasons of his 17 season career.
Walter Johnson (who is purported to have had the hardest fastball of any pitcher before radar guns) threw more than 220 innings in 18 seasons of his 21 season career.
Three examples does not an argument make. But I think it illustrates that while “throwing harder=more injuries” might be the conventional wisdom, it’s not necessarily true.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Ryan and Gibson
had bodies that were built to take the punishment of throwing that hard over a long period of time. Maddux’s most likely is not, because he’s never thrown that hard.
Throwing at your maximum effort level (i.e. “overthrowing”) with shitty mechanics will lead to timing problems and eventual injury. So if you have a pitcher who throws 90 mph in an effortless manner, but you tell him that he should throw 95 mph if he’s going to make the big leagues, you’re setting that kid up for injury later on.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I'm sensing cognitive dissonance here.
You can’t throw out my examples of Ryan and Gibson and point to your own examples of successful soft-throwers with impunity.
Maximum effort level does not necessarily equal shitty mechanics. Just like less velocity does not necessarily equal a “crafty control artist”.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Why is anyone using HoF caliber players
as a baseline for general conclusions. HoF caliber players are the definition of an “outlier”.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Cow said Maddux is an example of a soft-tossing guy who had a pretty good career.
I thought it needed to be said that this did not mean soft-tossing righties were destined for the HoF.
It snowballed from there.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think you are the only one that took it that way.
I simply replied that there are as many soft tossing righties with good MLB careers as there are hard throwing right handers.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I don't think I'm the only one who took it that way.
But it’s clear you and I read it differently.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Actually...
…what Cow said was that there was no reason a guy tossing low 90’s fastball can’t have a successful career, and I stand by that statement with all four hooves.
:=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Nuh-uh!
Hall of Famers should be the basis for all comparisons! After all, 90% of all the players who ever played deserve to be in the Hall. It’s a fact; just look it up.
Adoration is the state furthest from understanding.
by the red baron on Dec 28, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not making any assumptions
simply bringing up possibilities that you seem to overlook.
You can’t just add a great heater to a pitcher’s arsenal and expect that exact same or better results. Adding that kind of velocity changes a pitcher’s makeup, development, how they’re handled by coaches and scouts, etc. It’s a drop of water in a pond — you change the surface of the water with just a single drop.
I’m trying to clarify to you why I, and the entirety of the scouting world, think velocity is important … that a pitcher with velocity has a better chance of success than a pitcher without.
Velocity is important, to a certain degree. Once it’s determined that you can throw 85+ mph though, it becomes less important. Scouts love “velocity” because it’s measurable and comparable. Good scouts look at a whole lot more things than just velocity when they are grading out pitchers. It’s not that it isn’t an important number, it’s that it’s not the MOST important number.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Dude, I'm not arguing with you that velocity IS the most important number.
I’m arguing to the Cow’s point that velocity is over-rated. It’s not.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Um...
I sometimes find that "throwing hard" and strike outs in general, are a bit over-rated: nice and useful, but not the be-all, end-all of a pitcher’s success. There is no reason why a pitcher with a low-90’s fastball can;t have a successful MLB career, provided he can spot it cowsistantly.
That’s what he said, and I agree with this. If you overrate strikeouts and “throwing hard”, you’ll miss some really good pitchers who can’t throw really hard and strike out a lot of guys, but who can be effective major league pitchers.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Ok, but who over-rates velocity then, by the Cow's definition?
What team out there is missing out on those really good pitchers who can’t throw hard? What scouts aren’t discovering really good pitchers who don’t throw hard?
If the guy pitches well, regardless of velocity, he will have success and may be an effective major league pitcher. Teams like velocity because it increases the chances a pitcher will have success.
But I’ve never heard anyone say “velocity is the only thing that matters!” What scout or GM would say that and still have a job?
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Oh Sure....
…ignore my nertlerb remarks but everyone get busy over an actual baseball statement…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Ok -- minor quibble
Teams like velocity because it increases the chances a pitcher will have success.
No, they like it because it’s measurable across all players, something that control isn’t, and that takes the guesswork and subjectivity out of scouting. If a guy can throw 95 mph, he should be able to throw 95 mph every day, but if he throws 88-89 with a wicked curveball and great change-up with great control, it would be easy for a scout to miss that guy if he had an off day, or for the club to not take the scout seriously because of subjective analysis.
This is how players like Pujols drop all the way to the 13th round.
A quick story:
I carted my brother around to 6 or 7 different “tryouts” between his sophomore and senior years in college. He was a 2B/3B, and I hated watching him try out, so I would always go watch the pitchers. There was one kid who was at 4 or 5 of the same tryouts we were at as a pitcher; he consistently came in at around 87 or 88 pitching off of some crappy HS mounds, and had a fantastic change-up — one of the better ones I’ve ever seen from a high school kid. My brother, who hits left-handed, faced him in 2 different simulated games and said he was much tougher to hit than the guys who were throwing 93-94 because he would change speeds, get strike one nearly 75% of the time on the corner, and then bury you with his pinpoint control and his great changeup.
All I know is that the scouts were far more concerned with the kids throwing 93-94 who got lit up by some of these hitters than they were about the 17 year old high school kid who threw in the upper 80’s and never got touched in any of the sim games I saw him pitch.
I do think that a lot of these kids fall through the cracks. I do think that you can be successful at the big league level throwing 87-88 with good control and good breaking stuff. If you were GM or scouting director, isn’t it easier for you to take the 95 mph guy, because if he fails you can always just say, “How can you blame me? He threw 95 mph!”. You can’t say that about the kid throwing 87-88 if he fails — you look like an idiot who doesn’t know what he’s doing. There’s a ton of ego involved here, and with only so many spots to draft in, kids get missed if they don’t wow people with velocity or strike out a ton of hitters at the high school level.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
If you pick the 87-88 mph kid
the reason you’re going to look like an idiot is because fewer of those pitchers pan out than the guys with high velocity.
And this goes back to what I was saying at first: Maddux is the exception to the crafty righty without velocity demographic, not the rule. You can point to more high-velocity, high-strikeout guys who enjoyed success comparable to Mad Dog than you can to guys who only top out at 90.
Ergo velocity is a better indicator of ML success.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
As I've said all along
It’s not an indicator of anything other than the ability to throw a baseball really hard. You need other skills to be successful. This just happens to be one that is easily measurable and can be quantified successfully for thousands of different pitchers so that you can compare them easily. As a predictor is pretty well sucks, just like any other single trait of any player.
Kinda like driving distance in golf. Even if you can drive it 320 yards and be in the fairway 80% of the time, you still aren’t making the PGA tour unless you can hit short irons and putt. Singling out one aspect as an “indicator” is a recipe for disaster.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I can't believe I'm still arguing this.
Did I “single out” velocity as the indicator of success? Did I say it’s the only thing or even the most important thing in predicting pitching ability?
I did not. Not in the comment you just replied to. Not anywhere on this page.
