Joe Jackson talks briefly to a newsboy about yesterday's news
by DanUpBaby on Nov 20, 2009 5:52 AM EST
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It's the most famous young face in the history of baseball—it's the symbol of purity corrupted, of the sport's loss of innocence in the face of organized crime and a gambling scandal that nearly ended baseball as young boys everywhere knew it.
Outside the courthouse there's a nervous crowd milling around, waiting for news. Suddenly there's a burst of activity and "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, surrounded by well-wishers, ex-fans, photographers, reporters, and baseball players, pushes through the double doors and takes the steps with his easy grace. The crowd is shocked into silence—the reporters' questions are so much rhubarb—but one brave, stoic newsboy, carrying his accusing newspapers guiltily, steps into the baseball great's path and begs, his voice quivering with the weight of posterity on its back: "Say it ain't so, Joe! Say it ain't so!"
Having gotten his lede, the lucky reporter stalks back to the newsroom. But after his famous silence the fallen hero gives the newsboy a measured look and says, "Well, it depends on what you mean. Certainly I was mixed up with bad people who were doing bad things. But in the end either the facts or the sheer gravitas of my story will vindicate me, and that's all I can really ask for."
The baby-faced newsboy sniffles a little. No more than ten or eleven, by the looks of it, he's already an old hand at the business. "I—I'm glad to hear that, Joe, I really am, but that's not what I'm askin' about. Didn't you see the paper? Haven't you been paying attention? I got signed by the Royals!"
"Oh, Lord, kid," Joe says. "The Royals? That's a harsh break. But I'm afraid it's so."
"I know! I'm WonderBrad! I pitched 57 scoreless innings in a row in the minor leagues—and forget this rag," he says, "I was in the New York Times!"
"The first break-up is always tough. But I say you oughtta look at it this way: now that you're gone, the Cardinals fans you impressed all through that great season, and in your first few years as a reliever—well, that's how they're going to remember you! Not as the pitcher of last resort, or the guy who could only come in after a certain percentage of the TV audience had gone to bed."
"What's a TV?"
"The timeline is hazy, kid. Don't ask questions. It's like this—a role player's best moment is when he catches fire for those first few months and he can't do anything wrong. But his second-best moment is right now, after he's gone. From now on you're WonderBrad. Ten years from now they won't even remember that your fastball and your changeup eventually met in the middle."
The newsboy's face clears a little—a boyish glow takes hold. "I guess you're right, Joe." The matter settled, the crowd having grown bored and a little confused, the newsboy resumes plying his wares.
#
"Extra, extra—read all about it! Lincecum Cy Young of the National League!"
"Wait, kid, what'd you say? Lincecum?"
"It's so, Joe. Some people say it's a sea-change in how awards will be won. Other people are just really, really mad about it."
So here's what I still don't get. How can you look at what Wainwright did from a won-loss standpoint and essentially dismiss it in favor of Lincecum? As gifted a pitcher as Lincecum clearly is, he faltered down the stretch when his team was in the playoff hunt. In his last 10 starts, the San Francisco ace was only 3-4 with a 3.15 ERA. I'm sorry, but that has to mean something, doesn't it? If won-loss records are suddenly obsolete, why do we bother to keep the stat?
"Don't read any more unless you're gonna buy that."
"Okay, okay. There's something kind of haunting about that last line, isn't it? Like he's just a little worried somebody's going to say, 'You're right, why do we bother?' 'If switchboards are suddenly obsolete, why do we have all these people sitting in front of them?'"
"Give him his wins, Joe. They're a narrative, for goodness' sake. You should know something about that."
"Oh, wins and losses are great; nobody's ever going to occasion a parade when he breaks the 6 WAR barrier. And Wainwright and Carpenter both had great years. But it's a shame that this is the debate he's having, or trying to have, when there's a neighboring one that's a lot more important, especially considering a lot of these guys probably picked Lincecum because of his innings and his strikeouts, anyway: Does the Cy Young measure value, or does it measure what that value should have been?"
"This is why I never strike anybody out. I cut off philosophizing at the pass."
"Say we could eventually have a stat that measures the expected value of each swing, from a grounder to the second baseman to a ball that should be a home run. Is that a tool for MVP debates?"
"Is this about Keith Law's ballot?"
"Javier Vazquez had better peripheral stats than Wainwright. He should have been better. But all those runs Wainwright stranded were valuable, even if there's no reason to think he'll do that again. Vazquez is a perfect test case for this, too, since his ERA has always lagged his peripherals. But instead we're talking about wins like nobody's ever lost the Cy Young to a player with fewer wins before."
"This is a slippery slope, though. Do you give the MVP to the clutchest player, too?"
"Look, I don't know, Brad. I'm just a baseball player. I can't even read, to be totally honest—I just figured Bryan Burwell would be really mad and I made it up the best I could."
"You did good, Joe. We all have secrets," the newsboy says. "I'm actually 27 years old."
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Four times the fists
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
Is that
Greg "The hammer Valentine on the left? Is that Piper second from the left? If so, who is that on the right?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I used this one before Monk.......
It brought bad luck.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
OH GOD WE'RE GOING TO SIGN KIP WELLS TODAY
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
i am so tired of the Kip Wells and Signey Ponson's on the world
I hope we never sign a guy that has potential but just never was able to put it together. Now is over aged looking for that last shot.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Lohse is perhaps a borderline case as well
although the 2nd Lohse contract may not exactly be our finest moment, 2008 was pretty good.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
This is presumably in a local hotel bar
during simultaneous “Dog the Bountyhunter” and “Members of Bon Jovi Lookalike” conventions?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
Old time wrestling fans should know 3 of the guys.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
I used to be big into the grappling game
but I only really recognise the guy on the right, vaguely. Dusty Rhodes?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 6:15 AM EST up reply actions
nah, on second thoughts, not fat enough!
he looks a bit like a slightly bigger version of curt hennig. Bah, I can’t remember anyone from the 80s…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 6:16 AM EST up reply actions
From left to right
Greg “The Hammer” Valentine, Rowdy Roddy Piper, Mickey Rourke, Brutus Beefcake
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
I recognized the hammer and mickey rourke
couldn’t recognize roddy piper without the Crazy Eyes in full force
Heh
Rowdy Roddy Piper
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Wow
The only one I could name was Rourke, but the leftmost and rightmost guys looked really familiar. And I should have realized that was Roddy Piper because he always wears his sunglasses. You know, so he can see who’s actually an alien.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Name that movie
’cause I forgot the title
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
thank you.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
It is absolutely awesome.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:05 AM EST up reply actions
Okay you guys win
I made the mistake of going to the stltoday site and seeing the ridiculous “Wins are everything!” whining from the regulars there. I still don’t think Vasquez should have been anywhere near Law’s ballot, but whatever. I believe in Sabremetrics now. (So much as it makes more sense in judging a pitcher than depending entirely on their offense to outscore the opponent…)
i am, however, curious as to how many games
Timmy and Waino got no-decisions on after leaving the game with a lead. Because I’m almost sure it was more than one for Waino.
Averaging up run support in a wins-only world doesn’t make sense if the team only needed 2 or 3 runs to wing the gang.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Just seems to me that while Keith Law
makes a strong argument (and a correct argument) for Lincecum in the balloting using more advanced stats, he then gets too smart for his own good and shoots himself in the foot by voting for Vazquez.
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
I just don't get the Vasquez skepticism
by virtually every metric he was exceptional last year, and fully deserving of a top-3 vote.
His ERA was excellent (2.87 and 2.77 respectively), his K/BB ratio was as good as anyone in the league not named Lincecum (5.41!), he threw down 219 innings. “Only” 15 wins but then that’s no real way to judge a pitcher. By WAR he was 2nd only to Lincecum (6.6).
In pretty much every stat that matters he was better than Carp or Waino. I really just don’t get how people can say he wasn’t deserving of being in the top 3. There isn’t a lot to separate him, Carp, Waino, Josh Johnson and some guy whose name I forget who pitches in the desert, but, by most of the better metrics, he’s actually had a better year than the rest of that crowd.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:33 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry, I meant to say
“His ERA and FIP were excellent (2.87 and 2.77 respectively)”.
Carp and Waino both had better ERAs (Waino only slightly) but Vasquez bests them both by FIP, total K’s, K/BB ratio, and WAR. He threw more innings than Carp and less than Waino.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree
What I don’t understand is how Keith Law could leave Carp off the ballot and include Vasquez. Yes, he was great and had a great season with more innings and more strikeouts. However, he gave up 3 times as many home runs, his ERA was half a run higher than Carp, Carp walked less and had a slightly lower WHIP, he had more wins going 10-1 after the break, and Vasquez gave up more than 120 total bases more in just 4 starts. How do you leave carp off the ballot?!
Because Vasquez may have been more valuable?
you’re just cherry-picking stats. FIP attributes the appropriate amount of credit/debit for walks, HR and BB, so to say “Carp walked fewer and gave up fewer home runs” is not really relevant because Vasquez struck out a ton more – Vasquez had a FIP of 2.77, Carp was 2.78, so, across those three stats (HR, BB, K) it’s basically a wash.
ERA relies heavily on defence and (to a lesser extent) luck, so I’m not sure I’d give half a run here or there any credence at all. Likewise, total bases and WHIP are basically dependent on hits, many of which will be debited to Vasquez due to having a weaker defence behind him.
Probably the better argument (from your side) than using defence-dependent stats would be that Carp generated 55% groundballs, wheras Vasquez only generated 42% groundballs (it was basically a wash on in-field flyballs) so Carp generated weaker contact when the bat was placed on the ball. tRA (a stat that also includes batted ball data, i.e. GB and FB rates, along with the previously mentioned HR/K/BB) scores Carp 3.02 and Vasquez 3.67. So, when we examine batted-ball type AS WELL as the three “true” outcomes, it looks like Carp may well have been the better pitcher.
However, Vasquez pitched more innings, so you’ve got to weigh that, as well. Nearly 30 more, in fact, which is no small beans for such dominant starters.
I could go either way, I certainly don’t think it’s as cut and dry as you present. One guy (Vasquez) was a better true outcomes pitcher and threw more innings, one guy (Carp) was better at pitching to his defence and (perhaps) got a bit lucky on batted balls (as his average on balls-in-play AND his HR/FB ratio were far lower than his career rate). Then, of course, we get into the argument of “but do we credit/debit the pitcher with what SHOULD have happened, given how well they pitched by measurable factors, or what ACTUALLY happened?”
I don’t have the answer but I think to incredulously state “How do you leave Carp off the ballot (in favour of Vasquez)” is over-simplifying it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
How do you leave Carp off the ballot in favor of Vasquez?
my defense beats your defence, because my defense isn’t open for fancy interpertations.
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
OK.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
The problem with FIP
H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Carpenter 7.3 0.3 1.8 6.7
Vasquez 7.4 0.8 1.8 9.8
So comparing the stats that make up FIP (i know, Hits/9 doesn’t) Carpenter gave up less hits and less HRs than Vasquez. But Vasquez strike outs were amazing. Thus Vasquez must have been a better pitcher, (according to the one who used FIP to determine CY Young Votes.)
Because Carpenter had a better defense we should toss aside Hits and ERA. But just for giggles:
XBH% GB/FO LD% HR/FB IF/FB DP%
Carpenter 5.3% 1.26 17% 3.4% 13% 19%
Vasquez 6.2% 0.70 21% 6.5% 9% 8%
When Vasquez had a ball hit into play, it was a line drive more often than carpenter, it was a more than likely a fly ball, those fly balls left the park about the amount of Carpenter.
When Carpenter had a ball hit into play, more often than not it was a ground ball, if it was a fly ball more of those were on the infield, he also was able to get double plays when he needed them. (due to the ball being on the ground.)
Now that I think about it. I really can only find two statistics; Strike-outs and Inning pitched; in which Vasquez was better than Carpenter. Any other statistic that has him ahead of Carp are based on strikeouts.
Damnit
I previewed that. And the chart looked all wacky, and instead of fixing it I hit print.
Evilfail.
i now just make tables outside of VEB
And just make them into a jpg or png
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Make your table in Notepad and then use the tag
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Ahem
The pre tag
I thought there wasn’t any formatting in the subject line?!
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
XB% GB/FB LD% HR/FB IF/FB DP%
Carpenter 5.3% 1.26 17% 3.4% 13% 19%
Vasquez 6.2% 0.70 21% 6.5% 9% 8%
Alright, There we go. I’d also like to point out that the Woodworker’s BAbip may be below his Career average, and his best yet, but it’s only a few percentage points off of 2004-2006. He wasn’t any more lucky this year than he was in previous in that regard. His lower ERA is a result of not giving up as many Line drives, so he didn’t give up as many extra base hits. He also had kept the ball on the ground more. When it was in the air it was in the infield a lot more of time. Which also help result in less home runs. When he had runners on, he was able to deny eliminate them with Double play balls.
This was not a result of better defense. I mean, how many innings did Thurston play 3rd base for the Braves? Or an outfielder play 2nd. I don’t believe our defense was hands down better than the braves.
In conclusion, Vasquez only had Carpenter beat in strikeouts and inning pitched. I do not put nearly the value on strikeouts that some people do. Yeah they have their place, they should not be used to judge which pitcher is better.
Innings on the other hand, very important. And if you feel 27 innings is a deal breaker. More power to you. But I ask you, who do you want to have the ball every 5th day, Carpenter or Vasquez?
Thought so.
by Evilfrog on Nov 20, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I almost want to rec this for your defeat of SBN
I’ll +1 instead.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
(with the help of jd)
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
you can get the assist
they have stats for that, I hear.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
"Woodworker"
Love it.
Two aces: Woodworker and Wagonmaker
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I covered that yesterday....
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Oops
Assist REDACTED
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
ouch
we have umps on VEB now?
I guess they touch-type.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I wish my zodiac sign were Carpentarius
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Okay, enough
Let’s use straight pitcher ERA WAR, using the methodology in this thread:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_to_calculate_war/
And Park Adjustments from here:
http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html
I have Carpenter at 7.7 ERA WAR and Vasquez at 6.8 ERA WAR. That’s a difference of .9 WAR, which is a little less than the difference between the two by FIP WAR. If you want to split the difference, the two are even.
Carpenter’s BABIP was about .25 points lower than Vasquez’. That is most likely due to defense/luck (and maybe a little skill, however, even Greg Maddux, the king of groundballs and pitching to defense, had a .287 career BABIP – about .12 points higher than Carp’s this year).
In conclusion, Vasquez only had Carpenter beat in strikeouts and inning pitched.
Funny enough, those are two of the most important things a pitcher can do.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 20, 2009 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Carpenter’s BABIP was about .25 points lower than Vasquez’. That is most likely due to defense/luck (and maybe a little skill, however, even Greg Maddux, the king of groundballs and pitching to defense, had a .287 career BABIP – about .12 points higher than Carp’s this year).
Carpenter’s BAbip since coming to St. Louis and working with Dave Duncan. I left 2007 and 2008 of obvious reasons.
2004 .280 2005 .282 2006 .276 2007 .274 Avg. .278
You may call it luck, but I’m going to call it a repeatable skill. This may have been his best season as far as BAbip however it is only .004 off of his avg with the Cardinals.
BABIP takes over a half a career to tell you anything meaningful
Those 4 years maybe imply that Carp has a true talent .293 BABIP instead of .300, and even that’s pushing it.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
I'm with you.
You could really order Vasquez, Wainwright, Carp, and YouKnowWho in any order after Lincecum and I wouldn’t mind.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I get the feeling that Law just doesn't like the Cardinals
Why I don’t know…It’s pretty obvious. From comments back in the 06 World Series to the whole Cy Young vote. Listen to Randy Karraker spar with Law yesterday. http://www.101espn.com/post/26682_the_fast_lane_show_note_thursday_111909
Law is grasping at straws here in trying to say Carp doesn’t belong in the top 3.. Law was very smug in this interview. Karracker brought up some good points about Duncan’s way of pitching to contact (Law was trying to pump up strikeouts) and then Law was playing like he didn’t understand the question.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
a Cardinal dropped one in his cornflakes
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I figured he's either a Cubs fan
or he tried to get a FO job with the Cardinals years ago and DeWitt or Jocketty laughed in his face. He has some kind of agenda…not sure what.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
Royals agenda, actually
unless i’m mixing up douchey sportswriters
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
There's a douche who write for yahoo who's a Royals fan who constantly rags on the Cards
It’s quite pathetic, actually, given how little we actually care about their existence. If I’m not mistaken it’s Jeff Passan. I didn’t know Law was, but having read some of Passan’s stuff I could believe it.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
i probably mixed them up
we’re going to run out of fantasy creatures to post. not to mention persons are already conflating pegacorns with unicorns which is just wrong.
