Ryan Ludwick v.2010: Studwick or Dudwick?
by thepainguy on Dec 17, 2009 6:51 PM EST
134 comments
Ryan Ludwick had a career year in 2008, with a .299 BA, a .966 OPS, and a well-deserved invite to the All Star Game. However, and as many people feared, he then seemed to regress to the mean in 2009 with a .265 BA and a .775 OPS. I'm not going to address to concept of regression to the mean, because that has been covered well in other places. Instead, I'm interested in answering two more fundamental questions about Ryan Ludwick in this analysis of his swing and hitting mechanics. First, why isn't Ryan Ludwick a better, more consistent hitter. Second, what's Ryan Ludwick likely to do in 2010?
Where's the Rub?
In general, there are two ways that hitters can fail. First, they can have a mechanical problem that makes their swing a bit too long or makes it hard for them to square up the ball consistently. Second, they can have a problem with their approach, which can lead them to swing at pitcher's pitches that keep them from using optimal mechanics.[1]
What a Good Swing Looks Like
Before I get into an analysis of the swing and hitting mechanics of Ryan Ludwick, let me remind you what a good swing looks like using The Mang (aka Albert Pujols) as an example. Some of the things to notice about Albert Pujols' swing are how quiet, short, and compact it is and how stable his head is. Also, the fact that he is making the Power L in both his back arm and back knee at the Point Of Contact (POC) is an indication of a very efficient swing that is driven by the large muscle of the core and not the much smaller muscles of the hands, wrists, and arms.
The problem is that Ryan Ludwick's swing is significantly different than Albert Pujols' swing.
Tension
When I look at Ryan Ludwick's pre-swing routine, and in particular when I compare and contrast it to that of Albert Pujols, the word "frenetic" is the one that pops into my head. Ryan Ludwick doesn't look comfortable at the plate. Rather he looks like he's going to crawl out of his skin.
Charley Lau Sr. talked a lot about the problem of tension in a swing, and I think Ryan Ludwick is an example of tension in action. While an active pre-swing routine can work for some players, if I were working with Ryan Ludwick the first thing I would do is try to quiet him up at the plate. At a minimum that might make him more consistent and less vulnerable to being quick pitched.
Too Much Tilt
No good hitter actually swings so that the bat is level to the ground at the Point Of Contact. Instead, they tilt over the plate such that, in most cases, the head of the bat will be slightly to significantly lower than their hands at the POC. However, Ryan Ludwick seems to take this to an extreme. As he gets into foot plant, he leans well over the plate and sticks his butt out. You will occasionally see this in good hitters if they accidentally chase a curveball, but Ryan Ludwick seems to do this in pretty much every swing.
If you compare the clip above of Ryan Ludwick with the first clip of Albert Pujols, you will see that while Albert's torso does tilt over the plate, Albert adjusts his tilt both sooner and less dramatically.[2]
Weight Transfer Issues
Ryan Ludwick's excessive tilt may also help to explain some of his weight transfer issues. While Albert Pujols' back foot gets up on the toe, if not completely up in the air, at the POC, Ryan Ludwick's back leg and back foot behave quite differently. That is an indication that his hip rotation is at least different than Albert Pujols' and that it may be less efficient.[3]
Overly Aggressive or Poor Eye?
Two non-mechanical things that can cause the kind of excessive tilt that you see in Ryan Ludwick's swing include being overly aggressive and having a poor eye.[4] Being too aggressive can lead you to chase pitcher's pitches, especially ones that are low down in the strike zone.[5] Chasing low pitches can also be caused by not being good at reading the pitch out of the pitcher's hand or starting the swing too soon and not having enough time to read the pitch.
A Longer Swing
Starting the swing too soon can be the result of trying to work around a problem like bat drag, and I do see some sequencing and timing issues in Ryan Ludwick's swing. In the clip below, watch how Ryan Ludwick's hands get behind his back elbow as he starts his swing.
You do not see that in the swing of Albert Pujols.
While in the case of Ryan Ludwick this doesn't create a classic problem with bat drag, it can lengthen one's swing just a bit, which can force you to start your swing sooner. That in turn will give you less time to read the pitch and will make you more vulnerable to being fooled.
Connection Issues
Another thing that is related to the topic of a longer swing is that I can't find any clips of Ryan Ludwick where he's in the classic position at the POC, as demonstrated by the picture of Albert Pujols below.
In every clip I have of Ryan Ludwick, at the Point Of Contact he is tilted way over the plate, his back elbow is too far away from his back hip, and he is much closer to extending and making the Power V at the POC than is Albert Pujols.
Too Much Head Movement
While many hitting coaches say that you should watch the bat hit the ball, and while you can sometimes find pictures of good hitters seemingly doing just that, the truth is that it's impossible to see the bat hit the ball. It all happens too fast. What good hitters actually do is they watch the ball as far as they can without moving their heads too much.