My words were “better indicator”. Which means exactly what it says. If you’re going to bet money on a pitcher’s success, his velocity is a pretty good indicator in that guys who throw hard tend to have longer careers in the majors than guys who don’t.
Make a list of rotation aces in the Majors. Now, check off which of them throw 88 and which throw 95. How many are in each category?
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Um
Ergo velocity is a better indicator of ML success.
That’s you, two comments ago. That either isn’t what you meant or that wasn’t what you meant to say. “Better indicator” or “indicator”? If we’re getting down to semantics I suggest we just stop this argument altogether.
I’m not making lists of “aces” and you really don’t want to go down that path either I don’t think — it’s not going to help your argument.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
i would think it would be true
That higher your MPH on your fastball the higher probability of success in the majors.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Alright dude.
I’m done.
I thought we were having a real conversation, but now I realize you’re just trolling.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Nertlerb?
:=8.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Dec 28, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the Cow was saying that nertlerbing is the new trolling
if that is the case, I will back away from my support of the nertlerb
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
No, No....
…no trolling; I was trying to inject a bit of (admittedly mild) humor into a situation that had gotten foul.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I will continue to support the nertlerb then
carry on
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'm not really going to get into this debate
But fastball velocity has a very high correlation to success in the majors. That does mean, that all other things being equal, a guy who throws harder is better.
There is a tradeoff, and some pitchers will be more successful if they threw softer; however, by the nature of the game, players do what is best for them. So if we recognize that players will change their velocity to tailor to their specific skills AND that fastball velocity STILL has a correlation to success, than we have to acknowledge that it is very important.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
This:
There is a tradeoff, and some pitchers will be more successful if they threw softer; however, by the nature of the game, players do what is best for them
That has been my point all along.
Is it important: Yes.
Can you be successful without being in the top 20% in fastball velocity: Yes.
I guess I don’t understand what is so difficult to understand about that.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I don't think that was arch supports point
He was saying, and maybe he can correct me, that fastball velocity is an indicator of success – which is absolutely true. You seem to be saying that velocity is not… but I could be wrong.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying it isn't an indicator of success
I think that it is, but only to a certain extent. You still need to be able to pitch.
The other thing I’ve been stating is that the reason it’s a good indicator is that it can be equally adjudicated for all players. It makes things easy. We haven’t gotten into the difference between hard throwers yet, but suffice to say, I bet you’re not going to find too many hard throwers who just pumped 4 seam fastballs into the strike zone (Jason Motte) — they had to have other pitches as well.
arch seems to be saying that if a kid can throw hard than he’s automatically a better shot to pitch in the majors, by that factor alone. I’m saying that simply isn’t true and can’t be proven with empirical evidence.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Response:
arch seems to be saying that if a kid can throw hard than he’s automatically a better shot to pitch in the majors, by that factor alone.
Small correction: I’m saying velocity gives a kid a better chance to pitch and succeed in the majors, as compared to his abilities in other facets like craftiness, bulldog mentality, control, etc. I never said velocity alone is the only thing that matters. In fact, I’ve said a number of times that it isn’t the only thing that matters. Hence the frustration.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
this is why I am lost on this whole f'in thread
it is obvious that this was your point from at least your second response:
Again, take a soft throwing pitcher with control and command and poise and a bulldog mentality and all that crap. Now, give that same pitcher a 96 mph fastball. Which version will be better?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
You and me both brother.
It’s been fun and all, but what the hell?
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
First off,
here is the relationship between fastball velocity and run value among all pitchers with at least 500 batters faced since 2007.
Slope: -.029
R-Squared: .076
P-Value: 7.735e-11
Remember that it’s better to have a lower run value as a pitcher, so fastball velocity does indeed indicate a lower run value – but the effect is small.
However, by using a 500 batter’s faced requirement we are introducing massive selection bias. For you to have faced 500 batters, you have to actually be a good pitcher and that doesn’t mean you have to throw hard. So fourstick is right that you can’t really use empirical evidence to show just how important fastball velocity is.
What you would need to do is look at how fastball velocity in the MINORS (or college or high school) correlates with time spent or success in the majors. Unfortunately, that data doesn’t exist.
So what you can do is look at scouting reports on prospects. Find all the information you can on their velocity, create rankings of each prospect based on velocity and a run a regression against that and major league success.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
This helps, thank you.
Such a compilation of data is beyond my means and abilities. But I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect the dudes who can throw the ball past a guy to tend to have better success than those who can’t.
That would be my hypothesis going in.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
There are some other ways, possibly
Find a useful way to group pitchers into categories of velocity and success (run value?), and then test for differences in the observed vs. expected frequency with which players with different velocities appear in different result groups.
This would tell you whether soft tossers are over or under represented in any given category, compared to what you would expect by chance alone.
I don't see why that would eliminate the selection bias
The whole point is that pitchers who make it to the majors with poor velocity will have other things going for them, like good command or movement. I want to try to isolate just how important velocity is.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
Selection bias
Go ahead and limit your population to > 500 (or whatever threshold you want).
Then derive achievement-based categories within that population.
You are correct about my point.
It’s been my understanding that fourstick is arguing that velocity is not an indicator of success, or at least that it’s unimportant compared to other facets.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
WTF?
That isn’t what I’m saying at all! No wonder you keep arguing with me!
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Ok, so why did vivaelpujols read your argument the same way I did?
Is the fault ours for not understanding you? Or yours for not being clear?
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
He didn't
I was never arguing that it wasn’t an indicator of success, simply that you don’t necessarily need it to be successful, and that more pitchers than just Greg Maddux have proven this. That, and the fact that velocity alone will not create a successful pitcher, so while it is an indicator it is not a PREDICTOR of future success.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
But it is a predictor
I agree that an indicator isn’t always the same as a predictor (correlation doesn’t equal causation and what not), but in this case, it’s pretty clear.
It’s obviously not the “sole” indicator, and arch support wasn’t arguing that; however, it’s a somewhat strong predictor of success at the major league level.
I really don’t see how you could argue with that. If you have two guys with the exact same attributes, the guy who throws harder will be better.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
He was also saying
that if a pitcher simply threw harder he would be more successful — but some guys aren’t built to “throw hard” all the time. They are better off throwing fluently, if a little slower, to either improve control or get more movement on their pitches.
I think pitchers should do what they do best, not try to fit some stereotypical “best” pitcher. Do what works for them.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
That's correct
arch support, did you actually say this?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
What I said was
if you take a pitcher of Maddux’s caliber – great control, movement on all his stuff, genius on the mound, etc. – and you suddenly make him capable of throwing 95 miles an hour, he’s going to be a better pitcher than he was before.
Fourstick then told me how silly I was to consider using a hypothetical situation as everyone with even a basic grasp of reality knows you can’t just increase velocity without sacrificing something else.
Apparently thought experiments are not allowed as argumentation.
I never said all pitchers should throw harder.
I never said pitchers who don’t throw hard won’t succeed.
I never said pitchers shouldn’t do what works for them.
I never said that velocity is the only thing, or even that it’s the most important thing.