I vote more puppies and kittens to mitigate. and I’m not big on too many baby animal jpgs.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Jeff Passan
is an Asshat.
Keith Law also treads those waters at times.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
Please.
We may disagree with Law about his Vasquez pick, and I think we’re right thanks to the tRA argument, but Law isn’t in the same universe of douchiness as Jeff Passan (the universe known as The Rosenthalvese).
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
You're right.....
I was thinking of Rosenthal.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
using fip
as an argument for vazquez over carp is flawed, but i agree that vazquez was mroe valuable from a total ip standpoint. carp would not have made my ballot
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
What gets me
Is that he said Lincecum didn’t have a better defense than the Cardinals… which by UZR standards is completely wrong.
by Mulliganstew on Nov 20, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Eh...He kinda already addressed his point.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Burwell being Burwell this morning
If I thought he knew of other Cardinal fans online other than the forums, I’d think he was doing this on purpose. This excellent article is entitled " Why don’t wins count anymore? ". VEB-ers will enjoy many of the following crutches and strawmen:
Baseball’s new wave of deep thinkers and pseudo-intellectuals
Armed with their “advanced metrics” and clutching their spread sheets (sic)
Look, I think Lincecum is a heck of a pitcher, arguably the most gifted hurler in baseball. But I always thought the Cy
Young was intended to honor the pitcher with the best season, not necessarily to reward the guy who has the best stuff.
Armed with all their sabermetrics, Carroll and Law — and obviously a lot of other voters — were able to determine that winning the most games in the heat of a pennant push was not nearly as important as looking good while losing.
It makes me feel like they’re either trying to out-think themselves or justify their sabermetric fascinations when I hear people tell me that a pitcher’s victories aren’t all that important.
If you (painfully) read through the article, it’s almost like he’s admitting that the ability to truly understand and evaluate skill has passed him by.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
I really need to read the main post more
Sorry Dan. Let me try again.
See above for more annoying things that Burwell said in the article Dan linked to! Weee!
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
I Can't Read It All
I started to read Burwell’s article and then skimmed the rest and then read a couple comments and started to get a headache. It makes me far angrier than it should to read someone argue so vociferously for a flawed argument (that wins should carry the day). It isn’t really even about sabermetrics, it’s just common sense that wins don’t tell you the true value of a pitcher when they are so dependent on what your teammates do.
That being said, I do think that Law and Carroll screwed up in leaving Carp off altogether. Carroll’s dismissal of his candidacy was a little knee-jerk, if you ask me.
Armed with all their sabermetrics, Carroll and Law — and obviously a lot of other voters — were able to determine that winning the most games in the heat of a pennant push was not nearly as important as looking good while losing.
FWIW, I hate the whole “stats mean more in September” fallacy. Do stats not, in fact, mean more in April, when every team is still very much in the playoff hunt, mathematically? Do wins in September somehow count “more” for our playoff place this year than the ones in June (even though we were actually pretty much there a few weeks before the end of the season)?
Perhaps baseball writers need to start actually biasing their votes towards the guys who did better in, say, April, when their teams are ALL actively “in the heat of a pennant push”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
but it's true....
at least for those teams who end up in the pennant race. Imagine the two extremes:
- a single game playoff for a spot in the playoffs (like the Twins-Tigers game this year)
- the first game of the year
The change in playoff odds that are tied to the single game is radically different. It’s vastly more valuable to the team for a player to “come up big” in the playoff game, while it’s pretty much irrelevant in the first game (because the team’s playoff odds hardly change). Of course, it’s not always that way because for some teams September is more meaningless than April (say, because they are already mathematically eliminated). But, for the most part, we’re talking about players who did take part in pennant races so that concern is mitigated.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 20, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Would a parallel to this argument be the "high-leverage inning" idea, ala WPA and similar stuff?
Your point is valid. At least, I think I understand it.
Unfortunately, the way some of these sportswriters talk about it, it’s as if a handful of teams just magically “pop” ex nihilo into the September Pennant Race. They don’t seem to even take into account that all the games prior to September go towards determining whether you’re in the race in the first place.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
free throws
a point scored in the first quarter counts as much as a point in the fourth quarter, but it’s definitely not as easy to make a free throw
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
I hate articles like this.
This kind of article starts with a decent premise; for example, individual post-season awards are supposed to reward the best performance for the year, not necessarily the most talented player.
Then they try to prove their point with arguments that don’t actually have anything to do with their stated premise.
In this case, “the heat of the pennant push” has little or nothing to do with the best single performance of the year. I don’t recall Burwell complaining about Greinke receiving the award in the AL. Also, clearly pitchers wins games by themselves, right? I mean, we have a “win” stat. We have it. Why would we have it if it didn’t make any sense? That’s just impossible.
And, “looking good while losing,” seriously? That’s your argument. Awesome.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I just can't wrap my head around it anymore
I just don’t get it. How do you look at Win-Loss record and not see that half of it is offense and then a good chunk of the remainder is defense. I just can’t get past this. There is just a dissonance between logic and these people.
Not afraid to nitpick
Oh, wins and losses are great; nobody’s ever going to occasion a parade when he breaks the 6 WAR barrier. And Wainwright and Carpenter both had great years. But it’s a shame that this is the debate he’s having, or trying to have, when there’s a neighboring one that’s a lot more important, especially considering a lot of these guys probably picked Lincecum because of his innings and his strikeouts, anyway: Does the Cy Young measure value, or does it measure what that value should have been?
That’s a really, really interesting question, I think, and maybe one that merits more discussion. I suppose the implied question being: "If we have, at some point, the scientific ability to perfectly quantify every single action associated with the game, and distil them down to the minutiae of their parts to the lowest possible level, right down to the tracking of individual atoms, will the “most talented” pitcher who throws the most innings not win the Cy Young every year, and, if so, what is the point of it?".
If Lincecum throws a pitch to Chase Utley that Utley will hit for a HR 2% of the time, and he (in actuality) hits a HR, do we “score” that, in our hypothetical futuristic Cy Young balloting, as 1.00HR in Lincecum’s debit, or 0.02HR, knowing that the eventual result (i.e. whether Utley hits the ball well or not) of THAT SPECIFIC PITCH at that specific point in time is out of Lincecum’s hands the moment the ball, well, leaves them? How far do we go?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
This is the question that I was trying unsuccessfully to ferret out in some of my earlier posts on the Cy race. . .
It’s overly simplistic, but I think that stats like FIP, which try to separate defense and luck from pitching are designed and best used for predictive purposes, not for value purposes. I think that sabremetrics (of which I am a fan and to which I was an early adherent) has jumped the shark when it attempts to equate historical value with predictiveness.
An out is an out is an out, and in baseball terms, the value of a groundout induced by Chris Carpenter that turned into an out is exactly equal to a strikeout induced by him. My Cy ballot would have been Wainwright. . . Lincecum. . . Carpenter on the basis that all three were almost equally dominating from a getting outs and preventing runs perspective, and that Wainwright’s ability to take the ball every five days and go deep into the game while doing so gave him the edge over Lincecum. Carpenter’s missed time was enough to drop him a few notches, despite his slight advantage in dominance over Lincecum and Wainwright.
All that being said, and injuries aside, and all else being equal, Lincecum is a better bet to be a better pitcher going forward than either Carpenter or Wainwright. But that’s not what the Cy Young should be about.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Yep I can definitely swallow that argument.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Well put
In fact, I often forget about the predictiveness angle with sabermetric stats. The more I learned about FIP, for example, the more unsure I was that it should be relied on so heavily in calculations like WAR.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Question though
Do you give credit to Carpenter when he gives up a hard hit groundball but Boog makes an unbelievable diving play no other shortstop in the league could make?
Not afraid to nitpick
I would examine Boogñeiro more closely in this circumstance
Not to mention the context. Carp is more likely to make all of his pitches, but the hitter just may be good enough to take the ones which were supposed to be outside the strike zone. In which case, and Carp has said this before, he’ll chance that his defense is behind him.
Part of this is also knowing that Boog is behind him. It is entirely possible that Carp would pitch a different game with a different defense, and that takes skill and experience in knowing one’s infielders.
Which to me, in the contemporary pitching game plan, is a part of pitching. ESPECIALLY when Dave Duncan walks up to the mound and does a damn fool thing like calling for a pickoff play from Yadi, which happened at least 3 times this season.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Yes it's part of pitching
But that necessarily implies that it is easier for Carpenter to pitch with Boog behind him than saaaaay Edgar Renteria. If Lincecum had Boog behind him and Yadi picking people off, he’d get to change his plan I’d assume for the better.
Not afraid to nitpick
oh, I agree
Carp has an out the way he has an out pitching for the NL.
But it’s… I mean, in this case, we’re talking about a race. If one horse has a heavier jockey, does he suddenly get penalized even if he crosses the finish line? (Pretty much I think awards are stupid that way; honestly this year they should’ve given out three Cy Youngs because there was so much criteria that came close. But it’s a stupid award, so there has to be a winner.)
The other part of it is, do you then penalize Timmy for changing his game plan? That starts to get ridiculous to me — because how a pitcher sticks to his game plan, and in some cases deviates from it, is a part of pitching. It becomes that hypothetical “if Timmy were pitching in St. Louis”, at which point Dave Duncan would’ve ruined him, his head would be shaved, he’d have a handlebar mustache, and it’s not the same race at all, anymore. We assume it’s going to be an advantage, but we don’t know and it can’t be proven.
There’s always going to be that “I assume” in your sentence. That’s pretty much the only reason I wouldn’t go for a hypothetical in this case. IMO they all had different weights holding them back, but they each performed admirably despite them.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
^lighter jockey
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
the horseracing analogy is a false one, because horseracing isn't a team sport.
the challenge in awarding these individual awards in team sports is that there’s not a direct or easy relationship between success by an individual and success by a team. by its nature, the analogy doesn’t make any sense.
the tension in measuring pitcher performance is figuring out what was the pitcher and what was the team.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
yes, I'm saying awards are stupid.
it’s not going to make sense to apply smart stats to a stupid game: that of individual awards.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
horseracing is a team sport
a two mammal team, but a team nonetheless
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
the horse says - "shee-it -- i ran around the track, carrying your fat ass. all you did was hit me with
a stick. team my ass."
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
that might be the first time a jockey has ever been called a fat ass
you’ve made history Tom!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
you run a furlong (not sure what a furlong is) with some 97-pound jockey strapped to your
back and see whether you think he’s light.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
if a horse weighs 1000 lbs (guess)
then the equivalent would be a 19 lb jockey strapped to my back, which would still suck, but if he was whipping my ass I would probably run pretty fast
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
that's the one!
(and that’s what Carp says when anyone doubts the luggage.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
But even if Timmah didn't change his game plan one bit
He’d be much better off having Boog scoop up groundballs Renteria couldn’t dream of getting to. That’s not an assumption that’s a fact.
Not afraid to nitpick
but the giants defense was much better than the cardinals defense, overall.
so that doesn’t really apply.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
should Colby's UZR have put him as Law's top vote for ROY?
(I don’t even know who votes for ROY)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
NL MVP
1. Albert Pujols
2. Chase Utley
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Troy Tulowitzki
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Ryan Zimmerman
8. Ryan Braun
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Prince Fielder
AL MVP
1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. Ben Zobrist
4. Zack Greinke
5. Roy Halladay
6. Evan Longoria
7. Felix Hernandez
8. Justin Verlander
9. Mark Teixeira
10. Carl Crawford
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
by prophetjohn on Nov 20, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
It's more of an academic discussion on defense and how to handle that with the Cy
Not afraid to nitpick
wait, now I'm confused
are we not discussing it because it’s academic?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
We are discussing it
I was just using Boog vs. Renteria as a very specific example of how a pitcher can be given credit for the work of his fielders.
Not afraid to nitpick
oh okay. gotcha.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
See, I think this is navel-gazing when looking back. . .
I realize that there’s an argument that on a ground ball out, the pitcher should get something less than 100% credit, because of course the infielders have to make the play. But it seems to me that those who use FIP to deterrmine awards are giving zero credit for ground ball outs (or fly ball outs), which isn’t right either.
Heck, Tim Lincecum plays in the toughest park in the NL in which to hit HRs, yet he still gave up slightly more HR/9 than Carp. Another commenter famously dug up the Vazquez/Carpenter batted ball data to show that while Carpenter induced more contact than Vazquez, the contact Carpenter induced was also far weaker than that induced by Vazquez.
But at the end of the day, except in extreme circumstances (Bobo Newsom anyone?), and maybe after adjusting for park effects, the pitcher that most consistently records the most outs is the better pitcher, regardless of how those outs get recorded. I don’t think that any of those extreme circumstances warrant using FIP over the more standard stats of ERA and IP. If you want to use Ks as a tie-breaker, fine, but don’t act as if Ks as a tie-breaker are the only way to analyze a Cy Young vote and anyone else who thinks otherwise is a doddering fool.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
who says that? it seems like the people who voted for linececum are getting criticized.
has anybody said “voting for carpenter is stupid”? i haven’t seen that.
i don’t think there was a wrong way to arrange any of the three main candidates in order on the ballot. i don’t think it’s crazy to put vazquez on there. i’m not sure i totally understand the argument for dan haren, but i generally think that the whole ballot was a very close call with a number of excellent pitching performances over the year.
i do think that using pitcher wins as a proxy for pitcher skill is wrong. if people had other reasons for voting for waino, then i could understand a different rationale. waino would not have been at the top of my ballot.
regarding your points about other non-FIP stats, linececum had a substantially better tRA (which does include GB rates) than carpenter and pitched more innings than carp.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I think the outcome was not unexpected
they were talking about splitting the vote back in August, IIRC.
but I think it rather besmirches Timmy’s number two if there is a stink of a writer bearing a grudge and then using inconsistent analysis to back it up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That wasn't a direct quote from Keith Law. . .
but I think it was an apt paraphrase.
As to tRA and FIP and all of those component-based stats, again, you are still talking about could-haves and would-haves and ifs and buts, which IMHO have very little place in looking backward except perhaps in extreme cases, but a lot of value looking forward.
A difference between 3.02 and 2.83 in a component-based stat like tRA is a pretty weak hook on which to hang your hat, IMHO/
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
is it weaker than the difference between a 2.24 and a 2.48 ERA?
and i think i said that everybody was pretty close.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Yeah, I think it is weaker. . .
when you are talking about a vote that should be based on results. . . and when there is nothing context-wose to make you doubt that ERA is a good indicator of actual results.
That being said, I would have voted Lincecum ahead of Carp based on the extra GS and IP.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
the IP and K's
won lincecum the cy, and those are about as basic as stats come. like wins, they are simple counting stats, and timmy beat carp in two of the three. if writers were relying more on sabremetrics, as many believe, then vasquez would presumably have a higher point total, be right in the mix with carp and waino.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
Agree completely
Also, I’m now convinced that tRA is, for me, the preferred stat to FIP for evaluating pitchers.
by ArkansasTravs on Nov 21, 2009 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
The problem with tRA is the batted ball classifications
LD’s are very subjective in the way that they are recorded, and they have a HUGE impact in the way tRA is calculated. tRA is displayed publically in two places, FanGraphs, which uses BIS classifications for batted balls, and StatCorner, which uses GameDay classifications for batted balls. If you look at Javier Vazquez, you can see a big difference in the recorded LD%, and subsequently tRA:
http://www.statcorner.com/pitcherSP.php?id=134320&team=ATL&year=2009&leag=N_L
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=801&position=P
It’s like with a multivariate regression. When you add more parameters, it’s more detailed and explains more, but it also adds a lot more noise. When you have such a crappy stat like LD% fueling so much of the value of tRA, it simply adds a lot of noise that may or may not be canceled out by the added info it gives you.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 21, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
absolutely.
all of this FIP nonsense will hopefully go away within the next year or two…
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Okay, I'm educated even more now
still don’t like FIP’s, IMO, overvaluation of SO. Is HITf/x coming?
by ArkansasTravs on Nov 21, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Pitching down the stretch in the playoff push
I agree with you guys that Burwell is basically a tool…but his points on how the 3 pitched down the stretch/second half I believe are valid. Based on this, I think Lincy should have been 3rd. The 3 were all close so theres certainly an arguement for each. However, i take issue with people like DanUp and other saber dudes acting like the old school stat people have their heads up their butts.
In his last 10 starts, the San Francisco ace was only 3-4 with a 3.15 ERA.