The clip above shows what Albert Pujols. Notice how stable his head is. He watches the ball with his eyes, but doesn't move his head to try to track the ball.
If you compare what Pujols does to what Ryan Ludwick does, you will see that Ludwick tries to watch the ball hit the bat. That creates far more head movement than you see in Albert Pujols' swing. All of that extra head movement could very easily explain why Ryan Ludwick has a harder time squaring up the ball.[6]
Na'huatl Huidu
So if I ran the zoo, and could get Ryan Ludwick to listen to me, what would I do? First, I would quiet up his pre-swing routine, if only because acting calmer can make you feel calmer. That might also have the side effect of making it harder for pitchers to quick pitch him and use his long pre-swing against him. Second, I would have him re-evaluate his approach and make sure that, instead of being aggressive and chasing every piece of garbage the pitcher threw his way (and in particular down in the strike zone), I would have him focus on waiting for the pitcher to make a mistake up and down the middle of the plate. Third, I would have Ryan Ludwick stop trying to watch the bat hit the ball and instead focus on reducing his head movement. I wouldn't try to fix anything else in Ryan Ludwick's swing until I made those three changes, because fixing those three things might fix the other problems in his swing.
Notes
[1] Part of Chris Duncan's problems, at least in 2009, seemed to be either his eye or his approach and not just his physical problems. He seemed to chase every crappy, pitcher's pitch that was thrown to him. I don't know if that was because he couldn't read the pitch or didn't care what it was, but it certainly hurt him.
[2] There's some question about what is cause and what is effect here. It could be that Ryan Ludwick habitually chases pitches that are low and away and that require him to tilt to go get them.
[3] If you watch Ryan Ludwick's feet, you can see some pretty significant differences in both his front and back feet compared to Albert Pujols. That suggests that he is moving and rotating differently.
[4] The really crafty pitchers, like Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux, are experts at using a hitter's ego against them. I don't think that's Ryan Ludwick's problem, because there are so many obvious mechanical issues with his swing, but that's something to keep in mind.
[5] While I didn't have a strong opinion on Hal McRae, it always bothered me that one of McRae's keywords seemed to be "aggressiveness." The problem is that being overly aggressive can lead a hitter to chase the pitches the pitcher wants him to, and that keep him from being able to swing with his optimal mechanics, rather than waiting for a mistake.
[6] You could argue that some of Ryan Ludwick's excessive tilt and body movement could be related to trying to watch the bat hit the ball, and by quieting up his head you could quiet up his entire body.
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Those are really interesting video clips, but I'm curious - how do they relate to 2008 vs. 2009?
Are all the Lud clips from 2009? Was he better at this stuff in 2008, but he regressed last year (not regression to the mean in the random probabilistic sense, but regression in terms of crappier mechanics)? Or do you think the difference between years is explained by luck (I know his BABIP was quite high in 2008, and about average last year), or something else other than these mechanics?
by BTown Birds fan on Dec 17, 2009 8:40 PM EST reply actions
Very good analysis
Can you be our hitting coach? :)
Just curious, did you compare Ludwick’s 2008 batting stance to his 2009 one? I think it would be rather interesting what kind of bad habits he happened to pick up.
And also, the Mang is perfect, beyond perfect. The Mang laughs at the lowly title of perfect.
My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier
If asked, I will serve
But, for the moment at least, the position’s occupied. However, I’m not holding my breath on the pre-Xmas presser.
Hehehehe
My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier
These are 2009 Clips
I haven’t been able to find any 2008 clips to compare, but I doubt that I’d find any major differences. I think the difference between 2008 and 2009 was, to a degree at least, teams figuring Ludwick out and, in particular, figuring out that he will chase crap. I have looked at 20 or so clips of him and have yet to find one where’s he’s swinging at a fastball down the middle. So far, it’s all stuff low or away (or up). Some of this could be due to a poor eye and some of this could be pitchers taking advantage of his aggressiveness.
forward this to the Cardinals, 6ly
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
yeah
how can be ensure that they read this? Mark McGwire, are you out there?
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
The trouble is....
He might see it, correct, Ludwick hits even worse, then get blamed for being a bad coach.
(That’s sort of happened when he tried to improve Holiday’s stance)
i'm willing to take that risk
from here on out, we need Luddy to be the Luddy of 08 not of 09
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Thing is though
they’re probably similar frame by frame, it’s just that one had better outcomes for whatever reason.
Also, when you compare someone to Albert Pujols, that’s just extremely unfair to the other person. I would compare his swing to players that have similar skill sets and bat from the right side. I wouldn’t compare a high school kids jump shot to Ray Allen’s jump shot and then tell him to repeat that — you’re just asking for failure. If you could just mimic Ray Allen then every kid would have a great jump shot. It’s a fallacy. What works for some people simply won’t work for other people.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Lot's of people believe this, but it's not true
Due to the laws of physics and physiology, there really is one right way to swing a bat, and Pujols happens to be one of the best examples of that one best way.