I said that: pitchers with heat will, on the whole, have a greater chance of continued success versus pitchers without heat.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
well what about greg maddux, smart guy?
didn’t think of that, did you?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Greg Maddux Throwing 97 MPH High Heat + dose of CRAZYsauce = Jason Motte
fixed
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
maybe the professor is an outlier
…sorry. sorry, I had to.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
lol brien taylor reference
i remember when his rookie card was worth more than a nickel
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Dec 28, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
He said "soft tossing righty"
If we add soft tossing lefties to the mix, well, he doesn’t have much of a point at all.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Robin Roberts wasn't a soft tosser.
he had great control but also threw the ball hard. Mid 90’s.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, actually
Roberts wasn’t a soft tosser until he tore up his arm. After that, he went from being THE ELITE pitcher in baseball to a below average-average pitcher for most of his career.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Maddux
He is definitely the exception, not the rule.
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
by flipthebird on Dec 28, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Let's also take something else into consideration when talking about all these HOF
pitchers. Anything Pre-1980 when referring to wins has less to do with velocity and more with the ability to stay later into games.
If you look at something like adjusted ERA+ for careers after the deadball era, you are going to see a majority of hard throwers.
Being able to control your pitches, no matter how fast or slow they are is what make the best pitcher. For every pitcher without great stuff (Trevor Hoffman) that gets away with it you have one that has great stuff with no control (Randy Johnson) that gets away with it too.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Big Unit
Look at his career at baseball reference. One thing sticks out to me: From 1990-1992, he led the league in walks in every season and was a good pitcher, but not an elite one. Then, in 1993, his walk rate dropped by nearly 3 per 9 innings, and he became an elite pitcher pretty much overnight. From 1993 – 2009, his BB/9 is a respectable 2.7 with a K/9 of 11.
Randy Johnson wasn’t “getting away” with having no control. He gave up more hits in the years where he gave up more walks. He became an elite pitching monster when he got his walk rate down below 3.5 per 9 innings.
As a thrower, he was a #3 starter. As a pitcher, he’s one of the best of all time.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
This speaks to my point, I think.
RJ had velocity. He didn’t have control. He learned control and he became an elite pitcher.
Now lets say RJ didn’t have velocity or control. Then he learns control. Is he still going to be an elite pitcher?
While learning control was the tipping point that started his success, his velocity and nasty stuff (read: ability to strike guys out) is what gave him the chance to be the elite pitcher he became.
I’m not saying you don’t need control to be a great pitcher. But velocity is certainly important and very hard to over-rate.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
Fixed
(read: ability tostrike guys outscare the living fuck out of lefties with his slider)
* is an Asshat
You don't know
Now lets say RJ didn’t have velocity or control. Then he learns control. Is he still going to be an elite pitcher?
Could be he becomes an elite pitcher. Andy Pettitte is a good example of this. So is Warren Spahn.
It speaks to both of our points, actually, in that Unit was destined to be a middle of the road starter with a 97 mph fastball that he couldn’t locate and a nasty slider than nobody would swing at. He had great talent, but his innate ability to throw 97 mph alone didn’t get him to an elite level. He had to develop as a pitcher first.
I think that a guy who throws 90 mph with 3 better than average breaking pitches (a similar talent to being able to throw 95+ mph, imo) will probably be a pretty good starter whether he can find the strike zone or not, but if he’s got good control, he’ll be an elite level starter.
There’s more than one way to skin a cat.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Excuse me if I sound frustrated, but I feel like I'm repeating myself.
Andy Pettite, while a very good pitcher, is no Randy Johnson. Nor is he what I would call an “elite” pitcher.
And I’ve never said there isn’t more than one way to skin a cat. I only said that one of those methods of skinning will bring you more success than the others.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'll just agree to disagree then
This argument is going nowhere.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
In a totally unscientific study, look at today's starters
Of the top 20 pitchers in FIP, I would say only Cliff Lee, Wainwright, Haren, Christy Matthewson, Wandy and Nolasco don’t have at least above average velocity—-everyone else, 14/20, can at least touch 95+. Wandy and Lee are lefties so they should hardly count (and Lee probably has above average for a lefty); Wainwright has Zeus’ curveball; Haren has a cutter from hell, this is Pineiro’s first and probably only trip to the top of this leaderboard, and I’ve never seen Nolasco pitch.
On the flip side, of the bottom 20 in FIP, I’ve got Pelfrey, Penny, Ohlendorf, Cueto and Porcello as the only ones with above average velocity. 5/20. Porcello was a 20 year old rookie and Ohlendorf barely made this list with a late season velocity surge…..when he coincidentally enough was also at his best.
There’s a reason scouts look to see if a guy can throw 95+. Just because you have velocity doesn’t mean you are good, but it’s a useful thing……along with control/command, off-speed, etc.
Not afraid to nitpick
This is informative, thank you.
Pitchers with better velocity tend to be better pitchers. The correlation is not 1:1, surely. But it would be reasonable to expect a pitcher with higher velocity to have a more successful career than a pitcher without.
And just to cover my ass: velocity is not the only thing that matters.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Thing is...
Pitchers with better velocity tend to be better pitchers
That isn’t what he said, and that’s why I"m having such a hard time with your argument. They don’t “tend to be better pitchers”, they “tend to have more success if they ARE better pitchers”. I’m sorry, but I think that is a huge difference.
Joker is discounting the skills of those other pitchers, who have innate talent to throw a great curveball, cutter, sinker, etc. rather than throwing 95 mph. They don’t throw 95, but the number of starting pitchers in the majors who throw 95 consistently can be counted on one hand. I can find far more starters who have mastered changing speeds and a good breaking ball than i can guys who simply whip it by people.
Also, FIP tends to overvalue the strikeout just a bit, so of course a large percentage of those guys are going to be at the top of the FIP leaderboard.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
FIP DOESN'T OVERVALUE THE STRIKEOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I swear to god Fourstick, I swear to fucking god.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
FIP absolutely overvalues the K
and it tends to bring pitchers on the margins back towards the mean.
It’s a crap stat.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Thank you for that
stirring, well-thought out defense of FIP.
LOL
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Here is a link I posted a few weeks back
I assume you can read, but I might be wrong.
http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2009/11/pitching-to-contact-and-fip.html#comments
Please read all of that, and tel me EXACTLY how FIP overvalues strike outs.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmmm
OK, direct quote from the article:
“Now that that is out of the way, FIP does overvalue strikeouts if a team’s defense is very good, but only slightly, and, conversely, it actually undervalues strikeouts if a team has poor defense.”
What do I win?
On the more salient point of whether, as I posited, “FIP is a crap stat”, or perhaps more charitably, whether it “tends to bring pitchers on the margin back towards the mean”, just think about it.