Now look at what Wainwright and Carpenter did. Let’s start with Wainwright, who had the most wins in the NL with his 19-8 record. In games that he started, the Cards won 23 contests. Over the final three months of the season, Wainwright had an 11-3 record with a stunning 1.90 ERA. In Wainwright’s last 11 starts, the Cards lost one game. All of this was done in the heat of a push to the postseason.
Carpenter was equally dominant, with a 10-1 record (2.06 ERA) in his last 15 starts after the all-star break, and the team won 18 games when he was a starter.
Milt Thompson FTW!
see my post a couple of points above
Why do wins in September in a playoff push mean more than wins in April? Both teams (SF and StL) were in the playoff hunt in April, too. If Lincecum threw no-hitters in every game April to June and the Giants ran away with the NLW pennant by mid-summer, would that be somehow less impressive than him doing the same thing in September?
Every win in the season counts. If a team is in playoff contention (as both were), performances at the beginning of the season are just as important as they are at the end. If Lincecum hadn’t been so damn dominant for most of the year, his team wouldn’t have been IN a pennant push. Likewise, if he’d had more run support throughout the year, maybe the Giants would’ve run away with the division.
And a “mere” 3.15 ERA in his last 10 starts isn’t exactly falling apart, is it?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
Additionally
you could argue that in our case specifically, that Carp and Waino’s performance earlier in the year was more important to our playoff chase than the last 15 games or so. Pre-July, we had a pretty horrendous offense, so they had less run support and more margin for error. The fact we were in 1st place basically the whole way, and THEN traded for some more bats, kinda meant the wins we gained earlier in the year had more importance, IMO.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
sorry, typo again
I meant “less margin for error”.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
Not that I disagree with you
But one could say that the games in September have a little more pressure with the end of the season only weeks away and a spot in the playoffs are on the line. I get what you’re saying about the April games mean just as much…but to me there is a lot less pressure in April/May than in September. I guess it’s just how you look at it.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
but if the pressure is there for everyone
then everyone’s playing under the same conditions, right? I don’t see how Chris Carpenter or Tim Lincecum are under some sort of extra special unusual presure compared to anyone else.
I kinda take the point, and I see that that’s the received logic, I’m just not sure I agree with it (or, perhaps more accurately, I just don’t think it matters very much).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
not to mention wear and tear
If you don’t see how they’re under extra special unusual pressure, why do they keep talking about it? The last three pieces quoting Carpenter talks specifically about that pressure.
I do agree that it’s largely a non-factor statistically, i.e. how the voters decide on criteria — but to say it doesn’t exist is ignoring Chris F. Carpenter.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
no, you misunderstand me
I’m sure they are under additional pressure. So what? Tim Lincecum is pitching at the same time, in the same games isn’t he?
Getting away from the traditional logic, why is it so good be better in those high pressure games? If we divorce the reality from the narrative, which pitcher is actually better – the guy who beats up on the Pirates and Nats for 10 games a year and wilts in September, or the guy who sometimes gets knocked around by the weedy teams but turns into a lion in his last 5 starts of the year?
The answer – WHICHEVER ONE WAS MOST VALUABLE, OVERALL. If Lincecum beat the hell out of teams in supposedly “low-pressure” situations (and I still don’t agree that there’s significantly less pressure on a professional baseball player playing against other good players earlier in the year), and Carp/Waino sucked in that same situation (i.e. Waino was pretty poor in April), isn’t that a feather in Lincecum’s cap?
So, if Tim was better in low pressure situations, and Carp/Waino were WORSE in low pressure situations, but the situation was reversed later in the year for whatever reason, and they both provided the same level of value to their team across the year, I literally cannot see the inherent value of the guy who wins “when the pressure’s on” late in the year. The post-season is a whole different kettle of crab, as I CAN see the value of the “pressure” pitcher there, but Cy Young awards only concern the regular season.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
the inherent value is precisely where the season is
that’s when the season races heat up. most teams have coalesced at that point — they are the team they are when they go into the playoffs. there is wear and tear. there are more stress injuries. road series put more strain on families. it’s a combination of the grind and the sheer importance of those games.
the psychological advantage coming down the stretch is such that it might well be the only difference between a good team and a great team. it’s precisely when a pitcher must not break. it’s exactly when players start saying “oh, it’s this starter, I can relax and do my job”. no, you cannot measure that value by averaging it out, but again, when EVERY SINGLE BALLPLAYER references it, yes, I kind of do think performing well under pressure adds significant value to a team.
I mean, we can’t sit here and criticize La Russa for not performing well in September, or for that matter, Albert having a killer spring, and then turn around and say “when it happens in the season doesn’t matter at all and has no value to the team.” Winning teams do not actually win one game at a time. When the very thing you’re testing is consistency, having a pitcher turn it around and be a rock when the pressure is on can contribute to more consistent play.
Now, how much you weight that value is debatable. And your straw man is rather misleading — because it wasn’t just 5 starts, and it wasn’t just all the crappy teams. But as far as I can tell, you’re saying that if it averages out, it doesn’t matter and has no value.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
But as far as I can tell, you’re saying that if it averages out, it doesn’t matter and has no value.
Yah, I think I might be, if I understand your meaning.
I just think we get caught up in the narrative of sports, rather than the actual reality. The narrative suggests that the “games that matter”, the crunch games, the games that get referenced in movies, and novels, the stuff that gets US excited, are the important ones. But, breaking it down, I’d say they’re all important.
Start of the season – Cards probably predicted to win ~85 games or so. Giants maybe similar. Both are probably going to be in the pennant race, as long as they don’t disintegrate early in the year. Every win in April adds to the final number. Every win in September adds to the final number. You can assert that the September ones mean more, because you know you’re in a playoff battle then, but, realistically, both teams knew at the start of the year that they’d likely be in the hunt by September, and that every win counted, and that they needed to play well at the START of the year to put themselves in that position at the end of it.
Other than simply “That’s the narrative of sports, that engages us, that engages and excites the players, that gets the blood pumping etc etc”, I just don’t see how, in that example above, a win in September means more than one in April. Especially when, ultimately, we won the division by about 10 games.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
but it's not a narrative...
each game, whether won or lost, mathematically changes in its own way the odds that that team will go to the playoffs. It’s dynamic. And usually, the games with the highest leverage indexes (or whatever you want to call the difference in playoff odds based on winning or losing one game) are in Sept.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 20, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
as usual, you make a lot of sense
you’d probably need to find someone smarter than me to find a hole in that point.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Let's be careful not to penalize or reward someone
For his team’s inability/ability to produce high leverage situations for him. I know this isn’t directly your point (and is the debate of most valuable vs. best), but it is worth mentioning
Free Milton
I agree (and disagree)
I agree that that’s the old “how do you define MVP?” debate. But to me, I’m fine with voters defining “valuable” however they want. If that means they want to penalize outstanding players on crappy teams because their teams weren’t in the playoff race (or for whatever reason), that’s their prerogative.
Of course, this is why I find the whole argument that “Lincecum OBVIOUSLY deserves the Cy Young” to be so boring (and off-putting). To me, the people making that argument sound not so different than Burwell – just coming from a different perspective.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 20, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, the sabr-oriented community can be very bad at this in my opinion.
Though probably not as bad as Joe McTraditionalSportswriter. It’s not enough to simply say your opinion is self-evident. If it were self-evident we wouldn’t need to vote on these awards.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
yes I agree
I’m obviously feeling very agreeable today…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Heh
As long as you defend your agreement with evidence and don’t gloss over the inherently fallibility of your assumptions that you are in fact accurately measuring the extent to which you are in agreement and now my head hurts.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I don't think any of us in this thread is caught up by the narrative, Monk.
I think most of us are saying there is an inherent value of looking at the season in context. there is a huge, huge difference between a team in April because mathematically they might still be eliminated in the next few months and a team that’s looking at a playoff push. They are playing for a different set of goals altogether.
Mathematically, a pitcher in April has way more margin for error than a pitcher in September. Are you going to dismiss that?
it’s still a fish, but it’s downstream.
Remember, there were a lot of decisions made by La Russa based on whether or not the team had clinched. Players were pulled when they shouldn’t have been pulled. Players were not rested when they should have been. A pitcher who comes through in those conditions — as Carp and Waino eventually did — adds significant value to the team. And in the end, your team gets you the wins, not the other way around.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think you've probably just about convinced me.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
I think your point about the writers and talking heads is still valid.
They do a terrible job of convincing people why they should consider September games more valuable. And they often use arguments that aren’t really the same ones as in this thread. It’s usually just some variation on “down-the-stretch is more important because it is” or “there is inherently more value in a playoff-hunt because there is.”
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
and they're witches.
I don’t trust their narratives.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
We should drop houses on them.
Then we’ll weigh them against a duck to confirm their witchery.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I don't disagree with your premise
But you really can’t see ANY value of a guy who wins when the pressure’s on?
I think of it kind of like RBIs and average with RISP. If Pujols hit a double every time the bases were empty and grounded out every time there was a runner in scoring position, he wouldn’t be nearly as valuable as a player.
I realize its not the exactly the same thing. Maybe it’s not even close to the same thing. But the reality is, in baseball, there are certain situations where performance matters more. IMO, a player’s ability to perform at his best in those situations is what makes him an MVP or a Cy Young winner.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
I don't think the RISP analogy is appropriate
But the reality is, in baseball, there are certain situations where performance matters more.
Definitely. I’m just not necessarily sure, for two teams who are (talent-wise) on the cusp of qualifying for the playoffs, winning in September necessarily means more. If we’d won more games in April, we’ve won the division by August. If we hadn’t gone on that great run in April, we’re out of it by the All-Star Game. How are those wins/losses any less vital than the ones in September?
Also, of the stats that everyone is quoting regarding the last few starts made by Carp and Waino – by the middle of September we’d basically won the division (in fact I’m pretty sure we were pulling away at the start of the month). Should we not, therefore, down-grade the value of those games, because we’d already pretty much won? Waino made at least 3 (if not 4) starts after we had the division sewn up.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
we got hot in April because of Brian Barden and Joe Thurston
see, the thing is, you’re assuming that we’re downgrading the value of the games in April, when I’m not sure that’s what anyone is saying. most of the commenters arguing with you are saying that the value of pressure-games exist and have WEIGHT. just because we say that doesn’t mean the early games suddenly magically have no weight at all.
your strawman logic does not follow.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I see no strawman in my argument there, I'm not sure what you're getting at
indeed, it appears to be you building a strawman by making the assertion that I’m saying that your position is that the early games have NO weight. I am not.
I am saying that your position is that the games later in the season have MORE importance. That is what you are saying. By definition, that means the games earlier in the year have LESS importance, relatively.
The thing is, you’re assuming that we’re downgrading the value of the games in April, when I’m not sure that’s what anyone is saying.
If you’re saying that the games in August/September are more important, then I think that is what you’re saying. Otherwise, I don’t see why we should consider the August/Sept stats of our pitchers any differently.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
no, because it's not a comparison!
you have said, over and over, that there is NO value to it.
we’re saying there is.
we argue this.
you say then that we’re saying a portion of the game has LESS VALUE.
that’s not what we’re saying!
you keep arguing.
uhhhhh that’s a strawman.
All we’re saying is that it has a weight. How much that weight should be is debatable. But we’re NOT saying that all of a sudden the weight of spring games is ZERO.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
I've conceded that you're right about the main part of the argument
But I still don’t see this strawman – a strawman argument would be when I attribute you to a position that you do not hold and then argue against it.
The position I attribute to you is that “you think performance in games earlier in the season, in low-pressure situations, in April etc. is of less value than performance in games later in the season”. That appears to be the entire crux of your argument, to which I have conceded that you are correct.
Then you said
you’re assuming that we’re downgrading the value of the games in April, when I’m not sure that’s what anyone is saying.
but that IS precisely what you’re saying. If you say the games in September have more value, the games in April have less value. And I agree with you.
I’m just not sure how this argument in any way represents a strawman or that I, in any way, misrepresented your position. You suggested I was represented your position as “The April games have NO weight” (which I interpreted as “no value”), which I was not.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
I JUST THINK
they mean more because there is more pressure later in the season then the beginning, like a buddy of mine said he only watches baseball after the all star break because thats when it matters. Now i countered and said it matters to a few teams before that because divisional leads can get way out of hand with that ideology… but none the less a valid point, the playoff race really heats up after the break and pitchers have more pressure on them to go longer and be more efficient
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
It might be a valid point
but what does it actually mean, in real terms? That wins matter more in that time period? I would dispute that.
If the Cards didn’t go on that ridiculously good run in April/early May, we’d have been effectively eliminated before the All-Star break, and all of Carp and Waino’s late season heroics could STILL have taken place, for nothing. So, doesn’t that mean (seen in that light) that the early season stats were MORE important?
In the regular season, I’m yet to see how or why players who do better in high-pressure situations and worse in low-pressure situations are preferable to players who do better in low-pressure situations and worse in high-pressure ones, if you get my meaning.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
i realize that 3.15 ERA is still good
but compared to the 1.90 (final 3 months Waino) and 2.06 (last 15 starts Carp) that IS a big differecne.
Milt Thompson FTW!
ERA is garbage
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Also
I suspect if you look at the first 3 months of Lincecum’s ERA, it would be much better than Waino’s, and also Carp’s, and that Carp would’ve missed a bunch of starts in that time too.
Why is that less important than the last 3 months? Do wins in July-September count double or something?
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
When one win means so much?
Basically. You can’t just close your eyes and forget pressure exists. Pressure affects the mind which is hard to quantify.
by Mulliganstew on Nov 20, 2009 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I am not suggesting pressure doesn't exist
I am asserting that I do not think a pitcher who performs better under pressure is necessarily better. You forget that the absolutely inherent fact in someone who performs “better” (than average, than an alternative person) under pressure is that they perform worse when they’re not under pressure.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
the absolutely inherent fact
wow, prove this one.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
I think I worded that clumsily
what I mean is, the assertion seems to be “Carp/Waino/Lincecum had similarly good seasons, but Carp and Waino did better than Lincecum under pressure”. The inherent fact therefore being that Carp and Waino did WORSE than Lincecum when not under pressure. That’s what I’m getting at.
Why should we give them CREDIT for better performance under pressure, and not, say, give Lincecum equal credit for outperforming Waino/Carp in lower pressure situations? Regardless of the pressure, a win’s a win.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
part of it is also the context of how they get their outs
the team had a disturbing habit of swinging in the other direction and going “it’s the Pirates + it’s Carpenter… let’s slack and eat chili dogs!”
so a strikeout pitcher like Lincecum will always look better when his team collapses behind him, while Adam and Carp may go in with exactly the same intensity, stuff, and command, and then boom, Boog is not where Boog ought to be.
and this is why we don’t believe in wins, and why — in this particular season — low-pressure situations have a misleading valuation. if the Cardinals did not have so many damn TESSes, I wouldn’t believe it at all, frankly.
High-pressure situations, on the other hand, are pretty much all the same animal, i.e. more difficult. No matter why they’re high-pressure.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
crap, I mentioned chili dogs
early lunch…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
cheers, Felonius
I’ll have a drink in your honor
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
laters
I’m off home in a minute anyhow. Hopefully our discussions have given the rest of the board something to pick over!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
i think that a pitcher who performs
better under pressure IS better.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
dun-dun-dun-da-da-dun-dun
“under pressure” / david bowie falsetto
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Fucking awesome song
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 21, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I think an issue with the Cy Young
that Burwell sort of touched upon, is what are we really measuring? Are we measuring the pitcher with the best “stuff,” or are we measuring the pitcher with the best season?
I think it should be the latter, and if it is, then I don’t think Lincecum should win. If we’re just measuring the best “stuff,” then he probably wins every year, and that’s boring. How a pitcher does down the stretch when his team is in a playoff race is important to determining a pitcher’s value. If he falters under pressure or fatigue, then how can you say he’s the better pitcher? It’s not right to say the April/May games don’t matter, but you can’t legitimately disagree that there is far less pressure on a team and on a player in those games.
I’m a big fan of sabermetics, advanced stats, whatever, but I also love baseball, and the “intangible” parts of the game are what make it exciting for me. You could crunch numbers all day and figure out who is statistically the best player, but at some point you have to step away from the numbers and watch the game.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
And watch the game HARD, goddammit!
Seriously, though, I agree – it’s a difficult question. I couldn’t really find significant fault in an argument for any of the pitchers mentioned, and I think those three could all have won for different reasons, depending on how you approach that question of what should’ve happened based on what the pitcher did vs what did happen. Part of the beauty of sport, and the reason why we all watch it, is the narratives that occur when what SHOULD happen and what DID happen diverge….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
the Cy Young...
is awarded on the basis of a bunch of individual subjective opinions about which pitcher is most outstanding. The sooner everyone realizes that a beauty contest is subjective, the better.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 20, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
strikeouts are the bikini portion
of the pageant.
for position players, HR’s are the sexy bikini, and RBI’s i guess would be lingerie.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
There's a lingerie section in pageants?
