At what point do we look at other options.
by callmesir on Dec 17, 2009 11:38 AM EST
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PrintWarning: This post is another Matt Holliday opinion.
I'm convinced, and so are many people that boras will have Holliday as the last big name on the market. He'll be able to use Bay's contract as a springboard, and he'll be able to convince teams not currently in the bidding that Holliday is the last chance you have to drastically impact your lineup.
Where is the point that Moz says we're done? We can't play the waiting game and watch all the plan b's get signed. I just have so little faith that this deal will get done that I've decided to piece together some alternatives. I think it's fairly safe to assume that if we don't land Holliday we won't go into the season with Freese and Craig. I think it's also pretty safe to assume we'll go after 2 tier 2 players. My favorite option in Chone figgins, is unfortunately gone, but there are still lots of other options.
Adrian Beltre and Vladimir Guerrero
Beltre WAR last year was 2.4 WAR, the majority of it was with his glove but his bat is still an improvement over the crap we trotted out to Third Base last year. I think it'd be reasonable for him to match his 2008 OPS + of 108. I expect him to sign for 9 to 10 mil. Many of you would like Beltre but not Guerrero. I presume he's looking for more than the six mil the Angels gave Matsui. Otherwise the Angels would have retained his services. We're all aware that he can't play the field, but could he be any worse than Chris Duncan? We know he can still crush the ball, and the best part of it, is that he'd probably come on a 1 year contract. With so much money invested in the rotation we might be looking at more 1 year contracts for aging vets than we may like. They would cost somewhere in the 18-20 mil range, about what we're looking at paying Holliday.
Mark Derosa and Xavier Nady.
Assuming we add two players, this is actually the most likely route. and Fits the Cardinals M.O. of Paying hurt vets in hopes they have a bounce back season. Derosa Was just under league average with his glove at Third last year and profiles offensively similar to Beltre (unless you count his one ridiculous year.) We are familiar with him, and you can never discount Tony's love for a guy that plays all over the field. He'll likely sign for 5-7 mil. Nady had a pretty good offensive season and will likely sign cheaply due to his inury. He'd still be an upgrade over the first 3 months of LF. Total cost about 12-16 mil.
David Freese And Rick Ankiel/Allen Craig Platoon. John Smoltz.
This would probably be the least pleasing scenario as it's obviously the cheap way out. But still a possibility. I don't even want to comment about the offensive "potential" of this group and will instead focus on Smoltz. Smoltz is valuable for a few reasons. I think he wants to start. So, we tell him we'll give you an opportunity to do so because we have a hole to fill, but we need you at the back end of the bullpen, if you don't pitch well out of the rotation you're moving to the bullpen to take Russ Springer's role. If he pitches well, great, we'll probably have a fantastic rotation. Even as it stands I'm not too comfortable with our internal options. Garcia is coming off surgery and Boggs hasn't shown the ability to get outs on a consistent basis. We're going to have injuries to this rotation. We need depth. Cost: Fan hatred
Adrian Beltre and Coco Crisp
I wanted to add a more defensive minded duo. Beltre led the league with an UZR/150 of 21 and Coco Crisp has a career UZR/150 of 23.5 in LF while still posting an UZR/150 of nearly 20 last year. Beltre Becomes Troy Glaus, a number 5 hitter hitting cleanup. Crisp slots as our leadoff guy and gives us two guys hitting in front of Pujols that are likely to have an OBP of .340~.350. Not to mention he fits the mold of the injured vet coming to us on the cheap. Total cost: 14~18 mil.
Obviously nothing is set in stone, and this is only meant to be a few ideas on other options in case Holliday signs elswhere. So Don't get too Wrapped up in the whole "you're an idiot, that would never happen because blah blah blah.... You don't even have to discuss my options, I'm just curious What our trigger will be to get out of the Holliday dealings, and look at other options, and what those options might be.
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to put the pressure on. If Beltre and Guerrerro weren’t worth $9 million (Figgins) and $6 million (Matsui) per year to the Mariners and Angels, respectively, perhaps the Cardinals won’t have to pay a 20- to 33-percent premium ($18 million to $20 million) to get them. I’d love to have Beltre and Guerrero — for two years max each — if what Figgins and Matsui are getting paid are market indicators. I’d even be willing to load the contracts with incentives. If Holliday is who the Cardinals really want and the best threat Boras can muster is the Orioles, then it would seem we’re in good position in the Holliday sweepstakes. If we start making noise that we’re going to spend the same money or less to fill more holes, then I think Boras has to deal if there really are no other suitors out there.
