The NL Central, Quantified – Beta

I use WAR to project the NL Central. Cards favorites w/o Matt Holliday. Thanks, Jim Hendry.

Projected Wins
Cardinals 87.5
Cubs 84.75
Brewers 82.75
Reds 82.25
Astros 79
Pirates 77.25

about 2 years ago erik 13 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

that way overestimates the stros, flubs & reds

and way underestimates the Cardinals. i think it’s a pretty good call on the reds & brew crew though.

like for instance, Luddy only 1+ War & Rapstar ony 2.5+? no way, they’ll be better than that

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 19, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions

I tried to be conservative.

No Homers Club!

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Dec 20, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

ah i totally respect that

by gdm426 on Dec 20, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

Erik, you misplaced a comma up there

unless you really are JIM HENDRY

/ducks
/needs to lay of the memes

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 20, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

I did something similar a little while back

I actually got closer to 90 wins (89 or something, I think) but I was perhaps a bit bullish on the rookies, as I had Craig, Freese and Gracia all adding 1-2 WAR, and maybe didn’t account strongly enough for injury possibilities.

FWIW, my totally rough ballpark estimates for next year’s major players were:
Pujols – 7 WAR
Molina – 3 WAR
Schu/Lugo (2B platoon) – 2 WAR
Boog – 2 WAR
Freese – 1 WAR
Colby – 3 WAR
Luddy – 3 WAR
Craig/LF – 1 WAR

That’s 6 wins above average for the position players.

Carp – 3 WAR (conservative due to chance of injury)
Waino – 4 WAR
Lohse – 2 WAR
Penny – 2 WAR
Garcia/Boggs/whoever – 1 WAR

2 wins above average for the pitchers.

That’s 89, and I feel I’ve been quite conservative. However, I guess it’s not unreasonable to expect the pen to be about 2 wins below average. So yeah, on second thoughts, 87 wins sounds about right.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions

Interesting conclusion...

You seem to conclude that spending on Holliday isn’t needed because our NL Central compatriots all suck, are clueless, etc. (though some, like the Cubs, aren’t all that far behind us).

Holliday would just ensure a full-blown massacre of the division next season…

I would take that exact same information and conclude that it is more important than ever to sign Holliday to ensure said massacre. Indeed, I would argue that the marginal benefit to signing Holliday is greatest at exactly point that his presence will ensure a massacre and his absence puts us into a potential dogfight.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 21, 2009 7:28 PM EST reply actions

well, given that the error bars on any of these estimates are enormous and the gap between us

and the cubs is only 3 games, i would imagine any extra wins we could scrape together with holliday or other acquisitions would be insurance against us underperforming and the cubs overperforming.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 21, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

yes

the nearer you are to being “close to winning the division”, the more valuable every marginal win becomes. Given the estimate that we’ll be in a close fight with the Cubs (and maybe even the Brewers) next year, every win we can add is at an absolute premium.

So, yeah, getting Holliday would be the best way (probably) to give us the highest possible % chance of taking the division. The only possible argument might be if you’re really not high on any of the rookies – Holliday in LF means Freese at 3B and Garcia/Boggs/Hawksworth as 5th starters (and possibly no bullpen help). If you’re really down on Freese, the young pitchers, and our bullpen, you might claim that we can add as much value as Holliday provides (probably a conservative 4-5 wins over our internal options) by improving those slots.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 8:35 AM EST up reply actions

brewcrew lineup looks about right

Supposedly Bush and Soup don’t have guaranteed rotation spots, but that may just be pre Spring training talk to keep them motivated. Possible substitutes are none other than Narveson and Mulder.

by ol Pete on Dec 23, 2009 8:24 PM EST reply actions

you had them signing another FA pitcher a couple of weeks ago

is that now not on the cards?

FWIW, I think this projection under-estimates Corey Hart and perhaps slightly over-estimates the non-Hoffman parts of your bullpen.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 28, 2009 5:17 AM EST up reply actions

They could sign another guy

Besides the quality and price of whoever is available, I’d think part of it depends on how Mulder looked and what Peterson thinks. Melvin seems to like the late off-season bargain shopping and has mentioned waiting to see what’s available. Personally, I wish they would have non-tendered Bush and taken his money and signed Sheets. I’d guess he’d sign for 9 or 10, so in essence they’d be upgrading for about 5.

I think Hart gets unfairly dissed, but both he and Weeks are kind of wildcards to me. The bullpen looks really good to me. I think they were one of the best in baseball till miid-season when the starting rotation exploded. Hawkins replaces McClung’s spot and a couple guys in the minors have developed so they could fill in next season at some point.

by ol Pete on Dec 28, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

The Cubs haven’t signed Byrd yet, have they? I mean there is still a chance the Cubs sign Posednik instead, right?

by clack on Dec 23, 2009 10:28 PM EST reply actions

My NL Central WAR Worksheet

2010 NL Central WAR

I have the Cardinals (w/o Holliday) with a similar WAR as yours, but I have the other five teams significantly lower than you do. The NL Central is not quite that good! :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Dec 24, 2009 2:56 AM EST reply actions