I knew the evening wear was getting more and more scandalous but geez…
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Miss Victoria's Secret?
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
lingerie? you're confusing pageants with striptease.
not that you can be blamed.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Yeah, that is an important issue
And Burwell touched on it, then veered away from it and off a cliff. That’s what so frustrating.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Joe Jackson's Song on Voting for Vasquez
“Is he really going to vote for him?
Is he really going to hand him the CY Young?
Is he really going to vote for him?
‘Cause If my eyes don’t deceive me there’s something going wrong around here…
around here…”
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
by The MooCow on Nov 20, 2009 9:16 AM EST reply actions 7 recs
That is awesome on at least two levels.
Rec’d.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
I think you meant Moooochos Grassy-ass
Free Milton
by all4tookie on Nov 20, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Also rec'd
I’m handing them out today…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Just a neighborly comment
This is further evidence of the devolution from performance to stat geeks. Most of whom could never play the game to begin with. The BBWA have included these bloggers and SABER geeks over the last few years. These people populate GM roles and player development roles in organization. Baseball has a civil war going on in that the two sides are traditional evaluators vs SABER geeks.
by PinchHitLancePainter on Nov 20, 2009 9:30 AM EST reply actions
I dunno
What’s wrong with combining stats related decisions with decisions based on the psychology of the players involved?
by Mulliganstew on Nov 20, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I Still Prefer...
…to use a cowbination of both as I see value in both. The problem with using an entirely quantified approach to baseball is that not everything is quantifiable, and not every variable is or even can be accownted for. The eyes are still good for something: when I watch Chris Carpenter pitch I can see how good he is, I don’t need saberstats to confirm what I already know via first hand experience. However, the new metrics do go into depth and flesh out a player’s performance in a way which helps define and re-define what we cowsider to be good or bad performances. For example, saberstats helped this cow see that the hated Jason Marquis’s ‘04 season looked pretty good on the surface (15-7, 3.71 era), but a look at the moore advanced stats (BABIP, FIP, WAR) showed his year to be nothing special. There are better examples but its the only one off the top of the MooCow’s head, plus I get to use the HATED Jason Marquis, but I think u know where I’m moooseyin’…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
Yeah, I think I agree with that
there’s still a TON of things you can’t really quantify with stats. I have real trouble with the suggestion that you can actually glean a lot of real comparative info from looking different pitches in isolation, and I’m not sure how informative a lot of the pitchFx movement plots etc. are in actually figuring out the effectiveness of a pitcher, as pitches aren’t thrown in a perfect vacuum (I don’t mean physically, I mean, for instance, a great changeup is a lot more effective just after you’ve thrown a great power-fastball for a strike, for instance, and the minutiae of all these interconnected events is pretty much impossible to measure).
I also have several views that I’m really keen on but which I can’t particularly prove with any stats (I don’t think catcher defense is very important because I think the real impact of the differences between catchers at the mlb level is very slight, for instance, but I gots no way to prove that to any of you! It’s just a theory, really).
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
It was mentioned before
And someone sent me a great link to Baseball Fangraphs about the abuses of sabremetrics, but some guys (Law included in this one) put the cart before the horse when they constantly use the predictable stats to measure greatness for this year. It reminds me of Happy Gilmore when Chris Farley as the bus driver talks about how:
“That Veronica Vaughn is one piece of ass, I know from experience dude. If you know what I mean.”
Sandler: “No, you don’t”
Farley: “Well, not me personally but a guy I know. Him and her got it on. Wooo-eee!”
Sandler: “No, they didn’t”
Farley: “No, no, no they didn’t. But you could imagine what it’d be like if they did, right…?”
That’s what Law’s argument is like. Either that or, well if Vazquez had a couple more starts, then you’d see, I predict he’d have been better than Carpenter. Either way, it negates that whether through luck or skill, or nook or crook, or however they say it, Vazquez looks better going forward, although maybe not so much looking back…?
and i wonder
in the what actually was vs. what should’ve been argument, and projections and all, we often look at a hitter’s counting numbers and say, “and that was in only so-many at-bats! just think, over a full season…”, but nobody does this extrapolation with carpenter, the reulting numbers being perhaps more indicative of how good he was this year, and likely enough to garner the cy.
i’m not saying that should be done. but rather should be considered by those on the what-should-have-been boat who favor stats that are more useful for projection than for evaluating past performance.
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
No offense
But this:
This is further evidence of the devolution from performance to stat geeks. Most of whom could never play the game to begin with.
is really obnoxious. Repeatedly calling them “geeks” and saying they could never play the game to begin with is a pretty lame defense mechanism. Why are you so threatened by people who enjoy baseball in a different way than you enjoy it? Also, my guess would be that there are just as many people that are into the “new” stats that actually could play the game as there are that hate the “new” stats. In fact, there are a growing number of current players that are using these statistics to their advantage (including Zack Greinke, for one example). If you don’t like sabermetrics – fine, that’s your prerogative, but the venom towards people who also love the game and are just trying to understand it in different ways is getting old.
by roarke on Nov 20, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yes it is
same old tired argument. I would prefer they tried coming up with some new stuff to use in sabr fights.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Don't show up at a Sabr fight unarmed
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
How long have you been wanting to use that?
preemptive self TWSS
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
actually just did a search on the fly, thinking it was appropriate.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
Don't show up to a sabr fight with pitching wins
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
billy beane
was a bonus baby (he didn’t pan out, but that’s besides the point)
"Some days I feel like the hypotenuse in a love triangle; others as if my lucky number is pi."
There is something of a civil war going on, that is clear.
The thing is, nobody has more of a vested interest in their team’s success than the big decision makers, i.e., the GMs and their ilk. And they are discovering more and more that there is something to this advanced statistical approach. It cannot totally replace all other methods of evaluation, but it is a powerful tool, and the methods continue to improve.
When Burwell asks “why don’t wins matter?” it reminds me of a recent interview that Theo Epstein gave where he had to tell the sports talk radio guys, in so many words, “forget RBIs! We don’t really use them. They don’t actually give us good information.”
The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and the GMs know this. The smart ones are using these new methods to their advantage. It is not so simple as “opinion A versus opinion B” because we are at the point where many older stats are simply obsolete and inherently inferior. The people who rely on these stats are, logically, feeling threatened. The smart ones adapt and learn about the new approaches. The dumb ones just rely on the good old schoolyard tactics and lash out.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
People who play sports aren't necessarily the best at theorising/strategising about them
I think that’s a big problem in a lot of games (and believe me, it’s far worse in games like soccer than it is in most American sports). I play volleyball, and have for over a decade, but it’s only really in the last two years or so I’ve got any insight into the tactics and strategy in any way at all…
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 20, 2009 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
It's kind of like how thepainguy rants against the "extension" cliche in batting.
Not that thepainguy (Something O’Leary? I didn’t want to say your name wrong so I went with thepainguy) didn’t ever play baseball, but he didn’t play it to the extent that Joe Morgan did.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
(sigh)
In what kind of neighborhood do you live? One where you yell “Geek!” at your neighbor as he walks out his front door?
Now with extra feisty!
by spants on Nov 20, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I love this comment
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
he lives on campus
Alpha Beta house, to be precise
by mattyp on Nov 20, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Lab geeks don't leave the lab
it’s very similar
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
every lab worth its credentials has a crash couch
well, most of the time people slept there.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
The first rule of the Interlabs is
Do not talk about the Interlabs.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
In all fairness
were we previously under the impression that most sportswriters DID play baseball at any level more advanced than SABR ‘geeks’ did?
Just because Burwell was in Yearbook instead of Math Club in high school, makes him no less of a geek than Law.
This is stupid.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
On Burwell, Wins, and being "really, really mad"
Let me start by saying I think Lincecum was a valid selection and am in no way upset. I also think there is a lot of room to debate what the cy young should reward and what criteria should be used to pick the winner – I’m fine with people having different beliefs on this and voting according to their differing beliefs. I’m not even upset that Carp was left of two ballots – in both cases for pitchers who (at least arguably) had better seasons than Carp in terms of the “overall value” way those voters felt they should vote.
That said, I think some of you die hard saber advocates need to stop and look in the mirror a second. Many, certainly not all, saber-minded folks (not necessarilly even on this site) are totally dismissive of anything non-saber. What’s worse in my mind, is so many fail to acknowledge or even hear out people who criticize your methods. Not even criticize, merely point out that they don’t tell the whole story. Isn’t this exactly how “traditional baseball men” treated the saber crowd for so long (and I’m sure some still do, but not nearly as many as the saber crowd would like to believe).
When Saber advocates first started saying, for example, that ERA could be very misleading and doesn’t really give a complete picture (and sometimes gives a downright fraudulent picture) of a pitcher’s performance, isn’t this how you were treated? Dismissed, not listened to, not read – just started listenting/reading your argument and then they “got a headaches” from your “nonsense” and they just “skimmed the rest.” Any of that sound familiar?
I’m not a big fan of Burwell. I don’t like that he refers to saber people as “geeks clutching their spreadsheets” or something like that. But his point isn’t that wins should define the cy young. It’s asking why are they completely disregarded? Now, before you start spouting formulas and “proofs” at me to show why they are meaningless – I get your arguments, and mostly agree with them. Wins are/historically have been, grossly over-valued. No question.
But to completely disregard them, to laugh at them as irrelevant seems an overreaction. What they need to be, is viewed in context of how they are obtained – to understand what that stat means – and what it doesn’t mean. When viewed that way, they may not mean a whole lot – but they still mean something. Same is true for ERA. It means more than wins. It probably means less than some other pitching metrics – good arguments for this, but have problems with other metrics as well.
What I think the problem is, where the disconnect really comes into play is here: Saber metrics suffer from essentially the same errors and biases as traditional stats. They are formulas that measure who is best at that formula (this argument seems to be widely recognized about UZR, for instance). Fielding Independant Pitching is derived from a formula, as you all know, that was created by a person on the basis of certain presumptions and theories about baseball and pitching. So was ERA. Both suffer from that inherent bias. You can make great and convincing arguements that FIP is a better indicator than ERA – and I agree with them. But to say that FIP actually cancels out the “luck” in pitching is falacious. It doesn’t – it tries to by making certain presumptions (also defensible with other studies etc – but this isn’t a disertation on FIP or any one metric).
I don’t accept as true many of the underlying presumptions (and I know where those presumptions come from – I just don’t think the information they are based on mandates many of the presumptions) that underly saber stats. That doesn’t make them useless – in fact I think the are very useful – more so generally than “traditional” stats. The negative reaction to saber minded people as a whole and the use of saber stats is the tunnel vision many seem to get when the get into saber metrics. The interview with law yesterday was a good example of this. I don’t think he was treated particularly well, but I also thought he was pretty arrogant and dismissive. One of the hosts (should have been more diplamatic about it) brought up a good point. One very strong saber presumption is that strikeouts are the best things that can happen for a pitcher. Certainly that is true, at least in a sense (I think it is more complex than that and should be qualified – but again this isn’t about my opinion on any one metric or presumption).
Law was talking about Lincecum’s strikeouts making him so much more valuable and that his value was demonstrated in part because the defense behind him was worse that the cardinals defense. The host brought up a counter point that, isn’t there something to be said for knowing you have a good defense and using it to your advantage. Essentially saying that it isn’t luck to intentionally send groundballs to your very good defense. Sure it might make your peripheral stats look not quite as good – you’ll have a lower k rate – your BABIP may end up looking “unsustainably low” and your pitching will be called lucky by a certain segment of the population – but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong thing to do to help your team win games (what baseball is about, not stats – be they traditional or saber). I won’t go into the arguable advantages of inducing groundballs rather than striking people out – again this post isn’t about those arguments – just suffice to say I believe good arguments can be raised along those lines when properly contextualized and qualified.
Law acted like he didn’t know what they were talking about, didn’t address the point at all and basically said something like you don’t know anything about analysis. Being dismissive and arrogant about valid (or at least arguably valid) criticisms is exactly what was done to the saber crowd for years. Now that they have some recognition and acceptance – many now seem to want to be the new authority and dismiss any criticism of how they got there.
Bottom line – all stats, no matter how derived, must be viewed in context. And not just context of other stats. There is more analysis than quantitative analysis. I’m not talking about “my eyes” (though I think they are useful too) – I’m talking about people’s brains. They don’t just work in terms of numbers. It’s analysing the number, realizing what they mean and what they don’t that matters most in any of these discussions.
It just seems that it’s taken saber people a long time to get people to realize that their numbers matter. Now that people realize that, however, they seem unwilling to discuss, dissmissive, arrogant, and often downright rude to anyone who want to question exactly how to interpret their numbers or say they are not the end all be all of everything. That’s what angers people – just like it angered saber people when they were treated that way (and sometimes still are).
by fltfire on Nov 20, 2009 11:12 AM EST reply actions 8 recs
there's no way I am reading all that
/pulling a gdm
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
sorry
Realized after posting probably should be a fan post or something – but also didn’t want start multiple threats on essentially the same topic
use subheaders
and bold-face.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
I actually read the whole thing.
I can’t believe I read the WHOLE thing.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
attractive ladies are the only ones allowed to pull a gdm matty
come on man, we’ve been over this!
of course nothing really ever gets pulled down here in the basement
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 20, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah...sure
sorry…hee hee
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I can't believe I the whole thing
I actually read it. Good summary of how I feel actually.
by Mulliganstew on Nov 20, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed
Why can’t more of us like both traditional and advanced stats?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
See...
…that’s what I wuz trying to say, except I have a cow brain and can barely scratch my name in the ground with two hooves and a stick…
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
You should trade some of those stomachs for some more brains.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I Would, But...
…I need every one of those stomachs for all the pizza I graze on…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
I totally rec'd this
Very well said, and thorough too.
Any attempt at evaluating or quantifying something has to make certain presumptions. That’s how you determine how you will measure the thing you’re looking at.
A similar example would be IQ tests. A professor of mine in college made a very good point about IQ tests and how many grains of salt to take them with. Even the best IQ test is still based on assumptions of what “intelligence” is. Some people are going to disagree with the definition of intelligence from the start. Some are going to disagree on whether or not the test does a good job of measuring it. And so on. In the end, the only thing you really know, 100%, from an IQ test is that you have measured that which the test tests. It’s important to keep this in mind when using an IQ score.
Scientists and the like understand this, just as I’m sure the originators of FIP and tRA understand this. But as a saber-inclined fan I am occasionally guilty of being too confident in other peoples’ assumptions.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I have a saying
“The more I learn, the more I realize I know nothing”
Things are much more complicated than most people want to acknowledge or understand. The more I learn about a subject the more I start to understand I really don’t know much at all. When I make assumptions based off someones else’s work that I fully don’t understand what does that say about me? To quote UZR data to make assumptions about someones defense without fully understanding how UZR works is pointless.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
I mean, not entirely pointless. But taken to the logical extreme, one has to admit that they are entirely relying on someone else’s flawed assumption by simply quoting a stat. It’s an amount of trust that is not entirely logical and wouldn’t satisfy a robot.
On the other hand, being human means living in an actual world where knowledge is almost always flawed, so you just have to put a certain amount of trust into things or else you’ll be paralyzed. This is just as true for trusting that your spouse actually does love you as it is for deciding whether or not FIP is better than tRA for the purpose of x y and z.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
i tend to be a rather calm and collected person
I almost never get angry or upset about anything anymore. I tend to have a strong sense of empathy in that I can easily see the other persons point of view. I can understand people’s view that wins do matter. Because at the end of season wins get you in the playoffs not FIP. And to completely write them off because you have more faith in stats than wins is crazy. But to say that you fail to recognize that wins are a measurement of a team not a player. That a pitcher alone can’t win a game but needs a team effort to do so. So relying to heavy on wins to judge a player without judging his team seems foolish.
I do think though people rely to heavy on advanced stats to make judgments. Each stat has a plus and a minus to them. Without understanding the plus and minuses to each stat it makes it difficult to evaluate them. Like FIP doesn’t take in account HR rates so you use xFIP. But xFIP doesn’t take in account a pitcher that knows how to work a count to induce a weak fly ball. Baseball is so complicated and that is why I love it so much.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Right
Baseball probably lends itself more than most sports to statistical evaluation, but it’s still so damn hard to know things for sure. Which is awesome. If the stat-inventing types came up with the actual be-all end-all “unified baseball field theory” stat, that would be a huge loss in a way. There’s no more mystery, and no more progress. It’s fun to try to improve things and improve one’s understanding.
