I absolutely love Smoltz, and I’d really like to have him back, but even as a big fan of the guy, I’d have to say (objectively, at least) that Sheets has a ton more upside next year. IF Smoltz is more or less healthy, it’s a stretch at his age to see more than 150IP, whereas Sheets is ten years younger and much better (3.50 career FIP!), and you’d hope his successful surgery would have him back on the right track health-wise (he was actually very durable pre-2006), so I’d say he’s got more chance of topping 150 IP.

Even though Sheets will be a bit more expensive, I think objectively he’s a better option. I’d be surprised if Smoltz signs for less than $5m guaranteed, plus some incentives, whereas (even though he’s apparently gunning for $12m) I don’t think Sheets will end up signing for much more than 8 or 9. Even though Smoltz + Kiko would be a more flexible (and, IMO, very good) non-Holliday option, I think I’d rather have Sheets alone for the same money and risk that the bullpen isn’t too bad. Realistically, with Carp, Waino, Sheets, Penny and Lohse, you’re hoping your bullpen doesn’t have to work too hard anyhow.

Still, I’d be very happy if we got either. Just say NO to mediocrities like Vincente Fucking Padilla.