Where do those event average values come from? From an average of the value of those four component events across all contexts. So, consequently, the average value of a BIP for the bottom 10% of pitchers in the league will tend to make the value of a BIP better (for the offense) because (A) the ball is hit harder and presumable harder to catch, and more importantly, (B) bad pitchers will have more runners on base. An elementary way to put this is that a BIP against Chris Carpenter is worth less to the offense than a BIP against Todd Wellemeyer because Carpenter is less likely to have guys on base for that BIP to bring in. The same is true of walks, of course.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
....
"Now that that is out of the way, FIP does overvalue strikeouts if a team’s defense is very good, but only slightly, and, conversely, it actually undervalues strikeouts if a team has poor defense."
I fail to see how that makes your point. If a team has poor defense, FIP will also undervalue the negative impact of the walk and home run.
There is nothing germane to the FIP formula that causes it to overvalue anything.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
The real problem with FIP. . .
is that it is a context-independent stat in a game that is complex-dependent. And that its use of the average values of the outcomes of batter/pitcher match-ups is averaged across wide swaths of qualities of pitchers.
It’s worth something, but it’s not the holy grail of pitching stats that many make it out to be. xFIP is better, and TRA and xTRA are better still, but they too have their rather serious limitations.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
I hate context in baseball statistics
because, for the most part, it hasn’t been proven that players can perform differently based on the context in a non-random manner. Even when we find players that are “clutch” on a year to year basis they are 1) rare and 2) still better defined by their overall numbers which tend to dwarf the more minor “clutch” component of their contributions.
The whole point of FIP is to be context-neutral; calling it a failure because it isn’t context dependent is like saying a car is worthless because it isn’t an airplane.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on Dec 28, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you missed the point of his concerns Azur, which are valid
But I’ll address them and why he is still wrong to say that FIP overvalues the strikeout in a little bit.
I have to make a donut burger with bacon first (yes I am seriously doing this).
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'm actually going to make it later tonight
I’m just making a normal onion burger now.
I’ll post a fanshot with pictures later tonight after I make it.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
what is "normal"
about an onion burger?
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I get his concerns
about pulling everyone towards a mean (rather than developing linear weights for each individual — GAH! the variance) and, like you said, they are valid.
The non-sequitor to FIP being context-independent is garbage though. FIP intentionally tries to take pitchers out of the context of each individual event and apply an average (neutral) context to create a baseline. If you want a descriptive or context-dependent stat, they are out there (WPA). But don’t complain that FIP isn’t a silver bullet. FIP is what it is; nothing more, nothing less.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
There is nothing germane to the FIP formula that causes it to overvalue anything.
And besides, I think it was invented in America.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
probably by one of those greedy sabermetric whores who just
take existing metrics and put a w, an x, and + on it and watch them money roll in from wxWHIP+.
you bastards. you greedy, greedy bastards.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Maddux was the greatest wxWHIP+ pitcher in the game
This proves that having the face of a thoughtful frog is the only important thing in being a great pitcher.
/non-reality argumentation.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
That was such a trainwreck of a thread.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
GOL
Giggle Out Loud
(I don’t care how girly that sounds, I couldn’t help but giggle)
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
it does undervalue a good mustache.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 28, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i gotta start paying attention to this math stuff.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Wow
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 28, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
tis the season for some horror and suspense
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/12/28/1221996/matt-hollidays-best-offer
annnnd I tried to find one post where Amazin’ Avenue discussed it, but it’s still very much an AA meeting over there.
http://www.nysportsday.com/2009/12/27/talking-baseball-with-mets-gm-omar-minaya/
Although the purpose of Minaya’s visit to the Bronx was to speak in honor of Clemente, he did not ignore the interest of those present in the 2010 baseball season. When Latino Sports CEO Julio Pabon told those attending that questions would be limited to the topic of Roberto Clemente, Minaya gently interrupted, "It’s winter; they want to talk about baseball. Let’s take four or five questions."
Minaya responded to those baseball queries without hesitation or annoyance. When asked why the Mets are not pursuing free agent outfielder Matt Holiday in addition to Jason Bay, Minaya replied, "We are pursuing Matt Holiday. It seems to be easier to make a deal for Jason Bay."
I love a good thriller for the holidays. Especially when the guy with the steel balls wins.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
well... tis not a good sign
considering holliday wants to go to the mets.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
by zoomzoomj88 on Dec 28, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
where'd he say that?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
we don't even know if his fb is legit
so i wouldn’t cite that source
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
by zoomzoomj88 on Dec 28, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
"Easier to make a deal for Jason Bay"
I thought they were getting no where with that….
MB for LF in 2010!
I think he meant "cheaper" implicitly
Easier I would guess implies that Bay isn’t represented by Scott Boras.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I wonder if this is the latest...
the top two FAs have ever gone without being signed.
I can’t remember it ever taking so long. I’m starting to go entire days without bothering to look at mlbtr.
MB for LF in 2010!
all tied up together now
bay seekers want holliday to sign first, and
vice versa
will be interesting to see who folds first and signs
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
I wonder if the Cards
- should low-ball Bay
- to panic the Mets into overpaying Bay
- thus blocking up any payroll for Holliday
- ???
- profit
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
i worry
that holliday’s ultimate contract will be a bay+ deal as much as anything else in the “market”
better if bay signs short and cheap
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
with us? or the Mets?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
i would personally be OK with a long, expensive Bay deal
so long as it’s based in north chicago.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Just offer a sixth year...
at $18 million. That only takes him to age 35. He’ll likely hit the crap out of the ball until then, or at least come close.
MB for LF in 2010!
Ok
1. yes, we should
2. yes, we definitely should
3. isn’t this cowllusion?
4. nertlerb
5. is always nice
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
..
3. not coWllussion if you don’t tell the mets about it. and if you do, what’s the point
5. more bacon
note how MooCow passes it off as established
crafty! dare I say even…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think this is rather.......
IIIIIIIINNNNNNTTTTTRRRRRRIIIIIIGGGGGGUUUUUUUEEEEEEIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNGGGGGGG!
* is an Asshat
intriguing
though I must say, it’s f’in hard to spell-check memes.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
nice work
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I googled "nertlerb"
and it brought up your profile and comments
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
can it be cowllusion if the other party is too dumb to realize it?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Holliday sure has made the case for signing an extension pre-free agency, hasn't he?
It makes me wonder on the give-and-take between he and Boras. How bad would it make the super-agent look if Holliday declined a huge deal from the Rockies, a huge deal from Boston, and then signing for less than each of those offers elsewhere because of the “market”?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I worry that there isn't any give-and-take
like an absentee landlord
or a guy who wants to watch some Bowl games before he checks the free-agent market himself
I believe… someone correct me if I’m wrong, I think Boras et al said they weren’t negotiating during the Cards’ exclusive window, right?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
i love fish sticks!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
borass is a socialist
he bases his approach on a structured economy/market that goes up every year
this applies to the beginning of each new contract compared to the previous one, and to each year in the “new deal”. most agents ascribe to this, but they have no capital at risk, so it is easy to have this approach.
i guess he/they have not kept up with the need for stimulus funds, bailouts, etc. where i work we haven’t has a raise in 3 years and won’t get one next year. think scott will represent me?