It is unfortunate that stat-oriented people sometimes fall into the same flawed assumptions and false certainties and biases as everyone else. But that’s just part of being human.
We’re getting very philosophical today. DanUp’s work of fiction prompted it too. I guess Proust really was a neuroscientist.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I don't think that will ever happen
Because there will always be a “what happened vs. what should have happened” debate.
Not afraid to nitpick
You mean the unified field theory of baseball will never happen?
I wasn’t assuming it was actually possible, just being hypothetical. But that’s another good point.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
The certificate I paid $2 for
says my IQ is 132…maybe I should have paid more…
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
i don't really understand this argument.
Pitcher wins have a kernel of truth to them. It’s hard to be an awful pitcher and win 20 games, sure.
But there’s a big jump from “wins have some basis in reality” to “I should worry about wins.”
If I want to know who is the tallest guy in a room of 30 guys, I COULD check all their shirt sizes. Odds are the tallest guys are wearing the XLs. But it wouldn’t be the best way to find out who the tallest guy is, because the heavy guys will be wearing the XLs, too. While there might be a kernel of truth to trying to associate height with shirt size, I’d be better off just trying to measure height.
Pitcher wins aren’t interesting to me not because they have NO value, but because the other stats tell us much more. If I’m actually measuring the height of each guy in the room, why do I want to hear somebody complain about ignoring their shirt sizes?
Pitcher wins don’t add any information. The stat is so mixed up with luck, defense, offensive support, and ten other factors that the noise rate is really high. Pitcher wins is not a stat that is complementary with other stats, like looking at FIP but also groundball rates. Using pitcher wins doesn’t give you more information about pitcher performance than other stats – just more noise.
And whatever Law said is not representative of all “stat geeks”. I don’t know anybody who thinks groundballs are stupid. Groundballs are hugely important, which is why tRA exists.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Nov 20, 2009 12:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
I think the best way to say it
is that they have no value, but they do correlate to better pitchers.
That said, the correlation isn’t all that high.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
remember that stretch when only Wellemeyer won his start?
yeah. good times. he’s pretty good.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
And
Correlation != Causation, so even if they correlated higher, that doesn’t necessarily imply that they really mean anything about pitcher performance.
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
I agree.
Just sayin’.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 21, 2009 2:46 AM EST up reply actions
I fucking hate this argument.
I’ll tell you why:
Before germs were discovered and scientists figured out that people are primates whose bodies are affected by various pathogens and have a specific set of immune reactions, medical treatment often boiled down to explanations based on evil spirits, demonic possession, aura problems or other supernatural bullshit. When modern germ theory, antiseptic practices, antibiotics and other scientific advances were made, no one was like “naturally, we should take these new developments in stride and remember to keep in mind the value of a good seance to cast out demons.” Instead, doctors discarded those useless and supernatural treatments, and anyone who attempts to diagnose you as having a bad case of the evil spirit energy is a crank or a moron.
Perhaps this sounds a bit prickly, since I’m implying that people like Burwell are cranks or morons. That’s really not my problem- I’m not interested in how it sounds. Sabermetricians are not dismissing evidence-based arguments with any merit or taking stances on uncertain grounds. The simple fact is that stats like wins really are useless. The fact that they are dismissed for being useless is not a good reason to say sabermetricians are being big jerks and not listening to contrary views. Instead, wins have been debunked to the point that even NFL players realize wins are useless, and “saber geeks” are tired of talking about them.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Nov 20, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
except when you do?
Sabermetricians are not dismissing evidence-based arguments with any merit or taking stances on uncertain grounds.
And that’s never happened on VEB.
The fact that they are dismissed for being useless is not a good reason to say sabermetricians are being big jerks and not listening to contrary views.
And that’s never happened on VEB.
Just because persuasion is an art and not a science doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. People are much more appreciative — in every sense of the word — of stats arguments which explain rather than deride.
You don’t have to go around calling people cranks and morons in order to convince them of something.
I have no numbers to back that up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
In other words, if you want more people to start to understand and use stats
Not caring what they think is rather counterproductive.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is actually a different argument that I also hate.
So, the obvious superiority of FIP over ERA isn’t enough to convince a person that it’s better; instead, I have to kiss their ass also.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
it's not ass-kissing. it's just coping with the realities of existence.
if you get frustrated by people coming into game threads and talking about fielding percentage, the best way to get that to stop is to explain things clearly. take it as an opportunity to teach instead of an irritation.
if people get shot down with “duh! fielding percentage is stupid!” odds are they’re going to say “SABR geeks are assholes. and this UZR stuff is probably stupid too.” if somebody says, “I think fielding percentage isn’t a good way to talk about skill in fielding, because FP% just measures error rates on balls that fielder actually reaches, not all the balls that a fielder with poor range never gets close to,” you may (MAY!) actually convince somebody to change their mind.
that’s not kissing the person’s ass, that’s just taking the opportunity to teach.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
See I am a little slicker than that
I ask them why they consider fielding percentage to be a good way to evaluate players defense.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
either that, or you're a turing computer?
“How do you feel about fielding percentage?”
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:19 AM EST up reply actions
reminds me of my second-most-favorite xkcd post, EVAR
link
so brilliant.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Also
There is a difference between kissing someone’s ass and being civil. Sometimes it requires a bit of patience when one party is initially hostile, but it’s often worth it.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
shut up.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Fine, if you don't want to listen to me explain about the importance of civility in discussions, then you can just go straight to hell!
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Jeez, you civility geeks
with your niceness spreadsheets and your geniality stats….
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:20 AM EST up reply actions
There's a vast difference between a person in a (hypothetical) game thread,
and Bryan Burwell talking about how stat geeks with their dang spread sheets should get off his lawn. I can think of no popular sabermetricians who confronts curiosity or ignorance with hatred (the very best place to learn about saber stats is the comment section of a popular saber blog).
Your commenter sounds like a pretty reasonable person (hell, he’s already half way there since he’s attempting to quantify defense with a stat, just the wrong one). If a commenter comes into a thread in which we are discussing stats and starts talking about how stats are stupid because they don’t show anything about the real game, spouting insults and cliches in equal measure, they’re a troll, and they’re dealt with kindly but firmly. The same approach can be taken with moronic journalists.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
then ignore trolls!
omg just flag them, it’s easier.
for every nasty response — even to an idiot — there are literally a hundred lurkers reading through threads who will eventually feel the need to chime in.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Not sure what you're saying.
Are you agreeing with me?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i'm saying your troll radar may be off
and besides, it has continued to boggle me —
if a commenter is baiting, why feed them with angry insults?
if a commenter is not baiting, why make them angry with angry insults?
neither of these seems to serve stats, geeks, or stats geeks. and if your premise is that nobody did anything to provoke anybody and every saber guy is above reproach, that’s a fine bit of selective reading. even on a relatively safe haven like VEB.
(which still has the best bloggers in baseball.)
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
can we seriously flag Bryan Burwell?
because that would be awesome
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
well, if you want to continue to argue with them
then you’ll just continue to be argumentative. If you hate it so much, why don’t you get them on your side instead of whining about kissing their ass? because that just tells them that you’re not interested in convincing them, and then they’ll turn around and call stats geeks arrogant assholes who only want to talk to each other.
Not everyone learns in the same way and in the same style. Every teacher with a required curriculum figures that out, and fast. Sure, you’re going to get ignorant morans who just want to lash out at you for every wrong their math prof ever did to them — or asshat journalists with axes to grind. So why take it personally, and perpetuate their ignorance if you hate their ignorance so much?
But if you’re really not interested in expanding the audience, that also gets real obvious, real fast.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Just wanted to relate this.
I hadn’t noticed your new avatar, and I had no idea who you were for a moment.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
hahahaha.
well, I’m not completely happy with it, but it remains a Yadi to second pickoff, albeit with Boog and Wainer, and it is mostly green in a crowd of red.
but can we ever really know, Cardinals645? can we?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
...
No…I suppose we don’t…
/Eyes suspiciously.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 21, 2009 2:46 AM EST up reply actions
Um.
well, if you want to continue to argue with them then you’ll just continue to be argumentative.
why don’t you get them on your side instead of whining about kissing their ass?There is a difference between someone who is ignorant (not informed, in need of education) and someone who is a belligerent douchebag. How exactly would you suggest I talk to Ken Rosenthal to educate him about the error of his ways?
But if you’re really not interested in expanding the audience, that also gets real obvious, real fast.What is this even supposed to mean? There are as many people in the world out for nothing else than to grind their axes and spout their shit as there are curious people who are intelligent enough to appreciate sabermetrics.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
well I think everyone here has given up on Ken Rosenthal
we’re not even sure… what he is exactly.
I’m saying anyone’s open-ness to explaining vs. arguing is very, very obvious. It’s not the other person. It’s your response to the other person. When you outright say you don’t give a damn about what they think, well gee, how do you expect a reasonable discussion with them?
Having watched a bunch of you jump on people who just didn’t word their comments correctly and hug the right margin trying to prove they’re wrong, it’s very hard for me — who likes learning about the stats and applying them — to dismiss out of hand everyone who comes by and expresses anxiety and frustration about stats people. Somebody rolled their eyes at them, somebody told them they were idiots, somebody pressed the Post button on all that.
If you think that doesn’t have an appreciable effect on the number of idiotic statements you encounter, then… I guess you really don’t care what they think.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
You're arguing with someone else.
When you outright say you don’t give a damn about what they think, well gee, how do you expect a reasonable discussion with them?
I hope you’re not referring to me with this- because that would be putting words in my mouth. I said:
Perhaps this sounds a bit prickly, since I’m implying that people like Burwell are cranks or morons. That’s really not my problem- I’m not interested in how it sounds.
“People like Burwell.” There are plenty of examples of saber-geeks giving out advice, being mild-mannered and generally not being douchebags, in the same way as very cool sportswriters like Goold or Posnanski exist. The stereotyping is becoming tiresome.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Wait a minute. . .
FIP is superior to ERA in a predictive sense.
But, ERA is superior to FIP when looking at the actual results of a pitcher’s pitching.
I tend to believe that the Cy Young should be awarded on the basis of results, not could-have’s, should-have’s, if’s and but’s.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
the question is not the actual results but what input came from the pitcher.
if one pitcher has a great era because he has a terrific defense behind him, why give him an award to say he’s a better pitcher?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I think that's an extreme example. . .
and a strawman, because this season, at least, such an extreme example doesn’t exist.
At the end of the day, I think any of Lincecum, Wainwright and Carpenter were worthy award winners. I would have voted Wainwright/Lincecum/Carp in that order, and I am open to arguments that Javy Vazquez and/or Dan Haren should bump Carp from the third spot, but that’s based purely on an IP/GS argument, and not on any component-based stats argument.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
i'm just talking about the difference between era and fip. era doesn't JUST measure the actual
results of a pitcher’s pitching. era measures a bunch of other things as well. that’s why people use FIP.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
but FIP doesn't measure actual results at all. . .
it attempts to measure what a pitcher’s RA would be given the average values of the events that he gives up
That’s why I strongly prefer stats like ERA to component-based stats like FIP or tRA for backward-looking purposes. ERA of course has major limitations, but it at least attempts to tell you what actually happened. FIP and tRA don’t try to do that. They break down what actually happened into component parts and then try to tell you, in a stat roughly scaled to ERA or RA what you can expect to happen going forward based on the same performance.
FIP and tRA are slightly preferable to ERA for predictive purposes, but far less useful when determining what actually happened.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
FIP tells you not only what should happen, but also
what likely would have happened in a context-neutral situation based solely on components.
Maybe a pitcher should be rewarded for how lucky or unlucky he was during the course of a season. But he shouldn’t be rewarded for team defense or park factors.
Free Milton
but context is not neutral
According to FIP, a pitcher who gives up a lead-off HR and scatters 6 walks over the course of a 9 inning game and the pitcher who walks 6 straight and then gives up a grand slam are the same pitcher.
Clearly, their actual results were not hte same because of context.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
Can’t really argue that.
I find it hard to imagine that the faults of FIP as a backward looking metric (timing, reliance on strikeouts) are more dangerous than ERA’s reliance on team defense. Anyone on the Mets/Royals is at a huge disadvantage already.
Free Milton
I support looking behind ERA at team defense. . .
but only in extreme circumstances. IMHO, the differences between the Giants and Cardinals and Braves team defenses were too negligible to use as bases upon which to determine the Cy Young Award.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
That's on the team level
There’s going to be a whooooole lot of variance for one pitcher. There’s almost a certainty that at least one of Carp or Wainwright or Lincecum or Vazquez received dramatically different defense. (If you flip a quarter 10 times you’re not going to get 5 heads every time)
UZR adjusted ERAs are what you’re looking for…..unfortunately not out for 2009.
Not afraid to nitpick
You can argue that
if you don’t believe in timing (and I’m one that doesn’t). Until someone can prove to me that pitchers have a propensity to giving up more homeruns in certain situations than in others (and there’s a lot of variables you have to neutralize) then that hypothetical is a matter of luck. Personally, I eschew crediting pitchers for luck.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
See, I think that what is often described as luck. . .
is really something that is just impossible to quantify, rather than true luck.
Of course, I don’t have any numbers to back that up. ;<)
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I agree that in pitcher valuation luck shouldn't be a factor
and that timing is majorly (if not all) luck.
But the case can easily be made that “best pitcher season” should include luck factors. We might not expect it to continue, but it did produce the best results.
Free Milton
ok, so first of all, being able to create some fictional character who creates a problem
is not the same as logically defeating a metric. are there many pitchers who, through bad luck, give up 6 walks in a row? i don’t think so. would any of them be allowed to remain in the game to complete the full 9 innings? no.
i can create scenarios that defeat the purposes ERA, too.
the question is not whether some theoretical pitcher could pitch in such a way as to have a great FIP but terrible results or a terrible FIP but good results. the question is whether FIP is a good way to measure the vast majority of pitchers.
i doubt there are any pitchers that regularly give up 6 walks in a row. honestly, you couldn’t be a very effective pitcher long-term giving up 6 walks a game in the majors, in any order.
your scenario is almost certainly one based on luck, not skill. “scattering” hits and walks is probably not a skill. not giving up hits and walks probably is. FIP is valuable because the two pitchers you cite are probably just as likely to pitch like crap over a season.
you would be hard-pressed to find an example of a pitcher who had the defect of giving up a ton of walks in a single inning but otherwise not giving up any walks as a repeated attribute over a whole season.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Well, we all know decent pitchers who seem to lose it
either through fatigue or starting slow.
But that wasn’t really my point. The point is that if we are looking backwards, actual results are a better indicator of actual results than context-neutral, performance based stats.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
stats that tell you actual results are better at telling you actual results than
stats that don’t!
wow! holy circular reasoning, batman!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I don't agree with this
"scattering" hits and walks is probably not a skill.
to me, “scattering” hits and walks means that a pitcher’s % of bad pitches is lower. Consistently throwing good pitches is a skill in my book (if I were to ever write one)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
I don't think this is what "scattering" means
It means that if a pitcher is going to give up 7 hits and 4 walks in a game, there is no repeatable skill that allows said pitcher to spread them to minimize damage
Free Milton
seem to? based on what?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
nothing but observation
good pitchers generally give up less runs because they don’t have as many innings with multiple hits and walks in them. “scattering” hits and walks this way reduces the other team’s chances for runs, which makes them less likely to score multiple runs.
I don’t have a science or numbers.
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
that should be a testable hypothesis.
i agree that good pitchers give up fewer runs because they allow fewer multi-hit, multi-walk innings. I think that’s a product of allowing fewer hits and walks, though, not a product of scattering the hits and walks.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Good pitchers give up fewer runs
because they allow fewer baserunners and walks in general.
There is no evidence to suggest that certain players are better at scattering their baserunners than others.
Free Milton
I don't think good means what you think it means
I think your definition has a little too much luck and not enough skill
Free Milton
good players
are lucky that God blessed them with the abilities to perform well.
(I got all kinds of non statistical defenses)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
by 'scattering' i mean that a pitcher gives up 4 walks over 7 innings,
as opposed to 4 walks in one inning and none in the other six.
i don’t think that’s likely a skill.
if someone is consistently throwing good pitches, i would expect fewer walks or hits overall, not that they would get a bunch of hits or walks in any one inning.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
That's what I assumed you meant
and I’m saying that I think walking 4 over 7IP instead of 4 in one IP is a skill to me. (although Pinerio would be disgusted)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Carp gave up seven straight hits in one start this year.