I'm not arguing this
There’s only one right way to shoot a jump shot as well, but not everyone can shoot a jump shot like Ray Allen, because not everyone has the wrist, forearm, and finger dexterity to do so. Reggie Miller is probably the best pure shooter ever to play basketball — are you saying that just by copying Reggie Miller and practicing for thousands of hours that every skinny 6’7" kid can be Reggie Miller? That’s a ludicrous assertion to make because all humans have differing potentials and capitalization rates, yet that’s what you’re doing here: If Ryan Ludwick swung the bat like Albert Pujols, then he’d be a better hitter.
Maybe, but you’re also forgetting that Ryan Ludwick has been swinging the bat like he does right now for a long, long time. By making an adjustment to his swing, I would guess it’s more of a 50/50 shot that he improves or gets worse. He’s gotten to this point with the swing he has, maybe he improves if he swings more like Pujols, but maybe that throws him all out of whack and he can’t recover from it. Maybe something about his noisy pre-swing routine and bend over the plate allows him to do things he normally wouldn’t be able to do.
There are plenty of examples of hitters who have succeeded despite weird pre-pitch routines and different placements for the hands, different strides, and everything else. I don’t think that you’re necessarily wrong here, Chris, but the implied point that making everyone swing the exact same way would produce similar results strikes me as glaringly simplistic.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Style Versus Substance
First, when looking at hitters, you have to understand the difference between style and substance. Different hitters will have very different styles. However, the really good ones all do EXACTLY the same thing from the moment the front heel plants through the Point Of Contact. This is because the laws of physics couldn’t care less which letters are on the back of your shirt.
Second, FWIW this season I helped a major league hitter pick up 50 points of average by studying and emulating Albert. So maybe that is something that’s worth trying.
Third, do you think all of Ludwick’s head movement is good, much less typical? I can’t think of another ML hitter who does that, much less a good one.
Fourth, I can’t tell you how many guys (Joe Thurston) who made it a long way (Joe Thurston) with their flawed swings (Joe Thurston) but who topped out at the major league level (Joe Thurston). These are your prototypical AAAA guys.
Albert Belle
did a very similar thing to what Ludwick does with his hands, yet he was very successful as a hitter at the MLB level.
I think Ludwick’s problems have a lot more to do with the difference in his plate discipline from 2008 to 2009 than anything to do with his swing, because I’ll wager that his swing hasn’t changed much at all since 2008. So he was just lucky, for a whole season, then went back to being regular old Ryan Ludwick — average major league hitter?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I might've missed it in this thread
has anyone explained his torrid luggaging July yet?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If it ain't broke, then don't fix it
But it is broken, then I’d say consider everything.
I don;t think his hyper hands is that big of a deal, but it is quite different than what you see in Pujols, Mauer, and other greats.
by thepainguy on Dec 19, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
awesome.
great article, painguy. well done
I cannot repeal the words of the golden eel
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2009 9:31 PM EST reply actions
i always love these posts
swing mechanics fascinate me, especially the golf swing. although, at least in golf, focusing on mechanics usually just screws up your swing. maybe ludwick would benefit from an improved mental approach at the plate
Smell the Glove
The Limits of Mechanics Analysis
I have worked with a ML hitter and, past a point, found that the more he thought about his mechanics the worse his swing got. It was funny, given how much I’m interested in mechanics, but on a couple of occasions I sent him texts to the effect of, “Stop worrying about your front knee. See the ball, hit the ball.”
In the case of Ludwick, it could be that the cue, “Watch the ball hit the bat,” is causing a whole cascade of mechanical problems as his body tries to make that happen. He might be able to improve significantly just by not trying to do that.
2009 = 2008
It turns out that I do have a 2008 clip of Ryan Ludwick and there is no significant difference in his swing and mechanics. That means that either his approach has changed or that pitchers have figured him out (most likely a tendency to chase pitcher’s pitches).
by thepainguy on Dec 18, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
two big changes
first, his chase rate increased from 24 percent in 2008 to 28 percent in 2009 --i.e., he chased about 30 additional pitches outside the strike zone. at a quick glance, i’m guessing those extra 30 chases diminished his production by 3 to 5 runs; i’ll do a little math later to see if that checks out.
the second big change, which is related to the lack of discipline: he saw a lot fewer fastballs in 2009. 55 pct of all pitches he saw in 2008 were fastballs; the figure was 50 percent in 2009. that means he saw about 100 fewer fastballs, year over year - and i’d guess that 30 of those were the result of the 30 extra chases ludwick made. those 30 fastballs weren’t thrown because ludwick chased a pitch outside the zone (probably a slider low and away) and put himself in a pitcher’s count (or made an out) instead of taking the pitch, getting the count in his favor, and forcing the pitcher to throw a strike.
none of which is to invalidate the swing analysis. they might go hand in glove -- e.g., reducing his head movement might improve his strike zone judgment.
by lboros on Dec 18, 2009 10:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
Ludwick has a pretty wild routine, but his swing isn’t that of Joe Thurston. Pitchers threw him substantially less strikes, and he responded with dramatically less patience. A few tweaks and some patience would do him a lot of good.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
At a minimum...