Just throwing this out there
I’m not too enthusiastic about the free agents that are available this year. I see a much better crop next year.
I’m at work now and don’t have time to flip through some metrics of these players but here’s a rough scenario.
Jermaine Dye on a one year deal to play left (yes I know he fell off the earth in the 2nd half and his defense is pretty rough). Miguel Tejada on a one or two year deal. Then lets also see what’s available for the bullpen.
These 2 or 3 players would cost less than Holiday. Thing is, this saved money HAS to be spent next year to make up for it. I like Carl Crawford much more than I like Holiday. Perhaps Jason Werth would work well in left. What if Aramis Ramirez decides to opt-out?
I’m just on the side of, next years crop looks better so I’d be satisfied with one year productive replacements.
Carl crawford is someone I'd love to see in a Cardinal uniform.
He’d have a ton of suitors but I like the one year strategy, and Tejada is another guy I mulled over when thinking about short term deals.
If I could assure that were were players for Crawford next year, I’d let Holliday walk now.
Why?
I like Carl Crawford much more than I like Holiday
Holliday is the better player by nearly every offensive metric, and has been his entire career.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Well, one reason. . .
is the difference in age (1 year, give or take) and body type. Because of his body type, Holliday is more likely to age quicker (unsupported theory, that one, but Holliday is pretty bulky), and yes, I realize that Crawford’s game (legs, speed) is of a type that ages worse than Holliday’s game, body types be damned.
Also, if you look at their performance curves, Holliday looks like he is in decline (hopefully a gradual one), while Crawford doesn’t yet look to be in decline. I also think (again, unsupported) that Crawford’s D is more likely to be an asset longer than Holliday’s D.
All of that being said, I sign Holliday to the 5/8 year deal at the prices reported and pray.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Dec 18, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
in what way is Holliday in decline?
his offensive stats have slightly reduced from 2007, but that was a pretty big career year supported by a .380 (.380!) BABIP, which is totally unsustainable. He’s walking at a higher rate now than he did then, striking out less, and he had a tough year in terms of BABIP and HR/FB, but, realistically, that’s going to happen when you move out of Colorado into Oakland and St Louis.
I suppose you could argue that, in the very literal meaning of the term, Holliday has “declined” in the last 3 years, but I’d say that was from an unsustainable career high (2007) to pretty much a true talent level (he was more or less equally valuable in 08 and 09). I still think he’s a 6-win talent for the next couple of years.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
He's definitely not a 6 win talent
Even if he hasn’t declined, you have to factor in regression. There are maybe 3-4 hitters in baseball who you could reasonable project for 6 wins – Holliday isn’t one of them .
by vivaelpujols on Dec 18, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
well, 5 wins then
and he might be a 6 win talent for the next couple of years, you can’t say “definitely”. He’s averaged more than that for the last 3 years quite comfortably. I realise regression has to be taken into account but I’d say he’s not far off as a solid projection. Let’s split the difference at about 5.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I am not quite as saber nerdy as I want to be
but when regression is taken into account in projections, is the opposite true as well? I mean is there a statistical progression that is taken into account?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 19, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Regression works both ways-
thus, Milton Bradley and Matt Holliday are likely to regress, but for one of them that means moving up from 1 WAR and for the other that means moving down toward 5 WAR.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I should have known that regression had its own statistical definition
this does actually make sense, thanks
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
yah
“regression to the mean” being the full term, I think – i.e. if any player has an awesome or terrible season they’re likely to next year to move in the direction of their own mean talent level (I say “their” mean because obviously for some players you’re not really regressing to the mean MLB hitter’s line – for instance, if Albert puts up a 5-win season, he’s going to be “regressed” in the upwards direction next year in terms of his projection, despite that obviously being greater than the average player’s production).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
can vlad be worse than chris duncan?
answer: yes, he can, by a lot: with uzr/150’s ranging from -13 to -17 over 2006, 2007, and 2008. there was a reason he was a dh all year.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Part of the reason he was a DH all year
was a lack of health… Chris duncan was -21 uzr/150 and -10 the year before, He played more innings in 09 but for the sake of simplicity we’ll average it to -15 which is about what vlad has been….. plus he has that huge arm…. not really as useful in LF, but hey… I like it, so I’m going to bring it into a conversation for no apparent reason….
i believe chris duncan was injured too. his average UZR in LF over his short career was -107, in the OF generally -10.3.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
* -10.7
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
If you're going to go career....