Lincecum never did.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
or even better
By FIP, a guy who goes 9 innings, no walks but gives up 2 home runs and K’s 10 has the same value as a guy who goes 9 innings, no HR but walks 2, and k’s 0.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
i think i'd rather have the pitcher who k's 10 and gives up
2 HR. i don’t think there are a lot of successful pitchers who walk 2 people a game and strike out none over a whole season.
you could say that FIP is not very useful for looking at one game. but we’re talking about a season’s worth of data.
besides, there’s not really a good metric for looking at one game.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Everyone knows FIP breaks down at the extremes...
It’s a regression equation meant for interpolation not extrapolation.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Nov 20, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And ERA says that
the guy who walks the bases loaded every inning, strikes out 0 and manages to not give up any runs is the same as the guy who throws a perfect game with 27 strikeouts. I’ll take the latter thank you.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
oh, yes, ERA has ideosyncracies too.
a better example would be: guy strikes out the first two guys in an inning, then gives up an error, two walks, and a home run or two- and still has a 0.00 ERA.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
a k, a bb, and a hr are clearly actual results.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
what actually happened =/= what is attributable to a pitcher
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Hmmmm. . .
that’s kind of true and kind of not true.
What actually happened is made up of many components, a few of which are completely attributable to the pitcher (ignoring park effects, umpire variability, atmospheric conditions, etc.) and a few of which are partially attributable to the pitcher, partially attributable to defense, and partially attributable to luck. And all of those components are of course context-dependent to determine their value.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Why hurt him just because his pitching coach preaches pitch to contact?
Yeah a strikeout is better, but giving no thought at all to groundball approach is just as ridiculous as saying Wins are everything.
by Mulliganstew on Nov 20, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
nobody says ignore groundballs. the question was just whether fip or era was a better measure.
give me two pitchers with the same FIP and one with a better GB%, i’ll go with the groundball pitcher.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
And why should we give him 100% credit for getting good defense?
Just because he “pitched to his defense” doesn’t necessarily mean he should get credit for it.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 20, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Not really
Defense is a huge part of ERA whereas it’s not a part of FIP. The Mariners defense was ~135 runs better than the Royals defense……you would get very different ERAs for a pitcher on the Mariners vs. the same pitcher on the Royals. A pitcher on the Mariners should not be given bonus points for his ability to pitch in front of Franklin Gutierrez.
Not afraid to nitpick
Technically. . .
defense is a part of FIP in the limited instance where an OF pulls a HR back from over the defense, turning a HR into a fly ball.
/pedant
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
When he strikes a batter out,
walks him, or give up a home run.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
why does the catcher have to catch it for a walk?
or a strikeout for that matter. Put no one back there and its still a K with an ROE
Free Milton
The umps would get pissed.
But I think T-Bone is crazy enough to try it.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Do you get to change your sig for Braggin' Rights?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
he gave me permission to change it
but I’m just too lazy and inventive to do so.
I hope the Braggin’ Rights streak continues
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Even then he's not completely independent
Are you saying that pitcher with no position players behind him wouldn’t pitch a hitter differently than he does with 7 players manning the positions on the field?
Please consider any Hot Stove talk in the above comment is spoken under the assumption that the Cardinals are not signing Matt Holliday.
Oh I'm sure there was at least one guy back then who was averse to new medicine
Let’s call him, say, Dr. Joe Morgan.
Dr. Joe Morgan: “I don’t trust these new methods of health care because these people never played doctor. I still think using holy water is the most cosistent method of health care. Dr. Dave Concepcion should be in the health care hall of fame.”
*Side note: Firefox spell check didn’t flag “Concepcion.” Interesting.
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd
but you forgot the part where Dr. Joe reveals that it was he who invented bloodletting.
by Bring Back Tommy Herr! on Nov 20, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
but in an ironic twist
it turns out that the magic potions Dr. Joe used during his career actually contained useful antibiotics, he just didn’t know it.
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
damn it, jd, he's not a doctor! he's Joe Morgan!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
well, if we accept this analogy, we have to
accept that sabrmetrics doesn’t HAVE antibiotics yet. We’re at the point of saying that bleeding patients with rusty knives is stupid; we should use leeches instead, because patients survive 55% of the time with them instead of 45% with the knife.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
GET YOUR DAMN GEEK LEECHES OFFA ME!!!!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:27 AM EST up reply actions
Well said.
Glad I decided to get over my laziness and read it all.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
You lost me
When you said it wasn’t about Sabre. I just ignore all of those. Is it possible that there is a lot of projections with these posts. Non-seemies claim that Sabres ignore all arguments non-stat related. I would argue that the Sabre guys start with the basic numbers arguments and move on from there.
If you are saying they don’t buy into the clutchy, pressure situations, I have a good reason for that. IT’S COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE. Clutch to you or pressure to you, may not seem like pressure to others (I’m looking at you Cliff Lee with your feet up on the couch before game one. Get your feet off the couch and look intense goddammit, you have an interview with Costas in 10.)
Also, if your argument is on these subjective measures of value or dominance, then what am I supposed to argue? Hey your completely subjective view on this non-stats is wrong? That’s just silly. I don’t argue someone’s feelings because feelings aren’t right or wrong, they just are. I may think they are, but I can’t quantify it, so I’ll give you some stats that show that I think you’re wrong, and you’ll (not you fltfire specifically but that side of the argument) argue that I dismiss all non-stat arguments and probably never played, watched, liked the game anyway.
Why don’t we just sit here and argue favorite colors then, because that’s what it eventually becomes if you can’t dig deeper and provide statistical backup for your opinions.
Sorry if it sounded snarky, but I’m rushing to catch the lunch cart. Hasta!
Carroll and Law
this is besides the great arguments, but i was wondering if Carroll and Law replaced haren and vazquez w/ carp…..carp would have still come in second w/ 98 pts. correct?
by guillermozeliak on Nov 20, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions
FWIW. . .
Law has always been a pretty obnoxious interview, and has a reputation (more than somewhat deserved IMHO, but YMMV) of being anti-Cards.
I thought Carroll’s defense of his vote for ___________ instead of Carpenter was a good one. I think a compelling argument can be made that ___________ provided more value to his team than Carp did to his, even without getting into the more predictive combonent-based stats like FIP. I don’t necessarily agree with the argument – I think that Carp’s dominance outweighs the difference ____________’s advantage in IP and GS – but I think that it’s a valid one.
And then, when you factor in that ___________ doesn’t actually exist, that’s quite a handicap to overcome.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Emotion vs. Objectivity
This was, IMHO, an incredibly close race. Just a few votes either way in a different direction, and someone else wins. Although, assuming my math is correct, Carroll and Law weren’t enough to alter it. But still, it’s not like Lincecum ran away with the thing -
Tim Lincecum, SF — 100 Points
Chris Carpenter — 94 Points
Adam Wainwright — 90 points
That said, I really appreciate the candidness of Bernie M and Derrick G in their statements/articles – it seemed like they really wrestled with this responsibility – Goold especially. And I think that’s a good thing. Even if it is just a baseball award (as opposed to the Nobel Peace Prize – j/k), it’s always nice (especially if you’re up for one) that those who are voting take it so seriously (Keith Law included… even when he’s acting like a complete weenie on the radio).
I understand the push, and even the desire, to move into more statistical evidence when it comes to objectively evaluating talent, and, like most, I believe there is a happy medium that combines both it and historical avenues of scouting. The more information you have, the better choices you can make. And the better you can isolate that data, the better it will be for evaluation (FIP, UZR, WAR vs. ERA, W-L records, etc). I don’t think it means you can completely discard the old, but you can certainly incorporate the new with the old. I think that’s important in anything, baseball or otherwise.
That said, as a die-hard Cardinals fan – Carp and Wagonmaker got completely hosed. :-)
i almost made the Nobel Peace Price comment too :)
by guillermozeliak on Nov 20, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Every time I read a PD baseball editorial...
I have to stifle the urge to belittle, with all caps and personal attacks, the writer and every single person posting in the comments section. If we are baseball’s best and most knowledgable fans, I shudder at what Phillies fans talk about on the Inquirer’s website.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Nov 20, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions
I think that sounds like a challenge
I do not think I am man enough to take up that challenge though.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Don't ever stiffle
Just let if all out.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 22, 2009 3:01 AM EST up reply actions
Per, sidebar, the Giants are out on Holliday.
I’m wondering how nervous Boras is getting.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
so according to sources
both the Yankees and Giants are out. Does this make anyone else think that either the Yankees or Giants are going to end up signing Pie Boy?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
and Angels are out too
and I thought he was Nut Boy?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
there's a definite seedy theme here
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Depends upon how much he takes all of these tactical statements at face value
FWIW, I think the Cards are playing the Boras/Holliday situation pretty well.
by SouthsideCardsFan on Nov 20, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
who the hell is he going to pit MO against?
Has anyone stepped in and said they are going after Holliday? Last count, Giants, Angels, Mets (i think) had all said they were out and Yanks are just “keeping people honest” an not interested.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Cage Match question of the day
Mozeliak! Boras!
Fight!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
He managed to get the Dodgers to bid against themselves last year.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
No Joke
Who is ‘in’ on Holliday? Yankees, Giants, and Angels said they are out. I think Holliday is going to sign a lot less than we think. Like 5 year/s$90M or 6 years/$100M so Boras can say he got him $100M
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
you got any suggestions for me
for a hard drive for my very expensive paperweight?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
i looked on ebay and a 320GB HD for you laptop sold for under $70
Just do a search in ebay with you model #
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
that sounds easy
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
well I think installing a hard drive is like a 2 minute job
Should just be a panel underneath you remove. Take out Hard drive and install a new one. But do you know how to install windows?
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
i can handle that part
but the windows thing may be a problem, as well as my programs. Should I take this opportunity to upgrade to the new windows?
Also, I have a backup internal hard drive. how do I figure out which one is which? The backup has all of my files on it and I dont want to screw up and lose everything.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
the backup hardrive is most likely just a partion of the same hard drive
So you will lose your data if you take it out
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm getting 0 results on ebay
I think there is something odd about my actual model number (GS749UA) because everywhere I search there is nothing that matches that model number
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
i saw that one
I sent a message to the seller to make sure that it is compatible. So, do you have any suggestions for any way to recover the data before replacing the hard drive? When I perform a check on the 2 it says the first needs to be replaced and the second is fine. There are 3 of the removable tabs in the back and 2 of them are numbered. Do you think its possible that it could be as simple as 1 is the primary and 2 is the backup?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
your laptop has some kind of dual HD
That I don’t fully understand. I would just call HP tech support and ask them.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Replaced the fried HD
Stupid me, I never made recovery disks. I swear that I put the recovery disks on the backup HD, but I don’t have a clue how to get to them. According to Bestbuy’s geek squad, my only option is to contact HP and have them send me a set of recovery disks, if they have my model logged still. Any suggestions?
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
I Don't Believe...
…any team who says they’re out on Holliday. Everyone will take a sniff. But if he signs for 5/90, I hope we’re the ones to make that offer first.
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
i'm inclined to think everybody is onto Boras's game and they realize that it's not in anybody's interest
to be seen in a public bidding war. so everybody’s trying to tamp down this hype.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Agreed, and this pleases me.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
SIX YEARS LEAGUE MINIMUM
OPEN DEWALLET
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There's something sort of sad and pathetic about reading this in Burwell's column
I am not particularly outraged by any of this, but I am confused.
I mean, really? Confused? How patently obvious is it, in this day and in this age, that we should be beyond the idea that pitcher wins signify talent? If you are literally paid to understand and write about baseball and you STILL find this concept confusing, you are beyond saving. You are an idiot.
And how utterly sad is it that Burwell is willing to write this column? It saddens me for two reasons. First, because Burwell is essentially writing a column that, for intelligent and passionate baseball fans, might as well be titled “I don’t really know much about baseball, but I am going to write about it anyway,” yet another pathetic example of how sports journalism fails to hold itself to a reasonable intellectual standard. And second, it’s sad because there are so many people out there that are going to agree with him simply because he, like his brethren of Idiot Experts, are the voices they look to for baseball knowledge and they don’t know any better. And the misinformation and idiocy will continue to thrive. Wins falling by the wayside in Cy Young voting is a good sign, but articles like this are the tragic counterpoints to that change.
Or maybe I’m just in a bad mood this morning.
Moo Juice and Chocolate Chip Cookies...
…always keeps me in a good moood…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
What would the article look like if it was a different sitaution?
Let’s say that Waino was the one who had great peripherals and Lincecum had 19 wins, and then Lincecum gets the award.
Would we see an article from someone like Burwell saying, “This is ridiculous. Adam Wainwright was the better pitcher. So-called ‘advanced stats’ like FIP, SNLVAR, and WAR are readily available online and are clearly a better read of a pitcher’s talent. Everybody knows that Wins have more to do with the fielding and hitting by the rest of your teammates.”
Okay, so we probably wouldn’t see that from a guy like Burwell.
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
DanUp, excellent post as usual
Very clever how you wrote a piece about the effect of narrative in baseball evaluation, which was itself a very witty narrative far removed from the real world. I might even call that Meta.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Congrats to Mattybobo on breaking VEB in yesterdays thread!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
My mind is still blown
I think brackenthebox is actually a witch.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
HFS ®
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'm still honing my craft
If anyone can help me get rid of my profile photo, I could enhance the illusion.
Also, I’m fresh out of newt livers if anyone has some lying around.
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
you could just load a pic of a white screen, perhaps?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
the problem is that the content div isn't wide enough when you have a profile pic
That said, I think my witching days are done
for now
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
we actually get to burn someone?
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
this isn't the witch you're looking for
\hand-wave
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 12:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just kidding guys, Bracken isn’t a witch
nothing to see here
Albert Pujols does not have “down” years. He has “~6 WAR” years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the support mattybobo
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Don't be afraid
He’s just an HTML wizard
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
I know.
I’ll never be able to know what is actually happening now.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
watch the margins
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
your other right
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
the north side of your computer.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
turn around three times, first.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
now, do you have all of your belongings?
do you have a strange scar on your side?
if no, then the margin is over there.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
ya, that's what I could fix if I didn't have a profile pic
thwarted
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
The line isn't long enough either.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
by ClemsonGirl on Nov 20, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
ya, same fix
the container with the “comment” in it only extends to the left side of the icon, so I can’t put any content outside of that. Without an icon, the container goes all the way to the right margin, if that makes sense.
by brackenthebox on Nov 20, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
If we burn witches, then they must be made of wood, which floats when you throw it into a lake
What else floats other than wood?
/I know that’s a paraphrase, didn’t feel like having an entire back-and-forth or getting the words down verbatim
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
More hilarity from mlbtraderumors...
A new name on the Brewers’ radar as a “No. 5-type guy”: Todd Wellemeyer.
MB for LF in 2010!
BWAAAAHHHahahaha
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
This is the larger quote from John Heyman of SI:
• Brewers. They’ve looked into Lackey, Washburn, Doug Davis, Harden and Wolf plus possible No. 5-type guys Mark Mulder and Todd Wellemeyer. Mulder could reconnect with pitching coach Rick Peterson.
Hard to fathom… The dream rotation is of course Gallardo-Suppan-Mulder-Looper-Welly
MB for LF in 2010!
I wanna see how long it takes Gallardo to go all Carpenter on the GM/Manager if this happens
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
plus, who the hell "looks into" todd wellemeyer in november? afraid he's going to be snapped up by those clamoring for his services?
maybe in february if it looks like chris narveson is your 5th starter. but i might be just as happy to have narveson as welly.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
1. Get Welly & Mulder
2. Gallardo goes down with a labrum tear in April.
3. Entire rotation of crappy ex-Cardinals; Looper, Suppan, Welly, Mulder, Narveson
4. ?
5. Profit!
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
Not positive
But I think Looper’s a FA. Didn’t they just decline his option?
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 20, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
NNNnnnno.
Offseason Rumors : Me :: Unicorn Blood : Voldemort
by Cardinals645 on Nov 21, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions
He seems like the type of guy that would untuck his shirt
Can they sign Anthony Reyes, Jason Isringhausen, Randy Flores, and Jeff Fassero while they’re at it?
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
ron villone is a FA.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Pedro Borbon , Jr is still looking for a job
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
The Brewers, home to Zombie Cardinals
"But as the leadoff guy that inning, my job is to get on base and let guys drive me in." - Albert Pujols 8/20/09, base-clogger.
sadly they all have decent records against the Cards.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Typical Comic Book Plot Device....