…lose the “aggressiveness” and see what happens.
Maybe it’s time to listen to Ted Williams and focus on getting a good pitch to hit rather than chasing the next piece of garbage that approaches the plate.
P.S. Thank the big guy that Ludwick’s swing isn’t as bad as Thurston’s. Thurston needs to total do-over. Of course, what’s sad about Joe is that he’s doing what guys like Mattingly teach, but that not big leaguers actually do.
I know crap about hitting a baseball,
But even to my untutored eye, he looks way too “jumpy-aroundy” before the pitch. Just calming down would be a big help, I’d think.
Seems to me
That if one hitter in this lineup should show a significant improvement with Big Mac as the hitting coach, Ryan Ludwick would be that hitter.
They are very similar in the fact that they both hit tons of fly balls, its just that Mac had a much better approach at the plate and a better mechanical swing than Ludwick does. If Mac can get him to change his approach at the plate to a more patient one and maybe quiet down his body language in his pre-swing routine, I think that could yield some much better results for Ludwick in 2010.
Oh, and teaching him how to hit more dingers wouldn’t hurt either. Hell, he already bats from the right side…
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Take more pitches, Ryan
I think things will start to fall into place just by forgetting everything Hal McRae has ever told you. He just needs to swing at less crap.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
+1
Like I said, I’m STILL trying to find a clip of him swinging at a good pitch.
The closest I’ve gotten is a single to RF on a FB outside.
good read
man, luddy’s head is all over the place. though, it’s not like albert’s head doesn’t go down to watch the ball approach.
but yeah, lud’s a mess mechanically
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
much less is accurate
but you go from eing able to see 2/3 of his face to none of his face. his head moves to track the ball. so, it’s not accurate to say that albert watches the ball with his eyes until he can’t anymore and doesn’t move his head
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 20, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Awesome post
But I think that Ludwick will be Dudwick in 2010. He had his career year in 2008. I knew after the 08 season that Lud was not going to put numbers like that up again. Your post goes to show that Lud is all over the place, while Albert is smooth the majority of the time – which is part of the difference between their numbers. Then again, Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols.
Best moment I've ever seen at a Cards game in person
Follow me on Twitter: @zoomzoomj88
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
You're a downer
Good money says he bounces back to at least be above average.
by Mulliganstew on Dec 18, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
...wick.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think you nailed it with the word "frenetic"
I love these articles; you do a great job of pointing out what seem to be some obvious flaws in Luddy’s swing. OTOH, he’s always seemed to have tremendous power on low pitches, more power than a guy with his build should have. How much of that was due to the “tilt” in his swing that you point out, i wonder?
As an extreme low-ball hitter, he has always kind of seemed like a LHB stuck in an RHB’s body; I picture a clean-and-jerk lift when i seem him connect. I’m completely talking out my arse, other than having watched my favorite player bat about 1000 times over the last 2 years, but he doesn’t seem to have near the power on high pitches. ESPN has a cool widget that shows stats in different parts of the zone, but I don’t have insider to see what Luddy’s was last year- can anyone confirm?
Anyway, Luddy had an .885 OPS on the road, vs .647 at home, last year- only 4 HR at home, vs 18 on the road- that really makes me think something was going on for him at busch. Whether it was nerves or freneticity or trying too hard or luggaging or whatever, a 250 point reverse split for home/away is remarkable and not likely to re-occur.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
...
he has always kind of seemed like a LHB stuck in an RHB’s body
Interesting observation—he throws left-handed. I wonder why learned to bat righty? Not many players bat right and throw left, unless they are also switch-hitters.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Many ball players switch hit when they are young.
I bet Luddy did, too. Perhaps he had more power from the right side, so he went with that. I was ambidextrous when I was young, and there never seemed to be rhyme or reason why I’d do some things lefty and some righty.
Now with extra feisty!
mattyfrommo is ambidextrous too, but not for the same reasons as you were
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I actually am ambidextrous
and for those reasons too, if I understand what the hell you two are typing about
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 18, 2009 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
My sister's that way too.
Writes left, throws right, switch hits (batting, you dirty-minded jerks!)
She was a very good softball player.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
hey i didn't say anything about your sister!
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
this is why i usually wear some Oakley's so people can't see my eyes
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
I switch-hit in softball, too.