Then Guerrero has been -6.1….. We agree that they both suck, even moreso when they’re injured… I just don’t think it would be a huge problem if it’s a one year deal, especially if one of our young guys can step up and be a 4th outfielder when can rely on.
my concern would be more about his bat
his swing-at-everything style is the sort that drops off a cliff quite quickly when eye/bat-speed starts to degrade, and in (an admittedly slightly injury hit) year last season, his BB% nearly halved and his wOBA fell from “really rather good” to “a little above average”. At least with Adam Dunn, you know you’re getting a premium bat. I’m not necessarily sure you are any more with Vlad.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 5:21 AM EST up reply actions
I think we'd
end up paying much less for Vlad, and he might be had for a one year deal, allowing us to get into the Crawford sweepstakes next year. I agree that guys like him drop off quickly but As we saw in with his playoff performance last year, he still has the ability to hit, even if it was a small sample size, it’s hard to put too much into last year with as much as he was hurt.
maybe, but I'm still slightly frightened of the fact that his style of hitting can disintegrate pretty quickly
I must admit, the thought of signing Guerrero (a genuine “star” in my eyes) is quite exciting from a fan point of view, but I just think the question marks over what he’s actually likely to do on the field are too large. A guy who never walks and who can’t field a lick is really going to have to hit the shit out of the ball to be worthwhile in LF for us. I just wonder if getting a lefty to partner Craig and then spending the rest of the cash on 3B (maybe even 2B, given the number of talented options on the FA market) wouldn’t be a better move.
If we’re going for a big slugger who can be a legit #4 hitter behind Albert, defense be damned, then my preference would be Cust – he’ll likely be a fair bit cheaper than Vlad, has a better recent history of health, and hits the crap out of righties. Of course, he’s probably even worse in the field, so maybe that’s a bad idea too.
I just think if we want a legitimate bat in our lineup without totally sacrificing defense, Holliday’s really the only option. If getting someone to hit behind Albert is that important, I think we’re gonna have to pay for it.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Cust's only advantage over
Vlad is that he’s lefty… he’s a hacker that will hit 25 jacks while hitting .230…. he walks just a tad more… but He’d also be a good one and done guy. I could easily see him signing for 1 yr and 4 mil.
...
he walks just a tad more
Just a little bit of an understatement there.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 18, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't mind 1yr/$4m for Cust at all
he’ll probably be worth north of 1 win as an occasional LF starter, 1B starter once every three weeks or so, and PH. If he somehow is able to be better than appalling in LF (unlikely), and is able to play 3-4 times a week, there’s some upside there, too.
I still think he’ll get a bit more than that, and his preference is likely to be to sign for an AL team (Orioles would make sense at that price), where he’s likely to get 500-odd PAs instead of the 300-odd he’d get in St Louis.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
additionally
I prefer Branyan as a 3TO slugger option, due to the fact he can probably play 3B a bit and not be completely embarassing at it. However, I do expect he’ll get a bit more than Cust will. I wouldn’t say no to something like 2/12 if we can’t get Holliday, though.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 6:16 AM EST up reply actions
Based on this news story...
I’d say the answer is “soon”.
Actually, I think Derosa just did the Cardinals a huge favor. Rather than putting pressure on Mozeliak, this forces Boras to back away from perhaps his high-end offer and get Holliday to accept something closer to St. Louis’s bid.
MH will probably get his money ($16M). But if he keeps playing hardball, he might not enjoy where he’s playing much…
I HATE
Scott Boras. I also like MOZ a lot. Hopefully Plan B won’t be too late becuase Plan A doesn’t seem to be working out.
I’m pissed beyond belief that Holliday has been offered a fair market contract and is piddling around with a couple mil or a year or two waiting for some other team…. I’m almost ready to tell him to screw off.
What, you mean like every other top-end free agent ever has done?
it’s the middle of December. I don’t blame him for hanging around on the market if there’s a team he’d rather play for than the Cardinals. It’s not like he’s got links to the city, area or team. The guy is just looking for the best move possible.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 5:23 AM EST up reply actions
If it was happening to another team...