…the enemy dies but then comes back as an eviler, undead and frightfully moore powerful version of him/her self. Watch: Wellemeyer will win all of 3 games for the Brewers next year, all vs us.
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
their game plan seems to be
1. Wait for Cardinals pitchers to wash out
2. Acquire them on the cheap
3. Run over catchers with sausages
4. ???
5. Profit!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I guess they're stuck on step four then.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I Would Pay....
…pay-per-view rates to watch Jason Marquis get run over repeatedly by sausages…
;=8)
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
That's what she...
said?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Nov 20, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's some messed up fanfiction right there.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
mostly the Jason Marquis part.
gah.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I know, right?
But maybe the fanfiction writer is writing a screenplay and Joachim Phoenix is gonna play him in the movie. He’s not the handsomest guy around but he’s at least a little less freaky than Marquis.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
damn it, I was going to start some carpentry work
but now I want to cast the movie of the Cardinals. 09, preferably.
I might be angering the GOB but I don’t quite know how…
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I did a fanpost of this idea a while ago
I think Michael Ironside would make a good Tony LaRussa:
Slap some sunglasses on him and grow his hair out a little to Prince Valiant length and it’s perfect.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
this post made my day.
please examine this — all MLB teams sorted by Pitching WAR. Brewers trail the other 29 with . . . 3.0 pitching WAR.
and their grand plan involves todd wellemeyer? awesome.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I wonder if that is historically bad...
Gallardo and Hoffman were worth 4.2 WAR. Everyone else -1.2.
They should flat out cut Suppan and give the rotation spot to the most promising Rule V kid.
MB for LF in 2010!
WOW.....
…our relief corp was worse than everyone except the Nats, Pirates and ’Stros? Were we really that bad??
:=8/
Big McLargehuge!
:=8O
my memory is telling me there were just some very, very bad losses
to offset the eventual consistency. Like, it took Jason Motte a whole lot of time to figure out he had to lose the goggles.
But that’s just my faulty memory.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
a little of it is that they pitched fewer innings, b.c we got the most innings from starters
mostly, yeah, our bullpen sucked.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
and not that way. they really did suck.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
but hey, question:
did they suck less than in the two previous years?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yes and no. last year, we were second worst.
in 2007, we were acceptable at about 10th worst.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
[gags]
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Mostly the problem was SP
their relievers had to pitch a TON of innings because the starters were so bad. Coffey, DiFelice, Hoffman (and one other guy, I can’t remember who) were pretty good from the pen. Trouble is, they gave a ton of innings to guys like McClung, Smith, Narveson and a bunch of other crappy long mean with sub-replacement level FIPs because guys like Suppan and Parra were frequently getting pulled after about 3 IP.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:33 AM EST up reply actions
This is really getting out of hand
This might just be a knee-jerk reaction to letting Thompson slip through their fingers
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
I'm imagining a Brewers-Royals bidding war for the services of Brad Thompson
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
time to panic!!
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
More Heyman idiocy:
• I have no problem with Tim Lincecum winning the Cy Young award, though I supported Chris Carpenter. But those two, plus Adam Wainwright, have to be the top three, no? The two voters who omitted Carpenter who led the league in ERA and winning percentage erred, I believe. The reasoning seemed to be about the slightly lower number of innings he pitched (Javier Vazquez had about 30 more innings). But I think the issue may also be the voters’ great emphasis of the strikeout. At least one ballot seemed to reflect gross strikeout total.
The two voters in question stated their reasoning on their websites. Is Heyman too lazy to read it for himself, or does “writing for your audience” mean you have to pretend that advanced stats don’t exist?
MB for LF in 2010!
Has a pitcher ever won the Cy after an injury-shortened season?
I can’t think of one.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
hmm...
the two that come to mind are Koufax in ’65 and Carp in ’04. Koufax hurt his arm in August, Carp in September.
MB for LF in 2010!
335 IP in an injury-shortened season.
Jesus fucking christ they don’t make em like they used to.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
and his arm fell off 2 years later.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
Oh wait I read the wrong one,
223 IP in 1964.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
1200 inning in 4 years.....
just sick.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
carp won in '05, though.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
And Carp was hurt in 04.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
right
the question was whether anyone ever won the award after not finishing the season. IE, carp in ’04.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
"Has a pitcher ever won the Cy after an injury-shortened season?"
Yes. Chris Carpenter.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I think the question meant
has a pitcher ever won the Cy FOR a season in which he was injured for part of it.?
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
Or are you interpreting the question as
“Has a pitcher ever won the CY for an injury shortened season?”
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
yeah
seems like too many pitchers have won one, following an injury injured season, for it to make sense.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
No, that's what I thought he meant...
Has a pitcher been significantly injured in year X, then won the Cy Young in year X+1.
Without spending a lot of time on BR, I couldn’t think of too many off the top of my head.
MB for LF in 2010!
I assumed he meant the other way
only because this is an injury shortened season for Carp so it is relevant to this year.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9782
was this Carroll’s defense? or did you see another article guayzimi…i was just curious b/c he really didnt say much in that article
by guillermozeliak on Nov 20, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah that's what I was referring to...
he basically says there’s little to differentiate those at the top, which I don’t disagree with.
MB for LF in 2010!
Something for, maybe, Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip
I was reading about how countless species are being pushed toward extinction by man's destruction of forests. Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us. - Calvin, Scientific Progress Goes "Boink", Watterson
I am okay with Lincecum getting the Cy
Or at least I was until I heard the Kieth Law interview that was posted above.
Kieth Law is a tool. It seems like he just wanted to look pretty and make sure who he thought should win did get the Cy.
Holliday.
Uh huh, oh yeah.
Holliday.
He will be so nice.
this is so wrong.
yet so right.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Photoshop a KC hat
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
As somebody who appreciates both sides of the statistical argument
Doesn’t a pitcher who intentionally embraces a pitching to contact philosophy deserve credit if he executes his pitches in such a manner as to succeed in that system? FIP measures Strikeouts, walks, homeruns right? Well if ERA is dependent on the teams defense, then if the team concept is to field a great defense and the pitcher takes advantage of that, then why should he be penalized?
I have read that Carpenter has bought into Dave Duncan’s pitching philosophy and, as a result has sacrificed strikeout totals in favor of efficiency. Well that would not be reflected in FIP as every non-strikeout not be reflected. However, his era would be indicative of his performance as related to the team in general.
If you are going to suck, you might as well try to kick (butt), like, Jesus Lizard, they suck, but they kick (butt)-Beavis
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Nov 20, 2009 3:20 PM EST reply actions
that's what I was attempting to say
except smrtr.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I think so.
But I also think Timmy should be rewarded for using his gameplan of striking people out if that’s how he thinks he can help his team the most. Basically I think any of the top three had a strong case to win and I am not upset from an unbiased standpoint at the winner.
As a Cardinals fan though I really wanted Wainwright to win.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I think any of the three deserved it
I figured Timmy would win… it’s mostly saddening to see the writers muddy it for him.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Exactly.
I don’t see why just because you are St. Louis sportswriter you automatically have to say Timmy didn’t deserve it because the other two in top three were Cardinals. I think it’s pretty obvious that all three deserved it but there’s only one award. Why not just say that?
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
Straussie did have an interesting tidbit
the SF sportswriters put Cards first on their ballot — and got hate mail.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
That is awful.
Why do people send hate mail? It makes me sad.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
because people suck, they are the worst
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 20, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Lincecum had the media on his side
and the K’s, but if you think about it, Waino or Carp deserved it more.
I think Lincecum won because of the media frenzy around him. He was talked about a lot more often than Carp or Waino, because in my mind, the Cards are a lot like Rodney Dangerfield – don’t get no respect. Waino had the wins, Carp had the ERA. I’d take either one of those over K’s – and the Cards made the playoffs, another factor I would’ve used if I could’ve voted, while the Giants didn’t.
Best moment I've ever seen at a game in person
"If it was Zoom Zoom'd, we'd be doom doom'd" - making fun of myself for my bad luck streak in the 2009 season
Looking forward to Cardinals baseball in 2010!
Do you really...
think wins, ERA, and team performance are the most important factors? Or are you yanking everyone’s chain?
MB for LF in 2010!
Lince did NOT have the media on his side
the Cardinals fest was the more compelling narrative. they ran it into the ground. it was Timmeh who got baked. er, shafted.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Off-topic thought...
Does anyone think that Jim Edmonds might make a good LF platoon partner for Allen Craig?
In 2008 he still hit righties quite well: .250/.362/.521 125OPS+ (with a .258 BABIP)
Plus he could help Coffee Roaster learn to play a better CF.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
I've been kind of afraid to mention it but I would love it if Jimmy came back for one last hurrah
Doubt he’d be interested though.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
+1
One of my all-time favorite Cardinals. I seem to remember that he and TLR patched things up sometime during the season. But I agree, I doubt he would come back.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
it was after the Mickey Mouse vs. Al interview
Jimmy refrained from taking a shot at Tony, and Tony showed up with some vino at the club.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Why would he not be interested?
A chance to pad his HOF resume. A chance to come back into the good graces of the hometown fans. And a chance to play for team that has a chance.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
because of Mickey Mouse!
keep up.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What's that whooshing sound?
Your comment just zipped over my head.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
sorry, haha
I couldn’t resist.
Jimmy plead the Home-and-Family defense in the above interview. He said he missed the grass…. being away from his family, not so much.
Meanwhile Al kept him talking while there was a baseball game and Jimmy’s son wanted to go see Mickey Mouse.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I either drank too much that night
or I missed the game. Or both, I suppose. I have no recollection of this interview.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
this is why I obsessively document everything in game threads
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/9/18/1037208/game-148-overflow-thread#21411846
and read down. waaaayyyy down.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
fuck, I'm gonna have to put this in the glossary, don't I.
oh wait, no… I might still be the only one using it.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I was there with ya man,
and Danup referenced it in the title….your good
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
I'll watch for references
my criteria is already pretty tight.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Thanks for being obsessive
I remember now that I was watching that game in a bar and couldn’t hear the announcers.
P.S. I’m all over the glossary. It’s my favorite.
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
I see
If the Cards don’t end up with Holliday I would like to see them try to lure Jimmy back. Maybe an offer might change his mind…
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
i'm inclined to think jimmy is no longer well enough to play the field.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I can't imagine that one year off
would make it impossible for him to man LF. No way I want him playing CF but I think that he would still be better than even Lego out there.
"I learned a long time ago if you keep checking your stats all year, you're going to end up in the toilet." - Chris Carpenter, 2009.
He might not be in great shape though
but he’ll end up in the Best Shape Of His Life in spring training somehow.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
while it was just one year's numbers, his 08 UZR in CF was poor. we had talked in 2007 about him
losing several steps. add in an off-year and the fact that he’s 39 — no, i don’t think that’s a good idea.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Yeah, it would probably be a very bad baseball idea
But emotionally it would be awesome… for a while. And then he’d probably start showing how old he is and people would just want him to quietly not play anymore. And then it would get all sad and awkward.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
matty you sound like you've already scored this film
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I want it to happen a little more than is realistic.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
then Dan Haren rides in at the end and forgives us all, but it's too late?
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Who the fuck is Dan Haren?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
a nihilist symbol
the epitome of nothingness. he would redeem our souls, but we don’t have them anymore.
then, finis.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Nov 20, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Apparently this is an Ingmar Bergman movie or something
I like it though.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
haren would try to strike out death in a single at-bat in this scenario.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I'd rather death ground out weekly to Pujols.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
that doesn't win our souls back.
it just means we all come back as sea turtles.
death is a bit of a fascist and thus sees strikeouts as the answer.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Why weekly? Why not every at-bat?
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We all become gingers?
I don’t like that ending.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
Say what you want about the tenants of National Socialism dude, but at least it's an ethos
Not afraid to nitpick
Dude and the preferred nomenclature
Is Asian-American, not Chinamen.
These guys didn’t build the f-ing railroad man, they peed on my rug.
*sigh* I would love that too. I don't even care if he's old and ends up sucking.
I kind of feel bad that he wasn’t here this year to straighten Ank out.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
i mean if Omar Visquel can still play why not Jimmy
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
exactly! except for what mattybobo said above.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
He's maybe my favourite all-time Cardinal
so, for sentimental reasons, yes. However, I think he’d mostly suck if he came back now. He hasn’t hit except for one half-season in Wrigley in about 4 years, and I’m pretty sure he’d not be a great defender, even in LF, now. Plus I think he’s kinda burned his bridges with some comments made when he was with the Cubs.
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:37 AM EST up reply actions
there were two Cardinals starters in the running for the Cy
and that’s what it comes down to me. both were very deserving of this, and both got screwed. i am a baseball fan, but more than anything, i am a Cardinals fan. and when they are in the running for anything, and don’t win, that pisses me off & disappoints me. more than that little bitch law trying to prove he’s the smartest asscaptain on the planet, more than carroll who’s supposed to know better than leaving one of his selections completely blank. when my guys on my team don’t win, i get angry & i’m not a happy camper.
Timmy faded down the stretch, Carp missed a month with a bad side, and Wagonmaker was all screwed up at the start of the season till Carp fixed him. so all three weren’t unstoppable all season long. imho it is inexcusable the little bitch & carroll left Carp off their ballots. they only did it to be different & try & prove they know more about baseball than anyone else. and because of that, Carp was screwed out of a much deserved pat on the rump.
i am a Cardinals fan first & foremost. and my boys got hosed. you can stuff your sorrys in a sack & shove all the stats in the world up your ass. that’s all that matters to me. when it’s all said & done, at the end of the day when the cows come home, Carp & Wagonmaker were screwed.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
by gdm426 on Nov 20, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
what is interesting
is that even if they’d both put Carp on the ballot instead of their Vazquez / votes, he still wouldn’t have won. Or tied.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
every article i read said if he was 1st or 2nd on them he would have tied or won
and i think i’ve read everything everyone else has read
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
yes, I'm saying
the other two pitchers were ranked 2nd and 3rd. so if they gave those 2nd and 3rd votes to Carp, he still wouldn’t have won.
the order of rank would have to be different on one person’s ballot to make a difference. that’s how close it was.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i'm trying to figure out how one gets one and not the other.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Now I'm just confused
The word “rump” is funny. Heh.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
reread guayzimi's
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I went out for dinner last night to pick up a sub
The guy at the cash register was making small talk with me, as he saw my Cardinals hat on. He said, “Two of your boys finished in the top three of the Cy Young.” I explained that I thought Lincecum was the right choice, but then it hit me. This past season, we had the best hitter in baseball, two of the best three pitchers in the NL, another hitter who is in the top 5-10% of the league, and couldn’t win a single playoff game.
I think that realization is what bummed me out more than the fact that Wainwright or Carp didn’t win the Cy.
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't give an eff about these awards.
I’ll take 2006 ten times out of ten.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
by Alxfritz on Nov 20, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
coitus interruptus is a bummer
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yeah the whole season has left a terrible taste in my mouth
now this is just the crap ice cubes in my shitty pop/soda drink
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
And yet 2009 >>>>>>>>> 2007 & 2008
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
I take solace knowing that the cardinals, no matter how disappointing, will never be the cubs
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
IF
Wainwright had one of Timmy’s first place votes they both would have had 95 points.
If Carp had one of his second place votes they both would have had 97 points.
If either of them had on of his joints, no one would have cared.
by Evilfrog on Nov 20, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
Rec'd for point #3
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
a rec
a rec for evil
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
poor Nats
the good news is, that columnist who I guess hates baseball (no, not Adam Dunn) won’t be covering their beat anymore.
the bad news is, Strasburg’s knee Made a Sound.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Do Nats fans have any blood left to come out when they slash their wrists?
Or are they more like a pack of hungry zombies that crave the brains and right arms of middling relief pitchers?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
KIIIIIIPPPP..... WEEELLLLLLSSSSSS.....
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:41 AM EST up reply actions
I know that Tim Lincecum is a great pitcher
I know that he had probably a more valuable year than Carpenter and Wainwright.
But, I’m a Cardinals fan first and it’s fucking bullshit that a guy with LESS 1st place votes can win over a guy with more first place votes. The electoral college is more straight forward than that noise.
And, Lincecum wasn’t Steve Carlton. He didn’t have one of the greatest seasons ever. So, to have him win the award with the fewest team victories in which he started is ridiculous. Wins are a team stat but at what point do we say enough is enough? 12 wins? 10 win Cy Young winner?
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions
-1
Wins just aren’t a good tool to evaluate pitchers. There really is that much noise. One could be a great pitcher with 9 wins or an average one with 18. It makes no sense to have a baseline for useless metric.