I golfed lefty as a kid, but switched firmly to righty once I was in my upper teens. I played street hockey with the neighborhood kids, and I could play either way. I also played guitar lefty, but a teacher made me switch. I don’t write well left-handed. But I’m stubborn. I could learn. Now that I’m old, I’m definitely right-dominant.
Now with extra feisty!
Interesting. My sister is also a redhead.
Actually, she’s strawberry-blonde, but I think that counts. Anybody have a report on redheads being ambidextrous at a higher rate than non-redheads?
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
me
I’m a red head and I am ambidextrous. Can’t hit for shite from the righty side in baseball but can throw and catch fine either way.
but I have no clue about other red heads being amphibious. Except that we are way sweeter than everybody else.
Jermaine Dye fan since KC. He's STILLLLLLLLLL GOT IT!!! now lets get him...and a real closer (named rafael soriano). Thats all, thats all I want.
only female gingers are sweet
us dudes are just weird, alien like creatures
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
i am hopeless at doing anything on my left-hand side.
Absolutely hopeless. I can’t spike a volleyball, kick a football, throw anything, write, do anything complicated.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
i'd like to here painguys take on more power as a low ball hitter thing
maybe that’s why he does what he does? maybe he couldn’t handle the middle to high pitches when he was youner so he trained himself to only go after low balls? every time but twice last season when i saw him connect on a higher pitch did he drive it. he hit a double once & a HR the second time. every other time he went after a higher pitch he popped it up. maybe that’s why he can only drive low balls for XBH’s?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
Interesting question
With his extreme tilt habitual, he’s going to have a hard to tilting back up to hit the high pitch.
I’m not sure about his low ball preference, but I would bet it’s related to his head movement and what that causes his body to do.
so are you saying if he changed his approach he could handle higher pitches?
or at least handle then better?
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
His tilt enables him to hit low pitches
However, it’s hard to tilt that much that often and still be consistent.
I’d like to see him look for balls up a little higher and just hit the low ones when he has to.
"really makes me think something was going on for him at busch"
just occurred to me
MAYBE IT’S BRASS MONKEY
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
here's another interesting fact
Dude is a perfect 40 for 40 in BB’s in his career on a 3-0 pitch. IE, he’s never in his mlb career, over 7 partial to full seasons, put a 3-0 pitch into play. He’s taken a lot of strikes and then hit 3-1, 3-2, etc, and theoretically might have swung and hit some foul, or swung and missed, but he’s never, ever, put a 3-0 pitch into play.
Albert has 53 hits and 15 HR on 3-0, and I’ve always thought he should be “more aggressive” on 3-0 pitches… he’s a veritable francouer compared to luddy. maybe luddy ought to let’r’rip on 3-0 one day, just to try it out?
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
This tells me something different
Perhaps he really doesn’t trust his strike zone judgment? If he’s taking that much on 3-0 pitches, maybe he just doesn’t know what his “pitch” is or what pitch to look for that he knows he can mash?
I could see this strategy working at the sub-MLB level, where some guys don’t know where it’s going, and they aren’t confident in throwing their off-speed pitches on 2-0 and 3-1, that’s not the case at the MLB level though.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Agreed all around
That suggests the problem is more likely related, at least in part, to his approach and not his eye, which is a very good thing. It’s also something that Mac can probably help him with.
It’s quite possible to fix one’s approach, but if you don’t have an eye, then you’re…
Agreed
I think his approach is really what needs fixing, not that a few mechanical tweaks couldn’t help. I’m just wary of tweaking mechanically because sometimes it does more harm than good.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Very Interesting
You are more likely to get a FB on 3-0, but for some reason the Wick doesn’t like them.
This could perhaps be related to the connection/bat drag issues I discussed above.
3-0
What exactly is the logic of not swinging on 3-0. I can see being selective, but on 3-0, I’d be hacking especially if I have a power stroke. I think this accomplishes two things. First, it allows you to sit on the pitch you are looking for and drive it. Second, if the pitcher knows you are swinging on anything close, it’s even more likely you draw a walk. I’ve never been a fan of putting the bat on your shoulder UNLESS there is are specific game situations where drawing a walk makes a big difference.
If you are Vince Coleman or Lou Brock, I feel different, but especially in Luddy’s case, I’d be swinging more.
Just win
Borderline pitches that you would normally swing at
get taken for a ball and you draw a walk. As I was saying above: For players who don’t trust their strike zone judgment, they should be taking more often, but certainly not every time. I think Ludwick has trouble judging the strike zone, especially last year, and this is why he is taking so often on 3-0.
The general logic is that if you take automatically, you’re still going to get a pretty good pitch to hit again on 3-1. The thinking is that you’d rather take a borderline strike on 3-0 than to put a borderline strike into play, where it’s probably going to be an out 75% of the time.
