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Around SBN: Raiders' GM Begins The Purge

-12/15/09 Drop it like it's hot....Stove Thread

Poor reference I know, but the current Hot Stove thread is rather big at this very moment, so I took the liberty of making one if that's all well and fun:

 

Teh Blockbuster- Cliff Lee to the Mariners, Roy Halladay to the Phillies, Prospects(Namely Kyle Drabek) to the Jays.

I can comprehend this trade from the Jays side and especially the Mariners side, but why would Philadelphia do this? I understand that Lee was a lefty, and due to their LHP talent in the rotation, he was expendable, and the fact that Hamels was bound to rebound. However, that guy basically carried that rotation on his back going 4-0 with a bit over 1.5 ERA. It's baffling to me, especially that they give up the deal-breaker of the last trade deadline for swapping pitchers! There's also the argument that Lee will sign elsewhere after a year while Halladay is there for 3 or 4 more years. They gave Halladay 20 million a year. Are you telling me that Lee would shy away from that?

The Jays grab prospects, namely Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor(Taylor is being flipped for our beloved Brett Wallace), which is building for the future, and the Mariners give up a group of prospects that aren't really that pressing. They didn't even have to give up Morrow or Saunders! Amazing trade for the Mariners, despite the fact that they need offense more than they need pitching (Lead the AL in ERA as a staff). I know that Halladay didn't gain the greatest support here, Carpenter and Wainwright made sure of that, but still, he was a considerable option for the Cardinals at the deadline, and deserves some mention.


Red Sox spend about 100 million-Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron

5/85 seems like a bit much for Lackey, but that's still a hell of a rotation. There was also some support for him. Cameron also was signed for 2/15.5. Not a bad deal by any means, but this likely spells the end of Bay in Boston, which would move or so make Matt Holliday signing with us more likely yeah? If I were the Yankees, I would be a little bit frightened at their most hated neighbors.

 

Well, I know there's tons of things going on right now, and I am sure that Matt Holliday chatter is very wanted right now, so let her rip :).

Comment 255 comments  |  6 recs  | 

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i was about to make one

i was going to go with “feeling hot, hot, hot (stove)”

this is a nice touch, too

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 8:38 PM EST reply actions  

Hot stove, winter in the city

Back of our bench gettin’ mighty gritty

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Dec 15, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

there's no room

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 16, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions  

BOOM

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 3:59 AM EST up reply actions  

anyway

it looks like the cards are probably going to sign holliday, so what additional moves can we make?

assuming holliday gets $16MM and penny gets $9MM, that leaves us (VEB) with $5MM to spend. where do we put it? we need a bullpen arm, some bench help and a fifth starter

fill in the blanks

c – thunderthighs
1b – mang
2b – schu
ss – boog
3b – natty ice
lf – lego
cf – daddy ramtung
rf – lud

sp – carp
sp – wain
sp – penny
sp – lohse
sp – ???

cl – frank
su – ???
rp – motte
rp – kmac/boggs/gaww
rp – jukich
rp – diner
rp – miller

bench – lugo
bench – mudflap
bench – ?
bench – ?
bench – ???

guess i’m gonna go with

bench – allen craig
bench – ruben gotay
bench – hinske
sp – garcia/boggs/gaww
su – calero (hoppin’ on this bandwagon. he’s only had an fip over 4 once!)

that’ll still leave us with a few million in dry powder that we can use to help us pay for our midseason trade that we traded all our scrapheap signings for

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 8:56 PM EST reply actions  

I am on the Calero bandwagon

I think that he would be a great addition.

I would like to go after a guy like Reed Johnson, who absolutely destroys lefties, for a million or two if that would afford him. Hinske is a great addition as well. After those 3 additions, assuming Garcia is in the 5th spot, I think that would spare money for some flexibility

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 15, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

i'd rather just give craig a chance

than pick up johnson. otherwise, we need to trade him. he belongs in mlb

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Is Allen Craig actually J-Rod?

I remember the “he belongs in the majors” mantra about him. I think the GM knows something we don’t know.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 15, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

J-Rod was in the minors for a loooong time though

He was like, 27 or 28 by the time he played in the majors I think

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Dec 15, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Jack Cust, Nelson Cruz, Dan Uggla

These players weren’t heralded as great prospects either. Teams can be wrong.

Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation

by azruavatar on Dec 15, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Cust and Cruz

are different from Craig and Uggla though, in that their walk rates in the minors were always very high coupled with good slugging numbers as well.

Cust (minors): .286/.429/.518
Cruz (minors): .297/.369/.537

Uggla (minors): 276/.347/.442
Craig (minors): 306/.366/.513

Cust was held back because he literally had no defensive position in the major leagues. He was born a DH, but a .429 OBP in the minors is nothing to sneeze at.

I think that’s what has hurt Craig — his walk rate. His career walk rate in the minors is 7.5%. Cust’s is 19.6% which is ridiculous, Cruz has a 9.4% walk rate in the minors.

I would say that Craig is very similar to Cruz in terms of makeup:

  • Good athlete
  • Good power numbers
  • Can play both corner OF spots at an average level

Craig is probably the better overall hitter, but his OBP is also more closely tied to his batting average, meaning a .300/.350 BA/OBP can become a .250/.300 pretty easily at the next level. Cruz broke out in a big way last year with the Rangers, I guess we’ll have to wait and see if Craig can do the same.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 16, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

no

and i would like to point out things like the soriano contract when discussing the merits of GMs

i’m interested what a GM could possibly know that would translate to “craig is absolutely not going to put up acceptable big league numbers despite consistently putting up exceptional numbers in every level of the minors”

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

perhaps a little bit too specific

GM relies on minor legue manager, luhnow, roving instructors etc. I suspect if Mo knows something it is the combined opinions of these and more. I read in another thread that scouts and managers just know when someone won’t translate to big leagues.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 16, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Except when they don't?

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

...
I read in another thread that scouts and managers just know when someone won’t translate to big leagues.

What the fuck?

by vivaelpujols on Dec 16, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I totally understand it

Scouts and managers have never made a mistake. All players that hit the big leagues turn into good, if not great, hitters. Not a single player has ever been left in the minors that ever had real MLB talent.

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 16, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

FAT is just the stuff accumulating aroud Bobby Cox's face?

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions  

C'mon guys..

It’s obvious that sixty percent of the time the GM’s are right every time

There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971

by wizardofozzie on Dec 17, 2009 12:15 AM EST up reply actions  

I posted that

and used an example in one of the main threads. I think, for the most part, that this is true to a certain extent, because someone who has seen thousands upon thousands of players over 10-15 years as a professional scout is going to have a pretty good idea of what a big league hitter looks like. Obviously they aren’t going to be right every time, but then again, neither are any of us statheads. You need a good combination of both.

If I was a stathead back in ‘06, I would have though that Kevin Kouzmanoff was going to be the next Paul Molitor — dude put up sick numbers in the minor leagues, but I do remember some scouts having problems with his swing and his patience early in counts, and that’s pretty much described what’s happened to him since getting to the big leagues — his walk rates have dropped off significantly and he has a ton more strikeouts in the MLB. He’s still a league average hitter by OPS+, but he’s not the perennial All-Star that a lot of people said he was going to be when he debuted a few years ago.

For some reason, some guys just tear up AAA pitching but can’t do very well against major league pitching, and there are many, many players who’ve had this problem over the years.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Looks like you get more respect, even Hazel razzed me and that hurts

It has to be that teams have very strong views of who are their best 25 as the whole organization is geared to that metric. I’m not surprised at all that players like Craig may be viewed as fatally flawed in some respect that keeps them from graduating. In Craig’s case, probably more likely that they wanted to wait a year, but it’s also possible they don’t think he will translate given how much they could have used a big RH bat late last season.

Wallace is now a clear example of this issue. Two teams have now passed on someone considered the “Second Coming” in this blog at this time last year. I suspect in his case that the no-field label has made him a DH/PH prospect only, but it might be some other flaw we haven’t heard about.

Of course GMs make mistakes but I suspect they get it right a very large percentage of the time.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 18, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like I spend my razz pretty freely,

and I don’t mean it personally.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 18, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

TWCRS?

or perhaps

TWJSS?

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Wallace

is, at the very least, a first baseman. He’s not quite Adam Dunn yet. The main knock on his 3B was that (despite an OK arm and a solid glove) he only had fall-down range (although TZR apparently had him somewhere near an average minor-league 3B, which, if accurate, would translate to a slightly below-average MLB one); as a 1B his range wouldn’t look nearly so bad.

As for Craig, part of the reason he didn’t come up last year was that he only really started raking in AAA until the last 2-3 months of the season, by which point we’d already picked up DeRosa and were in negotiations (presumably) to land Holliday. I’m pretty sure he only OPSed barely above the .800 region (with a few very dry spells) in the first 2-3 months of the year.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

this post makes sense

except the part where it doesn’t

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 16, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I read that posters know if their posts are going to make sense before they post them.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

but not always

see, this post is just not going to translate well into a front page thread

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 16, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

thunderthighs, that's a new one....

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 15, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

i was more proud

of natty ice. because you see it references that his name is freese which sounds like freeze and that he likes the booze

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions  

GEDDIT?