I guess I wouldn’t care… and not having that much money I look and say… what the hell is the difference between 80 mil and 84 mil. Just sign, and don’t screw us over. I just feel like we’re being used to establish a baseline for some other team…. it sucks…
Actually, as far as ML teams go.....
He does have links to the city, in much the same way Penny does. That link is that it’s one of the closest MLB cities/teams to where “home” is. He is an Oklahoma boy. OK boys typically grow up as Cardinal fans. Not sure if Matt’s parents are still in OK or not, but that was home for him.
Matt Holliday. Nuff said.
pretty tenuous
he’s not a lifelong Cards fan (e.g. Buehrle) and doesn’t have any family in St Louis, to the best of my knowledge. What I mean is, there’s nothing concrete tying him to this part of the world, really, that should make him take a discount.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I've always
kinda wondered about that whole wanting to play close to home kinda thing. But its basically bullshit unless you grew up driving distance from a stadium (i.e <50 miles or so). You can’t simply get in the car and drive home to Oklahoma after a game at Busch Stadium. It would require a flight. And when you make 15million a year, the difference between paying for a first class plane ticket from STL to OK or NY to OK is nothing. So I don’t buy the whole “wanting to play close to home” thing. He can walk into JFK airport, buy a first class ticket on the first flight out and be home in OK in less time it would take him to drive there from STL>
family = can watch him play close to home
ask Ryan Howard, who has been using Busch as his home stadium for years
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that said, I don't buy the Oklahoma thing
he was right at home in L.A. dating Alyssa Milano
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What would you do?
Would you settle for 5Y$80M (not fair market value, btw) when your agent thinks that you could get, and others have gotten before, an 8Y$180M contract? You’d just leave $100M sitting on the table? Are you nuts?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Do you really think
that Boras believes he can get an 8/180 deal for Holliday? I doubt it. He just wants to drive up the price as any agent should do. Also, there is no $100M offer sitting on the table that we know of. Fair market value means what is available on the open market, which right now looks to be about 5/80. This may go up a few million, but just sitting around hoping that the Yankees decide they need Holliday all of a sudden (and want to pay above market value for no reason) won’t do Holliday any good if it means the Cardinals back away. Boras should let the Yankees and other teams know that Holliday is going to sign soon and if they want in, they need to make an offer. Otherwise, he just risks the chance that the Cards will pull out and Holliday will be stuck with a lesser deal.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 18, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
if bay ends up signing for more than holliday in any way
borass is toast as an agent, at least in the near term, so
borass has too wait (holliday doesn’t, but borass would want to)
damon’s situation doesn’t look like it will help either
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
"borass"
is about as clever and fresh as “dewallet”
actually, it’s less. i’d rather keep it on the p-d boards
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 22, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
If I was
in his position… I absoloutely understand holding out for every penny. You never know when you’re playing career is over… yada yada yada… I’m not saying I hate boras and am getting irritatted with Holiday based on anything but some deep rooted desire not to see the cards get bent over…
Mid-February
That’s when Bobby Abreu signed with LAA last winter for 5M/1yr. Personally, I believe there will be a Jermaine Dye/Miguel Tejada-type player available later this winter. I don’t see that much difference between the best and worst of the mid-thirties vets (imo, Beltre, DeRosa, Vlad, Dye, Tejada would all add the same relative punch to our team for 2010), and therefore, I’m more inclined to wait out the Holliday thing, and if by the end of January, he still is playing hardball, or, worst case, we lose the Holliday-White-Elephant-Exchange, then we see who’s still there, give them the Abreu/Lohse-one-year-version type deal, and let Craig/Freese compete with them for PT.
This would allow us to save the bullets for mid-season acquisition/salary-dump, as well as enter next winter with some cash (Crawford/Werth would both be high on my list, and others too, I’m sure.)
Stupid Sexy Flanders!!!
by timmycardinals on Dec 18, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions
I tend to agree
that if Holliday doesn’t sign, we’re as well waiting it out and see how the pieces fall. Of course, the danger is that ALL the good FAs will be gone by then, but I tend to agree that with $20m to spend, if we wait until Jan/Feb, we might be able to add a decent OF bat, maybe one of the many 2Bs without a home (perhaps to play 3B or do a bit of platooning around the park) and probably a decent arm with that cash. It’s quite an intirguing prospect.