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
you mean cowpitalist?
and i agree
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
question is
who bails him out?
sitting there with your factory idle hoping someone will pay X for your product instead of Y for another until you go bankrupt, aka, going chrysler.
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
At Least Chrysler....
….paid back their bail-outs, with interest, both of them. Ultimately, it was win-win.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I don't think you have your finger on the pulse of the sports agency market
they actually have quite a bit of capital at risk.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 29, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
and no fucking politics!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 29, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure that's true
He turned that offer down in a totally different market, coming off of an MVP type season. I think that his expectation for a similar AAV over a longer number of years with a no-trade clause was a positive expectation at that time.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Boras
Boras could spin it off as
1. Being a nice guy by giving his player what he wanted
2. Being a nice guy for giving a “hometown discount”
3. Being a nice guy for being a nice guy
You may run like Hayes, but you hit like shit.
by flipthebird on Dec 28, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
spin doesn't get Boras his cut
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
This Nertlerb Thing...
has been your rocket from the crypt. You went from the strange dude who incorporated cow noises into his comments (quite seamlessly, I should add) to being big steer on the range. My hat’s off to you, MooCow.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks Very Mooch...
…and, I might add, that I love Rocket From the Crypt!
:=8D
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Then...
you’re more delightful a bovine than I previously knew you to be.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
when you bang on and on about nertlerb
I wish you were “hanging on a rope”.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Nertlerb is a much better meme
than that variation of first/fist crap. Almost all of us can agree on that, no?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
that's like saying cow pies are better because they're pies?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I don't understand what you are getting at
Cow pies are better because they are pies.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
f'in matty! that's why holliday won't sign!!!!
“why would i play in st. louis? the fans there just sent me pies full of shit. i hate st. louis.”
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 28, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
you disgust me.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
usually only women tell me this
why would you say such a thing?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
and you can't even execute a proper TWSS
tsk tsk
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
because I'm never early enough to be first
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Holliday is wha---
oh.
f’n Matt.
you at least get any leftovers out of the deal?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
stupid amount of leftovers
and a bunch of gift cards to places I don’t like to shop. I wish I would of just gotten gift cards to the Federal Reserve.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Gift cards
are still somewhat fungible. At least you didn’t get any ties, sweaters, or fruit cake. Or did you? I would not enjoy a gift card to Bed, Bath, and Beyond Bodyworks or whatever those foo foo stores are called.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Places to eat like Stumpy's and Steak N Shake
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
They thought Fat guy would like additional food
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
well gift card to the gym
might have been a little insulting then
clothes that don’t fit too
wonder if those establishments would let you cash your gift cards in bacon…
but I asked for a gift card to the gym
It was the only thing I even asked for Christmas.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Plan C??
The Giants are close to a two-year deal with Mark DeRosa, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
don't forget the price
$6MM a year would be big bucks for DeRosa, as he turns 35 in February and had wrist surgery in November.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
It's been my belief
all along that the Cards didn’t want to sign DeRosa for 3 years at his asking rate of 8 per, given his age and other options. But two years at 6 per seems difficult to pass up, if his surgery was successful (which it seems to have been).
How is it we have anything to base our assessment of his wrist health on?
He hasn’t taken any swings in front of scouts, from what I know. Nor has he done so for team representatives, that I know of. We’re basically taking his agent’s word for it at this point. With his age and wrist surgery, I think 2 years, $12MM is kind of steep myself.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Do any of you know where my copy of MVP Baseball 2005 for the XBOX is?
I heard today that it might finally be backwards compatible for the 360 and I’m trying to check the validity of such statements.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions
that would be awesome
if only I hadn’t gotten rid of my copy…
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
I ditched...
my Xbox to go with PS3. However, of all the dozens of Xbox games I got rid of… I kept MVP 05 and MVP 06 NCAA despite no longer having the console. That’s how important those games are to me.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
why would you guys ever get rid of your Xbox's?
You should of modded them to use them for media centers. I have them wired up to all the tv’s in my house and hooked up to my network server.
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
I ditched the console...
because it quit reading games. The reader eye failed on me and I also had to wedge my student ID and driver’s license underneath the tray to keep it up high enough to play the games on the rare occasion it could read them.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
The old console hoosier solution.
Anything’s better than taking it in after the warranty’s expired.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
um
You should of modded them to use them for media centers. I have them wired up to all the tv’s in my house and hooked up to my network server.
um. he said he has a ps3. his ps3 does that
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I honestly...
don’t believe Microsoft takes care of their customers. I just feel like they are nickel and dime’ing 360 owners for every little thing that the PS3 includes stock. It took a lot of convincing for me to go with PS3 too, cause I was all about Xbox, but when the guy knocked the price of the PS3 to $350 (which is what 360’s were at the time), it had a way of swaying my opinion.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
I used to...
I really did. But holy hell, the PS3 is one hell of a machine. My brother has the 360 and I’ve compared them extensively and grow more certain in my purchase decision all the time. If you’re a Halo guy, then it’s really pointless to explore PS, but lordy I hate that game and 360 doesn’t have any other exclusives to sway me while PS3 was shoving that glorious, beautiful MLB The Show under my nose.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
best graphics
plus all the details of gameplay, all the rules of arb, free agency, drafts, all that. so realistic. great game
plus, you like exclusives?
how bout mgs4? final fantasy
did i mention it plays bluray?
hey
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
except final fantasy is also coming out on the 360
i got the 360 cause ps3 wasnt out and so that is my gaming platform of choice. i recently got a slim ps3 that i mainly use for blu ray.
only ffxiii versus
none of the others
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Maybe it's becaused I'm not a big online play guy...
but the idea of paying to play The Show or GTA or NBA 2k10 online just makes me mad. I don’t know what the big idea is that makes XB Live different from PSN, but I can’t imagine it’s worth paying for (especially when you consider that 360 also asks you pay for a wireless adapter).
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
It just simply has much more users online
Call of Duty online is money
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
there are
over 3mil users on modern warfare 2 for ps3
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
the only other online game i have
is mlb ‘09 the show. and i’ve never not been able to immediately get into a game
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Likewise...
I’ve never had trouble. The only game I have trouble with these days is GTAIV, but it’s been out for quite a while now.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
As Flim says
it has so many more users. Baseball games in themselves aren’t a good reason for using XL anyway.
Also, you don’t have to pay for a wireless adapter. There are a few other ways of using it without much effort (or expense, if any).
The Games I Play...
apparently aren’t any good reason for online play. COD is the only game I play that probably has a worthwhile online experience and I still don’t really get into it. I think I get bummed out when I realize that I’m twenty-two and playing a video game against mostly 12-14 year old kids.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Nobody beats me...
at MLB 09 The Show.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
we just bridge the connection
on our laptops and use their network adapters to get wireless for xbox live
R.P.O.F.Y.M.
oh
well mine is free
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I went to 360
and have no idea what you are talking about
Blaine Matthew Burns: Albert Pujols' biggest fan (his first words will for sure be "Albert Pujols is RIDICULOUS")
Everyday that Holliday remains unsigned
and I hear about other left fielders going elsewhere, feels like we’re getting a little closer to the day the Yankees say, “Eff this.” and sign Holliday.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
does kind of have that feeling of inevitability, doesn't it?