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, but

yawn. imo.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 15, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

no

i was talking about my joke, not your face

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 15, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions  

OH BURN

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 4:21 AM EST up reply actions  

it's probably true

but I got told

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I remain deeply intrigued by ex-A's walking emergency room Justin Duschcherer.

soft-tosser who’s had success in both the bullpen and as a starter. Had some depression problems last year to go along with chronic arm trouble that he apparently recovered from towards the tail-end of the year. He isn’t a good bet to provide a full season’s labour, but he could do the Smoltz job of “fitting in” either as a set-up guy or 5th starter (whichever seems more pressing, and depending on how well Boggs and Garcia fit into their respective roles in ST). I really have no concept of what he might cost – given his extremely chequered injury history, I’m sure it’d be less than Smoltz is looking for. I’d love to grab him AND Calero, if the funds would stretch that far. That might be wishful thinking, however, but he did only get $3.9m last year in his final arby year, and then missed the whole season with his various issues. Could a $3m gamble get it done and still leave us cash for Calero?

If we get Holliday, the only other addition that might be vaguely worth making would be a lefty bench bat. I’ve got Craig as my corner infield/outfield backup, Lugo as MIF guy/Skip platoon, Tyler Greene as backup shortstop/defensive substitution, pornstache backing up Molina, and then one of the dirt cheap LH options – for me, Gabe Gross might be the most attractive as I think he might sign for close to the league minimum after a really bad year (although I’m not sure if he still counts as arby eligible, that’d make him less attractive). There might be some FAT lefties who might be worth going after, I’m not really sure (Fiorentino?), although if we’re getting to this level, I guess we might as well just go with Jon Jay instead. I’d love to know what Church would take, as well. I’m guessing Hinske (who had a decent year) will cost $3m or so, so he might be a bit much.

I guess if there’s any chance we can get Duke, Smoltz or even Myers with that money, they’d be the best options. Otherwise, I’m gonna say Calero, a lefty for $1m or so, and maybe a reclamation project of some sort – how about Bartolo Colon? Wang? Noah Lowry? I still wouldn’t mind taking a flier on Gagne for a minor league deal, although there’s a good chance he’s toast and probably wouldn’t come here for that anyhow.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 4:19 AM EST up reply actions  

circle of life
8:28pm: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report (scroll down to 7:50pm) that Billy Beane and the A’s first became interested in Taylor last summer when the Phillies tried to acquire Matt Holliday.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 15, 2009 11:09 PM EST reply actions  

Beane's move

Started by sending RHP Huston Street, LHP Greg Smith and OF Carlos Gonzalez to Rockies for Holliday in Nov 08
Sent Holliday to STL for 3B/1B/DH Brett Wallace, RHP Clay Mortensen and OF Shane Peterson in Jul 09
Sent Wallace to Blue Jays for CF Michael Taylor in Dec 09

So net – Beane traded Gonzalez for Taylor, Street for Mortensen and Smith for Peterson. Is this a win or a loss for Beane?

by ubeddie on Dec 16, 2009 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

CarGo looks like he's gonna be great

Taylor could be as good, but that’s still a “maybe” whereas CarGo is already a well above-average major league OFer. So that’s a lose, in my book.

They saved some cash dumping Street for Mortensen, but I suppose Street had a very strong year and Mort remains a pretty fungible 5th starter IMO. I’d say that’s maybe a tie.

I don’t think Shane Peterson will be more than a 4th OF (at best) and I don’t think Greg Smith’s very good. I suppose, at least Smith IS a major league 5th SP, in the Mort mould. I think it’s kindof a wash.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 4:29 AM EST up reply actions  

lose, lose, don't know who greg smith is

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 16, 2009 1:15 AM EST reply actions  

reply fail

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 16, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions  

smith had a decent rookie year in '08

but that’s speaking traditional stats though

I am the Batman

by CodyG on Dec 16, 2009 1:36 AM EST up reply actions  

K/BB not very good and he's a flyball pitcher

lots of people thought he’d get toasted in Colorado because of his flyball and not-really-striking-anyone-out tendencies. He’s probably a marginal 5th starter, really.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 4:30 AM EST up reply actions  

What will Felipe Lopez cost?

Haven’t heard any rumors about Lopez, but if we get Holliday, this guy would be great to plug into the two spot.

He started playing full time in 2005, and here are his slash lines since:
Overall (3245 PA): .280/.349/.407/.756
W/ Nats (1354 PA): .250/.316/.344/.660
W/ CIN,STL, AZ, MIL (1891 PA): .302/.369/.451/.820

I know you can’t just throw out what he did in Washington, but he certainly has been two different hitters the last 5 seasons. Last year was great for him, but somewhat inflated by a BABIP roughly 30 points higher than his career norm. I don’t see why you can’t expect something along the lines of .290/.360/.420/.780 next year. How good would that look in front of Albert and Holliday?

Not sure what happens with Freese at this point, but in (small sample size alert) 95 career games at 3B Lopez has a UZR of 2.0. I think it’s reasonable to expect average defense from him at third.

Having said all this, I don’t even know if he’d fit in the budget, but I’d really like to see a lineup of Schu, Lopez, Albert, Holliday, Ludwick, Rasmus, Molina, Pitcher, Ryan.

by pitchingandefense on Dec 16, 2009 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

I Just Don't See...

…what Lopez can give us that Freese can’t. IF we sign Holliday, we’ll need to save our moolah for either bullpen help or a 5th starter, maybe a 4th outfielder (Ryan Church!). IMO he’s not good enough to replace who we have at 2B or SS, and probably shouldn’t start at 3B.

Big McLargehuge!
:=8O

by The MooCow on Dec 16, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree Freese should start

But if recent events have caused those in charge to think differently, then Lopez (with his ability to get on base ahead of Pujols) is the guy I’d like to see.

And I’m not sure how I feel about spending much on a 4th OF, when we already have Craig and Jay for cheap. But Church is definitely intriguing.

by pitchingandefense on Dec 16, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't mind Lopez

but I kind of agree with the bovine that he doesn’t really have an obvious place to fit into the 2010 Cardinals. He’s also coming off a career year, so I imagine he’s looking for a two or even three year deal, and should probably get it IMO. A team (like us last year) with multiple infield gaps where Lopez’s flexibility can come into play is a better fit, IMO.

I like his switch-hitting ability, but he DID have a pretty elevated BABIP last year (although his peripherals were strong, too) so a slight regression seems in order. Your .360 OBP .420 SLG estimate seems a little bullish, but it’s not TOO far ahead of what CHONE and Bill James peg him for next year. With average (perhaps even slightly above) defense at 2B and 3B, you’re probably looking at a 3-win player with versatility. I just don’t know if spending a decent amount of coin on that sort of player is necessarily worth it when we’ve already got potential 2-win solutions internally at 2B, 3B and LF.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 16, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Lopez only if they decide Freese shouldn't be starting

I agree that bang for your buck, you’re going to get more value from Freese than Lopez. But if the front office decides to go in a different direction (away from Freese starting) then Lopez is the guy I’d like to see.

And I’m bullish on Lopez because outside of Washington he has .369 OBP and a .451 SLG since becoming a starter in 2005. I’d definitely take something in the .350-.370 range of OBP as a tablesetter in this lineup. And let Colby hit sixth where he has a little less pressure and can run more, until he develops his on base abilities at the ML level.

All that said, I think we are all in agreement that Freese should get the job.

by pitchingandefense on Dec 16, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

ruh roh...

we got competition.

MB for LF in 2010!

by guayzimi on Dec 16, 2009 10:10 AM EST reply actions  

phrases like "Omar Minaya jumping on Holliday"

are now hopelessly warped. Thanks, VEB!

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Rangers sale final... anyone want to buy the Astros?

Anyone? Anyone? I hear you can convert their park into a funhouse real easily.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 10:32 AM EST reply actions  

bah

Red Sox working hard to acquire A Gon

Meanwhile, in baseball names dept, Blue Jays sign Lance Broadway.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Johnny Damon on the prowl

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

This title made me laugh.

In a rather unladylike way.

Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?

by ClemsonGirl on Dec 16, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions  

So, one note out of the Lee trade…

Apparently Brett Wallace is going to be traded to Toronto, due to him not being able to play 3B.

I actually give Mo props on that one; he got Holliday for Wallace (who was going to be stuck behind mang) + others. Everyone was upset because they saw Wallace as the 3B of the future, but apparently Mo was right in believing it wasn’t possible.

by Cybit on Dec 16, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions  

Well, it remains to be seen whether Mo accurately judged his ability to stick at 3B

But it also isn’t enough to say, “well, since he can’t play 3B, dealing him for Holliday was a good move.” What we got in return was less than half a season of a really good left fielder. Perhaps if we held on to Wallace for another year and let him develop into a better hitter, he would have brought a bigger return. I think the opportunity cost of trading Wallace last summer vs. at some point in the future is something that shouldn’t be discounted so easily.

by Ray Lankford on Dec 16, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

i wish we'd gotten cliff lee or halladay or josh johnson for the walrus.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 16, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

This point is key.

Plus I think we probably could have gotten more than Holliday either at the time (Cliff Lee?)or potentially more if we had waited to trade Wallace until later.

Now the DeRosa deal was just plain bad as soon as Todd was named the PTBNL…

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Dec 16, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

WTF?

It’s already 6pm EST and there have been no deals worth writing home about all day. Are these GMs sleeping on the job? Where is my daily blockbuster?

by siddfynch on Dec 16, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions  

Pretty sure it's going to be tweeted tonight at midnight.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

with five or six tweets telling us to get ready

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 16, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Drayton McLane almost sold the Astros

Somebody didn’t read mlbtr very carefully…

MB for LF in 2010!

by guayzimi on Dec 16, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought that was a year ago

We need action! Nao!!1

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Dec 16, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I looked over Chien-Ming's medical stuff,

and suddenly I do not like him to try to come back for us. His shoulder surgery was relatively minor, but I think it’s likely that they didn’t fix the larger, underlying problems. I predicted he’ll probably need another shoulder surgery after the 2010 season based on the fact that shoulder capsule injuries caused by repetitive microtraumas are often present along with labrum tears and impingement syndrome. I’d say there’s a better than even chance Wang has shoulder surgery again within a year.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions  

Why is the Taiwan marching band all wet?