As a hitter, I think one should look for the best possible pitch and location that they like on 3-0, and then do the same thing again on 3-1. If they don’t get that pitch, they should take. Even 3-2 is a pretty good count to hit in.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
As an aside
when I used to coach hitting to Babe Ruth and High School hitters, I used to ask hitters to set the balls on the tee according to the counts they were in. In other words, “How do you think a pitcher is going to approach you on different counts, and what should your approach be?” Nearly every hitter, with no coaching at all, would set the tee in their favorite spot on 3-0, but they wouldn’t do it on 3-1 and 2-0, which are nearly identical hitter’s counts in terms of what pitch you can expect to get. I find it so frustrating that hitters in middle school and high school don’t get taught the importance of the count by their coaches. That’s the most important thing to take away from any of Ted Williams’ writing on hitting:
- Your approach should change depending on the count you’re in.
- You should attempt to get the best pitch you can hit in the counts you are most favored in.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
oh, and wow.
MLB finally has video of that “foul ball” in game 1 of the playoffs available on Luddy’s player page. It’s too grainy to see if it was actually fair or foul, though; seems to drop the frame where the ball hits the dirt. But it’s better than the blimp-cam black screen that TBS gave us.
Sure looked fair from where I was sitting, but I guess there’s a reason they don’t put the umps in the seats.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
we need some fuckin' technology!
get on it, Guys in the Truck. we know you’re checking VEB between turduckens.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I hate to say it...
…but the reaction of the big guy in the Pujols jersey, who’s in the middle of the frame and who turns his back to the camera after the ball lands, says foul ball to me.
He wanted it to be fair, and had his arm up fair, and then pulled it back and gave a big old, “Oh snap,” even before the ump made the call.
no if you pause it you can see it's fair
but that video quality is awful. pathetic actually for 2009
Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.
yeah, that was fair
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Dec 20, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think batting ludwick second in the lineup would help with the pitches he sees.
his career numbers batting second are great, and if there is such a thing as protection ludwick could benefit.
I am the Batman
his career numbers batting second are great
Small sample size.
Ludwick’s biggest problem is his approach. He’s a hacker, and whether that’s because Hal McRae told him to be or not we may/may not ever figure out. Unorthodox swing? Sure. Things he could do better? Sure. Enough to panic over? Nope. The dude was one of the ten best bats in the league in 2008 with, if I’m reading the comments right, more or less the same swing. I’d bet if he was more selective he’d do better, after all it isn’t how many swings you take, it’s what pitches you swing at.
My two cents, anyway…
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 19, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Note:
Everything in the 2nd paragraph is a comment on the original post, not directed at Cody.
VivaElBirdos: Celebrating glorious mustaches since 2009
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 19, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
if someone could find the pitches that are thrown to ludwick when batting second compared to later that would be sweet
It’s just a guess, but I think there would be a significant difference of fastballs he would see.
I am the Batman
I like the idea of hitting him 2nd
especially if Holliday signs on.
In a slight digression, I’d be really interested (VEP) to see some pitchFX charts showing how many pitches the Cards’ no.2 hitter (i.e. the guy in front of Pujols) gets inside the zone, compared to every other position in the batting order. Perhaps you could break it down into the “fat”, “Edge” and “outside”-type zone splits that Harry Pavlidis has used in the past. I’m really interested to see if our general assumption (i.e. the guy in front of Pujols gets challenged more in the strike zone, and gets more fat, hittable pitches than average). If indeed that is the case, a guy with a decent eye but who swings at slightly too much crap out of the zone (i.e. Ludwick) seems a good choice in that slot.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
#2 spot in the order
Should be Colby Rasmus. He’s a dead fastball hitter, and I think he’s more likely to put up a .350 OBP than Ludwick is batting there.
Yes, that leaves two lefties at the top of the order, but Rasmus has shown the ability to hit lefties in his career, and Lugo would assume Skips spot against lefties anyway. I like Ludwick in the 5 hole best, as long as we have Holliday, with Freese and then Yadi behind him, and Ryan in the 9 spot. Also, with Pujols and Holliday on base in front of Ludwick, he’ll get more pitchers out of the stretch, where they generally struggle more with their offspeed stuff, meaning he’ll get more fastballs.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
not that i trust every fangraph stat
but according to pitch value ludwick was an above average fastball hitter while rasmus was below.
I am the Batman
That just means he hit better against the fastball last year
It doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a better fastball hitter going forward.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 20, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think this has a lot to
do with Colby moving to the front of the box last season, for no explicable reason whatsoever. According to the scouting reports I’ve seen he was an above average fastball hitter in the minors, so I’m guess that will translate at some point, possibly when Big Mac moves him back in the box this year.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
It could also just be problems with the stat
The Run Value stats shown on FanGraphs are basically like wOBA adjusted for count (as well as values for balls and strikes), and as you know, wOBA can be heavily influenced by BIP luck. Rasmus could have hit well against against fastballs and simply have had a lot of them go in mitts.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 20, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
The reason I pointed this out is that I saw him play in Springfield during his big season there and he had his foot on the back line of the box in all 12 AB’s that I saw.