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
TWJPS
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
do what?
there was no whispering involved. * is still *
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
question: should that happen
should the rest of the teams in baseball, or at least in the AL, even bother playing? Barring injury, that lineup is so formidable I just don’t see any way they don’t repeat. Ok, that might be a little extreme, but they’d definitely be the favorites going into the season by a vast, vast margin. I can already sense my loathing—which has been tilted more towards the BoSox since 2004—tipping back towards the Yankees.
Thing is
I think injuries are a very real threat to that team. They have an aging team that’s actually gotten older, and they have very little depth outside of their starting 9.
Posada and Johnson have had injuries issues in the past, A-Rod was hurt last year, Jeter isn’t getting any younger, and Burnett could miss half a season with an injury.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I don't really hate the Yankees
They’re exploiting a strength of their brand, owner, market, etc to school the rest of baseball.
Now if the RedSox were to collectively fall off a cliff, I wouldn’t be perturbed one bit. I watched the 2003 ALCS Game 7 last night on ESPN Classic. I can remember exactly where I was, who I was watching the game with and my reaction when Boone hit that 11th inning HR. It was flipping sweet. Watching the broadcast again last night was a blast.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
I remember casually watching this game...
with both of my roommates at Tres Hombres in Carbondale…pretty sure I got really tanked that night
I crawled the earth, but now I'm higher, 2010 watch it go to fire!
by First mammal to wear pants on Dec 28, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
why the sox?
they still maintain a payroll that doesn’t only exist in bizarro world and is comparable to other teams like the mets and cubs. they’ve just been really good for a while
but fuck the yankees. hate to go all third grade on you guys, but $225MM on payroll is just not fair. especially when the marlins have to stay under 40
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
true
but it’s not like they could even compete with someone like cincinnati’s payroll
which is sad
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
you guys saw this, right?
biz of baseball calculates salary over 99-09.
* The Yankees, the number one ranked club in spending over the last 11 years, has spent over 44 percent more than the number two top spender, the Red Sox.
* The Yankees have spent 465 percent more over the same period of time as the Florida Marlins, the lowest ranked club in total player payroll spending over the last 11 years
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i'm waiting for flipflop to come up with a snazzy graphic of that
unless someone else wants to infograph it up
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
cards
have the most expensive cheap tickets
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Obstructed View Seats
That’s only because the Yanks slashed their obstructed view bleacher seats after the NY Times and others ran stories on the lack of a discount, though, isn’t it?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
pretty impressive considering
the dow jones is down 10% IN THAT TIME FRAME
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
Not to be all arbitrary or anything. . .
but the Marlins and Yankees (and Cardinals, for that matter) have the same exact number of championships in the past 9 seasons.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 28, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Championships don't reflect true team talent
The short-series structure of the postseason is the only reason baseball can still pretend to have parity.
We're going through a new avatar test phase here at mojowo11. Please be patient as we may try a variety of new ideas over the coming days and weeks.
by mojowo11 on Dec 28, 2009 6:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
This has been my biggest fear this off season
We wait around to long for Holliday and get left holding our hands in the air saying we tried our best. Than some how we end up with Randy Winn
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
it's such a weak market, though
everyone knew we were going in with a 99% chance of Holliday being a rental. to me, getting him is a bonus — and only if it doesn’t cripple the franchise for the next few years. Boras is the only one making a big deal about it.
I would be okay with Mo saying we tried our best … if only because that would prove that this guy doesn’t really want to wear the BOB. Centiquid faked more enthusiasm for St. Louis in a brief signing statement than Legoman did while he was playing for the club. And if I’m really honest with myself, I don’t think I’d be too bitter if he raked with some East Coast behemoth. I’m not gonna be that kid at the end of the movie: “Nutshot! Nutshot! Come back!”
the impasse may hurt season ticket sales, but on the whole I am far more interested in next year’s crop. and The Negotiation.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Agreed!
When they dealt the Melk-man, I thought: “Uh-oh. Hole in LF. Here we go again. The flippin’ dark side swoops in with its bucket of cash.”
Look at the bright side, though. Once the Yankees have eight superstar position players, all signed to mega-$ long-term deals, Boras will only be able to negotiate pitchers with them. ;)
GAWWWWWWWWW!
We’re taking questions for Cards pitcher Blake Hawksworth, who will be doing a Q&A for his next blog entry this afternoon. Reply or dm.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that'll learn me to not check the twitters
“oh, there won’t be anything cool, nothing’s happening”
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
in other news
i’ve spent most of today in bed with a hangover, and have become absolutely addicted to this game: http://www.addictinggames.com/pinchhitter2.html
It’s really hard but quite rewarding. I haven’t gotten past the little leagues yet – took me an hour or two to hit dingers more than about 10% of the time in the sandlot, but in the little league stadium i only hit one out once in a blue moon.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
i think i am joe mauer.
I hit all, and I mean ALL, of my dingers to oppo field, and lace line-drive doubles pretty much every time I make contact… Still not good enough to hit 15000 points in little league though :-(
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
I've gotten to the big leagues
….and then I gave up, lol.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
i seriously hit about 1% of the little league pitches for dingers
though i can hit 4 or 5 per game to the top of the wall. It’s really frustrating. I think you need to hit a minimum of 2 dingers (probably 3, really) in 10 pitches to get past that bit. I can top 25000 in the sandlot, though…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
oh god NOOOOO
i just got to 15000 points in little league, one pitch left. I could’ve just taken it for a strike and still finished above 15000, but I swung and hit it to a fielder, which loses 1000 points. It feels strangely appropriate that I am playing as the Cardinals and my inability to take a pitch has cost me in the most galling way possible. Hal McRae would be proud….
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
finally, in the big leagues
after I finished the 15000 points thing, it only took me about 3 goes to hit consecutive dingers…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I find the 10 pitches without an out...
to be way too difficult. I’m on little league and cannot get passed it.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
It would be a lot easier...
if Spud gat dang Webb would stop upping 12 feet to nab all of my hits.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
i don't find those ones to be too hard
the annoying thing is that the technique to do well at those (i.e. swing slightly above the pitch to knock it into the ground) is exactly the opposite technique you need to use to crank dingers (get underneath the ball to loft it). Kinda like how playing golf ruins your tennis swing, or something…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
i only needed 2000 points on the last two pitches in the major leagues
to complete the first challenge, then whiffed on both :-(
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
i hate that game
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
"before it breaks"
heh
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Simple....
just swing righty.
* is an Asshat
by RiverRat on Dec 28, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Hit right handed for starters
Go Broncos!!
by from First to Third on Dec 28, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
ask Boog
if he doesn’t know by now, we’re doomed
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i forgot i ordered one!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
You're lucky, mine seemed to have taken a trip around the fricking world before it got to me.