Oh, I know why. Because you just rained on our Chien-Ming Wang parade. Thanks, El Hayez.
But seriously, interesting info. I am always wary of players who are trying to come back by some point after the season starts (I think Wang is shooting for May) based on our experiences with Mulder and Glaus and Clement etc. etc. etc. Shoulder surgery again does not seem fun. I wonder if medical issues will cause the Cards to pass on him.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Dec 16, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

actually

the one thing that will make them pass on him is that he’ snot entirely scrap heap material. He fits their motto guy coming off injury rehabbing with big potential…but unlike others he has actually been a viable starter. His upside is much larger than a Clement.

They will stick to injury projects with little upside. It’s worked the last few years right?

(sarcasm)

I actually if the price were right why not…is an injured Ching any mor eof a gamble than a healthy Pinata when they got him? it’s all about the $$ though

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 16, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Obviously, I can't argue with it if he's free.

I just don’t like his prospects too much.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 16, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Another thing I'm wondering...

was his knee surgery on his left or right knee? If it was on his left knee, I can see that leading to shoulder issues because that’s the leg that he lands on, and if it’s not 95% or better could create some real timing problems. I was thinking about this the other day because he seemed to have trouble keeping the ball down, and that could be from his stride shortening due to a perceived or real weakness in his land leg, which would prevent him from being able to follow through properly on his pitches.

I had an ACL reconstruction a few years ago, and my knee still isn’t the same. I can run and jump ok, but not like I used to, and when I get out of balance on that leg or am supporting my full body over top of it (like when I’m pitching a baseball) something just doesn’t feel right.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I thought he had torn his ACL,

but actually he suffered a right foot and lower leg injury.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 17, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Derek Lowe is not work his salary,

but he’s on the block. I don’t want to pay another Lohse deal, since Lowe isn’t worth the salary he’s making, but if the Braves take on 25% of his contract and we give them Mark Hamilton, that’s probably a good deal, right?

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 17, 2009 5:53 AM EST reply actions  

Hmmmmmm

That would make him a $11M a year pitcher right? That’s a good chunk of change committed to the rotation at that point:

Carp: $14.5M
WW: $4.65M
Lohse: $8.875M
Lowe: $11M
Penny: $7.5M ($9M w/bonuses)
TOTAL: $46.525 in 2010

That looks ok for 2010, but Lohse gets a pretty big raise next year (up to nearly $12M), so does WW (to $6.5M), so we’ll be at about the same number in 2011 as we were in 2010, but without Brad Penny. On the upside, he could be a Bob Welch time reclamation project for Duncan. He wasn’t that bad last year, but with his set of tools, he’s the one guy who could wreak real havoc on a DD staff.

Can Hamilton play LF? With his walk rates in the minors, a Craig/Hamilton platoon, assuming they both tear up spring training, would be a really cheap option for our LF in 2010 or 2011. I guess I’m just not sure if I want to give up on Hamilton yet.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions  

hamilton,craig, jay, mather, greene

hamilton has the best looking swing, i hope they give him an outfield job this year in memphis

I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going

by sportsman on Dec 23, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Whither Freese?

I know Freese was discussed a bit above, but here’s my question about him: even if we do get Holliday, do the Cards HAVE to at least consider bringing in a 3B as insurance? A pattern of bad decisions is emerging with Freese and wouldn’t Mo be remiss if he didn’t at least look at an alternative? Move Craig back to 3B? A FA on a one-year deal? Thoughts, anyone?

"Haywood leads the league in all offensive categories, including nose hair. When this guy sneezes, he looks like a party favor." - Harry Doyle

by Futility Infielder on Dec 17, 2009 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

There is some FAT at 3B out there this year.

If we get Holliday, my choice for a backup plan at 3B would probably be Joe Crede, since we won’t need guaranteed offense at that position and Crede has a very, very good glove. I also think that bringing in Felipe Lopez, as a backup 3B that could also platoon with Skip at 2B wouldn’t be a horrible thing.

I do think that Lugo could fill in at 3B if Freese totally self-destructs, but I think that signing a Joe Crede for 1Y$2M would be a good use of funds. Hell, he might even have a decent offensive season by changing leagues.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

haven't had time to do a real roundup, so for now... BUSTERRRR.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/olney-on-holliday-bay-derosa.html

Olney heard the Red Sox would be interested in signing Matt Holliday at less than the current Cardinals offer. Here’s the question: what exactly did the Cardinals offer to Holliday in guaranteed money and years? $15-16MM a year for up to eight years is pretty vague. Is it just a five-year offer, as Olney suggested a few days ago?
Mark DeRosa’s asking price appears to have come down – Olney says it’s in the three-year, $18MM range. Still seems too pricey, but it’s a step in the right direction.

Other good stuff like Jacolby Raspberry, Valverde, Bay, E Gon probably gone.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 17, 2009 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

Also
  • Dodgers kicking the tires on trading for Aaron Harang. The price seems a little high for the Dodgers…
  • Yankees interested in Nick Johnson, which would probably rule out them signing someone like Damon.
  • Giants looking to deal Johnathan Sanchez and two minor leaguers for Dan Uggla. Seems like too much for a guy entering his second arbitration year, imo, but they are desperate for offense.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

So I presume Nick Johnson would be the Yankees' DH in that scenario?

I wonder if that would help him avoid injuries. Do the Yankees really need an additional near-full season of .420 OBP? Just doesn’t seem fair. Plus I assume the Right Field Wall Of Happiness would help his power somewhat. Damn Yankees.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Dec 17, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That's the speculation

although, if he can stay healthy, he’s a much better defensive first baseman than Tex is, so maybe Tex would DH more.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh

I will take Tex at 1st

by Redbird99_98 on Dec 19, 2009 4:31 AM EST up reply actions  

bah.

http://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/6770397151

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 17, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions  

I trust Boras

as much as I trust a psycho with a nuclear missile.

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 17, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I might not trust a psycho with a nuclear missile,

but I’d sure as hell listen to them and take them seriously.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 17, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

cubs achieve a long awaited goal

http://twitter.com/StoneLarry/status/6802467438

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

WOW.

HENDRY!!!!!!!!!

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 18, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Also,

Jack Z is a knife-wielding ninja assassin cyborg.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 18, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

money money money
Bud Selig has to approve the deal because of the money changing hands. Bradley will make $21MM over the course of the next two seasons and Silva will make $25MM.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

moar comedy

http://twitter.com/dgoold/status/6805309261
http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/6806724979

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

patience, Of the Rose
They’re interested in DeRosa, but Rosenthal hears that his asking price (three years and $18-21MM) is too high for the Yanks.

The Giants are interested in DeRosa, but they plan on waiting the free agent market out in hopes that some bargains appear.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

is this it?

http://riveraveblues.com/2010-draft-order/

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Yup

That’s got it, along with all the adjustments, and the explanations for the adjustments. Thanks.

by siddfynch on Dec 19, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

best news i have heard all offseason

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 18, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

come on now

Cubs acquire Carlos Silva has to be number 1 by a long way.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Ahaha

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 19, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe the term is HFS ®

http://twitter.com/pgammo/status/6803902010

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 18, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions  

Is anyone else worried?

The Yankees are not signing Damon. Are they happy with Melky Cabrera in LF? Does this mean they are going to re-look at Holliday? December 23 is just a few days away! Could this all be part of a fiendish plan by Sarob? Where will Damon end up? Perhaps Brian Sabean has one more big overpayment left in him and both JD and MH will get their outrageous contracts.

Please tell me i am getting myself all worked up over nothing. But I’m reading that Yankees are interested in DeRosa because he can play left field. What???? If they are looking for a LF there is someone else who ……..No I can’t go on. It would be too sad for words.

by spfldbird on Dec 18, 2009 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

I think the Yankees want to save

their money and the actual LF opening for 2010. Then they can go for the actual big fish like Crawfor, Werth, and maybe even Mauer.

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 18, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

yes you are, stop worring

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 18, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Sort of old news (by twitter standards)

but GAWW!!STAB has a blog and will be “doing it all season.” I don’t know which season he’s talking about though.

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 18, 2009 11:04 PM EST reply actions  

the previous entry is called

“My Wedding and a Trip to Prison”

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 18, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

isn't that the same thing?

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 18, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions  

to some, yes

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm stealing that

I’m not into fantasy handegg, but I’ve heard about that fantasy football league for years.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions  

It seems better written than most MLB player blogs,

which are mostly short declarative sentence after short declarative sentence.
I think J-Rod’s was the worst (sorry, J-Rod). It was seriously like “It was great to win the World Series. Everyone played great. I had a great time.”

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions  

almost all their twitters are still Bible study, though.

it’s true.

posted:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/12/19/1208305/my-fantasy-football-team-has-been

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...I know. *sigh*

Jeremy Affeldt likes to get philosophical (quotes implied).