Also, the longer we wait it out, the more of the other LF options will be signed. If Bay ends up on one or other side of NY (as I expect he may well do now), Holliday’s starting to run out of other options. I still think he ends up a Yankee but stranger things have happened…
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 18, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
mo needs to start floating some rumors
call bay’s agent, call vlad’s agent. something to get boras a little uncomfortable. beltre doesn’t make much sense as plan b, though. is mo supposed to threaten, “hey, boras, here’s our offer either take it or we’re signing beltre”?
i think boras would be able to call that bluff
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
they kind of did that with the two DeRo articles late this week
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
derosa doesn't scare anyone
he’s not at all comparable to Holliday.
A formal, reasonable offer (2Y/18M?) to Damon would scare the shit out of H, though. Might be the catalyst to make something happen.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I don't think it'd scare him at all...
IT would mean that boras could start selling Holliday to the Yankess…. and he’d get a contract for Damon… might work if he weren’t the agen for both of them…
I wouldn't want to offer Damon that much
I wonder if that’s more than the yankees are comfortable with. I’d be happy to go one year, though, as I don’t think Damon would want to sign for that unless there’s no other alternative.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
why not? damon's a 2-win player, possibly a 3-win player, which makes 2y/$18m pretty fair.
i think it’s a neat idea. damon isn’t my ideal player either, but we’ve got to give holliday a little sense of urgency about his negotiations.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Because Allen Craig plus Eric Hinske is a 2-win player, possibly a 3-win player
and will cost us $3m. Change Hinske for Gross or Church and there’s still a likelihood it’ll be above average, and for close to the league minimum.
I think there’s very little point paying significant money to “upgrade” either 3B or LF to slightly-above average, when slightly-above-average options are available at both spots very cheaply. I’d rather spend the cash we have on high-upside options, and/or easier spots to upgrade (FWIW it’s probably easier to significantly upgrade 2B or the 5th starter option from the FA market).
I agree that it’s worth trying to put a bit of pressure on Holliday, but I really wouldn’t be very keen on the idea of Damon signing for that sort of cash. It’s not the worst thing in the world, but I think it’s sub-optimal, to say the least.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 6:22 AM EST up reply actions
FM--who are you talking about?
FWIW it’s probably easier to significantly upgrade 2B.
And would our new LF platoon be Skip/Craig?
Given Polanco signed for $6m AAV
and there’s a few 2-3 win guys available on the cheap, plus the fact Shumaker/Lugo is probably a real stretch to be league average (and really don’t have much chance at all IMO of being more than 3 wins combined at 2B).
You’ve got Felipe Lopez, who was a 4.6 win guy last year and has a good shot at being a 3+ win guy this year with a full-time job. Orlando Hudson was a 3-win guy last year. On the “impact bats who don’t defend too well” spectrum, Dan Uggla is available for trade (presumably for relatively little), and Kelly Johnson is a free agent. None of these guys would cost much, and they’re all upgrades at 2B.
I suppose you could argue whether any of these guys are as big upgrades at 2B as (say) Beltre would be at 3B, but really, there aren’t a lot of major upgrades at LF or 3B either, and for some reason no-one’s talking about second base.
We could sign Lopez now for less than half of what he’s worth and immediately significantly upgrade 2B (with a chance of being useful at 3B). I’m not sure there’s a 3B on the market who is very likely to significantly upgrade over Freese, likewise, I’m not sure there’s a huge upgrade at LF out there over what would be a very cheap Craig/Schu/Hinske/Church/Gross platoon in LF.
Personally, I don’t think any of the 2B options are that great either, but they’re worth consideration; we have internal options that will profile to be slightly below-average at 3B, 2B and LF next year, and (Holliday excepted) there’s no free agent at ANY of those positions that is likely to be a huge upgrade (more than 1-2 wins). I think that was basically my point.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
i could get down with a floppy signing if it's not too expensive. put him and schumaker and freese
in a rotation on 2b and 3b duty. see if we can shop lugo somewhere.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Yeah, I think it makes more sense the more I think of it
In the event of a Holliday no-sign, I’d platoon Cust (who murders RHP) in LF in platoon with Craig (obv. Cust gets a late inning defensive sub when necessary, as he’s a butcher in the field; however, CHONE reckons he’s going to be 21 runs above average with the bat, and he OBPs .380 against right-handed pitching, with serious power), and use floppy as 3B/2B utility guy and see if we could get something for Lugo (who then becomes basically redundant). Floppy bats lefty at 3B vs RHP (he’s above average at this) and bats righty at 2B vs LHP (he’s about average at this).