I saw him again in 2009 with Memphis twice, and he was buried in the back of the box in all 30 AB’s I saw, so moving up in the box obviously had something to do with an adjustment this season. I blame McRae Meddling, but that’s just a WAG.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Not to mention those run values don't
take into account anything like sequencing of pitching or quality of pitches. That’s one of my least favorite stats on Fangraphs — I think it’s nearly worthless in analytical ability and likely muddies the situation with false certainty more than anything else.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
agreed.
there’s myriad problems with it. I think it has some vague use for pitchers but it’s basically useless (or, worse, potentially misleading) for hitters.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see the problem
It’s basically just wOBA by pitch type – it doesn’t intend to be anything else. Plus, it’s very useful for Pitch f/x studies.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
If Grienke threw only fastballs would
the value of his fastball be the same or different? I’m basically proposing an unfalsifiable hypothetical but if you answer different, then the measurement is something exclusive to the fastball but is actually capturing (potentially) significant amounts of additional information.
The fangraphs posts about player X having the best slider and player Y having the best curveball strikes me as overreaching but that’s how the stat is portrayed.
I’d be curious what the y-t-y correlation is on these too. I’m not big on descriptive statistics that aren’t predictive — that’s an entirely personal preference though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
That's a good point
However, it certainly doesn’t nullifies the value of run values. It just means you can’t take them at face value – which FanGraphs unfortunately does too often – like with most stats.
I really only use them for Pitch f/x studies anyway, so it shouldn’t really matter for me.
Y-T-Y correlation for run values with at least 200 pitches thrown in 2008 and 2009 .28, r-squared of .08 with a p-value < 6.4E7.
So not that much y-t-y correlation. Then again, I was using Gameday classifications which aren’t great. With better classifications, the correlation would look better.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
"the correlation would look better."
Or worse. How could you possibly know which?
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
I'm betting it looks better
Correlation happens when their is a distinct relationship between data points. If you have data points which are muddled and don’t necessarily convey what they are trying to – the correlation will natually be lower.
That’s just theoretical though. Maybe I’ll ask Harry Pav to do the same thing with his better classifications.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Strauss must have told him to do it.
Now with extra feisty!
by spants on Dec 20, 2009 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
my raging headache just morphed that into a horrific mental image
fuck… painkiller better kick in
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 21, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
We agree on this
there isn’t a single good reason to be up there, unless you’re Ichiro, and I don’t even think that he is nearer to the front than the back.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
#2 spot in the order
Should be Colby Rasmus. He’s a dead fastball hitter, and I think he’s more likely to put up a .350 OBP than Ludwick is batting there.
Maybe against righties, but I’m not comfortable with him in front of Albert if there’s a lefty on the mound. Maybe Freese (or even Yadi) would be a better choice in this instance. Yadi has a .353 career OBP (.363 last year) against lefties and I’m not convinced Colby will come close to that, even as he “figures it out” going forwards. Freese (if he can hit a lick) might be an even better choice against lefties, as he’s going to be faster round the bases.
I also quite like the idea that Colby’s speed is better utilised in a lower spot (although I kinda think it’s probably a wash, as, even if he has a red light when Albert’s at the plate and he’s on 1B, I think his ability to go first-to-third on a single, or score on a double, makes him valuable in the 2-hole).
I like Ludwick at #5 too, so either way is fine.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 6:38 AM EST up reply actions
freese has never been a good obp guy. i would be surprised to see him spend a lot of time in the #2 slot.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
who else is there?
like I said, I like Yadi, but assuming Lugo is batting leadoff, and assuming Colby continues to suck (or even sucks a little less) vs LHP, I can’t think of too many other options. I’m assuming Luddy & Holliday/Craig are 4 and 5 in some order. Although Freese doesn’t have a great BB rate, his contact rates have always been good, and he has above-average OBP rates at every step of the way in the minors so, ummm, I kinda disagree. I don’t think his OBP will be anything special in the majors but he’ll probably be fine vs LHP.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:12 AM EST up reply actions
i'd be shocked
to see tlr put craig 4th or 5th. think it’s much more likely to see colby there
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
right now? without holliday or any other FA acquisitions.
just working out the probable lineups, you’d probably be talking about rasmus or ryan. neither of them have the OBP i’d like.
freese could see some time in the two slot against LHP – his MLE obp was .346 last year. i would think that makes some sense v. lhp: ryan/freese/pujols/luddy/craig/lugo/rasmus/molina/p
v. RHP, i’m guessing you’d see rasmus right now in the two slot. not ideal, though i think the OBP will improve in 2010. we’ll see who we end up signing.