I thought you usually credited me when you stole from me. /pretend frown

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah, it's SBN

won’t let me edit

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions  

that's the working title on bobby brown's autobiography, i think.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 19, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Nice--but there would have to be more than one trip to prison

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions  

dunno if you caught the Boog thread

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/12/17/1204355/hollidays-mystery-suitor-baltimore#27310179

If you haven’t already, those couple of thousand comments around Colby’s kid are right up your alley. Or… a less inappropriate idiom, I can’t think of another.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Haha nice! I missed that.

I’ve been away from VEB for a bit and it seems so daunting to catch up on 6000 comments, but I know I’ll miss something good if I don’t read them all.

Colby—actual kid, or were we messing with cgirl?

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

only asking because cursory internet search turned up nothing substantive

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions  

dude.

actual kid.

okay, you’ll like this. in the span of 24 hours, Strauss yanked our chain (the first time) about there being news at midnight, which turned out to be David Freese’s DWI (holy shit I’m glad I wasn’t driving around there that night).

in commenting about Freese, Rasmus Sr said something about his boys having their heads on straight, especially Colby who was a new dad. it all connects! it’s like Wallace going to the Blue Jays, it’s a circle of life.

classic VEB threads. too many new memes to count. don’t miss the melding of Joe Strauss and Colby… sure to leave anyone queasy and uncomfortable but so, so funny. well worth the load time.

start around where mattyp says he’s bored and nothing’s happening and just keep reading till you run out. only by last night’s Star Wars themed overflow did we slow down.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 19, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions  

That was well worth the 45 minutes I just spent on it

I did catch some of it, on and off, during the week (I was following it on twitter as well so I could sort of fill in the blanks). That’ll teach me to have actual things to do instead of catching up on my favorite blog.

"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog

"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009

by andi_k on Dec 19, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Milton Bradley Traded

Good morning, Cardinal fans. What did my eyes witness on the Internets this morning? Milton Bradley, perpetual problem child has been traded to the Cubs for Carlos Silva, he of the ridiculously bad contract.

Any thoughts on this? Do the Cubs actually get BETTER by the loss of MB? Did anyone see this coming?…

by JWO on Dec 19, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions  

no, they get a lot worse

by trading a solid OF with a broken relationship with the organisation for a replacement-level SP at pretty much the same price.

Delicious.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 19, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

quick roundup

Without the bits in the main posts, like what the Reds did now. Or what the Brewers been doing, because that was starting to bore me.

Matt Capps – Cubs, Nationals; finalists for his services. did have preliminary discussions with the Cubs
Mike Lowell – torn radial collateral ligament on the right thumb. deal: off.
Jon Garland – Nationals, serious negotiations

And: damn you, Buster.

Olney says that Johnny Damon might be a perfect fit for the Cardinals, who continue to talk with Matt Holliday.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 20, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions  

F that Buster

Damon ain’t perfect for the NL dumbass

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 20, 2009 1:20 AM EST up reply actions  

When Capps goes to the Cubs

will the deal be reported as “Cubs promote CL Matt Capps from their Pittsburgh AAA affiliate”?

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 20, 2009 3:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Holliday ruining my holidays

I keep refreshing mlbtr hoping there’ll be something, anything. Movement! ((It’s not unlike constipation. Which, yeah, nuts can do that to some people…))

Instead, it’s just Coco Crisp going to the A’s.

Take a break from changing diapers and decide something, Matthew.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 20, 2009 1:23 AM EST reply actions  

Legos sell a ton during the hollidays

so maybe he’s busy?

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 20, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

What about Lowell?

RedSox are giving him away like Lugo. Sounds like we can get him for B prospect. Let Mr Freeze play for 1-2 months while Lowell rehabs and then platoon them — I lke Lowell. He’s had some physical problems but watching him up here every night, he’s a gamer.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 20, 2009 5:51 PM EST reply actions  

i'd wait till after he's cut on before i talked to them again

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 20, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions  

he's not healthy

I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to play 3B at all next year. That said, if they’re prepared to dump him for nothing, I’d look into it.

A Lowell/Freese “platoon” makes little sense as they’re both righties. I’d guess IF Lowell rehabs OK and can hit a lick, he’s probably likely to come back (in our team) as the everyday 3B, or to play every other day or something whilst being our main RH PH.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 21, 2009 6:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Are we there yet?

The first thing every morning when I wake up I look to see if Matt Holliday is in my christmas stocking. Thats’ what I want for Christmas. Come on Boras, it’s time to cave in.

well I said a lot more here about Boras and the market for Holliday but I don’t want to jinx things so I took it out.

by spfldbird on Dec 21, 2009 8:06 AM EST reply actions  

Any news on Mather's rehab?

Will he be able to go at ST? I hope the guy’s in the mix for a reserve spot this year.

by gocards62 on Dec 21, 2009 8:20 AM EST reply actions  

he took the field in late 2009 for springfield. he's well enough to run and hit.

the question is whether he’ll be able to hit well enough to play at a ML level. we won’t know that until ST or maybe later.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 21, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Chris Duncan - 4 teams, interest

http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2009/dec/20/inside-baseball-chris-duncan-wants-let-his-bat-do-/

Axisa of mlbtr wants to see a brother duo activate

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 21, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions  

A Duncatoon, as it were

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 21, 2009 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I like where this thread is going.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 21, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Shelley Duncan has a crazy good projection from CHONE

I dunno where that’s going (or even where it comes from, save having a strong year at AAA in 2009), but he’s regarded as something like the 4th best offensive free agent, according to that system, anyhow. I’d take with a large pinch of salt personally, but there might be something in it.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Any news on price for Ankiel?

I know he gets a lot of hate here, but wouldn’t he be a good fourth outfielder for us? He can play all three spots, probably can’t be worse than last year, and still has some upside if he can pull it all together. At this point, I’m wondering whether he will get more than 2/14 or 1/9.

Put another way, at what price would you have him back as a fourth outfielder?

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 21, 2009 8:20 PM EST reply actions  

not at either of those prices, unless the terms are expressed in $100,000's.

rick ankiel is different from a lot of options in LF because his skillset suggests that 2009 was not an aberration, but a typical result. he just has horrendous plate judgment and poor contact skills.

while he may do better than 2009, i wouldn’t count on him to become a .270/.360/.480 hitter. his upside is probably seeing his SLG and his ISO come back to an okay level, but i think his OBP and AVG will remain low. that would be okay if he were a real CF, but now he’s basically a pretty good corner OF. he could be an okay 4th OF on those terms, but there’s better stuff out there. i would be annoyed if we gave him more than $2M/yr.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 21, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I would be more than annoyed if he was a Cardinal for pretty much any terms.

It’s just time for Ricky to leave the nest.

Now with extra feisty!

by spants on Dec 21, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I'd throw out 2009

and give him a 1 year deal assuming he will improve on his 2007/2008 path. Granted Rick just may be a head case, but it just seemed like he wasn’t right last year. If he were to come back to the promise he showed (both at the plate and in the field), he’d be a nice pickup. I’m an optimist on Rick and think he can’t be half as bad as he was last year. If he cratered by mid year, you can cut him loose. I say there is much more upside than downside with him and TLR likes him, which helps.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 21, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

TLR likes him, which helps.

that might be the opposite of help. It definitely doesn’t help the team when Tony will insist putting him out there even if he isn’t right, and it probably doesn’t help Rick either.

Spants is right. For all parties involved, it is probably best that we see if Rick’s wings are healed when he flies away.

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 21, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

and if not, and he crashes into another wall, there's nothing we can do about it

it’s just natural selection taking charge & doing what it do

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 21, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

since 2009 accounts for about 40% of his professional playing time, just throwing it out seems like a bad idea

unless you have some higher thought process than “he just didn’t look right.”

this is concerning to me:

O-swing% (percentage of out-of-zone pitches swung at)

07 – 37.2%
08 – 30.4%
09 – 34.4%

that is a hacktastic hitter right there.

if he doesn’t learn to judge pitches, he’s never going to be really successful.

he didn’t make the qualified list last year, but he would be in the lowest tier of plate discipline with that rate. he also doesn’t make enough contact to justify his hacktasticness – most people who swing that wildly have a tremendous eye and make good contact with out-of-zone pitches.

in that low tier, most players had a 60 or 70% out-of-zone contact rate. the worst contact rate among the 15 players with the highest out of zone swing rate was alfonso soriano with a 54% rate, and we know how good soriano was last year. rick’s out of zone contact rate was 47.7%. you can’t swing at a lot of pitches out of the zone and not be able to hit them.

if you have a bad approach at the plate, it doesn’t mean that a bad year is not representative. it may mean that pitchers have figured that you’ll swing at bad pitches or off-speed pitches and that you can’t hit them. i would wager that rick, while he may improve somewhat on 2009, will still not be a good hitter and will hit worse than his projections.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 21, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

at the very least, he needs a hitting coach who gives him better advice than “Be! Aggressive!!! B-E-Aggresive”!…

OTOH, we have a new hitting coach this year.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Dec 21, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

but it just seemed like he wasn’t right last year.

I think pitchers just figured him out and stopped throwing him anything hittable over the plate. If the guy’s swinging at over a third of pitches off the plate, you might as well just throw those. He’ll strike out a good 30%+ of the time at that rate, and most of the times he makes contact, he’s going to make an out. There is just no reason to ever give him a pitch in the zone.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:21 AM EST up reply actions  

he won't get anywhere near that

i’m thinking 3-4MM over 1-2 years

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 22, 2009 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

He's a left-handed Rob Deer
  1. Swings from heels
  2. Doesn’t walk
  3. Strikes out a ton
  4. When he hits the ball it goes a LONG way.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 22, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Put another way, at what price would you have him back as a fourth outfielder?