Can’t see that costing much more than $10m in total. I’d do my best to sign Sheets with the rest of the cash, otherwise, it’s Smoltz (yay!) and (maybe) a dirt cheap righty-specialist for the pen (Springer? Calero?).
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:04 AM EST up reply actions
i think he makes sense at 2b and 3b; say, floppy at 2nd v. LHP, with freese at 3rd.
skippy at 2b v. RHP, with floppy at 3b. floppy has about 100 innings in the OF. I don’t think he’s really an OF.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
yeah, exactly
my only concern with this is it’s slightly redundant, as Lugo is doing the job at 2B vs LHP and probably figures to be broadly equivalent in that role. My problem with that is that it frees up Julio as trade bait, but I’m not convinced we’ll get much back for him, as there’s a few 2Bs on the market anyway, including guys like Johnson, who is surely much better than Lugo.
My preference would be to find a way to get Russell Branyan on board, if we’re looking for a lefty platoon partner for Freese.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 23, 2009 5:36 AM EST up reply actions
I just have the hardest time dealing with a guy that whiffs that much..
might as well just resign ankiel to be in a platoon with craig….
branyan takes a walk now and again
he’s much better at getting on base than ankiel, and jacks a lot more dongs.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 23, 2009 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
Hiyo!
My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier
i guess it's fair
but it’s not very economical given the alternatives and his likelihood to regress
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 21, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
i think it does because they are saying he's plan B & he's more anxious to sign right now
Lego’s just looking to get paid, while DeRo’s looking more for a team he can settle into for the next few seasons. if i were MO, i’d be putting out more hits they are moving onto DeRo because Lego’s blowing them off
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Mo doesn't float rumors
we float rumors
ergo, we need to float some rumors.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 20, 2009 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
My sources say Damon comes to town Monday for a physical
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i'm gonna burn your ass
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
in a way (at least sabermetrically speaking)
Beltre makes more sense as a plan B than either Bay or Vlad do, because Vlad is probably worse than our internal option (Craig) and Bay isn’t a big upgrade over Craig or what we could get cheaper on the FA market, whereas Beltre’s probably a 2-win upgrade over whatever we could muster internally at 3B.
I was thinking about this yesterday, and there really isn’t a legit option other than Holliday if we want to add a highly productive hitter. Part of the problem of Ludwick having such a poor 2009, I guess; if we want a top hitter in front of or behind Albert next year, we really have to get them externally, and with 1B occupied and no DH slot, Holliday’s really the only man that fits the bill. In many ways I think we need him more than he needs us (unless we think that going all-defense and adding, say, Ben MOTHERHUSHYOURMOUTH Sheets is a viable alternative), which is a slightly worrying state to be in.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
going by the CHONE projections, here are the only free agents projected to be worth 10 runs or more above average with the bat next year:
(arbitrary cut-off to remove guys projected in the ballpark of league-average):
Holliday (+27)
Bay (22, but I don’t think anyone wants Bay for $15m per year when Holliday is far, far superior)
Branyan (+13; injury-prone 1B/3B/LF who probably can’t really play any position but 1B)
Cust (+21, pretty good, but he’s a DH who is Dunn-like in LF, probably a better option than
Dunn, though; I could actually get behind a Cust/Craig platoon if he’s <$5m)
Vlad (surprisingly, +12 despite a horrible 2009. I guess a post-injury rebound is likely. However, he’s a DH, might be nearly as bad as Cust in the field, and will cost upwards of $8m I’d have thought, although the lack of teams needing a DH might depress his value)
Shelley Duncan (??? +13, although a pretty ambitious Yankee-stadium-aided power total (22 dongs in 380-odd PA), and it seems an ambitious projection based on AAA numbers, given that he’s so far been slightly below-average as a hitter in his MLB career)
That’s literally it. Damon, Glaus and Dye just missed the cut, but I don’t really think any of those guys (except maybe a cheap Damon) would be a viable #2 or #4 hitter for us.