My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits
Ah, I forgot Boog is probably leading off...
I suppose it’ll be Boog/Lugo 1/2 mostly. Pretty bad tbh. If Freese can indeed put up close to a .350 OBP I’d prefer him ahead of albert, I think.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 23, 2009 5:40 AM EST up reply actions
I assume this would be covered by some of the studies that debunked lineup protection.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
you saying
that a batter hitting in front of AP won’t see more FBs?
i thought the main thing about debunking lineup protection was just that intentional walks are good as long as you have lg avg hitters behind him
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
Actually, I don't think so
I’ve read a lot of those studies, and most of them were written prior to Pitch F/X data being freely available, and were based on production for those spots in the lineup that were situated around a great hitter, and the great hitter’s production in those instances as well.
I haven’t seen a study done that looked at the quality of pitches seen by a player batting in front of a .400 wOBA player to see if those pitches were better pitches to hit. Seems like a good thing to analyze though.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
But if they found lineup protection to be a myth;
i.e. a batter who is a .350 wOBA hitter with .300 wOBA hitters in front and behind him remains a .350 wOBA hitter when those hitters are changed to .400 wOBA hitters, then that would support the position that even if there were a difference in pitch selection, it doesn’t make one kind of hitter into a different kind of hitter.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
This is true, but...
I’d still like to see someone use pitch F/X to determine whether the actual pitches seen by the hitters hitting in front of the .400 wOBA player aren’t better.
You would think that the pitches being more hittable that the hitters would perform better, but I don’t want to assume this fact, because maybe there is a slight edge to having an amazing fastball hitter in front of a hitter like Pujols, if it can be proven that those hitters see more fastballs over the course of a season.
FWIW, you would need a shitload of data across multiple seasons to prove this, but I think it would make an interesting statistics thesis if someone wanted to do it.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I'll look into it
If I see something interesting, I’ll write it up as a FanPost here or at THT.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
even if you don't see something interesting it'd be worth writing up
i.e. “a rejection of the TLR idea that putting a guy in the 2-hole ahead of Albert will help him get pitches to hit”. Negative results, as you well know, are often just as useful as positive ones.
RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!
by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Steve Sommer did something like this over at his old
stlsportscene blog on wordpress. I can’t get to it at work to search though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
Yeah, I'd like to redo it now that I have a more complete database
by stevesommer05 on Dec 23, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Can't really quibble with anything there
other than that fact that the sample sizes are so small. It would be interesting to do a long run analysis from, say, 2007-2009 using Albert as the protector and the second spot in the Cardinals lineup as the “hitter being protected”.
There are just so many damn variables in an analysis like this, unless, of course, your have a 2000 PA sample size using the same two players in the same batting order, which in this day and age will be nearly impossible to get.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
yeah it gets a little dicey
if you try to hold constant all the things you really should hold constant. Like I said it’d be worth a do-over in an attempt to expand the data set some. It’s going on my to-do list (unless VEP kills it off first), unfortunately the to-do list is fairly long right now.
by stevesommer05 on Dec 23, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Ditto
Just tell me if you plan to start looking at it, so I don’t have to waste my time.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 23, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I can't believe you're saying Chris Duncan wasn't patient.
his walk rate was much higher than most on the team. Duncan’s problem was that he could make contact to save his life.
I am the Batman
Lil Dunc
My problem with him wasn’t with his walk rate. My problem with him was that, when he decided to swing, in 2009 at least it seemed to be that he swung at terrible pitches, especially change-ups and 2-seamers outside.
He also swung at ANYTHING low and away
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Actualy, Duncan has swung at about 29% of pitches seen low and away since 2007
Compared to 28% for the league average lefty.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 21, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
Let's Look at One Ludwick AB
So I looked at the AB from which I took the clip above. What I found was interesting.
The AB was in the bottom of the 4th inning on 4/23/2009 against Livan Hernandez, who isn’t overpowering but is crafty like a fox.
SL = Ball low and away
SL = Ball low and away
SL/CT = Ball low and away
FB = Strike down the middle
SL/CT = Foul tip outside
CH = Pop up to SS down and in
Livan clearly thought Ludwick would chase low and away and/or outside. Also, and to the point that was made above, Ludwick missed his pitch on 3-0. He took a FB down the middle.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_04_23_nynmlb_slnmlb_1&mode=gameday
what is most interesting about luddy's swing
is that he hits as well as he does. he does so many things that make hitting the ball even harder than it should be
what saves his butt is that somehow he often has good hip-hand coordination
I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going
That's the mark of a really skilled athlete
In the same vein, Joe Thurston must be incredibly gifted, given that he hits despite having the worst swing in the major leagues.
What might have been…
i like to think it saves his face
from ‘luggage’
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
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