Ankiel can’t hit lefties, and never will, so he is a platoon partner for someone in a corner spot.

Given that there are several players who project better in 2009 for that role (Hinske, Church, Gross, Cust, etc etc) who are all probably available dirt cheap, I wouldn’t want Ankiel at all, for any price. Gabe Gross is a better fielder, and will probably put up similar offensive value (albeit with more OBP and less power) and is likely to sign somewhere for the league minimum, or thereabouts. I’d rather have him.

Jeff Fiorentino, who profiles to be as valuable as Ankiel, recently signed to play in Hiroshima (lovely city btw, comes with a high Monk recommendation) in NPB.

I think Ank is a good bounceback candidate and could be worth more than 1 win as a lefty platoon guy/4th OF, but he’s had the misfortune to be one of those players in a winter in which there’s about half a dozen of them all looking for jobs.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm tainted because I love the Ankiel story

so I’ll admit to non-rational bias, but Ankiel does have some unique characteristics. First of all, he’s a CF (or can play CF) which is a good feature in a fourth OF. Second, his hitting was abysmal last year, but I’d be willing to be the crash into the OF wall had something to do with that. At least the Cards would be in the best position to understand that dynamic. I think back to how hard it was for Edmunds to bounce back after a couple of his collisions and think that Ankiel just needs a winter of rest.

Finally, he’s still learning on the job. Not many minor leaguers get to the Show with so few professional at-bats so I’m willing to bet he’s still got upside on the learning curve. No ones thinks he can learn better discipline? Maybe McGwire can bring him a different approach.

All the comments on his stats are spot on and there is no saber-argument for having him back, but if the goal is to try to get some upside as opposed to plugging some gaps, Ank has more potential for upsdie than anyone else out we could hire. If the market collapses to the point where you can get him for peanuts, then I’d be even more willing.

Rick seems to struggle handling pressure so perhaps spot starting him, using him against righties, and minimizing his high leverage opportunities will lead to some better results. I have to say I am really surprised that people wouldn’t want him at any price — that’s a harsh assessment after a year with a pretty serious head injury.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 22, 2009 7:23 AM EST up reply actions  

I have to say I am really surprised that people wouldn’t want him at any price

My reasoning for this is that I simply think there are better options available for nothing (or similar to ank). Gabe Gross is a similar player to Ank – he’s a guy who’ll hit double-digit home runs as a platoon player with a low batting average, although he only slugs about .400 for his career (a bit less than hammerin’ ank), but he can take a walk (career 12% BB rate). All in all, his offensive stats are in the Ankiel range – career wOBA of .325 and .327 respectively, Ank was .288 last year to Gross’s .306. Both are probably due a bit of an uptick in their offense this year, and both are (overall) slightly below-average hitters, at best.

Gross is a platoon guy, too – career .346 OBP and .414 SLG against right-handed pitching. Ankiel, again, is a platoon guy, with a worse OBP and more power – .320 OBP and .462 SLG against right-handed pitching. Overall, this makes Gross a slightly better hitter of RHP, and (again) he was slightly better last year.

Gross is a superlative fielder. He has good range, and (like Ank) a very fine arm. UZR (over a BIG sample size) reckons he’s worth in the 15-20 runs ABOVE average range in the corners. He’s rated slightly above average in CF too.

Ankiel is merely a good fielder. He’s athletic, has a strong arm, but he does take slightly funky routes to the ball, and probably isn’t suited to CF except as an occasional choice there. UZR likes him in the corners (in a small sample size, he’s in the range of 5-10 runs above average in LF or RF, so, not as good as Gross), less so in CF (he’s close to 10 runs over a full season BELOW average, due to his poor range rating).

So, Gross is a better fielder, and a better hitter, as a part-time/platoon outfielder. He’s projected to be slightly better next year. Even if Ank has a rebound (which I think he will), the likelihood seems to be that he’ll be equivalent to Gabe Gross, with a small chance of being somewhat better. The only area he really beats him is that he has more power (although he actually didn’t this last year).

Here’s the kicker – Gross was non-tendered by the Rays, one year after earning $1.8m as a platoon player. He’s now a free agent. Care to guess what he might make in 2010? I’m guessing it won’t exceed $2m, and could well be nearer the league minimum.

For Gabe Gross, I could just as easily have chosen Ryan Church, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Langerhans (all near league minimum), or even Eric Hinske (probably won’t exceed $3m), Jack Cust (great bat, no glove, probably won’t exceed $4m). All these guys are corner-outfield LH platoon-types who profile to be equivalent to or better than Ankiel in value, even if Ankiel has some sort of rebound.

This is why he just has little to no value – there are better options, and a LOT of them, on the free agent market. These guys are available for peanuts NOW, and it doesn’t even need the market to collapse. This is why paying pretty much anything for Ank would be foolish, and why anything like $7m would be a crazy amount. My betting is that he’ll latch on somewhere on a 1yr/$2-3m sort of deal, which would be about fair, given that he’s a replacement-level player who has some upside. For that money, however, I’d rather have any of the above options (with the possible exception of Langerhans, but he’ll probably only get $500k anyhow), as they’re all better right now, and likely to be better next year.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions  

adendum

Kelly Johnson will probably get significantly more than the league minimum. Maybe put him in the group of guys in the $3-4m range.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 8:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Hmmmmm
All in all, his offensive stats are in the Ankiel range – career wOBA of .325 and .327 respectively, Ank was .288 last year to Gross’s .306. Both are probably due a bit of an uptick in their offense this year, and both are (overall) slightly below-average hitters, at best.

I agree on Gross — I think last year was probably a down year, especially considering his walk rate, and that he’s probably due to rebound to somewhere near his career average. But Ankiel? Show me one good reason why his numbers should improve next year. Outside “he might finally be 100% healthy” or “he might play in Japan”, there really isn’t one. His strike zone judgment is awful, as tom s pointed out. If you were a pitcher, wouldn’t you just throw him offspeed shit in the dirt and watch him swing over it every time he stepped in the box? Seriously — Vlad Guerrero didn’t swing at as much garbage as Ankiel did last year, and he’s a good garbage ball hitter!

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 22, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

But Ankiel? Show me one good reason why his numbers should improve next year.

Career HR/FB: 14.7%
2009 HR/FB: 8.9%

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Ankiel

I base my logic on the simple fact that he has had to have his minor league career at the major league level. Most new players have significantly more time in the minors AND will have played that position in their college and high school days. Rick was a pitcher primarily.

He had all of 800 minor league PAs before he came up and all those swings came at levels higher than a normal rookie would have been at. Even today, he has had less PAs in his professional career than Colby Rasmus. In a normal career path he would now be a strong AAA player or potentially knocking on the door of the big leagues. But because he has had this strange glide path to the Cardinals, we think he is done.

Further the issue of taking bad routes again is probably more lack of experience than being a bad CF.

The arguments that he has bad discpline, chases pitches, and runs bad routes are rooted in lack of experience. In my view these are all correctable flaws.

I’d like to see him for another full season before passing judgement, especially if he can be had for song. The facts are on your side, but Rick is not a typical player.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 22, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

The arguments that he has bad discpline, chases pitches, and runs bad routes are rooted in lack of experience. In my view these are all correctable flaws.

They might seem correctable, but for the vast majority of players, it’s easier to develop almost any skills other than batting eye and plate discipline. Ankiel has neither, and most likely will never develop any. Many prominent busts have been such because they lacked the ability to distinguish pitches and the discipline to lay off.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Dec 22, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

And by "career"

you mean that inflated number due to 17.7% HR/FB in 2008 and 20.1% HR/FB in 2007? Do you think that’s his real talent level? I sure as hell don’t. League average HR/FB is about 10% or so, which leaves him a little room to improve, sure, but since his only inherent offensive value is hitting home runs, he’s going to have to get back to 15% or so to have any offensive value at all, which means an ISO of probably .250 or better. There aren’t many superstar players that have that type of ISO, so expecting it from Ankiel is really stretching the bounds of the imagination.

His ISO dropped 100 points last year, his K-rate went up, his BB rate went down, and he only puts 1 out of every 8 balls he swings at in play. That’s pretty awful.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 22, 2009 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

i think the evidence by stats is almost overwhelming that 2007-08 was more "fluky" for

ankiel than 2009. he’s not going to be a 15% hr/fb guy. he’s not going to hit for average with a 16% LD rate.

i think the best situation for ankiel would be in a park that played to his strengths – someone made the comment about yankee stadium part deux being a good fit for him. that sounds right to me. GABP might be another.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 22, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions  

My simple argument

is that he has been taking his minor league swings in the glare of major league spotlight. He has so few professional plate appearances (and probably amatuer as well) that juding him on the metrics we judge most players may not work. I am not doubting the horrible stats —I am doubting the usefulness of the interpretation. Hazel may be right and he has holes that can’t be fixed.

We’ll see soon enough —he’ll pay somewhere this year.

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 22, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

you mean that inflated number due to 17.7% HR/FB in 2008 and 20.1% HR/FB in 2007? Do you think that’s his real talent level? I sure as hell don’t.

I don’t know. It could be. I certainly think his true level is well above 8% because he hits the ball hellishly hard when he squares up to it.

I think he was a little unlucky on BABIP, a little unlucky on HR/FB, and his BB rate fell from both his previous years, which suggests something wasn’t quite right about his pitch recognition and that (as he’s done it before) he might walk a bit more next year. Also, as The Duke said, he did have a major injury that can’t have helped.