I’m seriously leaning towards seeing if Cust would accept a job as a part-time LF/1B/PH if Holliday is New York bound, and targetting another pitcher or two plus maybe someone like Eric Hinske (projection: +4 runs, also a competent LF who can play 3B in an emergency), Cust made $2.8m as a pre-free-agency arby guy last year (although he avoided arby), and was cut by Oakland, so is an unattached free agent (I believe); most comments I’ve seen seem to think he might sign for about $5m or so. Otherwise it’ll be Luddy at #4 again and god-knows-who batting at #2.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
beltre is a boras agent
i’m talking about trying to bluff boras into letting holliday sign
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 20, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
sorry, but those poll options suck
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
that is a characteristic that they substantially share with YOUR MOM.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
oh burn
i am so butthurt i had to stand up to type this
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
i mean
if you’re looking for an arbitrary date, i would say the first of the year. might be smart to say christmas, though
but really, when all our plan Bs start dropping
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Get out now and go after Bay
Give him a contract of 5 years, $80-90M. So what if we have to give up picks – we don’t have much talent in the minors left and I’d like to get the LF spot covered so we can concentrate on 3rd.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
hell no
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
we'd be lucky if bay could even make it through a game in the OF in five years.
bay might be worth 16 wins over five years – i think that’s optimistic. but that would still mean we’d be overpaying him by $20M or so. bay seems like he’ll be a DH by 2014.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
so what?
we don’t have any internal options at DH. I think that’s a perfect fit for us.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 6:23 AM EST up reply actions
There is no comparable player available on the market
and, unless you are willing to drain the farm system in its entirety, there simply isn’t an alternative to Holliday. The Cardinals need to hope that Holliday simply doesn’t have any alternative suitors (read: Yankees) and that the match becomes one of necessity as much as convenience.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yeah
What he said.
If we don’t sign Holliday for whatever reason I think I’d rather take some of that money and roll the dice on Aroldis Chapman… while signing a cheaper platoon option in LF.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 21, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
If we don't get Holliday
I would push very hard for some of the money to be put into signing some high-upside draft picks. My worry would be that with 2 potential first-rounders, 3 supplemental picks and a 2nd rounder, we’ve got 6 possible picks in the top 60 or so. That’s potentially a lot of signing bonuses, and I worry that the Cards go cheap and go under slot for a few of these. Given the weakness of the farm system, I’d push strongly for a draft similar to 2009, where we gave a lot of guys slightly over-slot money. It’d potentially be an expensive draft, but I’d rather spend $5-10m on that than go cheap on the draft and get Xavier Nady or something.
I agree about the platoon in LF. It’s simply the best value way to get above-average production out of that spot if Holliday doesn’t sign. None of the other options (now Cameron is off the table) appeal as much.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Too many high end picks?
Do picks awarded thru FA defections (Pineiro, DeRosa, Holliday) also roll over to teh next year if we fail to sign those pics?
If so, I hope the Cards eschew going for 6 medium-level (but signable) players/picks and instead go for high end players that may demand more than the Cards’ budget. If the Cards only have the cash to sign 3, they can let the others walk and defer the unsigned picks to 2011 (when presumably they won’t be getting bonus picks).
I was curious
so i did a little more analysis on how long we could wait
by stevesommer05 on Dec 24, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
nice
the Cards are essentially betting that no other team 1. can meet his demands, 2. need him.
balls of steel, Mo!!
besides, if we wait him out and then he signs elsewhere, the fanbase at least will be appeased that he couldn’t have wanted to play for us that badly in the first place.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i think
1 war is probably too conservative for craig and garcia if they can get full time jobs
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 27, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I tend to agree
but I don’t think it’s a bad estimate. IMO, I expect they’ll either bomb out totally and end up back in AAA or they’ll be about average. If you assume the odds of the two are fairly equal, 1 WAR doesn’t seem an unreasonable estimate.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 27, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
I won't really argue that
I’d say that those and the probability assumptions are fairly conservative, but still within the realm of reasonable. If you think it’s higher then it pushes the lines up and the break even point to the right some.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 27, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
well
boras seems content to play this out in manny ramirez fashion. i’m not really willing to go much beyond january not know who the LF of ’10 is
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 21, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
If the Cardinals are content with Allen Craig as their fall back option
(and there’s really not much else out there besides Bay that represents more than 1 win over Craig) then they know who their LF is. Not to mention they’ve got an interesting bounce back guy in Joe Mather and there will always be some 1-2 WAR scrub they can pluck off the market late. It’s either Holliday or no big name player, imo.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Why not Adrian Beltré?