Maybe all my (totally justifiable) bitching motivated him to ship all of yours at a reasonable time.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I hate to say this (because I read it on the moron forum)...
but a jackass on that stupid MLBTR site that 1380 in St Louis claims the Cardinals signed Beltre to a 2 year deal. Tell me this is not the case.
sounds unlikely
that’d rule Holliday out. If it was dirt cheap I wouldn’t mind it, but I just don’t think it sounds likely at all.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
how much money?
where was money mentioned?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
This joker said...
2 years at $17m with a 3rd option year worth $12m.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
not bad
you can probably project him for about 3 war
not my first choice, but 8.5MM isn’t that outrageous for him
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
if we had a suitor for freese i wouldn't mind it.
i’d then go grab cust to give us our “impact bat” (albeit with an “impact” glove of the wrong sort) and stock up on some crazy good pitching.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
sounds good to me
and really, 3 war for beltre might be conservatice considering he is moving to the nl, moving to a slightly more hitter friendly park and another year removed from nut injury
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
also
apparently safeco squashes righty power better than just about any non-san diego park in baseball, he’s lost a lot of HR because of that.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
A fun project for people lying in bed with a hangover.
See how many of his flyouts last season in Seattle would have been homers in Busch III over at Hit Tracker…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Why is Allen Craig...
not an option for left field with 3B taken care of?
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
he needs a platoon partner
like cust
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Obviously,
I’m a day late and a dollar short to this subthread. You folks just continue on without me.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
Right.
I agree with this comment from the fellow who braved the Christmas 2009 Storm. 2 years is a nice length (and I hope it’s a club option for the third), and $8.5MM AAV is a pretty fair salary for his services.
I only hope this means that we sign a lefty to platoon with Craig, top slugger of the Future Redbirds, in LF.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
man
it was some crazy weather, too
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I Have This...
heinous man-crush on Allen Craig. I want him in LF next year if Holliday’s out of the picture. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind a Craig/Cust LF with a 1st round pick for Holliday.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
You're preaching to the choir here.
I probably think Craig is better at third base defense than most everyone. I also probably anticipate him to be a better big-league hitter than the majority of us. But, lets be clear, he is not Matt Holliday good and never will be.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I did say...
if Holliday is out of the picture. Otherwise, I see no reason not to play Craig at 3B and save some dollars. I watched him play plenty of 3B here in Springfield and see now reason why he’s not capable.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
I know you did.
But I find myself thinking, “We’ll be okay with ______ at third and Craig/________ in LF.” And we will be. But, we’d be a lot better than just “okay” with Holliday in LF.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I agree with you.
I just want Craig to have a place on this team next year, I feel like he has earned that.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Why a platoon?
He’s been a good hitter against same handed pitchers in the minors if not as good as against oppo-hannded pitchers.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
i don't know his splits off hand
but his mle splits were huge. something like a .900 ops against lefties
also, because we need insurance if he flames out and isn’t good enough to play every day
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
because he's projected to be a below-average hitter with a meh glove in a non-premium defensive spot
against RHP. Not that he’s THAT much weaker than he is against lefties, but as he’s probably a fringey-sort-of player anyhow, we might as well get the best possible production we can out of him…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
mle's for craig's 2009 campaign.
v. lhp: ops of .847
v. rhp: ops of .710
i take mle’s with large scoops of salt, but there it is.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
there we go
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
He's projected to be a league average hitter overall.
He’s brought down by positional adjustment and a little on defense but he’s an average hitter (~.330 wOBA).
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
yah, but if he has a regular platoon split
(as his minor league splits suggest) he’ll be below average vs RHP and above average vs LHP. If his glove isn’t going to provide much value, I don’t see why we’d want to start him too much vs RHP, plus, I think using him primarily against lefties gives him the best chance to succeed.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
league average hitter
or league average LFer?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
CHONE has him 2 runs above average offensively
so basically a league average hitter, or a shade above. Assuming average defence, that’ll put him in the 1.5 WAR range.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
What the Monk said.
He’s a league average hitter (offense) but overall is a little below “average” for a player.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
well, what i meant
was league average hitter or league average offensive output for a LFer, but i’m pretty sure he answered my question
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
have you found him yet?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Now, he's still missing until he's penciled into the Opening Day lineup...
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
It's in the comments...
of the Holliday Contract Offers.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
a link
guys, if you want to link to comments on almost any forum, grab the link with the date-and-time. you can test it by clicking on it, and almost any browser will jump to that comment.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm listening...
to this station on the internet now, I don’t know who this moron Slaten is but no one’s said anything yet.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
"Anyone who spends a nickel to watch Cardinals baseball needs to have their head examined."
…Why is this guy on the radio in St Louis?
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Ya....you really just need to turn that
off, and pretend that you’ve never heard of the guy. It will be the best thing you could do for yourself.
* is an Asshat
does anybody really SPEND nickels anymore? i can't remember the last time i gave somebody a nickel for anything.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 28, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I keep a stockpile of nickels for parking meters.
by mynameistyler on Dec 28, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
ever since nickels started buying me a 3.2 minute stay in a parking spot, i've thought even nickels were pointless.
the best use of a stockpile of nickels is to put them in a good sock and use it in self-defense.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
by tom s. on Dec 28, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Fling 'em at girls you like but are too nervous to talk to.
At least, that’s what happened to them in high school.
by arch support on Dec 28, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
i'm hoping this thread culminates in a centiquid picture
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Who is this "Greg" commenter
and is anyone in St. Louis to confirm they heard this on the radio as well? Signing Holliday, Beltre and Smoltz would sound to me like a fairly busy day.
NorCal CARDS FAN
maybe he runs matt holliday's FB
from the north side of chicago
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh really?
even better
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i heard he doesn't even have a fake name
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
this is a cute little timewaster
http://www.miniclip.com/games/baseball/en/
fortunately the rockin’ beat in the intro is not there the whole time
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
if a small bear **** in the woods...
- A week ago, we heard conflicting reports about whether or not the Yankees had talked to the Cubs about acquiring Carlos Zambrano. SI.com’s Jon Heyman reports, via Twitter, that the Yankees “definitely” inquired, and speculates that Zambrano is “eminently available.”
- In a piece for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, David O’Brien suggested in passing that the Braves could potentially use Melky Cabrera as a trade chip. Heyman tweets that the Cubs would be very interested, if the Braves were to make Cabrera available.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that's from
and a few other items here
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
because you told them to shut up
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
show me where
on the doll….
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
It mights just be a donut burger
I don’t really want to die of cholesterol.
I plan on using the donut as the buns, first frying the donut.
Should I put cheese, lettuce, avacado, etc.?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
You've got to use bacon man......
it’s too good to pass up. And besides, you’re young cholesterol is not a word you should even know yet.
* is an Asshat
wash it down with tequila
everyone knows tequila counteracts cholesterol
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
tequila?
wash it down with chocolate syrup
or gravy
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
goose fat
definitely.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
so many long posts and replies to try to get through it all....