Free Milton
No, they aren't a good tool
But the have been used for 40+ years. And Tim Lincecum just became the baseline for win total for a Cy Young winner.
I’m not saying we should give the award to the pitcher with the most wins, but in a vote this close he was given the award even though fewer people thought he was the best pticher in the NL.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2009 5:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
These are separate issues
The voting process is one thing. Saying that wins should be used based on the fact that they have been used for 40+ years despite admitting that they aren’t a good tool is completely different.
“Fuck this word processing software, man. Give me a typewriter and some white out 8 days a week.”
“Typewriter? Fucking nerd. Movable type is way real scribes scribe.”
Free Milton
I know you really want to scream at the wind
But you are mischaracterizing my point to be snide. Good luck with.
As a Cardinals fan, it is simple upsetting that two of our starters cancelled each other out in the Cy Young only to have another pitcher back into the award.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2009 5:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I buy that they split the vote
But necessitating a baseline of motherhumping pitching Wins in order to justify our guys is weak.
Free Milton
It just bothers me that in 2006 wins gave Webb the nod
Over Carp, but in this situation the rules have all changed. Now its ok to only Win 15 games and have a lower ERA+.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2009 5:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
i can see that.
on the other hand, i think it’s better to be intellectually honest than to promote homerism.
the shoe’s going to be on the other foot someday. i think we’re going to look silly if we complain loudly about wins being our benchmark this year, then in 2012 we have to complain that wainwright is getting screwed out of his Cy because Kershaw got better run support from the Dodgers, or whatever the scenario.
see the great “but you shouldn’t get the MVP if your team didn’t make the playoffs” campaign for albert pujols, ca. 2006.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
This is something I really agree with.
Aren’t we the ones who’ve really gotten screwed by writers not paying enough attention to stats when awarding their MVP’s and GG’s?
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Park adjusted, Webb was pretty clearly tops in 2006 in almost everything
More innings, better ERA+, better FIP/tRA….everything.
Not afraid to nitpick
it's still used for haemochromatosis sufferers
Felonius Monk - bitching to contact since 2008
by Felonius_Monk on Nov 23, 2009 7:47 AM EST up reply actions
so, you're okay with giving carp the cy with 17 wins, but giving it to tim linececum with 15 is not?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i was replying to this.
Wins are a team stat but at what point do we say enough is enough? 12 wins? 10 win Cy Young winner?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
I can't speak for Hardcore,
so I can’t argue to what exactly he was refering to. For the record, I think there’s a big difference between 15 and 17
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Big difference? Really?
Considering the amount of cheap wins and tough losses the guys face over a season?
For the record, Carp got 3 “Cheap Wins” and 2 “Tough losses”. Lincecum got 0 Cheap Wins and 4 Tough Losses. (What are the definitions of these stat? Arbitrary, of course – cheap wins = wins in quality starts. Tough losses = losses in quality starts.)
You must think that Verlander had a VASTLY superior season to Cliff Lee, since he had FIVE!!!! more Wins. And still head and shoulders above Grienke who only had 16, the scrub.
Free Milton
I would feel better about myself
saying I won 17 games, rather than 15, which is my only point of reference.
I assume “cheap wins” are actually wins in non-quality starts?
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Yes, sorry for the typo
And let’s hope our kids will laugh at us for talking seriously about w/l records
Free Milton
I often wonder what baseball conversations will be like with my son
(still any day now!)
Mizzou 37 - Illinois 9
Hopefully you'll get to compare the careers of AJ and Albert Pujols to Bobby and Barry Bonds
This of course means that the son is going to be even awesomer than the father.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
That was my point
And the only reason I brought up wins is because Lincecum is now the outlier in that catagory. And while his season was great, it was not of the caliber I would normally associate with setting a precedent.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2009 5:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
pitcher wins are dropping like a brick throughout the league.
we didn’t have a single 20-game winner this year or last, iirc. it’s just changes in pitcher durability and usage. you’re going to see the number of wins for a cy young winner decline because the total number of wins is declining. since 2003, the cy has only once gone to a 20-game winner in the NL, while that was once pretty much the norm.
giving the award to someone other than the winningest pitcher is not unprecedented.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Also, FWIW...
if you are going to make the (flawed) argument that Lincecum shouldn’t win the award based on the fact his team had the fewest team victories in games which he started, you would be erroneous:
Cards in ADAM starts: 23-11
Giants in games Lincecum started: 19-13
Cards in Carp starts: 18-10
Free Milton
Hello, Bryan Burwell
(I am a Giants fan and I come in peace.)
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
Ya, we've been ripping on that
most of the morning.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
all 406 comments?
that seemsunreasonable
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
ALL OF IT.
Really just skim until you see everyone bashing Burwell. Then start reading. If I could do that nifty linking to a specific comment thing I would.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
right click the date/time
that’s your link
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/11/20/1166269/joe-jackson-talks-briefly-to-a#25892382
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
that's how we roll
he should be glad it’s not 1000
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
yesterday was close & i wasn't even there
it’d be well over a grand if i was
but considering he’s a los gigantes fan, he’s probably used to it. they are some chatty kathy’s over at mccovey chronicles
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
well, to be fair
He did have one of the “best seasons ever”. By ERA+, at least, Lincecum had the 118th best season of all time.
(OTOH, Carp was #67th “best of all time” this year).
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
let me fix your post.
SleepyCA: Well, to be fair, he did have one of the "best seasons ever". By ERA+, at least, Lincecum had the 118th best season of all time. . . .
SleepyCA’sEvilTwin: Ima let you finish not-evil twin, but carpenter had one of the greatest seasons by ERA+ of all time. OF ALL TIME!!!!
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Nov 20, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Tim Lincecum should not have won the Cy Young....
because she’s the ugliest girl I’ve ever seen.
Get a fucking haircut already.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 20, 2009 5:12 PM EST reply actions
Fuck that
I would probably kill for Lincecum’s head of hair. Well, maybe not kill, but I would go as far as a serious maiming.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
This is the best point anyone has made all day.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
i haven't cut my hair since march & it's not even half as long as his is
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
be glad you don't live
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions
That was in America too.
I was invited. I rejected the invited.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
So it's now International Kick a Ginger Day?
Upgrade!
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Is that a winking frowny face?
What emotion does that even represent?
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 21, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Keith Law
fancies himself a sabermetrician, but relies on VORP for one of his leading arguments? VORP? You fucking kidding me?
Of course, hope means being cut down on some street corner, as you run like mad, by a random bullet.
yeah, that was so, like, 2008
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
Law just didn't want a Cardinal to win
He was trying to find anything he could to back it up (Carp not being on his ballot). The guy has an agenda. Listen to his interview with Randy Karraker. He was grasping at straws and was smug in the process.
Boy a frosty cold Budweiser would be great about now"…long pause…then an "aahhh". --Mike Shannon
Because, of course, more modern valuation stats were much more favorable to the Cardinals.
Oh wait, no.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
For what it's worth
tRA WAR has Carpenter slightly ahead.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 20, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
he was just being a homer
I guess he got his vote writing for an atlanta newspaper affiliate, so he needed to vote for the atlanta guy. Then he tried to justify it.
No different from what most of us are doing for our guys, except his vote mattered. Lol.
it's Clydesdales vs Goats. Actually sums up Cards vs. Cubs quite nicely. -all4tookie
check it out
from uniwatch. yes, on topic for VEB.
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
dude, nobody is clicking on a link marked "beavers."
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
i was hoping spants might, actually
"It was like two ankles." AVENGE BOOG
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
I'd say about 90% of the links I click on are somehow marked "beaver"
Isn’t that what the tubes are for?
Free Milton
I love how the Uniwatch guys get so giddy about the awesome throwback stuff.
Also, Beavers on Bats? That doesn’t just win the thread, that wins like, the entire internet. For a year.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Nov 20, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
VEB strikes again?
Keith Law’s most recent tweet: Someone in Ashland, Missouri, just tried to find my home phone number and address in an online database. (I got an alert.)
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
PD I would say.
"Everyone in here comes to the yard ready to play every day. I’ll take this group, any day until the day I die."
"This whole Cardinals thing.....I don’t know if you guys are a believer, but I’m a believer."
~ Ryan F. Ludwick
by RiverRat on Nov 20, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice PD takedown.
Rec’d.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Yep
In retrospect, the subject should have read “Brian Burwell strikes again?”
"I knew they were up to shenanigans." --TLR
Oh people.
Sometimes I wonder how I have the courage to leave my home.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
If Keith Law has nothing to hide,
then why doesn’t he just publish his address and phone number on Twitter?
I’m just asking questions…
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
I really hope you are joking because
I have no doubt that there are people out there crazy enough to do something stupid with that information. He has a young child and a wife. Some crackpot from who knows where doesn’t need his address.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
twas a South Park/Glenn Beck reference.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
haven't seen that episode
thanks for the clarification
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
This is right.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Ashland is just outside Columbia...
but I swear it wasn’t me.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
It was Flim
Using one of his substitute IP addresses
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 20, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
that's clever thinkin'
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Hey!
Just the other day I wrote how I was against all this internet hate machine. I wrote a nice long post about it. Much worst stuff is happening to an editor over at the STL Post Dispatch.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 20, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair,
He has his own home address and phone # (still) posted in the resume section of his personal blog
Free Milton
If anyone here watches Forensic Files
my bro-in law is on tonight’s 9 oclock (CST) episode.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Oh, he's the criminal.
TWIST!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
not really.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Yeah...
ever since my bro in law won 1/2500 of a nobel peace prize family dinners have been hard to bear.
MB for LF in 2010!
I keep telling you people that marriage is a bad, bad thing
but does anyone ever listen to me? Nooooo.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
i was that bro in law while i was in RE school
trust me, it’s no picnic for him either
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Oh, I know that.
But he’s done some questionable things that make me want to smack him. And he’s staying rent-free, but not really helping out around the house. If he’d just stay out of my hair, it would be fine.
On the plus side, the hubby has poker on Friday, so BIL is taking me out to shoot pool.
Now with extra feisty!
i say smack him
when i did that i cleaned up & bought food & everything. i was the model house guest & stayed out of their hair
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Oh my goodness. I've had a similar experience and mine was not positive.
When I was first married, my husband invited my sister to live with us, without asking me first, in a misguided attempt to show both of us he was making an effort to get along with my family. My sister and I don’t really get along. If he’d had any fucking sense he would have known there’s no way in hell I want to live with any of my family members again, or at least thought to ask me first. She finally moved out after almost a year. That was not a good year.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
Yes, one of many.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
My wife is watching Royal Tennenbaums in the basement.
I’m drinking cider and rum in my office. Marriage works!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Space is key.
If you don’t go away, how can I miss you?
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
in this example
liz is my dog and i am my feet.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
THAT'S THE LAST TIME YOU STICK A KNIFE IN ME.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Are you or aren't you???
Dying? Yeah.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
You both have good taste.
Royal Tennenbaums is easily in my top 10 and rum creates happy.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
your opinion just backs up my argument
since you are, you know, EVIL!!!
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
come on they give eveyone those things now
even american idol contest winners
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
is that in peace, economics, chemistry? do i get to pick?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
Sweet Love Making!
Or even Bat Flipping would be nice.
by Tom_Lawless_Bat_Flip on Nov 20, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
Or bat flipping
after love making?
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
That's a funny mental picture.
“Yeah, I just hit the shit out of that.”
/flip
/slow trot around the bedroom
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
by andi_k on Nov 20, 2009 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
alright, how'd you get a hold of that tape?
she said she erased it!
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
It's all over the internet now. So sorry.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
well that explains while i'm in the basement on another friday
you make one celebratory trot around the room after giving a girl the best 30seconds of her life & you’re blacked balled for life
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Maybe she wanted to teach you humility
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
I did not know blow-up dolls could operate a video camera
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I present you the Nobel prize in TWSS
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 21, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
I won mine for awesomeness.
and humility.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Is SBN being super slow for anyone else?
Like it takes forever to post a comment and z through.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
nope, it must just be a ginger thing
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I'm not a ginger.
We’ve been through this. I am obviously blonde. Evidence happens everyday on here.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
I could have swore the beard looked gingerish
I take it back. This is not the first time I have been mistaken.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
No.
I think it was Chris Duncan’s beard but I might be wrong.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
no, it was liza minelli
zing.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a ginger and it's fine!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
(I'm also a ginger)
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Mind blown, yet again
That’s been happening a lot today
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
must not be married.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
One more time? I must have missed it the first time.
That’s awful, but I’m laughing.
"She gone! Airplane time! Airplane Time!! AIRPLANE TIME." Boog
"I think those scorers must be from Mars or Venus. Or maybe they're just from that book." --Mike Shannon, 7/09/2009
one time too many my internet friend
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
is that a taste of honey’s new search engine?
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
just tried it
searched for “hot fuzz”
and it searched for “call christine and sing her your favorite taylor swift song 513 240 5261”
i think i just might
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Mine said
Copy this message into mystery google until an mlia mission comes up, good luck comrade.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
mine said
Mystery Google is not a toilet. Wouldn’t even take me to a search page.
Lighten up, Francis - Sergeant Hulka
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Nov 20, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Happy Fakesgiving Eve, VEB!
Almost forgot!
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
So I'm watching the Countdown to the 25 Days of Christmas
and Roger Dorn from Major League is in the movie and guess who’s playing on the Thanksgiving football game? The Cleveland Browns. WIN.
Who needs affection when you can have blind hatred?
damn you
quicker to the draw than I. f’in gdm.
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Famous Bar
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Friendlys.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Barneys
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
DD's on hampton?
I’ve never been to Malles, though I can almost see it from my deck. Again, too intimidated.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
no, d's place is in soulard. nevermind
why would malles be intimidating? it’s just a small hole in the wall. the only thing that was weird the few times i was there was at around 1:30am each night two russian sounding dudes came in for a drink & exchanged envelopes with the bar tenders. i assumed that happened all the time though. no one else acted like it was a big deal.
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
Hole in the wall places intimidate me.
You need to be with a regular when you go, that way you have an in and just aren’t some dude.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
A bar called "Males" sounds like a place I don't want to go
And, in a related story, this week marked the 5,000th performance of the Broadway musical "Cats." It also marked the 5,000th time a guy turned to his wife and said, "What the hell is this?"
by jd is legend on Nov 21, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Prety sure he meant Malles.
Although with Gdm…
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
now that you mention it, there weren't too many single ladies there
pretzels pretzels pretzels pretzels
lemmons
we’ll get you in there one of these days
"on gameday it says duke loves to face the four seamer and hates to face the four seamer" -VolsnCards5
"perhaps it's a computer joke about the duality of man." -tom s.
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Nov 20, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
that place is intimidating.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
how is lemon's intimidating
really smokey, 20 something white kids, overpriced, bad music
seems like every other bar
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
just seems like a place you need to be a regular at.
There’s another place close to my house (The Mack) that I want to go to more often, but feel like I need to be a regular to do so.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
ahh yeah i've gotten that vibe at the mack too
my new haunting is over by tower grove south on morgan ford (The Amsterdam)
good drink specials, no smoking, lots of sports (oodles of soccer)
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
We have probably seen each other before then.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
I tend to go out later
then go to a 3AM bar after
it’s rare I drink before 11
If you ever want a good 3AM though I can’t recommend Sandrino’s enough(Arsenal and Brannon). The service sucks, but they have a full kitchen open until 3, and I’ve never had to wait on a seat, or stand in a crowd
/just remembered
They have a pool table in their upstairs lounge too
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
that is damn close to my house and I've never heard of it
or is that across the street from the trophey room?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
that's the place
the foods good too (if you can taste through the smoke)
me and my buddies are pretty certain it’s an old mob hangout
strange architecture and lighting, and the basements been soundproofed
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
and yeah it's accross from trophey room
"There's a lot of things we say that don't make sense to our viewers. Okay, primarily me." ~Al Hrabosky~
by YesWeOquendo on Nov 20, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
it shall be checked out.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Is your BiL a regular?
I wouldn’t go without a regular.
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
Where did you go then?
"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon
First, we went to
another bar on Gravois that my BiL knew (from driving by) had a pool table. It’s called the Lucky Duck and turns out it’s a Bosnian bar. There were a handful of guys there, and the music was all Bosnian music. They all sing along to the songs! It was kinda charming, really clean, and had a decent bar table. Sadly, the bartender couldn’t make a White Russian.
We played a few games there and then I remembered The Mack so we drove over there, but while driving by, couldn’t see a table. So I remembered that you suggested Famous Bar. Had to Google it to find the address. Decent little place, but the live music was kinda shitty.
Now with extra feisty!