I’m not saying Ankiel is going to be good. As I argued earlier, I think he is going to continue to be poor/below-average and no more than a so-so platoon piece for someone. But I think a rebound of sorts is likely.

I think he’s not a true talent .285 OBP, .387 SLG guy. I think in 2010 we see a “rebound” to .310, .450, something like that. Pretty poor, but not quite as abysmal and probably useful somewhere.

Also, regarding his contact and swing numbers – I was actually surprised to see that pitchers didn’t throw him more stuff outside the zone in 2009 than they had in 08 or 07 (although they may have refined the pitch types they used, I guess pitchFX could answer that), in fact, he had the highest % of balls in the strike zone of his career (still well below league average, which shows that teams have always recognised he’s a chaser). Also, he wasn’t swinging at much more outside the zone than usual. The only thing that went down was his out of zone contact , from about 55 to about 48%. The question is – is that due to something he did (i.e. pressing too much, some mechanical issue, or a coordination problem thanks to his head injury) and thus correctable, or is it because pitchers worked something out (i.e. throw more stuff down & away or very high outside the zone), making him chase further and further than usual?

Like I say, some pitchFX on Ankiel would be really worth looking into. I might speak to VEP and see if he can put something together. I think the “can he rebound” question could be answered by seeing if his reduction in OOZ contact % is something he’s doing, or something pitchers are doing.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

PItch F/X on Ankiel

Here you go

Look at the whiff rates on breaking pitches — over 20% for both. Now that wouldn’t be terrible….except that he swings at them more than 50% of the time. If he took more breaking pitches and sat on fastballs he’d be a better hitter. If he took more balls out of the zone and looked only for fastball strikes he’d be a better hitter. Unfortunately, I don’t see either of those things happening, for one, and nearly every pitcher is going to throw him a steady dose of breaking stuff if he shores up his discipline, because he simply isn’t good at hitting breaking balls.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 22, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

very nice

but that’s not what I asked about at all. It doesn’t tell us anything about the big reason why Ank suffered last year, i.e. his reduced contact rate on balls out of the zone.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 23, 2009 5:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Here's a plot broken down by quadrants then

with the same data.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 23, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

what I meant was

to show this

the big reason why Ank suffered last year, i.e. his reduced contact rate on balls out of the zone.

we need to COMPARE what he was doing and what pitchers were throwing him last year to what happened in the two years when he was a productive hitter.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 23, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

The last site I linked to doesn't have 2008 data

and I don’t know how to graphically represent the raw data in a form that makes sense. We’ll have to leave that to VEP or Harry P as they are a lot better at that stuff than I am.

If I could take a wild stab though….pitchers seem to be throwing him a lot more breaking pitches low and away in 2009 than in 2008 and 2007, and he’s swinging and missing at a lot more of those judging by the graphs in the first link. Pitchers have figured out that he can’t hit those pitches with regularity and that he also can’t lay off those pitches when they are out of the zone, so they’re throwing him more of them.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 23, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Or...

you could put together a How To on plotting pitch f/x data.

I tried a couple of times and ended up with a mess. It’s been a long, long time since I had to mess around with graphs in Excel.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 23, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought the problem was that you didn't have 2008 data

Which won’t be solved by excel ;). Plotting data is just for aesthetics, it doesn’t really tell you much. You have to look at the raw data for that. And given that sheer amount of raw data, you really need a relational database to sort through it.

I could give you all of the data and tell you how to plot in excel if you want though.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 23, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Here is my thesis that is largely unpresentable without pitchFX data....

1) Rick Ankiel sucked in 2009
2) Rick Ankiel was quite good in 2008 and 2007
3) Looking at Fangraphs, his K% went up a tick and his BB% down a tick. Obviously that’s partly due to something he’s doing.
4) Digging further into his contact and swing numbers, his Out of Zone (OOZ) swing % was only a tiny bit higher than his career previously. His in-zone swing % was only a tiny bit lower. The NUMBER of pitches he received in and out of the zone was pretty much the same as it was in 08 and 07, so pitchers weren’t throwing MORE pitches outside. HOWEVER, his OOZ contact% was CONSIDERABLY worse (it was down like 5-6%, which is massive).
5) So, Rick Ankiel’s big problem (I think) was not that he was swinging at more pitches, or that he was receiving more pitches out of the zone. It was that he was making much, much worse contact on pitches out of the zone.
6) I’m wondering how much of that is down to something Ankiel did (i.e. is it correctable?) and how much is down to whether pitchers threw him DIFFERENT stuff out of the zone (as a result of scouting and adjusting to his style) to make that happen.
7) So, I’d like to see exactly how and where Ankiel was whiffing on those OOZ pitches in 2009 compared to 2007/08. Ideally, I’d like to know whether the OOZ pitches were further off the plate, on average (i.e. pitchers know he’ll chase on a certain count, so threw him a higher % of pitches that were, say, 9 inches or greater away from the strike zone), whether there was a different composition of pitch types (i.e. did pitchers realise he specifically can’t hit high fastballs, or low-away sliders, and threw him an increased percentage of those two pitch types?), whether there was a certain pitch he struggled on. It would be nice to breakdown the OOZ “whiff” pitches by pitch type and pitch location between the two years, and see percentage figures for each, as well as percentage figures for, say, the pitches he made contact with. Also, for the 47.7% of OOZ pitches he made contact with, were the results any different from the 53% of OOZ pitches he made contact with in 07/08? Did he hit more GB, does that tell us anything about what he was doing wrong?

Basically, maybe some pretty pitchFX graphs, but mostly, a table split between 2007/08 on one side and 2009 on the other. For the two groups, show the percentage of OOZ pitches of each type (FB, cutter, slider, change etc etc) he received for each year, and show the whiff % (i.e. contact %) for each, plus maybe the % of each pitch type that turned into GB, FB and LD, maybe. See if there’s a difference. Then do the same table, but instead of pitch types, subdivide each year by pitch location (down/away, up/in etc.) and perhaps by distance off the plate. Finally, you could subdivide the OOZ pitches by their distance outside the zone (<3 inches, 3-6 inches, 6-9 inches, 9-12 inches etc etc) and see what % of the pitches fall into each category, and what % of those he was whiffing on, again splitting the data into two sets, one for 2007/08 and one for 2009.

Basically, I think Ank (for some reason) made weaker contact with OOZ pitches last year, which was the primary correctable reason behind his downfall. I’d like to know exactly where that weakness lay, whether it was general or quite specific, and whether we think it might be correctable (i.e. how much was due to pitchers pitching to a better gameplan, and how much was due to Ank’s poor approach/injury/whatever).

I know that’s a lot to take in but I think it might be a worthwhile exercise – if you’re looking at getting stats jobs somewhere for a MLB team I suspect this is sort of in-depth meta analysis they’d be interested in, that could help a player in the long term. Just an idea of mine anyhow.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 24, 2009 5:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Why don't I just give you the data and you could look into it yourself?

I really don’t have time, sorry.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmhtqthzQ8zFdFExdkxqdk41Zk1hOEo2a1BXeFRfT2c&hl=en

H and V mov refer to the movement of each pitch. H and V pos refer to the vertical and horizontal location of each pitch. You can make a scatter plot of pitch location in Excel using H-pos as the x-axis and V-pos as the y-axis. For reference, the strikezone to lefties is between 1.5 and 3.5 V-Pos and -1.2 and .825 H-Pos.

The pDes is the pitch description and the aDes is the at bat description.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2009 1:35 AM EST up reply actions  

i have

an ankiel #24 jersey and once considered him on par with waino as my favorite player. still really like the guy. that said, i would greatly prefer to see him in a city other than st louis in ‘10. it would be better for him and the team. tlr didn’t do him any favors in ‘09 in my opinion and bringing him back will keep him from realizing his potential. he didn’t exactly seem happy with his role in st louis last year anyway

Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.

by prophetjohn on Dec 22, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions  

actually, a year in japan might not be a bad thing for rick, come to think of it.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 22, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

So's headed back, isn't he?

I smell reality show

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

that's a great idea. so shows rick around, gets him the squid-on-a-stick at the ballpark.

teaches him how to appreciate japanese culture. i smell money!

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 22, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

so maybe they're just ©ursed

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/four-team-salary-dump-trade-fell-through.html

Pat the Bat and Castillo to the small bears… oh well… so much for that…

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 21, 2009 8:55 PM EST reply actions  

glad that fell through

that could possibly have been an upgrade for chicago, instead of the probable downgrade they eventually achieved.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Dec 21, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

I’d imagine Burrell could possibly rake in Wrigley. Castillo seems a decent fit for them too, although I imagine it’d be mostly as a backup – they seem to want to move Theriot to 2B and call up Castro this season to play SS, which makes a lot of sense defensively.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 6:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Although it states

that Burrell would have been swapped elsewhere in that post. Castillo would be an upgrade for them at second base though, and they wouldn’t have Silva’s awful contract weighting them down.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 22, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

will the Nats signing Jason Marquis attract John Smoltz to them?
Jason Marquis signing, noting that Marquis has more career victories than the other starters on the Washington 40-man roster combined.

discuss.

in the meantime
Mike Rivera – Yankees, signed

Javier Vasquez and his whole contract, and Boone Logan – Yankees, back to ’em for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino

Brandon Morrow – Blue Jays, rumored for Brandon Morrow and a prospect – Marlins
Most likely, yes, Brett Wallace will NOT not play 3B for his fourth team in one year.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions  

oh well

Holliday to the Yankees then. Sigh.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Brandon Morrow – Blue Jays, rumored for Brandon Morrow and a prospect – Marlins

This had me really confused. This is nothing to do with the Marlins – the physical is taking place in Florida because that’s where Toronto have their ST camp and it’s near home for Morrow.