He’d probably play for a medium-term contract, and fills a hole, where, as you stated, there is more of a depth problem than there is in LF.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
he's also a boras client
and i guess that’s a good point, azru. we know who the LF is, but we’re probably still going to try and acquire a derosa-type bat. at the very leat a hinske/giles/johnson type of bat to platoon with craig. if we wait too long, even those types will be gone. and who knows if the royals are willing to deal ddj or if the cardinals’ fo even considers him a possibility.
really, i’m just growing weary of the game and don’t want to end up paying holliday $20MM. also find it unlikely he signs for less than that before march or so
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 21, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I would rather have Felipe Lopez than DeRosa
to my mind he’s a better fit. I am not convinced DeRo can play 3B or 2B respectably any more.
And as for the platoon options in LF, it’s such a good idea for us simply because there’s such a glut of them.
Hinske (above-average glove, slightly above-average bat vs RHP)
Gross (barely average bat vs RHP, but a great glove in LF)
Johnson (above-average bat, though not with a major platoon split, probably average or better glove in LF)
Church (above-average hitter of RHP, decent glove)
I don’t think any of those guys cost more than $3m, and there’s hardly massive demand for them at the moment. That’s before we even consider possible trades (DeJesus), the chance that Mark Hamilton might be able to stick there, or the possibility of picking up a Hudson, Lopez or Johnson on the cheap to play 2B full-time and to move Schu back to LF as a platoon partner for Craig.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Still, it's not like Holliday is the ONLY option as long as Beltré is still around
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
If we don't get Holliday
We could get Sheets, Smoltz and Hudson for the same price.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
the same? hell shouldn't they be less for one year deala?
$6 for Smoltz & ODog & $1+ incentives for Sheets. that’s around $13-$15 for those three. offer on the table is north of $16 for Lego right?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Sheet's want's 12 million
But we could probably get him for 5.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
who's going to give him $5Million?
that’s an awful lot of money for someone who may not be 100% yet
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
key word there is IF
and it’s a biggie
and i think you all know how i feel about him
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I would be ASTONISHED if sheets doesn't get $5m
I think he’ll end up settling for about 8. But seriously, if he’s available for 5, we should forget about all other options and make him our #1 signing priority right now. If he’s healthy, the guy is a 4-5 win pitcher, and he’s had elbow surgery, which I think has a good rehab rate and there’s a good chance he’s ready by opening day (or not long after).
If there’s any way we could get Smoltz, Sheets and Hudson for $16m I’d be all over that. Add in a lefty bat to platoon in LF and we’re looking very good indeed.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:08 AM EST up reply actions
i doubt he'll get as much as harden/penny
i think he’ll go for 5-6
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
I agree....
although… I think with the suspension of Freese, that it’s inevitable we’ll be signing derosa… or at least someone that can play 3rd base….. but I’d be stoked about sheets smoltz and hudson…. especially considering they’d all come on short contracts and we’d possibly be players in the carl crawford sweepstakes the next year.
suspension of Freese
did I miss something?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
there's rumours DeRo will be in NY
personally, I’m feeling pretty good about DeRosa not being back. A lot of teams seem to want him and I’ve not heard anything much about us being interested. Until Holliday signs somewhere, I doubt we sign anyone, tbh.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
The risk associated with those players is
significantly higher than Holliday. It’s also a much bigger question as to whether the Cardinals could acquire 3 targets versus 1. I don’t think this is the comparable situation you are making it out to be and the WAR benefits on paper are arguable as well.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
So, I guess Smoltz and sheets are out of the 'pen and Hudson is our #5 starter?
Or are we getting Sheets as Penny insurance in this scenario?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Hudson = Orlando
And one of Sheet’s and Smoltz are sure to get injured, making it good to have both.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think boston is a good example
of why depth is important… and it just so happens we have one of their underperformers and may or may not be still in the hunt for Smoltz, between carp penny smoltz and sheets, we’d need extra arms. We’d be lucky to get 20 starts apiece out of those guys.
+5 million
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Ah, yes
which would make sense, considering that Tim Hudson is, in fact, not a free agent.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
i heard kate hudson's a free agent these days.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
The Hudson river's shopping for a new team, too, I hear
but I hear that there’s significant injury history, with implications of chemical abuse there…
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
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