So instead, what do ya’ll think of this post by Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-new-moneyball-approach/
I'm like a polygon, I'm edgy.
"OHHHHH!!!!!!! IT TASTES. SO. GOOD!!!!!!!!!!"
-BOOOOOOOOG
i liked the article on the orioles outfield.
luke scott could be an interesting trade target.
may not be sufficiently better than what’s out there on the FA market (ryan church/gabe gross/kelly johnson) but another name to keep in mind.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
I Like Luke Scott, a Lot...
We cud do far worse in LF if we can’t get Holliday. He is a + outfielder with good power and OB% who hits righties a bit better than lefties for his career, but not by a whole lot. What would it take to get him? And if we do, what would we do with the Holliday moolah?
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
i would like Scott too
but the usual caveats about trading for/signing someone just after they’ve had a career year probably apply.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 29, 2009 7:09 AM EST up reply actions
Insensitive analogy approaching - you were warned!
So if MLK, Jr. was around in the post-civil rights era, he wouldn’t have said the same thing he did in the pre-civil rights era? Holy Shit!
Seriously, I have no idea what Cameron’s point is in this article. A decade passes and things have changed. Thus, books written about the current state of something a DECADE AGO are no longer accurate in describing the present. I’m shocked.
[PSA: Don’t be a Cameron lemming. 
]
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
i just don't understand
his point about scouts being right all along
no they weren’t?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
what i took away is that dave cameron loves fat people.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
terry gross is rebroadcasting her interview w/ quentin tarantino about inglourious basterds.
really good stuff.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
npr.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
And just what the fuck kind of shit is that shit?
by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
goddamn hippies.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
also
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
I see your secret campaign to introduce culture to VEB
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
DeRosa 2/12 to Giants official. Uribe for 1 yr w/ team option close.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
oh =(
oh well. i like the giants. wish him well
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
goodbye Man Stew of '09
I should correct that this is off a Heyman tweet. so… we know how that goes.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
supplemental pick :-)
should replace Jess Todd at least.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
We are probably lucky he was not a Type A
He might of accepted it
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
dero accepting arb
would have made me a happy panda
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
forgot about the pick
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
hooray picks!
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
if mo
really viewed dero as plan b, does this signing have some sort of cardinal implications"
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
So long DeRo
Why didn’t the Cards go for a 2/12 deal? Now they’ve gotta go after a 3B. Is Freese now our starter, or do we have another plan B?
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
freese was declared first shot at starter
a long time ago
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
so long ago that he was sober
…too soon?
(but my point stands lists)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
if we sign holliday, freese is clearly the starter. it's an open question whether the cards will pony up more money
for a 3b free agent if we miss out on holliday.
basically, the answer to your first question is money. and holliday.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
should give freese a chance
all the free agents, including DeRosa, don’t really project to be much better. If we really feel we need some sort of insurance policy for freese, I’d probably just pay one of the cheaper options, like Joe Crede (who we might get for ~2-3m), although really I think Lugo could do the job acceptably.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
"All We are Saying...."
“…is give Freese a chance…”
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Dec 28, 2009 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i would like just a rumor
of any sort
“matt holliday farted in john mozeliak’s general direction”
anything
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 8:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Someone posted
on MLBTR that the Cards signed Beltre to a 2 year, $17M deal.
“1380 in St Louis is reporting that the St Louis Cardinals have agreed to a 2 year deal worth 17 million with an option for a 3rd year reportedly at 12 million for Beltre.”
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
I doubt it's true
and I doubt the Cards would be willing to pay $8.5M a year for this guy.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
you are so very
nexdef’d
lay off the booze, zz
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
my bad
and for the record, i’m not old enough to drink, but i’m just too lazy to scroll up.
you guys never give me a break either…
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
HFS (r)
i’m not old enough to drink
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
® fail
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
did you want me to lie?
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
just surprised that you're a beh-beh
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
no, mr zoomzoom, i expect you to die.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 29, 2009 7:10 AM EST up reply actions
like they said to Boog, maybe if you worked on your consistency....
I hope to be a journalist someday, and if I get to be a columnist at some point, I will pledge right now that I will never be as bad as Burwell. I will look at some good things that happened over the last 10 years, instead of just the bad. Heck, hire me right now and I’d be better than Burwell ever will be.
by zoomzoomj88 on Dec 26, 2009 12:01 PM CST
well of course you’d be better right now
because I’m sure if you turned in an assignment to your college (or high school, I dunno) english teacher that was as unfocused, meandering, and needlessly verbose as one of Burwell’s articles, he or she would eviscerate it, and rightfully so.
by mattyp on Dec 26, 2009 5:24 PM CST
or VEB
except we say it with gifs
by Yadi2Second on Dec 27, 2009 11:01 AM CST
learn it fast and learn it well — there are no take-backsies with the published word
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
so what are you tryin' to say?
:)
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
we give no one a break here
just feel lucky you haven’t been stabbed yet for these nexdef’d(s)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
You know why I know this is false
Beltre is a Boras client
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
bingo
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
hey oh
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5493731
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Braun would hae probably beat it out if he wouldn't have been weighed down
by having that layered douchey shirt on under his jersey. If you go back and look at that video, you can see the collar is almost popped.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
apparently
my bhe bird shirt is confirmed delivered today according to my tracking number
but no sign of it at my house…
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
oh neat!
my old address is associated with my paypal account!
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
that' not too bad
my hope is that since my old place was an apartment, the package was too big to fit in the mailbox, so they delivered it ti the office
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
but it does accept bacon?
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 29, 2009 7:10 AM EST up reply actions
This is probably bad
But are you talking about my shirts?
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 28, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
i’m sure it’ll work out
worst case scenario, i go knock on the door and say, hey
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 28, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
is that chuckb weighing in on Mo's balls of steel?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/playing-chicken-with-boras
though that parenthetical in the second paragraph has me scratching my head. saluki’ calls out the Al-ism.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Dec 29, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
it just has to be chuckb
and it seems I need to start cecking out THT a little more often. You really can’t get enough of a baseball fix, can you?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 29, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
You don't check THT every hour?
grumble, grumble, grumble
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
hover over his email icon at the bottom of the page to find out.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
I am the blind squirrel
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
chuck seems quite active of late
he’s been posting a lot on fangraphs. Don’t know why he’s given up on VEB, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 29, 2009 7:11 AM EST up reply actions
I loved it when Chuck posted here
but man, he was the recipient of so much vitriol from people who acted like, well…trolls. It seems like the people who always complained the most about chuck’s posts never comment at all anymore.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 29, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, I'm happy
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/12/23/1217604/derosa#27876219
And I have no life :(
If I shaved my legs and grew tits,
would I still fail to understand correlation vs. causation?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Check out the "Chemistry" fanpost also
And control F “Maddux”
by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2009 5:58 AM EST up reply actions
That thread is painful to read.
DartmouthCubsFan has the patience of a saint. I think he should try being a Cardinals fan.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
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