Morrow is going to the BlueJays
Brandon League (a pretty good young reliever) + a prospect (not Wallace) is going back to Seattle.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

sorry, I'm mistyping like crazy

Brandon League, not Morrow
Mariners, not Marlins

it’s all in the water, damn it

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

let's see if I can get through this roundup

all rumors / unconfirmed
Harangodgers still floating around; Reds want Sherrill … fair warning, links to * and has a handsome picture
Rockies might extend Carlos Gonzalez
Yankees want to trade out Chad Gaudin or Sergio Mitre twit

And among the many items of non-interest
Joel Piñeiro – Mets, no interest
and this gem

#Yankees say Melky departure does not open door to Damon nor put Bay/Holliday in play. Still saying all too expensive
rrriiiight

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 11:35 AM EST reply actions  

well, given that they now have NO left fielder at all

one of them is ending up in the Bronx, surely.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

there is a slim chance

Bay’s agent blinks first and lowers his price within the Yankee’s range. since, y’know, his agent isn’t Scott Boras.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

the yanks should be more interested in bay than the mets, b/c the yanks can always slide bay into the DH slot

when he gets older (after nick johnson leaves); a four or five year contract shouldn’t be as scary to them.

the mets run the risk of having a $15M/yr pinch hitter in the last year or so of his contracts.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 22, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Bay's agent is Joe Urbon

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

unless you're saying Joe Urbon's agent is..... Scott Boras!

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I heard this on the radio

and i’m thinking lego in the bronx

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 22, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Orioles finalize with Atkins
The Orioles signed corner infielder Garrett Atkins to a one-year, $4.5MM deal today. He has an $8.5MM club option for 2011 with a $500K buyout. Atkins can earn up to $500K in incentives in 2010.

Holliday’s going there for sure!!!

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 22, 2009 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

garret atkins - $8.5M option. HAHAHAHAHAHA! who is paying that out?

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 22, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

just what I was thinking

what a waste of ink.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 22, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Santa to Atlanta!

To play first base.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 23, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

Nice ring to it

Atlanta is the home of Coca Cola too! Makes perfect sense.

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 25, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions  

big splash?

i was wondering on the way home or should i say thinking about the Lego issue. It seems the last few yrs the Cards are in on names and lose out and do little to address other needs.

I have heard little about bringing DeRo back. They did get Penny but I hope that they aren’t so focused on Lego that they can’t fill other needs, and then he signs elsewhere and there is nothing left but in house young guys or Thursty types.

They traded away some good pieces so I would hope they try to sign a few guys for solid back up roles etc…or say a 3B.

As I said this seems to have happened at least the last 2 yrs if not more. I can’t see how you get better by just letting the chips fall and go for thirds and fourths.

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 23, 2009 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

right now the cards have made the only known offer to matt holliday.

the only other team to lay out that kind of cash so far to a FA to common knowledge was BOS for lackey.

the cards sold out the cream of their farm this summer to land two of the best pieces on the trade market.

i think it’s very selective memory that would make you say that we wait for the dregs of the market as a general rule. there have been players we’ve missed out on. but i don’t see a general trend of cheaping out as a trend. if anything the club has been too aggressive in making offers to holliday and in trading for holliday and derosa.

you also have to realize that the player market is going through a readjustment as teams begin to realize that these huge deals tend to backfire on teams and hamstring them (see zito, rowand, vernon wells, alfonso soriano, carlos lee, miguel tejada, derek lowe, jeff suppan, etc.). avoiding the overaggressive market in 2006 and 2007 is part of why we are better positioned to win than the cubs and the astros right now. shelling out money can be a route to winning, but only when done carefully.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 23, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

the player market is going through a readjustment

+1

BALLS OF STEEL, MO!!

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 23, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

no i totally agree about

not overspending and doing it carefully. My problem is i hear them linked to nothing else. If they are going to go young I think a proven vet backup is needed. A solid utility guy if the young guys struggle. Not sure who that is.

My memory however isn’t too selective this has happened on more than one off season, which I fear is becoming the trend. If They still had a decent farm which is bare as you mentioned I wouldn’t be as concerned.

I agree on selectiveness I guess i just get concerned when we hear nothing.

This guys so good(Pujols) He should be illegal-Pirates announcers

by punchinjudy on Dec 23, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

there's just not a wealth of players out there worth going all-out for.

holliday is the only legit 5-6 WAR player. lackey is a 3-4 WAR pitcher; bay is a 3-4 WAR OF who is asking for way too much; figgins was a 3-4 WAR 3b. nobody else really seems likely to be worth more than 3 WAR.

damon or felipe lopez or beltre could be close to 3 WAR; we may yet get in on one of those players if we miss out on holliday.

also, don’t ignore the penny signing; that was a good chunk of change on a high profile player.

My daddy told me, lookin' back, The best friend you'll have is a railroad track So when I was 13 said, I'm rollin' my own, And I'm leavin' Missouri and I'm never comin' home . . . Now I woke me up with a cardinal bird, And when I wanna talk, He hangs on every word. . . And I'm lost at the bottom of the world. - Tom Waits

by tom s. on Dec 23, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions  

right now the cards have made the only known offer to matt holliday.

Boston made him an offer too.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 24, 2009 6:01 AM EST up reply actions  

some roundup

I’m effin’ sleepy so let’s hope I get the A-’s straight

Mark DeRosa – Giants, offer of 2/$12m
Fernando Rodney – Angels, 2/$11m done pending phys.
Coco Crisp – A’s, 1/$5.25m
Matt Capps – Nationals, deal is either really on or probably not.
Octavio Dotel – Pirates, offered maybe $3m + incentives
mystery relief pitcher … maybe Danys Baez – Phillies, agreed
Rockies also ISO a closer now that the musical chairs are slowing.

Cashman says he’s not going for a big name in the outfield.

Why don’t we have this….? The Sauks have a clause:

If an old elbow injury forces Lackey to miss significant time over the course of his contract, he’d have to play for the league minimum in 2015.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 23, 2009 7:54 PM EST reply actions  

Dotel makes absolutely zero sense for the Pirates

that’s a real head-scratcher. They’d have been better off just keeping hold of Capps for similar money and looking to deal him if/when his value rebounds a bit.

Still, for maybe $2m+ incentives, I’d be keen on Dotel. I just think he’s been over-paid and is a bit too high-profile for his talent.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 24, 2009 6:04 AM EST up reply actions  

somebody shot down the Dotel talk, I think

the Buccos were in a state of indecision last I checked. Gregg is the other name being tossed out there.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Sox back in the mix. or so they say.

mlbtr
6:48pm: Boston has had internal discussions about extending their organizational budget to potentially allow for another offer to be made to Jason Bay, a team source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The discussed proposal would be in the vicinity of the four-year, $60MM deal originally pitched to the slugger.

It was widely thought that the signings of John Lackey and outfielder Mike Cameron spelled the end of Bay’s tenure with the Red Sox as the club is now teetering on the edge of the $170MM luxury tax threshold.

10:48pm: The Red Sox might also be looking into extending an offer to free agent Matt Holliday, reports Mike Silverman of the Boston Herald. However, Silverman notes that signing Bay, let alone the more expensive Holliday, would be difficult.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 12:28 AM EST reply actions  

what do i keep saying?

it ain’t over, till it’s over. and it’s far from over

Every morning I wake up & smoke a dart. Then I eat five strips of bacon, & for lunch I eat a bacon sandwich. And for a midday snack? Bacon! A whole damn plate! And I usually drink my dinner. And I'm still here! Sometimes I wonder if God forgot about me.

by gdm426 on Dec 24, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions  

I've had drinks with Mike Silverman

dude don’t know crap. He is the Boston Herald’s version of Straussie

Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 24, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions  

it does say 'looking'

that means he checked the cache of their google searches

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I see zero chance of Holliday ending up in beantown

I suspect they’re just doing it to keep the Yankees/whoever honest. Breaking the luxury tax for a guy like that doesn’t make a lot of sense to them IMO, he’s maybe only a 2 win upgrade over Ellsbury.

I could see it being worthwhile if they’re entering a big arms race with the Yankees, I guess – sign Holliday then trade Ellsbury, Buccholz and maybe Bard for Adrian Gonzalez? I actually wonder if that’s even a bit of an overpay for Gonzo, given he’s only got one more year of (relatively) cheap team control (actually, maybe 2… was he a super 2? I’m starting to think he probably was).

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 24, 2009 6:07 AM EST up reply actions  

What does everyone else think Gonzalez is worth?

he’s actually signed him to a deal which keeps him under team control for the next two years and pays ~$5m/yr. That’s pretty amazing value. I’m going to go with my original estimate – from the RedSox perspective, it’ll probably take something like the Ellsbury/Buccholz/Bard deal, although if I was the Padres GM, I’d probably be more inclined to focus on high-ceiling talent that’s a year or two away, as they’re probably not going to contend in the next 2 years so adding anyone who is major-league ready maybe isn’t the best way to do it.

RELEASE THE CENTIQUID!!!!

by Felonius_Monk on Dec 24, 2009 6:14 AM EST up reply actions  

That would seem like a good offer for the Padres

but I disagree with it for a few reasons:
(Disclaimer: I don’t believe the Padres will deal A-Goz for a second)

As a lot of people have said, Ellsbury will be arb eligible, and will command at least what A Gon is being paid. He is a great speed talent, he’s a Carlos Gomez that can actually hit. I think the Red Sox as an organization don’t want to touch him. That’s also why I believe the recent Jason Bay rumors are just to drive up his price.

