Without Holliday (looking more and more likely) this team falls back to the pack and cannot survive another Franklin/Bullpen tailspin.

I don’t agree, and I don’t think tom does either. The bullpen isn’t great, but it has potential, and it’s very unlikely that the bullpen will be the reason we fall back into the pack. We have large holes in the rotation and the lineup that could easily be improved, whereas the bullpen pieces we are talking about will, in all likelihood, cost more than they are worth. If Wagner costs us our pick plus $8M, wouldn’t we be better off just signing a guy like Erik Bedard, who could be an effective starter or come out of the bullpen, and would probably be cheaper?

To much of a risk of the guy not being worth a draft pick next year and just accept arbitration

but only if not offerd arb

1. I’m not giving up a draft pick for a reliever.
2. What I really wanted to comment on was this:
Everyone keeps saying it look more and more likely that we won’t get Holliday, but I really don’t see how. At the least it’s just as likely as ever.
Personally, I think it’s just between us and the Mets at the moment. If the Red Sox and Yankees officially get involved, then we can be nervous, but right now I like our chances (not necessarily saying it’s in the bag, but looks better than I would realistically have hoped).
The Angels aren’t in it because they don’t have the cash (and have too many OFers anyway), Giants don’t have the cash, Sox are likely to sign Bay (less likely atm, but still likely I think), and Yankees are saving a spot for Austin Jackson (so a Damon re-sign could be in the works).

The Sox and the Yankees still make me nervous, but there has been NO NEWS on that front and everyone still keeps saying it’s less and less likely. Stop getting so disheartened when there haven’t been any positive or negative updates yet. We knew he would test the market all along, now just wait and see how the market develops.

Not to pick on you njnick, just something that’s been bothering me. Unless of course this is some sort of Franklin style meme, in which case “Holliday is never coming back! The odds are getting worse and worse!”

at least in terms of recent injury history. No thanks.

I thought I remembered reading something about him and a shoulder injury all summer long. That has to affect his value somewhat.

OTOH if we could get him for that price, it would be a reasonably low-risk move.

soriano and gonzalez both project about the same and the braves won’t offer them both arb. just get the other one

but the dude was a racist

we were double lucky in franky’s good performance and fuentes’ not so good

i agree we’re pressing out luck counting on frizzy to close next year

i’m for both wagner and smoltz, and kiko at he right price

great vs righties. If we got Gonzalez or another lefty-killer too, we could have a nice closer platoon!

Also, I think Springer could be had cheaply – he’s got family ties here (I think his kid goes to a hospital in StL?) and so it’s a good fit for him, also, his “trad” stats (ERA, W/L) looked really poor last year, even though his FIP and K/BB rates etc. were still really strong.

Evidently he called A.D.A.M. on the day the NL Cy Young was announced.

link

The article mostly elaborates on the Cy Young discussion, but note the first sentence:

Cardinals reliever Kyle McClellan called teammate Adam Wainwright on Wednesday to chat about preparing as a starter, but they couldn’t avoid talking about the game McClellan didn’t finish.

It’s mentioned again later with the caveat that he has trained this way before because it builds better stamina and arm strength:

McClellan went 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 66 games this past season, mostly as a late-inning reliever. He said he has been told to prepare this winter to enter spring training as a starter — though McClellan also prepped as a starter this past season because the coaches believe it’s a better way for him to build arm strength and stamina for his role. The Cardinals have two vacancies in their rotation, however, and McClellan — a starter for most of his minor-league career — has been mentioned as an option.

I think they’re shaping up to trade him anyway, and try Joel Hanrahan in the 9th.

No caps means lazy (in my case) – except that this blackberry puts them in automatically.

before i get into discussion, i would like to say that I do not believe

!

But you’re going to make snide comments about capitalization anyway?

Wut?

more cut and paste options would be a great improvement

Then use paste from word.

I could have swore he used to have a decent one. Has he just scrapped it? Didn’t Izzy used to have a great one too? Do I now have to accuse Duncan of being anti-splitter?

the GOB’s will rain down on him with a vengeance like we haven’t seen in quite some time.

i think the pen is a big problem. other than Miller, there’s not one guy out there i trust to get outs. the Hawk is getting there quickly though. and if Mitch isn’t in the rotation i think he’s not too far behind. Apple Sauce needs to take a big step in the right direction in 10 or that trade for DeRo will be even moar of an epic fail. out of the free agents you listed i feel only Russ & Kiko are worth the Cards time. everyone else is too hurt, too expensive or too overrated.

the good news is a couple weeks ago Dave said he wants the Cards to get a “proven vet” who can close. Mo agreed with that & said the other day that’s on the shopping list. i take that as they also are very aware just how lucky franky was & know there’s no way in hell it will ever be repeated. here’s hoping they find more than one new man for the pen.

fair the well Puppy Kicker. at least we’ll always have the puppies.

buttfist. . . and i’m not touching it

especially the political ones. You people know better than this.

I sometimes wish I could go back in time and stab riverrat before he started all of this.

Got his eye shot out

Chad cordero? Lyon? Ugh.

Octavio Dotel(type A) but unlikely offered arb

Not especially good, too wild, too many walks, will probably get $4m-ish if he’s not offered arb. No thanks.

Fernando Rodney

See above. Not very good. Too many walks. Just got lucky this year. I’d rather go internal than pay this guy $5m.

Brandon Lyon

Deeply mediocre. Lyon is a middle reliever who somehow has a “proven closer” tag because the DBacks didn’t have anyone better a couple of years ago. K/BB ratio nothing special.

Takashi Saito(I want him the most)

If he’s cheap, I guess he’s one to gamble on, but he showed very worrying signs last year – BB rate way up, K rate way down. Because he was mostly healthy, I imagine someone might give him $5m or so and he’s not worth that, he’s a $1-2m gamble.

Chad Cordero(spring invite/minor league contract)

Cordero is toast. He was throwing in the high-70s in recent winter games for the Mariners, before they canned him.

Rafael Betancourt(not going to get arb)

One I hadn’t thought of. I really like him, and his poor 2008 (although worrying) should depress his value – every other year he’s been elite.

Still, I don’t really see why the Rocks won’t offer arby. He made a good salary last year but he also had a decent season and he’s a type A. Unless they’re trimming payroll, I think he could get offered. If not, I’d be very happy to get him.

Danys Baez

Not very good at pitching.

Kelvim Escobar(closer/Starter option)

I like escobar but I fear, like Cordero, he is permanently broken. I’d be open to a minor-league invite or maybe even a $1m, incentive-laden deal, but I’d be more interested in him as a rotation option, and I feel he’s probably just going to stay in California, as someone else will offer him the same/better and there’s no real incentive to move halfway across the country.

Eric Gagne(minor league contract)

I think he might get a major league deal somewhere. Probably for no more than $1m. I would be open to that, I think, although having to keep him on the roster kinda sucks. A minor league deal would be great; people forget it’s only been a season and a half (if you ignore his lost 2009) since he was actually pretty good.

LaTroy Hawkins(I doubt he’s offered arb)

I think he’ll be a bit over-rated after last year; he’s a dependable arm but I think Calero and Springer are probably both better and will cost less. Hawkins is, at best, a good set-up guy, and if he’s not offered arb (and again, I think he will be) he’ll cost in the $5m region as he’s now got the “closer” tag after filling in well for Valverde for a couple of months in 2009.