Bard seems to be completely untouchable. He is to be their closer when Papelbon gets too expensive.

I mean, A-Gon is friggin Joe Mauer to San Diego. Born and raised in San Diego, and is paid 5 million(roughly) a year for an insane amount of production. The Padres can take whomever the hell they want from the Sawx system to get him, even if it includes Kelly, Westmoreland and Buccholz.

Anyway, if I were the Padres, I would ask for what i said above, take it or leave it. If I am the Padres, I also have EVERY intention to sign him long term, no matter how crippling it is long term. In 2008, the Padres payroll was around 74 million, which would be enough to sustain the 20-25 million a year contract(Perhaps including the hometown discount) that A-Gon could garner.

Sorry if I went too far away from what Gonzalez is worth, but I think that it somewhat connects ;).

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 25, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions  

but what is he really worth?

He’s been a 3-4 win player before last year. Last year he was worth more than that. Can the Padres afford to risk paying a guy who might be a 3-4ish win player, or who might be a 6 win player, $20M/year?

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Dec 25, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

They have to

He is the crowd attraction, he sells tickets, and without him, that team doesn’t have a SINGLE person who is worth going to the stadium for. The monetary losses that the Padres would sustain due to his departure would be catastrophic. He’s the heart and soul of that franchise.

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 25, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

well, ok

but even IF he’s a 6 win player, can SD afford to give him $20M/year? I think the answer is probably “no”.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Dec 26, 2009 3:39 AM EST up reply actions  

He has 1 year under contract for 4.75

and a club option for 5.5.

My halloween costume: the Indiana secondary iPhone- no matter how much you want to love it, you know the coverage area sucks.
-ChronicHoosier

by Taskmaster on Dec 25, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions  

This signals to me

that Boston thinks that Holliday might be significantly cheaper than they considered originally. Before, you heard them talking about giving Bay $12M for 5 years or so, and vehemently deny having interest in Holliday. Now that Matt might be available for $16M per season, why WOULDN’T you pay a couple of million more for him instead of Jason Bay?

I think Bay is going to fuck himself out of a good contract by holding out for more than 4Y$55M or 5Y$70M because teams will just look at paying a little extra for Holliday, who is a superior player in nearly every facet of the game.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 27, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The Nats are using their superior leverage

to prolong talks with Matt Capps! Those bastards.

…no they’re not. But the agreement ain’t there. haha.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 8:30 AM EST reply actions  

it's on again

Matt Caps – Nationals, 1y/3.5m + $425K in performance incentives for games finished

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Capps

f’n SBN

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 24, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

What they won't do to sell newspapers

Boston or the Yankees might possibly be interested in Holliday if a nearly impossible sequence of events occurs, maybe, sorta. I was hoping that Matt Holliday would be wrapped in Cardinal red under the Christmas tree but as long as Boras has any hope at all, it won’t happen.

I’ll be back again tomorrow morning to check things out. . Ya’ll have a great Christmas eve.

by spfldbird on Dec 24, 2009 9:28 AM EST reply actions  

Minaya in on Holliday

Mets apparently realizing they can’t sign Bay. I think a couple extra million for holliday is no big deal so if Cards were thinking they had a clear path — think again. Not sure why Mets wouldn’t focus more on pitchers like Piniero. Seems like you would want to surround Santana with a better rotation — but Minaya needs to sign big names to keep media happy.

If holliday holds out past spring training, when do the draft choices fall away, if ever?

Just win

by The Duke on Dec 27, 2009 5:10 PM EST reply actions  

I think that he's got to stay a FA past June 1st

after that, there’s not draft pick compensation as the draft would be looming a week or so away.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 27, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

the link

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/mets-notes-holliday-rotation.html

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 27, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

DeRosa

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/the-latest-on-mark-derosa.html

The above article claims that Mark DeRosa is leaning toward accepting the giants 2yr/12m offer. If this is what it takes would it be so bad to sign him and still stay “in” on Holiday?

by infallibleopiniongenerator on Dec 28, 2009 4:42 AM EST reply actions  

Hard to say...

If we sign him, he starts the season as the starting 3B, a position at which he isn’t a plus defender and has only been a good enough bat to be league average at that position once in his career.

I don’t think it’s a bad move to sign him for 2Y$12M, but I’m also not sure what problems it really solves either. If we don’t get Holliday he can play LF, but I think I’d almost rather roll the dice with Craig and Freese at those two positions while finding a lefty to platoon with Craig in LF (Cust, Hinske, etc.), and spend some more money on the rotation.

Anything that keeps us from signing Jason Bay long term or Jermaine Dye short term is a win as far as I’m concerned.

Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.

by fourstick on Dec 28, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Matty Ho's largest offer

a history via mlbtr
it would be cool if it were an illustrated history

i’ll crosspost this as a fanshot just to have it pop on his player’s page on sbn

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 9:53 AM EST reply actions  

O'Dowd
“O’Dowd said the Rockies offered Holliday $107.5MM over seven years during Spring Training of ’08”

I don’t remember hearing ANYTHING about that at the time; interesting that it would pop up now. Video doesn’t seem to work for me, though.

it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie

by SleepyCA on Dec 28, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I have come not to trust these Colorado guys

who lets go Derrick Goold?? (though I think his newspaper folded…)

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Kiko Calero. I like saying that name. Giants are whispering.

http://twitter.com/MUrbanCSN/status/7131213971

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 3:07 PM EST reply actions  

oh and Mark DeRosa, 2 years 12 mil blah blah blah

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

and it was reported he was still fitter than Pablo Sandoval
ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports that DeRosa took a physical for the Giants earlier today. Still no official word that this is a done deal, but it looks very close.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 28, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

mlbtr summarizes the NL Central moves so far

or perhaps… summarises

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/nl-central-moves.html

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 29, 2009 1:18 PM EST reply actions  

the Bay has sailed!

via MLBTR
1:13pm: WFAN’s Mike Francesa says the Mets will announce a Jason Bay signing early next week, if his physical checks out. Francesa’s report also included previously-known info about Bengie Molina seeking three years and the Mets offering one plus a vesting option.
      It’s a strange way for news of a major agreement to break, though Francesa did not use the word “agreement.” It’s also strange that Francesa would sit on this news for a full day and make the announcement with no enthusiasm.
[audio]

1:20pm: SI’s Jon Heyman confirms that the Mets have an agreement with Bay. MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone expects a four-year deal for about $66MM. If that’s accurate, Bay left Boston for an additional $6MM. As compensation, the Red Sox will receive the Mets’ second-round pick (currently #50) as well as a supplemental pick.

1:42pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that Bay has a four-year, $66MM agreement with an easy fifth-year vesting option. The 2014 vesting option appears to be worth more than $14MM, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Bay’s deal could be worth “slightly more than $80MM over five years.” Sherman cautions that Bay’s physical “might not be a formality.”

http://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/7169984620

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 29, 2009 3:29 PM EST reply actions  

Bay to Mets, DeRosa to Giants, Kelly Johnson probably to D'Backs
Sources: Boras started doubling back to teams to talk about Holliday. Stated asking price in at least one conversation was $18 mill. a year

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/7175709921

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 29, 2009 7:04 PM EST reply actions  

I doubt he signs for more than 15

Even if we don’t get Holliday, there are at least 5 other options that look good.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

who's on your list?

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 29, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Smoltz, Sheets, Lopez, Beltre, Pineiro

Those are the 5 best players out there, and I legitimately believe that the right combination of them could be better and had for cheaper than Holliday. There’s also Brett Myers who could be okay.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 29, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

I may be in a rut, but at least I know where I'm going

by sportsman on Dec 29, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

More Holliday News

Buster Olney sounds optimistic that MH may be preparing to settle for a number in the Cardinals range ($18M per year). We shall see.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4780391

by JWO on Dec 29, 2009 9:19 PM EST reply actions  

busttterrrrrrr

from mlbtr

    * Despite preliminary talks, Olney finds a Padres extension for Adrian Gonzalez to be “very, very unlikely.”
    * The Dodgers “are in the chase” for free agent starter Joel Piñeiro, with the Angels and Mets other suitors. The Dodgers were first linked to Piñeiro by MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick on December 8th. With a chunk of the Juan Pierre savings already spent on Jamey Carroll, Pineiro seems out of their price range.
    * Olney guesses that Matt Holliday will ultimately sign for five years and $82.5-85MM, with options and/or incentives that could “dress it up as a deal that could be worth over $100MM.”
    * The Orioles continue to hunt for a pitcher and corner infielder. I should note that they were initially linked to Pineiro, but maybe the $9MM committed to Kevin Millwood takes them out of the mix. An Erik Bedard reunion could be a possibility.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 30, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

Juan Uribe to Giants, probably 1 year deal

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 30, 2009 12:11 PM EST reply actions  

it's on.
3:20pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Cardinals’ offer to Holliday “is believed to be over $100MM” (guaranteed, he tells me). Additionally, Ringolsby replied to my email and clarified that he’s been told the Cards’ eight-year, $140MM offer is guaranteed both in years and dollars.

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 30, 2009 4:38 PM EST reply actions  

new thread!

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/12/30/1227365/some-like-it-hot-so-lets-turn-up

"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Dec 30, 2009 8:55 PM EST reply actions  

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